The NFL Mock Draft Mock Challenge (Pt. 2)

Mock drafts, no matter the sport, are about as useless an exercise as it gets. We spend months pouring over scouting reports, reading team reports, and looking for hidden innuendo in trying to decipher which team will take which player at which spot.

An you know what the result of all that work is?

Maybe about a 30% success rate — if you're lucky.

Take last year's NFL mock draft from Mike Lombardi of the National Football Post, the NFL Network, and various other outlets. The guy lives and breathes the NFL. He headed the Raiders’ and Browns’ personnel departments. He worked with the 49ers, Eagles, and Broncos. This time of year, he's everywhere with all the latest info and insight.

Out of 32 first-round picks in his mock draft last year, do you know how many Lombardi got right?

One. He called Darrius Heyward-Bey to Oakland with the seventh pick, and missed every single other first-round pick. That's one out of 32 correct, or a 3.1 percent success rate. Not too hot.

Now this isn't to pick on Lombardi. By all accounts, he seems like a jovial guy, good at his job as a correspondent and all that. But when you have a guy like that, with all his connections within the league, and he comes up one for 32, then you get the sense of just how much of a crap shoot this mock draft business can be.

But of course that's not going to stop us. I'll probably never get a perfect NCAA tournament bracket either, but I'm still going to go at it year after year, because that's what we do. We love football. And so we mock on.

I used to have a complex formula for grading out mocks in my annual NFL Mock Draft Mock Challenge, but Sports Central's Matt Thomas found it a bit too complex for his liking. So we simplified the formula as such: player/team/draft position all correct = 3 points; team/player = 1 point; player/draft position = 0.5 points; highest point total wins.

To recap last year's results:

Mike Mayock (NFL.com): 30
Me (Sports Central): 28
Todd McShay (ESPN): 26
Rick Gosselin (Dallas Morning News): 24
Rob Rang (CBSSports): 24
Tab Bramford (Bleacher Report): 23
Don Banks (CNNSI): 23
Peter King (CNNSI): 20
Mel Kiper (ESPN): 19
Matt Thomas (Sports Central): 14.5
Pete Schrager (FOXsports.com): 9
Mike Lombardi (NFL.com): 6

Matt has submitted his 2010 mock draft. And now for the official Doria entry into this years' battle royal, the fifth in the NFL Mock Draft Mock Competition:

1: St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

What the Rams should do: take Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, then grab Texas QB Colt McCoy with the first pick in the second round (since I highly doubt he goes in the first). I'd take the Suh/McCoy combination over Sam Bradford/Pick 33 combination, mainly because I don't think there's near as much difference between Bradford and McCoy as there is between Suh and Pick 33. Suh will also come at a significantly lower price than the Oklahoma QB.

But...

What the Rams will do: succumb to the need to create a splash and redefine the franchise by taking a quarterback with a once-damaged shoulder, even though his representation has indicated he won't sign a contract before the draft. I'm not saying Bradford won't be a good pro, but there's too much risk for my mind to pass on Suh, who is a lock to dominate.

2: Detroit Lions - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

There's some debate over whether Suh or Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy will be the best pro, but I heavily subscribe to the notion that the will to dominate is just as important as any other intangible in assessing these players. Watching Nebraska play last year, you couldn't help but notice just how much Suh wanted to dominate the opposition. I never got that sense from McCoy. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz wants to build a dominant, mean, nasty defense, and Suh is the better fit.

3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

The Bucs are playing with house money here. If the Rams take Bradford, the Bucs take either McCoy or Suh, depending on who the Lions choose. If the Rams go Suh or McCoy, that means Bradford falls to three and they can trade the pick for a ransom. There's no way they can screw this up.

Then again, these are the Bucs.

4: Washington Redskins - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

I'm putting my faith in NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst Rob Rang here. The chalk pick is Oklahoma State's Russell Okung, but Rang insists Williams is the better fit for Mike Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme. And as I've said many a time these past years, the path to the best mock draft is in listening to the people who actually do the work scouting and talking to team executives (not all of them, mind you, just the ones who have a track record of success, which Rang does — last year, he had Tyson Jason to KC, Heyward-Bey to Oakland, and Michael Crabtree falling to San Francisco at 10).

Just a note: this would be the fourth straight player from the Big 12 to open the draft. If that comes to pass, it would be the first time four players from the same conference led off the NFL draft since 1945.

5: Kansas City Chiefs - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Atlanta GM Tom Dimitroff was quoted earlier this offseason commenting how former Patriots boss and current Chiefs GM Scott Pioli isn't a huge fan of picking safeties early in the draft, which is how Tennessee safety Eric Berry continues to fall despite being the unquestioned top defensive back in the draft for a league that is more and more becoming pass heavy. With Washington's decision to jump on Williams, Okung is left for the taking by KC.

(And that would make five straight players from the same conference to lead off the draft, something that has never happened since the NFL draft began in 1936. You find me another mock with that kind of historical detail.)

