Dream.14 Recap and May 2010 UFC Rankings

It's always a momentous weekend in mixed martial arts when the biggest U.S. promotion and the biggest Japanese promotion hold major events within 24 hours of each other. UFC 114, featuring Rashad Evans and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, was hyped as the biggest grudge match in history, and Dream.14 gave us a new chapter in the Sakuraba vs. Gracie rivalry.

In the main event of UFC 114, Evans established the tone early with a punch that staggered Jackson, and controlled the first two rounds by keeping Rampage on the defensive with his wrestling and his speed. Jackson was totally ineffective in striking exchanges, with Evans darting in and out in a way reminiscent of Lyoto Machida's victory against Rashad himself. In the third frame, Jackson had Rashad in trouble, but Evans rebounded to score a pair of late takedowns and secure a unanimous decision.

With Evans back in title contention, I'm really questioning how valuable it is for fighters to cut weight or switch divisions in MMA. Fëdor Emelianenko is the best heavyweight on the planet, but he's tiny for that weight class, and easily could make 205; he's the smaller fighter every time he steps into the ring. Evans wrestled at 174 pounds in college and could almost certainly cut to middleweight, but he's top-three at 205. Jake Shields, a Strikeforce champion at middleweight, will probably be fighting in the UFC's welterweight division by the end of the year. Frankie Edgar could definitely make 145, and has fended off frequent recommendations that he cut to featherweight, but last month he defeated B.J. Penn to capture the UFC's lightweight title.

In nearly every weight division, you can point to the champion of a major organization who is fighting at a heavier weight than he needs to. I wonder if we're witnessing the beginning of a trend: fighters preferring the benefits of not having to cut weight to the advantage gained by being larger than your opponent.

In other action on the UFC card, Michael Bisping easily won a decision over Dan Miller, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira won a terrible split decision over Jason Brilz to move one step closer to a title shot at 205. John Hathaway and Dong Hyun Kim scored upsets over Diego Sanchez and Amir Sadollah, respectively, while the Todd Duffee hype machine ended with a single punch, when tubby Mike Russow, way behind on the scorecards, connected to the jaw and knocked him out.

The most disappointing fight, the Nogueira/Brilz decision notwithstanding, was Efrain Escudero vs. Dan Lauzon. Escudero, the lightweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter Season Eight, won an easy decision, but he looked awful. Lauzon reportedly paid so little attention to his training that his coaches and his brother, fellow UFC lightweight Joe Lauzon, refused to travel with him or corner him. He was visibly tired by the second round, and presumably will now be cut from the UFC. But at no point did Escudero make much effort to finish his outclassed and underprepared opponent, instead dancing around à la Anderson Silva.

Escudero looked like he didn't take his last fight seriously, and he clearly didn't take this one seriously. I don't know if he's bought into his own hype, if he's more interested in showboating than fighting, or if he just went easy on Lauzon because they're friends, but I don't think he can compete with most of the UFC lightweight division. Escudero looked great against Phillipe Nover and Cole Miller, but he's really taken a step backward in 2010.

Big Picture and May Rankings

Evans will now take on Mauricio "Shogun" Rua for the Light Heavyweight title, and the winner could conceivably face Nogueira in his first title defense. Rampage Jackson's future is less clear. He still has a beef with the UFC, and he should be at least two victories from another title shot. His power demands the respect of any opponent, but Jackson has become a one-dimensional boxer with obvious weaknesses. The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Fëdor Emelianenko or Gilbert Melendez on these lists.

Heavyweight (206-265)

1. Cain Velasquez
2. Shane Carwin
3. Brock Lesnar
4. Junior Dos Santos
5. Roy Nelson
6. Frank Mir
7. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
8. Ben Rothwell
9. Mirko Filipovic
10. Cheick Kongo

Make it Happen: Velasquez vs. Anyone

Cain's last match, in February, lasted 2:20. He could be fighting right now, but instead he'll probably be out of action until at least August (and probably later) because the UFC doesn't want to risk a fluke loss before he takes on the winner of Carwin/Lesnar. As far as Lesnar's third-place ranking, I know he's the champ, but he's been out of action for a year, and I don't see him beating Carwin. Brock is finally fighting someone his own size, with a wrestling pedigree that may be able to keep the fight standing. If their bout turns into a striking war, Carwin is light years ahead of Lesnar. Even if Brock gets past Carwin, I don't see him beating Velasquez.

