Need a little help figuring out why Rutgers is the new "flavor of the month" in the Big Ten Expansion pool or why Texas suddenly "jumped the shark?" Why is the Association of American Universities suddenly hot? Is Notre Dame hot or cold this week? A look at who's hot and who's cold will help anyone trying to get through the chatter of what the Chicago Tribune has reported Big Ten Commissioner saying is now "a silent phase" of Big Ten expansion.
Hot: William Blair Company — Why is an investment firm hot? The Chicago Tribune recently reported that this investment firm evaluated five schools: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Missouri, Syracuse, and Rutgers for the purpose of Big Ten expansion. Hiring an investment firm implies the Big Ten means business. It could also mean that later down the line if the Big Ten makes a mistake, it has someone to blame outside of its member schools. A scapegoat could really help the ACC explain how Boston College is a good fit for its conference right about now.
Hot: Conference Championship Game For Football — Two divisions of six and one December game generally means millions of dollars for member schools. It also means an expansion of the season so a conference can remain in the national spotlight longer. Reports indicate conference championship games often bring in $12 million of additional revenue, which for the Big Ten equates to roughly $1 million per school.
Cold: Bowl Championship Series (BCS) Berths — Without a conference championship game, the Big Ten has the most BCS berths at 21 and second most BCS wins with 10. The SEC has 19 (most wins with 14) and the Big 12 has 17 (7 wins). What does a football championship game give a conference? A second place team, no ties atop the standings, and for some a clearer path to the Capital One Bowl.
The official BCS website reports the Big Ten received $22.2 million from having two teams in the BCS. The likelihood of getting two teams in the BCS every year decreases with a conference championship game. Losing $11 million in BCS money for $12 million of conference championship money seems like a fair trade-off. Of course, with two BCS berths and a conference championship, the potential to have it all exists. Is the potential swap of a BCS berth for December spotlight worth the risk?
Hot: Rutgers — Maybe a better gauge of temperature is"'Scarlet Hot." The Scarlet Knights appear to be the alpha dog in this race today. The combination of their academic reputation and television markets of New York and Philadelphia may prove too much for the Big Ten to resist.
Everyone remembers that one time the Rutgers football team earned an 8.1 rating while on ESPN. That night made everyone forget about the years and years of football futility for the state university of New Jersey. So what if there is preponderance of evidence that New Yorkers don't care much for college football or Rutgers. Rutgers football earned an 8.1 rating and that means it could happen again. Just make sure when the Big Red R joins the Big Ten that it wins all of its games every year. An undefeated Rutgers will surely draw that 8.1 rating again and again and again.
Cold: $20 million — How is $20 million cold? This is the amount Big Ten teams reportedly take home right now. Big Ten schools want to make sure that their $20 million dollars is kept safe regardless of which team gets to play football and other sports with them. They want an increase in their take home pay, not a decrease. In other words, The Big Ten can give an institution $20 million reasons to want to join, but Big Ten schools can give $20 million reasons some schools aren't worthy. After all, nobody likes to take a pay-cut and self-perseverance can make any hot deal a cold one in a hurry.
Hot: $5 million — Sources are being quoted as saying there will be an entry fee to any school wanting to join the Big Ten, a hefty $5 million. The Associated Press reports Wisconsin Athletic director Barry Alvarez as saying: "I think someone has to buy their way into the league." After dividing the entry fee by the current 11 teams, there is roughly $454,000 per school. Wouldn't it be more cost effective to get a couple more teams bowl-eligible and split those payouts? Suddenly, scheduling Little Sisters of the Poor for those four non-conference football games isn't such a bad idea.
Cold: Texas — The Big 12 takes television revenue and splits it into two buckets. The first bucket is split between member teams equally. The second bucket is split by how many times each team is on television. The more you are on television, the more money you get. Suddenly, the Big Ten Network doesn't look that great for BCS runner-up Texas.