6: Seattle Seahawks - Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

The Seahawks have some huge needs on offense, so the choice comes down to Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga and Berry, the two-time unanimous All-American safety and reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year out of Tennessee. And though the Seahawks desperately need to bolster its offensive line, they finished just 30th in pass defense in 2010. Berry would fill a huge void.

7: Cleveland Browns - Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Haden is a perfect need and value combination platter for Mike Holmgren in his first year as shot-caller for the Browns.

8: Oakland Raiders - Taylor Mays, S, USC

The Raiders are a cliche of a cliche. They could go with Bruce Campbell, the Maryland tackle who seems better suited for doing combine tests than holding up against NFL defensive ends. They could reach for a corner in preparation for losing Nnamdi Asomugha. Hell, they could pick Tim Tebow and just blow the whole damn thing up for all we know. So since we have no idea what Al Davis will do, I'll just pick a major reach in Mays, a big kid with off-the-charts speed and athleticism who skips out on technique and goes for the big hit and highlight play. In other words, Al Davis' kind of guy.

9: Buffalo Bills - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

Buffalo actually had a pretty decent season running the ball in 2009, especially considering the lack of a passing game to keep defenses honest. I'm not in the camp that believes Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen is any sort of franchise savior (or even better than Trent Edwards or Brian Brohm), so they are better off continuing to build from the inside out, and that means upgrading the offensive line.

10: Jacksonville Jaguars - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

McClain is a winner, leader and general all-around bad-ass, the exact kind of guy head coach Jack Del Rio will fall in love with as he tries to save his job.

11: Denver Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

This is a good place to point out that anybody who comes to the mock draft detail spouting certainty is full of it. Nobody knows anything. The teams don't even know what they are going to do. They just have varying degrees of hypotheticals and what-ifs. And so when somebody like Yahoo! Sports' Charles Robinson tell you there's no way the Broncos are taking Bryant, it's just hot air. He doesn't know any more than you do.

So why risk it and go Bryant here? Because the Broncos' top two receivers are Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney, and Bryant is the clear best at the position. That's why.

12: Miami Dolphins - Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Even before the eight-game suspension handed to DT Jason Ferguson, the Dolphins had to be thinking about adding some depth in the middle of their 3-4 defense. But with Ferguson out for the first half of the season, the 327-lb Williams becomes even more of a need.

13: San Francisco 49ers - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

I don't think Clausen is the second coming of anybody, let alone the last quarterback the 49ers drafted out of Notre Dame. Clausen's career stats are more likely to approximate those of Jim Druckenmiller than Joe Montana. But word out of San Francisco is Mike Singletary and Co. are digging on Clausen, so that's what we'll go with. Personally, I'd rather have Colt McCoy.

14: Seattle Seahawks - C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

It will take exactly 4.38 seconds for the Seattle rep in the draft room to hand in the card with Spiller's name on it.

15: New York Giants - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

The Giants have to have a pass rush in order to succeed, and last season's ineffectiveness in getting to the opposing quarterback (only 32 sacks, down from 42 the year prior) was one of the main reasons behind the Giants' descent into mediocrity. With Morgan on board, New York will have some flexibility if the Osi Umenyiora situation doesn't resolve amicably.

(Note: I'm not advocating they trade Umenyiora, just that if they can get a good price for him, which I think they could, it wouldn't be the dumbest move in the world.)

16: Tennessee Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Like the Giants, the Titans' step back from championship contender to out of the playoffs can be tied to their inability to get to the opposing quarterbacks (44 sacks in 2008, 32 in 2009). I'm not personally sold that Pierre-Paul is the answer, because there are some serious questions about his ability to hold up against the run, but the man has speed off the edge, and Tennessee is going to need to get to Peyton Manning if they have any hope of climbing back atop the AFC South.

17: San Francisco 49ers - Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

The 49ers need to find a bookend to Joe Staley, and Davis is a much better fit for Singletary and the toughness-first mindset of this franchise than the more athletic Bruce Campbell.

18: Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Iupati, G, Idaho

With the Steelers' needs along the interior of their offensive line, the choice will come down to Iupati and Florida center Maurkice Pouncey. Iupati is bigger by about 25 pounds and a better run-blocker, and should push for an immediate starting job in 2010.

19: Atlanta Falcons - Earl Thomas, S, Texas

The Falcons' pass defense ranked just 28th in the league last year and both Thomas DeCoud and Eric Coleman will be free agents after the 2011 lockout/season. Thomas and 2009 second-round pick William Moore (Missouri) will combine to form the backbone of the secondary for the next five or so years.

20: Houston Texans - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama

I wanted to give the Texans running back Ryan Matthews from Fresno State to prop up a pathetic run game from 2009 (just 3.5 yard-per-carry average), but the loss of Dunta Robinson to Atlanta in free agency forces Gary Kubiak to fortify his defensive backfield.

21: Cincinnati Bengals - Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida

The Bengals offensive line played well beyond expectations last year, but there's no long-term stability on the interior. Even if Pouncey can't break into the first team from the onset, he would provide valuable depth at center and both guard spots.

