NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Cris Collinsworth continues to have a very casual relationship with reality. "That was at least five seconds." NBC's timer counts 4.2. Dude, all you have to do is say "about" instead of "at least!" Or four instead of five! Do you know what "at least" means?

* Progress from Jon Gruden, though. "Arguably" and "one of the best" rather than simply "the best" is a welcome improvement. Thanks, Jon.

* The NFL's ongoing work on concussions is too little, too late — but it's also better late than never. It still feels more like a PR move than a genuine interest in player safety, though.

* Ron Winter looked so cold on Thursday night, I wasn't sure he would make it through the game. He looked like at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark, when everyone's faces are melting.

* Sign of the Apocalypse: the Pittsburgh Steelers in shotgun on 3rd-and-short. In 40 mph winds. That's awesome coaching.

***

Let's be honest: the defending champions are done. There is no remotely realistic scenario in which the Steelers make the playoffs at this point. There are problems on offense. The team allowed 8 sacks on Thursday night. Some of those were Big Ben's fault — even after all his injuries, he still won't throw the ball away. Ben is both adamant and defensive about this point. I still remember the snide post-game interview he did last season after breaking a tackle and scrambling around before throwing a game-winning touchdown: "I guess I just hold the ball too long." Yeah, Ben, you do. Sometimes he makes great plays like that, but more often, it ends up like we saw against Cleveland. That needlessly costs the team yards, and it puts the quarterback at risk of injury because he's getting hit so often. This isn't all Roethlisberger, though. Pittsburgh's offensive line did not show up this week. In particular, center Justin Hartwig and right tackle Willie Colon did not have good games.

Beyond the players, though, I think there's a problem in the philosophy here. You've heard from a number of pundits that the Steelers have gotten away from their traditional identity as a tough, grind-it-out, running-and-defense group. Roethlisberger passed for more than twice as many yards this week (201) as Brady Quinn (90), with a much higher passer rating (75.1-48.1). That doesn't take the sacks into account, but clearly, Big Ben had the more productive night. And yet, Pittsburgh's offense was totally ineffective and the Browns won. The NFL is more about passing than ever before, but you still have to run to be successful, and the Steelers never committed to the run. It was a diversion rather than a real part of the gameplan. That is not a recipe for success, especially in unfavorable weather.

There are also problems on defense. Not as many, nor as obvious: the Steelers still rank among the top 10 in both yards and points allowed. The biggest issue is that they're not forcing turnovers. Pittsburgh is actually -5 this season in turnovers, and only the Browns have fewer interceptions. Troy Polamalu has missed 3/4 of the season, and he still leads the team in picks.

Finally, there are problems on special teams. They're last in the league in kickoff touchbacks and have allowed 4 KR TDs. Josh Cribbs' 55-yard punt return to the Steeler 8-yard line was probably the definitive play of the game. Cribbs was also the only offensive player to make much of a splash in this defense-dominated game.

People talk about a jinx for Super Bowl losers, but it's hit the winners almost as hard. In the seven years since the league expanded to 32 teams, the Super Bowl winner has made the next season's playoffs only four times, the loser only once. That's a combined 5/14, less than average. There are several reasons for this trend, including coincidence and bad luck. But the main one is injuries. If you play in the Super Bowl, the season doesn't end until February, more than a month after most teams are done. That's an extra month of practices, a month of recuperation time lost and surgeries delayed, and an extra 3-4 games in which to get hurt. Pittsburgh's struggles this year are obviously about more than missing Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith, but those are big losses to overcome.

This is why most football fans oppose an 18-game schedule: it would lead to more injuries and shorten the careers of our favorite players. For now, the Week 14 rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. New Orleans Saints [2] — Remember the 2007 Patriots? Of course you do, that was only two years ago. They destroyed everyone at the beginning of the season, and probably played the best half-season in NFL history, opening 8-0 and outscoring their opponents 331-127. They faded down the stretch, eking out a 16-0 regular season but winning half of their last eight games by four points or less. This year's Saints came out on fire, won all of their first six games by double-digits, outscored adversaries 238-127. Since then, five of their seven victories have been by 10 points or less. In the last month, they've beaten 1-12 St. Louis, 4-9 Washington, and 6-7 Atlanta by a combined 11 points. They're 21st in yards allowed and 18th in points allowed. They're slowing down; this is not the same team we saw in the first six weeks.