Hot: Missouri — The Big 12 television revenue split (see Texas) isn't so great for Missouri. What is good Big 12 business for Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska doesn't trickle down to Missouri, Baylor, or Iowa State. I guess Missouri quarterback Chase Daniels' departure and those national television appearances he took with him was a little more devastating than earlier reported.
Hot: Association of American Universities (AAU) — All Big Ten universities belong to this group which calls itself calls itself "an association of 62 leading research universities in the United States and Canada." Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Missouri are all members. Notre Dame isn't a member of the AAU. If membership to this group is paramount to a team joining the Big Ten, then suddenly AAU members Rice, McGill University, Tulane, and Vanderbilt are on the Big Ten's radar. Wait, maybe academics isn't as important as the Big Ten says.
Hot: University of Chicago — If academics are important to this expansion, then take a look at another academic group all Big Ten schools belong to: the Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC). The only member of this group not currently in the Big Ten is the University of Chicago. The CIC website explains the CIC this way: "for half a century, these 12 world-class research institutions have advanced their academic missions, generated unique opportunities for students and faculty, and served the common good by sharing expertise, leveraging campus resources, and collaborating on innovative programs."
The University of Chicago Maroons recently announced an expanded football schedule of ten games for the 2010 season. If academics are important to this merger, they may have to move their University Athletic Association games to the side, which means out goes Case Western Reserve and here comes Wisconsin! It will be a jump for the NCAA Division 3 Maroons, but finding a school that shares its passion for academics is important to the Big Ten, right? Well, maybe the University of Chicago isn't so "hot" after all.
Hot: Pittsburgh and its Rivalry With Penn State University (PSU) — Pittsburgh is supposedly a long-time rival of the Big Ten's Penn State. The red-hot football rivalry of Pitt vs. PSU hasn't been played since 2000. Each of these teams gets four non-conference games, right? Maybe this rivalry's whole future is dependent on Big Ten expansion. Can anyone imagine Notre Dame and the University of Southern California going dormant for the same amount of time?
Hot: Syracuse — As for Syracuse, they could certainly enhance the Big Ten with the Carrier Dome. After all, the University of Minnesota has left the Metrodome and the Big Ten will need a dome for one of its teams to call home.
Cold: Nebraska — The Big Ten Network doesn't see a whole lot of opportunity in Lincoln Nebraska. Of course, as Nebraska again ascends nationally in college football and becomes a household name once more, that whole "Lincoln is too small" thing may bite the Big Ten network in the old you know what.
Hot and Cold: Travel — The Big Ten has acknowledged travel as a consideration in this process. The Big Ten has said it is important to find a school where travel won't be an in issue, especially with regards to sports other than basketball and football. This makes travel "hot."
But since the Big Ten is apparently considering Syracuse and Rutgers, maybe travel is "cold." The Iowa to Syracuse trip or Wisconsin to Rutgers travel junket could prove to be daunting and expensive for the gymnastics and wrestling teams. If travel is a consideration to any of the teams outside of football or basketball, then shouldn't the Big Ten look at expanding to a Mid-American Conference school like Miami of Ohio?
Hot and Cold: Notre Dame — The only person who knows what Notre Dame will do is Touchdown Jesus and he isn't talking. With regards to geography, money, academics, and tradition Notre Dame seems like a natural fit. The school is in the heart of Big Ten country, is known nationally, would bring a lot of money to the conference, is sound academically, and has a long history. Notre Dame is the perfect fit for the Big Ten!
The flip side is obvious, of course. Notre Dame's geography is national and not limited to Big Ten country, as it can command a national contract from NBC. Notre Dame makes a lot of money on its own, is not a research institution like the Big Ten universities, and didn't establish its history by being a conference champion.
Notre Dame is both the long-shot and favorite in the Big Ten expansion pool and it appears as though they are loving every minute of it.
