First thing's first. I'm an idiot. I went along with the sentiment of momentum, the attraction of a tough schedule, and the consistency of a major conference to pick my champion for this year's tournament.
What? No. My bracket wasn't busted Saturday, when Kansas got upset by Northern Iowa. I didn't even last that long. I couldn't even make it past 10 PM (ET) Thursday night, when Georgetown got their doors blown off by Ohio.
That's the yin and yang ... the reason why picking the tournament is so aggravating ... the reason why the ambiance of March Madness is so enticing and intriguing. As we recover from this very chaotic stretch and prepare for the Regional Semifinals, here are my Sweet 16 thoughts on what's past and coming up.
1) It's Merely a Flesh Wound.
Is Northern Iowa defeating Kansas on Saturday a humungous upset? Nah. I can't take you down that route. Not when George Mason of 2006 is in the same century. Heck, to me, this wasn't even the biggest surprise of the tournament (I know, I know, sour grapes). It's significant, sure. But humungous? I wouldn't call a 30-4 Missouri Valley Conference champ one of the Davids. There have been too many MVC teams that have done well lately to put the Panthers in that category.
2) We've Gotten a Little Top-Heavy.
Now that the tourney's been whittled down to 16 teams, you can't really say there's a Cinderella story. Sure, many didn't expect Northern Iowa, Butler, Cornell, or Saint Mary's to make it through, but it shouldn't be surprising. Out of the Sweet 16, fourteen squads finished with (or tied for) the best or second-best record in their conference. The only ones that don't fit ... Washington and Tennessee. Both were in third by only one game.
3) The First Session of the Event Spoiled Me.
If you were asking me how the tournament should be played, I'd tell you to repeat Thursday's early afternoon games. A missed prayer, an answered prayer, an overtime thriller, and a double overtime slugfest? I thought I had died and gone to Bracket Heaven. Unfortunately, I knew that blowouts were just around the corner. But it was amazing that all the games in the same session (I count Vanderbilt/Murray State as session one in San Jose) were so close.
4) The Mountain West ... Good, But Needs Some Work.
During the regular season, this was one of the best conferences in the realm of the mid-majors. It showed when the committee invited a league-record four teams into the field. But I overestimated their worth. Honestly, I believed UNLV was going to have difficulties in their first-round skirmish with UNI. But we got to take baby steps with them. The last "elite" program from the conference was the Rick Majerus-coached Utah teams. Let's see what Steve Alford does with New Mexico.
5) The Atlantic 10 ... Good, But Underachieving.
I like the mid-majors. I think they play great basketball. This year, the A-10 was the best of the mids. The toughness of Temple and Xavier. The speedy guard-play of Richmond. The athleticism of Dayton. All that is well and good, but it hasn't translated into postseason success outside of Cincinnati. Musketeers head coach Chris Mack seems to have a chip on both shoulders, but what he said after his squad's first-round win was right. Xavier is now in the same category as Butler and Gonzaga. They're a quality program that's largely separated itself from the rest of its conference.
6) Must ... Resist ... Ridicule ... of ... Underachievers.
Every two to three years, one of the big boys seems to be less than stellar. This year's down cycle squarely resides in the Pac-10. However, along with this mediocre play comes a surprise. When a Big Ten, SEC, or Big 12 only gets three or four teams in the Dance, at least one comes through for a couple of wins. Both Cal and Washington proved that theory to be true with first-round stunners. The Huskies followed that up with a pasting of New Mexico. The lesson here, kids ... don't kick a dog (or bear) when it's down. It could come back to bite us.
7) Seven and Nine is Just Fine.
Usually, a 7-9 conference record puts a team on fringe status for the tourney ... and that's just in one of the power conferences. This time around, though, below .500 worked out a little better for a couple teams. The formula was surely beneficial to Georgia Tech, who made a run to the ACC championship, then backed it up with a win over Oklahoma State. Of course, everyone knows about Ohio. The Bobcats went from ninth-seed in the MAC tournament to overnight sensation with their upset over Georgetown. Let's not forget, Houston snuck in after a 7-9 campaign in Conference USA.
8) They've Been Right All Along.
From the start of the season, there's been a buzz that anywhere from 8-10 teams could win the national championship. Kentucky and Syracuse are (and should be) the favorites. But you can't sit there and tell me that any one of these teams is head and shoulders above the others. When I first picked out the Madness victors, I had all four number ones going to the Elite Eight. I also had the three strongest seeds (UK, 'Cuse, and KU) losing in that round. There's talent everywhere. There's good coaching everywhere. And, this year, there's a consistent winning attitude everywhere.
