NFL Divisional Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* A devastating earthquake rocked the island of Haiti last week. The NFL is one of many organizations supporting aid to the region. For an easy way to donate to the Red Cross efforts, you can text "Haiti" to 90999 and $10 will be added to your next phone bill.

* Chicago Bears DE Gaines Adams died of cardiac arrest Sunday morning. Adams, a former first-round pick of the Buccaneers, was 26.

* Bill Cowher needs to stop drinking on the set. This Saturday, he referred to the Colts Antoine Bethea as Elvin Bethea, talked about the Colts' no-huddle defense, and called Robert Mathis "Reggie." After the games, Chin.

* In the fourth quarter of the Baltimore Bowl, Greg Gumbel called a receiver open. He was double-covered and the pass intended for him was intercepted. I am pretty tired of announcers calling every receiver "open" or "wide-open."

* At the beginning of the season, new Denver defensive coordinator Mike Nolan was a genius. Now he's not with the team anymore.

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Divisional Roundups

Cardinals @ Saints

Turnovers are always important, but they seemed to be especially so in this year's divisional round. All four victorious teams won the turnover battle, a combined +9 in this round and +18 for the playoffs as a whole. That means that so far this postseason, the winning team has an average advantage of +2.25 turnovers.

The Cardinals were +8 during their Super Bowl run last season, and +2 in their win over Green Bay last week. Protecting the ball and forcing turnovers have been keys to Arizona's success, and that fell apart with two early turnovers that effectively doomed their chances against New Orleans. Arizona also lost two starting defensive backs before halftime. It would be easy to say that Arizona lost because of injuries and turnovers.

There's some truth to that, but it would diminish the excellence of the Saints' play. In particular, their offensive line completely outplayed Arizona's front seven. Reggie Bush had perhaps the best game of his career, looking like the player we all thought he would be coming out of college. Bush and the Cardinals' Tim Hightower, who scored on the first play from scrimmage, gained a combined 171 yards on a total of 11 rushes.

The Saints won by 31, so let's not pretend this game was ever likely to end in an Arizona win, but it's hard not to think that the Cardinals were affected by last week's overtime win against Green Bay. They looked tired, beat up, and unfocused in New Orleans. Also, for future reference, please don't trust any playoff predictions I make involving the Cardinals. In 8 years covering the NFL, I am 0-6 predicting Arizona postseason games and 52-27 for all others.

Ravens @ Colts

All season, the blueprint for keeping things close against the Colts has been to play good defense and control the clock with a strong running game. Baltimore accomplished only the first. Any time you hold an opponent to 20 points, you're giving yourself a chance to win. When you hold a great offense like Indianapolis' to 20 points and under 300 yards, that's borderline heroic.

The Colts' offense and Ravens' defense both played basically the way you'd expect. This game was decided by the exceptional play of the Indianapolis defense and the horrid efforts of the Baltimore offense. Joe Flacco made poor decisions, Raven receivers dropped 5 passes, the whole unit looked slow, and the play-calling was questionable. Twice as many passes as runs? I'm pretty sure that wasn't in the gameplan. The Colts led in time of possession by almost 8 minutes. To have a good chance to win the game, Baltimore probably needed an edge of at least 8 minutes in its own favor.

This game was actually closer than the score indicates, and the unsung hero is surely Pierre Garçon. Ed Reed's third-quarter interception return into Colts territory had the potential to turn the contest, and Garçon's forced fumble just took the air out of the Ravens.

Cowboys @ Vikings

The good was Minnesota's line play. The bad was the Dallas pass-blocking. But let's start with the ugly: Minnesota running up the score. I remember a time, not too long ago, when kids were encouraged to get involved in athletic competition partly so they would learn good sportsmanship. Uh, don't let those kids watch the Vikings. In Week 17, they went for it on 4th-and-goal, scoring a touchdown that increased their lead to 41-0. This weekend, late in the fourth quarter, with a 27-3 lead, they took shots into the end zone on 4th-and-7 and later on 4th-and-3.

Don't tell me you can't complain, that you need to stop it if you don't like it. There's a point at which you call off the dogs if you have a little bit of class, and the Vikings don't. This kind of thing is indefensible. It's bullying, and there's nothing "sporting" about it.

The game was a rout basically in every way, but nowhere was this more apparent than in the dominance of Minnesota's front four over the Dallas offensive line. Tony Romo was constantly under pressure, committing 3 turnovers and having I don't know how many passes knocked down at the line. Late in the game, he was trying too hard to make a big play. The Vikings boast a stout run defense, but the air attack was such a disaster that I don't understand why the Cowboys didn't shift more attention to the ground game. No one has ever accused them of being poor run-blockers.