Thank You, UFC, For: Dos Santos vs. Nelson

At least JDS won't be on the shelf for half a year. This bout is not official yet, but it's rumored for UFC 117.

Light Heavyweight (186-205)

1. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
2. Lyoto Machida
3. Rashad Evans
4. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
5. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
6. Jon Jones
7. Thiago Silva
8. Forrest Griffin
9. Ryan Bader
10. Randy Couture

Make it Happen: Nogueira vs. winner of Rich Franklin/Chuck Liddell

Throw a bone to the old guys and make this a top contender's match. If the winner of Franklin/Liddell gets past Nogueira, give him a title shot. The UFC is bringing Jones and Bader along gradually, which I support. Machida, Jackson, and Silva are all coming off losses and should get a couple wins under their belts before they're back in contention. Griffin was knocked out in two of his last three fights and won a split decision in the third. Couture might die if he faces top-five competition.

Thank You, UFC, For: Couture vs. James Toney

This figures to be a rude introduction to MMA for the former boxing champion.

Middleweight (171-185)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Yushin Okami
4. Vitor Belfort
5. Nate Marquardt
6. Demian Maia
7. Yoshihiro Akiyama
8. Wanderlei Silva
9. Alan Belcher
10. Michael Bisping

Make it Happen: Belfort vs. winner of Wanderlei/Akiyama

This is a generous ranking for Anderson Silva. I'm not sure he should be listed at all, because he's not really a fighter any more. I actually felt he should have lost to Maia. I had Silva winning the first two rounds, of course, but I scored the third 10-10, and I had Maia winning the fourth and fifth, including 10-8 in the final round, for a 48-47 victory.

Thank You, UFC, For: Nothing

Why are Marquardt and Okami scheduled to fight middle-of-the-division opponents? They should be facing Belfort, or each other, to set up a top contender. I guess I'm grateful for the rumored Maia/Belcher showdown, at least.

Welterweight (156-170)

1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Jon Fitch
3. Thiago Alves
4. Paulo Thiago
5. Josh Koscheck
6. Dan Hardy
7. Matt Hughes
8. Dong Hyun Kim
9. John Hathaway
10. Ricardo Almeida

Make it Happen: Hathaway vs. Kim

An intriguing matchup of undefeated fighters rising in the crowded welterweight division, this would pit 13-0 Hathaway, who is now 4-0 in the UFC, against the 13-0-1 Kim, who is technically undefeated after his 2009 split decision loss to Karo Parisyan was overturned because Parisyan failed a drug test. If the UFC doesn't want a guaranteed derail for one of its rising stars, Mike Swick or Hardy might make sense. This is probably the UFC's deepest division right now.

Thank You, UFC, For: Hughes vs. Almeida

This fight is not official yet, but it has Hughes fighting a legit opponent, and gives Almeida a chance to work his way up in the division by defeating a legend.

Lightweight (146-155)

1. B.J. Penn
2. Frankie Edgar
3. Kenny Florian
4. Gray Maynard
5. Tyson Griffin
6. George Sotiropoulos
7. Kurt Pellegrino
8. Jim Miller
9. Joe Stevenson
10. Takanori Gomi

Make it Happen: Winner of Sotiropoulos/Pellegrino vs. Winner of Griffin/Evan Dunham

Sean Sherk isn't ranked here because he hasn't fought in over a year and isn't scheduled to do so any time soon. If he ever gets back into action, he's presumably top-10.

Thank You, UFC, For: Florian vs. Maynard

This fight is not official yet, but it's going to happen.

