Wildest NFL Wild Card Ever?

Having 14 regular season games in the books should be plenty in terms of determining NFL playoff seeding, or at least in creating a relatively stable picture of how the season's last two weeks will set up relative to postseason considerations. To wit, this season's NFC playoff picture is very much solidified with only a single team currently on the outside looking in — the New York Giants — still mathematically alive. But the AFC, now this is a very different story, indeed.

We could guess, hypothesize, or postulate on who we believe will represent the AFC on the wild card weekend. We could take a cursory look at the schedule and see a couple of wins for a team here or a couple of wins for a team there and make our assumptions from that level of research. Heck, we may even get the teams right following that highly unscientific methodology! But this is a sports site and frankly, where is the "sport" in that?

Rather than throwing darts, I submit to you the results for the final two weeks of the season on a proverbial silver platter. Based on this careful assessment of the likely outcome for the 32 remaining games, the playoff picture will take care of itself. As an added holiday bonus and in the spirit of giving, I've also taken the liberty of projecting the entirety of the playoffs, eliminating the need to watch another minute of football this season. Without further ado, let's take a look into the crystal ball:

NFC

I'll keep this short and sweet. Dallas will win at Washington and lose at home to Philly. Philly wins out. The Giants beat the 'Skins on Monday in Week 15 (the only remaining unplayed game at the time of writing), destroy Carolina in the Meadowlands in Week 16, but will lose to a Minnesota team that suddenly will find itself competing for home-field advantage thanks to the embarrassing loss to the Panthers they just endured. The net result of all this activity is Philadelphia takes the division title and Dallas squeaks into the postseason, leaving Eli's Giants on the outside looking in.

Meanwhile, Green Bay will split their games — beating an awful Seattle team at Lambeau and losing to Arizona in Week 17, but their win over Seattle will lock up a playoff berth for the Pack. The Vikings will have beaten the Giants in Week 17, but will have lost to the Bears in Week 16 (gambling mantra No. 122: Beware the highly underachieving home dog on Monday night games at or near the end of a season if that game is between hated division rivals), so the Eagles will earn the first-round bye by way of their one win better division record. The Saints and Cardinals round out the playoff combatants.

AFC

Fair warning: this will not be short and sweet. With better than 50 permutations of potential playoff scenarios to chose from, the final two weeks of the season in the AFC are sure to be "must-see TV." Week 15 featured some of the most unimaginably improbable outcomes and a bevy of hotly-contested games that have resulted in as murky a wild card picture as I can remember ever seeing.

Denver played back to the field by blowing an absolutely un-losable game at home to the woe-begotten Oakland Raiders. The defending champion Steelers remained firmly in play by completing a miraculous last second, toe-tapping touchdown catch from Mike Wallace, of all people, that ultimately won a game against the Packers that they had no business winning. Tennessee's overtime win at home against a spunky Miami team and Houston's "you better win this f%&@ing game, Gary Kubiak" nail-biter in St. Louis keep both of those teams' unlikely playoff aspirations alive. And the Jets coughed up a home game to Atlanta thanks to their rookie QB making too many rookie QB mistakes in a game they really needed to win to realistically have a shot at the postseason, putting the seven-win team count to six with the current two clubhouse leaders for the wild card at 8 wins.

What do the next two weeks have in store? It will all start Christmas night in Tennessee as the Titans temporarily end Phillip Rivers' mastery of December (17-0) in beating the Chargers. This comes ahead of a Week 17 "gimme" at Seattle for Vince Young and Co., giving the Titans 9 wins on the season after starting 0-6. Those pesky Miami Dolphins — who have remained in play even with an injured reserve that includes their opening day starting QB (Chad Pennington), their best player in starting running back (Ronnie Brown), their top kick returner and most versatile offensive player (RB Patrick Cobbs), and two of their most consistent veteran defenders (DT Jason Ferguson and CB Will Allen) — will eliminate the underachieving Houston Texans with a home win in Week 16 (at the same time bringing a close to the Gary Kubiak era of Texan football). Pittsburgh will handle Baltimore at home, setting up a critical Week 17 matchup between the Steelers and the Dolphins in Miami, which I'll get to in a bit.

New England will split their last two games, winning one at home against Jacksonville and taking a loss in Houston with their "B Team" taking most of the reps. The former of these two contests will clinch the AFC East for the Pats, while eliminating the Jaguars' fading playoff hopes. The Jets are fodder for the Indianapolis Colts and their run at an undefeated season in Week 16, ending their slim chances at playing well into January and rendering their Week 17 home win against a Cincy team with nothing to play for a moot point. If you were paying attention earlier on in this article, you will have noticed that I have Philly winning out, which gives the Broncos seven losses, but rest-assured, Denver fans, your team will not cough up another game at home to an overmatched division rival as they should have no problems handling a Kansas City team in the season's final week.