2. Indianapolis Colts [1] — Won their 22nd straight regular-season game, an all-time record. I worry about Peyton Manning, who has thrown multiple interceptions in four of the last five games. His INT/gm rate has almost tripled in the last month. On Sunday, Manning got off to an awesome start (13-of-19, 144 yards, 3 TD) before losing his accuracy, tossing a season-high 3 picks, and finishing with a line only a fantasy football owner could love: 20-42, 220 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT. I still think the Colts are better than the Saints, but they're ranked second because I also think they're going to start resting starters next week, a month before their first playoff game. If Peyton only plays for a quarter against Jacksonville, I'm going to rank them in the 20s next week. Seriously. If they're not trying to win, that's an accurate assessment of their power.

3. San Diego Chargers [3] — Probably should be ranked first. I don't think anyone has played better in the last month. The Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a win next week, and can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Denver loss. That would also lock up a first-round bye. San Diego got a quietly strong performance from its ailing defense this week. I seldom predict individual games, because I am terrible at it, but I believe the Chargers will beat Cincinnati by double-digits in Week 15.

4. Green Bay Packers [5] — Can clinch the playoffs with a win and a Giants loss. Green Bay leads the NFL in turnover differential and ranks among the top 10 in yards, points, yards allowed, and points allowed. The defense continues to develop. Charles Woodson deservingly gets the most attention, but safety Nick Collins makes an awful lot of plays. The Packers have won five games in a row.

5. Tennessee Titans [6] — Don't have a realistic path to the playoffs, which I'm sure is a relief to other AFC teams. In order to qualify, Tennessee would need to win all of its remaining contests, and the Jaguars, Jets, and Ravens would all have to lose at least two of their remaining three games. Kerry Collins played well this week in relief of the injured Vince Young, who is questionable for next week. Second-year RB Chris Johnson is having a historic season. Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk never had a season this good.

6. Arizona Cardinals [4] — Pretty obvious letdown after their huge win over Minnesota in Week 13. During the MNF broadcast, Ron Jaworski said of Kurt Warner's Hall of Fame chances, "I don't know who those doubters are, but they oughtta get a clue." Here's my argument against Warner: he's only had three seasons as a full-time starter: 1999, 2001, and 2008. Look it up, this is only his fourth season with at least 12 starts. Some of that is injury, but Warner was benched in 2003, 2004, and 2006. He has great efficiency statistics, but he's played with Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin. All those guys were great without Warner, and there's no question they make him look better. Does this mean Warner shouldn't get HOF consideration? Of course not. But he shouldn't be an automatic choice, either. I would say that Warner is the fifth- or sixth-best QB of this generation, behind Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, and old man river in Minnesota. Sixth-best? That's very borderline HOF territory.

7. Minnesota Vikings [7] — Clinched a playoff spot. The Cardinals were a bad matchup for Minnesota, and the Bengals were a great one. The Vikings aren't as bad as they looked against Arizona, or as good as they looked against Cincinnati. Their quarterback has got to hold the record for most illegal passes from beyond the line or scrimmage. He does that like once a season.

8. Philadelphia Eagles [9] — Both defenses looked awful, not even professional. Al Michaels described it well: "This is like a street game." Broken coverage, atrocious tackling, lack of focus ... ugly stuff. Nine Eagles were involved in a fumble on Sunday night, either by fumbling, causing one, or recovering one. CB Sheldon Brown scored a touchdown for the second consecutive game. I'd like to see him finally make the Pro Bowl this year. Philadelphia has won four in a row.

9. Denver Broncos [10] — In the first 12 games, Brandon Marshall caught 66 passes for 808 yards. In the 13th game, 21 passes for 200 yards. He now has two of the three highest single-game reception totals in NFL history. I see Denver and Cincinnati as basically the same team, except that Denver is healthier and less reliant on its running game. Maybe I'm overreacting to one bad performance from the Bengals, but they looked lost when their ground game got shut down. The Broncos don't have a great offense, but they can lean on their defense and move the ball by running or passing.

10. Baltimore Ravens [11] — Brutally stomped Detroit to get some momentum for a postseason run. The Ravens have three very winnable games left and are as good a bet as anyone to earn the final wild card in the AFC. Next week will mark the first time all season that Baltimore plays back-to-back games against teams with losing records.

