It's never too early to look for Cinderella.
As college basketball moves into the conference slate, it's definitely time to start penciling down those hidden teams — the ones that created chaos by hanging tough with the big boys, the ones that you have when March Madness rolls around. The ones pegged fairly low in March, but end up in the Sweet 16 a week later (or in Davidson's case, the Elite Eight). The teams that cause celebration in some brackets and sheer agony in others.
The teams I generally like have a few things in common. They usually have good balanced scorers, a dependable point guard (most likely a senior), and usually have either recent tournament experience or have hung tough or beaten some bigger names. They also won't get massive media attention, meaning you won't find a Butler or Gonzaga on this list.
So here's four teams to keep a look out for glass slippers.
Northern Iowa — I love Missouri Valley teams, and right now, UNI is at the top of the conference and on the list. The Panthers are 13-1, with wins over in-state foes Iowa State and Iowa, as well as Boston College. They've got four players who average in double figures, solid shooting from three-point range, and a team loaded with veteran leadership. This team doesn't turn the ball over much, so UNI won't beat themselves. Teams like the Panthers are nightmares for up-tempo teams that are turnover-prone, and half-court teams thanks to their shooting. Keep an eye on Ali Farokhmanesh, UNI's sharp-shooting guard. He might be a name to remember come mid-March.
Rhode Island — The Rams (11-1) are fresh off a win over Oklahoma State and are riding a very high wave into conference play. You have to love a team with a veteran leader at guard, and Keith Cothran is the key to the Rhode Island machine. The Rams have great shooters, including three in Cothran, F Delory James, and G Akeem Richmond, and play a deep rotation that makes them tough to wear down. The Rams have an assist-turnover ratio above one, and not one player on the team averages more than three fouls a game, impressive for a fast-pace squad. The smallest state could provide the biggest March surprise.
South Alabama — Knock off two SEC teams (even if Arkansas isn't that good this year), and you can garner some attention. South Alabama plays a deep bench; nine players play over 12 minutes a game, and while they lack size, they can really fly up and down the court. The biggest concern for the Jaguars is when you go to the assist-turnover ratio (a nice component when checking tournament teams out), the ratio is under one, meaning a ball control team could give the Jags trouble. However, if USA can up their tempo and control the ball just slightly better, they could be very, very tough this March.
Tulsa — Didn't think I'd forget the Golden Hurricane, did you? Tulsa could be the team everyone ends up talking about. TU has two blowout wins over Big 12 teams, thrashing Oklahoma State and Colorado, and except for a massive egg laying against Nevada, has played quite well this season. The Hurricane play a deep rotation, have solid leadership from their guards and normally are solid shooters. The one thing you have to watch from Tulsa is their ability to shoot from behind the arc. When Tulsa is ice cold and they have to rely on Jerome Jordan too much, they can be vulnerable. However, when Tulsa's guards are lighting it up, like they were against Oklahoma State and Colorado, they are near impossible to beat.
Will these teams hold true to what they've done so far? Conference play will definitely unravel more of the story as we continue to progress towards March!
January 5, 2010
Bre:
I really don’t think you can consider UNI a mid-major, or the Valley as a conference a mid-major either.
The Panthers truly should be in the Top 25. Keep in mind that loss to DePaul (which they shouldn’t have lost) was before DePaul lost their top guy. Good call on Farokhmanesh..the kid is money.
Either way I can see Northern Iowa making a DEEP run.
January 6, 2010
Jim:
Bre, you have to be kidding. The MVC not a mid-major? Then what are they…a low major? They certainly are not a high-major conference…not even close.
January 6, 2010
Bre:
They are ranked as a top 8 conference nationally, have some of the top attendence, etc. You obvisouly don’t watch basketball.
I’d take the MVC over the Big 10 any day.