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December 31, 2009

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (+7)

With a win in St. Louis, the 49ers would finish 8-8, with a winning percentage just slightly lower than Alex Smith's completion percentage, but much higher than the typical percentage fee charged by bail bondsmen, or, as known to Michael Crabtree, "agent responsible for negotiating my financial security."

"Hey, I've learned a lot this year," says Crabtree. "Most importantly, the fact that in contract negotiations, it's best if your agent doesn't carry a sidearm. I've heard of signing contracts with a ballpoint, but never at gunpoint."

"And speaking of 'warning shots,' a win over the Rams would give us a 5-1 division record, best in the West, and would signal to our division rivals that there'll be a new sheriff in town come 2010. And said sheriff's gun won't be just for show. With the Christmas season past us, sightings of flying reindeer will become just as rare as sightings of 'winning' Rams. In St. Louis, we'll prove that men are men, and sheep are nervous."

Frank Gore rushes for 102 yards and a touchdown, and the 49ers ground out a 24-20 win.

NY Giants @ Minnesota (-9)

With reasons for motivation in abundance, the Giants played with a total lack of it in a 41-9 destruction at the hands of the Panthers last week. Sunday's game was the last at Giants Stadium, and New York was desperate for a win to strengthen hope for a playoff berth, but the G-Men laid an egg anyway, turning the ball over 4 times and surrendering 247 yards on the ground.

"One would think," says Eli Manning, "that with Lawrence Taylor in attendance, we would have gone out there and played like a bunch of crazed dogs. But the presence of a 'slimmed down' Taylor doesn't quite pack the motivational punch of a 'coked up' Taylor. In a time of year when many make vows to be better, we showed very little 'New York resolution.'"

The Giants will face the Vikings, who lost for the third time in their last four game with a 36-30 overtime loss at Chicago on Monday night. Minnesota would clinch the number two seed with a win and a Philadelphia loss, while a loss would drop them to either the number three or four seed.

"That's right," says Brad Childress. "It's a case of an NFC power struggle. Oh no, I'm not talking about the Vikings, Eagles, and Cardinals. I'm talking about Brett Favre and myself battling over who's making decisions on this team. You would thing Favre would acquiesce at least once in his life, but when have we known Favre to 'walk away' from anything in his career? Does he think just because he's one of the NFL's all-time greats he can do as he please? Maybe he should star in a movie called There's Something About Legend-ary. You know, Joe Montana had no trouble at all walking away from the game. And nothing could drag him back, not even an exorbitant appearance fee to show up at Super Bowl 40 in celebration of the games' MVP's. "

Vikings win, 31-24.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-3)

Just four weeks ago, the Jaguars were 7-5 and first in line for one of the AFC's two wild card berths. Since then, they've lost three straight, and although they're still in contention, they'd need a series of unlikely events to clinch a playoff spot.

"This is Florida," says Jack Del Rio. "Stranger things have happened. Hopefully, we'll remain motivated, and maybe a 'spirited practice' or two will change the course of history. We just need to handle our business and beat the Browns, which won't be easy in Cleveland Stadium. We're 2-5 on the road, which is awful, so we need to treat this as if it's a home game. That will be easy, because there will be about 126 Jag fans in the crowd."

"As for those reports that have the Jags drafting Tim Tebow, as well as Urban Meyer replacing me as coach, well, those Jesus freaks may be able to put people in the pews, but not in the stands. This team doesn't need to be closer to God; we need to be closer to the Colts."

The Browns walloped the Raiders 23-9, improving to 4-11 and now riding the wave of a three-game winning streak. Eric Mangini has remained collected in the face of recent front office changes, and that calm demeanor has been the catalyst for the Browns recent run.

"Coach Mangini has a lot of support," says Joshua Cribbs, "mostly in his girdle. But the attitude in the locker room is a far cry from what it was early in the season. Earlier this year, the team was standing firmly behind him, but that was when asked if we'd take a bullet for him. Now, he has our full support, and he's kept this team together. We're cool. He's cool. So cool, in fact, that we no longer call him the 'Ice Man(gini).' Now, he goes by the moniker 'Funky Cold Mangini.'"

Jags finally play like it means something and wins, 23-16. In the end, though, it doesn't mean anything.

Pittsburgh @ Miami (+3)

The Steelers are 9-7 after a big win against the Ravens, and while their playoff hopes are slim, there's still a chance Pittsburgh could slip in. The Steelers need to win in Miami, and would benefit from losses by the Ravens, Jets, Broncos, and Texans.

"Five-game losing streaks tend to loosen your grip on destiny," says Ben Roethlisberger. "And make your teammates start questioning your toughness. And cause your coach to make unwise decisions, like onside kicking with a lead. And make you start doubting whether Head And Shoulders shampoo does, in fact, provide seven benefits to healthy hair, or is there something in it that is keeping your star safety from playing. If there's one thing this defense is lacking, it's mettle, 'hair' mettle."

Despite losing to the Texans last week to fall to 7-8, the Dolphins still have a chance to make the playoffs, but the explanation of such a scenario would be a difficult concept to comprehend even for Jets coach Rex Ryan, much less the average football fan. In fact, Dolphins coach Tony Sparano is himself surprised that the 'Fins have a chance.

"Just when I think I'm out," says Sparano, "they pull me back in. That's what my great-grandfather Vito Sparano said back in '35 when he tried to get out of the family olive oil business to pursue a career in the circus. And it applies to our playoff chances this year."

"Now, from what I understand, we need to win, and the Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, and Jaguars all need to lose. Sure, the odds are long, but nobody wants to see me throw in the towel, lest not on the season, and especially not in the sauna."

Steelers win, 27-20.

New England @ Houston (-7)

The Patriots clinched the AFC West with a convincing 35-7 rout of the Jaguars as Randy Moss caught 3 touchdown passes from Tom Brady. Since his low point against the Panthers, when his heart was questioned, Moss has caught 4 TD passes, and the Pats again look like a team to be reckoned with.

"There was never any doubt in my mind that Randy would be ready for the postseason," says Brady. "When has he ever been caught 'with his pants down' in the playoffs? Despite Joe Buck's overreaction to that incident, Randy did not, in fact, pull his pants down. It was a 'simulated' mooning, just as Randy's effort is often 'simulated.'

While the Patriots are in, the Texans are still fighting for a playoff spot, and need a win, plus two losses among the Jets, Broncos, and Ravens. Houston features the NFL's yardage leaders in passing and receiving in Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, respectively.

"Andre is Moss without the drama," says Schaub, "and the hillbilly homeboy accent."

"Win or lose, though, you'd have to say we've had a successful season. If just a few balls would have gone our way, particularly, two over the crossbar against the Colts, then we'd be facing a vastly different situation right now. That's why we call our kicker, Kris Brown, by his wife's name, 'Miss' Brown."

Bill Belichick has said that "whoever plays, plays" in regards to how much his starters will play against the Texans. Quick, somebody chisel that into a stone tablet so, 1,000 years from now, some genius can translate so everyone will know what the hell those words mean.

Schaub throws for 315 yards and 3 scores, 2 to Johnson, and the Texans win, 31-17.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-1)

The Bucs stunning overtime defeat of the Saints left many observers doing a double-take, including Saints owner Tom Benson, who unwittingly celebrated a Saints win although New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley missed the game-winning field goal. But those double-takes pale in comparison to the "spit-takes" unleashed in reaction to rumors that Bill Cowher may be the new head coach of the Buccaneers.

"Hey, you know what they say about rumors," says Cadillac Williams. "'Loose lips sink ships.' Well, if Cowher is, in fact, headed to Tampa, that saying should be revised to 'Loose lips rebuild ships.' But let's not jump too far ahead on this matter. The ink's not even dry on the contract, nor is the spittle. Raheem Morris is still the coach, but in the world of the impatient Glazer brothers, owners of the Bucs, a coach can be gone in a heartbeat. If you listen closely, you can hear music coming from the pirate ship in the end zone. It's Nancy Sinatra's 'This Plank Was Made For Walking.'"

Atlanta wins, 23-21.

New Orleans @ Carolina (-7)

It's not often a 13-2 team can be classified as 'reeling,' but the Saints, who just weeks ago looked like the favorite as NFC champions, have now lost two in a row. After being bullied by the Cowboys on December 19th, the Saints blew a 17-0 lead to the Bucs and lost 20-17 in overtime. On Sunday, they face a rejuvenated Panthers team that would like nothing more than to knock the Saints down another notch.

"Obviously, we've lost our 'meaux jeaux,'" says Drew Brees. "Maybe it's lost somewhere in our rush defense, and I'm sure the Panthers, decent people that they are, will offer us ample opportunity to find it."

"But thanks to the Vikings loss on Monday, we've clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. And we've got to thank the Bears for that. Heck, they owed us. The last time a Bear showed that much generosity, Mike Ditka gave away our entire draft for Ricky Williams."

The Panthers pasted the Giants 41-9 for their second straight impressive victory after Week 15's 26-7 win over the Vikings. Matt Moore threw for 3 touchdowns in the win over the Giants, and has made a strong case to keep the starting job in 2010. Moore is 3-1 in his four starts this year.

"Jake's stock has sunk like a rock in the swamps of his native state of Louisiana," says John Fox. "Since he broke his finger and Matt's started, this team's done a complete 'Bayou'-turn. Not only that, but Julius Peppers has lately been playing like a man possessed. And that's as it should be. At a price of $1 million per game, you'd think we'd need an exorcist to manage Peppers' 'possession.'"

Panthers win, 30-20.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-3)

The NFC East title will be on the line when the 10-4 Cowboys host the 11-5 Eagles. Dallas locked up a playoff spot with a 17-0 win in Washington on Sunday night. If you watched that broadcast on NBC, you saw the video of Jerry Jones saying he didn't feel the need for a coaching change, although he would like that feeling "ratified" by a playoff win. The Cowboys' last postseason success came in 1996.

"I regularly have my feelings 'ratified' by beautiful blonde starlets," says Tony Romo. "But you know Jerry, he's the only owner who can offer a vote of confidence and and then a backhanded retraction in the same sentence."

The Eagles, winners of their last six, appear primed for a postseason run much like last year's, which culminated in a loss in Arizona in the NFC Championship Game.

"We're certainly the hottest team in the NFC right now," says Donovan McNabb. "Most of the credit for our success in that span goes to DeSean Jackson, who can break down defenses in a number of ways. He's carried us. I haven't seen this many people relying on a 'Jackson' since Michael Jackson passed away. His kin give parasites a bad name."

"Anyway, the Cowboys have as much to gain with a win as we do. And just as much to lose. This is truly a 'loser leaves town' match. The loser likely goes on the road for the first-round of the playoffs."

Romo out-duels McNabb, and throws for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Cowboys win, 34-28.

Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-7)

Hey, the Colts used to be members of the AFC East, and a feeling of overwhelming nostalgia must have been responsible for Indianapolis's seasonal kindness towards their former East rivals. Jim Caldwell pulled Peyton Manning and several starters in the third quarter, thus enabling the Jets to storm back from a 15-10 deficit to a 29-15 win, a victory which kept their playoff hopes alive.

"And that had to thrill the members of the 1972 Dolphins team," says Peyton Manning. "With our many undefeated starts, we've made it a habit to please those old timers quite often when we lose. You could say we're like their colostomy bags — we're the reason they can 'relieve' themselves."

"As you could tell by my agitated state on the sideline, I was not very happy with Jim Caldwell's decision to pull the starters. But let's give him credit — it's the first decision he's made all year. And who am I to argue with a decision a coach makes? Wait a minute. I change nearly every play called in the huddle."

The Colts will face a 5-10 Bills team eager for a win, no matter how tainted.

"Hey, if the Colts want to play their second- and third-string," says Terrell Owens, "it's fine by us. It might be the first evenly-matched game we've played this year. And I think it's wrong for Colts fan to be upset with Caldwell's decision. Don't call the man names. Well, if you must call him a name. why not call him the 'Skeet Shooter,' because where his starters are concerned, he's always saying 'Pull!'"

Indianapolis wins, 24-21.

Chicago @ Detroit (+3)

In the Bears' 36-30 overtime win over the Vikings on Monday night, Jay Cutler threw for 273 yards and 4 touchdowns, including the game-winning score in overtime.

"That's the kind of performance we expected out of Cutler when we traded for him in the offseason," says Lovie Smith. "Maybe the expectations were just too much for Jay to live up to. God knows Rex Grossman set the bar high."

"In hindsight, the trade wasn't a good idea. If I had it to do over, I probably would have ordered Cutler and Josh McDaniels to seek couples counseling. It would have done us good had they stayed together. I think we celebrated a little too much here when Cutler arrived. He was feted. Since then, for the most part, he's been fetid."

Lions win, 27-24.

Washington @ San Diego (-6½)

The Chargers clinched a first-round bye with a 42-17 win on Christmas over the Titans. With the longest current winning streak in the league right now, at 10, many feel that San Diego will be the most dangerous team in the playoffs.

"Do you know what rhymes with 'first-round bye?'" says Philip Rivers. "'Evil eye.' And that's exactly what we're giving the Colts. People say lightning doesn't strike twice. It already has where Indy is concerned. I don't want to say we're certain to beat t he Colts should we meet. I'm just saying their chances to beat us are far from a 'lock'; they're a 'dead bolt.'"

In Washington, the talk of Mike Shanahan's hiring has become louder, and Jim Zorn's firing has become imminent. The 'Skins suffered their first shutout of the year, falling 17-0 to Dallas last week.

"There's a lot of unhappy people in Washington," says Albert Haynesworth. "And I'm one of them, which proves the age-old adage that money, not even $100 million, can buy happiness. It does, however, pay off quite a few fines."

"I would love to have a coach like Mike Shanahan in Washington. Right now, there's nothing of his caliber in Washington, except for maybe the contents of Gilbert Arenas' locker."

San Diego wins, 27-13.

Baltimore @ Oakland (+10)

Despite losing to the Steelers last week, the Ravens still have a firm grasp on their playoff destiny, needing a win to qualify. They have to do that in Oakland against the unpredictable Raiders, a team that has beaten the Steelers and Bengals this year, yet lost to the Browns last week. Ray Lewis and his fellow Ravens know that there is a job to do.

"'Black Hole' chore," quoth the Raven. "'Black Hole' chore."

"Of course, it's never easy playing in Oakland, especially for the home team. I can't imagine the pressure of having to please the likes of Darth Vader, Skeletor, and the hordes of other characters that occupy the Black Hole. And I'm sure the Grim Reaper is somewhere amidst the crowd. At least he is when he's not busy tapping Al Davis on the shoulder. But, like the Raiders, those creatures are nothing to fear. The Raiders are mediocre; those beasts are 'medi-ogres.'"

The lone bright spot in the Raiders' 23-9 loss in Cleveland last week was kicker Sebastian Janikowski, who booted 3 field goals, including a 61-yarder, a Raiders record.

"This is something that I'll remember forever," says Janikowski. "I've had many 'dates' in my life, but none of them could ever say that. But 'records' don't really mean much to me, because I already have one. I like my goal posts 'upright,' but not my dates."

Joe Flacco throws for 2 scores, including the game-winner to Ray Rice, and Baltimore wins, 20-13.

Kansas City @ Denver (-11)

It seems that in the AFC, "destiny" is much like a hot potato: no one wants to hold it in their hands. The Broncos are no exception. In the course of a season, Denver has gone from "sure-fire" AFC West champions (after a 6-0 start) to a "sure-fire" wild card team (8-4 after Week 13) to a team on the bubble. That's where they stand now. After three consecutive losses, the Broncos are 8-7 and win or lose, need lots of help to make the playoffs.

"We've made our bed," says Brandon Marshall, "and now we have to sleep in it. Unfortunately, it's a bed of nails, which is a might more uncomfortable than former Bronco running back and procreator Travis Henry's bed of 'nails.' I'm not sure what number is higher — my receptions, or Henry's conceptions."

"Anyway, I don't think Josh McDaniels will allow us to lose sight of our goal. He has a special way of motivation us, and can always find just the right word to move us in the right direction. That word starts with 'f' and ends with '-ers.'"

Marshall has ten catches for 99 yards and a touchdown, and the Broncos win, 24-7.

Green Bay @ Arizona (-3)

With a wild card berth already sealed, all that remains for the Packers is determining their travel plans for the playoffs. With several NFC seeding scenarios yet to be solidified, Green Bay could very well be making a return trip to Arizona for a wild card playoff game.

"It doesn't compare to the Lambeau Field 'mystique,'" says Aaron Rodgers, "but University of Phoenix Stadium has a certain 'aura' of its own. I believe it's called a 'roof.' At Lambeau, you can soak up the lore of NFL championships past. You can't do that at the U of P Stadium, although you can get an online degree."

Due to Minnesota's loss last week, the Cardinals have a shot at acquiring the number two seed and a first-round bye. A win over the Packers, in conjunction with Vikings and Eagles losses, would give Arizona that distinction.

"We'd love to capture that two seed and take a week off," says Larry Fitzgerald. "And I like our odds. Usually, when you 'go number two,' you 'take a seat.'"

Arizona wins, 31-27.

Tennessee @ Seattle (+5)

With both the Titans and the Seahawks eliminated from the playoff picture, all of the attention in Sunday's game in Seattle will be on Chris Johnson's pursuit of the NFL rushing yards and yards from scrimmage records. Johnson needs 233 yards to tie Eric Dickerson's NFL record of 2,105 set in 1984, and needs only 74 yards to reach Marshall Faulk's record of 2,429 yards from scrimmage set in 1999.

"It was very kind of the Seahawks to rename their venue Qwest Field on my behalf," says Johnson. "What's that? It's always been called that? That's too bad. Anyway, I'll be the only brush with greatness the Seahawks have seen this year. Dickerson's record may be out of reach, but Faulk's is sure to fall — hard. With apologies to LenDale White, 'Smash and Dash' will be a solo project in Seattle."

Johnson easily surpasses Faulk, racking up 168 yards from scrimmage, but falls short of Dickerson's mark. However, Johnson rushes for 139 yards, bringing his season total to 2,011, which all but guarantees he'll grace the cover of EA Sports Madden 2011 game.

Titans win, 24-17.

Cincinnati @ NY Jets (-9)

Cincinnati officially clinched the AFC North with a sloppy 17-10 win over the Chiefs, and will enter the playoffs as either the number three or four seed. That seeding depends on the outcome of the Bengals Sunday night game in the Meadowlands against the Jets, as well as the New England/Houston tilt earlier in the day.

"So, by all accounts," says Carson Palmer, "we'll know our position before the game even starts. Let's assume the Patriots win, which will leave us nothing to play for. In turn, our starters won't play a full game, thus giving the Jets a likely, and needed, win. Apparently, there's a consensus among playoff teams that they all want the Jets in the playoffs. So, in essence, if the Jets playoff hopes are a hot dog, then their final two games this year are 'all the fixins,' because with teams laying down in front of them, they Jets can go 'all the way' to the playoffs."

With a win, the Jets will clinch a playoff spot regardless of what the AFC's other six wild card contenders do.

"I resent the allegations that the Colts 'let' us win," says Rex Ryan. "And I think it's ludicrous to surmise that the Bengals will do the same because it's advantageous for them to face us in the playoffs. What do we look like? The gift that keeps on giving? It is, however, ironic that the famous words of Herman Edwards, 'You play to win the game,' won't be heeded by our opponents. So, once again, no one's listening to Herman."

Jets wins, 27-10.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:50 AM | Comments (2)

Slant Pattern at the World Series of Poker

I write about poker in this space about, I don't know, once a year. And like with other competitions, I'm a better chronicler than participant. I love poker and I love playing, but my lifetime earnings are probably only a hair more than I have spent, I usually play without enough focus and discipline (online, that means watching a game and surfing the web while I play), and I don't study enough.

But I do play, and one of the things that appeals to me about the game is that it's relatively easy to rub elbows with some of the world's best. Daniel Negreanu, Barry Greenstein, and a legion of other top pros post at least occasionally on 2+2, the Internet's preeminent poker site. The first post I remember making there was first responded to by Jimmy Fricke, fresh off a 795K runner-up finish in the Aussie Millions main event.

Can you imagine LeBron James being a regular poster on some Cavs forum? I know that Curt Schilling has posted on the Red Sox's legendary Sons of Sam Horn message board, and I'm sure there are some other isolated examples, but not nearly to the extent that poker Gods will gladly consort with poker peons.

That accessibility works both ways, too ... you can play against 99% of today's poker pros if you pony up a tournament entry fee or a couple hundred blinds in cash games at a level that's, while not insignificant, is at least doable.

Hence, when the World Series of Poker Circuit rolled into Harrah's in Atlantic City two weeks ago, I plunked down enough ($230) to play in one of the events. The buy-in was small enough that I'm certain the Joes well outnumbered the Pros, but looking at the career winnings of players who cashed, I doubt it was an all-amateur event.

I was giddy enough to take pictures of the poker room, my seat assignment slip, and the World Series of Poker makeshift arch over one of the walkways. I'd played in a few Atlantic City tournaments before, but just chintzy casino-held ones ... this was the World Series of Poker circuit.

I don't remember as much as I thought I would remember. Sorry to trot out the cliche, but a lot of it was a blur.

I remember shockingly little about the other players. I saw a lot of the cliches — chatty. fun-loving, beer-drinking Asians a la Scotty Nguyen, gruff curmudgeons who seemed to not be having fun at all, and soooo many hotshot kids that, it seemed certain, were making big poker money online.

And a word about these kids ... I must be getting old because I'm really starting to hate their fashion sense. I'm speaking particularly about the way all of them wear their caps placed precariously on top of their heads at any angle, the bill not even slightly clipped down, and usually, for the fitted ones, the size sticker still affixed.

I mean it when I say all of them. This look isn't the exclusive province of one strata of the post-adolescent sphere. Black kids, white kids, loud kids, quiet kids, thoughtful kids, funny kids ... they were all wearing them that way. And that's why I say I'm getting old ... because it's no longer just a faction whose fashion I despise.

I remember far more about the dealers than the players. I can't put my finger on it, but I am fascinated by them in an anthropological sense. At least at this event, the dealers' contingent was ethically diverse enough to outshine the most ambitious model UN. To prevent collusion, the dealers switch off rapidly.

I started with Donald, a blonde twenty-something kid, very competent and a good one-liner reactive sense of humor. Then it was Reggie, perhaps my favorite dealer of the night. He really did look a tiny bit like Reggie Jackson, and he kept the table lively with his banter, calling out the action.

Then was Avraham, a red-headed, no-nonsense hulk whom you would expect to see working security. Renee was probably in her late-30s, seemed kind of trailer-parky, and was a terrrrible dealer — she made frequent hand-killing mistakes and at one point forgot to pick up my small blind on a pot another player won.

"Hey," I said, "you didn't pick up my blind."

She looked mortified by her own mistake. "I appreciate your honesty, sir."

That invoked a debate with half the table, some praising my actions and the good karma it should bring, others incredulous that I didn't take advantage of the mistake.

Then came Demetrios, my favorite dealer besides Reggie. I'm not even sure why, he was pretty quiet, but he had these half-closed eyes, a la "Sleepy" Floyd, that made hlm look high and made you want to get high with him (to be sure, he was very alert and competent).

Then I had more dealers — retirees, mostly, that I forget now, and second go-rounds with Donald, Reggie, Demetrios, and a young Asian lady with a strong accent whose long hair covered her name tag. Then an Asian male, Dung (laugh now, get it out of your system). By the time I got to Dung, I was very tired and making poker-etiquette mistakes that he had to endure/correct, or forgetting to put my blinds or antes in.

Finally came Juan, whom I'm guessing was Dominican because he sounded like Edward James Olmos, but looked like an older version of Isaac from "The Love Boat." He also suffered my errors, and less gladly than Dung.

As far as the cards go, I was luckier than I was skilled. I got pocket kings at least five times, and I just seemed to hit the flop when I really needed to, must memorably when I as the big blind with 33 got in a multiway flop that came down 443. I won a lot on that hand, but should have won more, because I apparently overreacted ... I hemmed and hawed and shook my head and carried on and then reluctantly called another player's turn bet. On the river, he checked, I waited awhile before making a bet, and he insta-folded.

"Man, that flop hit you HARD!" said a player next to me, not involved in the hand. "Look at you, going for the Academy Award."

That was sort of an ongoing theme with me throughout the night, predictability. I guess I was playing ABC, unimaginative poker. No less than four times, a player folded or called my bet while correctly verbalizing the hand I held. And, again, I was lucky. Twice I doubled up when someone made all-in bluffs when I held a monster.

At midnight, 13 hours hours after play began, I was seated at the final table, with comfier chairs and a beside a mini-grandstand of 10 seats. I was eighth out of those 10. When the short stack pushed all-in, I called with AK. He showed JJ, and I did not improve.

That made me the short stack, and with just four or five big blinds (and I would have been the big blind in the next hand). I shoved with A5. The chip leader re-raised all-in and got a caller. That caused quite a commotion as they both turned over KK. Hitting an ace would mean tripling up and put me in great shape. Alas, it did not occur and I went out in 10th. I filled out some paperwork and Juan escorted me downstairs to the cashier, which made me feel important.

Sucks, too, because the prize money tripled from 10th to ninth, and it's with nine left that the WSOP photographer and journalist arrived to start writing up the action.

Oh well. I can't complain on finishing 10th out of 521 and winning a grand. Well worth my once-yearly poker article, and I'm looking forward to seeing my buddy, the hand holding a 5-card straight on oversized cards that Marc James, venerable editor of the site, always puts with my poker pieces.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

December 30, 2009

Rogue Commissioner: NBA's David Stern

"Considering the fact that so many state governments — probably between 40 and 50 — don't consider it immoral, I don't think that anyone should. It may be a little immoral because in reality it is a tax on the poor; the lotteries. But having said that, it's now a matter of national policy. Gambling is good."

No, that high-profile quote is not attributable to a member of the U.S. Congress, a state governor nor other public official or public figure. Most people had no clue who said it until it was published on December 11, 2009 in a Sports Illustrated interview that writer Ian Thomsen had with NBA Commissioner David Stern. In it, Stern reveals that his stance on legalized sports betting has softened.

But having been the NBA's face for the past 25 years, Stern has no less been a shrewd businessman. Moreover, as a studied attorney, he knows the meaning of precedent and its value in proving one's case.

As such, the prevailing precedent Stern created was his steadfast endorsement of the prohibition of legalized sports betting. And therefore, as he has now seemingly opened Pandora's Box, if but a crack, his juxtaposition may not be greeted with such warm and fuzzy feelings by the commissioners of the other professional sports leagues, as well as the NCAA.

For it was but a few short months ago, in July 2009, when the NBA joined suit with the NFL, MLB, NHL, and the NCAA in successfully defeating the state of Delaware in its attempt to legalize single game sports betting in its state.

The case in Delaware was based upon the legal theory that the 1992 federal law, known as the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), was not applicable to it. In three court hearings, the last before the full 12-judge panel of the U.S. 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals, found that Delaware was not entitled to offer sports betting a la Las Vegas-style sportsbooks sports betting.

So Delaware had to settle for NFL only three-game parlay style betting, which links together two or more individual wagers, but is dependent on all of those wagers winning together in order for the gambler to profit. In addition, all sports bets must be waged solely at Delaware's race tracks, Dover Downs and Delaware Park. Aside from a hit that the NFL took, however, the other leagues prevailed in winning their case.

In brief, states that offered lottery style or legalized sports betting from 1976-1990 were exempt from the PASPA, and it provided a one-year grace period for states, who had allowed sports betting over the previous 10-year period, to create legislation permitting sports wagering. Delaware, Oregon, Montana, and Nevada had such exemptions. But Delaware did not act within that one-year period, thus creating its present dilemma.

Since Delaware offered a three-game parley lottery on NFL games in 1976, it was offered no more than that which it had previously enjoyed.

The leagues, including the NBA, however, played no small role, along with several members of the U.S. Congress, in winning the case. They all appealed to U.S. Attorney General, Eric holder, in their opposition to grandfathering in any sports wagering of any kind. And in the end, Delaware came up short, where its last act would only be to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. It does not have any such plans at this time.

Back in 2007, Commissioner Stern agreed to hold the NBA's 2007 All-Star Game in Las Vegas, NV, which remains the only state in the Union which allows single bets to be taken at sportsbooks for every league in professional and college sports and for every team. The only exceptions are the NBA's Sacramento Kings and the Boston Celtics, along with the teams they are playing against on any given day. And such limitations are only with respect to specific casino properties.

The reason for that is that the Palms Hotel and Casino is owned by Joe and Gavin Maloof, who also own the Kings and previously owned the WNBA's Sacramento Monarchs. The other exception is Harrah's Entertainment, Inc., which owns a minority interest in the Boston Celtics.

As Harrah's own numerous Las Vegas casino hotels, no sports bets on Celtics games or their respective opponents may be taken at those Harrah casinos that have sportsbooks, as mandated by the NBA. Prior to 2008, the Palms Casino was not permitted to have sports betting on any NBA teams, but the NBA Board of Governors ruled to allow the Palms to join the rest of the Strip properties, doing so in October 2008.

And during 2007, David Stern had talks with Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman regarding the mayor's interest in acquiring an NBA franchise for his city. But the future looked bleak at that time. Now the NBA's Summer League is a fixture there, as well as a training ground for USA Basketball and the U.S. Olympic team. And by 2008, Stern had decided to allow the NBA owners to decide whether there will be a future for an NBA club in Las Vegas.

Fast forward to 2009 and Stern now says, "Las Vegas is not evil. Las Vegas is a vacation destination resort and they have sports gambling." He apparently has come a long way from the 2007 All-Star Game when he was adamant about blocking any potential ownership opportunities for his league in Las Vegas. Apparently, the Maloof brothers have done a nice job convincing him otherwise.

The Tim Donaghy referee scandal, also in 2007, put a crimp in Stern's possible growing interest in a potential marriage with games of chance. At that time, Stern ordered the drafting of new policies with respect to NBA referees' off-season limit on gambling at legalized casinos. It is now permissible. However, sports betting is off-limits any time of the year. Ironically, Tim Donaghy's alleged gambling addiction started in legal gambling casinos, now endorsed for NBA referees by David Stern himself.

However, NBA referees are now more closely scrutinized and monitored in their off-court and off-season behaviors, requiring more invasive background and credit checks, while under the employ of the NBA.

And now it makes even more sense as to why Stern would insist that Tim Donaghy was a "rogue" or lone referee with regard to passing on inside information to illegal bookmakers and organized crime syndicates. Yet, both the FBI and the NBA's own internal investigation found that any of Donaghy's malfeasances did not alter game outcomes. Still, Donaghy was convicted and served 15 months prison time, including a fine of $500,000 and $30,000 in required restitution to the NBA.

Assuming that Stern had a grand scheme all along to eventually cash in his chips for a piece of the gambling revenue empire for the NBA, Donaghy merely mucked up the works temporarily, as Stern necessarily went into high gear damage control or virtual denial.

It was by mere coincidence, however, that the FBI even stumbled upon Donaghy, and obviously not through the lax mechanisms in place in Stern's house, which was neither equipped nor anxious to reveal any corruption in his ranks. An investigation by the federal government into the Gambino Crime Family is what prompted the FBI's findings; and was flawlessly staged as a complete surprise and seemingly unfathomable to the NBA's Stern.

And although David Stern might be out of step with the other professional leagues' commissioners, as concerns legalized sports betting, with the exception of his joining them in the Delaware lawsuit, he is right in line with multi-national corporations, global investors, foreign governments, U.S. state governments, and gamblers of all kinds in the U.S. and throughout the world.

If anything, one must agree that David Stern is a master at playing both sides of the fence and therefore may not be as inconsistent as many have criticized him for being since the Sports Illustrated article broke.

So is Stern a hypocrite or merely an evolved businessman wanting to cash in his chips, so to speak?

It is estimated that in the U.S. alone, nationalized legal sports betting income taxes and sin taxes could generate over $40 billion over 10 years. And that does not include the take that the NBA would stand to gain from ancillary revenue streams.

With the United Kingdom, Australia, other European entities, as well as China in the sports betting business, many in the U.S. Congress, for example, believe legalized sports betting and online gaming would but eliminate illegal off-shore gambling and would be a win-win both for the government and private enterprise, while removing the organized crime quotient.

But whether such comes to pass in the near future remains to be seen, although cash-strapped states remain hopeful. Yet, in this economy, it is anyone's bet. Yes "gambling is good." But is it not ultimately about greed?

And the NBA's appearance of duplicity will continue to have its critics:

"Apparently, the NBA is not as a concerned about the integrity of the league when their teams' owners' money is at stake." – Delaware House Majority Leader Peter C. Schwartzkopf (07/28/09)

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:33 AM | Comments (2)

Lost Christmas Letters to Santa

The holiday season is winding down and another Christmas has come and gone. Students are enjoying the winter break and heading to see their school's football team play in a bowl game if they're lucky, while conference play gets underway in basketball.

