Let's get this out of the way up front: I don't actually think Sam Bradford was the right choice with the first pick in this year's NFL Draft. I believe Ndamukong Suh is a can't-miss prospect at the pro level, and that's the direction I would have gone.
That said, I understand why the Rams chose Bradford first overall. Quarterback is the most important position in football, and sometimes a good QB can help your team more than a great defensive tackle. Since the AFL merger in 1970, the top pick in the draft has been used on a quarterback 18 times, almost half the time. Is this because NFL general managers are P.R.-obsessed morons, or is it because the best professional talent evaluators believe it's worth rolling the dice on a QB with upside even if that means passing on a safe bet at another position? Deny the fundamental importance of the QB position, and you're basically calling GMs stupid.
This topic has been a particular source of controversy the last few months, with Bradford passing Suh on the Rams' draft board and Titans RB Chris Johnson missing out on the league MVP Award after a historic season. Johnson became only the sixth player in history to rush for at least 2,000 yards in a season, and he broke Marshall Faulk's single-season record for yards from scrimmage. Johnson averaged 5.6 yards per carry and scored 16 touchdowns. It's one of the greatest seasons any running back has ever had.
Not only did Johnson not win MVP, he didn't get a vote. The 50 votes were split among four quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Brett Favre. Oddly, Johnson ran away with the Offensive Player of the Year Award, getting 38½ votes — 37 more than Manning. If Johnson was the league's most outstanding offensive player, how could he be so far removed from the MVP discussion?
I don't vote for the Associated Press awards, but I've chosen an MVP and OPOY for Sports Central every year since 2002. In only three of those eight seasons did I select the same person. In '09, I named Johnson OPOY and Brees MVP:
Are the AP voters and I buying into quarterback hype, giving the league's most prestigious individual award to QBs even when other players excel more at their positions? Are there some players who have no chance to win, no matter how well they play?
Yeah. Running backs have an uphill battle, while receivers and defensive players have almost no chance. Offensive linemen and special teamers have none at all, Mark Moseley's 1982 win in a strike-shortened season notwithstanding. That does seem unfair, but ultimately I believe it's appropriate. No matter how well an offensive lineman plays, I don't believe he can have enough individual impact to be the most valuable player in the league. Maybe one season I'll see a player who changes my mind. I doubt it.
I can even prove this, somewhat. Since the 1970 merger, the AP's first-team all-pro QBs have played on teams that posted a combined record of 489-125-2 (.794) and won six Super Bowls. A head-to-head comparison with first-team all-pros at most other positions wouldn't be fair, because AP names two each year, but the other positions don't have anything like the same record.
All-pro centers check in at 420-193-3 (.682). All-pro kickers are at .651. Punters? A lowly .531, 327-287-2. Quarterbacks are way, way ahead here.
Of course, we could argue that the all-pro QB selections are sometimes influenced more by team results than by individual performance. What if we just look at stats? How about each year's leader in passing TDs vs. running TDs? The passers were a combined 440-174.5-1.5 (the halves are from years when two players tied for the league lead). The runners combined to go 422.5-191.5-2. That's .717 for the QBs and .688 for the rushing leaders.
How about a really loaded one? Yardage leaders. Teams that are already winning tend to run the ball, whereas teams that are behind usually pass. The rushing leaders should win this, hands-down. The passers check in at 372-241-3, the rushers at 360-252-4. Even here, the exceptional quarterbacks are ahead.
Why did I name Chris Johnson Offensive Player of the Year, but Drew Brees league MVP? Johnson was the most outstanding at his position. No other running back came close to him last season. But you could probably replace Johnson with an average starter — Fred Jackson or Marion Barber — and it wouldn't cost the Titans more than a couple of games. Replace Brees with an average quarterback, like Jason Campbell or Kyle Orton, and the Saints are in a world of trouble.
Sam Bradford is one player, and I don't know if he was the right pick for St. Louis. But quarterback is a uniquely important position, and if the Rams believe Bradford will be a good one, he was probably the right choice.
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