Deck the Halls (and the BCS): Bowl Predictions

Bowl season has already started. So I'm a little late with a rundown, but hey, today was my appointed date to post, so deal with it. And let's face it: there haven't been any bowls you deeply cared about yet. (Though if you can enjoy a dramatic finish between teams you don't care at all about, the two-OT New Mexico Bowl would have been a good catch. Meanwhile, last night you might have been let down by a blowout of a Vegas Bowl by BYU. I don't know if giving college kids a trip to Vegas could be any more wasted.)

So here's a quick rundown of the bowls that matter to me. I'm not doing all 30 because trying to do that would make me want to stab a kitten, and besides, you wouldn't read most of it anyway. And as I've done in the past, I will rename them for accuracy to spite their corporate sponsors.

So here we go, the 11 most interesting bowl games of the season, because 11 is a nice even number.

The We-Cumulatively-Came-a-LONG-Way-to-Meet-in-the-Middle Bowl

Boston College was picked by some to go 0-8 in ACC play. USC was picked by some to contend for a national title. So the paths to their Emerald Bowl collision come from directly opposite directions. (Disclosure, I'm a USC grad. Writing this doesn't thrill me.)

Boston College had its coach being fired for interviewing with the Jets, and the reigning defensive player of the year sidelined with cancer. Yet the 8-4 Eagles took care of business and showed it's a program you have to account for in the ACC year in, year out.

USC, meanwhile, proved that flushing your entire defense into the NFL draft and starting a freshman QB are not the makings of a title contender. Four ineligible players will not help, either. Still, BC beat zero teams that finished above .500 and lost to Notre Dame, so USC 17, BC 16 in an ugly game.

Virgin Airlines Bowl

Not much scoring will be done here. Everyone is pretty high on Nebraska after an incredible defensive effort against Texas, headlined by human freak show, Ndamukong Suh. Meanwhile, Arizona has a pretty decent defense too, at least when playing any offense even close to as inept as Nebraska's. Nebraska 13, Arizona 10.

The Gerhart-vs.-Nine-Man-Box Bowl

Toby Gerhart should have won the Heisman, with 11 more touchdowns and nearly 200 more yards in one fewer game than the winner, all while getting less help from his team. (He even had a slight edge in average ranking of rush defenses he faced.) Of course, with quarterback Andrew Luck out, this matchup might not be ideal; I wonder what Oklahoma will prepare for. Not that this will be new for Gerhart, but the Sooners' defense has not been a part of their disappointment and is stout. Oklahoma, whether surly from a disappointing season or flat in a bowl they didn't want, also features serious speed problems for Stanford's lackluster pass defense. Gerhart runs a few Sooners over, but Oklahoma is too talented for this bowl when the other team is out a starting quarterback. Oklahoma 38, Stanford 24.

The It's-Time-Bobby Bowl

The reason 6-6 Florida State is in the Gator Bowl on New Years Day is obviously a lifetime achievement award after nearly three and a half decades of Bobby Bowden at the helm.

And as over-matched as they should reasonably should be in this final game, West Virginia doesn't have a lot of truly inspiring results. It beat Pitt, but Pitt made its bones on the almost entirely on the same questionable Big East schedule the Mountaineers did. So Florida State pulls an upset in a game it cares about more deeply than its opponent does. Florida State 34, West Virginia 31.

The I-Outlasted-Bowden Bowl

Meanwhile, JoPa keeps trudging along. Just don't expect a Penn State team that played a cream-puff non-conference schedule, (Temple and Syracuse were the hard part for the Nittany Lions) and didn't beat a ranked team all year, to hang with battle-tested Tigers of LSU. Being ranked higher doesn't put points on the scoreboard in this cat fight. LSU 38, Penn State 10.

The Goofy Colors Bowl

Nothing says football like Creamsicle Orange and whatever Virginia Tech calls that purpley-maroon color, all in what was once known as the Peach Bowl. Okay, reaching for a storyline there, but surely Lane Kiffin will throw some fuel on the fire later.

Both teams do come in playing good football. Tennessee has won four of five; the Hokies have won five straight. But in this ACC/SEC Chick-Fil-a Bowl, the SEC has won four straight, so I'll play it safe. Tennessee 23, Virginia Tech 21.

The New-Faces-Same-Result Bowl

Ohio State hasn't been in Pasadena since 1997. Oregon hasn't smelled roses since 1995. USC is not in the Rose Bowl this year for just the second time in seven years. (Shudders.) Another big gap: a Big Ten School hasn't won a Rose Bowl since Ron Dayne ran over a Stanford a decade ago.

Jeremiah Masoli quarterbacks an explosive spread, triple-option offense that can run or pass with lethal efficiency. LaMichael James set the Pac-10 freshman rushing record and LeGarrette Blount is back. Ohio struggled with Navy's option attack. This is far scarier. The Buckeye offense never really got on track with Terrelle Pryor, and has to deal with the traditional Big Ten layoff. The drought continues for the Midwest. Oregon 44, Ohio State 27.