But the Christmas hangover has left a mess on the college football field. There are players under investigation and coaches "taking a leave of absence" unexpectedly. It looked like Santa was a little too busy drinking the eggnog instead of the milk and didn't help the cause.

I consider myself to be a friendly and helpful person, so I decided to stick around and help clean up after everybody. While doing so, I stumbled upon a few pieces of paper that the man in the red suit left behind: Christmas letters to Santa.

The first one I found was from USC's Joe McKnight. The junior running back ran for more than 1,000 yards for the first time in a Trojans uniform and helped a rebuilt USC team.

Dear Santa,

I feel like I've been a good boy this year, as I'm having my most productive season this year. Everything is going great, so I don't really know what I want this year. I got a new phone earlier this year, an Xbox 360 over the summer and a nice iPod this past semester.

I've even been riding my 2006 Land Rover around campus. Well, it's not mine. It's registered to another guy, who just happens to own a company called USC Marketing. But USC doesn't stand for what you think. It stands for United States-China. You know, like international marketing. And that website he owns about me — 4joemcknight.com — doesn't mean anything. It's just a website. And as for the car, I don't even have to pay for it. My girlfriend makes all the payments. But I'm the one who gets to drive it. Okay, well, I know it sounds confusing, but trust me, it all makes sense.

Um, I guess I wouldn't mind new rims and a stereo system for the SUV, then. I hope I'm still on the good list.

Joe #4

McKinght's letter got a little confusing and had me thinking for a while as I was cleaning up. But then I came across a letter from former — or still current — head coach of the Florida Gators, Urban Meyer.

Dear Santa,

It's been a while since I've written to you, but I feel like I have the time to do so. And now that I'm back with the kids and doing a lot of family stuff, I decided to write you a letter with them. It's a nice feeling to not have to worry about coaching players or mentoring young players. I finally have time for my family.

And I know I've been a good boy this year. After all, who couldn't be with a player like Tim Tebow leading your team? He's so nice. He's the best quarterback — no, football player — in the whole wide world. This whole team was great. They should be fighting for a national championship right now, but that's not the way things worked out. Oh, well, they'll have a great time in the Sugar Bowl.

Actually, now that I think about it, I want to go there, too, and be with the boys. I don't think I'm going to resign and rather just take some time to enjoy the holidays. After that, it's back to the old grind.

Just give me some good health and we'll be good to go. At least I'm not in South Bend.

Thanks,
Urban

Speaking of South Bend, there was another note from former head coach Charlie Weis on the ground.

Hey Santa,

I don't even know what to say about this past year. I thought I was good, but my team was bad. My wish already came true: I'm out of Notre Dame. Finally.

I'm cool with some new sweatpants and a half-dozen Krispy Kreme donuts.

Thanks,
Chuck

There was another letter that I found from Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach, but it was hard to read. It looked like it was written in the darkest place of the Red Raiders locker room. Maybe next year.

Posted by Jay Huerbin at 11:18 AM | Comments (0)

December 29, 2009

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* No postgame show has more fun than NFL Network. It's like FOX was 10 years ago.

* Brandon Stokley is the last player I would have expected to get ejected from a game.

* Jon Gruden claimed on Monday that Minnesota's 40-year-old QB "has had the best single season of his career statistically." I don't have the energy to do this again, but it's not true.

* Ron Jaworski and Gruden despise each other. At the very least, Gruden doesn't like Jaws. Why pay three people to mangle a job two could do for less money? Mike Tirico and Jaworski would be a great booth.

* Jaws said this week that Jay Cutler rolling out was "reminiscent of his great years with the Broncos." Which raises the question: what great years with the Broncos?

***

"The Vikings Are Not Better Because of Their 40-Year-Old QB," a short essay by Brad Oremland.

For starters, are this year's Vikings actually any better than last year's? The 2008 Vikings won the NFC North, going 10-6 against a very tough schedule (.504). The 2009 Vikings have clinched the NFC North, going 11-4 against a very weak schedule (.427). I fail to see a significant difference. But let's say this year's team really is better. Is it possible that Percy Harvin and Phil Loadholt have helped improve the team? Harvin is expected to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Loadholt has started 14 games and played well. Which is more likely, that the team has improved because it added two great rookies, or that the team improved by adding a 40-year-old quarterback who had one good season in the previous four years?

The teams with the best records are dropping quickly in the rankings, so I'll remind new readers that these rankings are for right now and are not intended to reflect a team's accomplishments over the entire season. As we get to the Week 16 rankings themselves, brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. San Diego Chargers [2] — Dominated Tennessee on Friday night, controlling time of possession 2:1. The Chargers ran the same play over and over again, pulling the left guard and running behind the right side of their line. They did it with starters in the first three quarters and with backups to run out the clock. The Titans couldn't stop it. Center Nick Hardwick is back from injury just in time for the playoffs and looks ready to go. A few weeks ago, I called Philip Rivers the third-best QB in the NFL. He might be the best, and is a serious threat to overtake Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as my all-pro QB and/or MVP choice. Rivers is one of those players who wills his team to victory, who just won't accept a loss.

2. Philadelphia Eagles [5] — Their six-game winning streak is twice as long as any except San Diego's 10 in a row. Donovan McNabb had a key 27-yard scramble this weekend. Once the most feared scrambler in the league, McNabb is still a capable runner, and the Eagles would probably benefit if he pulled the ball down a little more often. Center Jamaal Jackson left Sunday's game with a torn ACL. Jackson is the best player on that line (Jason Peters had a terrible game against Denver), and the team will miss him in the postseason.

3. Indianapolis Colts [1] — Here they go again. It's frustrating to watch a great team throw its season away, and that's what I believe the Colts are doing. When you don't give your players live game reps, they lose the rhythm they've developed over the season. When you accept losing, it becomes hard to win. How do you look at professional players and tell them losing doesn't matter? This year's Colts are a great team, and they deserve better than cowardly coaching or GM interference. You read it here first: Indianapolis will lose its first playoff game.

4. Green Bay Packers [10] — Six wins in the last seven games. This is a much better team than it was at the beginning of the season. The offensive line has solidified, Aaron Rodgers is taking fewer sacks, the running game has gotten going, and the defensive personnel has adjusted to the 3-4. Green Bay ranks among the top five in yards gained and yards allowed.

5. Dallas Cowboys [6] — Clinched a playoff spot, but everyone will be watching their Week 17 tilt with Philadelphia — winner takes the NFC East — for signs of the infamous end-of-season letdown. Wade Phillips' job may be safest if Dallas loses and gets a first-round game against Minnesota. It seems ludicrous to the rest of the world that a coach would be fired after going 33-15, but if the Cowboys don't win a playoff game, he'll be in serious jeopardy. Dallas probably isn't balanced or consistent enough to make a Super Bowl run, but should scare everyone else in the NFC playoff picture.

6. Arizona Cardinals [8] — Nothing generates momentum like a home game against the Rams. The Cardinals have an intriguing matchup, and possible playoff preview, when they host the Packers in Week 17. Anquan Boldin can reach 1,000 yards for the fifth time in his career with just 14 in the final game. Steve Breaston can secure his second 1,000-yard season if he gains 304.

7. Tennessee Titans [4] — Earlier this season, I compared Chris Johnson to Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett. That's a natural comparison because of their speed, but I think now that it was the wrong one. The player Johnson really looks like is O.J. Simpson. He's that good. Johnson's speed, cutting ability, and field vision all remind me of O.J. Not only is he the fastest guy on the field, he always seems to be a step ahead of the defenders, reacting before they've even made their moves. It should go without saying that I mean this as a strictly on-field comparison.

8. Baltimore Ravens [7] — They'll still make the playoffs with a win in Week 17, but the loss this weekend has to sting. Baltimore leads the NFL in penalty yards, and that cost the team two touchdowns on Sunday. Those two drives, instead of generating 14 points, resulted in a total of three: a field goal and a punt. Haloti Ngata is a gifted defensive lineman, but he's got to be the most undisciplined player in the league. It seems like Ngata draws a 15-yard penalty every three weeks or so. The Ravens will need Ed Reed healthy if they're going to make a serious postseason run.

9. New England Patriots [12] — Wes Welker has 122 catches this season. With two more in Week 17, he'll move into second place on the all-time single-season list. Welker missed two games this season with an injury and has actually averaged more receptions per game than Marvin Harrison did in his record-setting 2002 campaign. The Patriots finished 8-0 at home this season.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers [20] — Only 48 rushing yards in the win. LaMarr Woodley, who had two sacks and a forced fumble this weekend, has been playing at a high level. The Steelers' postseason dream is still alive, but they'll need to get some help from other teams and win in Miami. Pittsburgh is 2-5 on the road this season.

11. Houston Texans [19] — Crucial win kept their slim playoff hopes alive, and the team is poised for its first winning season in franchise history. Barring a loss of 48 points or more, this will also be the first Texans team to score more points than it allows. Rookie LB Brian Cushing, listed as questionable before the game, made 9 solo tackles, a sack, and an interception. In a year with stiff competition, Cushing is still the front-runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

12. Carolina Panthers [18] — Consecutive blowouts over teams with winning records. Matt Moore looks great — I'm impressed with his accuracy downfield. Steve Smith, who left the game with a broken arm, was exceptional against the Giants. Jonathan Stewart has come into his own during DeAngelo Williams' absence, breaking 1,000 yards for the first time. If this team is healthy next season, it could be among the favorites in the NFC.

13. Miami Dolphins [11] — Down 27-0, Miami rallied for a respectable 27-20 finish. Ricky Williams left this week's game with a shoulder injury, but it doesn't sound serious, and for now we expect Williams to play in the regular season finale. The team is not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but its chances are slim. The Dolphins are one of five teams penalized for under 600 yards this season.

14. Denver Broncos [13] — Three straight losses, and they're 2-7 since the bye. That includes two games dropped against opponents with losing records, but the Broncos beat Kansas City 44-13 in their previous meeting and have to be favored in Week 17. Denver will be rooting for Baltimore and Pittsburgh, against whom it has head-to-head defeats, to lose. The Broncos also would like to see the Jets lose, but Houston win. The Texans don't have any tiebreakers over Denver, but if they're part of the tiebreaker process, head-to-head drops out and the Broncos can edge ahead of Pittsburgh.

15. New Orleans Saints [3] — Defense wins championships, the saying goes. New Orleans ranks 24th in yards allowed. The offense isn't playing well enough to cover that up any more. After scoring more than 20 points in every game and averaging 35.8, the Saints have put up just 17 in consecutive weeks. This team is playing its worst football of the season and looks a little worse every week.

16. Minnesota Vikings [9] — Missed Pat Williams on Monday night and got another ugly game from their defense. Their special teams coverage was horrible. Gruden pointed out that Minnesota has not played well on the road recently. In fact, they're 4-4 away, compared to a perfect 7-0 at home. Three of those four losses have come in December. It doesn't get particularly cold in Arizona or Carolina, so I don't know how much of this we can attribute to a dome team playing in winter weather, but this could have major ramifications if the Vikings have to go to Philadelphia this postseason.

17. New York Giants [14] — Ugly letdown following their shellacking of Washington. Turnovers continue to be an issue (-4 against Carolina), and the defense is vulnerable to big plays. Only Tennessee, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit have allowed more points than the Giants this season (383). Troy Aikman criticized Steve Smith in the third quarter for not getting out of bounds to stop the clock, saying that players have to be aware of the situation they're in. But in the third quarter, getting out of bounds doesn't stop the clock. Aikman, ironically, wasn't aware of the situation. Oops.

18. Cincinnati Bengals [15] — Eked out a win over the 3-12 Chiefs. When was the last time Cincinnati really looked like a contender? In the last month, the Bengals have barely beaten three terrible teams, and lost to two good ones. That doesn't even include their loss to the Raiders. Sure, the Bengals are a good defensive team. They don't score enough to keep up with quality opponents. Domata Peko may be back for the playoffs, and that would give them a boost.

19. Atlanta Falcons [22] — Sort of a weird win over the hapless Bills. Defensive end Kroy Biermann did a nice job with kickoffs after injuries to Matt Bryant and Michael Koenen. If the Falcons can get past Tampa Bay in Week 17, they'll secure the first back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history.

20. New York Jets [23] — Beat a team who wasn't trying to win. When they avoid turnovers, the Jets' defense can keep them in the game with anyone, but this team absolutely cannot throw the ball. It ranks 30th in passing yards and 28th in passer rating. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is an outright liability. In the win this weekend, the Jets gained more than twice as much yardage on the ground (204) as passing (91).

21. San Francisco 49ers [21] — Fine, they beat the Lions and it wasn't close. This was not an impressive victory. The Niners gave up more first downs than they gained and only converted 29% of their 3rd down attempts. Reserve LB Ahmad Brooks has five sacks and five forced fumbles in the last four games.

22. Cleveland Browns [24] — Don't trust their QBs (which is reasonable), so Jerome Harrison carried the ball 39 times on Sunday (which is unreasonable). That's the most carries for any back since Shaun Alexander had 40 more than three years ago. The Browns are tied for the third-longest winning streak in the league. Seriously. They remain last in the NFL in both yards gained and yards allowed.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [29] — Two straight wins after a 1-12 start. Cadillac Williams this week posted his first 100-yard game since November of 2006. Whatever this team's weaknesses, I think we can all agree that it has one of the best return units in the NFL. No matter who the Bucs put back there, he breaks a couple long ones.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Three weeks ago, they had played one of the softest schedules in the league and were sitting pretty at 7-5. Since then, they've played three real teams (combined 31-14) and dropped below .500. The defense got massacred by Tom Brady this week. Jacksonville has allowed opposing passers a collective rating of 97.0 this season, 2nd-worst in the NFL (Detroit, 105.9).

25. Chicago Bears [28] — Injuries facilitated some second-half defensive breakdowns, but they played a really good game. Even Ron Turner, the oft-criticized offensive coordinator, deserves some credit in this one. Jay Cutler looked great, with one dumb decision offset by several nice downfield throws. The offensive line gave him plenty of time, the defense made great stops in the first half and a big play in overtime, and Chicago's special teams were absolutely the difference in the game. Special Teams Coordinator Dave Toub gets my game ball.

26. Washington Redskins [16] — I've criticized Jason Campbell as much as anybody, but he's in a hopeless situation right now. No one can play effectively when he's getting hit before he's had time to make a read. If this franchise — Raiders East, I like to call it — wasn't already so laughable, it would be really embarrassing that Albert Haynesworth played this week. Washington fans, what makes you think Bruce Allen will do anything Vinny Cerrato didn't?

27. Oakland Raiders [25] — They've used three starting quarterbacks this year, with a combined passer rating of 59.8. The Raiders haven't put together a winning or losing streak since their Week 9 bye in early November. Neither have their neighbors the 49ers. That's weird.

28. Buffalo Bills [26] — Don't blame this on third-string QB Brian Brohm. The offense sucked before he got here.

29. Seattle Seahawks [27] — In the last three weeks, Seattle has gotten embarrassed by the Packers (48-10), lost decisively to lowly Tampa Bay (24-7), and been routed by Houston (34-7). The Seahawks are one of seven teams outscored by over 100 points this season. The others: Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, and St. Louis.

30. Detroit Lions [30] — At the beginning of the season, at least the offense was halfway decent. It's not any more. Detroit has lost four of its last five games by double-digits.

31. Kansas City Chiefs [32] — Can we stop basing our assessment of quarterbacks on their team's results? We bash great players like Dan Marino who carried weak teams but never won a championship, while praising mediocre passers like Eli Manning who had great teammates, and unduly celebrating genuinely great players like Tom Brady who happen to also have lots of help. Matt Cassel looked great in New England last year, throwing to Randy Moss and Welker behind a top-notch offensive line. Playing with Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers behind a poor line, he has a passer rating of 70.1, lower than Matt Hasselbeck, Jay Cutler, and Marc Bulger. No player has more effect on his team's fortunes than the QB, but he can't do it alone.

32. St. Louis Rams [31] — All season, this column has been tracking the Rams' pursuit of a historically awful season. They're 1-14, which is a good start, though a home game against San Francisco in the final week is not a guaranteed loss. St. Louis has been outscored by 239 points this season and has a real chance to be even worse in this category than last year's winless Lions (-249). It's hard to know how to even begin fixing this team.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:51 AM | Comments (3)

When Madness Goes Insane

In just a few days, we'll be entering a brave new decade. Over the next 10 years, advancements in technology and science will probably blow us all out of the water. Sports has the capability of doing the same thing.

Will the NFL or NBA ultimately expand overseas?

How shiny and sparkly will the newer stadiums become?

Will leagues like the MLS, AFL (now turning into AF1), and WNBA finally catch on to a sustainable audience?

And what new league will pop up to become the next would-be challenger?

While some of these inquiries are have been discussed since back in the late-'90s, one idea has barely moved a muscle for the last 25 years. The NCAA men's basketball tournament jumped from 53 invitations to 64 in 1985. Except for a minute addition of a 65th bid in 2001, everything's stayed pat.

Now comes word that talks are ramping up to expand the tournament again. It's inevitable, really. Benchmarks for number of teams worthy to battle for the championship have risen since 1951, when the tourney doubled from eight to 16 squads. Now, after a quarter-century with the same basic structure, it may be time to give more teams the opportunity to realize their "one shining moment."

As with most sports issues, there are embracers of (like the Wall Street Journal's Darren Everson) and opponents to (like Rock Hill (SC) Herald's Gary McCann) this possibility. And while the presence of more early-round games is enticing, I'm one of those people on the skeptical side of the fence when it comes to expanding the tournament.

I'm not going to sit here and say that these brackets are the perfect structure and situation to decide a national champion year in and year out. But, to me, the way that qualifying is set up for the tourney currently makes this extremely productive. The drama and tension of the first two days of the event usually match any moment throughout the sporting year. Will that be taken away by adding another night or week of tournament play? Maybe not. However, there could be some other problems that might creep up during the process.

The main issue, in my mind, is with how these bids will be distributed. Over the last few years (keep in mind, I've only been following this thing since 1990), it seems the NCAA's selection committee has been more receptive toward rewarding programs outside the nation's six Super Conferences. From George Mason to Wichita State, Butler to Gonzaga, the tournament is recognizing pumped up schedules, big-time victories, and tougher league competition.

All that said, if the tournament did expand, would they favor giving those spots to the mids and littles (i.e. Illinois State, Saint Mary's, Niagara)* of the sport, or would the lesser powers (i.e. Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Nebraska)* continue to pump the profiles of the big boys? It'd be nice to see teams from conferences like the Metro Atlantic, Horizon, and Big Sky get the chance to prove that multiple teams can be tournament-ready. But if you don't bring name recognition and potential fan base into consideration, you've lost a gasket. I definitely believe that the higher-ups in Indianapolis would prefer South Carolina to South Alabama, Penn State to Portland State, and Boston College to College of Charleston.

Another point that irks me a bit is how some people in the know are looking at this. An article from the Salisbury (NC) Post stated the N.C. State head coach Sidney Lowe talked about how football teams can qualify for bowl games by being .500. The problem with that argument ... who's interested in all of these lesser bowl games? I think I caught more of Duke's pasting of Gonzaga last weekend than I did last night's Music City Bowl.

Unless you have a rooting interest (be it team or monetarily related), are you honestly going to pay attention to all of the 30-some-odd games being played through next Friday? My guess would be no. And that's what might happen with some of those matchups if the tournament would expand. If you've regularly read my scattered thoughts, then you know my opinions of the CBI and CIT tournaments. Although it wouldn't be probable, might an at-large spot or two go to below .500 teams with 8-8 conference records?

Could this whole idea work? According to Duke's head coach Mike Krzyzewski, of course, but there need to be some tweaks. (Wait a second ... I'm agreeing with a Dukie?! My head must be screwed on wrong today.)

Regular Season Qualifying

One of the reasons I enjoy the structure of the Postseason NIT is that they automatically invite any regular season conference champion that doesn't make it into the NCAAs. If the tournament is going to expand, it must include every conference champion. This would assure that your body of work would mean something throughout the campaign.

End of Season Qualifying

So what happens to the conference tournaments? Don't worry, they'll stick around, too. Each top seed (who by this time has automatically gained entrance to the Big Dance) will get an automatic berth into the final. The rest of the conference foes must play out a tournament to see who gets a shot at number one.

This can work on several levels. For the smaller conferences, it's an opportunity to get a second bid. For the mid and power leagues, it's a proving ground to gain more quality victories and enhance your profile. For the conference champs, it's a way to prove or raise your seed in the tournament.

At-Large Qualifying

After the conference tournaments (the Ivy League can still go by regular season champ only), the minimum number of at-large spots available to a 96-team field would equal 29. As it stands right now, there are 31 maximum at-large entries for the 2010 edition of March Madness. So even at its minimum, this alternative would offer plenty of slots to fill heading into the postseason.

Now, you figure that this expansion would pretty much eliminate the Postseason NIT, which won't be that big of a problem since the NCAA now runs the tourney. But could they really leave the tradition of balling on the world's most famous basketball stage in late March? And if not, would any championship really be contested between a fourth-place MAC team and an eighth-place Pac-10 squad?

There's no easy answer to all of these questions. That's probably why the tournament exists. Just like the (humph-humph) BCS, it'll always keep you guessing.

*All participants took part in the 2009 Postseason NIT.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:01 AM | Comments (3)

December 28, 2009

NBA Grinches Ruin Christmas

Christmas has always been a holiday that has been owned by the NBA. The NFL has Thanksgiving and Super Bowl Sunday (I don't care what the calendar says, Super Bowl Sunday is a holiday), college football has New Year's Day, and the MLB has the Fourth of July.

With meaningful college football on hiatus till after the New Year, the NFL season in a lull before the playoffs, and the baseball hot stove cooling significantly after the winter meetings, the NBA uses Christmas-time to establish its relevance in the sporting world once again.

Christmas Day kicks off the start of the NBA on ABC, and it always features at least one marquee matchup. The NBA Cares program was in full effect during this week, doing great things throughout the community.

This was the NBA's opportunity to thrust itself into the headlines and stay there until June.

And, of course, there were a few Grinches out there that ruined it for everyone.

After an NBA season that saw only one major off-the-court issue in the first two months (Allen Iverson), the week of Christmas supplied plenty of drama and negative publicity for the NBA.

Kobe vs. LeBron on Christmas Day should have been the story of the week in the NBA, but instead, here's a list of the Grinches that stole the Christmas Headlines in the NBA:

Houston Rockets/Tracy McGrady

This had all the potential to be a feel-good story somewhere on par with "It's a Wonderful Life." Instead, it's turned into "The Nightmare Before Christmas" for all parties involved.

Tracy McGrady, fan-favorite turned scapegoat turned fan-favorite again, worked his tail off this offseason to get back into shape after undergoing the always frightening microfracture surgery last season.

Then, almost negating all the work McGrady put into his rehab, the Rockets kept delaying his return to action, a move in which some people speculated was financially driven (all NBA players are insured; once McGrady missed 41 consecutive games, the insurance would cover 80% of his salary until he was healthy enough to play again).

McGrady was finally activated on December 15th, playing between 7 and 8 first-half minutes for six straight games.

After asking coach Rick Adelman to increase his role, the Rockets sent McGrady home before their game on Saturday against the Nets, and it's unclear if or when he'll play for the Rockets again.

With no concrete trade offers on the table for the league's highest paid player (and, more importantly heading into the summer of 2010, the league's biggest expiring contract), it looks like it could be a long time before we see Tracy McGrady back on the floor.

Well, at least until he starts the All-Star Game.

Nate Robinson

Robinson has received a DNP-CD in each of the Knicks' last 12 games. Earlier this week Robinson, his agent, and Donnie Walsh met to discuss Nate's future, the results of which gave me my biggest laugh of the holiday season.

Apparently, Kypton-Nate has asked for a trade, and since he has Bird Rights, he can veto any trade proposal. He made short list of teams that he would accept a trade to: Boston, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Orlando, and Cleveland.

Let that sink in for a second.

A 5'9" malcontent, with a shoot-first mentality, limited defensive abilities, and the inability to even crack the rotation on an 11-19 team is demanding a trade to one of the top six teams in the NBA.

The Knicks are better without Robinson (7-5) than they were with him (4-13). Does he seriously think that contending teams are going to be chomping at the bit to break their team up to acquire him?

Sure, the asking price probably won't be all that high for Robinson, but is it even worth the risk? How many of those contending teams are thinking, "We're good right now, but think how unstoppable we'd be if we just had Nate Robinson."

The only team that it even remotely makes sense for is Orlando, but Jameer Nelson is currently between injuries, and they won't consider it until Nelson gets hurt again.

For the foreseeable future, Spike Lee won't be the only diminutive celebrity sulking courtside at the Garden.

Los Angeles Laker Fans

This one hurts. I'm a Laker fan, and even I don't get Laker fans sometimes. Okay, we get it: the Lakers played terribly on against LeBron and the Cavs. I was upset by their performance, too.

But what in the hell were Laker fans thinking on Christmas Day?

It was embarrassing enough that some people (and more than just a few from what it sounded like on TV) had the balls to actually "BOO!" a team that was 23-4 at the time.

But then the Laker Fans took their classlessness to another level by throwing foam fingers onto the court.

This would have never happened if Jack Nicholson was in the building.

Stan Van Gundy

Van Gundy probably won't be getting any Christmas Cards from the office of David Stern next season after his comments about Christmas Day games.

Said Van Gundy: "I actually feel sorry for people who have nothing to do on Christmas Day other than watch an NBA game."

He later added: "But if I had my way, we'd take a five-day break at Christmas. I mean it."

Apparently, Van Gundy didn't have time to read my first three paragraphs about how important Christmas is to the NBA.

There are worse things than making the NBA Finals and being rewarded with a time slot the following Christmas that not only increases your teams popularity but also its income.

Van Gundy was probably speaking out of frustration because he didn't get a chance to spend Christmas with his family, which is understandable.

But the fact is, Van Gundy is the head coach of one of the best teams in the league that features one of the most popular and marketable players in the NBA. If he didn't want national exposure, he could have always taken the Bucks job.

I guess, in basketball as in life, you have to take the good with the bad, but I think Van Gundy is one of the few people in the Orlando organization that thinks that playing as part of a double-header on ABC on Christmas Day falls into the "bad" category.

Chicago Bulls

You would think that all of the Bulls' coaches come from Hooville with the way the front office has a tendency to steal Christmas from them.

In 2007, Scott Skiles was fired on Christmas Eve after the Bulls fell to 9-16 on the season.

Now it appears as if Vinny Del Negro is the latest Chicago coach to have a Blue Christmas. Reports say that Del Negro will be fired soon, possibly as early as today, and it's just a matter of finding the next head coach.

Reports also indicate that former Bulls coach Doug Collins was contacted about the job, but he has no interest (great news for TNT and NBA fans everywhere, since Collins is the best color commentator in the history of the world).

If we're being honest here, Del Negro should have been fired on Monday when the Bulls blew a 35-point second half lead to the Kings at home. He should have just cleaned out his locker after his postgame press conference and went home at that point.

The reality is, the Bulls front office probably waited until now to make the move just so they wouldn't have to fire a coach on Christmas for the second time in three years.

And if that doesn't restore your faith in the Christmas Spirit, nothing will.

Have a safe and happy New Year. See you in 2010.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:55 AM | Comments (0)

Kings, Coyotes Show They're For Real

The end of December typically marks a turning point between the haves and have-nots in the NHL. It's not an official marker by any stretch, but it's been a reliable rough point-of-no-return for teams that can remain in playoff contention and for those that can start looking at the draft lottery. For fans of the Los Angeles Kings and the Phoenix Coyotes, it's also a time to breath a sigh of relief: your teams are for real.

It's always possible to undergo an epic fall — such as what the Coyotes did last season when they slipped from fifth at the All-Star Break to all the way out of the playoffs. However, that calls for an extraordinary implosion, one that typically doesn't happen.

So assuming it's safe to say that the Coyotes and Kings will be involved in the Western Conference playoff race — and perhaps the hunt for the Pacific Division crown — let's take a look at how they got here.

In the entire Western Conference, the team with the best goals-against average is Phoenix. The only team that can match it in the entire NHL is Buffalo. It's no surprise, then, that Buffalo's Ryan Miller — the leading Vezina candidate at the end of 2009 — has very similar statistics to Phoenix's Ilya Bryzgalov. The difference is that Miller's team faces on average about 30 shots-against a game. The Coyotes? Under Dave Tippett's defensive system, Phoenix deals with about 27 shots-against per game.

This is significant because the Coyotes have no forward that even comes close to a point-per-game. Instead, the team's top-five scorers (Shane Doan, Matthew Lombardi, Radim Vrbata, Scottie Upshall, and Robert Lang) are all within five points of each other at the 0.5 to 0.6 points-per-game range. Usually, you'd expect teams with a dynamite goalie and a weak offense to be struggling around .500 for most of the season, but the Coyotes are well over .500, even if you factor in overtime/shootout losses into their record.

In short, while Ilya Bryzgalov has been stellar, the Coyotes are winning because of an absolute commitment to their system. Their true star is their coach and his ability to get a complete buy-in from his players.

In the same division, the Los Angeles Kings boast a similar record to the Coyotes, and even overtook division powerhouse San Jose for a few days. However, the L.A.'s overall goal differential is just barely positive, and their goals-against is very middle-of-the-road compared to the league. How are the Kings winning?

During the first two months of the season, L.A. was powered by a dynamic first line featuring Anze Kopitar and Ryan Smyth. When Smyth went down with an injury in mid-November, Kopitar's production significantly dropped. With Smyth back in the lineup, the Kings have to face another significant forward injury as Justin Williams suffered a broken leg on the night of Smyth's return.

Unlike the Coyotes, the Kings have a significant amount of scoring depth spread out, including point-per-game players (Kopitar, Smyth), effective second liners (Dustin Brown, Alex Frolov), and offensive-threat defensemen (Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson). Their true weakness, then, looks to be goaltending. While the Kings tend to give up slightly more shots-against per game than the Coyotes, the difference is really negligible. However, starter Jonathan Quick has far worse stats than Ilya Bryzgalov; in fact, Quick has no shutouts in 30+ starts while Bryzgalov has already notched five.

Which of these Pacific Division surprises will hold through come playoff time? Each has a critical enough weakness (Phoenix's scoring, L.A.'s goaltending) that it could hamper them come the stretch run. Of course, they've withstood the first test by overcoming first-month flash-in-the-pan status; the trick is then for coaches Dave Tippett and Terry Murray to recognize these shortcomings and build towards something so that they're still playing in April.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:36 AM | Comments (0)

December 24, 2009

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 16

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

San Diego @ Tennessee (-3)

At 11-3, the Chargers have locked up the AFC West, and a Christmas night win in Tennessee would give them the number two seed and a first-round bye for the playoffs. San Diego has won nine in a row, while the Titans have won seven of eight after starting the season 0-6.

"Like the Titans," says Philip Rivers, "we're not the same team we were earlier this year. The Titans' turnaround started when Jeff Fisher put on a shirt; ours started when we lost ours against the Broncos."

"The last time we saw the Titans, it was a wild card playoff game in 2008, and Vince Young was the starter. This time, it's me and Vince Young again, and although it's not officially a playoff game, it is unofficially for the Titans. It's funny how things come full circle. And a 'full circle' makes a 'zero;' it's even funnier how things come even more full circle on the subject of Young's Wonderlic score."

At 7-7, the Titans will need two wins to close the season, in addition to timely losses by contenders ahead of them.

"As nine straight wins would attest," says Jeff Fisher, "the Chargers will be a tough team to beat. We'll need all the Christmas spirit we can muster. I know I can count on it from my offensive lineman Dave Stewart, whose Christmas cards were adorned with a 'Music City Miracle on 34th Street' theme. And I'm sure Kerry Collins has it in him, although there was a time when the words '7 and 7' and 'Christmas spirit' would often result in Kerry passed out under the Christmas tree."

Early in the week, Fisher creates a stir when he shows up at a fundraiser wearing a No. 17 Rivers jersey, and nothing else. Surprisingly, he still takes less grief for that than he did for wearing a Peyton Manning jersey. And prior to the game, Titans owner Bud Adams substitutes "middle fingers" for 'turtle doves' in the "12 Days of Christmas Song," raising the ire of Rivers. Rivers denounces "Smash and Dash" and proclaims himself "Brash and Dash" before leading the Chargers onto LP Field.

Rivers throws for 245 yards, and Antonio Gates takes advantage of a depleted Tennessee linebacking group and grabs 7 catches for 102 yards and a score.

