A Look at the 2010 NFL Combine

With the NFL Combine bearing down on Indianapolis, the 2010 NFL Season has reached its "official" unofficial beginning. While late February marks the starting point for your prototypical barrage of mock drafts and player rankings, I wanted to take a fresh approach to the NFL's draft season by painting a more generic picture of the draft landscape.

Most mock drafts are predicated on two primary principals: relative player value and team need. In this article, both will be discussed, only not in the same direct sense you would see in most mock drafts. No, Seth Doria, this is not my way of skirting the "no mock draft guarantee" I boldly — and foolishly — threw on the table during last spring's First-Annual Sports Central Mock Draft Competition (which, I am compelled to report, I was systematically destroyed in). Rather than a straight up, team-by-team, player-by-player assessment, this article will offer more in the way of players on the bubble, overrated and underrated and potential team movement scenarios.

As the combine is set to get underway, several players enter the fray with something to say as they wait for their day (okay, this rhyming is getting gay; sorry, couldn't resist that last part ... I digress). While I could use this space to tell you that Ndamukong Suh won't be the first DT picked in the draft, but will be the most productive, that Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford will be a top-10 pick, but won't play a down in 2010, and that no true linebacker will be selected in the top 15 picks of this draft, none of that has anything to do with the results of the scouting combine this February 24 thru March 2. Of more note relative to the combine is the potential for a handful of name-brand wide receivers to make or break their signing bonuses and the jockeying that could take place amongst the defensive ends and defensive backs participating in workouts and drills.

Many pundits will rail about how unimportant this combine actually is. They'll tell you annually several key players don't work out and quite typically no standard-bearing QB risks his implied value by participating in the combine drills, so what value is there really to the event? Well, ask the laundry list of fringe prospects that shoot up the draft boards with strong combine performances (Amobe Okoye, Troy Williamson, Kyle Boller, Darrius Heyward-Bey) how important it can be, and ask those that were victimized by weak performances at the combine, ultimately costing them millions in bonus opportunities (Shonn Green, Andre Smith, Terry Bradshaw, Aaron Rodgers).

Further, the facts bear out the import of the combine. Consider these numbers: 96% of players selected in the first three rounds of the 2009 draft (included all 32 first round picks) attended the combine. In 2008, that number was 100%. Roughly 85% of all drafted players have been combine attendees in recent years, which is a clear indicator that it really does matter. Only about 30% of annual combine attendees go undrafted, which really is a remarkable number when you consider just over 325 kids are invited each year. It is true that in many cases drills and workouts aren't on the agenda for key potential draft picks (similar to the situations faced by QBs Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, and Colt McCoy this season), but it is still of equal importance that the mental tests be conducted and face-to-face interviews held between players and prospective suitors, all stuff that happens at the combine.

In 2010, there is no doubt that NFL Network will highlight the workouts of Florida's Tim Tebow. They will also be sure to introduce Central Michigan's do-everything QB Dan LeFevour to the audience as he sprints down the 40-yard race track and shows you how good he looks (metaphorically) in shorts and a t-shirt. But of much greater impact will be a handful of wide outs who are trying to separate themselves from the pack, because frankly, this combine will provide all the fodder needed for a team to determine if they are looking at the next Michael Crabtree (tons of potential, equal amounts of attitude), Heyward-Bey (fast as hell, hands of stone), or Louis Murphy (fourth-round pick who emerged as his team's most consistent pass catcher) as draft weekend descends on the NFL in late April.

Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant has the size teams covet and the pedigree of a proven commodity, but lingering maturity concerns mixed with mediocre speed credentials make him somewhat of a question mark. If his 40 times are better than expected, that may be enough to vault him up the draft board, perhaps even as far as a top-10 pick (Tampa, Washington, and Kansas City may all be looking hard in the direction of a WR). Even if he stays at or around the 4.5 range he has historically hit, he could make himself a palatable option should he dispel any character concerns during the interview process. If he fails at both of these opportunities, there is a very real likelihood that he may wind up a late first round or early second round selection, which I am sure is something he and his agent haven't considered in declaring for the draft early.

Like Bryant, Notre Dame's Golden Tate is jumping the college scene before his senior season. Tate is a solid citizen, a strong student, and, by all indications, a great teammate. His consistency shows time and time again on film and the only real question is his height. Many times, receivers measuring 5'10" and shorter play taller than that (think Chris Chambers), are lightning-quick (think Santana Moss), or are cagey and resilient (think Wes Welker). Tate is none of these things. He has a muscular build, slightly above average speed, standard wingspan, and is not a particularly sharp route-runner. For these reasons, it will be the tape measure that tells a large part of Golden's draft day story. If he measures up under 5'10", you can forget about an early round selection. But if the tale-of-the-tape remains closer to the listed 70-inches, than the "undersized" tag may be overlooked in light of his productivity and demeanor.