Okay. I've caught my breath. However, with the way the first four days went, it's not a reach to say more basketball goodness is on the way. So, who's got an upper hand to reach the Elite Eight?
9) Kentucky vs. Cornell
I really like this matchup, but could ESPN's Jay Bilas actually be right? Can the senior experience of the Big Red trump the overall talent and athleticism of the Wildcats? Can Ryan Whitman's shooting offset John Wall's intangibles? Can Jeff Foote's size stack up to DeMarcus Cousins or Patrick Patterson? Probably not. However, most of the players on the floor should make some nice coin down the road (athletic or otherwise).
Kentucky: 75-64
10) West Virginia vs. Washington
This is a classic contrast of styles. West Virginia's staunch defense goes against Washington high-octane athletes. Just like against Missouri on Sunday, the Mountaineers will want to slow the Huskies down and play more of a half-court game. Can U-Dub speed up WVU where the Tigers couldn't? In my opinion, not enough. Defense will rule the night.
West Virginia: 64-57
11) Syracuse vs. Butler
The Bulldogs are supposed to be here. They've been a top-20 team for most of the season. They play tenacious team defense. Their team can score at five different positions. The team is on a 22-game winning streak. Trouble is ... the team is going to have to get hot against that long 2-3 zone. If we see the team that played in the second half of their win over UTEP, they will win. That's a tough level to maintain against the Orange.
Syracuse: 71-62
12) Kansas State vs. Xavier
Jacob Pullen and Denny Clemente went off in Oklahoma City. The two-guard force will be difficult to match up against. But if any twosome can challenge them, it's Terrell Holloway and Jordan Crawford. This game will come down to the frontcourt play. I like Jason Love to do some damage to the Wildcats' middle. And don't expect K-State to be the tougher, more physical team in this one. The Musketeers know how to play that game.
Xavier: 68-65
13) Ohio State vs. Tennessee
To be honest, I didn't have either the Buckeyes or Volunteers here. I thought San Diego State and Georgia Tech were going to be upset assassins. But, now that I'm put in this position, I have to acknowledge that OSU can be more than a one-man team. Jon Diebler's shooting has been lights-out so far. But I usually undervalue Tennessee and their athleticism. I'm not going to do that now. The Volunteers' experience against Kansas and Kentucky has prepped them for a game like this, and I believe Bruce Pearl will find a way to use that experience to his advantage.
Tennessee: 77-71
14) Michigan State vs. Northern Iowa
The Panthers are the new darlings of the country. As I said earlier, though, they're no Cinderella. The MVC champs are dangerous as is. Now, add in the fact that Spartan point guard Kalin Lucas will, at the very least, be severely hampered by his Achilles injury. I think this will equal an Elite Eight berth for an unlikely squad.
Northern Iowa: 72-64
15) Duke vs. Purdue
Along with predicting the overall bracket, I'm participating in of those game-by-game contests. To this point, I've pretty much followed my overall bracket, as much as it can allow. That ends now. I had Duke going to the Final Four, but that was winning against Siena in the regional semis and Richmond in the final. The three teams that are left can create problems for the Blue Devils.
As far as the Boilermakers are concerned, I'm actually extremely happy for them. With Robbie Hummel, this team was the fourth one-seed. But they're showing just how good they are, period. I've learned my lesson and won't pick against them this time. The feel-good train rolls on.
Purdue: 68-65
16) Baylor vs. Saint Mary's
The Bears are the most under-the-radar team left in this whole thing. Every other team has some kind of angle, whether it be dominant presence, underachiever turned hot, or smaller conference affiliation. Baylor's just a really good team for a big conference that's taken care of business. Tweety Carter, Lacedarius Dunn, and Ekpe Udoh are a formidable trio.
This was the area of the bracket, though, that I thought could be ravaged by a George Mason/Davidson/Gonzaga. Unfortunately for my bracket, I picked the wrong team. The Gaels have been fantastic for the last three years. Now, they're getting a chance to prove it. Mickey McConnell and Omar Samhan want to show that it's their time to shine, and I'm fully behind that statement.
Saint Mary's: 82-77
Will these picks match up to the results on Thursday and Friday? Who knows? And that's the way I like it. The only thing assured through this point is that the Madness has definitely lived up to its name in 2010.
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