The Up-Yours-Coach Bowl

After the greatest season in Cincinnati history, the program has more money, interest, and attention than ever heading into the Sugar Bowl against Florida. So, naturally, the coach jumped ship pre-bowl for a team that finished 6-6 and lost to both Big East teams it faced.

That's life when you are Cincinnati and Notre Dame is Notre Dame. Still, it will be interesting to see if Tony Pike's aerial assault can be as productive against a top defense like Florida; the best it's seen is Oregon State (scored 28 points in that win). Tim Tebow will provide his share of the storyline in his final college game. It wouldn't surprise me if Cincy fired out of the gates to prove they went undefeated, not Brian Kelly. And remember, a convincing win over the SEC runners-up (a la Utah last year) would give them at least a somewhat legitimate psychological claim on a mythical share of a national title. Or something like that.

Try as I might, I just don't see it. Florida 35, Cincinnati 27.

The Not-BCS/Second Amendment Bowl

Well, the Cotton Bowl lost prestige when the four BCS Bowls were designated, and it is a fitting host to two armed teams that had designs on BCS Bowls heading into the year. The Rebels of Ole Miss ran out of ammo early, while Oklahoma State had a chance as late as their final game, until the Cowboys fired blanks at Oklahoma. They do get quarterback Zach Robinson back, and undoubtedly he'll be healthier than he was in that bitter 27-0 loss. They also comfortably beat Georgia in its lone SEC matchup this season. Minor upset: Oklahoma State 37, Mississippi 28.

The BCS Bust Bowl (AKA Last year's Poinsettia Bowl)

Ah, the BCS continues to find new ways to piss off every college football fan on earth. A typically entertaining Boise State, undefeated and standing with the scalp of the Pac-10 champ (and admittedly little else), meets up with undefeated TCU, with an ACC divisional champ (at Clemson) and quality MWC programs Utah and BYU on their victim list.

Naturally, everyone wants to see if the BCS Busters can compete. Instead we siphon them of to Glendale to prove nothing in the Fiesta Bowl. (At least it pays better than the Poinsettia!)

Sure, the selection process might have handcuffed the Fiesta. But BCS rules allow a mutually agreed switch even after the fact to prevent rematches from the previous year. The bowl heads elected not to. Thanks.

Oh, the football. Boise State is as creative and entertaining as any team, and has a great quarterback in Kellen Moore. But while effective, it wasn't nearly as explosive in its one game against a BCS conference team (although it was the first game). TCU, meanwhile, has a terror of a defense (ask Boise State's 16 points last year) to go with a 40-plus points-per-game offense. TCU 30, Boise State 24.

The We-Settled Bowl

Seeing Iowa and Georgia Tech play Boise State or TCU would have been intriguing. Instead, the Orange Bowl played it safe with two good-not-great BCS schools. With already relatively small school Georgia Tech automatically selected, the Orange Bowl predictably grabbed a Big Ten school that will travel well in Iowa.

There are two good things about this game. No. 1, Iowa was rightly invited over more TV-friendly and populous Penn State. Same records, but Iowa beat Penn State and had a superior resume. The second good thing is Georgia Tech's triple option. Josh Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer run coach Paul Johnson's old-school approach, and as you can tell from my thoughts on Oregon and Boise State, I'm a sucker for unique, deceptive offenses. Georgia Tech 34, Iowa 17.

The Rooting-For-a-Meteor Bowl

Okay, so wishing for a catastrophic event in a stadium full of 90,000 people sounds kind of harsh and petty. And yes, I am unfairly biased. My impression of Mack Brown is that he's a slimy politician-like creature, and he is the head of an unbearable program with an arrogant, entitled fan base. (Yes, I thought this before they beat USC in 2006, and yes, I also hold that against him.) My impression of Nick Saban is that I'd rather hang out with Mack Brown. And he's the head of an unbearable program with an arrogant, entitled fan base. That they play at my rival's stadium means even the collateral damage is intriguing to me.

(Yes, I am aware of the irony of me hating arrogant, entitled fan bases as a USC fan.)

My problem with this matchup does actually stem beyond my biases, though. This game is the representation of what's wrong with college football. I get that some teams have more tradition and resources than others, and that this will influence success; basketball has that, too. And these two programs are likely the best two teams in the country; I won't say someone else deserves to be there. But there are three other undefeated teams, and three teams in all could finish that way.

I don't care if we all "know" Texabama would crush the others; it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. This is sport, not a beauty pageant. Wins and losses are what matter, not opinion. What we think we "know" shouldn't matter.

So enjoy the title game, another representation of college football elitism. Oh, by the way, Texas gets crushed; Colt McCoy struggles with another good defense, and no way Greg McElroy and Mark Ingram lay the egg that Nebraska did on offense. 'Bama 31, Texas 16.