Chargers win, 24-20.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-14½)

The Saints run at perfection ended last Saturday, done in by an inspired Dallas team that exploited weakness in New Orleans rush defense. But with the pressure of an undefeated season behind them, the Saints can now concentrate on securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. A win over the Buccaneers, or a Vikings loss in Chicago, would give New Orleans the top spot.

"In the 'Big Easy,'" says Sean Payton, "success is often defined by the size of one's hooters. But don't think just because we got the burden of an undefeated season 'off of our chest' that this year is a failure. We've got a 'bead' on the number one seed, and we plan on clinching on Sunday. Or bust."

"The loss to the Cowboys opened our eyes a bit, and was a not-to-subtle warning that we've got work to do. I was appalled at our run defense, and we didn't react quickly at all. Shoot, I've seen FEMA respond faster to emergency situations. You know the 'Boys have had their way with you when the headlines in the Dallas paper read 'Bye, You on the Bayou.'"

It's time for the Saints to recapture their momentum before their playoff bye, so you could say their in the 'recovery mission-ary position,' and a win over the Bucs will put them on top of the NFC standings.

Saints win, 24-17.

Houston @ Miami (-3)

The Texans and Dolphins are two of the six 7-7 teams in the AFC, and the playoff forecast indicates that an 8-8 record likely won't be good enough for a playoff berth. That makes the Houston-Miami contest a virtual elimination game, with the loser falling out of the playoff picture.

"Albeit slim," says Matt Schaub, "there's still hope for a playoff berth. We realize we're the longest of the long shots in the wildcard race. You could say we're 'hung.' And the odds are a lot like AFC South division teams — we can't beat 'em."

Miami saw their own playoff hopes take a big hit after a late comeback fell just short in a 27-24 overtime loss to the Titans. A win over the Texans is absolutely imperative if the 'Fins are to enter Week 17 with a shot at the postseason.

"As you know," says Ricky Williams, "I'm a former Texan. Not a Houston Texan. Oh no, I would never admit that. I matriculated at the University of Texas, where I majored in international studies, with a minor in 'inhalation' studies, a course of study that rendered it necessary to travel to the corners of the earth in search of the meaning of life. After much thought, self-reflection, meditation, and hacky-sack, I realized that the 'meaning of life' is best experienced on the football field making millions of dollars."

Miami wins, 30-23.

Seattle @ Green Bay (-13½)

Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck has had very little success in Green Bay. He's lost there twice in the playoffs, including a loss after the infamous "we'll take the ball and we're going to score" vow after winning the overtime coin toss in a 2003 playoff game. Hasselbeck will lead the 5-9 Seahawks into Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the 9-5 Packers, who are still fighting for a playoff spot.

"Hey, give me some credit," says Hasselbeck. "I did call the coin toss correctly, and I also put Al Harris on the map. And I'm somewhat of a celebrity here in Green Bay. I can't tell you how many Packers fans request my autograph. They always ridicule my handwriting, though, with many commenting that 'they can't make heads or tails' of my signature."

Despite a 37-36 loss to the Steelers last week, Green Bay remained in the fifth spot in the NFC playoff race. The Packers gave up 503 yards passing to Ben Roethlisberger, a development that would not seem to bode well should the Packers face the Cardinals in the wild card round, a matchup that would take place should current seeds hold.

"It's way too early to start looking ahead to a potential matchup with the Cardinals," says Aaron Rodgers. "There are far more important things to consider, like, for example, what was defensive end Johnny Jolly doing with 200 grams of codeine? I guess this explains why he was considered a 'sleeper' in the draft. Did he distribute this stuff to our defensive backs in Pittsburgh, because they sure looked 'asleep' on Sunday?"

With their breakdowns in coverage corrected, Charles Woodson and the Packers defensive backfield arrive at Lambeau confident. Woodson correctly calls "tails" at the coin flip, and boastfully proclaims to Hasselbeck, "We'll give you the ball, and I'm going to score." Four plays later, Woodson snatches an errant Hasselbeck throw and returns it 45 yards for a touchdown.

Rodgers throws for 301 yards and 3 scores and the Packers roll, 30-13.

Carolina @ NY Giants (-3)

The Panthers shocked the Vikings 26-7 last week in Charlotte, Carolina's sixth win of the year and one that may have officially heralded Matt Moore as the future quarterback of the franchise. Moore threw for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns against Minnesota, and he has shown the ability to make the big play while avoiding crucial turnovers.

"He's got my vote," says Steve Smith. "Rearrange the letters in 'vote,' and you get 'veto,' which is exactly what I'll do should John Fox try to reinstate Jake Delhomme as the starter. Matt is this team's future 'in the flesh'; Jake is at his best 'in street clothes.'"

The Giants, with their playoff hopes reeling, rebounding with a resounding 45-12 win over Washington, a beating of the Redskins so thorough that casinos were left in the wake.

"I'm sure Sherman Lewis felt right at home," says Tom Coughlin, "because usually, where there's a casino, there's Bingo. Out offense was so potent on Monday night that I believe I said 'Bingo' more times that Sherm is used to hearing at his hometown Bingo hall."

"We finally played Giants football. We established the run early, and our receivers showed firepower instead of hiding it in their pants."

Giants win, 27-21.

Oakland @ Cleveland (-3)

After weeks of speculation, the Browns hired Mike Holmgren as team president, just in time to overshadow Josh Cribb's NFL record eighth kickoff return touchdown, as well as James Harrison's franchise-record 286 yards rushing, both marks of which were set in last week's 41-34 win over the Chiefs.

"There's a jolly, round, and rosy-cheeked fellow coming to Cleveland," says Holmgren, "and it ain't Santa Claus. And speaking of 'rosy cheeks,' there's likely to be a lot of chapped asses when I get done making changes around here. My first order of business as president will be determining the future of Eric Mangini. You could say I'm likely to set a dead 'precedent.' Now, I understand Browns great Jim Brown has weighed in with support for Mangini, saying he should be given at least one more year. Brown is arguably the game's greatest player, and I'm certainly inclined to at least listen to advice from anyone who starred in the movie I'm Gonna Git You, Sucka."

The Raiders are only 5-9, but many of their wins have had far-reaching playoff implications for their victims. After damaging the Steelers hopes with a win in Pittsburgh in Week 13, Oakland stunned the Broncos in Denver 20-19, as JaMarcus Russell came off the bench to throw the game-winning touchdown pass.

"Obviously, we've won some big games," says Tom Cable, "and we've lost big in some games. We either 'wreak havoc,' or we're 'reek havoc.'"

"As for JaMarcus, he showed a lot of heart on Sunday. Having to enter the game in such a hurry is a testament to JaMarcus' preparatory habits. I know he wasn't ready. Heck, I think he only had one of his diamond-studded earrings in at the time. I think it's clear that he's a better quarterback when pressed in to action. He got out there with virtually no warm-up. Usually, he's out there with 'no clue.'"

With Brady Quinn out for the season with a foot injury, Derek Anderson will take over at quarterback. And Charlie Frye is starting for the Raiders. So what we have is a Derek Anderson versus Charlie Frye matchup. Did anybody ask for this for Christmas?

Raiders win, 23-16.

Jacksonville @ New England (-9)

With a 17-10 over Buffalo, combined with losses by both the Dolphins and Jets, the Patriots have a two-game lead over Miami and New York in the AFC East, and a win over Jacksonville would clinch the division. Randy Moss, whose effort was questioned two weeks ago against Carolina, rebounded with 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown.

"Let's face it," says Tom Brady. "Randy's been caught in the 'act' before, and his game against the Panthers was no exception. As anyone who's thrown balls to Randy can attest, it's often a 'trying' experience. But, to Randy's credit, he really came out against the Bills with an attitude. You could say Randy vowed to 'Try Hard With a Vengeance.'"

With losses in their last two games, the Jaguars no longer control their own destiny, which was the case before their losing streak. Now, the Jags need to win their remaining two games and hope that the teams above them in the wild card race, Baltimore and Denver, falter down the stretch.

"Normally, I hate 'stretch' marks," says Jack Del Rio, "but not on Ravens or Broncos. And, we all know you can't 'berth' without stretch marks."

"The key to this game will be defending Moss. We'll certainly try to emulate what the Panthers did and get physical with Moss, incorporating contact at the line to discourage a pristine route. Randy might not shy away from contact 'highs,' but he definitely shies away from contact. Heck, everyone agrees he's a bad mother 'ducker.'"

Hey, we should all give Randy a hand. That would help ease the burden of carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders. Let's face it. Randy's becoming a better, more well-rounded person. Hell, he compared himself to Atlas. He probably doesn't realize it, but he just made the only reference to Greek mythology of his life.

"Hey, does watching the Poseidon Adventure count?" asks Moss.

New England wins, 24-17. Moss catches 6 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown, then slaps "five" with former coach and Jacksonville assistant Mike Tice, who slips Moss two Super Bowl tickets, which is probably the only way he'll get there this year.

Kansas City @ Cincinnati (-13½)

The Bengals have dropped two in a row, and while their hold on the AFC North is still strong, their playoff seeding continues to slide. At 9-3, the Bengals looked solid for a number two seed. Now, at 9-5, they're locked in a battle with the 9-5 Bengals for the AFC's three-seed.

"Honestly," says Marvin Lewis, "the three- and four-seeds are practically interchangeable, unless you know who the five- and six-seeds are. Heck, before it's all said and done, we might be the five- or six-seed."

After upsetting the Steelers in Week 11, the Chiefs have lost four in a row, and have given up an average of 36 points in those four losses. Against the Bengals, they'll face former teammate Larry Johnson, who was cut by the Chiefs and signed by Cincy soon thereafter.

"Hey, I've got nothing but good things to say about Larry," says Todd Haley. "Like 'good' bye, 'good' riddance, and have fun chatting with Roger 'Good'-ell one day. Larry was our resident 'hate male.' Now he's the Bengals problem, which makes him our problem again, at least on Sunday."

Cedric Benson rushes for 111 yards, and the Bengals let Johnson punch a touchdown run in from the one-yard line, just for spite.

Cincinnati wins, 27-10.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-1)

The Ravens and Steelers are two of the NFL's biggest rivals, and the hatred runs deep when these two AFC North powers hit the field. Throw in monumental playoff implications, and this has the makings of a classic on par with last year's game in Baltimore, won by the Steelers, 13-9. Right now, Baltimore holds the number five seed, while the 7-7 Steelers are battling to find their way into the postseason.

"It's important to know your enemy," says Ed Reed. "That's why film study is so important in regards to the Steelers. You may find that you don't know an opponent quite like you thought you did. I just found out that The Blind Side is not, in fact, the story of Hines Ward. It's actually about my teammate, Michael Oher, who surprisingly is very humble for a kid who shacked up with Sandra Bullock as a teenager."

The Steelers pulled out an improbable 37-36 win over the Packers last Sunday, winning on Ben Roethlisberger's 19-yard touchdown pass to Mike Wallace as time expired.

"That's called pulling one out of your 'Wall-ace,'" says Roethlisberger, tongue in cheek. "But I've got to give a lot of credit to our defense. They saved the day after Mike Tomlin's decision to go for the onside kick, which made me want to go 'upside' his head. Mike's got a way of making stupid decisions sound like the right decisions, even after they fail. Remember the failed two-point conversion against Jacksonville? That smooth talking may explain how he got this job in the first place. Anyway, if not for our defense allowing the Packers to score in timely fashion after that bonehead call, I never would have had the chance for heroics. Thanks, Coach. You make me look good. I make you look less stupid."

Steelers win, 30-27.

Buffalo @ Atlanta (-9)

Matt Ryan returned as starter for the Falcons last Sunday, and led Atlanta to a dramatic 10-7 win over the Jets in the Meadowlands, finding Tony Gonzalez for the game-winning score. The Falcons are 7-7, but have been eliminated from the playoff race.

"That definitely makes motivation hard to come by," says Ryan. "Luckily, we can all follow the lead of defensive lineman Jonathan Babineaux, who displayed the necessary 'drive' when he was busted with marijuana after being stopped for a traffic violation. I'm not sure he was sippin' on gin and juice, but he was rolling down the street smoking endo. The dummy also was driving without a license. He won't be driving, but after he meets with Roger Goodell, he'll be 'riding' — the pine."

With Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick out with ankle injuries, the Bills will turn to Brian Brohm at quarterback.

"Buffalo quarterbacks have been dropping like flies," says Terrell Owens, "or more like passes to me. With so many injuries at the QB position, the passing game has suffered. I think we have at least two defensive backs with more receptions than me. Hopefully, Brohm can hang in there, but I've got a feeling he'll be making an early exit. After all, he played for Bobby Petrino at Louisville, so, like his coach, he could be out of here with barely a moments' notice."

Falcons win, 24-21.

St. Louis @ Arizona (-14)

By virtue of their 31-24 win over the Lions and the 49ers' loss to the Eagles, the Cardinals clinched the NFC West division crown, and it looks like they'll have the number four seed when the playoff seeds are set. It would be the same position the Cards were in last year when they took the four seed all the way to the Super Bowl.

"We have the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see what team shows up as the number six seed," says Kurt Warner. "I'm interested to find out, and I'm even more interested to find out what team shows up to play them. Will it be the Arizona team that whipped the Vikings, or the team that committed seven deadly turnovers against the 49ers?"

The Rams are 1-13 and again headed for the top pick in the 2010 NFL draft. St. Louis is solid at running back, with Stephen Jackson leading the NFC in rushing despite most teams daring the pass-deficient Rams to run.

"And I've been accepting those dares all year," says Jackson. "Now it's time for 'truth:' I'm going 'on the lamb' next year, until the Rams can find me a legitimate team to carry on my back. Randy Moss carries the weight of the world on his shoulders? That's nothing to the load I bear."

Cardinals win, 34-16.

Detroit @ San Francisco (-10½)

Despite a 6-8 record and elimination from the playoff picture, the 49ers have many of the pieces in place for next year. With Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree, San Fran has talent at the skill positions to possibly overtake Arizona as division champs next year.

"I think we're one, maybe two years away from seeing our full potential," says Mike Singletary. "And one Alex Smith 'away' from realizing that potential. Until we find a consistent quarterback with leadership skills, this team won't make any serious noise in the postseason. That subject would make a great rap song, called the 'Super Bowl Muffle,' of course."

The Lions were valiant in defeat last week, wiping out an early 17-0 deficit, nearly knocking off the Cardinals before falling 31-24. Quarterback Drew Stanton, who relieved Daunte Culpepper, nearly led Detroit to the upset, and his play has left Jim Schwartz in a quandary.

"I've got to choose a starter at quarterback," says Schwartz, "and I've got three to select from. There's Matthew Stafford, Drew Stanton, or Daunte Culpepper. I don't want to risk it with Stafford. He cost us an arm and a leg, and he's injured an arm and a leg. I guess we need to protect our investment. Otherwise, we may never see a return on investment."

San Francisco wins, 31-21.

Denver @ Philadelphia (-7)

The 10-4 Eagles have clinched a playoff spot, and can wrap up the NFC East with a win over the Broncos, or a Dallas loss to Washington. There also still in the hunt for a first-round bye, but would have to overtake the 11-3 Vikings for the NFC's number two seed.

"We may be in the driver's seat," says Donovan McNabb, "but so was Tiger Woods. Of course, the driver's seat isn't such a bad place when you're doing that much riding. Anyway, the point is, we're not counting our eaglets before they hatch, and the Rocky theme isn't playing just yet, but we are saying 'Yo, Adrian Peterson, we'll see you in Minnesota for the divisional round.' We want to finish strong and beat the Broncos, then use the Cowboys as a springboard to postseason success, like we did last year."

The Broncos had a wild card spot all but sewn up until a fourth-quarter comeback by the Raiders rained on Denver's parade. Now 8-6, Denver holds the sixth spot in the playoff rankings, but there are a number of 7-7 teams counting on their downfall.

"We just blew a sure victory over the Raiders," say Josh McDaniels. "Now we're facing a must-win game against the Eagles. That can mean only one thing: a 'fowl'-mouthed inspirational speech from me."

Philadelphia wins, 24-20.

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-7)

At 14-0, the Colts are the last of the unbeatens, their latest escape a 35-31 win over the Jaguars last Thursday. During their perfect run, Indianapolis has made comeback victories look ordinary, and trailed the Jags for much of the game before Peyton Manning hit Reggie Wayne for a 65-yard touchdown pass.

"Hey, there's nothing wrong with admitting you like to 'take it' from behind," says Peyton Manning. "You just have to ignore whatever Larry Johnson may say about it. We've proven that we can be 'close' and have the cigar."

The Jets blew a golden opportunity to improve to 8-6, but a home loss to the Falcons left them at 7-7 and on the outside looking in at the current playoff picture.

"I think the Colts want to go undefeated and remain sharp for the playoffs," say Rex Ryan. "So, I expect them to be a lot like Joe Namath and refuse to 'call the dogs off.'"

"As you've probably heard, I incorrectly said we were out of the playoffs after losing to the Falcons. Obviously, I spoke too soon, and was guilty of an embarrassing situation known as 'premature exclamation.'"

Indianapolis wins, 27-17.

Dallas @ Washington (+7)

With a huge win in New Orleans last Saturday, the Cowboys boosted their playoff position and rid themselves of their December demons in the process. Dallas physically overwhelmed the previously undefeated Saints, harassing Drew Brees on defense and pounding Marion Barber on offense.

"Hey, now we can join the Mavericks and Stars," says Barber, "as Dallas teams with wins in December. The win against the Saints was a big win for us. I think it marked a turnaround for this team. Obviously, it was a big turnaround for Flozell Adams. He's stopped abusing opposing players; now, he's abusing his own. But we got the 'monkey off our back' by winning a December game. Now, if we could just take care of that 'elephant in the room,' who's always taunting us about our 'trunk-ated' playoff record."

"When we first played the Redskins, we really had a tough time. But now that we've hired the kicker, Shaun Suisham, whose two misses in that game probably would have sealed the win. If it comes down to a late game-winning field goal, Suisham will, once again, be in position to beat the Redskins."

Washington suffered a 45-12 thrashing at the hands of the Giants as new general manager Bruce Allen looked on in horror.

"I think it's time we appealed to not a 'higher' power," says Allen, "but a 'hire' power. We've been in talks with Mike Shanahan about he job for some time now, and I think he would be a perfect fit. After all, this is the Redskins, and with Mike's chameleon-like ability to turn beet red, he would make a great 'face' of the franchise."

Dallas wins, 26-13.

Minnesota @ Chicago (+7½)

After a 26-7 loss to Carolina last Sunday, Minnesota has lost two of its last three games, and the Vikings ship, which looked very strong not long ago, now seems to be taking on water. In addition, there seems to be some controversy surrounding Brett Favre's playing time, as Favre and Brad Childress were seen engaged in a heated discussion on the sidelines on Sunday night.

"This is Minnesota," says Favre. "If, in fact, our ship is 'taking on water,' the teams' experiences on Lake Minnetonka give us a wealth of experience in 'filling holes' on a leaking ship. Talk about 'hard' water. If that doesn't work, we can always resort to the 'Whizzinator' to express water from said sinking ship."

"As for my little sideline dust-up with Brad Childress, that's an internal matter that I made external in the press conference after the game. I don't know what Brad was thinking trying to get me to come out of a game we were leading 7-6. I'm Brett Favre! I never quit while I'm ahead."

Jay Cutler has been the most disappointing star of the NFL season. He's been so bad that he's likely to cost Lovie Smith his job. Cutler leads the NFL with 25 interceptions, and is likely to face the wrath of unhappy Bears fans on Monday night.

"Regardless of my fate," says Smith, "Jay needs to remain grounded. By that, I mean he shouldn't throw the ball. On the bright side, though, Jay's the early, and likely only, favorite to win 2010's Comeback Player of the Year award."

It's apparent what Favre is doing here. He's burning bridges and making enemies, and, at the same time, trying to make a case for the starting job in Chicago next year. It's obvious the Bears need a quarterback, and Favre, as a Bear, can get revenge on the Packers and the Vikings. Let the Favre 2010 stakes begin!

It's Monday night, and Favre has something to prove. Favre throws for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. Minnesota wins, 27-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

December 23, 2009

Wildest NFL Wild Card Ever?

Having 14 regular season games in the books should be plenty in terms of determining NFL playoff seeding, or at least in creating a relatively stable picture of how the season's last two weeks will set up relative to postseason considerations. To wit, this season's NFC playoff picture is very much solidified with only a single team currently on the outside looking in — the New York Giants — still mathematically alive. But the AFC, now this is a very different story, indeed.

We could guess, hypothesize, or postulate on who we believe will represent the AFC on the wild card weekend. We could take a cursory look at the schedule and see a couple of wins for a team here or a couple of wins for a team there and make our assumptions from that level of research. Heck, we may even get the teams right following that highly unscientific methodology! But this is a sports site and frankly, where is the "sport" in that?

Rather than throwing darts, I submit to you the results for the final two weeks of the season on a proverbial silver platter. Based on this careful assessment of the likely outcome for the 32 remaining games, the playoff picture will take care of itself. As an added holiday bonus and in the spirit of giving, I've also taken the liberty of projecting the entirety of the playoffs, eliminating the need to watch another minute of football this season. Without further ado, let's take a look into the crystal ball:

NFC

I'll keep this short and sweet. Dallas will win at Washington and lose at home to Philly. Philly wins out. The Giants beat the 'Skins on Monday in Week 15 (the only remaining unplayed game at the time of writing), destroy Carolina in the Meadowlands in Week 16, but will lose to a Minnesota team that suddenly will find itself competing for home-field advantage thanks to the embarrassing loss to the Panthers they just endured. The net result of all this activity is Philadelphia takes the division title and Dallas squeaks into the postseason, leaving Eli's Giants on the outside looking in.

Meanwhile, Green Bay will split their games — beating an awful Seattle team at Lambeau and losing to Arizona in Week 17, but their win over Seattle will lock up a playoff berth for the Pack. The Vikings will have beaten the Giants in Week 17, but will have lost to the Bears in Week 16 (gambling mantra No. 122: Beware the highly underachieving home dog on Monday night games at or near the end of a season if that game is between hated division rivals), so the Eagles will earn the first-round bye by way of their one win better division record. The Saints and Cardinals round out the playoff combatants.

AFC

Fair warning: this will not be short and sweet. With better than 50 permutations of potential playoff scenarios to chose from, the final two weeks of the season in the AFC are sure to be "must-see TV." Week 15 featured some of the most unimaginably improbable outcomes and a bevy of hotly-contested games that have resulted in as murky a wild card picture as I can remember ever seeing.

Denver played back to the field by blowing an absolutely un-losable game at home to the woe-begotten Oakland Raiders. The defending champion Steelers remained firmly in play by completing a miraculous last second, toe-tapping touchdown catch from Mike Wallace, of all people, that ultimately won a game against the Packers that they had no business winning. Tennessee's overtime win at home against a spunky Miami team and Houston's "you better win this f%&@ing game, Gary Kubiak" nail-biter in St. Louis keep both of those teams' unlikely playoff aspirations alive. And the Jets coughed up a home game to Atlanta thanks to their rookie QB making too many rookie QB mistakes in a game they really needed to win to realistically have a shot at the postseason, putting the seven-win team count to six with the current two clubhouse leaders for the wild card at 8 wins.

What do the next two weeks have in store? It will all start Christmas night in Tennessee as the Titans temporarily end Phillip Rivers' mastery of December (17-0) in beating the Chargers. This comes ahead of a Week 17 "gimme" at Seattle for Vince Young and Co., giving the Titans 9 wins on the season after starting 0-6. Those pesky Miami Dolphins — who have remained in play even with an injured reserve that includes their opening day starting QB (Chad Pennington), their best player in starting running back (Ronnie Brown), their top kick returner and most versatile offensive player (RB Patrick Cobbs), and two of their most consistent veteran defenders (DT Jason Ferguson and CB Will Allen) — will eliminate the underachieving Houston Texans with a home win in Week 16 (at the same time bringing a close to the Gary Kubiak era of Texan football). Pittsburgh will handle Baltimore at home, setting up a critical Week 17 matchup between the Steelers and the Dolphins in Miami, which I'll get to in a bit.

New England will split their last two games, winning one at home against Jacksonville and taking a loss in Houston with their "B Team" taking most of the reps. The former of these two contests will clinch the AFC East for the Pats, while eliminating the Jaguars' fading playoff hopes. The Jets are fodder for the Indianapolis Colts and their run at an undefeated season in Week 16, ending their slim chances at playing well into January and rendering their Week 17 home win against a Cincy team with nothing to play for a moot point. If you were paying attention earlier on in this article, you will have noticed that I have Philly winning out, which gives the Broncos seven losses, but rest-assured, Denver fans, your team will not cough up another game at home to an overmatched division rival as they should have no problems handling a Kansas City team in the season's final week.

This leaves a single game of import remaining, the aforementioned Pittsburgh at Miami contest. Without delving further into the details, suffice to say that Pittsburgh will be playing this game believing they have a shot at a wild card with a win as both Baltimore and Denver won't play until the later time slot. Miami will have equal visions of grandeur as a win will likely punch their playoff ticket for the second straight season. Pittsburgh has the edge on paper, but Miami has shown that they are as rugged a challenge as there is regardless of paper matchups. I'm going with the 'Fins in this Week 17 battle, but not by much, leaving the Steelers wondering what might have been had they not lost to bottom-feeders Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland earlier in the season.

If you happen to be keeping track at home as you read this, stop now because I'm about to summarize the whole shebang for you. Of the six 7-win teams leading into Weeks 16 and 17, my calculations have two, Tennessee and Miami, winning out and getting to nine wins. My projections also have the two 8-win teams in the AFC, Baltimore and Denver, also reaching the 9-win plateau, creating a four-way tie with two of those four destined for the postseason.

Here, believe it or not, is where it gets complicated. The first tiebreaker for wild card teams is to run the divisional tie-breaking procedures to leave only a single team from each division. Since each of our four potentials are from different conferences, this step is skipped. Step two is to check head-to-head scenarios. For multi-team assessment, a team will have had to either win or lose against each of the others in the grouping. Again, since no team played each of the other three, this step is skipped. Tiebreaker No. 3 is division record. The Titans will find themselves at 5-7, Miami, Denver, and Baltimore will each be 7-5; Tennessee is eliminated.

Wild card tie-breaking rules dictate that you are to revert to step one once a team is eliminated, so we'll do just that, and once again steps one and two do not pertain to these teams, so they are skipped. As I've already mentioned, each has 7 division wins, so we can proceed to tie-breaking step No. 4, which is record versus common opponents (minimum of four). In an exceptional oddity, each of the three remaining wild card potentials have played New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. In an even more odd coincidence, each has sported a 2-3 record against those four opponents. Yet another tie, which means on to step five: strength of victory.

Now, strength of victory is where things get a little sketchy, because much has to do with how the teams that each of the wild card hopefuls do in the final two weeks of the season. Rather than actually count up all the projected wins for those teams (which, sadly enough, I did), a more generic review of the facts should tell the story. Denver has wins against Cincy, Dallas, New England, and the Patriots — all 10 or more win teams — as well as a win against a projected nine-win New York team. Baltimore, conversely, has only one win against a 10-plus win team (San Diego). In fact, Baltimore will have won only three games against teams with 6 or more wins all season long, putting them at a decided disadvantage. Miami has a pile of wins against likely eight-win teams with a victory against 10-win New England to boot. All indications have Baltimore trailing both Miami and Denver in the strength of victory category by a good amount.

Lots can happen to change this, but it is quite safe to say that Baltimore will be the odd-man out with Denver likely earning the top wild card seed. As the process will start over for the final wild card spot once Denver is removed, Miami will ultimately wind up as the other wild card participant.

There is one caveat that has to be noted, however. If Miami earns the top wild card slot, which though unlikely is totally plausible, than Baltimore will get the other wild card slot, as they did beat Denver head-to-head, leaving the Broncos without plans for January. If these last two weeks play out as I've indicated above, there is a strong likelihood that playoff seeding in the AFC will depend heavily on how also-rans like Tampa Bay, Carolina, Oakland, Buffalo, and Cleveland finish their seasons. Told you it was confusing.

Now that the wild card mess is straightened out (well, sort of), a quick look at the rest of the AFC playoff seeding has Indy with home-field advantage throughout (and no, I do not believe they will go undefeated as I see a Buffalo winter playing a role in strategy as the Bills upend a cautious Colts team in Week 17), the Chargers with 12 wins earning a first round bye and New England and Cincinnati sitting in the No. 3 and No. 4 slots, respectively.

As promised, below are my projected playoff results:

Wild Card Weekend

NFC Game 1: #6 Dallas Cowboys at #3 Minnesota Vikings; Cowboys win, 20-13

NFC Game 2: #5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Arizona Cardinals; Cardinals win, 31-30

AFC Game 1: #6 Miami Dolphins at #3 New England Patriots; Dolphins win, 28-20

AFC Game 2: #5 Denver Broncos at #4 Cincinnati Bengals; Broncos win, 17-7

Divisional Playoffs

NFC Game 3: #4 Arizona Cardinals at #2 Philadelphia Eagles; Eagles win, 34-20

NFC Game 4: #6 Dallas Cowboys at #1 New Orleans Saints; Cowboys win, 21-19

AFC Game 3: #5 Denver Broncos at #2 San Diego Chargers; Chargers win, 38-10

AFC Game 4: #6 Miami Dolphins at #1 Indianapolis Colts; Colts win, 23-17

Conference Championship

NFC Game 5: #6 Dallas Cowboys at #2 Philadelphia Eagles; Eagles win, 24-17

AFC Game 5: #2 San Diego Chargers at #1 Indianapolis Colts; Chargers win, 27-24

Super Bowl XLIV

San Diego Chargers vs. Philadelphia Eagles; Chargers win, 24-20

Happy holidays to you all and have a safe, happy, and blessed New Year!

Posted by Matt Thomas at 11:25 AM | Comments (1)

Deck the Halls (and the BCS): Bowl Predictions

Bowl season has already started. So I'm a little late with a rundown, but hey, today was my appointed date to post, so deal with it. And let's face it: there haven't been any bowls you deeply cared about yet. (Though if you can enjoy a dramatic finish between teams you don't care at all about, the two-OT New Mexico Bowl would have been a good catch. Meanwhile, last night you might have been let down by a blowout of a Vegas Bowl by BYU. I don't know if giving college kids a trip to Vegas could be any more wasted.)

So here's a quick rundown of the bowls that matter to me. I'm not doing all 30 because trying to do that would make me want to stab a kitten, and besides, you wouldn't read most of it anyway. And as I've done in the past, I will rename them for accuracy to spite their corporate sponsors.

So here we go, the 11 most interesting bowl games of the season, because 11 is a nice even number.

The We-Cumulatively-Came-a-LONG-Way-to-Meet-in-the-Middle Bowl

Boston College was picked by some to go 0-8 in ACC play. USC was picked by some to contend for a national title. So the paths to their Emerald Bowl collision come from directly opposite directions. (Disclosure, I'm a USC grad. Writing this doesn't thrill me.)

Boston College had its coach being fired for interviewing with the Jets, and the reigning defensive player of the year sidelined with cancer. Yet the 8-4 Eagles took care of business and showed it's a program you have to account for in the ACC year in, year out.

USC, meanwhile, proved that flushing your entire defense into the NFL draft and starting a freshman QB are not the makings of a title contender. Four ineligible players will not help, either. Still, BC beat zero teams that finished above .500 and lost to Notre Dame, so USC 17, BC 16 in an ugly game.

Virgin Airlines Bowl

Not much scoring will be done here. Everyone is pretty high on Nebraska after an incredible defensive effort against Texas, headlined by human freak show, Ndamukong Suh. Meanwhile, Arizona has a pretty decent defense too, at least when playing any offense even close to as inept as Nebraska's. Nebraska 13, Arizona 10.

The Gerhart-vs.-Nine-Man-Box Bowl

Toby Gerhart should have won the Heisman, with 11 more touchdowns and nearly 200 more yards in one fewer game than the winner, all while getting less help from his team. (He even had a slight edge in average ranking of rush defenses he faced.) Of course, with quarterback Andrew Luck out, this matchup might not be ideal; I wonder what Oklahoma will prepare for. Not that this will be new for Gerhart, but the Sooners' defense has not been a part of their disappointment and is stout. Oklahoma, whether surly from a disappointing season or flat in a bowl they didn't want, also features serious speed problems for Stanford's lackluster pass defense. Gerhart runs a few Sooners over, but Oklahoma is too talented for this bowl when the other team is out a starting quarterback. Oklahoma 38, Stanford 24.

The It's-Time-Bobby Bowl

The reason 6-6 Florida State is in the Gator Bowl on New Years Day is obviously a lifetime achievement award after nearly three and a half decades of Bobby Bowden at the helm.

