Seriously, this is more fun than any reality show.
The war of conference realignment has reached full-scale, as the major conferences are all carefully plotting their next moves. What happens over the next few months could definitely change the landscape of college football (imagine the bowl realignments with 16-team conferences). But before we take a glimpse at the possibilities out there, let's definitely get one thing straight.
The expansion talk is completely football-centered. If this was about basketball, Kansas and Iowa State wouldn't be in the sticky situations they are in right now. If the Pac-10 takes six teams, and the Big 10 grabs Nebraska and Missouri, then Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and either Baylor/Colorado (we'll get to that later) are out of the loop with no place to go.
Okay, now on to the guessing games.
The latest from the Pac-10 is that they are inviting Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. While this would be a huge move for the Pac-10, it does lead to a few questions. How will Texas fans like potential kickoffs starting at 9 PM Central time? The travel issues are definitely out there for the Texas schools. Secondly, it also seems that Texas A&M, if given a choice, would much rather join the SEC than the Pac-10.
The third issue is the potential power struggle, as Texas legislators are pushing for Baylor to replace Colorado in the Pac-10's expansion ideas. Colorado is the much better fit for the conference, but this is part of what could be a tug-of-war for political clout for the new Pac-10. The state of Texas, having a large population base and a lot of economic clout, is used to getting their way conference-wise. No question, the Big 12 is dominated politically by the Texas schools, along with some clout from Oklahoma. However, the West Coast schools, especially those in California, are not going to let Texas completely run the show. The same goes if Texas were to head to the Big 10 or SEC, which is why Texas would like best if the Big 12 stayed together.
Meanwhile, the Big 10 would love to reach way down south and grab Texas, but chances are they'll go with Missouri and Nebraska, along with a raid of the Big East. Missouri is a great move in terms of grabbing a new Midwest fan base, and Nebraska brings additional football credibility. Teams like Rutgers and Syracuse would provide a larger East Coast influence that would really put the conference in more televisions across the country.
While the politics of expansion are much more toned down in the Big 10, the interesting wild cards in the picture could be Iowa State and Kansas. Kansas would carry the Kansas City area more than Missouri, so there is a metro fan base there, and the Jayhawks would fit in well in the Big Ten's basketball hotbed. Iowa State doesn't bring much of a fan base, but pressure from the powers that be in Iowa might help the Cyclones find a new home. After all, the ACC wasn't looking at Virginia Tech at the start of their most recent expansion, but Virginia politicians carried the day.
The next steps come from the SEC, who is not going to sit and do nothing, and the ACC, who could throw a deeper dent into the Big East if the SEC comes in and snags Clemson and Florida State. I seriously wouldn't be surprised if Baylor ended up grabbing a Pac-10 slot, but not from Colorado, rather from Texas A&M, who'd join the SEC. And, if the Big 12 collapses completely, the Mountain West is sure to jump and pick the pieces. Regardless, this has definitely brought some excitement to the collegiate summer!
June 9, 2010
Anthony Brancato:
Maybe all this will lead to a set rotation of non-conference games for each team, much like the rotation of out-of-division games the NFL has observed since 2002.
That way, strength-of-schedule differences could be minimized so greatly that if a true national-championship playoff tournament is ever implemented, its teams can be selected (and seeded) strictly by record.
For all we know, this is being contemplated with that very goal in mind.