This leaves a single game of import remaining, the aforementioned Pittsburgh at Miami contest. Without delving further into the details, suffice to say that Pittsburgh will be playing this game believing they have a shot at a wild card with a win as both Baltimore and Denver won't play until the later time slot. Miami will have equal visions of grandeur as a win will likely punch their playoff ticket for the second straight season. Pittsburgh has the edge on paper, but Miami has shown that they are as rugged a challenge as there is regardless of paper matchups. I'm going with the 'Fins in this Week 17 battle, but not by much, leaving the Steelers wondering what might have been had they not lost to bottom-feeders Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland earlier in the season.

If you happen to be keeping track at home as you read this, stop now because I'm about to summarize the whole shebang for you. Of the six 7-win teams leading into Weeks 16 and 17, my calculations have two, Tennessee and Miami, winning out and getting to nine wins. My projections also have the two 8-win teams in the AFC, Baltimore and Denver, also reaching the 9-win plateau, creating a four-way tie with two of those four destined for the postseason.

Here, believe it or not, is where it gets complicated. The first tiebreaker for wild card teams is to run the divisional tie-breaking procedures to leave only a single team from each division. Since each of our four potentials are from different conferences, this step is skipped. Step two is to check head-to-head scenarios. For multi-team assessment, a team will have had to either win or lose against each of the others in the grouping. Again, since no team played each of the other three, this step is skipped. Tiebreaker No. 3 is division record. The Titans will find themselves at 5-7, Miami, Denver, and Baltimore will each be 7-5; Tennessee is eliminated.

Wild card tie-breaking rules dictate that you are to revert to step one once a team is eliminated, so we'll do just that, and once again steps one and two do not pertain to these teams, so they are skipped. As I've already mentioned, each has 7 division wins, so we can proceed to tie-breaking step No. 4, which is record versus common opponents (minimum of four). In an exceptional oddity, each of the three remaining wild card potentials have played New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. In an even more odd coincidence, each has sported a 2-3 record against those four opponents. Yet another tie, which means on to step five: strength of victory.

Now, strength of victory is where things get a little sketchy, because much has to do with how the teams that each of the wild card hopefuls do in the final two weeks of the season. Rather than actually count up all the projected wins for those teams (which, sadly enough, I did), a more generic review of the facts should tell the story. Denver has wins against Cincy, Dallas, New England, and the Patriots — all 10 or more win teams — as well as a win against a projected nine-win New York team. Baltimore, conversely, has only one win against a 10-plus win team (San Diego). In fact, Baltimore will have won only three games against teams with 6 or more wins all season long, putting them at a decided disadvantage. Miami has a pile of wins against likely eight-win teams with a victory against 10-win New England to boot. All indications have Baltimore trailing both Miami and Denver in the strength of victory category by a good amount.

Lots can happen to change this, but it is quite safe to say that Baltimore will be the odd-man out with Denver likely earning the top wild card seed. As the process will start over for the final wild card spot once Denver is removed, Miami will ultimately wind up as the other wild card participant.

There is one caveat that has to be noted, however. If Miami earns the top wild card slot, which though unlikely is totally plausible, than Baltimore will get the other wild card slot, as they did beat Denver head-to-head, leaving the Broncos without plans for January. If these last two weeks play out as I've indicated above, there is a strong likelihood that playoff seeding in the AFC will depend heavily on how also-rans like Tampa Bay, Carolina, Oakland, Buffalo, and Cleveland finish their seasons. Told you it was confusing.

Now that the wild card mess is straightened out (well, sort of), a quick look at the rest of the AFC playoff seeding has Indy with home-field advantage throughout (and no, I do not believe they will go undefeated as I see a Buffalo winter playing a role in strategy as the Bills upend a cautious Colts team in Week 17), the Chargers with 12 wins earning a first round bye and New England and Cincinnati sitting in the No. 3 and No. 4 slots, respectively.

As promised, below are my projected playoff results:

Wild Card Weekend

NFC Game 1: #6 Dallas Cowboys at #3 Minnesota Vikings; Cowboys win, 20-13

NFC Game 2: #5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Arizona Cardinals; Cardinals win, 31-30

AFC Game 1: #6 Miami Dolphins at #3 New England Patriots; Dolphins win, 28-20

AFC Game 2: #5 Denver Broncos at #4 Cincinnati Bengals; Broncos win, 17-7

Divisional Playoffs

NFC Game 3: #4 Arizona Cardinals at #2 Philadelphia Eagles; Eagles win, 34-20

NFC Game 4: #6 Dallas Cowboys at #1 New Orleans Saints; Cowboys win, 21-19

AFC Game 3: #5 Denver Broncos at #2 San Diego Chargers; Chargers win, 38-10

AFC Game 4: #6 Miami Dolphins at #1 Indianapolis Colts; Colts win, 23-17

Conference Championship

NFC Game 5: #6 Dallas Cowboys at #2 Philadelphia Eagles; Eagles win, 24-17

AFC Game 5: #2 San Diego Chargers at #1 Indianapolis Colts; Chargers win, 27-24

Super Bowl XLIV

San Diego Chargers vs. Philadelphia Eagles; Chargers win, 24-20

Happy holidays to you all and have a safe, happy, and blessed New Year!