Hot: The BCS — The BCS rewards six conferences for being "power conferences." Big Ten expansion could lead to Pac Ten expansion, Big 12 expansion etc. etc. The six "power conferences" could quickly become the only six conferences. Oh no, the BCS is suddenly foreshadowing college expansion. Who knew the BCS would gently guide college sports into the future?
Cold: Expanding the Recruiting Base — Most of the Big Ten powerhouses are recruiting nationally now. Are there a lot of five-star recruits out there who don't know about Ohio State football or Michigan State basketball these days? By extension, these recruits must realize that letters of intent for these schools means trips to other Big Ten schools. Besides, aren't the most fertile recruiting states Florida, Texas, and California anyway? If expansion of the recruiting base is what the Big Ten wants, it should take a look at UCLA, the University of Florida, and the University of Texas. Wait, that Texas thing didn't work out as planned.
The bottom line is the Big Ten may or may not expand. Big Ten expansion is everything and nothing all at the same time. For a "silent phase," the volume of debate is at a fever pitch.
March 20, 2010
CanadianWolf:
Notre Dame, Missouri & Pitt are the best choices for expansion to a fourteen team conference.
If the Big ten Conference adds only one team, then it will be Notre Dame.
March 20, 2010
Jim:
Rutgers had terrible ratings and poor attendance in 2009. Their basketball program is one of the worst in the nation. They are not getting the bid — Syracuse and Pitt are both better candidates from their own conference.
March 20, 2010
Chico:
Yeah, Syracuse is a great candidate…if it’s 1992. So is Pitt, if you forget they own that market between Columbus and Penn State. And New York City doesn’t care about Rutgers…if it’s the 80s. Maybe you didn’t hear, but there was a recession on in 2009. And the schedule featured some pretty lame teams combined with bad weather for the good teams.
The people with money in the game who aren’t just casual fans, those running the Big Ten, see what Rutgers has to offer. They also see — and just where are you writing this from, Vito? Is it New York City?
They also see Rutgers broadcasting from across from Radio City, the Empire State going red for big games — and you forgot that one against #2 USF, who we beat. They see ads on top of cabs and the Rutgers Club NYC filling bars to capacity.
In the old days, which I think a lot of people are stuck in (not just on this, and I feel it too, often; hard to believe wins are possible) it was amazing to see a Rutgers sweatshirt anywhere in the NY area. Now they’re all over.
It’s just funny to watch people cling to their old templates. If a team wins, people will watch it. If that’s enough for the Big Ten, then it’s Rutgers. Also better academics than Pitt and a brand new stadium, unlike Syracuse’s 100 year old dome.
March 20, 2010
CanadianWolf:
My best guess is that Rutgers is being used as a lure to force Notre Dame into taking action.
Although Rutgers appears to be too far away to engage in Big Ten Conference athletic competition, it is believable bait due to its proximity to a major airport and due to its possible attraction to the nation’s most populous, highest density cable network.
I suspect that the Big Ten Conference may be involved in simultaneous, but separate, negotiations with both universities and cable TV providers.
March 20, 2010
CanadianWolf:
@Chico: Interesting post, however, the academics at the University of Pittsburgh are equal to those at Rutgers; in fact, Pitt is ranked slightly higher than Rutgers by U.S.News.
As a fan of Big Ten athletics who grew up in the Northeastern U.S., I am concerned that Big Ten fans have little interest in competing regularly against Rutgers, but prefer Notre Dame, Missouri, Nebraska or Pitt. Rutgers would be purely a financial move that might dilute fan loyalty to the conference in a manner similiar to Boston College’s ACC membership.
March 20, 2010
CanadianWolf:
Earlier news reports stated that the Big Ten Conference hired consultants to examine 15 universities as possible candidates for Big Ten membership, although only 5 teams were named publicly. My best guess as to which schools are on the list of fifteen possible expansion candidates in order of their liklihood of being invited to join the Big Ten Conference are:
1) Notre Dame
2) Missouri
3) Colorado
4) Pittsburgh
5) Nebraska
6) Rutgers
7) Texas
8) Texas A&M
9) Kansas
10) Syracuse
11) Oklahoma
12) Vanderbilt
13) Boston College
14) Miami University of Ohio
15) Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, West Virginia or Cornell.