And as over-matched as they should reasonably should be in this final game, West Virginia doesn't have a lot of truly inspiring results. It beat Pitt, but Pitt made its bones on the almost entirely on the same questionable Big East schedule the Mountaineers did. So Florida State pulls an upset in a game it cares about more deeply than its opponent does. Florida State 34, West Virginia 31.

The I-Outlasted-Bowden Bowl

Meanwhile, JoPa keeps trudging along. Just don't expect a Penn State team that played a cream-puff non-conference schedule, (Temple and Syracuse were the hard part for the Nittany Lions) and didn't beat a ranked team all year, to hang with battle-tested Tigers of LSU. Being ranked higher doesn't put points on the scoreboard in this cat fight. LSU 38, Penn State 10.

The Goofy Colors Bowl

Nothing says football like Creamsicle Orange and whatever Virginia Tech calls that purpley-maroon color, all in what was once known as the Peach Bowl. Okay, reaching for a storyline there, but surely Lane Kiffin will throw some fuel on the fire later.

Both teams do come in playing good football. Tennessee has won four of five; the Hokies have won five straight. But in this ACC/SEC Chick-Fil-a Bowl, the SEC has won four straight, so I'll play it safe. Tennessee 23, Virginia Tech 21.

The New-Faces-Same-Result Bowl

Ohio State hasn't been in Pasadena since 1997. Oregon hasn't smelled roses since 1995. USC is not in the Rose Bowl this year for just the second time in seven years. (Shudders.) Another big gap: a Big Ten School hasn't won a Rose Bowl since Ron Dayne ran over a Stanford a decade ago.

Jeremiah Masoli quarterbacks an explosive spread, triple-option offense that can run or pass with lethal efficiency. LaMichael James set the Pac-10 freshman rushing record and LeGarrette Blount is back. Ohio struggled with Navy's option attack. This is far scarier. The Buckeye offense never really got on track with Terrelle Pryor, and has to deal with the traditional Big Ten layoff. The drought continues for the Midwest. Oregon 44, Ohio State 27.

The Up-Yours-Coach Bowl

After the greatest season in Cincinnati history, the program has more money, interest, and attention than ever heading into the Sugar Bowl against Florida. So, naturally, the coach jumped ship pre-bowl for a team that finished 6-6 and lost to both Big East teams it faced.

That's life when you are Cincinnati and Notre Dame is Notre Dame. Still, it will be interesting to see if Tony Pike's aerial assault can be as productive against a top defense like Florida; the best it's seen is Oregon State (scored 28 points in that win). Tim Tebow will provide his share of the storyline in his final college game. It wouldn't surprise me if Cincy fired out of the gates to prove they went undefeated, not Brian Kelly. And remember, a convincing win over the SEC runners-up (a la Utah last year) would give them at least a somewhat legitimate psychological claim on a mythical share of a national title. Or something like that.

Try as I might, I just don't see it. Florida 35, Cincinnati 27.

The Not-BCS/Second Amendment Bowl

Well, the Cotton Bowl lost prestige when the four BCS Bowls were designated, and it is a fitting host to two armed teams that had designs on BCS Bowls heading into the year. The Rebels of Ole Miss ran out of ammo early, while Oklahoma State had a chance as late as their final game, until the Cowboys fired blanks at Oklahoma. They do get quarterback Zach Robinson back, and undoubtedly he'll be healthier than he was in that bitter 27-0 loss. They also comfortably beat Georgia in its lone SEC matchup this season. Minor upset: Oklahoma State 37, Mississippi 28.

The BCS Bust Bowl (AKA Last year's Poinsettia Bowl)

Ah, the BCS continues to find new ways to piss off every college football fan on earth. A typically entertaining Boise State, undefeated and standing with the scalp of the Pac-10 champ (and admittedly little else), meets up with undefeated TCU, with an ACC divisional champ (at Clemson) and quality MWC programs Utah and BYU on their victim list.

Naturally, everyone wants to see if the BCS Busters can compete. Instead we siphon them of to Glendale to prove nothing in the Fiesta Bowl. (At least it pays better than the Poinsettia!)

Sure, the selection process might have handcuffed the Fiesta. But BCS rules allow a mutually agreed switch even after the fact to prevent rematches from the previous year. The bowl heads elected not to. Thanks.

Oh, the football. Boise State is as creative and entertaining as any team, and has a great quarterback in Kellen Moore. But while effective, it wasn't nearly as explosive in its one game against a BCS conference team (although it was the first game). TCU, meanwhile, has a terror of a defense (ask Boise State's 16 points last year) to go with a 40-plus points-per-game offense. TCU 30, Boise State 24.

The We-Settled Bowl

Seeing Iowa and Georgia Tech play Boise State or TCU would have been intriguing. Instead, the Orange Bowl played it safe with two good-not-great BCS schools. With already relatively small school Georgia Tech automatically selected, the Orange Bowl predictably grabbed a Big Ten school that will travel well in Iowa.

There are two good things about this game. No. 1, Iowa was rightly invited over more TV-friendly and populous Penn State. Same records, but Iowa beat Penn State and had a superior resume. The second good thing is Georgia Tech's triple option. Josh Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer run coach Paul Johnson's old-school approach, and as you can tell from my thoughts on Oregon and Boise State, I'm a sucker for unique, deceptive offenses. Georgia Tech 34, Iowa 17.

The Rooting-For-a-Meteor Bowl

Okay, so wishing for a catastrophic event in a stadium full of 90,000 people sounds kind of harsh and petty. And yes, I am unfairly biased. My impression of Mack Brown is that he's a slimy politician-like creature, and he is the head of an unbearable program with an arrogant, entitled fan base. (Yes, I thought this before they beat USC in 2006, and yes, I also hold that against him.) My impression of Nick Saban is that I'd rather hang out with Mack Brown. And he's the head of an unbearable program with an arrogant, entitled fan base. That they play at my rival's stadium means even the collateral damage is intriguing to me.

(Yes, I am aware of the irony of me hating arrogant, entitled fan bases as a USC fan.)

My problem with this matchup does actually stem beyond my biases, though. This game is the representation of what's wrong with college football. I get that some teams have more tradition and resources than others, and that this will influence success; basketball has that, too. And these two programs are likely the best two teams in the country; I won't say someone else deserves to be there. But there are three other undefeated teams, and three teams in all could finish that way.

I don't care if we all "know" Texabama would crush the others; it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. This is sport, not a beauty pageant. Wins and losses are what matter, not opinion. What we think we "know" shouldn't matter.

So enjoy the title game, another representation of college football elitism. Oh, by the way, Texas gets crushed; Colt McCoy struggles with another good defense, and no way Greg McElroy and Mark Ingram lay the egg that Nebraska did on offense. 'Bama 31, Texas 16.

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 11:16 AM | Comments (9)

December 22, 2009

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* All NFL fans owe our gratitude to the East Coast stadium crews who got the fields ready after record snowfalls this weekend. Thanks, you did a great job.

* I hope the Browns made their job offer to Mike Holmgren contingent upon his promising not to hire Jim Zorn or Dick Jauron as head coach.

* Phil Simms said on Sunday that Cincinnati has "one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The numbers don't lie." In this case, though, they actually do. DT Domata Peko hasn't played in three weeks and the team isn't the same without him.

* The Bengals were dealing with a very difficult situation this week, and I was impressed with the way they handled it. They looked inspired and played their best game in more than a month. Playing anyone else, they probably would have won. Sympathy and respect.

* Nick Folk this week became the second kicker to lose his job after missing a short field goal against the Saints. Ironically, he was replaced by the other one, Shaun Suisham. Big upgrade there, Dallas.

***

For the most part, I like NBC's Sunday night broadcast. Al Michaels is a solid play-by-play guy, Cris Collinsworth is capable of valuable in-game analysis, and getting Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann back together on a sports broadcast was a coup. But NBC was eating its words this weekend, and I hope they're hungry, because they're likely to get more of the same.

Last weekend, Tony Dungy declared for some reason that the Cowboys had "no chance" to beat the Saints in Week 15. After the Cowboys' victory, Tony Romo mentioned that Dungy's guarantee had been circulating through the Dallas locker room. Patrick, doing the highlights, spent about 15 seconds riffing on Pittsburgh losing its sixth straight game, crashing and burning. This was shortly after the Steelers scored a game-winning touchdown to end their losing streak at five.

There's more fuel for the fire, now, too. This Sunday, asked about the most dangerous 7-7 team in the AFC, Rodney Harrison replied, "There's no question it's Pittsburgh." Hold on. The Steelers have lost five of their last six. The Titans have won seven of their last eight. The Dolphins get Pittsburgh at home in Week 17 and will probably be favored. Isn't there at least a question that Tennessee or Miami might be the more dangerous team? This is the same thing that got Dungy into trouble. Simply say, "I think it's Pittsburgh," and you're merely expressing an opinion. Declare something absolutely, and it's bulletin board material, mea culpa material.

Finally, Collinsworth continues to propagate the myth that Minnesota's 40-year-old quarterback is "playing absolutely the best football of his career." In fact, said Collinsworth, "It's not even close." We've already debunked this, but let's compare 2009 to his first MVP season, 1995.

1995: 359-570, 4,413 yards, 38 TD, 13 INT, 99.5 rating
2009: 312-460, 3,565 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT, 104.1 rating

On the surface, that's close, which is already enough to disprove Collinsworth. I don't know where he gets his "not even close." But let me show that 1995 was clearly better. First of all, Green Bay played a harder schedule that year (.492) than the Vikings have in '09 (.413). Not only did the Packers play better defenses, those defenses were concentrating on shutting down the pass. The QB in question had already made Pro Bowls by that time, and RB Edgar Bennett didn't scare anyone. That's in stark contrast to this year's team, when every defense the Vikings face starts by trying to contain Adrian Peterson. Surely even Collinsworth would concede that it's easier to throw against teams focused on stopping the run. You see fewer defenders in coverage and less aggressive pass rush, plus your play-action is more effective. Those are all advantages that are present in '09 but weren't in '95.

Now let's look at the numbers again, this time projected for a full 16-game schedule:

1995: 359-570, 4,413 yards, 38 TD, 13 INT, 99.5 rating
2009: 357-526, 4,074 yards, 31 TD, 8 INT, 104.1 rating

In 1995, he had more completions, more yards, more TDs, and a better TD/INT differential. The rating appears to be a little better this year, but it's actually not. Offensive strategy and rules have changed in the last 15 years. In 1995, the average passer rating was 77.5; this season, it's 81.5. His rating then was 28.4% above average, compared to 27.7% this season. And remember, this year he's had a much easier schedule, defenses focused on the run, and home games in a dome. He also ran better in '95 (181 yards and another 3 TDs) than '09 (5 yards, no TDs) and got sacked less often (33 times, compared to a 35-sack pace this year). 1995 was a better season, but Collinsworth may have been right about one thing: it's not close.

I would argue that 1995 wasn't even this guy's best season; 1996 was. All I'm asking is that these announcers and analysts ditch the needless hyperbole. Don't state opinions as facts. Don't say "no question" or "not close" when there's a great deal of question. Don't bury a team before the game is over. On to the rankings, brackets show last week's rank.

1. Indianapolis Colts [2] — Seem to have learned their lesson. This team has always failed in the playoffs after resting its starters. The 2006 squad that won the Super Bowl was probably the worst Colts team of the last five years, but it played hard in Week 17 and went into the postseason with some rhythm and momentum. What was up with Dallas Clark's butterfingers on Thursday, though? He almost dropped his first touchdown and bobbled another pass into an interception. The Colts' 7 fourth-quarter comebacks this season are a league record.

2. San Diego Chargers [3] — Last week, I predicted a double-digit victory against the Bengals, and instead they won on a last-minute field goal that they were only in position for because of an official's error. I think Chris Henry's death inspired Cincinnati to play its best and I don't think the game would be as close if they played again. That inspiration still wasn't enough to end San Diego's nine-game winning streak. During the streak, the Chargers have outscored their opponents 265-147, winning by an average of almost two touchdowns (13.1). How about some love for kicker Nate Kaeding? Referee error or not, the kid nailed a 52-yard game-winning field goal with 3 seconds left. San Diego has won more games with special teams than anyone else this decade.

3. New Orleans Saints [1] — If the loss on Saturday night surprised you, you haven't been paying attention. Injuries have become a big issue, particularly on defense. Dallas racked up a 13-minute edge in time of possession on Saturday. Story of the game: Dallas converted more than half of its third downs, the Saints just 1 out of 7. Left tackle Jermon Bushrod got absolutely destroyed in the game. I put that failure on the coaching staff. Bushrod needed help, and he didn't get it. A sixth blocker is more important than a fifth receiver in that situation.

4. Tennessee Titans [5] — Who would you rather play right now, the Vikings or the Titans? Minnesota has lost more games in the last three weeks than Tennessee has in the last two months. I'd love to see the Titans sneak into the playoffs, but it's just not going to happen. They'd have to win both of their remaining games, and Baltimore or Denver would have to lose both of theirs. Also, the Jets, Steelers, and Jags would all have to lose again. Too many factors outside their control, not to mention they have to beat San Diego. Vince Young continues to dazzle. I don't know where this came from, but he's one of the 10 best QBs in the league right now.

5. Philadelphia Eagles [8] — Playmakers in the secondary. Asante Samuel intercepted his 8th pass of the season. Quintin Mikell intercepted a pass. Sheldon Brown made several key tackles and forced a fumble. The 49ers went 0/11 on third downs this weekend (they did make 3/4 fourth down conversions). The offense might be even better than the defense, though. In his two games since returning from a concussion, DeSean Jackson has 318 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns (1 on a punt return).

6. Dallas Cowboys [11] — Looked focused and disciplined on Saturday night. Tony Romo this December: 82-119, 953 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, 109.7 rating. His average game is 318 yards and 2 TDs with no picks. He's had a passer rating over 100 in each game. Even if the Cowboys had lost this weekend, that wouldn't make Romo or his teammates chokers. It would just mean that they had lost to the two of the three best teams in the league, plus a tough road game against a division opponent with a winning record. This December curse is a B.S. story, and it's especially frustrating because most of the people perpetuating it realize that it's B.S.

7. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Defense has improved a ton since the beginning of the season. In their six games before the bye, the Ravens allowed an average of 21.7 points per game. In the eight games since, that number has dropped to 12.4. This team could be scary if it qualifies for the postseason, especially as a division winner. Baltimore is 6-2 at home.

8. Arizona Cardinals [6] — Disturbingly blah performances the last two weeks, losing to San Francisco and nearly going to overtime with Detroit. The Cardinals have two home games left and need to capture some kind of momentum if they're going to replicate last year's improbable Super Bowl run. Larry Fitzgerald has been shut down in three of the last four weeks. Arizona is 8-2 when he has at least 50 yards, 1-3 when he doesn't.

9. Minnesota Vikings [7] — Time to worry. I figured the loss to Arizona was just a bad matchup against a good team. But now they've lost two of three, and looked really bad in both losses. The QB is going through another December slump (this one is for real; the man is 40) and the defense is affected by injuries. But what has happened to Adrian Peterson? He did have a nice run-after-catch this weekend, but in the last month, he's averaging 64 yards per game and 3.2 per carry, with no 100-yard games. The blocking is still there, particularly on inside runs, and Peterson isn't seeing a ton of 8- or 9-man fronts. This offense doesn't run without A.P., and right now, he's not running. Antoine Winfield has been getting burned since his return from injury. Yeah, the man can hit. But right now, he can't cover. Sunday's game turned into a rout in the fourth quarter. The Vikings were outgained by 160 yards, went 1/10 on third downs, and lost time of possession by 16 minutes.

10. Green Bay Packers [4] — Win streak ends at five, against a team that clearly wanted it more. The Packers know they basically have a wild card sewn up, and the Steelers knew they had to win. Bottom line, Green Bay's defense didn't show up. It's hard to fault the offense. Aaron Rodgers played a tremendous game (405 total yards, 4 TDs, no turnovers) and Ryan Grant was effective in limited action. The game featured 973 yards of offense.

11. Miami Dolphins [12] — According to pro-football-reference.com, they've played the hardest schedule in the NFL this year. In the next two weeks, the Dolphins face a pair of teams (Houston and Pittsburgh) with whom they are competing for a playoff spot. That's a mixed blessing, as the games won't be easy, but both are at home, and Miami has a chance to knock out two rivals. The NFC playoff picture is almost set at this point, but the AFC is still a wild race, with 12 teams alive.

12. New England Patriots [13] — Finally won in an opponent's stadium. The Pats are 7-0 at home, 1-0 at neutral sites, and 1-5 on the road. Tom Brady has a 103.4 passer rating at home, compared to 79.3 on the road. Brady also seems to be afflicted by the omnipresent December curse: his rating was 96.5 entering the month, but in the last three weeks, it's 79.4. Eerie! Everyone is cursed in December! Except Philip Rivers! I could see New England winning a home playoff game, but it's tough to imagine them beating the Colts or Chargers on the road.

13. Denver Broncos [9] — Is any team harder to figure out? They started 6-0, then lost four straight in ugly fashion. They rebound with two huge wins and then lose another two in a row. If they don't win in Philadelphia this week, they probably won't make the playoffs. Kyle Orton played well this week, but he passed 34 times. This team is most successful when it runs the ball. The Broncos are 6-1 when they pass fewer than 30 times.

14. New York Giants [15] — Offense has been on fire recently, scoring 31, 38, and 45 points in the last three weeks. They dominated Monday's game to an extent that defies analysis. Osi Umenyiora destroyed Levi Jones, and New York piled up 16 first downs before Washington finally got one on a Jason Campbell scramble. The Giants have won four in a row against Washington, and seven of the last eight.

15. Cincinnati Bengals [16] — Please don't misinterpret this as disrespect for a mournful situation. I had nothing against Chris Henry, and people who knew him seem to have cared about him a great deal. But I question the sincerity of Chad Ochocinco's behavior in the wake of Henry's death. Chad has deliberately cultivated a certain image with the media, and has made it clear that he will do everything within his power to get on camera. The consequence is that when he speaks about something serious like this, I don't believe him. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. The honest man mourns in private. The hypocrite makes sure people see him. Chad may be sincere, but he's put himself in a position where he is not to be believed. He's the boy who cried put-me-on-camera.

16. Washington Redskins [14] — I've said this before, but Walt Coleman absolutely cannot be an NFL referee any longer after this season. Monday was the last straw. In a fight with punches thrown, how does only one penalty get called and no one ejected? Take a minute and think of the ten most heinous referee mistakes you can remember from the last 15 seasons. Coleman is probably responsible for about half of them. Tuck rule? Coleman. Last year's Baltimore/Pittsburgh game with Santonio Holmes at the goal line? That's him, too. The 2002 Vikings/Packers game in which the league admitted Coleman made at least nine mistakes? Yeah. The Week 9 Cowboys/Eagles game in which Coleman denied Donovan McNabb a first down ... I could go on. How do you get one penalty and no ejections in a fight with punches thrown on both sides? This is not excusable any more. The league cannot keep him after this year.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Great offensive gameplan and performance against the Colts. When you control time of possession (+11 minutes) and score 31 points, you expect to win. Their defense just couldn't stop the Colts. I'm not sure that's anyone's fault. You just have to hope you catch them on an off night, and the Jags didn't. I like defense as much as the next person (probably more, in fact), but that was a fun game.

18. Carolina Panthers [21] — Played an inspired second half. The whole offense lit up, but QB Matt Moore deserves special recognition. Moore is 2-1 as starter, with an 88.0 passer rating, compared to Jake Delhomme's 4-7 record and 59.4 rating. Moore throws a nice deep ball and he avoided the critical mistakes Delhomme has been prone to. The offensive line did a great job giving Moore time on Sunday night. Carolina's most important player this weekend was DE Julius Peppers. He was only officially credited with one sack, but Peppers absolutely took over the game in the second half.

19. Houston Texans [18] — Andre Johnson has two straight games with over 190 receiving yards, the only player in history to do so. Johnson needs to be double-covered on every play (except by the Jets, who have Darrelle Revis). In fact, I would play nickel against Houston on first down. The team has no idea who its running back is, and Matt Schaub is second in the NFL in passing yards.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers [23] — I still don't like the onside kick, but Mike Tomlin's explanation makes sense. He didn't believe his defense could stop Green Bay, and he was probably right. By kicking onside, the Steelers could get the ball back and run the clock or maybe score. If Green Bay recovered, it would score more quickly with a short field and Pittsburgh would have time to answer. This was a great win, but the Steelers have two tough games left, and they're unlikely to make the playoffs.

21. San Francisco 49ers [19] — Would they still be in playoff contention if Michael Crabtree had signed earlier? The Niners actually have a worse record (3-6) with Crabtree than without him (3-2), but I think that's a scheduling fluke. Would Crabtree have been worth three points — or even just a few more seconds — in the Minnesota loss? He's played well since joining the team, and they could have used another weapon early in the season. If I was Shaun Hill, I'd be a little bitter.

22. Atlanta Falcons [22] — Got Matt Ryan back and played really well on defense, but they basically won because the Jets couldn't make a field goal. It was only the team's second road win of the year.

23. New York Jets [20] — NFL math: NYJ - INT = playoffs. The Jets are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and they're good running the ball. With a decent game-manager at quarterback, a Kyle Orton or David Garrard, they'd be a playoff shoo-in. Instead, they repeatedly give games away on turnovers. Defenses have figured out Mark Sanchez. In the first month of the season, Sanchez threw 4 TDs and 2 INTs, with an 87.7 passer rating. Since then: 8 TDs, 18 INTs, 53.7 rating. The offensive line plays below its reputation. It also bears noting that the Jets have lost two games this season directly because of special teams.

24. Cleveland Browns [29] — Two straight wins, and they haven't been really blown out since before the bye. Here is Brady Quinn's amazing stat line in their 41-34 victory: 10-17, 66 yards, 2 INT, 27.7 rating. You can get away with that when Jerome Harrison rushes for 286 yards (third-most all-time) and Josh Cribbs returns two kickoffs for touchdowns. Cribbs now holds the career record for KR TDs (8).

25. Oakland Raiders [27] — Won on on a touchdown by their third-string QB (demoted starter JaMarcus Russell). Even fourth-stringer J.P. Losman got into the game briefly. Can you imagine Mike Shanahan's reaction if he were still coaching the Broncos? The teams Oakland has beaten have a combined record of 37-33. The 3-11 Chiefs drag that down, but the other four are all in playoff contention.

26. Buffalo Bills [26] — Lead the NFL in interceptions (26) and opponents' passer rating (59.7), but they're 5-9 because of their terrible offense, ranked 30th in the league. The Bills have scored more than 20 points only once in the last three months, when they intercepted Miami four times.

27. Seattle Seahawks [24] — You know how above-average quarterbacks eventually make the transition to "wily veteran backup?" Matt Hasselbeck is at that point in his career.

28. Chicago Bears [25] — If you don't count a win over the awful 1-13 Rams, Chicago has lost its last six games against real teams. If you don't count the 3-11 Browns, the streak is eight. If you also discount the hopeless 2-12 Lions, misleadingly 5-9 Seahawks, and 3-6 non-Polamalu Steelers, then the Bears haven't actually won a game all season. With Ryan Leaf at quarterback, it's understandable. As bad as he's been before this, Sunday was actually Jay Cutler's worst game of the season. Chicago's only points came on a punt return.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — There was a defense sighting in Seattle this weekend. I think the game said more about the Seahawks than the Bucs, but it was a nice win for a team enduring its worst season since the '80s.

30. Detroit Lions [30] — Their opponents have scored 437 points this season, by far the worst in the league (Chiefs, 383). Detroit won't break the record (533, 1981 Colts), but it has a chance for third-worst (501, 1966 Giants) and is on pace for fourth-worst (487, 1980 Saints). Second-worst was last year's Lions (517). This is a historically bad defense.

31. St. Louis Rams [32] — Steven Jackson led the team in rushing and receiving this week. It's hard not to wonder what he could do on a better team.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [28] — Beat Pittsburgh the week before Thanksgiving. Since then, they've gotten humiliated by a pair of division rivals (43-14 and 44-13) and lost to two of the worst teams in the league (Buffalo and Cleveland). No one has played worse in the last month.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:55 AM | Comments (0)

Early Season Review: What We've Learned

If the out-of-conference games were any indication, this year's college basketball season might be one of the most memorable in recent history. With plenty of teams that have enough talent to win it all this year, and even more that might be that good after they gain some experience, March Madness can't come soon enough. But even in a season where so much is uncertain, we do know some things without a doubt.

Five Things We've Learned

1. The Kansas Jayhawks are the best team in the nation.

This shouldn't surprise anybody, since they're ranked first in every major poll, and they deserve to be. With apologies to a slew of other fantastic teams near the top of the polls this year, no team is more impressive than the team boasting not one, but two All-Americans. Add to that one of the best freshman of last year's recruiting class and the best supporting cast in the nation, and you've got a recipe for nearly limitless success.

Sherron Collins is the second most consistently electrifying player in the nation, and Cole Aldrich has shown a propensity for imposing his will in the paint. If Xavier Henry is anywhere near as good as advertised, and it appears that he is, I'd be fairly surprised to not hear Kansas fans chanting "Rock Chalk, Jayhawk" all the way through March.

2. The Kentucky Wildcats are the most improved team in college basketball.

John Calipari made this one particularly easy when he assembled the best recruiting class of the decade. John Wall looks eerily like Derrick Rose did in his freshman year, except for one major difference — Wall just might be better. Besides Wall, the Wildcats also added five-star recruits DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, and Eric Bledsoe, and top-40 recruit Jon Hood. Those five freshmen would have mopped the floor with last year's Kentucky team, even if Jodie Meeks had stayed.

Having said that, it might seem like Kentucky should be considered the best team in the nation, and in any other year, they probably would be. The one problem they face is that the Kansas Jayhawks were built to beat relatively inexperienced squads like Kentucky. Regardless of this fact, Kentucky appears destined for a deep run in March. Considering that they not only failed to reach the NCAA tournament last year, but also floundered in the quarterfinal round of the NIT, this season should be a big relief to fans who have become accustomed to sustained success.

3. The Louisville Cardinals aren't nearly as good most people thought.

I never thought I'd say this, but Rick Pitino is leading the most disappointing team in college basketball. The Cardinals might be far from the epitome of underachievers, but I expect better of a team with as much talent as Louisville. I know they lost two players to the NBA draft, but they retained Edgar Sosa, Samardo Samuels, and Terrence Jennings, all of whom played important roles in last year's squad that got a top seed in the NCAA tournament.

All the Cardinals have done so far is go 7-3, a record which is not, in and of itself, such a terrible thing. The problem is that not one of those seven wins has come against elite competition, and only one of the losses has come against a top-25 team. They're far from being declared a bust for this year, but they have simply not met expectations to this point.

4. The Syracuse Orange are much better than most people thought.

After a preseason loss to Division II Le Moyne, many people, myself included, wrote off the Orange as simply another pretty good team with no chance of being truly special. Since that game, Syracuse has won all 11 games it has played, and has done so with an average margin of victory of 25 points.

Still not impressed? One of those wins came against North Carolina, in Madison Square Garden, by 16 points, which proves that they can win on the road, in the most hostile of environments. They have six different players averaging 10 or more points per game, which proves that they clearly have depth. This team will win a lot this year, even in the mighty Big East.

5. The Big East is still the best conference in college basketball.

The battle for the title of best conference is closer than it was last year, but the Big East is still on top of the college hoops world. They have five teams in the top-15 of the latest coaches poll, and 11 teams with two losses or less. They'll end up with no less than half a dozen teams in the NCAA tournament, and the majority of those teams will be capable of winning multiple games once there.

Five Predictions

1. The national championship game will feature at least one Big 12 team.

2. John Wall won't win National Player of the Year, and neither will Sherron Collins.

3. The Kentucky Wildcats will win 30 games this year.

4. The UNLV Runnin' Rebels will play in the Elite Eight.

5. The Gonzaga Bulldogs won't finish first in the WCC.

Whether you agree or disagree with any of this, one thing is clear to everyone. This year's road to March Madness won't be short of excitement memorable games.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 11:54 AM | Comments (6)

December 21, 2009

The Spectacle That is the NBA

Last week, I wrote about Kobe Bryant, and whether or not he should sit out occasionally in order to rest some of his lingering injuries.

Basically, I was torn on the issue because, on the one hand, I love watching Kobe Bryant play. His game just mesmerizes me. On the other hand, I know that in the long-term, Kobe is almost assuredly doing more harm than good by playing through all his ailments.

And even though I eventually came to the conclusion that I'd rather see Kobe sit if it meant prolonging his career, there was a huge asterisk sprinkled into the article:

"The Lakers make their one and only trip to Detroit on Sunday, and you better believe that I already have my tickets. "Disappointed" would be understating how I'd feel if Kobe didn't play in that game. "Devastated" would be overstating it. But I'd be a lot closer to the latter if he chose to sit the Piston game out."

The point is: attending the Laker games has become a tradition for me the past few seasons.

I try to squeeze in as many games as I can each season, but the Laker game is the only game I circle on my calendar the second the schedule comes out.

You can watch all the basketball on TV you want, but there is nothing like watching the best player or the best team on the planet play live. When Los Angeles comes to town, you get the best of each. I wouldn't miss it for the world.

Sunday marked the fourth season in a row that I've gone to the Palace to see the Lakers play.

But, let's just say, things seemed different this time around.

I went with my friend Jim, quite possibly the biggest Lakers fan not located in Southern California. We had good seats, we were enjoying the game, but something wasn't quite right.

Then, during a timeout early in the game, Jim starts scanning the arena with his eyes and says to me, "Wow, this is more of a spectacle than a basketball game, huh?"

Perfect. Couldn't have said it better myself.

The entire game was a freaking spectacle. It felt like the basketball game itself was secondary to all the other nonsense that they crammed into this two and a half hour event.

From the second we entered the arena, it felt more like a trip to an amusement park than a basketball game. There was a drum line of about 10 people banging away in the atrium. There was a 6-to-8-piece jazz band playing music courtside. Worldwide Wes was on the court making his rounds to the fans in the courtside seats doing whatever it is that Worldwide Wes does.

And this was still a half hour before the game even started. We hadn't even scratched the surface of what was yet to come.

During the introduction of the starting lineups, the Pistons shoot flames about 20 feet high from each basket. The "BOOM" from the flames made at least five people in my section jump, and the guy next was so caught off-guard by it he lost about half of his approximately 14-gallon tub of popcorn. Even tens rows back, we could feel the heat.

At this point, we had already encountered live music (both in the concourse and on the court), explosions, 20-foot flames, a rendition of the Star Spangled Banner from an a cappella group that prominently featured a guy with a blonde mohawk beat boxing (which, no doubt, is exactly how Francis Scott Key originally intended the song to be performed), and we hadn't even had the opening tip yet.

Things only got worse form there.

In the first quarter alone, there was a marriage proposal on the jumbotron (she said yes!), Pistons players singing parody lyrics to Christmas songs on the big screen ("Grandma got run over by Rip Hamilton" was my favorite), and Hooper the mascot shooting mini-basketballs out of a cannon into the crowd (I would have caught one, but I didn't want to sacrifice my $8.50 beverage to make a play for it).

That was just the first quarter.

Other things that happened throughout the game: Mason, the Pistons' ultra-obnoxious public address announcer, said every player's name like James Bond (Stuckey; Rodney Stuckey); Hooper came out and performed with a mini-me version of himself called Mini-Hooper; Two guys ran around the court for most of the game holding signs that said "Noise!"; The Automotion Dancers carried pizzas into the stands and gave them away to fans; They also took oversized scratch-off lottery tickets into the stands and gave them away; There was a guy attempting as many free throws as he could in 24 seconds that got $25 per make; There was an awkward interview with season ticket holders; There was Kiss Cam; There was Dance Cam; There was Sing-a-long Cam; and of course, "MAKE SOME NOISE!!!" plastered on the jumbotron at the most curious times (of course, the arena erupted every time).

When did all of this happen? When I think back to all of the previous Laker games I had been to, and all of the other Pistons games I've seen in person over the past few seasons, there are certain plays that come to mind immediately.

I remember going to the game last season and coming away thinking, "I really like how much L.O. talks on defense."

This year, I came home with "Ben Wallace is coming to town" stuck in my head.

I realize that I am a part of a very small group of people that attend games: diehard NBA fans. I go because I want to see things like how well the Lakers communicate on defense, how unguardable Will Bynum is going to the basket, and how easily Kobe creates space for himself off the dribble. These are the kinds of things that don't translate to a television broadcast.

The average fan doesn't care about that kind of stuff, I get that. But at some point, don't we need to find a happy medium?

It's not just Detroit, but arenas all around the league have taken the actual basketball game and made it secondary to all the pomp and circumstance that comes during timeouts.

Maybe I am in the minority when I say that I just want to go to a game and watch my favorite sport without a three-ring-circus going on around it, but I know I'm not alone. Surely there are other huge NBA fans that go to games and get annoyed by this sort of stuff.