11. Dallas Cowboys [12] — As everyone knows, the NFL is totally different in December. The rules change, teams reshuffle their rosters, and good players become dogs. Did the Cowboys lose this week because it's December, or because they were playing the hottest team in the league? I'm tired of this ridiculous news angle. The Cowboys actually played pretty well, they just ran into a better team. It happens, even in autumn sometimes. DeMarcus Ware is doubtful for next week, but he's been released from the hospital and is at no risk of paralysis.

12. Miami Dolphins [14] — Ricky Williams, who had only one fumble all season, dropped the ball three times against Jacksonville. This was a big win for the Dolphins, keeping them in playoff contention and giving them a tiebreaker over the Jaguars. The remaining schedule is not easy, but every game is winnable. This week's contest in Tennessee is probably the toughest, and I don't think Miami can afford a loss.

13. New England Patriots [13] — I expected a colossal beatdown: a classic, unsportsmanlike Belichick statement following a pair of tough losses. The Patriots did win, but not very impressively. Most worrisome non-Randy Moss stat: the team only converted 3/11 third downs. Tom Brady has an interception in three straight games and six of the last seven.

14. Washington Redskins [16] — Better every week. They've set season-high point totals in each of the last two weeks, and they're getting exciting contributions from young players, most notably Brian Orakpo, who had 4 sacks on Sunday. He is only the third rookie to record at least 4 sacks in a game and has a chance to challenge Jevon Kearse's rookie record (14.5). Orakpo was drafted to address the team's woeful pass rush, and he's made a huge impact. He and Andre Carter each have 11 sacks, marking the first time since 1985 that Washington has two players with more than 10 sacks (Dexter Manley and Charles Mann).

15. New York Giants [15] — Playoff hopes are in serious trouble. They don't seem to have a defensive identity this year, and the disparity between their yardage allowed (6th in NFL) and points allowed (25th) continues to astound me. The Giants aren't a bad team, but I think their postseason dream will die in Washington next week.

16. Cincinnati Bengals [8] — Looked lost when the Vikings stuffed their ground attack. Carson Palmer passed for 94 yards on 25 attempts. The defense, missing DT Domato Peko, struggled to generate a pass rush and couldn't stop the run. In the last four weeks, Cincinnati has lost twice and beaten the Browns and Lions. This is not an elite team right now. The offense is weak and one-dimensional, the defense is missing important contributors, and the coaches are making weird decisions. Why try a 22-yard field goal when you're down 23-7 in the fourth quarter? You need touchdowns! This is only your second trip to the red zone, you might not get back here! You can't afford to come away with only three points in that situation.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Of course I'm worried about Maurice Jones-Drew. Prior to this season, he'd never carried the ball more than 197 times in a season. Since matching that mark in Week 11, he's averaging 69 yards per game and 3.4 per carry, with no 100-yard games and no rushes longer than 15 yards. That's down from 96 ypg and 5.1 yds/att before hitting 197.

18. Houston Texans [18] — Best point differential (+38) of any team with a losing record. I'm starting to feel like Houston is just perpetually a year away. There are players here they can build around — Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing — but they just never seem to bring it all together. Except this week, of course. Monster game from Johnson (193 yards, 2 TD).

19. San Francisco 49ers [19] — This team has existed for more than 60 years, and Monday night was the first time it ever forced five fumbles in a game. The 49ers did everything they needed to do, but it's hard to really evaluate them after such a weird game. San Francisco had a 13:30 edge in time of possession, almost a full quarter's worth.

20. New York Jets [21] — Can't throw, but they run okay and play terrific defense. The Jets lead the NFL in both yards and points allowed. They're one of several teams fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC, but their tiebreakers are not favorable, so the Jets probably need to win out. They're unlikely to have any trouble with Atlanta, but after that, they'd better hope the Colts and Bengals are resting players.

21. Carolina Panthers [22] — A poor man's Jets. The ground attack is good, the defense is okay, and the passing game is non-existent. Steve Smith leads the team with 765 receiving yards, and 8,000-year-old Muhsin Muhammad is second, with 411. Smith is likely to fall short of 1,000 for the first time since 2004, when he broke his leg in Week 1. Carolina has only 9 passing TDs this season, less than everyone but Oakland.