March 21, 2010
Chico:
Yeah, I meant the team academic rating only, which puts Rutgers at #3. Interesting point about ND. I hadn’t thought of that. I also agree on geography.
As I alluded to in my post, my initial thought was that Rutgers would be completely over-matched in the Big Ten, and return to 0-11 and 1-10 seasons as when they first joined the Big East. But I try to do what I suggested and look at things as they are, not as they have been, to paraphrase RFK.
I guess it’s up to the Fighting Irish, but I find their fan dance with independence irritating. What can you do, though, if the Big Ten keeps floating it. I guess it’s like the pretty girl in school that everyone talks about asking out even though you know she’ll reject everyone.
I can’t see them traveling to Piscataway for games, or Rutgers going to far-away schools. I think it would really change things, but in the end college football has become a big business and source of revenue. If they think they can finally tap into the NY market, they’ll take Rutgers no matter how little sense it makes. I’d prefer to see the Big East boosted and get some decent bowls.
March 21, 2010
Frank:
Chico’s post is the kind of propaganda you usually only see on the Rutgers Rivals board. Let’s deal with a couple falsehoods first — that “the Empire State building goes red for big games” and that Rutgers ads are on the top of NYC cabs. The Empire State Building went red for Rutgers once — in 2006 — and you will see just as many Syracuse ads on NYC cabs as Rutgers ones. You can claim you are “New York City’s team” but there’s no proof to back that up, and your TV ratings were surprisingly low this past season. Also, with the biggest city in the world so close, it’s really embarrassing that you only sold out a 52,000 seat stadium once this past season. Don’t think the Big Ten won’t notice that. And let’s not forget basketball, where Pitt and Syracuse are in the Big Dance while Rutgers is spending its 19th straight post-season out of March Madness. RU just doesn’t have the resume to get into the Big Ten.
March 21, 2010
CanadianWolf:
Even if Rutgers is being used as a lure to attract the attention of Notre Dame, it is believable bait & not a “red herring” ploy because if the Big Ten Network receives indications of a highly profitable cable TV deal for NYC & the Northern New Jersey & Philadelphia regions, Rutgers could receive an invitation to join the Big Ten Conference. The proximity of Rutgers to the Newark airport makes the travel time bearable for Midwestern teams.
Although I offered a long list of teams that might be evaluated for Big Ten membership, only the first half of that list will receive serious consideration for an offer from the Big Ten Conference. Many of the teams are being scrutinized so that the Big Ten Conference can be politically correct when refusing to offer membership to certain teams such as Iowa State. The Big Ten Conference can assign blame for the non-offers on the consultants’ report that recommended against adding certain teams/universities due to unprofitable projections.
But Rutgers is a legitimate possibility because Big Ten expansion is as much a cable TV programming undertaking as it is an academic & athletic alliance. Clearly the Big Ten wants Notre Dame, but the Big Ten Conference also wants more revenue & income generated through the highly profitable Big Ten Network. Accordingly, I suspect that several alternative scenarios are being considered by Big Ten officials that could result in a multiple team expansion to either 14 or 16 teams. For example, if Texas wants to join the Big Ten Conference, then teams such as Texas A&M, Oklahoma & Nebraska become more likely to receive serious consideration as expansion teams.
March 21, 2010
JJKANDLAK:
Big Ten is going to expand by 3 schools:
one from East Coast (Pitt or Rutgers)
one “wow factor” fb team (Notre Dame or Nebraska)
Mizzou (KC & STL TV markets)
COlorado joining the Pac 10 sets all this in motion..