22: New England Patriots - Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

Every year, pundits seem to want to give the Patriots a DE/LB hybrid in the first round, and it's never happened under Bill Belichick. Not once. And it's not going to happen this year either. Personally, I think Belichick trades out of this pick with no real great value-need combination and several players that other teams might covet. But since I'm staying true to the order (predicting trades is a sucker bet), I'm giving them Dunlap, a bit of a reach, but a winner (Defensive MVP of the BCS National Championship Game) from a program Belichick is intimately familiar with and respects. He may not be the next Richard Seymour, but he can help get back some of that defensive line push that they sorely lacked last season.

23: Green Bay Packers - Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

The Packers could go offensive line, but Wilson is great value and puts in place the next generation with Charles Woodson (34 in October) and Al Harris (36 in December) getting up in age.

24: Philadelphia Eagles - Everson Griffin, DE, USC

The Eagles are all about the defensive line rotation and getting heat on the opposing quarterback. Griffin is strong (position-high 32 reps on the bench press at the combine) and fast (4.66 40-tard dash), plus he has experience dropping into coverage, which provides defensive coordinator Sean McDermott flexibility for his exotic blitz schemes.

25: Baltimore Ravens - Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas

All the world has Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens continuing their stockpile of offensive skill players, either with Georgia Tech wide receiver Demaryius Thomas or Oklahoma tight end Jermaine Gresham, but Kindle fits into the line of 3-4 OLB that are the lifeblood of the Ravens' defense. Plus Newsome is as much a value drafter as there is in the league, and the TE depth will be there in the next few rounds, while WR isn't as much of a need with the additions of Anquan Boldin and Donte' Stallworth.

26: Arizona Cardinals - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

Any time you have Anthony Becht atop your TE depth chart, you need an upgrade. Gresham is the clear cut top player at the position and a steal at 26.

27: Dallas Cowboys - Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech

Jerry Jones may not be able to hop in the hot tub time machine to stop himself from giving Roy Williams that ridiculous contract, but he can at least ensure he has a capable replacement opposite Miles Austin if Williams doesn't show up to play in 2010.

28: San Diego Chargers - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama

This one will send mild shock waves through the draft room, but the 3-4 has to have the big NT anchoring the middle, and San Diego lost the aging Jamal Williams to Denver this offseason. Cody certainly carries some baggage (and then some), but as long as he can get out there on first and second downs and clog up the middle, he'll do just fine.

29: New York Jets - Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State

For some reason, the Jets are in must-win-now mode, throwing all conventional wisdom aside. Like the whole rule about not adding a bunch of underachieving ego players looking for their own stats so they can get paid? Yeah, never mind about that. Of anybody on the board, Odrick best seems able to contribute in a rotation role in 2010, which apparently is the only season the Jets care about.

30: Minnesota Vikings - Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State

What? Why on Earth would the Vikings, with superstar Adrian Peterson in the prime of his career, take a first-round running back? Well, they lost Chester Taylor to the Chicago Bears, so they clearly need a new number two. Plus, and I don't want to bring up bad memories for Vikings fans, but Peterson has a bit of a fumbling issue. It's probably not a bad idea to remind him that there are other alternatives for carries. And if AP gets hurt, you don't want Albert Young as your only option.

31: Indianapolis Colts - Brandon Graham, LB, Michigan

There's been a lot of talk of Graham converting over to a 3-4 OLB, but I don't think backing up in space is the place for him. He's a line-of-scrimmage play maker, and his "questionable" frame (6-1, 270) is just about the exact same size as current Colts starting DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney.

Just another note: the Colts are all about the Big Ten, having drafted 11 Big Ten players in the past five years. That's the most of any NFL team, followed by Pittsburgh (10), the Jets (9), and Miami and New Orleans (8 each). The 11 picks of Big Ten players by the Colts represents more than a full quarter of their draft picks over the past five drafts (11 of 43). Just in case you were wondering.

32: New Orleans Saints - Jahvid Best, RB, California

This is the perfect situation for Best — an imaginative play-caller in head coach Sean Payton, an established run game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush so Best won't be expected to carry the ball 20 times per game, an opening/need for an explosive kick and punt returner (only San Francisco was worse than the Saints' 4.6 average yards per punt return in 2009), and a schedule that will include almost all dome or warm-weather games (at least 14 of 16 depending on weather at Baltimore and Cincinnati).

And with the pick of Best, queue what will be an incredible day of speculation and action on Friday leading up to the second and third rounds on Friday night. You could make a whole day of just sitting back and watching the NFL Network checking up on the various trade scenarios and updated draft boards. And if you're stuck at work, you better be following Adam Schefter (@Adam_Schefter) and Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) on Twitter. (What the hell — give @michaelombardi a follow, too. And of course @sportcentral.)

(Note: Before the draft, I'll post the link to the other mocks in this year's competition. And depending on how things go, we'll have the results up on Monday or so.)