The end of December typically marks a turning point between the haves and have-nots in the NHL. It's not an official marker by any stretch, but it's been a reliable rough point-of-no-return for teams that can remain in playoff contention and for those that can start looking at the draft lottery. For fans of the Los Angeles Kings and the Phoenix Coyotes, it's also a time to breath a sigh of relief: your teams are for real.
It's always possible to undergo an epic fall — such as what the Coyotes did last season when they slipped from fifth at the All-Star Break to all the way out of the playoffs. However, that calls for an extraordinary implosion, one that typically doesn't happen.
So assuming it's safe to say that the Coyotes and Kings will be involved in the Western Conference playoff race — and perhaps the hunt for the Pacific Division crown — let's take a look at how they got here.
In the entire Western Conference, the team with the best goals-against average is Phoenix. The only team that can match it in the entire NHL is Buffalo. It's no surprise, then, that Buffalo's Ryan Miller — the leading Vezina candidate at the end of 2009 — has very similar statistics to Phoenix's Ilya Bryzgalov. The difference is that Miller's team faces on average about 30 shots-against a game. The Coyotes? Under Dave Tippett's defensive system, Phoenix deals with about 27 shots-against per game.
This is significant because the Coyotes have no forward that even comes close to a point-per-game. Instead, the team's top-five scorers (Shane Doan, Matthew Lombardi, Radim Vrbata, Scottie Upshall, and Robert Lang) are all within five points of each other at the 0.5 to 0.6 points-per-game range. Usually, you'd expect teams with a dynamite goalie and a weak offense to be struggling around .500 for most of the season, but the Coyotes are well over .500, even if you factor in overtime/shootout losses into their record.
In short, while Ilya Bryzgalov has been stellar, the Coyotes are winning because of an absolute commitment to their system. Their true star is their coach and his ability to get a complete buy-in from his players.
In the same division, the Los Angeles Kings boast a similar record to the Coyotes, and even overtook division powerhouse San Jose for a few days. However, the L.A.'s overall goal differential is just barely positive, and their goals-against is very middle-of-the-road compared to the league. How are the Kings winning?
During the first two months of the season, L.A. was powered by a dynamic first line featuring Anze Kopitar and Ryan Smyth. When Smyth went down with an injury in mid-November, Kopitar's production significantly dropped. With Smyth back in the lineup, the Kings have to face another significant forward injury as Justin Williams suffered a broken leg on the night of Smyth's return.
Unlike the Coyotes, the Kings have a significant amount of scoring depth spread out, including point-per-game players (Kopitar, Smyth), effective second liners (Dustin Brown, Alex Frolov), and offensive-threat defensemen (Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson). Their true weakness, then, looks to be goaltending. While the Kings tend to give up slightly more shots-against per game than the Coyotes, the difference is really negligible. However, starter Jonathan Quick has far worse stats than Ilya Bryzgalov; in fact, Quick has no shutouts in 30+ starts while Bryzgalov has already notched five.
Which of these Pacific Division surprises will hold through come playoff time? Each has a critical enough weakness (Phoenix's scoring, L.A.'s goaltending) that it could hamper them come the stretch run. Of course, they've withstood the first test by overcoming first-month flash-in-the-pan status; the trick is then for coaches Dave Tippett and Terry Murray to recognize these shortcomings and build towards something so that they're still playing in April.
Leave a Comment