And maybe that is why attendance is down this year. Teams spend so much time and energy trying to put on a good show for its "fringe" fans that they've completely alienated people that come to the game because NBA basketball is the best sport to watch in person.

I'm sure there were plenty of people enthralled by what pair of strangers would appear next on the "Kiss Cam," but did they ever consider the group of people that might be just as interested in seeing the box score for the game during a timeout?

When Jim mentioned that Charlie Villanueva looked active on the glass, I had to look it up on my phone during a timeout to see how many rebounds he actually had.

Maybe if the team was better or the economy didn't suck so bad, the Pistons could market the game itself to bring people in like they did during the Chauncey Billups "Goin' to Work" era. But I don't see that happening any time soon. We've passed the point of no return.

Attending an NBA game is now, and my friend so eloquently put it, a spectacle.

I'm not saying don't bother to attend an NBA game this year. Quite the opposite, in fact. I thoroughly enjoyed watching the game itself. If you love basketball, you are doing yourself a disservice if you don't get out and attend at least one game in person this season and marvel at how talented and athletic these guys are.

Just be aware, you're not just attending a basketball game, you're attending a sensory overloading, headache-inducing spectacle.

But if you can navigate through all the hoopla, you might just catch a great basketball game. I know I did.

And because of that, I'll be braving the three-ring-circus again next season when Kobe and company come to town.

I'll just be sure to bring a girl next time so I can (hopefully!) make it on "Kiss Cam."

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:59 AM | Comments (1)

Defining the New With the Old

In today's game, former players complain about bad positioning and tackling on defense in football. My inclination is always to defend the "today's player" and see the view of the past player. In researching some of the former players, I noticed they played both offense and defense from little league to high school. They were starters and stars in college on both sides of the ball. My question to the old-timers is: did playing offense in college helped them become better defensive players in the pros? Today's players learn either offense or defense, but never both with some exceptions.

NFL legends like Dick Butkus, Jack Pardee, Ray Nitschke, Chuck Bednarik, and Lee Roy Jordan were linebackers who played offense, as well, from elementary school till college. Pardee and Nitschke played fullback in college, while Bednarik, Butkus, and Jordan played center. With the exception of Bednarik, these players became defensive specialists in the pros which gave them advantages concerning positioning, tendency situations, and movement. For instance, is the receiver, running back, or quarterback timid, injured, or could not move to a certain area? Likewise, each player broke down the offense and reacted to the situation accordingly. In essence, they knew when and how to make the tackle before the snap of the ball.

Due to this knowledge and ability, most linebackers in that period called their own plays with the exception of Lee Roy Jordan. When he played for the Dallas Cowboys, his defensive coach, Ernie Stautner, called the plays. Stautner studied opponents' offenses and tendencies from the week leading up to the game by film. Likewise, he set up a computer program on what teams did in situations on certain downs, whether they ran or passed the football. But in a playoff game against the 49ers, Lee Roy saw something in the backfield in what appeared to be a running play, but decided it was a pass play and setup the defense over Stautner's objections. The result was an interception to win the game.

The media of the time said, it was natural instincts and Lee Roy himself didn't know why he made that assumption. A close examination reveals that Lee Roy studied film like his coach. Yet, it was his experience as a center in college that helped him looked for tendencies and the confidence to make decisions. Considering that 11 other guys are at the line of scrimmage, Lee Roy noticed how a 49er running back kept his hand down during runs and on pass plays, lifted his fingers slightly before the snap of the ball. Hence, the decision to call pass and the ensuing interception.

The question becomes whether today's specialists would make that play or be in position to make that play? Should we expect them to do so when they are specialized to play one part of the line? I defend today's players, but understand the frustration of past players. The blame should go to those who put emphasis on player specialization instead of player development, which starts in elementary school through college. If it wasn't for development, yesterday's players might as well be today's players.

Posted by Davan Mani at 11:52 AM | Comments (1)

December 18, 2009

Sports Q&A: New Endorsements For Tiger

In the wake of the Tiger Woods scandal, Accenture has dropped its endorsement deal with Woods, and Gillette and Tag Hauer plan to limit Woods role in their advertising campaigns. Few doubt Woods' ability to rebound as a golfer, but will he be able to recover his marketability as an endorser and spokesperson?

If anyone thinks Woods won't, at some point, again be one of the most sought-after product endorsers, then he/she is probably living on a secluded island somewhere in Sweden. Of course Woods will regain his stature as product pitchman, but it will take time. But why should he wait for that? Why not capitalize on his marketability now, before the endorsement opportunities for an adulterous, scheming, superstar athlete fade?

We all know that just as soon as Woods wins another major, and he will, corporate America will be clamoring for his name on their product. No matter the circumstances, we all love a winner, or a pretty face. Has anyone ever heard of Kate Moss? She was photographed snorting cocaine in 2005 and had most, if not all, of her endorsements yanked. Now where is she? She's back on the cover of major magazines, and is still one of the world's top models. Of course, Woods wasn't caught doing cocaine, but 'blow' was, in fact, involved. But Woods' road to endorsement recovery should start now as opposed to later.

Woods could begin with a major deal as the sole celebrity spokesman for a telecommunications firm known as "Uchitel," which specializes in cell phones that automatically delete voice mail messages after they've been heard once and before they've somehow been intercepted by major news outlets.

Woods is already on board with Nike, and the introduction of his new "Adulterer" line of active wear would surely capitalize on the growing market of cheating spouses. "Adulterer" clothing is much like your typical jogging suit, just without pants.

In addition, Nike could roll out the Tiger Woods "A Game" sportswear collection. This exclusive line features Woods' signature "final round" red color on all short- and long-sleeve shirts, and each is adorned with a large, embroidered "A," unofficially known as the "Scarlett Letter."

Gatorade has already decided to discontinue its Tiger Woods sports drinks. Before Woods clears his reputation, a shrewd marketing executive could tap Woods to endorse the new "Fornicator-ade" sports drink. Of course, "Fornicator-ade" might want to steer clear of Gatorade's signature slogan, "Is it in you?" Then again, maybe "Fornicator-ade" could utilize an offshoot of that slogan, and have Woods say "Is it in you? How about you? You? You? You?" Woods would be perfect for this product. After all, no one's built up a thirst quite like Tiger Woods.

We can't forget about golf equipment. What golfer wouldn't want the Tiger Woods 88° wedge, guaranteed to get you out of any jam.

Also, there's the new Tiger Woods golf ball, standard with 368 dimples, one for each of Woods' "transgressions."

And who couldn't use a shatter-proof windshield? We all could, and what better place to have it installed than Maaco, newly endorsed by Woods.

"Icy Hot" Pain Reliever? This would be a golden opportunity for Woods to make a name for himself in the field of pain relief. As Woods could attest in his testimonial, juggling a career, a wife, a family, and numerous other affairs takes a toll on a body. "'Hot' for the frigid relationship at home. 'Cold' for the steamy relationships elsewhere."

Woods no longer endorses Buick, but everyone knows Woods drives Cadillacs. Naturally, Cadillac should have Woods speaking on their behalf, particularly their safety rating, which has recently been proven to withstand the wrath of trees, fire hydrants, and an angry, golf club-wielding wife. All this without airbags even deploying!

Everyone uses butter, and everyone would love to use butter with Woods' name on it. With the simple slogan, "Tiger Woods Butter: You'll Wanna Spread," it's bound to be the hit of the dairy aisle.

Watchmaker Tag Hauer has decided to remove some ads featuring Woods. That's too bad, but only for Tag Hauer. It would be a great time for Timex to jump in and slap a watch around Tiger's wrist. It would be great to hear Woods in a Timex commercial with the words "Timepiece, or time for a piece?"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:58 AM | Comments (1)

2009 Tennis Christmas Wish List

Happy holidays, everyone! For tennis fans, this is about the loneliest time of the year. The Davis Cup just ended, with Spain winning it handily over the Czech Republic. It pretty much salvaged the year for Rafael Nadal, as he was instrumental in securing the cup for Spain with two huge wins in the tie.

Other than the couple of charity events that go on during this time, professional tennis has taken a break. It's a great time to reflect on the year that was. As you know, this was a dream year for Roger Federer, if you forget about his loss in the U.S. Open final. Federer not only married his long-time girlfriend and partner, Mirka, but he won Roland Garros and Wimbledon to succeed Pete Sampras as the player with the most Grand Slam tournament titles in a career with 15. Then he captured the number one ranking for the year end with his victory in the Barclay's ATP World Tour final. Finally, add to that the birth of his twin daughters, Charlene Riva and Myla Rose, and you have a near perfect year. Okay, so he lost to Juan Martín del Potro at the U.S. Open. The guy can't be perfect, can he?

On the women's side, Serena Williams wound up on top of the heap after another season-ending championship final win over sister Venus in Doha. Serena completed a pretty good year, too, if you pretend she didn't blow up in the U.S. Open semifinal against Kim Clijsters and wind up losing that match and getting an $85K fine for doing it. Serena published her autobiography and also made an appearance on the Tyra Show (I know, I was there).

The one interesting ending note was that the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour had a season-ending championship for the new players and emerging stars. At the Commonwealth Bank Tournament of Champions, 10 of the second-tier players played in round-robin format for a $600K prize. Aravane Rezai captured the tournament.

To sum it all up, just about another typical year for men's and women's professional tennis. The year ended quietly, as there was almost no press coverage for either of the season-ending tournaments. Guess that is a good thing. Tiger Woods wishes his year ended as quiet.

Yes, I mentioned Tiger. Well, let us not forget that one of his best friends is Roger Federer. I can't help but wonder if Mirka is chasing Roger around the house like Elin did Tiger. I'm sure Mirka had a few conversations with Roger over the past few weeks. I also wonder if Mirka has forbidden Roger to hang with Tiger anymore. Hopefully there won't be any Roger surprises like we just got with Tiger.

For many years now, I've been bringing you my tennis Christmas wish list. This year will be no different. I'm sure Tiger has a Christmas list, but I'm thinking Santa just might have him on the "naughty" list this year. So, without further adieu, my list for 2009:

10) I'm hoping for Kim Clijsters to enjoy her holidays with her family, spend a few days hitting at my local club, and then jetting off to Australia and picking up right were she left off in NYC. May this holiday season see her rest and renew her fighting tennis spirit. The women's tour desperately needs that. Oh, and the Australian Open championship.

9) An incident-free 2010 for Stacey Allaster, Sony Ericsson WTA Tour CEO and Chairman. Larry Scott left the position mid-2009, and Stacey's first real test came at the U.S. Open with Serena William's outburst. When it was all done, the tour and Ms. Allaster gave Serena the largest fine ever on the tour and for a female professional athlete. Good job, but I'm hoping that Stacey will get a gift of a profitable and highly watchable 2010 tour year without any of the negative drama.

8) A winner from the UK for Wimbledon. Andy Murray will do nicely. It's been such a very long time since a homegrown champion held the cup high and proud. Andy Murray is good enough, experienced enough, and has the game. Maybe Father Christmas will bring all my British readers and friends a present this coming summer.

6) A healthy Rafael Nadal. I have always thought that his game was unnatural and placed too much stress on his arms and his legs. This year, for the first time, it showed. Rafa is still very, very young. If his body starts to give out this early, it would just be a shame. Hopefully when his family sings Feliz Navidad, included with it will be a special delivery with vibrant, injury-free, health for Rafa in 2010. And maybe another French title.

5) The return of Justine Henin to the women's tour. Santa, this is the one gift I would love. Kim Clijsters is back, and immediately dominated. Justine left way too early, and would be an amazing addition to the tour. There is a Wimbledon title waiting. So Santa, please?

4) A year without Mary Carillo, Mary Jo Fernandez, and Brad Gilbert in the booth at any major tournament. Sorry, but I'd love to see some new talent doing commentary. Mary Carillo is starting to wear on me, she doesn't bring anything. Brad, well, is living off his 15 minutes of fame as Andre Agassi's coach. Mary Jo, well, your post-match reaction and interview at the U.S. Open after Serena's clear, rule-violating outburst was to this journalist, pathetic. Let's add Cliff Drysdale to the mix. ESPN, USA, and any other network need to find new voices for the sport. With the exception of Bud Collins. Let's have more Bud, please.

3) A great year for the tennis industry. Racquet sales were down. Prince, Head, Wilson, and Babolat all felt the effects of the global economic crisis. Participation in tennis on the recreational level is rising. Those players aren't investing in a new stick every year like they used to. Niche companies like Vantage continue to hold ground with their special offerings, but even the smaller guys are finding it hard to grow. Bring a robust 2010 to Vantage, Power Angle, Avery, and all the niche companies and also to bring better years for the big four.

2) Better economy for the tournaments that are not part of the grand slam. The Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open will always do fine, even though the next year looks like they might not do as well as in 2008 or 2009. The announcement that the RCA Championships in Indianapolis, Indiana was up for sale and not coming back in 2010 says it all. Professional tennis stays interesting because it has always reached the fans with the smaller tournaments and seasons. I can't imagine the Aussie season without Auckland, the clay season without Monte Carlo, the grass season without the Stella Artois, and the U.S. summer hard court season without Indianapolis, Cincinnati, or Washington, DC. Let's hope that the powers that be all give us enough money this year to be able to support our local tournament.

1) Peace, love, joy, and prosperity to all the tennis fans who read about tennis here on Sports Central and who share their knowledge and opinion with me, Mert Ertunga, and the rest of the staff. My wish for you is that in 2010 you have health to play tennis whenever you can and the economic advantage to allow you to enjoy tennis for the great sport it is.

Happy holidays and happy New Year to all my readers. Enjoy your time with friends and family. I'll see you here again in 2010!

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:36 AM | Comments (4)

December 17, 2009

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 15

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+4)

With their 28-16 win over the Broncos last week, the Colts broke the NFL record for consecutive regular-season wins. Indy's 22nd straight win eclipsed the Patriots number of 21 set last year. On Thursday, the Colts will face a Jacksonville team fighting to hold on to a wild card playoff berth.

"We're one of the few barriers standing between the Colts and perfection," says Jack Del Rio. "And I know 27 people who will be wildly cheering for us to upset Indianapolis. No, I'm not talking about the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins. I'm talking about our home crowd."

"Anyway, slowing the Colts requires you to confuse Peyton Manning. He's always a threat to change the play at the line. But does he really change the play, or are those wild gyrations and signals a bunch of baloney? We know Manning's a 'histrionics' buff, but sometimes, I think his actions are nothing more that a histrionics bluff."

Manning and the Colts are 13-0, and have clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Maintaining momentum is the order of business now.

"That's right," says Manning. "We've got our goals clearly in sight. You could say we have our 'blinders' on, but really, we're wearing those so we can't see a looming matchup with our playoff nemesis San Diego down the road."

"As for the Jaguars, we know they, and their fans, will be fired up for this one. I hear the Jags have already announced a 'sellout' for the game. Now, does that mean all seats will be full, or does it mean I'm coming to town, because God knows, I've lent my name to the marketing of a number of products? You may have seen me in my latest shill job, the Sony HD commercial with Justin Timberlake. What's so amazing about this ad? They've got me pushing product, and I don't even have a speaking line! I thought about calling an 'audible' and dropping a clever line. Let's face it. This commercial is not funny, and it just goes to show that Timberlake is only funny on Saturday Night Live."

Jim Caldwell has stated that his "healthy" starters will play, a statement the ambiguity of which is almost as amazing as the fact that Caldwell actually said something.

After the Jaguars race to a 17-13 halftime lead, Manning and his cohorts spend halftime doing what most Indiana pro athletes do to get going — passing around a bottle of Hennessey. Unfortunately, they find it doesn't quite work as well for them as it did for Ron Artest.

Jacksonville wins, 26-24.

Dallas @ New Orleans (-7)

The Saints are 13-0 and well on their way to capturing home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Cowboys are 8-5 and looking for their first win in December after losing to the Chargers 20-17 in Dallas. Are the chips falling neatly into place for the Saints to move to 14-0?

"We try not to mention the term 'perfect storm' here in New Orleans," says Reggie Bush. "But playing Dallas in December is almost as sure of a win as playoff them in the playoffs. Especially now that Tony Romo is doing the holding on kicks. Of course, they say things are bigger in Texas. With the Cowboys in town, New Orleans just got bigger, and easier. And I'm sure the Cowboys won't feel quite as home in the primitive Superdome as they do in the luxurious confines of Cowboys Stadium. Heck, you could view the huge video screen in 3D last week. You won't see three 'Ds' in the Superdome, although you most likely will see three 'Ls.'"

Right now, Dallas holds the No. 6 seed in the playoffs, but that position will be hard to maintain considering their remaining schedule. After their date in New Orleans, Dallas goes to Washington, then closes out the year by hosting the Eagles.

"We've got a chance to make history," says Wade Phillips, "by surprising people. The game against Philadelphia will be crucial. That's a winnable game. Heck, it's in January."

"As for me, all I'm asking for is a little respect. R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Take care, TCB. Realistically, though, with our December history, I should be singing 'D-E-F-E-A-T-S. Take care, J-O-B. If we don't make the playoffs, Jerry Jones may sock it to me by giving me the boot."

Saints win, 34-23 and remain undefeated. In Roy Williams' alternate reality world of "should haves," Dallas is undefeated and December has been stricken from the calendar.

Cleveland @ Kansas City (+1)

Cleveland's 13-6 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers was a huge emotional lift, for the team, for the city of Cleveland, and for head coach Eric Mangini. The Browns dominated the Steelers, sacking Ben Roethlisberger eight times, while rushing for 171 yards.

"We beat the Steelers by playing Steeler football," says Mangini. "Shoot, somebody's got to play Steeler football, because Pittsburgh sure isn't. In the Dawg Pound, you could say we put a collar on 'unleashing hell.'"

"Now, is this one victory enough to keep me around? I guess that will be up to Mike Holmgren, who's possibly the next general manager here in Cleveland. They've rolled out the red carpet for Cleveland's potential czar. I can't tell you what an honor it would be to work for him; fans tell me I would be just as honored to be fired by him. I think that's an example of 'czar'-casm."

Kansas City's Matt Cassell has struggled this year, with 13 interceptions and only 13 touchdowns. He tossed four of those picks last week in a 16-10 loss to the Bills.

"Playing against a former Patriots assistant coach is probably the closest I'll ever get to New England again," says Cassel. "It seems, though, that when former Patriots assistants step out from under the Bill Belichick umbrella, all hell breaks loose. From what I hear, Mangini deserves what's coming to him. According to players like Jamal Lewis, Mangini's a 'scrooge.' I bet his idea of a Christmas movie is Die Hard."

Brady Quinn outplays Cassel, and by "outplay," I mean he has fewer turnovers, proving that the "Quinn" rules the "Cassel."

Cleveland wins, 17-13.

Atlanta @ NY Jets (-6)

Leg injuries sidelined Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez last week, but both will likely start on Sunday when the 6-7 Falcons face the 7-6 Jets. Ryan has battled a nagging turf toe injury for several weeks, while Sanchez sat as a precautionary measure after injuring his knee on a head first slide two weeks ago against Buffalo.

"I was certainly stunned, and not happy," says Sanchez, "when Rex Ryan informed me that not only would I not be starting, I wouldn't even be making the trip to Tampa last week. He not only threw me a curveball, he threw me a 'slider', as well. I was really looking forward to the trip, not only to play, but to practice my sliding techniques with Ricky Henderson in an early spring training session."

The injury to Ryan, as well as Michael Turner's ankle injury, has sent the Falcons season spiraling downward. After a fast start, Atlanta has dropped five of seven, and although they're still technically alive in the playoff hunt, a loss would practically, if not mathematically, eliminate them from contention.

"If we could have remained healthy," says Mike Smith, "I feel we'd be on much more solid playoff footing. But Ryan's and Turner's injuries have been a 'bone of contention' for our playoff hopes. And speaking of 'bones,' Jonathan Babineaux got caught smoking one while driving near Atlanta last week. Now it looks like we'll have another player in rehab."

Jets win, 24-21.

Miami @ Tennessee (-3)

While Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Brett Favre have dominated the MVP talk this year, Chris Johnson's has made a case that he should be in the discussion as well. Johnson leads the NFL in rushing with 1,626 yards, 347 more than his closest pursuer.

"Who says the MVP should be limited to aging white quarterbacks," says Johnson, "besides the aging white voters? I'm putting my foot in the door for the MVP vote. You could say I'm adding a little 'sole' to the race. I've already been guaranteed two votes from owner Bud Adams, who's great at 'sticking up' for his players and team."

"With our playoff hopes slim, some of us may be looking ahead to 2010. Not me. I'm looking towards 2,000, yards that is. I've got three games to get 374 yards. That will put me in elite company."

At 7-6, the Dolphins trail the Patriots by a single game in the NFC East, and could still win the division, depending on several factors, most notably Randy Moss' effort. A loss in Tennessee, however, would likely put a damper on any playoff plans for Miami.

"Hey, we're just like the Patriots," says Ricky Williams. "We can't rely on Moss for anything. But, what I wouldn't give to have Moss on my team. Moss quitting is way better than Ted Ginn, Jr. trying."

"Now, I have to caution Johnson on the perils of having a career year. I led the NFL in rushing in 2002. Soon after that, I retired from football, with the ironic excuse that I was 'burned out.' But once the smoke cleared, I came back at full strength. I just want to tell Chris not to walk away from the sport in your prime. There's a better time to do that. It's called 4:20."

Titans win, 27-17.

San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-6)

After a 45-38 win at Giants Stadium, the Eagles took the lead in the NFC East and assumed the identity of this week's "hottest team in the NFC East," which typically changes on a weekly basis, and may soon include the Redskins. DeSean Jackson scored on a 70-yard punt return and on a 60-yard pass from Donovan McNabb, and, in doing so, Jackson tied the NFL record for most TDs of 50 yards or more, with 8.

"As you can see by his enthusiasm," says Donovan McNabb, "DeSean loves to play the game — when he's conscious. And he's got a great relationship with Andy Reid. Anyone who can chest bump Coach Reid and stick the landing is a player in my book. DeSean's just like a son to Andy. Like Andy's sons, DeSean's always a threat to 'score.' Why don't we nickname him 'The Junkie?'"

With their 24-9 win over Arizona on Monday, the 49ers swept the Cardinals and pulled to within two games of the lead in the NFC West. San Francisco would need to win their remaining three games and pray for a monumental collapse by the Cardinals.

"If their grip on the division is anything like their grip on the ball Monday night," says Mike Singletary, "then we're in business. Sure, it's a long shot, but in the NFL, anything's possible. Like, for example, the fact that a team wins a game 45-38 and has praise heaped upon them, yet no one raises the questions that should arise when 38 points are surrendered."

Eagles win, 24-20.

New England @ Buffalo (+7)

Two weeks ago, Tom Brady and Gisele Bundchen welcomed a new member to their family with the birth of their first child. It was Brady's second son; his first was the result of his union with actress Bridget Moynahan. Last week, Brady realized that there's another "baby" in his life, Randy Moss, who pouted his way to a 1-catch day against the Panthers last week, a catch that was fumbled.

"How dare the Panthers say Moss 'quit,'" says Brady. "That's just not true. The only thing Randy's 'quit' is shaving. Of course, we all know Randy takes plays off. Plays off? Plays off? That's right, Jim Mora, Sr., I'm talking 'bout 'plays off.'"

"But seriously, let's not go all 'Joe Buck' and blow this Moss incident out of proportion. This incident probably doesn't even make the top 10 list of 'Randy Moments.' I bet Mike Tice didn't even raise an eyebrow."

"Is Randy upset because he was sent home from practice for being a few minutes late? Did he think that was unfair? Maybe. If so, that would explain his actions, because he was a few minutes late on that route in which I threw the interception."

While Moss pouts in New England, Terrell Owen has been remarkably well-behaved in Buffalo. Owens has not complained, and has done what no one else has been able, or willing, to do — shower praise upon quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Of course, T.O.'s much better at showering praise on himself. He recently signed a modeling contract with the Wilhelmina agency, citing the need to take advantage of his good looks.

"For once," says Owens, "you can call me a 'model' citizen. And, with apologies to Van Halen and their song 'Panama,' Moss has 'zero discipline.' I bet if Randy had a Sharpie marker stashed in his pants, he'd be too lazy to take it out to sign a football."

"Of course, I'm looking forward to this modeling gig. And if they give me a Dallas 'star' to stand on, I'll strike any pose they want me to, as long as Roy Williams isn't around."

Intent on coddling Moss at every cost, Bill Belichick takes serious measures to please more, none more drastic than dressing Moss in Wes Welker's No. 83 jersey. Brady targets Moss 8 times on the Pats' first drive, which culminates in a 10-yard TD pass to Moss, who is pelted by a shower of Pampers diapers in the end zone.

New England wins, 27-13.

Arizona @ Detroit (+10½)

Any momentum the Cardinals achieved in beating the Vikings last week was lost in San Francisco, where Arizona lost 24-9 to the 49ers. Arizona committed 7 turnovers and was penalized 11 times. The loss prevented the Cardinals from clinching the NFC West. Now they lead the 49ers by two games with three to play.

"Hey, we wouldn't be the first to lose our heart in San Francisco," says Kurt Warner, "because that was a gutless performance. After the win against Minnesota, many speculated that Monday night's game would be a 'letdown' game for us. They were right; our offense letdown our defense. With 7 turnovers, you have to question our effort. For me, it was a lot like donating at church — we only gave ten percent. As such, we were fit to be tithed."

Arizona wins, 31-14.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh (-1)

After consecutive losses to the Raiders and Browns, the Steelers have lost five in a row after a 6-2 start, and now face a steep, uphill climb to make the postseason and defend their Super Bowl title. A win over the red-hot Packers is imperative to keep those hopes alive. It won't be easy, though. Green Bay will arrive in Pittsburgh with the NFL's second-ranked defense, intent on extinguishing the Steelers' playoff aspirations.

"This must be a case of the 'Super Bowl hangover,'" says Aaron Rodgers. "Heck, anytime you drink a case, you're bound to have a hangover. Anyway, the operative word in 'hangover' is 'over.' The Steelers may have just played themselves out of the playoffs. We know the 'Terrible Towels' will be waving on Sunday. Most likely, they'll be waving 'goodbye.'"

Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger realizes than the Steelers playoff hopes are tenuous, at best. That didn't seem to motivate them last week in Cleveland, but a newfound sense of urgency may be the panacea for a frantic playoff push.

"Yep, we've been listening to a lot of Dire Straits lately," says Roethlisberger. "Unfortunately, it's been the song 'So Far Away.' But we still have a chance for the postseason, plus we'll be defending our home field, so there could be a turf war going on here. There could be another 'turf' war taking place, as well, which would be an argument between Rodgers and I over who's' been sacked the most."

Pittsburgh wins, 22-20.

Chicago @ Baltimore (-10)

With a 48-3 demolition of the Lions, the Ravens are obviously practicing a "take no prisoners" approach to the stretch drive in search of a playoff berth. The Ravens piled up a whopping 308 yards on the ground, and will likely stay run-happy against the Bears, who gave up 146 yards rushing to the Packers last week.

"Yes, we plan to run the ball," says John Harbaugh. "That's what we do best. And until Joe Flacco finds the aim he showed last year, that's what we'll continue to do. It's not often you ask your quarterback to 'play like a rookie,' but that's what we want from Joe."

"Defensively, we know Jay Cutler's psyche is fragile. We'll test his mettle. That's the case anytime you see Ray Lewis staring at you from across the line of scrimmage. Ray has an innate ability to look in a man's eyes, see the fear, process it, and determine if that man has the fortitude to overcome it. Peyton Manning has that ability, but I think Ray has his doubts about Cutler's manhood.

"Pussy galore," quoth the Raven. "Pussy galore."

Ravens win, 27-20.

Houston @ St. Louis (+10)

The Rams were pounded last week 47-7 in Tennessee, and at 1-12, seem well on their way to another high draft pick and salary cap hell. The Rams need help on both sides of the ball. The Rams have yet to find consistency at quarterback, and their defense has surrendered 361 points, second-worst in the league.

"Our defense usually has so many holes," says defensive coordinator Ken Flajole, "you can feel the 'draft.' Ironically, we try to use the draft to fill the holes from the draft. But we may have to change our draft strategy, and maybe look at someone other than the sons of famous professional athletes. First, it was Chris Long, son of Raider great Howie Long. Last year, it was James Laurinaitis, son of pro wrestling legend Road Warrior Animal. Long has been disappointing, but Laurinaitis has become a solid linebacker. That's not surprising. Everyone knows pro wrestlers are tougher than football players, and they make better governors of Minnesota."

The Texans snapped a four-game slide with a convincing 34-7 win over the Seahawks, a game dominated by Andre Johnson, who caught 11 passes for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns. As is often the case with the Texans, it's "too little, too late." Again, an 8-8 or 9-7 record is just not good enough.

"I still think we're one of the better teams in the NFL," says Matt Schaub, "at adjusting our goals midway through the season. We've been the 'trendy pick' to make the playoffs for about for years now, which is, in itself, a 'trend.' And we're just as shocked as our fans that we can't take that 'next step.' For us, the Super Bowl is out of the question, but the 'stupor' bowl is always a possibility."

Houston wins, 34-17.

Oakland @ Denver (-11½)

Despite losing in Indianapolis, the Broncos still have the inside track to a wildcard berth. At 8-5, Denver is at least one game up on the other AFC playoff hopefuls, and, with home games against the Raiders and Chiefs sandwiching a visit to Philadelphia, the Broncos course to a wild card spot looks rather smooth.

"You wouldn't believe the things that are said when the Raiders and Broncos are on the field at the same time," says Josh McDaniels. "It's almost as bad as me haranguing my team on the sidelines as television cameras capture it all. You know, they call me the 'Road Runner,' because whenever my mouth opens, all you hear is 'beep beep.'"

The Raiders will face their hated AFC West rivals with their quarterback situation in turmoil. Bruce Gradkowski suffered two knee injuries, and Tom Cable has to make a tough choice between JaMarcus Russell and Charlie Frye as his starter.

"But that's not even the juiciest story," says Al Davis. "Randy Hanson is back at work for the Raiders. He's now an hourly employee, which means he has to punch in but can't be punched out."

"Cable has made his choice, and he's going with Frye. Obviously, Tom has no faith in JaMarcus, but he's got Charlie 'pride.'"

The Broncos rush for 201 yards, and Denver wins, 27-9.

Cincinnati @ San Diego (-7)

Those in the know remember the 1981 AFC Championship as the most famous Bengals/Chargers game in history. The Bengals won 27-7 in Cincinnati as wind chill temperatures reached –37 degrees. While the stakes aren't nearly as high and the temperature will be over 100 degrees warmer, the outcome in San Diego will likely play a role in determining playoff seeding.

"Wow. That was over 28 years ago," says Chad Ochocinco, "and one name ago. I was only four at the time, and I was already too big for my britches, but I definitely had a lot of mouth to grow in to. But that was a historic game, one which set the standard for hazardous playing conditions, and one which finally quantified the term 'colder than a witch's titty.'"

"As for Carson Palmer's elbow, he assures me it's fine. In fact, he just greased it. But many people still have questions as to the viability of the Bengals. Well, there's a simple explanation: when you practically clinch the division in week ten, you're bound to have a letdown or two, or more."

The Chargers have won eight in a row after defeating the Cowboys 20-17 in Dallas last Sunday. While the Cowboys struggle in December, the Chargers haven't lost since 2005 in December.

"If you listen to the words of Tila Tequila," says Philip Rivers, "then December to the Chargers is a lot like her relationship with Shawne Merriman — it doesn't miss a 'beat.'"

Is this the year it all falls into place for the Chargers? It all looks good so far. Should they capture the number two seed in the AFC (and it looks like they will) they won't have to play anywhere near cold weather. And they always match up well with the Colts.

San Diego wins, 26-21.

Tampa Bay @ Seattle (-7)

If there was a topical "Christmas Carol" by Charles Dickens for this game, the Jon Gruden would likely play two roles in it, the "Ghost of Coaches Past" and the "Ghost of Coaches Future." Gruden, the former coach of the Buccaneers, has been rumored to be Mike Holgren's choice to coach the Seahawks, should Holmgren become general manager.

"That's pure conjecture," says Jim Mora. "I equate the Holmgren/Gruden rumors to some of Gruden's overexcited ramblings on Monday Night Football — some things said are not necessarily true, and are often just outright bluster. Anyway, it looks like Holmgren's heading to Cleveland, to either take the job, or make Seattle think he'll take the job."

The Bucs are 1-12, with their lone win coming over the Packers in Week 9. Since then, Tampa has lost five in a row.

"That was a huge win for us," says Morris. "Without it, we'd be winless, and we'd have to face the embarrassment of being called 'Null and Crossbones.'"

