Was it Down Under, or Upside Down?

A very well-informed tennis fan who frequents my office stopped by on Monday to chat about the Australian Open. We talked about the different aspects of the first and second weeks, and he was quite impressed with the showing of Li Na and Jie Zheng. I am, too. The Chinese women both made it to the semifinals of this major tournament, and the first time two Chinese players have made it that far in the singles in a major ever. That alone was a good story.

Meanwhile, Rafael Nadal injured himself, and so far, it doesn't look too good. My friend has discussed many times how Nadal's game stresses even his young body to excess, and last year he started to show these signs of wear with tendinitis. This time, it was a small tear to the back of his knee that forced him to resign in his match with finalist Andy Murray. The current word is four weeks of recovery. That sounds ambitious to me. Hopefully, this is not the start of a career plagued by these maladies. He is so young and has a ton of potential left.

One question my friend asked was quite poignant. He asked why is it now the elder players, both men and women, seem to be dominating the game? Very good question. It was not too long ago that if you made it to 27 or 28, you were near the end of your career. With rare exception, Jimmy Connors or Martina Navratilova, for example, major titles and tour domination was going to the younger every year. It started with Chris Evert, who at 16 blew the women's game away, then followed by a plethora of stars until Jennifer Capriati came on at 14. Then the rules changed to prevent very young players from being on the tour. Capriati, at 14, was better them most of the women twice her age.

But it is very different the past year or so. Roger Federer has dominated, and at 28, seems to have plenty of dominance left in him. Serena and Venus are still there, too, with Serena also capturing her fifth Aussie Open at the ripe old age of 28. Venus has slipped a notch, but at 29, is still head and shoulders above most of the tour.

Then there are Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin. While there is already a precedent of women taking a leave from the professional game to return to tennis, with the very rare exception, most return, but never regain their prominence. In her first major tournament back in competition, Kim Clijsters stunned the world by winning her second U.S. Open. And now Justine Henin, after spending time away from the game, has picked up exactly where she left off by making it to the Aussie final and nearly winning it — in only her first big tournament back! Kim and Justine are both 26, but even that seems old by professional women's tennis standards.

So it is a very interesting question to ponder. Why is it that older players now dominate where younger players seemed to control the game? In my mind, the answer is simple. All things being equal, the player with more experience will always win over the players with less experience. And in the men's and women's games, there is so much parity that all things are equal. When you look at both tours, even the style of play is the same. Just about every player pounds groundstrokes from the baseline, rarely approaches the net, they all have about the same serve and for the most part, all train and practice the same.

You've heard it from me before, Nick Bollettieri ruined tennis. If you think about it, Elena Dementieva doesn't even have a serve to speak of, yet is in the top five and won a tournament leading to the Aussie Open. Had she not run into Henin in the second round, she probably would have made it deep into the tournament.

So, since everyone plays the same, has literally the same strokes and strategy, the more experienced player should come out on top. Robin Soderling had a career year last year at the age of 25 because of that. He was never a factor before, but managed to beat Nadal in the French and go to the French final, he made the fourth round at Wimbledon, but fell to Federer, made the quarters of the U.S. Open, but lost to Fed again, and ended the year with a semifinal berth at the ATP year-end Tour Championships. When you look at his draws, most of the players he played had a similar game, and he was just older and had more time on tour.

Is that it? I am confident in my answer, but you can never be sure. It is clear, though, that this year will be dominated by the tour elders. Welcome back, Justine, keep it coming, Kim, rock on, Roger, go A-RoD. Here's to the older, wiser players. It gives me hope...