Eighth is Enough

This is a fun time in the NBA. It is the height of speculation season around the league.

Which players will be named to the all-star team? Which players will be traded at the deadline? Which coaches are going to get fired? Which teams are going to tank to try and get a better draft pick?

But the most important question that can be raised around the league right now: which teams will round out the playoff picture in each conference?

With the league now past the halfway point of the season, "hot starts" and "better than we thought" are phrases of the past and it's time to look ahead to other clichés like "can they keep it up?" and "do they have what it takes?"

The second half of the NBA season is a different animal than the first half. Certain games have more importance in January and February than they did in November and December. As proof, look no further than the wildly-entertaining Thunder/Grizzlies game on Friday night.

The game certainly had a playoff atmosphere, and both teams played like they knew the importance of the game. It came down to the very last possession, and when it was all said and done, it looked like the Thunder knew that this was more than just simply a road game in January that got away.

For the first time all season, the Thunder and Grizzlies played a game that had playoff implications. For the two youngest teams in the league, it was the first time most of the players on the floor had tasted that their entire career. But if they can continue to play at a high level, it won't be the last.

And while teams like the Lakers and Cavs will be playing for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs for the rest of the season (important, but not exactly life or death), there are plenty of other teams that have a lot more riding on every game for the rest of the season.

Today, we'll examine a few of those teams. More specifically, the four teams that will be fighting for the last playoff spot in the West: Houston, Memphis, Oklahoma City, and New Orleans.

To be fair, those aren't the only four teams that could potentially finish eighth in the West and get the final playoff spot. As it stands right now, Houston would round out the playoff bracket, but they are just a game back of the sixth- and seventh-seeded Jazz and Suns, and only a game and a half back of the fifth-seeded Spurs. It's conceivable that one of those teams could fall back to the eighth spot, but I wouldn't bet on it.

On the flip side of things, the Clippers are four games back, and that's not exactly insurmountable with still 39 games left to play.

But for arguments sake, today we're going to look at the four teams that are within immediate striking distance of the eighth and final playoff spot.

Houston holds the spot for the time being, but Memphis and Oklahoma City are just a half game back, with New Orleans sitting a full game out of the playoffs.

Let's now take a more in depth look at these teams to try and figure out which of these four teams is the most likely to end up in the playoffs, and which three are going to end up on the outside looking in, with just a handful of ping pong balls in the draft lottery to show for their efforts this season.

Houston Rockets

Currently — 8th seed

Why They Can Make the Playoffs — Toughness

Ask most people in and around the league, and they'll tell you that no team plays harder than the Houston Rockets. They are gritty, determined, and play as a team. The not only lead the league in floor burns, but they rank up there in other important categories, as well.

The Rockets have the sixth-most offensive rebounds in the league, which helps make up for the fact that they rank 24th in field goal percentage. They are seventh in the league in assists, a testament to the unselfish brand of basketball that they've played all season.

They also rank in the top 10 in three pointers made, meaning that they can always shoot themselves back into a game if they get too far behind.

What They Must Overcome — No "go-to guy"

Let's face it, this is a superstar league. As nice a story as the "team game" makes, it doesn't result in much success. If you want to win and win big in this league, you have to have a superstar. You need a player than can put the team on his back and say, "I got this" when the game is on the line.

For as deep and as well-rounded as the Rockets are, they don't have anything close to a "go-to guy." The Rockets don't have anyone that ranks in the top 20 in points, rebounds, or assists. When the going gets tough, there's no telling who the Rockets can count on to get it going for them.

Getting solid contributions from everyone on the roster is nice, but for my money, I want a player that I can just get the ball to and get out of the way and let him win the game in the final four minutes.

The Rockets don't have that, and in my opinion, it's going to end up being the reason that they fall short of making the playoffs.

Prediction — The Houston Rockets will remain competitive, but unless they move Tracy McGrady for a proven scorer, they won't have enough firepower to maintain this 46-win pace, and fall just short of the playoffs (although still finishing well ahead of the 32 wins I projected in the preseason).

Oklahoma City Thunder

Currently — ½-game behind Houston for the 8th seed

Why They Can Make the Playoffs — Kevin Durant

What more can you say about this guy? He's had more 30-point games (25) than games in which he's scored under 30 (19). He's become a much better defender than he was a year ago, and he's leading the team in rebounding at 7.3 per game.

He's not just an up-and-comer and a surefire all-star; he's a bonafide superstar. And he's only 21-years-old.

What They Must Overcome — Inexperience

If you want to be more specific: inexperience at point guard. For as much as Russell Westbrook brings to the table, he has absolutely killed them late in games this season.

Here is just a sample of some of things that I've posted on the Sports Central Twitter page about Russell Westbrook over the past week:

"I believe Russell Westbrook just gave us two examples of what Doc Rivers would call "hero shots" in that game."

"I like Russell Westbrook's game, but not nearly as much as Russell Westbrook does."

"Surprise surprise. Westbrook takes a big shot for the Thunder ... and misses. Boobie Gibson makes OKC pay."

I don't want to sound like I'm piling on the guy, because believe it or not, I really do like Westbrook's game. He's lightning-quick, finishes well at the basket, and even his mid-range game is growing on me.

But with the game on the line, you can almost bet on Russell Westbrook taking the big shot. One day he's going to realize that it's okay to differ to arguably the best pure scorer in the game when your team absolutely has to have a basket.

But it doesn't look like that day is going to come this season.

Prediction — I can see this season for the Thunder playing out exactly how last season played out for the Bobcats. If you remember, Charlotte was right in the thick of the race for the eighth seed last season, then completely collapsed in the final month, losing seven of their last eight games, and missing the playoffs.