A pair of receivers, also underclassman, suffer more from not receiving marquee billing at their respective institutions of higher learning more than any particular physical shortcoming. USC's Damian Williams is one that has been lost in the glitz and glamour of being a Trojan player. So many stars, so little time to exert oneself as a difference-maker is a phrase that has rung true for this solid pass catcher. Williams has good size, decent speed, and an ability to find open space, but with the multitude of personalities in that program, his soft-spoken demeanor has left him a relative unknown. In Cincinnati, receiver Mardy Gilyard has been as critical to his team's success as any other player in the nation, but the Bearcats' lack of television exposure has left many wondering exactly who this kid is. Both players will need to put on a show to draw attention to themselves at some point during the combine, as each has clear first-round potential.

The last group of receivers that bear watching each play for big-time programs and have been there for most of the key plays their respective teams have made in recent years, but really remain question marks in terms of their true value as something other than "system" performers. Texas's Jordan Shipley is their top pass-catcher, their key return man and their holder on special teams. While his profile doesn't scream of someone who would be a surefire success on the next level, he has an opportunity to really set himself apart by posting a blazing 40 time and legitimizing himself as something other than a guy who had a great rapport with the QB of a pass-heavy college offense.

Likewise, Florida's Riley Cooper is big, smart, and far from slow, but as Tebow's roommate throughout college, many wonder if his production — particularly in critical moments — was more a result of his personal relationship with his talented signal-caller than of individual raw talent. Cooper needs to show up in a big way at the combine and say all the right things if he wants to vault himself from a day three afterthought to a legit day one or two option. Finally, LSU's Brandon Lafell put up an underwhelming 2009 campaign after showing signs of stardom in 2008. His size will buoy any potential free-fall (6'2", 210 lbs), but Lafell could do a lot towards restoring himself as a must-have asset if he shows good hands and strong effort at the combine.

While wide receivers stand to gain (or lose) the most during this week's combine activities, there are a bundle of defensive ends that will be jockeying for position as well throughout the weekend. Georgia Tech's Derrick Morgan, South Florida's Jason Pierre-Paul, Florida's Carlos Dunlap, TCU's Jerry Hughes, Clemson's Ricky Sapp, and Texas's Segrio Kindle are a half-dozen prospects that many teams have ranked nearly identically. Each of the six are swing types who could play either defensive end in a 4-3 set or rush linebacker in the more common 3-4 style of defense. All are roughly the same size and about the same speed. Kindle, Sapp, Hughes, and Morgan have been the more productive of the bunch, but Dunlap and Pierre-Paul clearly grade out better on paper relative to measurables.

This is a boon for teams picking in the 12-18 range, as each of those teams (Miami, San Francisco [two picks], Seattle, New York Giants, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh) all have clear needs at either rush end or rush linebacker. Each of the six also has the talent to be a top-10 pick, but realistically, only as many as three, maybe four, will hear their names called that early. This translates to a battle royal at the combine where each could set himself apart from his counterparts by nailing the drills, showing up big in the workout and captivating teams during the interviews. This will prove to be perhaps the most exciting position to watch during the NFL Network's coverage as this group, even those outside of the top six, is chalk-full of athletic ability and raw talent.

The third and final positional battle that I will be paying special interest to during the combine takes place in the defensive backfield. While the ranks are quite thin — surprisingly so, actually — at cornerback, their counterparts at the safety position feature a handful of really promising potential difference makers whose ultimate draft position may well shake up the entire draft board. Of the corners, Florida's Joe Haden and Florida State's Patrick Robinson probably grade out as the only true first-round talents, though Oklahoma's Dominique Franks could parlay his good size (6'0") into a late round one selection should he have a strong combine performance and Boise State's undersized-but-productive Kyle Wilson could also create value for himself if he is able to translate his toughness and consistency into the drills. The real show will be from those safeties.

Tennessee's Eric Berry is by far the most highly regarded guy heading in. Many mock drafts have Berry going as early as third or fourth overall (to Tampa or Washington, respectively) and his film performance will certainly back that status up. Berry is everywhere on tape, makes big plays, dishes out huge hits, covers incredibly well, and handles himself perfectly in run defense. He is rarely out of position and honestly doesn't need to perform well, if at all, at the combine to remain a top-10 pick. However, there are a pair of his contemporaries that could cement themselves as his equal, if not superior, should they really wow at the combine. Texas's Earl Thomas has shown that he is as good a coverage safety as there is in the game. If he is able to have a strong showing relative to the his strength, vertical jump, and 40-yard dash, Thomas (great last name, by the way) could leapfrog Berry as the top safety prospect.