Jets @ Chargers

The only competitive game of the weekend, this one was also unique in another respect. Very few games have an obvious goat, a single player who choked under pressure or cost his team the game. This one did: San Diego kicker Nate Kaeding. One of the best at his position in the NFL, Kaeding missed only 3 field goals all season. He missed 3 more on Sunday. One of those was understandable, a 57-yard prayer before halftime. The others were chip shots, 36 yards and 40, respectively. Kaeding hadn't missed from that distance in two years. You expect a pro to make those kicks, and if either one had gone in, San Diego probably would have made it to overtime.

Norv Turner is taking heat for calling an onside kick at the end of the game. I thought it was a good idea, it just didn't work out. That's what is known as a calculated risk. This game had an obvious goat, and it was the kicker, not the coach.

The Jets won this game the same way they always do: with top-notch defense and conservative offense. They didn't panic when they couldn't move the ball early, and eventually a few plays came their way. The offensive line did a great job of keeping pressure away from Mark Sanchez, and creating opportunities for Shonn Greene.

After three epic blowouts, it's hard to say that any one thing might have turned those games, but I think several of the losing coaches suffered from lack of aggression. Reggie Bush's punt return TD sealed Arizona's loss, and I don't think he ever should have gotten the opportunity. I know it was 4th-and-6 from the Arizona 38, but down 24 with only 22 minutes left, you've got to make something happen. If you go for it and fail, hey, you were gonna lose anyway. Make it, and things could turn around.

I understand why the Cardinals chose to punt, but the Cowboys' misplaced trust in Shaun Suisham is downright puzzling. Why would you let him try a 48-yard field goal on 4th-and-1? I'm sure Suisham is a nice guy, but he's one of the least reliable kickers in the NFL, and he doesn't have a big leg. There's no way his chances of hitting a long kick are better than the chances of making a yard. Later on, Suisham attempted a 49-yarder when a punt would have been more prudent. I don't blame the kicker, I blame the coach.

The Chargers let struggling kicker Nate Kaeding attempt a field goal on 4th-and-2. That's not crazy, but it's hard not to think that going for it would have maximized San Diego's chances of winning.

Championship Game Forecasts

Vikings @ Saints

The matchup to watch is Viking DE Jared Allen vs. Saints LT Jermon Bushrod. Allen feasts on weak tackles, and Bushrod got schooled in the Week 15 loss to Dallas. New Orleans is a much better pass-blocking team than the Cowboys, but if Minnesota gets the same kind of pressure it did last weekend, the Saints don't have a chance. It's unreasonable to expect that kind of repeat performance, but if the Vikings are going to win, they do need to get pressure with their front four. They also have to take care of the ball. Adrian Peterson is a fumbler, and Brett Favre is always a turnover risk in the playoffs.

The Saints need to rise to the occasion. They've played their three best games when the stakes were highest: against the Giants in Week 6, the Patriots in Week 12, and the Cardinals last weekend. Minnesota is no pushover, and if the Saints play the way they did in December, they'll lose. Protecting Brees is paramount. So is a fast start to keep the crowd active. Home field advantage was a factor for both teams last weekend, and the Superdome is quickly gaining a reputation as the loudest stadium in the NFL. The Vikings were 9-0 at home this year, but 4-4 on the road.

These were the two best teams in the NFC this season. They're both capable of outplaying good opponents. The Saints haven't given anyone reason to doubt them in big games, and the Vikings' road record doesn't inspire confidence in this kind of environment. New Orleans by a touchdown.

Jets @ Colts

A rematch of the Week 16 game in which the Colts pulled their starters. You can bet that if the Jets win, some commentators will crow about how the Colts regret not finishing the game and keeping New York out of the postseason. The thing is, that game was close, and there's no guarantee Indianapolis would have won with the first team in. The Jets match up well against Indy, and when they protect the ball, they can keep it close against anyone.

Peyton Manning has had some rocky games this year, and the Jets' defense can make anyone look bad. If the defense can do to Indianapolis what it did in San Diego, the Jets will have a real chance in this game. The offensive formula seems to be ball control with one or two big plays. Turnovers can absolutely doom this team, so Sanchez has to take care of the ball. I believe turnovers will be even more important than usual in this game. The Jets aren't good enough to overcome them, and the Colts can't afford to give New York a short field.

The Colts need a good day from their offense. If they turn the game into a track meet, the Jets won't be able to keep up. It's really important to capitalize on scoring opportunities. If you cross midfield against the Jet defense, you need to put points on the board. Then again, if the Colts' defense plays the way it did against Baltimore, this game will be a blowout.

The Jets are not to be underestimated, but I think the Colts have a little too much firepower. Indianapolis by 4.