UFC 115 is right around the corner, scheduled for June 12. The headlining fight pits UFC Hall of Famer Chuck Liddell (+110) against former Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin (-140). The matchup is unlikely to have serious title implications, but it's a nice fight for fans, pitting two legends against one another. Liddell has lost four of his last five and hasn't fought in over a year, so Franklin is rightfully the favorite, but Liddell has one-punch knockout power and can never be counted out. I'm picking Franklin and rooting for a good fight.

Another "for the fans" matchup pits Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic against fellow kickboxer Pat Barry. Neither is a contender at this point, but that's pretty close to guaranteed fireworks, and a head-kick knockout is probably even money. The card also features Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann, which does have ramifications for the welterweight title picture. The winner is probably one more victory away from a title shot. I'll take Thiago in that one, and Cro Cop in a minor upset. If he wins, I'd like to see Mirko fight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (they last met in 2003, with Big Nog winning by armbar). If Barry wins, I might give him the loser of Lesnar/Carwin, or the winner of Rothwell/Gilbert Yvel.

Dream.14

Twelve quick thoughts on Dream.14, which aired at 3:00 am Eastern on Saturday morning:

1. For American fans, this is just brutal to watch live. The broadcast began at 3 AM on the East Coast, but the first half hour was spent hyping the card, and the actual fights didn't begin until 3:30. An early finish in the main event brought the card to a merciful end just after 6:30.

2. There's an obvious difference in the approach of American vs. Japanese MMA promotions. In the U.S., they're treated more or less like sporting events, with boxing as a frame of reference. In Japan, they're spectacles, general entertainment more than sports specifically. All the fighters were introduced a minimum of three times.

3. It's worth fighting in a major Japanese promotion at least once just so you can hear Lenne Hardt, better known as Crazy PRIDE Lady, scream your name to an arena.

4. Unlike most Japanese events, Dream.14 was held in a cage. Rather than the UFC's patented Octagon, though, this was a hexagonal white cage. Furthermore, Frank Trigg informed us during the broadcast, the cage was not made of metal. It was made of tuna net. I'm not joking.

5. I enjoyed Ikuhisa Minowa's easy victory over Imani Lee, who outweighed him by over 100 pounds, but I'd like to see Minowaman fighting top competition in his own weight class. Minowa has proven he's no joke, and he should be fighting serious opponents.

6. Very close fight between WEC veterans Yoshiro Maeda and Kenji Osawa. I had Maeda winning the contest, but Osawa took a split decision.

7. Same thing in Kazuyuki Miyata's bout against DEEP champion Takafumi Otsuka: very close contest, ultimately decided in Miyata's favor, by split decision. I might have gone the other way.

8. Joachim Hansen's experiment at featherweight is not going well. He's 0-2 after a definitive knockout loss to Hiroyuki Takaya, who presumably will now get another shot at title-holder Bibiano Fernandes. Hellboy, on the other hand, has lost three in a row and hasn't won in nearly two years. It's tough to regard him as a top fighter in any weight class right now.

9. The shock of the night was how easily 24-year-old Ralek Gracie defeated the legendary "Gracie Hunter" Kazushi Sakuraba. Gracie took a unanimous decision, as Saku looked totally outclassed. Gracie was bigger, stronger, and faster.

10. The weirdest moment of the card also came during Gracie/Sakuraba. The crowd came alive as Sakuraba grabbed a Kimura in the third round and appeared poised to steal a dramatic victory. Unfortunately, the referee inexplicably stepped in and spent an extended period of time moving both fighters' limbs so he could adjust Gracie's pants. By the time the ref was finished, Sakuraba had lost position and couldn't finish the submission.

11. In the main event, Hayato "Mach" Sakurai looked good on the feet, but he was no match for Nick Diaz on the ground, getting caught in an armbar just before the end of the first round. Diaz was uncharacteristically respectful in victory.

12. We all want to see Diaz get his rematch with KJ Noons, but I don't think any welterweight outside the UFC has more than a puncher's chance against Diaz right now. I assume Paul Daley vs. Diaz has to happen eventually.