March 21, 2010
JJKANDLAK:
CanadianWolf:
Earlier news reports stated that the Big Ten Conference hired consultants to examine 15 universities as possible candidates for Big Ten membership, although only 5 teams were named publicly. My best guess as to which schools are on the list of fifteen possible expansion candidates in order of their liklihood of being invited to join the Big Ten Conference are:
1) Notre Dame
2) Missouri
3) Colorado
4) Pittsburgh
5) Nebraska
6) Rutgers
7) Texas
8) Texas A&M
9) Kansas
10) Syracuse
11) Oklahoma
12) Vanderbilt
13) Boston College
14) Miami University of Ohio
15) Iowa State, Kansas State, Kentucky, West Virginia or Cornell
Canadian Wolf-
I like your list of 15, my only discrepancy is Colorado. I believe Colorado is headed for the Pac 10 and will happen soon. I believe the Big Ten will defer to Pac 10, as their raid of Colorado from the Big 12 “breaks the seal” and provides Mizzou and Nebraska the excuse to leave for the Big 10.
March 21, 2010
CanadianWolf:
The Big Ten Network’s tremendous financial success, even greater than the SEC’s lucrative cable TV contract with ESPN, has shifted collegiate athletic affiliations into a new paradigm. The new model considers cable TV markets a factor of primary importance capable of transcending even geographic & academic considerations.
Many state “supported” universities are experiencing substantial cut-backs of public funding. The University of Michigan, for example, receives a very small percentage of its overall budget from state funds. New sources of revenue are needed by universities to avoid cutting academic facilities, services & offerings.
Although I do not think that the Big Ten Conference needs to look beyond Notre Dame, Missouri & Pitt to substantially increase revenues for & from the Big Ten Network, anything is possible when a network—Fox—is a 49% owner of the conference TV network & big bucks are involved.
Notre Dame offers a national TV market, Missouri offers St. Louis & Kansas City TV markets, Pitt solidifies an already existing Big Ten market, but is likely to boost ratings within those areas. Colorado offers a substantial, yet still growing, TV market of Denver & Boulder. Texas offers a substantial regional market with potentially sky high viewership ratings if its traditional rivals are also invited to join the same conference.
March 21, 2010
CanadianWolf:
@JJ: I agree that if the Pac 10 enlists Colorado as one of its expansion teams, then the Big Ten could rationalize luring Missouri into its conference with minimal moral self-reproach. And the Big Ten’s intrusion into the Big 12 Conference might be enough to prompt Texas to consider making a move into the Big Ten Conference as well. The question then becomes one as to whether the Big Ten Conference should expand only to 14 teams by adding Missouri, Texas & Notre Dame or should it expand to 16 teams by adding two two more teams from among Nebraska, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Pitt and Rutgers. My best guess in this situation is that at least one of the last two Big Ten expansion teams would have to be a traditional rival of Texas.
March 21, 2010
Vincent:
If the Big Ten can’t get Notre Dame, don’t be surprised to see them go to 14 with Rutgers and Syracuse (which together can land the metro NY market) and Maryland (which provides the Washington/Baltimore markets, areas more traditionally attuned to college sports than NYC). Syracuse, Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State would give the Big Ten the four dominant BCS programs in the New York to D.C. corridor and plenty of new subscribers to the Big Ten Network. SU, RU and UMd also fit the Big Ten’s academic profile of being Tier I institutions that are AAU (Association of American Universities) members. This expansion isn’t only about sports, but research through the Big Ten’s academic consortium.
March 21, 2010
CanadianWolf:
Actually the biggest bucks are often derived from research grants rather than sports for tier 1 research universities such as those that currently comprise the Big Ten Conference. Michigan State, for example, recently received a one billion dollar research grant/project.
However, we are still talking about student college athletes, not professionals, thus, I think that the addition of Maryland, Syracuse & Rutgers would also prompt consideration of expanding to 16 teams so that the Big Ten East could play most of their regular season opponents closer to home than travelling to the Midwest, and vice-versa.