Seahawks win, 27-10.

Minnesota @ Carolina (+7)

Playoff teams last year, both the Panthers and Vikings looked to be teams a quarterback away from taking that huge step from a mere playoff team to one capable of winning it all. The Vikes filled that void by convincing Brett Favre to come to Minnesota, while the Panthers chose to stay with Jake Delhomme.

"Hey, you know how it is in Minnesota," says Brad Childress. "Whether it's a Hall of Fame quarterback or talent for a Lake Minnetonka cruise, recruiting is a big deal."

"We can't take this game lightly. First of all, we need a win to clinch the number two NFC seed. Secondly, I'll be darned if we'll have some two bit Panther defensive backs questioning our effort. Besides, we need all the rest for Brett Favre we can get. Hopefully, Brett can get a solid two weeks rest, and hopefully, in that time, he won't decide to play for another team."

Minnesota wins, 30-17.

NY Giants @ Washington (+3)

Despite out-gaining the Eagles 512 to 374, the Giants lost a 45-38 shootout to the Eagles, giving up several big plays and losing four fumbles. New York dropped to 7-6, but is still is in fairly decent shape, with a Week 16 game against Carolina before closing in Minnesota against the Vikings who are likely to be resting starters.

"I'm a big fan of 'resting starters,'" says Tom Coughlin. "I call it 'benching.' But I'm really disappointed in our defense. It's really an embarrassment to be known as the 'OMG-Men.' I've seen better defense from the Stanford band. Defense used to be this team's 'bread and butter.' Now, it appears that our defense is nothing more than 'toast.'"

The 4-9 Redskins may be the most improved team in the NFL from the beginning of the season. And, looking ahead to 2010, the 'Skins will likely contend in what will surely be a tight, four-team race for the NFC East crown.

"It's true what Miley Cyrus says," says Jim Zorn. "There is 'Parity in the NFL.' I just hope Daniel Snyder doesn't ruin the continuity and progress we've made by opening his big mouth about anything. When Snyder talks, people don't listen, they snicker. Hopefully, Snyder won't disturb this groove. We're making a name for ourselves. There's been 'The Hogs,' 'The Smurfs,' and 'The Fun Bunch' in Washington already. Now we've got a group we like to call 'The Bingo-Fo's.'"

Washington wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:54 AM | Comments (0)

December 16, 2009

Bowling For NFL Draft Picks

The great thing about college bowl season is that not only do you get some great games, but it provides an ancillary benefit of being the last college stage for NFL draft-bound players.

If you look back to last year, there was the monster 8-catch, 217-yard, 3-TD explosion by North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks, now of the New York Giants.

In 2007, there was Rutgers running back Ray Rice torching Ball State for 280 yards and 4 touchdowns.

And in the 2006 Liberty Bowl between Houston and South Carolina, you had current Eagles backup quarterback Kevin Kolb throwing to current Rams wide receiver Donnie Avery for the Cougars, while on the other side, Vikings WR Sidney Rice caught 8 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown while current Chiefs kicker Ryan Succop (then a sophomore) kicked 5 extra points and a 45-yard field goal for the Gamecocks.

So if you're an NFL fan and South Florida/Northern Illinois in the International Bowl doesn't exactly strike you as appointment television, you might want to reconsider that Bulls junior defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is rated as a top-15 prospect and could be rushing the quarterback for your team next fall.

With that in mind, here are some of the guys you might not have seen play, but should definitely watch out for this bowl season:

Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State (New Mexico Bowl vs. Wyoming, Dec. 19)

Mathews is by no means a national name, but he gets the job done — 1,664 yards rushing (second nationally to Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart) with 6.8 yard-per-rush average and 17 touchdowns this season as a junior. And that wasn't just against cream puffs. He put up 234 and 3 TD at Boise State, 145 and a TD at Cincinnati, and 173 and 3 TD at Illinois (more than any Big Ten back put up against the Illini this season).

The New Mexico Bowl is the first bowl game of the season and there won't be a damn thing else on opposite it (4:30 PM Eastern Saturday). You might as well check out Mathews and perhaps get a head start on a possible fantasy football sleeper for 2010.

Brian Price, DT, UCLA (EagleBank Bowl vs. Temple, Dec. 29)

Defensive tackle is a loaded position in the draft, especially at the top with Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy, but there will be value later in the round with the junior Price, a dominant force on the Bruin defense that ranked third in the Pac-10 in scoring defense. He led the Pac-10 in tackles for loss with 22.5 stops behind the line, including seven sacks. An All-American and two-time All-Pac-10 selection, Price has 43.5 tackles for loss in his three-year career.

Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green (Humanitarian Bowl vs. Idaho, Dec. 30)

Barnes won't show up at the top of anybody's draft boards this April, but the 23-year-old senior had 138 catches for 1,551 yards and 16 touchdowns — this season. Depending on how he runs at the combine in February, Barnes could end up anywhere between the third and sixth rounds in the NFL draft. And then he'll show up to camp and be the subject of a bunch of "who is this rookie making all these catches?" stories.

Bonus note: Barnes won't be the first player in this game to get picked in the NFL draft. Idaho senior guard Mike Iupati is an All-American and, at 6'6" and 300 pounds, will likely be an early-round pick.

Sean Weatherspoon, LB, and Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri (Texas Bowl vs. Navy, Dec. 31)

With the step back for the Tigers program this year, Weatherspoon hasn't had the opportunity to shine on the national stage. But what he has done is show up every week and make plays. Of his team-leading 104 tackles this year, an amazing 70 were of the solo variety (most in the Big 12). Against a Navy offense that ranked third in the nation in rushing offense at 272.5 yards per game, the back-to-back All-Big 12 First Team linebacker is going to have ample opportunity to put his talents on display.

As for Alexander, he won't get drafted as high as former teammate Jeremy Maclin did last year, but he did lead the conference in receptions (107) and receiving touchdowns (13), and led the nation in receiving yards with 1,644. At 6'5", he's going to be a nightmare for the undersized Navy secondary. Expect him to have a monster game in the Texas Bowl and to find his way into somebody's red zone package (at least) on Sundays next season.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford (Sun Bowl vs. Oklahoma, Dec. 31)

Everybody knows Gerhart's name thanks to the Heisman hype, but I'm guessing much of the country east of the Mississippi has yet to actually see him play (because if he played in the SEC, he would have run away with the award).

Gerhart isn't the kind of guy whose measurables will play well at the combine, but the tape doesn't lie. He's an absolute beast with the ball in his hands (led the nation in rushing yards and touchdowns), is more than smart enough (you try taking integral calculus at Stanford), and is athletic enough to have been the starting center fielder on the Stanford baseball team. Some team is going to get a steal in the second or third round.

(And for some extra fun, check out the blocks thrown by Stanford senior fullback Owen Marecic. He'll be a late rounder who will break some heads come NFL camps next season.)

Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati (Sugar Bowl vs. Florida, Jan. 1)

There are a million story lines for this game before you get to Gilyard, anything from the love/hate affair with Tim Tebow to the defection of former Bearcats coach Brian Kelly. But of all the players in this game, and all the NFL talent on the Gators, Gilyard may steal the show. His battle with Florida CB Joe Haden, a high first-round prospect, might just be the best one-on-one match-up of any game this bowl season.

The Cincinnati offensive line will have a hell of a time keeping quarterback Tony Pike off his backside, but Gilyard will be heard from in this game. And then he will be heard from next season in the NFL. Whether it's as a receiver or in the return game, the kid just makes plays.

Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan (GMAC Bowl vs. Troy, Jan. 6)

Personally, I find it annoying that you would have a second-rate bowl like this after all the big bowls except the National Championship. It's like if the NFL decided to play a preseason game the week between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl. (Well, I guess they are with the Pro Bowl, but whatever.)

Regardless, this game will be played, and the senior LeFevour will cap a career that has seen him throw for more than 13,000 yards, including a 48-to-12 touchdown-to-interception rate over the past two seasons. With size at 6'3" and 240 pounds and an accurate arm (71.1% this year), he will find his way onto an NFL roster next season.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

Observations in NBA Coaching

My favorite part watching a basketball game is to see how coaches communicate during timeouts. The brains of these coaches work quickly to come up with a play or an idea without them moving a single step. You see them rubbing their chin, writing on the clipboard, and hovering each other without muttering a syllable.

There are four types of coaching personalities that I notice: a dictator with a a messenger staff that answer to him, a star coach with a subordinate staff who know their roles, a leader who lets others shine in crucial moments, and an intense buddy system where one is looking out for the other.

The media likes to talk about players who are selfish and self-centered in sports. But I remember a quote from former coach Al McGuire: "A team should be an extension of a coach's personality." For instance, Orlando's Stan Van Gundy does not communicate with his assistants. He says, they follow. He does all the coaching and his staff just sit there and listen during timeouts. Yet his team got to the finals because of his attitude in believing that they can win. However, in the NBA Finals, his players in close games took bad shots at crucial moments. Stan lashed out on his staff and the players, but he didn't lash out on himself. To me, Van Gundy lost faith in himself. I mean, how did the players become so selfish so quickly?

On the other hand, Boston coach Doc Rivers communicated with his assistants from the beginning of the season with the 2008 Celtics. Doc got his assistants to share the pressure of coaching throughout the season. Sometimes they made good decisions and sometimes they made bad decisions. At playoff time, they reacted better and made clutch decisions at crucial times. Despite a close call in the first round against the Atlanta Hawks, the Celtics responded to playoff pressure because they trusted the head coach and his assistants to come up ready in all situations instead of expecting one lead coach to deal with all situations.

Meanwhile, Phil Jackson's teams always seem to win on the teamwork concept of coaches, but Phil seems to be more of a star than a leader. It reflects on the court. Michael Jordan and the Bulls. Kobe Bryant/Shaquille O'Neal and the Lakers. Now just Kobe. He gets the right coaches and let them do their jobs in a subordinate manner. He always seems to be wanting to make all the decisions so he can get the credit and glory. I'm bothered by Jackson's stubbornness in his losses in 2004 and in 2008 NBA Finals of not trying to defend the pick 'n roll by playing zone. I couldn't understand why his assistants didn't get him to adjust his defensive philosophy, but then I realized that it was "his way or the highway" persona when it comes to making adjustments. Can't argue with 10 championships under his reign.

On the other hand, winning and wins-losses are reflected on the head coach, not on the assistants. Likewise, if a great player is injured, it really doesn't matter. Sometimes you don't have many star players, but players who just work hard together like buddies. Jerry Sloan does a great job with his buddy system of assistant Phil Johnson in Utah. They each know what the other is thinking and react the same way. Both are very tense in every game, but can keep each other in check without burning each other out.

Another example is Larry Brown and his assistant coach brother, Herb, of the Charlotte Bobcats. When Larry had Herb as his assistant, they went to the NBA Finals and won a championship in 2004 with Detroit. The result is players who play hard for each other with intensity.

During timeouts, I look to see how the players respond to their coach. For instance, do I see a coach exude the "I'm holier than you" or "I'm the messiah and I'll die for you" attitude when talking to players? Likewise, do players turn their heads away or feel confused about what the coach has to say? In the next instance, do assistant coaches either step in or stay in their seats, looking at the court? Finally, do coaches communicate to each other when the team is playing well or when they're not? Maybe a little bit of both? There is no wrong way to coach, but as Al McGuire said, "A team should be an extension of a coach's personality."

Posted by Davan Mani at 11:46 AM | Comments (2)

December 15, 2009

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Cris Collinsworth continues to have a very casual relationship with reality. "That was at least five seconds." NBC's timer counts 4.2. Dude, all you have to do is say "about" instead of "at least!" Or four instead of five! Do you know what "at least" means?

* Progress from Jon Gruden, though. "Arguably" and "one of the best" rather than simply "the best" is a welcome improvement. Thanks, Jon.

* The NFL's ongoing work on concussions is too little, too late — but it's also better late than never. It still feels more like a PR move than a genuine interest in player safety, though.

* Ron Winter looked so cold on Thursday night, I wasn't sure he would make it through the game. He looked like at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark, when everyone's faces are melting.

* Sign of the Apocalypse: the Pittsburgh Steelers in shotgun on 3rd-and-short. In 40 mph winds. That's awesome coaching.

***

Let's be honest: the defending champions are done. There is no remotely realistic scenario in which the Steelers make the playoffs at this point. There are problems on offense. The team allowed 8 sacks on Thursday night. Some of those were Big Ben's fault — even after all his injuries, he still won't throw the ball away. Ben is both adamant and defensive about this point. I still remember the snide post-game interview he did last season after breaking a tackle and scrambling around before throwing a game-winning touchdown: "I guess I just hold the ball too long." Yeah, Ben, you do. Sometimes he makes great plays like that, but more often, it ends up like we saw against Cleveland. That needlessly costs the team yards, and it puts the quarterback at risk of injury because he's getting hit so often. This isn't all Roethlisberger, though. Pittsburgh's offensive line did not show up this week. In particular, center Justin Hartwig and right tackle Willie Colon did not have good games.

Beyond the players, though, I think there's a problem in the philosophy here. You've heard from a number of pundits that the Steelers have gotten away from their traditional identity as a tough, grind-it-out, running-and-defense group. Roethlisberger passed for more than twice as many yards this week (201) as Brady Quinn (90), with a much higher passer rating (75.1-48.1). That doesn't take the sacks into account, but clearly, Big Ben had the more productive night. And yet, Pittsburgh's offense was totally ineffective and the Browns won. The NFL is more about passing than ever before, but you still have to run to be successful, and the Steelers never committed to the run. It was a diversion rather than a real part of the gameplan. That is not a recipe for success, especially in unfavorable weather.

There are also problems on defense. Not as many, nor as obvious: the Steelers still rank among the top 10 in both yards and points allowed. The biggest issue is that they're not forcing turnovers. Pittsburgh is actually -5 this season in turnovers, and only the Browns have fewer interceptions. Troy Polamalu has missed 3/4 of the season, and he still leads the team in picks.

Finally, there are problems on special teams. They're last in the league in kickoff touchbacks and have allowed 4 KR TDs. Josh Cribbs' 55-yard punt return to the Steeler 8-yard line was probably the definitive play of the game. Cribbs was also the only offensive player to make much of a splash in this defense-dominated game.

People talk about a jinx for Super Bowl losers, but it's hit the winners almost as hard. In the seven years since the league expanded to 32 teams, the Super Bowl winner has made the next season's playoffs only four times, the loser only once. That's a combined 5/14, less than average. There are several reasons for this trend, including coincidence and bad luck. But the main one is injuries. If you play in the Super Bowl, the season doesn't end until February, more than a month after most teams are done. That's an extra month of practices, a month of recuperation time lost and surgeries delayed, and an extra 3-4 games in which to get hurt. Pittsburgh's struggles this year are obviously about more than missing Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith, but those are big losses to overcome.

This is why most football fans oppose an 18-game schedule: it would lead to more injuries and shorten the careers of our favorite players. For now, the Week 14 rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. New Orleans Saints [2] — Remember the 2007 Patriots? Of course you do, that was only two years ago. They destroyed everyone at the beginning of the season, and probably played the best half-season in NFL history, opening 8-0 and outscoring their opponents 331-127. They faded down the stretch, eking out a 16-0 regular season but winning half of their last eight games by four points or less. This year's Saints came out on fire, won all of their first six games by double-digits, outscored adversaries 238-127. Since then, five of their seven victories have been by 10 points or less. In the last month, they've beaten 1-12 St. Louis, 4-9 Washington, and 6-7 Atlanta by a combined 11 points. They're 21st in yards allowed and 18th in points allowed. They're slowing down; this is not the same team we saw in the first six weeks.

2. Indianapolis Colts [1] — Won their 22nd straight regular-season game, an all-time record. I worry about Peyton Manning, who has thrown multiple interceptions in four of the last five games. His INT/gm rate has almost tripled in the last month. On Sunday, Manning got off to an awesome start (13-of-19, 144 yards, 3 TD) before losing his accuracy, tossing a season-high 3 picks, and finishing with a line only a fantasy football owner could love: 20-42, 220 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT. I still think the Colts are better than the Saints, but they're ranked second because I also think they're going to start resting starters next week, a month before their first playoff game. If Peyton only plays for a quarter against Jacksonville, I'm going to rank them in the 20s next week. Seriously. If they're not trying to win, that's an accurate assessment of their power.

3. San Diego Chargers [3] — Probably should be ranked first. I don't think anyone has played better in the last month. The Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a win next week, and can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Denver loss. That would also lock up a first-round bye. San Diego got a quietly strong performance from its ailing defense this week. I seldom predict individual games, because I am terrible at it, but I believe the Chargers will beat Cincinnati by double-digits in Week 15.

4. Green Bay Packers [5] — Can clinch the playoffs with a win and a Giants loss. Green Bay leads the NFL in turnover differential and ranks among the top 10 in yards, points, yards allowed, and points allowed. The defense continues to develop. Charles Woodson deservingly gets the most attention, but safety Nick Collins makes an awful lot of plays. The Packers have won five games in a row.

5. Tennessee Titans [6] — Don't have a realistic path to the playoffs, which I'm sure is a relief to other AFC teams. In order to qualify, Tennessee would need to win all of its remaining contests, and the Jaguars, Jets, and Ravens would all have to lose at least two of their remaining three games. Kerry Collins played well this week in relief of the injured Vince Young, who is questionable for next week. Second-year RB Chris Johnson is having a historic season. Emmitt Smith, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk never had a season this good.

6. Arizona Cardinals [4] — Pretty obvious letdown after their huge win over Minnesota in Week 13. During the MNF broadcast, Ron Jaworski said of Kurt Warner's Hall of Fame chances, "I don't know who those doubters are, but they oughtta get a clue." Here's my argument against Warner: he's only had three seasons as a full-time starter: 1999, 2001, and 2008. Look it up, this is only his fourth season with at least 12 starts. Some of that is injury, but Warner was benched in 2003, 2004, and 2006. He has great efficiency statistics, but he's played with Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin. All those guys were great without Warner, and there's no question they make him look better. Does this mean Warner shouldn't get HOF consideration? Of course not. But he shouldn't be an automatic choice, either. I would say that Warner is the fifth- or sixth-best QB of this generation, behind Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, and old man river in Minnesota. Sixth-best? That's very borderline HOF territory.

7. Minnesota Vikings [7] — Clinched a playoff spot. The Cardinals were a bad matchup for Minnesota, and the Bengals were a great one. The Vikings aren't as bad as they looked against Arizona, or as good as they looked against Cincinnati. Their quarterback has got to hold the record for most illegal passes from beyond the line or scrimmage. He does that like once a season.

8. Philadelphia Eagles [9] — Both defenses looked awful, not even professional. Al Michaels described it well: "This is like a street game." Broken coverage, atrocious tackling, lack of focus ... ugly stuff. Nine Eagles were involved in a fumble on Sunday night, either by fumbling, causing one, or recovering one. CB Sheldon Brown scored a touchdown for the second consecutive game. I'd like to see him finally make the Pro Bowl this year. Philadelphia has won four in a row.

9. Denver Broncos [10] — In the first 12 games, Brandon Marshall caught 66 passes for 808 yards. In the 13th game, 21 passes for 200 yards. He now has two of the three highest single-game reception totals in NFL history. I see Denver and Cincinnati as basically the same team, except that Denver is healthier and less reliant on its running game. Maybe I'm overreacting to one bad performance from the Bengals, but they looked lost when their ground game got shut down. The Broncos don't have a great offense, but they can lean on their defense and move the ball by running or passing.

10. Baltimore Ravens [11] — Brutally stomped Detroit to get some momentum for a postseason run. The Ravens have three very winnable games left and are as good a bet as anyone to earn the final wild card in the AFC. Next week will mark the first time all season that Baltimore plays back-to-back games against teams with losing records.

11. Dallas Cowboys [12] — As everyone knows, the NFL is totally different in December. The rules change, teams reshuffle their rosters, and good players become dogs. Did the Cowboys lose this week because it's December, or because they were playing the hottest team in the league? I'm tired of this ridiculous news angle. The Cowboys actually played pretty well, they just ran into a better team. It happens, even in autumn sometimes. DeMarcus Ware is doubtful for next week, but he's been released from the hospital and is at no risk of paralysis.

12. Miami Dolphins [14] — Ricky Williams, who had only one fumble all season, dropped the ball three times against Jacksonville. This was a big win for the Dolphins, keeping them in playoff contention and giving them a tiebreaker over the Jaguars. The remaining schedule is not easy, but every game is winnable. This week's contest in Tennessee is probably the toughest, and I don't think Miami can afford a loss.

13. New England Patriots [13] — I expected a colossal beatdown: a classic, unsportsmanlike Belichick statement following a pair of tough losses. The Patriots did win, but not very impressively. Most worrisome non-Randy Moss stat: the team only converted 3/11 third downs. Tom Brady has an interception in three straight games and six of the last seven.

14. Washington Redskins [16] — Better every week. They've set season-high point totals in each of the last two weeks, and they're getting exciting contributions from young players, most notably Brian Orakpo, who had 4 sacks on Sunday. He is only the third rookie to record at least 4 sacks in a game and has a chance to challenge Jevon Kearse's rookie record (14.5). Orakpo was drafted to address the team's woeful pass rush, and he's made a huge impact. He and Andre Carter each have 11 sacks, marking the first time since 1985 that Washington has two players with more than 10 sacks (Dexter Manley and Charles Mann).

15. New York Giants [15] — Playoff hopes are in serious trouble. They don't seem to have a defensive identity this year, and the disparity between their yardage allowed (6th in NFL) and points allowed (25th) continues to astound me. The Giants aren't a bad team, but I think their postseason dream will die in Washington next week.

16. Cincinnati Bengals [8] — Looked lost when the Vikings stuffed their ground attack. Carson Palmer passed for 94 yards on 25 attempts. The defense, missing DT Domato Peko, struggled to generate a pass rush and couldn't stop the run. In the last four weeks, Cincinnati has lost twice and beaten the Browns and Lions. This is not an elite team right now. The offense is weak and one-dimensional, the defense is missing important contributors, and the coaches are making weird decisions. Why try a 22-yard field goal when you're down 23-7 in the fourth quarter? You need touchdowns! This is only your second trip to the red zone, you might not get back here! You can't afford to come away with only three points in that situation.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Of course I'm worried about Maurice Jones-Drew. Prior to this season, he'd never carried the ball more than 197 times in a season. Since matching that mark in Week 11, he's averaging 69 yards per game and 3.4 per carry, with no 100-yard games and no rushes longer than 15 yards. That's down from 96 ypg and 5.1 yds/att before hitting 197.

18. Houston Texans [18] — Best point differential (+38) of any team with a losing record. I'm starting to feel like Houston is just perpetually a year away. There are players here they can build around — Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing — but they just never seem to bring it all together. Except this week, of course. Monster game from Johnson (193 yards, 2 TD).

19. San Francisco 49ers [19] — This team has existed for more than 60 years, and Monday night was the first time it ever forced five fumbles in a game. The 49ers did everything they needed to do, but it's hard to really evaluate them after such a weird game. San Francisco had a 13:30 edge in time of possession, almost a full quarter's worth.

20. New York Jets [21] — Can't throw, but they run okay and play terrific defense. The Jets lead the NFL in both yards and points allowed. They're one of several teams fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC, but their tiebreakers are not favorable, so the Jets probably need to win out. They're unlikely to have any trouble with Atlanta, but after that, they'd better hope the Colts and Bengals are resting players.

21. Carolina Panthers [22] — A poor man's Jets. The ground attack is good, the defense is okay, and the passing game is non-existent. Steve Smith leads the team with 765 receiving yards, and 8,000-year-old Muhsin Muhammad is second, with 411. Smith is likely to fall short of 1,000 for the first time since 2004, when he broke his leg in Week 1. Carolina has only 9 passing TDs this season, less than everyone but Oakland.

22. Atlanta Falcons [23] — Gave the Saints a fight, but couldn't pull it out and have now lost four of their last five games. They're 6-4 when Michael Turner plays, 0-3 when he doesn't.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers [20] — Didn't look like they were ready to play this week. I don't know if it was the short week, or they underestimated the Browns, or just the pressure of keeping their playoff hopes alive, but that failure has to fall on the coaching staff. This was the team's fifth straight defeat, and if you look at the schedule, it's not hard to imagine the Steelers closing the year with eight consecutive losses. They should probably be ranked lower than this, with back-to-back losses against teams ranked below them (Cleveland and Oakland). The defense was the stronger unit this week, but Pittsburgh's bright spot is the young stars on offense. Santonio Holmes has his first 1,000-yard season, and Rashard Mendenhall (940 yds, 4.8 avg) is quickly closing in on his.

24. Seattle Seahawks [24] — Officially eliminated from playoff contention. This week's blowout loss dropped Seattle to 1-6 on the road. Maybe this is beating the obvious drum after their awful performance against Houston, but pass defense is a real problem here. Part of that is due to injury, but I'd look at defensive line and secondary help this offseason. They also need to improve the offensive line. And they should draft a running back. Maybe start looking for a QB of the future, too. Really, there are a lot of issues.

25. Chicago Bears [27] — Jay Cutler was supposed to energize the offense. They've topped 20 points in a game only three times all season, and only once in the last nine games. They're actually averaging fewer points per game (19.0) than they did last year with Kyle Orton (23.4). Cutler leads the NFL in interceptions and has a worse passer rating (75.2) than Orton did in 2008 (79.6). Furthermore, Orton has a better rating in Denver (88.9) than Cutler did (86.0 last year, 87.1 career). Amazing what an offensive line and some receivers will do for you, isn't it? Cutler reminds me of Jeff George, a guy who should be wildly successful but doesn't have his head quite right.

26. Buffalo Bills [26] — If their offense was merely bad, they would probably be in contention for a division title. Because the offense is horrid, so bad that children should be shielded from watching it, the team is 5-8. They have a special pass defense, though. Buffalo leads the NFL in interceptions (25), and rookie DB Jairus Byrd leads all players (9). Most years, Byrd would be a lock for Defensive Rookie of the Year. This season, I'm not sure he's any higher than fourth. Cushing, Orakpo, and Clay Matthews III are all having pretty sensational years. Still, Byrd is right there. Underrated veteran DE Aaron Schobel has had a very good season. You don't get that many picks without some pressure, and Schobel is the one creating most of it. Twelve different Bills have an interception this year.

27. Oakland Raiders [25] — They were doomed once Bruce Gradkowski left with a knee injury (he's doubtful next week), but their real breakdown was on defense. The offense was terrible, too, but that's sort of expected, and Washington has a good defense.

28. Kansas City Chiefs [28] — Last season, playing with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, quarterback Matt Cassel posted an 89.4 passer rating. This season, his leading receiver is Jamaal Charles, a running back who only became starter halfway through the season, and Cassel's rating is 68.3. The Chiefs play Cleveland next week. I suggest you watch something else.

29. Cleveland Browns [32] — Nothing but nice things to say about the Browns this week. They had a great game-plan for the opponent and the weather. They played their hearts out in a game it would have been easy to give up on. Impressive performance from LB Matt Roth.

30. Detroit Lions [29] — They have allowed an astonishing 108.8 passer rating this season. Basically, everyone turns into Drew Brees when they play the Lions. On Sunday, Joe Flacco had a season-high 120.8 rating. Detroit is last in the NFL in both yards and points allowed.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — Beat the Packers in Week 9. The Packers have an outside shot at the Super Bowl. An outside shot. They're not your pick, they're not my pick, but they have a realistic chance. How amazing would it be if Tampa's only win came against the eventual Super Bowl champion?

32. St. Louis Rams [30] — Injuries pushed third-string QB Keith Null, a rookie from West Texas A&M, into action. He threw 5 interceptions. Steven Jackson had his worst game of the season (19 att, 47 yards) and the defense did nothing positive to speak of. The Rams have been outscored by a league-worst 215 points this season, which is already one of the worst margins in history. If they keep this up, the Rams should be considered one of the very worst teams in league history.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:59 AM | Comments (5)

Like Clockwork, Orange Are Excelling

Last week's SEC/Big East Invitational, even in its absurdity that it has to exist just so every BCS league has a non-conference sparring partner, served to confirm my perceptions about a team from each conference that won a game in the "event."

So here comes a column about the profound effect Mississippi State and St. John's beating DePaul and Georgia, respectively, will have on college basketball in 2009-10. (Kidding.)

With Kentucky's win over UConn, there's not much more you can say other than the Wildcats are for real and that John Wall is everything you heard about, read or saw and possibly more. After the close calls against Miami (OH) University and Stanford, there were doubts to be had. Still, in the two signature wins Kentucky has so far, they nearly let a big lead slip against North Carolina and were sluggish in the first half offensively against UConn. The second half of Wednesday's game looked more like what this young team is capable of and should evolve into as conference play nears.

The Wildcats have what amounts to a free ride to 14-0 going into the first big Rick Pitino/John Calipari game in nearly a half a decade on January 2 against a Louisville team undergoing its annual December swoon. I wouldn't have predicted Kentucky to be 10-0, but with all those pieces in place, I'm not surprised.

On the night of November 3, when "SportsCenter" showed highlights of a Division II team named LeMoyne taking down Syracuse at the Carrier Dome in an exhibition game, one of the last teams anybody expected to be undefeated at this point was the Orange. This loss, even though it didn't count, served to further the preseason notion that Syracuse would be in trouble with the early exits by Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris, and Eric Devendorf. (Perhaps more shocking than the actual result was learning that LeMoyne is located in Syracuse and is nicknamed the Dolphins. There's mascot incongruity, and then there's this.)

Less than six weeks after that game, not only is Syracuse without a blemish in real games, but they may be the only team in the country to have four quality wins at this early stage (Florida, North Carolina, Pac-10 favorite Cal and Ivy favorite Cornell). What's more is that they actually left the state of New York before conference play began to pick up the win over Florida.

How are they doing it? Simply put, they are shooting the lights out. In every game but their season-opening (non-exhibition, of course) win over Albany, the Orange have shot 50 percent or better. They've outscored opponents by nearly 27 points per game, and have four players averaging double figures (with two others in the high nine-points) and seven guys playing 20 minutes or more per game. In my favorite stats to determine the quality of a team, Syracuse is scoring 1.17 points per possession while giving 0.81 points a trip on defense, giving them an efficiency margin of .36, ranking third in the nation. The Orange have the kind of spurtability that Jay Bilas and Bill Raftery dream about at night, as evidenced by a 22-1 run in the North Carolina game and a 10-0 run in the Florida contest Thursday night.

Perhaps the losses of Harris and Devendorf were actually good things for Syracuse. We all know about Devendorf's past off-court issues and Harris was never classified as a real big team player. But really, the player that has made the biggest impact for the 'Cuse has been Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson.

In the build up to this season, Jim Boeheim raved about how good Johnson was. We college basketball fans are trained to tune this sort of stuff out, though. It seems like even right now, Duke is building up Liberty transfer Seth Curry to be the second coming of his brother. Johnson was so overlooked as a high schooler from a small town in between Dallas and Waco that he went to prep school for a year before being offered a scholarship by Iowa State. Injuries hobbled Johnson the two years he was in Ames and he left coach Greg McDermott's Cyclones.

The small forward leads the Orange in scoring and has become the most unexpected star of this college basketball season. Before suiting up for Syracuse, the knock on Johnson was his shot. He's currently averaging 59% from the floor and 51% from three-point range. If that's a player whose shot isn't supposed to be that great, the rest of the country is shuddering to think how good the Orange's best player can be.

The Orange have weaknesses just like any other team does at this point in the year. They turn the ball over a little more than the average team. Free throw shooting is a concern (would you believe that Arinze Onuaku's FT percentage has gone up 10% from last year ... to 40?). In addition, the Big East might not have the slightly down year that was expected. Of the 14 teams that have no blemishes on their records, five are in the Big East. Yet, this is looking like the most complete Syracuse team since the team that won the title in 2003. And no one could have expected that at the beginning of last month.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:58 AM | Comments (2)

December 14, 2009

Kobe Bryant: Too Proud to Sit?

In the second quarter of the Laker's win over the Timberwolves on Friday night, their 11th in a row, Kobe Bryant broke the index finger on his right hand reaching for a pass that was tipped by defender Corey Brewer. After playing most of the rest of the first half predominantly left-handed, Bryant went to the locker room to get x-rays.

After the x-rays revealed that Bryant had an avulsion fracture, essentially where a piece of the bone becomes dislodged near a ligament or a tendon, he simply put a splint on his finger and played the second half, again taking more shots than normal with his left hand.

The following night, the Lakers dropped a game for the first time in nearly a month, losing to the Jazz in Utah 102-94. On top of playing with the fractured finger on his shooting hand, Kobe was battling a stomach bug. He was injected with IVs both before the game and during halftime.

And while Kobe's decision to play can be considered "gritty," his performance Saturday night was anything but. He finished with a season-low 16 points (a full 12 points below his average) on just 7-of-24 shooting in the loss.