An even greater wild card is USC's physical specimen, Taylor Mays. Mays was a premier prospect heading into the 2009 season, but spotty, inconsistent performances and a tendency to be out of position from time-to-time marred his value a bit as the season progressed. At 6'3", 230 lbs, there is no physical equal (relative to his position) anywhere in the draft, but Mays really has to be able to explain his spotty performance during the interviews if he wants to wind up in the top 10. Make no mistake, Miami will snatch him up at 12 if he makes it that far (assuming Thomas and/or Berry don't fall, as well), but Mays could and really should be a top-eight pick and this combine could save that standing for him should he perform brilliantly.

LSU's Chad Jones and South Florida's Nate Allen both also have a shot to move up to the middle of the first round as Houston, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh all may be looking to grab a difference-making safety in round one, but they would really have to separate themselves from the second tier of prospects if they want to solidify this standing. Should any safety fall past Houston at 20, expect a more precipitous fall as the 20-32 range will be where lots of receivers, running backs, and corners find themselves being chosen, leaving the leftover safeties as early-to-mid second round fodder.

Having encapsulated a few of the key positions to watch during the combine, this is a good time to take a cursory review of the teams looking to make a splash during the draft. While there is chatter each and every year, it appears that this is the first year in a while where all five of the top five teams picking in the draft actually do intend to trade back a bit should they find a proverbial dance partner. St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa, Washington, and KC all have no shortage of holes, and each seems comfortable at the position that would slot into their respective pick in assessing player value.

Only St. Louis, who will undoubtedly snag either Suh or Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy should they stand pat at No. 1, has a need at DT that outweighs needs at other positions, and even they are said to be infatuated with the potential of Sam Bradford. Everyone knows the trouble with picking a QB first overall, so don't be surprised to see the Rams take a questionable deal to slide down a couple of spots (with Tampa, perhaps) if they do indeed decide that Sam is their man.

Detroit needs help at DT, but has more pressing issues at defensive end and defensive back and could use the extra picks a trade down would net. Tampa has holes all over, but if they cannot score either Suh or McCoy, both of whom they covet, Tampa may not be comfortable taking the safety they prefer (if you ask today, that would be Tennessee's Berry) this high, so a trade down would be the only sound option.

Likewise with Washington, unless the safeties do stand out at the compound and in their pro days, the Redskins would be hard-pressed to justify such a lofty pick on traditionally undervalued position, so they too may look to slide down a bit with a team looking to land a Bradford or a Jimmy Clausen. Kansas City is the likeliest of them all to stand pat at No. 5, but in the unlikely event the draft board falls McCoy, (Oklahoma OT Russell) Okung, Berry, Bryant you would have to expect the Chiefs to get tons of calls from those who love Suh and with the three players they truly covet (Berry, Okung, Bryant) unavailable, they would almost certainly pull the trigger on a deal.

Recent player moves have also impacted the draft landscape. With LaDainian Tomlinson departing San Diego officially, you have to think the Chargers are looking hard at Clemson's C.J. Spillar in hopes that he slips to them in round one (28th pick). The real question will be how high they have USC's Joe McKnight — a very similar player to Spillar — who may be a more reasonable option in round two should they expect him to remain on the board that long. The other notable move came up in Buffalo with the retirement of starting OT Brad Butler. While it wouldn't have taken a rocket scientist to understand the Bills needed an offensive lineman in this year's draft, that need is now at critical level and it is most certain that Buffalo will go that route with their first pick (ninth overall), which will further avail some of the players I've mentioned above to the teams just outside of the top 10.

The final point of discussion also involved potential roster moves that are bound to create ripples in the draft day scene. On March 5th, several veterans of note are set to become free agents should their teams not tag them with the dreaded franchise denotation. Of those, Carolina's Julius Peppers, Buffalo's Terrell Owens, Oakland's Richard Seymour, Tampa's Antonio Bryant, Miami's Jason Taylor, Cincinnati's Roy Williams, and New Orlean's Darren Sharper are the most notable because of their implied worth and the positions they play.

If any of those players do in fact leave their current teams, they will open up a real need at their respective position in a draft year that is heavy with players who play those same positions. Likewise, teams who sign any of those mentioned will be indirectly indicating that they would not be drafting at those positions, at least not early on. Needless to say, the signings that are to come down over the coming weeks are certainly not to be ignored, and the potentially high number of impact veterans changing teams could well make for as unpredictable and entertaining an NFL draft as we've seen in recent years.

I, for one, cannot wait to post my very own mock draft! Sorry, Seth, bet or no bet, I just can't resist.