The Bobcats learned for that experience, made some roster adjustments, and now find themselves right in the thick of things, comfortably in the playoff picture in the east, just a game and a half back of the fifth seed.

That's the Thunder this season. They're really talented, but really raw. They'll learn from the inevitable mistakes they'll make in April and come back stronger than ever next season.

Unfortunately, that means one more trip to the lottery for Durant before he gets his first taste of playoff basketball.

New Orleans Hornets

Currently — One game back of Houston for the 8th deed

Why They Can Make the Playoffs — Experience

Remember, it's only been a season and a half since the Hornets finished with the second-best record in the West.

They got off to a rocky start this season (one that ultimately cost their coach his job), but they've turned it around lately. They are 20-14 under new coach Jeff Bower, and they are 9-4 in January. It's like the flipped the switch and remembered what it takes to play winning basketball again.

And of course, they still have Chris Paul. He's just quietly going about his business, putting up his usual 20-10 every night and coasting his way to his third straight All-Star Game. It's hard to bet against this guy. He's as fierce a competitor as there is in the league, and he's got the talent to back it up.

What They Must Overcome — Their schedule

There could be a different reason that the Hornets have had such a good month of January: the schedule-makers were very easy on them. Of the 13 games that they've played this month, only four have come against teams that would currently make the playoffs.

You know what that means: it's about to get a lot tougher.

If the Hornets are going to make the playoffs, they are going to have to run the gauntlet in the final month and a half of the season.

Starting March 1st, 15 of their final 22 games are against teams that currently have a winning record, including a five games in seven days West Coast road trip that is immediately followed up by a five-game home stand that features games against the Mavericks, Cavaliers, Blazers, and Lakers.

The Hornets had better keep taking advantage of their soft schedule while it lasts, because soon enough things are about to change drastically.

Prediction — The Hornets dug themselves too much of a hole with their 3-8 start. They are starting to hit their stride right now, but once the schedule toughens up, it's going to be hard to keep pace with the other three teams they are fighting with.

With money being such a big factor for this team, I don't see them making a push at the trade deadline for any big name players that could put them over the top because, let's face it, big-name players tend to make big bucks, and the Hornets are in no position to be spending big bucks right now.

Expect a close-but-no-cigar season for the Hornets followed up by an offseason filled with a lot of soul-searching and (most likely) some house-cleaning as they try to build a team decent enough to entice Chris Paul to stick around once his contract is up.

Memphis Grizzlies

Currently — ½-game back of Houston For the eighth seed

Why They Can Make the Playoffs — Offense

Averaging 104 points per game (fourth in the league), the Grizzlies are loaded with talent on the offensive side of the ball. They have five players that average double figures, and Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay at 20.9 and 20.6 points per game, respectively, rank 12th and 15th in the league in scoring. Throw in the fact that O.J. Mayo (18.1 points per game) can get crazy-hot at any time and they are one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league.

The Grizzlies take the third most free throws per game of any team in the league, which is the easiest way to prevent any prolonged scoring droughts. They also average the most offensive rebounds per game, which means that even when their shots aren't falling they still find ways to constantly put pressure on opposing defenses.

What They Must Overcome — Defense

For as good as Memphis is with the ball, they are equally as bad on defense. They give up 103.9 points per game (seventh most in the league), and opponents are shooting 48% from the floor against them (only Golden State and New Jersey are worse).

As a team, Memphis has committed the third fewest amount of fouls of any team in the league, which leads me to believe that they are simply too soft on the inside. Obviously, committing fouls and allowing a team to beat you from the free throw line isn't exactly a recipe for success, but it sends a message to the opposing team that it's not going to be easy to score around the basket, which in turn could force a team to shoot from the outside more.

The good news is that improving on defense as the season goes on is a lot easier than improving on offense. Defensive specialists come much cheaper than elite scorers, so it theory it should be easier to land one at the trade deadline, much like how the Thunder acquired Thabo Sefolosha from the Bulls last season.

Also, an improvement on defense doesn't necessarily have to come by adding a new player. Sometimes, all it takes is a renewed commitment. Lionel Hollins has done a great job with this team so far. If he can get them to commit to playing harder on the defensive end for the second half of the season by tempting them with the real possibility of a playoff berth, we could be looking at a playoff team in the making.

Prediction — It won't be easy, but in my opinion, I think Memphis has the best shot at making the playoffs of any of these four teams.

They defend their home-court well, 16-5 overall to be exact, and they've won a franchise-record 10 consecutive home games. Like most middle of the pack teams, they struggle on the road, but they've developed a swagger and confidence that they can't be beat at home, which could lead to some huge wins late in the season.

The Grizzlies are going to need to continue to play well at home and rack up all the wins that they can in Memphis: eight of their final 12 games are away from home. But I believe that their recent success at home has this team thinking that they can beat anyone, and if they can carry that confidence over into road games, they could get some big wins away from home in the second half of the season.

With road games against bottom-feeders like Detroit, New Jersey, Minnesota, New York, and Washington all coming up in the next month, I believe that Memphis is going to turn things around away from home, continue to take care of business at the FedEx Forum, and slide into the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.

It looks like getting the eighth seed will earn the Grizzlies the right to get swept by the Lakers, which isn't exactly the best prize a team can ask for, but when your franchise has never won a playoff series, just getting in is a victory in itself.

When you're the youngest team in the NBA, as the Grizzlies are, you gotta start the process of making your team relevant again somewhere.

For this team, in this season, eighth is enough.