After the game, Phil Jackson said of Bryant, "I just don't think he had the energy."

Which begs the question: why let him play?

By now, we all know what kind of player Kobe Bryant is. He's a warrior, for a lack of a better term. He's been playing for two-plus seasons with a pinky on his right hand that is damaged to the point that it needs surgery to be repaired, only Kobe refuses to undergo the procedure because he doesn't want to sit for the six weeks or so that it would take to recover.

Kobe hasn't missed a game since suffering the injured pinky, a stretch that includes two full NBA seasons, two trips to the NBA Finals, and a stint with Team USA in the Olympics.

We've seen Kobe play left-handed after dislocating his right shoulder in a game. We've seen him play through finger injuries, shoulder injuries, ankle injuries, and groin injuries. We've seen him play through the flu plenty of times.

All the while, Kobe continues to put up great numbers game in and game out, injured or not.

And that's the problem.

If you're Phil Jackson, or one of Kobe's teammates, you expect him to go out and be the greatest player on the planet every time you take the floor, regardless of how his body feels. He's given us no reason not to expect that over the past few seasons.

But at what point does someone have to step in and say "enough is enough?"

The Lakers have already proven that they are head and shoulders better than every other team in the Western Conference this season. This isn't the 2006 team that needs Kobe to go out and carry them on his back every single night. For as great as he is, if you took Kobe off the Lakers, they are still a 50-win team. They can afford to play a few games without him.

I understand that Kobe is a fierce competitor, but there isn't someone in that organization that has a good enough rapport with Kobe to pull him aside and say, "Look, you're less than 24 hours removed from breaking the index finger on your shooting hand and you're sick as a dog, we're gonna sit you out tonight. It's what's best for you and the team."

Selfishly, I love the fact that Kobe never takes a night off. I've made it clear every chance I've gotten over the past three years that I love watching Kobe play, I think he's by far the best player in the league, and you'll never convince me otherwise.

Again, selfishly, I'm glad Kobe isn't taking time off for this most recent injury. The Lakers make their one and only trip to Detroit on Sunday, and you better believe that I already have my tickets. "Disappointed" would be understating how I'd feel if Kobe didn't play in that game. "Devastated" would be overstating it. But I'd be a lot closer to the latter if he chose to sit the Piston game out.

But, putting my personal interests aside, there is no reason for Kobe Bryant to play on the Lakers' current five-game road trip.

Already this season, he's had a groin injury, an ankle injury, and now the broken finger. He's played more games than any other player in NBA history over the course of the past two and a quarter seasons (if you count the playoffs and the Olympics).

He's 31-years-old, and his odometer already reads 970 regular season games and 175 playoff games.

At some point "playing through it" all the time is going to catch up to Bryant, and that opens the door for an injury-plagued, reputation-tarnishing, end to an otherwise legendary NBA career.

If only getting to watch Kobe play 70 times per season means that he can stretch his career out by another season or two, then I'm all for it.

The Lakers are headed for another 100+ game season right now. It would be their third in a row. Kobe hasn't missed a game in that stretch. I don't care how great Bryant takes care of his body, that's a recipe for disaster.

The smart move is to shut it down for a week or two, let the nagging injuries heal, and get geared back up for another run at the NBA title.

But, for better or for worse, Kobe isn't wired that way. He's not taking any time off. I know it, you know it, and Phil Jackson and the Lakers organization knows it.

Kobe's either going to figure out a way to shoot with the splint on his finger or figure out a way to score more using his left-hand. Either way, I can assure you that he will not be held to 16 points again on this road trip.

And for as strongly as I feel about the fact that Kobe should not be playing right now, the possibility that one day I could be telling my grandkids, "I was there the night Kobe scored 30 left-handed against the Pistons" has me downright giddy.

That's the beauty of watching greatness. The future doesn't matter; you just have to enjoy it while it lasts.

One day Kobe's body is going to give out, and that day gets closer and closer every time he plays through a nagging injury or risks his health by putting off surgeries.

And as disappointing as the day Kobe's body says "No More" is going to be, I can just think, "It was all worth it."

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:25 AM | Comments (2)

December 10, 2009

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+9)

After a stunning loss to the Raiders in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have lost four in a row and now stand at 6-6, and their hopes for a wild card berth rest on dangerous footing. With seven teams in the wildcard mix, Pittsburgh will likely need to win out to have even a chance at securing a berth, and the chase begins Thursday in the Dawg Pound.

"If that's the Steelers idea of 'unleashing hell,'" says Eric Mangini, "then I'm feeling a lot less uneasy about my eventual time in the afterlife. Besides, if there's one thing I can do for the fans of Cleveland, it's to fulfill their most popular request, and that's for me to 'go to hell.'"

"No one is quite sure what's wrong with the Steelers. Oh, there's plenty of theories. Maybe it's the lack of a breakaway threat in the running game. Maybe it's the absence of Troy Polamalu, probably the only player whose impact when he's not playing exceeds that when he is playing. Here's a theory no one has posed: maybe the Steelers just aren't that good."

"The Polamalu explanation seems most logical. With Polamalu in, the defense is great. When he's out, they're mediocre. It's a defensive case of 'hair today, gone tomorrow."

Ben Roethlisberger knows, as the unofficial leader of the Steelers, it's up to him to rally the troops and turn the season around.

"That's right," says Roethlisberger. "Unofficial leader. Just as the Beastie Boys' Check Your Head is the unofficial soundtrack to the second half of our season. "

"Now, most people would agree that it's time for a private team meeting," says Roethlisberger, "and assuming I can get doctor's clearance, I'm going to request one. I have no doubt that my teammates will listen to me. The question is, will they believe me? We've got to turn things around immediately. A loss to the Browns would be devastating. They are the enemy. And with teammates like these, who needs more enemies?"

"I understand Hines Ward has a hamstring injury that may keep him out of Thursday's game. Isn't that an interesting development? I could be the better man and not say a word. Or I could put the 'critic' in 'hypocritical' and ask for a doctor's note."

Pittsburgh wins, 19-9.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (+9½)

The Saints remained undefeated thanks to a 33-30 overtime win in Washington, an escape worthy of Harry Houdini. Washington's Shaun Suisham missed a 23-yard field goal that would have iced the game for the 'Skins. The Saints capitalized, and won on Garrett Hartley's field goal in overtime.

"The so-called 'football gods' were certainly looking down upon us," says Drew Brees. "I guess that's a kind way of saying Daniel Snyder was watching the Redskins from his luxury box. Usually, a 'gimme' is strictly used as a golf term, either to indicate a short putt, or, in the case of Tiger Woods, it's what he says when he sees a woman. But 'gimme' can apply to football, as well, because Washington certainly gave us that one. It's not often you see an interception, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown in a span of seconds, unless you're watching a Jake Delhomme highlight reel."

The absences of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner to injuries have left the Falcons without their two main offensive weapons. Ryan practiced Wednesday and may start on Sunday.

"Things were certainly looking good after week five," says Mike Smith. "We were 4-1 and riding a wave of momentum. That was our 'Falcon Crest.' After that, things have gone downhill. Injuries have been the major issue to various body parts. Michael turned his ankle, Matt sprained his toe, and my mouth popped off when DeAngelo Hall invaded my space. Michael and Matt's injuries have lingered, but Roger Goodell made sure my mouth healed in a hurry."

New Orleans wins, 31-13.

Denver @ Indianapolis (-7½)

The Colts, winners of 12 straight this year and 21 regular-season games, host the Broncos, who have won two in a row after four straight losses dimmed the luster of a 6-0 start. So, barring a tie, and a quick explanation of NFL rules to Donovan McNabb, one team's streak will come to an end.

"Our 21-game streak compared to Denver's two-game streak?" says Peyton Manning. "That's like comparing apples to 'orange.' The truth is, I love playing Denver, the Broncos as well as John. For me, joining the 'Mile-High Club,' as for most people, consists of 'ins and outs.' Mine just happens to be learning the 'in and outs' of a new playbook while listening to 'Rocky Mountain High' on my headphones, while cruising 30,000 feet above the mortals below me."

"Historically, the Broncos have not fared well in Indianapolis. I recall two wildcard blowouts in 2004 and 2005. So you can expect those horses from Denver to be saying 'whoa is me!'"

The Broncos rushed for 245 yards last week against the Chiefs, and that running attack will have to be successful to limit Peyton Manning's opportunities.

"Manning is a clever devil," says McDaniels, "but if it's 'horseplay' he wants, it's 'horseplay' he'll get. Despite those two big losses, and despite the logo on the Indy helmets, there's no way they're a 'shoe-in' for victory. I've got a game plan guaranteed to beat the Colts, and if my team carries it out correctly, we'll win. If they don't, I will give them a cursing out that would make a sailor turn a dangerous shade of 'Shanahan.'"

Can the Broncos pull off the upset? Scoring touchdowns in the red zone will be imperative. In the end, though, the Colts' "bend but don't break" defense will snap back, and Indy will overcome a third-quarter deficit. It's the Indy "Losing But Don't Lose" offense.

Colts win, 30-26.

Seattle @ Houston (-6)

For a team many considered would contend for a wild card, if not a division title, Houston's 5-7 record has been nothing short of a disappointment. The Texans are last in the division, and their 1-5 division record is also the worst in the AFC South.

"On the bright side," says Gary Kubiak, "at least there's no reason to be looking over our shoulders. I wish I could say the same for me. When I ask for a vote of confidence, chairman Robert McNair always tells me 'You're good ... as gone.' Of course, I'm like all the other coaches on the hot seat — I hear the Mike Shanahan rumors. However, I'm at a disadvantage to the others; I've already got Shanahan's son Kyle on my staff. That son of a bitch."

Despite a sore throwing shoulder, Matt Hasselbeck plans to play for the Seahawks. Hasselbeck has endured an injury-riddled season, with the pain of broken ribs suffered earlier in the season a lingering concern.

"Jim Mora's in a similar situation to that of Kubiak," says Matt Hasselbeck. "When Jim asks for his own vote of confidence, everyone wants to 'abstain.' I tell Jim, if you really need an answer, ask Travis Henry. He never abstains."

Seattle wins, 24-21.

Carolina @ New England (-13)

The Patriots troubles on the road continued last week with a 22-21 loss in Miami, and now the Patriots hold only a slim one-game lead over the Dolphins and Jets in the AFC East. New England will try to rebound against the Panthers in a rematch of Super Bowl 38, a 32-29 Patriots win that took place at the height of their dynasty.

"'Dynasty' is a word we try not to use around here anymore," says Tom Brady. "Much like the words 'go for it on 4th-and-2,' 'Bridget Moynahan,' or 'David Tyree.'"

"As for our 1-5 road record, it's by far the worst road record of any division leader. Some, like the Colts and Saints, two teams we've lost to on the road, are both 6-0 on the road. That makes them 'Road Warriors,' while we're nothing more than 'Road Worriers.'"

"As a team, we have to realize that just because we're the Patriots, we won't just be handed a Super Bowl trophy. Now, Charles Woodson may tell you that we were handed a 2002 divisional playoff win because we were the Patriots. But that's open to interpretation and subjectivity, just like the 'tuck rule.' If you ask me, though, I'll tell you the honest truth about the 'tuck rule,' that it's nothing more than transvestite origami."

Despite the loss, that Super Bowl marked the high point for the Carolina franchise. But this season has been one defined by a series of low points, including a dismal year from Jake Delhomme, who seemed destined for greatness after his Super Bowl performance.

"Jake put us on the map," says John Fox. "But this season, he's been given entirely too much latitude. I predict that next year, you'll need a map just to find Jake and myself."

The Pats win, 30-13, but they won't clinch the AFC East on Sunday. They'll wait until Week 16, a more festive time, when the Patriot "Missile" Toe is hung in the locker room, and the celebration can include a bevy of unsuspecting female reporters.

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-1)

East and West meet as the Bills and Chiefs, both last in their respective divisions, face-off in chilly Arrowhead Stadium. While the Chiefs are in the first year of Todd Haley's regime, the Bills and owner Ralph Wilson are preparing for what is sure to be wholesale changes in the offseason.

"We started with the firing of Dick Jauron," says Wilson. "But that in itself wasn't enough. We also had to delete his image from the team photo. I'm not sure where that image is now, but chances are it's occupying space shared with Scott Norwood. Let us speak of them never again."

Kansas City is 3-9 after a 44-13 thrashing at the hands of the Broncos last week at Arrowhead, the Chiefs' worst defeat of the year.

"Despite rumors," says Todd Haley, "the Chiefs did not invoke the 'slaughter rule' in that game, although they did say 'Uncle Sam.' Now, Jauron's 'disappearance' was strange, but it's not that uncommon for things like that to happen. As you saw in last Sunday's game, I made Matt Cassel disappear when I benched him."

Terrell Owens catches 7 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo wins, 23-17.

Detroit @ Baltimore (-13)

After a penalty-filled 27-14 loss in Green Bay on Monday night, the Ravens are 6-6 and now join the Steelers, Jets, and Dolphins in the scrap heap of .500 teams still eyeing the playoffs. With upcoming home games with the Lions and Bears in succession, Ray Lewis knows wins in those two games are imperative if the Ravens are to make a playoff push in the final two weeks.

"I'm not one to point fingers," says Lewis, "so I'll just name names. Joe Flacco can't throw interceptions, particularly in the end zone, and our defensive backs, who luckily won't be named because they are 'no-name' defenders, can't commit that many interference penalties. I haven't seen that much 'interference' since the Feds came asking questions back in 2000. Normally, I see 'yellow' like that when a wide receiver ducks a big hit on a crossing pattern."

"And speaking of 'false accusations,' the allegations by a woman that Terrell Suggs assaulted and poured bleach on her are absolutely false. I know Terrell likes white women, but not that much."

The Lions are 2-10, which is two wins better than they were at this time last year. So, as is usually the case for the Lions, talk in December is not of 'playoffs', but of the NFL draft in April, in which Detroit will again have a prime pick.

"Hey, don't rain on our parade," says Jim Schwartz. "That's one time when we can proudly say 'we're number one.' We're making progress — we don't even have the overall number one pick."

Can the Ravens defensive backs keep their hands off Calvin Johnson? Let's hope so. Otherwise, half this game may be run under caution.

Baltimore wins, 31-14.

Cincinnati @ Minnesota (-6½)

In their 30-17 win over the Vikings, the Cardinals did two things to derail the Minnesota offense, and that's take away the running game, and force Brett Favre into turnovers. It's a plan the 9-3 Bengals are likely to follow when they travel to Minnesota for a game of which the outcome will likely have far-reaching seeding implications.

"It seems that the police aren't the only ones slowing down the Vikings," says Favre. "Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian were both busted for speeding. But being around so many 'speed freaks' makes me feel just like I'm back in my home state of Mississippi. As for Adrian, it's no wonder that kid is so strong. He's carrying around a lot of weight. Not only does he have a 'lead foot,' he's got 'hands of stone', as well."

"But it's December in Minnesota, the time of year when the danger of 'exposure' increases.' And we were exposed last Sunday night in Arizona."

The Bengals, like the Chargers, are 9-3, and the number two AFC seed will likely go to one of those two teams. The Bengals have already won this year in Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, so they are confident they can do the same in Minnesota.

"We like our chances under the dome," says Chad Ochocinco. "And I've got a great touchdown celebration planned. After I score, I'll tear off my jersey to reveal a Packers jersey. I'll take that one off to reveal a Jets jersey. Then, I'll remove that to reveal a Vikings jersey. Then I'll give Brad Childress a big hug. Of course, I'll recap it all on my Twitter account."

"You know, with the addition of Larry Johnson, posting tweets has reached a new level. My good-natured tweeting, coupled with Larry's politically incorrect tweets, has led to the coining of our new nickname, 'Tweetle Dee and Tweetle Dumb."

The fun-loving Ochocinco has run afoul of the NFL for last week's "sombrero and poncho" outfit, for which he was fined $30,000. He's busted again shortly before Sunday's kickoff, this time for paying the fine in pesos.

Ochocinco catches a touchdown pass as the Bengals get a Shayne Graham field goal in overtime to win, 27-24.

NY Jets @ Tampa Bay (+3½)

Last Thursday's win over Buffalo, coupled win New England's loss to Miami last Sunday, breathed new life into the Jets' playoff aspirations. New York is 6-6 and trails the Patriots by one game, with Sunday's visit to 1-11 Tampa a must-win on their remaining schedule.

"And we'll need a healthy Mark Sanchez to even have a chance," say Rex Ryan. "And that means he'll have to display proper sliding techniques. Mark's shown that as far as intellect is concerned, he's very rarely classified as 'head first.' You may have heard that Sanchez is only the second Jets rookie to throw for 2,000 yards in a season, the other being Joe Namath. But the comparisons don't end there. We're simply asking of mark the same thing Joe Willie asked of Suzy Kolber — 'Gimme some leg.'"

Tampa's Josh Freeman threw five interceptions last week in Carolina as the Bucs dropped to 1-11 after a 16-6 loss. Freeman and his receivers will face Darrelle Revis, arguably the NFL's best cornerback, who has dominated some of the league's best receivers.

"I'm smart enough not to throw Revis' way," says Freeman, "and I'm wise enough to know when to slide. Sanchez is obviously a big fan of Van Halen, because despite his coach's pleas, he still ends up as a 'Diver Down.'"

With Sanchez sitting, Kellen Clemens starts, and New York rushes for 185 yards on the ground on their way to a 24-13 win. Even on the bench, Sanchez health is a concern. With the game in hand, he dives head first into a hot dog on the sideline, spraining his tonsils.

St. Louis @ Tennessee (-13)

Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson, the AFC and NFC rushing leaders, respectively, meet when the Rams travel to LP Field to challenge the 5-7 Titans, who are still fighting for their playoff lives. The bruising Jackson leads the NFC with 1,232 yards, while the speedy Johnson heads the AFC list with 1,509.

"Hey, somebody tell LenDale White that 'Smash and Dash' are back in Tennessee," says Jeff Fisher. "Personally, I liked LenDale with the love handles. Heck, I agree with Bud Adams and his most recent display of 'two fingers' — LenDale needs to put the 'two fingers' of tequila back in his diet."

"Now, we obviously won't go 10-6, as Johnson predicted after our 0-6 start. I guess it's safe for people to finally say what they thought when Chris said that — 'Balder-Dash.'"

Johnson out-gains Jackson 165 to 111 and the Titans win, 30-10.

Miami @ Jacksonville (-3)

While the 7-5 Jaguars are seeking a wild card playoff berth, the 6-6 Dolphins are in a tight battle for the AFC East division title. Miami trails the Patriots by a game, but their 4-2 division record is best in the East. In both cases, a loss would be painfully detrimental to the causes of the Jags and 'Fins.

"In the NFL," says Tony Sparano, "it's never easy winning in a hostile environment. That's why we like our chances at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, where the empty seats outnumber the full ones, and are often louder."

Jack Del Rio has the Jaguars in solid position for a playoff berth with four games remaining. Right now, Jacksonville would be the sixth seed, and with games remaining against the Colts and Patriots, the Jags have their work cut out for them.

"As they say in the business," says Del Rio, "we control our own destiny. That's just like saying 'You've got no one to blame but yourself if you don't make the playoffs. So let the blame game begin."

"As for attendance, Florida governor Charlie Crist thinks drafting hometown boy Tim Tebow could be the boost to ticket sales this franchise sorely needs. I can't argue with that, and if Tebow is available, we might just take him. I liken Tebow to a good golfer — if he's still there in the fourth round, he might just be a keeper. Four!"

Miami wins, 27-21.

Green Bay @ Chicago (+3)

In Chicago, the Bears snapped a four-game skid with a 17-9 win over the one-win Rams, a victory about as impressive as Jay Cutler's updated resume. Chicago is mathematically still alive in the playoff race, but with their next three games against teams well within the playoff mix, the Bears' are probably better suited in the role as spoiler.

"Hey, I love role-playing," says Cutler. "Sometimes, I fantasize that I'm an NFL quarterback, as do my teammates. But I can't fault anyone for questioning my faults. I just have to learn to correct them, this time without Ed Hochuli's help. That becomes even more imperative in this time of the year. No, it's got nothing to do with making the playoffs. It's my trouble with interceptions, as my teammates are concerned it may become an even more troubling issue in this 'season of sharing.'"

The Packers sport the league's number one-ranked defense, and Dom Caper's switch to a 3-4 defense is now paying full dividends. The Packers are 8-4 and look solid for a wild card berth.

"All we have to do is take care of our business," says Charles Woodson, "while the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants beat themselves up in the NFC East. What we really want is a rematch with Brett Favre and the Vikings. If that happens and we win, revenge will be sweet. If not, the Vikes will have the sweep, and Favre can say he 'retired the side.'"

Green Bay wins, 23-16.

Washington @ Oakland (+1)

The Redskins and Raiders experienced both ends of the emotional spectrum last Sunday, as Oakland was ecstatic following a 27-24 upset of the Steelers in Pittsburgh, while Washington was downtrodden after seeing a sure win over the undefeated Saints turn in to a 33-30 overtime loss.

"Wow, the timing of our victory couldn't have been better," says Al Davis. "Just weeks after some well-intentioned fans wasted their hard-earned money to post a message on a billboard asking me to hire a general manager, we go out and get our biggest win of the year. That's a clear sign that nothing needs changing here. So, not only was this a 'moral' victory,' it was a 'more-Al' victory, as well. I'll relinquish control of this franchise when they pry my cold, dead fingers from it. Barring natural causes, that won't happen. So it's true what most people say: it will take an act of God to get me out of here."

Shaun Suisham's missed 23-yard field goal cost the Redskins the game, and on Tuesday, it cost Suisham his job. Suisham was cut, and the Redskins signed UFL kicker Graham Gano.

"We're going to Oakland to take back what's rightfully ours," says Jim Zorn. "At least that's what Daniel Snyder says. He's unscrupulously and unwisely spent so much money, he thinks he can recover it in the 'Black Hole.'"

When the teams of Davis and Snyder collide, there's no telling what will happen. But one thing's for sure — Davis and Snyder are reading from the same owner's manual.

Washington wins, 22-15.

San Diego @ Dallas (-3)

Is the Dallas December collapse imminent? After a 5-1 November record put them on top of the NFC East, the Cowboys ushered in December with a 31-24 loss to the Giants, and now face the hot Chargers, followed by the undefeated Saints in Week 15. Is this the beginning of the end for Dallas?

"If the previous month was a 'November to Remember,'" says Wade Phillips, "then this month could be a 'December to Dis-member,' because we always seem to lose our manhood. Let's hope we find it before Mark Sanchez does, otherwise we all could be in for an embarrassing situation."

"As for Flozell Adams, he's obviously got anger issues. He was fined $50,000 for shoving Justin Tuck in the back. Earlier this year, he was fined for tripping Tuck. Unlike Flozell, I hate to kick a man when he's down, but he's got to display some control."

The Chargers have won seven in a row, and unlike the Cowboys, have a history of flourishing in the month of December. Norv Turner has the San Diego offense clicking, and a revitalized LaDainian Tomlinson is contributing. Last week, Tomlinson passed Jim Brown for eighth on the NFL's all-time rushing yards list.

"Dallas' December trouble is no surprise," says Norv Turner. "Even the Farmer's Almanac calls for four weeks of failure. Wade Phillips wants respect? With that haircut? Anyway, L.T. is hot, and after passing Brown, I believe he's ready to take that next step. How about L.T. starring alongside WWE superstar John Cena and Yaphet Kotto II in The Running Man 2?"

Dallas wins, 30-24.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-1)

The Giants' big win over the Cowboys last week put them back in the division hunt; a win in Sunday night's game at Giants Stadium versus the Eagles could give them a share of the NFC East lead. The G-Men finally showed the attitude that was a key ingredient to their 5-0 start this season,

"Attitude? Is that what it was?" says Tom Coughlin. "Because it sure wasn't defense. We'll need better effort if we plan on making the playoffs. We've got the sixth-ranked defense in the NFL, but statistics don't interest me. Jay-Z may be in an 'Empire State of Mind," but I'm in an "Empirical State of Mind."

The Eagles are 8-4 and, with apologies to Michael Vick, right in the thick of a dogfight for the NFC East division crown. Philly will welcome the return of DeSean Jackson, who missed last week's game against the Falcons. Jackson gives Philly big-play capabilities at wide receiver,

"Jackson is our best offensive weapon," says Donovan McNabb. "And Vick, as he proved in Atlanta, is becoming more a part of this offense. He took two 'to the house,' which is quite an accomplishment after spending two 'in the big house.' Michael's had to sit long enough; now it's his time to speak."

Philadelphia wins, 31-27.

Arizona @ San Francisco (+6)

The 5-7 49ers trail the Cardinals by three games in the NFC West, so Monday night's game in a last-ditch effort to maintain hope for the playoffs. A win, and San Fran is back to within two games; a loss, and the Cardinals coast to the division title.

"Hey, this is San Francisco," says Mike Singletary. "We understand the magnitude of this game. And speaking of the Richter scale, we'll need our yards per rush average to be more than a mild tremor in order to compete with Arizona. We know the Cardinals are hot. To beat them, we have to be extremely physical, and take a 'seek and destroy' attitude. In other words, we'll have to be 'dirty' and 'harry.'"

The Cardinals served notice that they will be a playoff team to be reckoned with after whipping the NFC North-leading Vikings 30-17 last week. Anquan Boldin also served notice, that he'll be filthy rich when free agency signings commence. Boldin was unstoppable against Minnesota, with 7 catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"I've often been praised for my 'pocket presence,'" says Kurt Warner. "But that's nothing compared to what Anquan will face this offseason. He's going to have so much money thrown at him even he won't be able to catch it all. If he's smart, like me, he play one team against another and blackmail one into upping its price. Then give 10 percent of the difference to the almighty Lord."

Warner throws for 265 yards and 3 scores, and the Cardinals erase a 10-point early deficit to win, 24-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:56 AM | Comments (2)

Rick Reilly Eats Babies

That's my "hey, everyone, look at me!" statement. It's what you need these days to make sure your message makes it through to the masses. You don't need to be smarter or more articulate than the other talking heads, you just need to be more outrageous and more outlandish.

I have a first-hand knowledge of this, having worked at a radio station. Some offices celebrate good sales numbers or other traditional harbingers of success, sometimes they even celebrate with cookies or jeans day. Radio stations don't hand out popsicles until someone has been murdered or when there's a big sex scandal, because that's when business is good.

So I should understand when radio and TV people engage in this practice. But sometimes it's so ridiculous that you can't stay above the fray. For instance, I was in Cincinnati on Wednesday and listened to 35 seconds of the big station in town.

In that 35 seconds, the host attacked Brian Kelly for lying about staying at UC (he presumes Kelly will sign with Notre Dame) and then attacked Notre Dame for even hiring Kelly because he's pro-choice. First, I have no idea how anyone knows Brian Kelly's thoughts on abortion or why they are relevant at all. There's nothing in his job description that deals with the termination of pregnancies.

Still, in 35 seconds, this host was able to call Kelly a liar and a baby-killer. A baby-killer! That's one the elderly host probably dusted off from 40 years ago when he welcomed home our soldiers from Vietnam. And he just casually threw it in there like it was one of his hobbies or something. Like in Kelly's bio, it says:

In his spare time, Coach Kelly likes long walks on the beach, reading 19-century British literature, and murdering babies.

So, there's one of two ways you can deal with an ignorant remark like that. You can either get pissed off, which is what the host wants, or you can get really, really sarcastic. For this instance, I choose the latter.

Allow me to don my Notre Dame fan hat. Okay, here we go.

"Hell yes, Notre Dame should be hiring a baby-killer. It's about damn time the Golden Dome was represented by someone with a little bit of an edge. No one wants to mess with a guy that is so deranged that he murders babies just because he doesn't have an Xbox to fill his time with.

This is just solid coaching from Brian Kelly, right here. He understands you can't just go from zero to stopping the high-powered offenses of USC and Navy. You need to start by getting confidence building wins over smaller teams. And, in Kelly's case, over smaller human beings.

It's nice to know we finally have a coach that will win at all costs, even if that cost is one miniature human life. If he kills babies, I can't wait to see what he's going to do against Rich Rodriguez and Michigan.

Killing babies is a big step up for this program. The only thing our last head coach killed was $5-dollar-footlongs from Subway (five at a time)."

And then, of course, there's Rick Reilly. Reilly went on a deranged rant on "SportsCenter" this week about Tiger Woods. Because everyone has an opinion on Woods, Reilly had to get outrageous with his. He had to scream the loudest.

So he went on an impassioned rant about how Tiger should return all of his sponsor money until he clears his name and about how Tiger owes it to all of us to fix his marriage. Reilly said we needed Tiger to show us how important marriage is.

It was literally the most asinine thing I've ever heard a sportscaster say. Tiger didn't break the law by having an affair. He's not even accused of something awful like rape or murder or anything. There are tons of athletes that have committed far worse crimes against society and they are a ton of sports figures that aren't faithful to their wives. A ton. And Reilly is going to get on his soapbox and say America needs him to fix his marriage?

I'm not even taking the sarcastic route on this one. It's simply too stupid. Reilly has thrown away any journalistic integrity he had left to pull off yet another episode of "angry white guy whacks young black athlete." Reilly has just stopped trying.

I have prepared a well-thought out, extremely articulate counterpoint to Reilly's remarks.

"Rick Reilly eats babies!"

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 11:12 AM | Comments (1)

December 9, 2009

Is College Football Unfixable?

I believe there are few people left who wouldn't agree with the following statement: something needs to change in college football.

Now, we can argue until we're blue in the face about the what-ifs and propose theories for a college football playoff system as the majority of college football fans have been doing since the BCS came into existence and even before, but we'd be saying the same things we said last year, and the year before, and the year before...

There are many things we can't change about college football, but let us speak of two things that can be changed that will quite easily make the game better.

This year, I'd like to propose something simple to begin with: a standard number of games played by every team in NCAA Division I football.

It continually gets overlooked, but is it really fair to the record books that in a four-year college football career, one player may play up to 8 games more than another player? I don't think so. The answer is simple. Each team plays 12 games of a regular season and any championship games or bowl games are not counted toward their career statistics, but counted as playoff statistics (like all professional sports are so good at doing), so that no player can ever record more than 48 games of college football. It wouldn't even be difficult to go backward and have this rule apply to previous seasons.

This season was truly an anomaly showcasing five undefeated teams, three of them from so-called power conferences. In previous seasons, fans have been forced to argue about which one-loss team should be in the national championship and occasionally if a two-loss power conference team should be ranked higher than an undefeated Hawaii, Utah, or Boise State. I prefer the previous arguments.

Is there a way to look at these five undefeated teams and give them any sort of fair shake in which bowl games they get to play in? No, not entirely. Even if you tried to make a playoff, you'd never be able to make it big enough to include all teams with a claim to being the best team and small enough to be completed in a reasonable amount of time.

The selection of those 4, 8, 16, or 32 teams for a playoff would be just as subjective and just as arguable as the current system. Any playoff system would have to change and be re-arranged with every season to be anywhere close to effective.

For instance this season, what would you do? I'd argue for a six-team playoff this season with the five undefeated teams along with Florida giving Alabama and Texas a bye, but even that isn't completely fair because deciding who gets the bye is subjective and who gets the sixth spot is subjective. I think it would be the best way for this particular season, but it is not even close to perfect. Only three of the six power conferences are represented.

So my second very simple proposal is as follows: if a team ends the season undefeated and wins its bowl game, whether it be the BCS Championship Game, another BCS bowl game, or even a non-BCS bowl game, they should be rewarded in money just as the BCS champion is awarded and that figure should be higher than a non-undefeated team winning a similar bowl game.

What that means is that even if the BCS decides that a hypothetical 12-1 Florida should play a hypothetical 12-1 Texas in the BCS Championship Game next season and there is a hypothetical 13-0 Boise State that wins its bowl game over a hypothetical 10-2 Ohio State, Boise State should receive more money for their win than whoever wins the actual championship game.

No, of course it isn't perfect, but it provides some sense of evenness between teams that go undefeated, which is an accomplishment I believe worth rewarding whether you are from the WAC, Mountain West, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or any other conference.

Money is a simple way to level the playing field in the slightest bit since there is no apparent way to level the playing field when it comes to glory.

In the end, yes, college football is unfixable in that it will never be perfect. It will never please everyone. That is impossible. There are still measures that can be taken, however, that are simple and would improve the game.

Yet we should be thankful that the BCS has at the very least granted us five very enticing bowl games this year. It will be interesting to see if three teams will be able to lay claim to some portion of the imaginary title of "champion."

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:58 AM | Comments (4)

December 8, 2009

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Didn't understand the replay review in overtime of the New Orleans/Washington game. Isn't a fumble unreviewable if the whistle blows before it's recovered? What made this different than the infamous whistle from Ed Hochuli in the Denver/San Diego game last year?