22. Atlanta Falcons [23] — Gave the Saints a fight, but couldn't pull it out and have now lost four of their last five games. They're 6-4 when Michael Turner plays, 0-3 when he doesn't.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers [20] — Didn't look like they were ready to play this week. I don't know if it was the short week, or they underestimated the Browns, or just the pressure of keeping their playoff hopes alive, but that failure has to fall on the coaching staff. This was the team's fifth straight defeat, and if you look at the schedule, it's not hard to imagine the Steelers closing the year with eight consecutive losses. They should probably be ranked lower than this, with back-to-back losses against teams ranked below them (Cleveland and Oakland). The defense was the stronger unit this week, but Pittsburgh's bright spot is the young stars on offense. Santonio Holmes has his first 1,000-yard season, and Rashard Mendenhall (940 yds, 4.8 avg) is quickly closing in on his.

24. Seattle Seahawks [24] — Officially eliminated from playoff contention. This week's blowout loss dropped Seattle to 1-6 on the road. Maybe this is beating the obvious drum after their awful performance against Houston, but pass defense is a real problem here. Part of that is due to injury, but I'd look at defensive line and secondary help this offseason. They also need to improve the offensive line. And they should draft a running back. Maybe start looking for a QB of the future, too. Really, there are a lot of issues.

25. Chicago Bears [27] — Jay Cutler was supposed to energize the offense. They've topped 20 points in a game only three times all season, and only once in the last nine games. They're actually averaging fewer points per game (19.0) than they did last year with Kyle Orton (23.4). Cutler leads the NFL in interceptions and has a worse passer rating (75.2) than Orton did in 2008 (79.6). Furthermore, Orton has a better rating in Denver (88.9) than Cutler did (86.0 last year, 87.1 career). Amazing what an offensive line and some receivers will do for you, isn't it? Cutler reminds me of Jeff George, a guy who should be wildly successful but doesn't have his head quite right.

26. Buffalo Bills [26] — If their offense was merely bad, they would probably be in contention for a division title. Because the offense is horrid, so bad that children should be shielded from watching it, the team is 5-8. They have a special pass defense, though. Buffalo leads the NFL in interceptions (25), and rookie DB Jairus Byrd leads all players (9). Most years, Byrd would be a lock for Defensive Rookie of the Year. This season, I'm not sure he's any higher than fourth. Cushing, Orakpo, and Clay Matthews III are all having pretty sensational years. Still, Byrd is right there. Underrated veteran DE Aaron Schobel has had a very good season. You don't get that many picks without some pressure, and Schobel is the one creating most of it. Twelve different Bills have an interception this year.

27. Oakland Raiders [25] — They were doomed once Bruce Gradkowski left with a knee injury (he's doubtful next week), but their real breakdown was on defense. The offense was terrible, too, but that's sort of expected, and Washington has a good defense.

28. Kansas City Chiefs [28] — Last season, playing with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, quarterback Matt Cassel posted an 89.4 passer rating. This season, his leading receiver is Jamaal Charles, a running back who only became starter halfway through the season, and Cassel's rating is 68.3. The Chiefs play Cleveland next week. I suggest you watch something else.

29. Cleveland Browns [32] — Nothing but nice things to say about the Browns this week. They had a great game-plan for the opponent and the weather. They played their hearts out in a game it would have been easy to give up on. Impressive performance from LB Matt Roth.

30. Detroit Lions [29] — They have allowed an astonishing 108.8 passer rating this season. Basically, everyone turns into Drew Brees when they play the Lions. On Sunday, Joe Flacco had a season-high 120.8 rating. Detroit is last in the NFL in both yards and points allowed.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — Beat the Packers in Week 9. The Packers have an outside shot at the Super Bowl. An outside shot. They're not your pick, they're not my pick, but they have a realistic chance. How amazing would it be if Tampa's only win came against the eventual Super Bowl champion?

32. St. Louis Rams [30] — Injuries pushed third-string QB Keith Null, a rookie from West Texas A&M, into action. He threw 5 interceptions. Steven Jackson had his worst game of the season (19 att, 47 yards) and the defense did nothing positive to speak of. The Rams have been outscored by a league-worst 215 points this season, which is already one of the worst margins in history. If they keep this up, the Rams should be considered one of the very worst teams in league history.