With two months of college basketball since I made five predictions about this season, it's time to look back at what was said and make the final revisions before the madness begins.
1. The national championship game will feature at least one Big 12 team.
I'll admit that this was based on a now apparently mistaken belief that the Texas Longhorns were a legitimate contender. The only reason this prediction still has a chance to hold true is that Kansas is still looking as strong as ever. I'll stand by this prediction and say that Kansas wins at least five tournament games.
Kansas is only half of the picture here, however, and without predicting the other team that will be playing in Lucas Oil Stadium on April 5th, I'm kind of taking the easy way out. When it comes to picking that team, I've got a pick that's not too farfetched to seem reasonable, but won't make me any friends in Lexington.
Kansas won't be playing Kentucky for the national championship, and Syracuse won't be there either. The runner-up of this year's tournament will be the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Why, you might ask? There are many reasons, ranging from the best perimeter shooter in the nation, Jon Diebler, to the electrifying William Bufford. But for the most convincing reason why, read the next prediction.
2. John Wall won't win National Player of the Year, and neither will Sherron Collins.
I did have a specific player in mind when I wrote this, and now that he's lived up to his potential, I've got no problem saying that Evan Turner is clearly the best player in college basketball. John Wall and Sherron Collins are both great players, but Turner stands head-and-shoulders above them both.
At this point, it's mainly become a two-horse race, with Turner and Wall pulling away from Collins and the field. Early in the season, it looked like Wall might prove this prediction wrong, and it's not even that he's gotten worse since that time, it's just that Evan Turner is playing at a level that is simply astounding.
A quick statistical comparison between the two shows that Turner beats Wall by 3 points and 5 rebounds per game, while Wall averages just under 1 assist more per game. These numbers on their own don't mean Turner is better than Wall, but they do seem to say that at the very least, Turner is as good as Wall.
The real proof is found in what Turner means to his team. Without him, they dropped out of the top 25, and since his return, they've climbed close to the top five. John Wall helps Kentucky, but with players like Eric Bledsoe, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson on the same team, he's not quite as critical to his team's success.
I don't buy some of the recent hype about Turner getting drafted before Wall, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't rather have Turner as my go-to-guy.
3. The Kentucky Wildcats will win 30 games this year.
It seemed fairly obvious then, and it seems like a lock now. Barring one of the worst collapses in history, the Wildcats will have 30 wins by the end of the season, and they'll probably reach that mark before Selection Sunday.
Not really much to add to this one, although my new prediction for the Wildcats' win total might prove to be more risky than the last one. I'll revise the old prediction by adding that the Wildcats won't reach 35 wins.
4. The UNLV Runnin' Rebels will play in the Elite Eight.
This prediction was based on the amazing play of UNLV's guards, who, since that time, have been considerably less impressive. Only one of those guards, Tre'Von Willis, is averaging 10 or more points per game right now.
There is a glimmer of hope here for the Runnin' Rebels, and for this prediction, and that is the athletic play of this team. Even in most of their losses, UNLV showed the ability to make a run at different points in the game, and teams that can consistently do that generally have sustained success in March.
This team has the ability to top 100 points if all of their players show up to play, and that's just enough for me to stick to my guns on this one.
5. The Gonzaga Bulldogs won't finish first in the WCC.
I'm honestly not sure what possessed me to make this prediction. The Bulldogs will win the WCC, and probably one or two games in the tournament as well.
This is a lesson in not buying into early season struggles, and the only prediction I'll retract completely.
We can't be certain about any of this, but we do know one thing for sure.
March Madness is here, and not a moment too soon.
March 6, 2010
Chris:
Your description as to why Turner should be POY is an argument about a different type of award. You say that without him, his team drops out of top 25, which is certainly agreeable, however that is describing MVP, not POY. While their numbers are comparable, Wall is putting those kind of numbers up on a team that has so many other options to score. He’s playing alongside another pointguard that would start almost anywhere else, and has to give up points to 2 other potential all americans. He is not the MVP, although KY would be far worse off with him, but he still should be Player of the Year
March 6, 2010
ryan:
so ur saying the Ohio state buckeyes will be the runner up well what happens if they play Kentucky and there peremiter shot is not falling? do you actually think when there tallest post player is 6 ft 8 that they would stand a chance versus Demarcus cousins and p-pat and Daniel Orton?
March 7, 2010
debra:
wall is better than turner any way you spin it. sorry you are wrong
March 7, 2010
Mike:
POY award goes to the player you would pick first if you were starting a team from scratch. Evan Turner is a great player, but most people would make John Wall their first pick - just like the NBA will.
March 7, 2010
Chris:
Jump in Paul, explain how your argument for MVP fits the POY discussion? Oh, and would Turner pull down that many rebounds on a team with Cousins and Patterson? Not a chance. Wall doesn’t need to rebound comparably to Turner for his team to win. Look at Wall’s stats in the final 2-5 minutes of games…he is clutch.
March 7, 2010
Mike:
You’re not going to back out on #4 while you’ve got the chance? Sorry, but it’s ABSURD to think that UNLV will play in the round of eight.
March 8, 2010
Andrew Jones:
I’ll disagree on Ohio St. making a deep run. They only have 8 players who average more than 7 minutes a game and the three who don’t start are at 12 or 13 minutes per game. They just don’t have the depth to be reliable playing two games in three days multiple weekends in a row. Also, who has Ohio St. beaten outside of the Big Ten that is any good? They lost to UNC, Butler and West Virginia. They beat Florida St. and Cal. Unimpressive. I don’t know why people are so high on Ohio St.