The Big Ten East could be made up of Boston College, Syracuse, Rutgers, Maryland, Pitt, Ohio State & Penn State and one other existing Big Ten university.
Although possible, I think that it is unlikely that any team east of Penn State will be added to the Big Ten Conference even if it expands to 14 teams due to travel distances & minor cultural differences that may result in dimunition of fan interst.
Notre Dame, Missouri & Pitt still are the most palatable to me, although, admittedly, I am a traditionalist & prefer regional rather than national rivalries at the collegiate level.
March 21, 2010
Vincent:
Actually, Syracuse, Rutgers and Maryland are probably easier to reach for most Big Ten schools than Penn State, which is located in a fairly isolated part of central Pennsylvania.
For Maryland, as an example, the distance from College Park to Big Ten schools isn’t that much further than ACC rivals, especially some of the deep south schools.
March 22, 2010
JJKANDLAK:
Most of the articles that I have read regarding Texas have implied that it would have to be a “package deal.” That is, Texas A & M would have to be invited also.
My first reaction to Texas being included was far-fethched. Since then, there have been several articles in various publiations laying out the groundwork for their inclusion. Not likely, but not a left field proposal. I do hope that the Big Ten adds a minimum of 3 teams.
March 22, 2010
NDCableGuy:
I really believe that expansion to 16 teams is possible.
To me, the major driver is expanding TV revenues. Syracuse and Rutgers together would probably be enough to force the Metro NY cable providers to carry the Big 10 network. Syracuse also brings in around 6 additional top 100 TV markets in Upstate NY and Rutgers add value to the Philadelpia market as well. I would look hard at UCONN, Hartford is a top 30 market on its own, and UCONN has appeal in both NYC & Boston (especially for hoops).
Missouri would add 4 top 100 TV markets and grows the conference to the West. That leaves one spot for Notre Dame, which would have a hard time saying no to a conference that dominated both the Northeast and Midwest to such an extent. If ND says no, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, and Nebraska are all possibles, but none of them deliver much in the way of new TV markets.
As Canadian Wolf noted, breaking up into East & West Diviisions would reduce travel tme and expense for the non-revenue sports, with regular vistis to divisional foes and rarer visits to the other division. Basketball could work like the Big East does now, home & home with 3 closest geographic rivals and 1 game against the 12 other conference members, 6 home and 6 away for a total of 18 conference games.
East: OSU, UM, MSU, ND / PSU, RUT, SYR, CONN
West: IN, PUR, NW, ILL / MINN, WISC, IOWA, MIZZOU
March 24, 2010
Andrew Jones:
Football seems to be a large focus for said expansion. I’d like to see Xavier and Butler thrown into the discussion for the same of some other sports. They’d obviously have trouble moving their football programs up, but so would U of Chicago. I’d also like to see some more Cincinnati talk for the sake of geograpy etc.
March 25, 2010
Milton Calico:
I think all the Big Ten expansion talk is overlooking a school that’s right in the league’s backyard … Kentucky. If the Big Ten is going to expand to 16 and become a super-conference, there needs to be something for everyone. Give the Western schools Missouri, give Indiana and the basketball reputation Kentucky, give Penn State and the media market lovers Pitt and Rutgers, and try to see if the depletion of the Big East makes Notre Dame cave in and become #16. If not, give it to Nebraska.
BIG TEN WEST
1) Missouri
2) Iowa
3) Minnesota
4) Wisconsin
5) Northwestern
6) Illinois
7) Purdue
8) Notre Dame (or Nebraska)
BIG TEN EAST
1) Indiana
2) Kentucky
3) Ohio State
4) Michigan
5) Michigan State
6) Penn State
7) Pitt
8) Rutgers
That is the only way going to 16 makes sense for the Big Ten. If they decide to simply stop at 12, go with Missouri, and call it a day. But if they really want to make waves, take something from everyone, and add something for everyone. Talk about shockwaves.