It’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Prep Time

With just a week left before the early days of Championship Week(s), and just a few more to the NCAA tournament, you should be well on your way to thinking about your bracket. Just like with fantasy baseball drafts, you don't wait until the week before to see what's going on. You get ahead of the game, start watching teams and conferences you normally don't, and start looking for weaknesses or strengths that may lead to bracket busters.

As an example, witness Kentucky's 58-56 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday night. The headline on ESPN read, "No. 2 Kentucky turns to D as Wall denies Vandy." But if not for some dismal last-second offense by Vandy, the headline could very well have read, "Kentucky free-throw woes cost Wildcats road win at Vandy."

With 11 seconds left and just a one-point lead, Eric Bledsoe missed two free throws that could have stretched the lead to three and ensure the Wildcats no worse than overtime. Then, after John Jenkins' horrible three attempt that was blocked by John Wall, Wall again had a chance to push the lead back to three, but missed the first of his two free throws, giving Vandy a very real shot to tie the game with an open A.J. Ogilvy shot with two seconds left.

The fact Vandy couldn't capitalize on their opportunities to steal the game at home shouldn't hide the fact the Wildcats will be a one seed in the tournament with a season average of just 67 percent from the free throw line. Ask John Calipari how much that can bite you in the rear when you need it the most.

(In fairness, that Memphis team did make it to the title game despite shooting only 61.4 percent from the free-throw line. But last year, teams with the better free throw shooting went 7-0 from the Elite Eight through the title game. So it's not like it doesn't matter.)

Of course, this doesn't mean you should pick against the Wildcats in the second round. Barring any crazy matchup issues, penciling in Kentucky into the Final Four will be one of the first things I do with my bracket. But when you're making big decisions in mid-March, these are the things you need to take into consideration.

Here are five others:

5. Let's start with an easy one: don't sleep on the Cornell Big Red. Everybody should have figured this out after they almost beat Kansas in Lawrence, but Cornell is for real. And it's not just Ryan Wittman, who is a great shooter, but by no means a one-man-show. Wittman has gone off for 27 and 23 in his last two games, but had not topped 20 in his previous 10 games. Cornell went 9-1 in those 10. Center Jeff Foote provides size and stability in the post, and point guard Louis Dale provides a steady hand running the show. All three are seniors.

Sound like a 12-5 upset in the making to anybody else?

4. Whoever comes out of the Pac-10, pick against them in the first round. There's not a single team in that conference that you can trust with your bracket on the line. It doesn't matter who it is, or who they're playing. Pick against them.

3. Find a way to watch the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. Right now, a whopping five A-10 teams have a shot of making it in to the dance: Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, and Rhode Island.

Of the five, I like Xavier the most. Not only are they the highest-scoring and best-shooting team in the conference, but their perimeter defense is holding opponents to just a 27.6 percent rate from three. They have the feel of a team that surprises into the Sweet 16 or even Elite Eight, then gets blown-out by a high seed who puts up 95 on them. In the meantime, expect a lot of "remember when Jordan Crawford dunked on LeBron?" comments.

2. The one team in the A-10 I can't wait to pick against is Richmond, who is getting out-boarded by nearly 5 rebounds per game this season. Sometimes stats just leap off the page. This is one of them. If you can't rebound in a close game in the tournament, you can't win.

1. Every year, there are a few players who put their teams on their back for a run. Two years ago, it was Stephen Curry carrying Davidson to the Elite Eight. Last year, Scottie Reynolds willed Villanova to the Final Four with his leadership and timely buckets.

So who will it be this year? Nobody knows for sure. Otherwise, they wouldn't be surprises.

Cornell's Wittman and Xavier's Crawford are two good guesses. Here are a few others: Evan Turner, Ohio State (leads Big Ten in scoring at 19.5 and viable candidate for POY); Denis Clemente, Kansas State (Jacob Pullen is the Wildcats' leading scorer, but K-State will need Clemente to get hot from deep to advance far); Jimmer Fredette, BYU (not such a funny name when he's dropping 49 on you like he did Arizona earlier this year, he's at his best in big games); James Anderson, Oklahoma State (averaging 22.8 points per game, including four for 30+ in his last eight games); and Randy Culpepper, UTEP (can be hot or cold, but when hot, nearly unstoppable; dropped 45 and 29 in his last two games against East Carolina and Tulsa, respectively).

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