It may be technically impossible on the West Coast, but a hurricane has somehow made landfall over Los Angeles. And through the eye of the storm, there can be seen a glance at the realities of college football.
Personally, as a USC graduate who spent four years in college during Pete Carroll's glory years, I have an obvious interest in the proceedings. I have certain feelings about issues and parties involved. But the events of this coaching merry-go-round don't merely involve USC, but reflect the broader football landscape and illustrate a few lessons any program/observer can take to heart.
1. If you think you have a Bobby Bowden or a Joe Paterno, think again.
I'm not saying that it can't happen in this day and age. But it's incredibly unlikely. I present a list of highly successful coaches that would truly shock me if they weren't coaching there in five years (obviously barring a sudden allergy to winning): Jim Tressel, Frank Beamer, Bob Stoops (maybe). That's it. (Mack Brown at Texas already has an heir apparent tabbed; this does not signal a long remaining tenure.)
There is too much money floating around in salaries these days for coaches to be loyal, and too much money in revenue floating around for administrations to be loyal. College football has officially attained swinger status thought to be exclusive to the NFL. Just ask Miami, Michigan, LSU, Auburn, Notre Dame, Nebraska West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Utah, Oregon State, and USC. Each of them had a coaching change within two years of a BCS appearance this decade, not even including firings for non-football reasons.
In Carroll's case, sanctions and hostilities with Mike Garrett may have played roles. (We'll get to those later.) But he never denied a return to the NFL was a possibility. Many coaches will flatly deny their interest in another job until the ink on their new contract is drying. Anyone who knows Carroll knows he is among the most competitive people alive ... and that he always squirmed at the mention of his mediocre NFL legacy.
And yes, every successful college coach turned NFL coach has registered somewhere between mediocre and disastrous. And yes, if anything, that probably makes the task more appealing to Carroll.
2. There is no good time for a coach to take a promotion ... as far as the program is concerned.
It is completely unrealistic to think coaches will never leave a job for a more appealing one. Considering the 365-day recruiting calendar, though, there is never a good time for a breakup.
Carroll was no different, and there was certainly disappointment. But there are varying levels of acrimony. USC fans, by and large, understood Carroll's omnipresent competitive itch, respected his considerable charity work in the community, and most importantly, recognized his remarkable resurrection of a lifeless powerhouse.
Let's just say this wasn't a Brian Kelly. Kelly was not the first to leave a team before a BCS bowl game. (It's now happened to two of the last three Big East winners.) Still, Cincinnati was also undefeated, enjoying by far the best season in program history, and with a win, could have at least argued a claim to a national title. So he bailed for the money and prestige of 6-6 Notre Dame.
Lane Kiffin coached a bowl, but he started a riot in Knoxville when he bailed after a single season. Never has a 7-6 coach received so much hatred directed at him for leaving. But again, he saw the USC job as more appealing, so off he went. (There were no reports of riots in Ruston when Derek Dooly was poached from Louisiana Tech by Tennessee in the classic domino effect.) So while Kelly's crime was premature timing, Kiffin was guilty of a one-night stand.
3. Recruiting violations never land on the right people's head ... but someone has to pay.
Let's say for the sake of argument that USC is going to get slammed by the NCAA next month and Carroll becomes football's [John] Calipari. Who is hurt by such sanctions? Current players who likely had nothing to do with the violations, the incoming coaching staff, and the school/fans. (Okay, so in Lane "Secondary Violation" Kiffin's case, maybe that's fair; but in general, it isn't.)
Notably absent: agents illegally paying players, head coaches with most direct oversight who freely bail on the crippled program. Thank you, NCAA, for your complete lack of teeth in attacking a problem at the source.
And yet, should USC be blasted, there is a clear and punishable villain, and the fan base rightfully has torches and pitchforks at the ready. Athletic director Mike Garrett has been around since 1993. Hiring Pete Carroll and presiding over the rise of the football program has been his most recognizable "success." Of course, Carroll was his fourth choice and assistant AD Darryl Gross reportedly had pushed even harder for the hire. Oh, and Garrett allegedly helped run Carroll off.
On top of that, a proud baseball program languishes without a playoff birth since 2005 and just the one since 2002. (That's a 64-team tournament.) The basketball program just slapped itself with major sanctions, with Garrett announcing it via pre-recorded Internet message so as not to face the tough questions of reporters (like whether this was to take pressure off the football program under investigation). The alumni base has no confidence in him or respect for him at this point; there really are few Garrett-defenders to be found.
And with various e-rumors on all fronts, it's hard to say whether the hiring of Kiffin almost immediately indicated Garrett's and Kiffin's confidence that the sanctions will be manageable or even negligible (if Garrett even had a say in the hire, another point of debate), or whether Garrett is putting the last nail in his own coffin by hiring an NCAA lightning rod in advance of a hearing on potential violations.
For now, while still seeking Garrett's head on a plate, the fan base is generally optimistic, perhaps more so over Kiffin's imports. Assistant Ed Orgeron returns (master recruiter/former USC defensive line coach), and Monte Kiffin stays with his son (one of the best defensive minds of a generation). Fans are divided on Kiffin (sold on recruiting, i.e. able to avoid recruiting fallout of Carroll's loss, not so much on X's and O's, scared of his penchant for attracting the wrong kind of attention). Then again, they weren't exactly sold on Carroll, so who knows.
In short, USC ends up dealing with some problems that are pretty standard in college football ... just not necessarily all at once.
At least former Trojan Mark McGwire had the decency to bump the Carroll defection from the front page. Too bad I'm also a Cardinals fan. Ugh.
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