* Even if it's reviewable, does referee Carl Cheffers not understand that a player is down once his elbow or forearm hits the ground? Furthermore, Cheffers clearly does not realize that an existing call should only be overturned on indisputable evidence. "I bet on the Saints" or "I'm cold and want to go home" are not valid reasons. Strange call.

* Jim Zorn should be fired just for this: timeouts every time New Orleans was about to try a field goal. Have you ever seen icing the kicker work in the NFL? I haven't. Quit wasting everyone's time, jackass.

* I criticize refs all the time, but John Parry's crew in the Sunday night game was excellent. Let 'em play without ignoring obvious penalties.

* I'm breaking one of my own rules this week. At the beginning of this season I swore not to use Brett Favre's name, and I've held to that. The ban is off, for one week. This needs to be said. You hear a lot these days about how bad Tony Romo is in December. But you never hear about how terrible Favre is. Since 2006, Romo's first season as starter, he has better December statistics than Favre in every single passing category. Every one. Completions, completion percentage, yards, yards per attempt, yards per completion, touchdowns, TD%, fewer interceptions, INT%, passer rating. Literally every one. Romo can't play in December, but Favre is clutch and a hero and everything else. Right.

Romo in December: 303-500, 60.6%, 3,387 yards, 6.8/att, 17 TD, 19 INT, 76.3 rating

Favre in December: 278-483, 57.6%, 3,033 yards, 6.3/att, 14 TD, 23 INT, 66.0 rating

This is why Favre didn't make my Pro Bowl team. You can't trust him when it counts.

***

Those of you who watched the Cardinals pound Minnesota on Sunday night also heard NBC announcer Cris Collinsworth say some things about Brett Favre that might have seemed a little strange: "By any statistical measure that you can come up with, this is without question the greatest football that he has ever played in his career."

By any statistical measure? Without question? The man is a three-time MVP, that sounds pretty impressive! But, of course, it's not true.

There is one major statistic in which he's having a career year, passer rating. What about the other primary passing stats, yards and TDs? He's on pace for 4,199 yards — that would be the third-highest of his career, not "without question" the greatest. He's on pace for 34-35 touchdowns, the fourth-highest of his career.

Those are just the really major stats. What about touchdown percentage (4th-best), one of the components of the passer rating formula? Or yards per completion (ninth-best), the closest stat we have to "degree of difficulty" for QBs? It's even grimmer for rushing yards (worst of his career) and rushing TDs (he doesn't have any). Same story on sacks per game (14th-best). What Collinsworth said is absolutely untrue. And remember, Favre tanks in December, so it's only going to get worse.

And it does get worse. After the game, discussing this year's MVP race, Cris claimed, "If you just go statistically, among the three quarterbacks, it's not close. Brett Favre's statistically had the best year."

That doesn't seem right, does it? Better than Peyton Manning and Drew Brees? Wow! That would be a great argument for Favre, if it were true. It isn't.

This is obvious pretty quickly:

			Yards	TDs	Rating
P.Manning		3,685	25	101.9
D.Brees		3,536	29	111.3
Cris's BFF		3,149	26	108.5

The TDs and passer ratings are all comparable, but someone is way behind in yardage. "It's not close?" That's true, but only because Brees and Manning are way ahead. Favre doesn't lead in any of the most important passing statistics. Brees and Manning also lead Favre in yards/att, yards/comp, completion percentage, sacks, and sack yardage. He's ahead of the pair in only one major category, interception percentage. Collinsworth's first statement may have been just an irresponsible, unprofessional exaggeration. This one — "It's not close. Brett Favre's statistically had the best year." — is an outright lie. That's strong language, because I believe this was a knowing and deliberate lie.

In fact, let's go deeper to see how far down the chart of quarterback MVP candidates we'd need to go to make Collinsworth not be a liar:

		Yards	TDs	Rating
T.Brady	3,638	22	96.9
P.Rivers	3,311	21	104.9
B.Favre	3,149	26	108.5

Brady and Rivers have more yardage, plus they lead in hidden statistics like rushing (both have TDs on the ground) and sacks. Remember, Collinsworth said, "If you just go statistically, among the three quarterbacks, it's not close." This is close. In fact, I think Brady and Rivers have had better statistical seasons than every announcer's favorite John Deere wrangler. Keep in mind also that Minnesota has played the softest schedule in the league and that Favre is awful in December. His stats will just go downhill from here.

		Yards	TDs	Rating
M.Schaub	3,449	22	97.2
A.Rodgers	3,399	25	103.3
B.Favre	3,149	26	108.5

Honestly, Rodgers and Schaub's stats are just as good as those of Brady and Rivers. Let's keep trying to make an honest man of Collinsworth, slightly larger group this time.

		Yards	TDs	Rating
T.Romo	3,325	20	96.3
Big Ben	3,145	19	100.2
K.Warner	3,003	23	100.7
B.Favre	3,149	26	108.5

Okay, now I think Favre is clearly ahead at least on pure stats. But by enough that it's "not even close"? Ehh, that still seems pretty close to me.

		Yards	TDs	Rating
E.Manning	2,925	20	89.2
D.McNabb	2,427	16	94.7
B.Favre	3,149	26	108.5

Okay, Cris. You've got me. It's not close. Brett Favre's statistically had a better year than Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb. And we only had to go through Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kurt Warner to get here. Liar.

On a non-Collinsworth note, we learned on Monday night that The Greatest Quarterback Ever to Play and the Greatest Person Ever to Walk this Earth has three 14-point comebacks in his 19-year career, a total of 307 games. Peyton Manning has four 14-point comebacks in the last two seasons, a span of 28 games. I wrote last week that "the Colts go down 17, and you figure they're still probably going to win." When Minnesota fell behind 27-10, did anyone think the Vikings would pull it out? Favre is not half the field general Manning is, and he trails Brees in every primary passing statistic. He's not a reasonable MVP candidate, and anyone who says he is has an agenda.

Sorry about the rant, but hopefully I've set the record straight. Let's move on to this week's rankings. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. Indianapolis Colts [2] — See-sawing with New Orleans for the top spot. The Colts have gone 12-0 against a much more impressive schedule. Their opponents are a combined 65-79 (.451), and only one is worse than 5-7 (the Rams, whom Indy beat 42-6). The Saints' opponents are 56-88 (.389), and they've faced the 2-10 Lions, 1-11 Rams, and 1-11 Buccaneers, as well as 4-8 Buffalo and 3-9 Washington.

2. New Orleans Saints [1] — They didn't win; Washington lost. If the Saints don't recover a freak bounce on a terrible punt, they lose. If Kareem Moore tries even a little bit to protect the ball on that interception return, the Saints lose. If Shaun Suisham hits a 23-yard field goal, the Saints lose. Nothing New Orleans did caused Suisham to miss that kick; the Saints just got lucky. Moore's bad decision doesn't make New Orleans a better team. This wasn't a great team finding a way to win, it was a great team laying an egg and getting lucky. They got a couple of big plays out of the offense, but didn't play well on defense. Jason Campbell had a career day and Washington scored 30 points for the first time in two years. Those injuries in the defensive backfield seem to be an issue, after all.

3. San Diego Chargers [3] — Defense had a disappointing game statistically, but most of that was in the fourth quarter, when they were already up 27-7. The Chargers have won seven in a row and have scored at least 30 points in four consecutive games. Philip Rivers might be the third-best quarterback in the league right now. Apart from Brees and Manning, I don't think there's anyone I'd rather have, including Brady. Best QBs in the NFL five years from now: Rivers and Aaron Rodgers.

4. Arizona Cardinals [10] — What a game from their receivers. Larry Fitzgerald (143 yards, TD) broke 5 tackles on one play. Anquan Boldin (98 yards, 2 TD) beat tight coverage, grabbed a pass with one hand, deked Tyrell Johnson to the ground, and outran everyone else. Steve Breaston started the Cardinals' rally with a 64-yard punt return. As great as Arizona's offense was, the defense was even better. They shut down Adrian Peterson (13 carries for 19 yards, the second-lowest total of his career) and made 2 big interceptions. The good tackling was especially impressive, and the front seven played at an extremely high level. Two players who quietly had very good games: blocking TE Ben Patrick and punter Ben Graham.

5. Green Bay Packers [11] — Won a strange, ugly game, only the fourth in NFL history with over 300 combined penalty yards. Both teams were called for double-digit penalties and well over 100 yards in infractions. The Packers won this game with their quarterback and their defense. Rodgers made big plays with both his arm (263 yards, 3 TD) and his legs (31 yards and 2 first downs). He threw 2 interceptions, but one was basically a punt and the other was a freak deflection. Even more than Rodgers, though, credit the defense. Green Bay gained almost twice as many yards as the Ravens (350-185) and forced 4 turnovers. Rookie LB Clay Matthews III had the best game of his young career.

6. Tennessee Titans [5] — I dropped them behind Arizona, whom they beat last week, because the Cardinals were missing Kurt Warner for that one. But the Titans have still won five of their last six, with the loss to a team nobody has beaten. Chris Johnson rushed for 117 yards and caught 6 passes this week, and we all said he slowed down. Johnson has rushed for 1,041 yards in the last seven games. People are talking about 2,000 yards, but the mark I'm really keeping my eye on is 6.40, Jim Brown's 1963 single-season record for yards per carry. Johnson is at 6.18, and catching Brown would be more impressive than two grand. Tennessee's next three games are all at home.

7. Minnesota Vikings [4] — I've been saying it all season. They're more lucky than good, they're not a great team, but they'll get to 10-1 because of the schedule, half their wins came against teams that were 1-8, they haven't had to deal with injuries. The Vikings are a good team, and though they haven't shown that they can beat top competition, they are better than we saw last night. The Cardinals played great, and they were a bad matchup for Minnesota. Clearly, though, this team still has a ways to go. The secondary is vulnerable.

8. Cincinnati Bengals [7] — The focus is all on the offense, which ranks 18th in the league. Who cares about Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson, and Sideshow Chad? How about this defense, fourth in yards allowed and leading the NFL in fewest points allowed? Let's talk about Jonathan Fanene, who returned an interception for a touchdown this weekend. Let's talk CBs Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, with a combined nine interceptions. Let's talk rookie linebacker Rey Maualuga, who has a sack and two forced fumbles. Or fellow rookie Michael Johnson, a backup DE who has used his 6'7" height to deflect 4 passes, a stat that places him in elite company. They're the reason this team is 9-3.

9. Philadelphia Eagles [12] — Played their first really impressive game in a month, but they're 1-3 against teams with winning records. Michael Vick, who was in on six plays, got the headlines after their 34-7 win. And deservingly so! Did you see his 85-yard interception return for a touchdown? Oh, that wasn't him? Well, he made that other interception, though. That was Sean Jones? Hey, he had that 59-yard pass play to Leonard Weaver. That was Donovan McNabb? Okay, but he threw the 56-yarder to Jeremy Maclin. For real, that was McNabb, too? Vick ran a ton, though, right? 17 yards, same as McNabb? Man, what the hell were we fussing about Vick for?

10. Denver Broncos [19] — This team obviously had a very happy Thanksgiving. The Broncos started 6-0, then turned mysteriously terrible in November, going 0-4 and getting outscored 117-37. The Browns were starting to feel sorry for them. Then Thanksgiving rolls around, and they're on a two-game win streak, up 70-19 on their opponents. I don't understand what was going on for those four weeks, but apparently it's over. Denver overcame three Kyle Orton turnovers for an easy win over Kansas City this week. If the Broncos can win remaining home games against the Raiders and Chiefs, they'll get to 10-6 and probably qualify for the playoffs.

11. Baltimore Ravens [9] — This wasn't a good matchup for Baltimore, but there's reason for larger concern. Joe Flacco's decision-making was not good on Monday night, especially in the second half. In fact, it seems to have been getting worse all season. I don't know if he's overconfident, confused, or just trying to do too much, but it's a problem. The issue that's been there all season is the secondary. This team struggles in pass defense even when Ed Reed is healthy. WR Derrick Mason drew his second unsportsmanlike conduct foul of the season for arguing a call with an official. You very rarely see that sort of call. I don't know what Mason says to those guys, but it must be naaasty.

12. Dallas Cowboys [8] — Ahh, December. When the weather gets crisp, Romo gets criticized after a 392-yard, 3-TD, no-turnover performance, and Wade Phillips dresses up as the Michelin Man. Until Romo is the one who rushed for 45 yards on 23 attempts, couldn't cover the Giants' receivers, and missed two field goals, let's give him a break on this one. I know he's underperformed at the end of past seasons, but he played great this weekend. The guy I'm looking at is Nick Folk. Two more field goals wouldn't have won the game, but Folk is missing way too often. The NFL should suspend Flozell Adams for starting a fight at halftime. How do you trail by four at the half after controlling time of possession for more than 21 minutes, anyway?

13. New England Patriots [6] — They don't typically struggle on the road. Since 2001, the Pats are 56-14 (.800) at home and 47-22 (.681) away. Everyone is somewhat better at home, so that's not a radical difference, about one game per season. The last four years, New England actually had an equal or better record on the road. But this season, the Patriots are 6-0 at home and 0-5 away, which is a stunning disparity. They're also 1-0 at neutral sites, beating the Buccaneers in London. I expect a big, ugly win at home against the Panthers this week.

14. Miami Dolphins [16] — Chad Henne didn't play well last week, but he responded with the first 300-yard passing day of his career and helped one Bill Parcells disciple (Dolphins coach Tony Sparano) best another (New England HC Bill Belichick). As long as I'm at it, this was also Wolverine vs. Wolverine, as both Tom Brady and Henne went to Michigan. Henne doesn't look like the next Dan Marino, but the Dolphins are 6-3 with him as starter.

15. New York Giants [17] — Only the second win in their last seven, but it was a big one. As long as I'm defending Romo this week, here's another QB who's worse than him in December: Eli Manning.

Romo in December: 303-500, 60.6%, 3,387 yards, 6.8/att, 17 TD, 19 INT, 76.3 rating

Eli in December: 240-450, 53.3%, 2,714 yards, 6.0/att, 18 TD, 11 INT, 74.8 rating

Every September, Eli comes out guns-a-blazing, and people talk about how he's finally turned the corner. Every November, he comes back to earth. He's inaccurate, his decision-making is bad, he panics under pressure. This September, Eli put up a 104.1 passer rating. Since then, 84.5. That's not Jake Delhomme, but it ain't Peyton, either. His interception in the end zone this week easily could have cost New York the game. Eli is a decent starter, but he's never going to be a great quarterback. If it was going to happen, it would have happened by now.

16. Washington Redskins [23] — I try to be consistent. When a team we think is good, like Baltimore, loses a bunch of tough games in a row, they stay high in the rankings and we sympathize, "What a brutal schedule." When a team we think is bad, like Washington, does the same thing, we should treat them the same way. They haven't played a team with a losing record since Week 6. In the last four weeks, they've beaten Denver and lost to Dallas (by 1), Philadelphia (by 3), and New Orleans (in overtime). Washington is playing well, and I wouldn't want them on my schedule right now, especially when they're at home. Levi Jones at left tackle has made a positive difference.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [21] — If they beat Miami this week, they'll probably make the playoffs. Jacksonville deserves credit for playing hard, and a playoff berth would probably save Jack Del Río's job. But this just isn't a very good team. They're 7-5, yeah, but everyone they've beaten has a losing record. They've been outscored. They have five very close, arguably lucky wins.

18. Houston Texans [13] — This loss came down to the absences of Matt Schaub and Steve Slaton. While Schaub was out with a shoulder injury, the Texans went down 17-0. He came back, and they made an 18-6 rally that almost won the game. Houston had 3 interceptions this week, and Schaub only threw one of them. Since the beginning of last season, they're 13-12 when Slaton starts and 0-3 when he doesn't. The loss on Sunday was a little bit of a fluke, but it's their fourth in a row and probably eliminated them from playoff contention.

19. San Francisco 49ers [15] — Started 3-1, 2-6 since. They're 4-2 at home, but 1-5 on the road. Lost fumbles and lack of rushing game really hurt them this weekend. Repeatedly faced with third-and-long, the Niners converted only 1/13 third downs. Frank Gore either isn't healthy or isn't getting enough touches.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers [14] — They're 4-1 with Troy Polamalu, 3-0 when he plays the whole game. Without him, they're 2-5. Polamalu leads the team in interceptions despite having played for less than half the season. Hines Ward hurt his hamstring this week and is "very questionable" for Week 14. Some teammates are questioning, it's just a hammy. Come on, Ward, this is almost like a playoff game. Obviously, Ward is just soft.

21. New York Jets [22] — Does there come a point at which the quarterbacks in a game are so bad that whichever team just passes less will win? After an uncharacteristically good first half from rookie QB Mark Sanchez, the Jets were up 16-10. Sanchez sprained his knee halfway through the third quarter and was replaced by Kellen Clemens. Clemens threw only 2 passes in the final 22:42 — more than a third of the game — but the Jets' defense held and they ran the ball effectively enough to close out a victory. Clemens was also sacked 3 times, for a remarkable sack rate of 60%. Sanchez, with the same linemen and the same opponent, was a little under 12%. The Jets are good enough to beat bad teams with their running game and turnover-free QB play. Against good teams, though, that's not enough, and they can't manage the turnover-free QB thing anyway.

22. Carolina Panthers [20] — With Jake Delhomme on the sidelines, Carolina watched an opposing quarterback throw 5 interceptions. You're always happy to get a win without your starting QB and stud running back, but this was a not a strong performance against one of the worst teams in the league. The Panthers were out-gained by 160 yards.

23. Atlanta Falcons [18] — Yeah, this is a harsh rank for a 6-6 team. That was the old Falcons. They started 4-1; they're 2-5 since, and the defense has dropped to 28th in the league. They haven't beaten a team with more than 3 wins since October 18th, and they haven't beaten anyone with a winning record all season.

24. Seattle Seahawks [26] — Not the most impressive win ever, but they made more of their opportunities than San Francisco did. Seattle has won two in a row for the first time all year.

25. Oakland Raiders [28] — Whoa, Bruce Gradkowski, where did that come from? Gradkowski is 2-1 as starter for a team that was 2-7 with JaMarcus Russell, but I wonder if we aren't jumping the gun a little by getting excited about him. Russell had a game like that less than a year ago (236 yards, 2 TDs, 128.1 rating) against Houston. If Gradkowski goes off like that again against Washington or Denver in the next couple weeks, then I'll get plenty excited. Oakland seems to play to the level of its competition. Against teams with losing records, they're 1-2 (.333) and have been outscored 55-29 (1.9:1). Against teams at or above .500, they're 3-6 (.333) and have been outscored 227-113 (2.0:1). That's almost exactly equal.

26. Buffalo Bills [25] — Started the season 1-4 with Trent Edwards at QB. Since then, Edwards has played part of two games, but it's mostly been Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Buffalo is 3-4. But can I suggest that Buffalo won those three games because they intercepted Sanchez, Delhomme, Henne, and Ricky Williams a combined 12 times? Fitzpatrick flatly is not as good as Edwards. I know he gets the ball to T.O., I know he went to Harvard. He can't play. Fitzpatrick has twice as many INTs as TDs and his passer rating is 15 points lower than Edwards'.

27. Chicago Bears [27] — Punter Brad Maynard, who has one pass for 0 yards, has a higher passer rating (79.2) than Jay Cutler (75.3). Does that tell us more about the flaws in the rating system, or Cutler? I'll go system, but Cutler has been a monumental disappointment. I draw no conclusions from their win over St. Louis this weekend. If you lose to the Rams at home, you're ... well, I suppose you're the Lions.

28. Kansas City Chiefs [24] — Looking for something positive to say about this team after its second straight blowout loss to a division rival. The Chiefs have actually won three of their last seven games since an 0-5 start. Tamba Hali had 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against Denver, both of the fumbles recovered by Glenn Dorsey.

29. Detroit Lions [31] — This offense is ready to be good. Calvin Johnson is an elite receiver and Kevin Smith is a good running back. Once Matthew Stafford grows up a little, they could really make some waves. The issue is the defense, which made a couple plays this week but gives up way too much. Address that in the offseason, and the Lions could surprise some people. They're years away from being a contender, but probably only one or two from respectability — if they handle their business in the offseason.

30. St. Louis Rams [29] — Here's something nice: they haven't gotten blown out in a month and a half. The last five games have all been single-digit losses, plus their lone win.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [30] — You're not going to win any time you throw 3 red zone interceptions. Tampa did some good things in this game, but it's tough to lose like that when you play well for most of the game.

32. Cleveland Browns [32] — Last in the NFL in yards gained, worst in the league in yards allowed.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:59 AM | Comments (13)

The Hidden Exhibition Season

Every August, story-starved fans and journalists bemoan the NFL preseason. We're so excited to see those uniforms go through their ballet of violence we're willing to overlook the putrid performances by backups and never-will-bes — but only for a few minutes. After that, the chorus of complaints range from the gameday costs to the threat of injury.

So why don't we voice the same complaints about college basketball's exhibition season?

Take a quick peek at the results in this young college hoops campaign. Already this season, Michigan State has beaten Gonzaga (who then lost to unranked Wake Forest) and lost to North Carolina and Florida. The Tar Heels, as mentioned, have beaten Michigan State in addition to beating Ohio State. Duke beat UConn, and all of that information combined might suggest the ACC is better than the Big Ten, but Duke fell at Wisconsin and the Big Ten squeaked out the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

Given these schizophrenic results, it's as if these teams are reliant on young, inexperienced talent capable of beating or losing to anyone on any day. Oh, I guess they do. Thanks, David Stern!

College basketball is dominated by the NBA age-limit. Coaches now not only have to try to understand the maddening whims that dictate where an 18-year-old goes to school, but also if that 18-year-old will turn into a 19-year-old aspiring NBAer. Statistics, especially in the smallest doses, can be dead wrong, but consider this coincidence: the age limit began in 2005; Duke has not had a one-and-done draft entrant; Duke hasn't been past the Sweet 16 since 2004.

True, North Carolina and Michigan State reached last year's title game with mostly multi-year players. But for fans, it's the promise of one-and-done saviors that puts pressure squarely on coaches. Kentucky missed the tournament for the first time in almost two decades last year. The solution? Bring in John Calipari and his stable of blue-chippers, and now the Cats are ranked in the top five, coming off a big win over the Heels Saturday. And by this time next year, at least half the roster will probably be playing professionally and a new wave of recruits will fill those blue jerseys.

The problem is the constant turnover makes it hard to evaluate what we're watching, especially early in the season. But because these games count, the results stick all the way to March. When it comes time to compare teams' resumes for the tournament, we'll all pretend like these games matter as much as a hard-fought conference road win in February.

For instance, Syracuse's win over North Carolina last month was an impressive rout on a neutral floor. But that Carolina team looked like the local team from an And1 Tour stop, a group of superior athletes assembled hours before the game. Do you think Roy Williams would like another shot at the Orange in January, when the Tar Heels know one other's games better (or at least their teammates names)?

If nothing else, the tournament selection committee needs to mix much larger grains of salt into their consideration of these early-season games. Yes, everyone has to work through unfamiliarity at some point. But because the game's best players have mostly only been on campus for a few months when the season starts, their teams are at an extreme disadvantage in the season's first weeks.

Early season non-conference mega-matchups might be fun for fans, coaches, and players, but it's time to recognize what they are: meaningless. That is, unless you count the bags of cash they generate for sponsors and broadcast partners.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

December 7, 2009

LeBron Develops Kevin Garnett Syndrome

Two things happened this week in the NBA that I didn't think we'd see this season: Someone stood up to LeBron, and Joakim Noah did something that wasn't really irritating.

Don't believe me? Here's video of Joakim Noah calling out LeBron James for dancing while he was at the free throw line.

Let's make one thing clear; I'm not a Joakim Noah guy. For as annoying as LeBron's dancing antics are, Joakim Noah's over-the-top theatrics are just as bad.

But in this case, Noah was absolutely right to call LeBron out. Someone needed to. It might as well be someone who knows a little something about bad dancing.

There's a fine line between being a fun-loving team and being disrespectful. This season, LeBron and the Cavs have really blurred the line between being entertaining and being obnoxious.

It you want to dance in the hallway before you take the floor to get yourself pumped up, or during the introductions of the starting lineups to get the crowd into a frenzy, I'm all for it.

If you want to celebrate after a good play, or cheer like Mark Madsen on the bench after your team scores, be my guest.

But there has to be has to be some common sense involved.

Come on, LeBron. You're at home, up 20 points against a struggling Bulls team, is it really necessary to dance on the sidelines and rub it in? Did you really need to shimmy before you took those dagger free throws?

I know, I know. There's a simple solution for the Bulls: don't suck. If the game had been close, LeBron would have had no reason to celebrate and everyone would have lived happily ever after. I get that.

But that still doesn't excuse LeBron for acting like a clown all game.

Ask yourself this: if the Cavs were up 20 on the Lakers, Celtics, or Magic, do you think LeBron would still be dancing like that? Absolutely not.

It's called Kevin Garnett Syndrome, or KGS.

In case you're not familiar with KGS, here's its entry on Dictionary.com:

Main Entry: Kevin Garnett Syndrome
Function: noun

: a condition that that effects NBA superstars in a way in which they feel that they need to assert their dominance over inferior, lesser, smaller, or weaker opponents by showboating and/or instigating a conflict during an NBA game.

As you can see, Kevin Garnett is at the forefront of NBA players with KGS. After all, since he went to Boston, he's become the biggest bully in the NBA. Look at some of his KGS episodes in the past few seasons.

There was the "finger wag at you because I've played in All-star Games and you haven't" move that he pulled on Jose Calderon last season.

Then there was the always classic "I'm going to push you because you're European, and I assume all Europeans are soft" move K.G. applied to ZaZa Pachulia.

As the second video demonstrates, there is a very easy way to tell if a player is just in the heat of the moment or if he suffers from KGS. A fiery player will need to be restrained because he has lost his cool.

A player with KGS makes sure that there are a large number of people (teammates, officials, coaches, ect.) between he and the victim before he continues his antics, as seen at the 0:23 second mark of LeBron vs. Noah and the 0:10 second mark of Garnett vs. Pachulia.

LeBron and Garnett may have the most severe cases of KGS in the league, but there are plenty of other suffers.

LeBron's new teammate, Shaq, was diagnosed with KGS earlier this decade, as seen here in his freestyle rap about the fourth-best player on the rival Sacramento Kings, Vlade Divac.

Sometimes, a player's emotions get the best of him, and the KGS doesn't kick in until it's too late, as seen here by Carmelo Anthony's punch/80-foot retreat on the great Mardy Collins.

By the time Melo's KGS kicked in, it was too late. It wasn't until after he sucker-punched Mardy Collins that Carmelo realized that there wasn't a large group of people (teammates, officials, coaches, ect.) to keep him out of harm's way. The result was a 15-game suspension for Carmelo.

Had his KGS kicked in in time, 'Melo could have saved himself 15 games and a whole lot of money.

Of course, much like there is a difference between having the flu and having flulike symptoms, there is a difference between having KGS and having KGS symptoms.

Michael Jordan has been involved in some epic trash talk battles in his day, and some of the most memorable have been against very worthy adversaries.

However, even the G.O.A.T. suffered from bouts of KGS in his career, and we need to look no further than his Hall of Fame induction speech as proof.

Back to LeBron. I never thought I'd say this, but Joakim Noah is right. LeBron's act is old.

LeBron is, and has been for a few years, the best player in the NBA; at worst, he ranks at 1B behind Kobe Bryant. His game more than speaks for itself. It's time to put the Brett Favre look-at-how-much-fun-I'm-having act out to pasture.

When you flirt with a triple-double every night, all eyes are going to be on you. There's no need to bring more attention to yourself by dancing and carrying on on the sidelines during a blowout.

No one is saying that LeBron should play a joyless brand of basketball. After all, it's a game; games are supposed to be fun.

But there's also an issue of sportsmanship, an issue LeBron is well aware of after "handshake-gate" that occurred at the conclusion of the Orlando series last season.

I have no problem with LeBron not shaking hands after a devastating loss. To me, that was no big deal.

But to kick a bad team while they are down 20 points on your own home floor, well, that just reeks of KGS.

It's time for LeBron to grow up. Or, at worst, pick on someone his own size.

Scott Shepherd writes about the NBA every Monday for Sports Central. His blog, Diary of an NBA Junkie, is updated several times a week.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:54 AM | Comments (10)

Tigermania 2.0: How This All Will Help Golf

"Hello world." Remember that? That was how Tiger introduced his professional career at the Greater Milwaukee Open in 1996. Some 13 years later, the phrase is now being retooled to explain the revelations of Tiger Woods' extramarital activities.

"I am Tiger Woods." The captivating Nike ad that came out in 1997 now takes on a completely different meaning. Recasting that ad in 2009 would star guys like John Edwards and Kobe Bryant. It would probably be an ad that most parents wouldn't want their kids to see.

Still, for all of the disappointment that has been expressed about Woods' activities — and the actions of those looking to capitalize off of his fame and fortune — there has probably never been more interest in golf. Ever.

Forget the Win for the Ages. Never mind the Tiger Slam.

Because of Tiger Woods' accident, rumor mill, and subsequent confession, golf has never had more eyes even indirectly affixed on it.

The hype and the follow through in 1996-97 that resulted in a record Masters win for Woods put golf on the sporting and pop culture map in a way it had not seen for the better part of 50 years. An African-American won the Masters and was dominating the sport from the get go. Millions took up the game to be like Tiger. That sudden surge in popularity during a throbbing economy made land developers see golf as a great investment. Money poured into the amateur and professional game in way we never saw.

Now Tiger's doing it again. After a six-win comeback season on the PGA Tour, Woods brought eyes back to the on-course game. Ratings for events he played in this year were double and triple those of 2008 when he couldn't play. Tiger was swooping in at just the right time to keep golf relevant.

Apparently, that was just the beginning.

Tiger Woods is the lead story or near the top story of almost every major news outlet in the country. Fueled originally by conjecture and rumor, Tiger's revelation that at least some of what has been said is true has taken the story to another level.

You'll learn about all of Tiger's women — their addresses, pictures, criminal backgrounds, and how they look in their underwear. Elin's new prenup will have its details leaked. It's all going to come out.

I loathe to mention it, but the Counting Crows' "Long December" is going to be the theme song of the month for Camp Tiger.

And you know what? That — believe it or not — is great for golf. Or at least the business of golf.

Tiger is widely expected to make the PGA Tour's event at Torrey Pines in San Diego in late January 2010 to be his first on-course appearance since this whole thing started.

Buy your tickets now. Seriously. That tournament at Torrey Pines will attract more media and more fans than any golf tournament in recent memory.

Golf fans will want to know how Tiger will react after all of this. There is speculation that Woods' missed cut at the British Open this year had something to do with this affair. My guess is that this situation will provide Woods with a sanctuary on the course, in his zone, where he can forget the hell his life has quickly become.

Six wins in a comeback season and the FedEx Cup? May as well book him for 10 next year.

Thousands of money-grubbing women will show up to PGA Tour events across the country, just praying that they have the lucky charms to woe Tiger like Jaimee, Rachel, and whoever else has supposedly already done so.

The general public will be interested to see how Tiger responds on and off of the course. Will people heckle him? How will the media treat him? Could Tiger conceivably blow off media altogether?

Will Tiger throw more clubs and drop more f-bombs when things don't go so well? Or was his behavior that was so admonished this summer some manifestation of what had to be churning inside of him?

There are so many questions about Tiger Woods that golf will experience a second boom because of this situation. Call it Tigermania 2.0.

If you asked any pro golfer, Tour sponsor, or PGA Tour official, they would rightly tell you that they would not want to capitalize on the mistakes made by Tiger and the pain caused to his family and reputation. But it is hard to deny that there stands to be an audience for the game — at least in the short term — that could not have been created any other way.

This doesn't mean that there will be the Ashley Madison Open next season, though the Torrey Pines event needs a title sponsor. It doesn't mean that your C-level PGA Tour pro will get endorsement deals just in the happenstance that they get paired with Tiger. No. But the public's interest in Woods and, by extension, golf will likely return to levels only seen twice in his storied career.

It is hard to conceive sometimes how bad news can turn out to be a positive. Still, consider how this situation has played out so far. Everyone has won except Tiger — the media of all kinds, Jaimee Grubbs and Rachel Uchitel got paid, Elin's going to get paid, and golf is going to see a new and perhaps unwanted audience.

Perhaps, then, Tiger will play so well on course because he knows it may well be the only place that he can come out a winner. And that is a scary prospect for his PGA Tour competition.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 11:15 AM | Comments (0)

December 5, 2009

Tiger is Still Better Than You

Have you had your fill of Tiger Woods talk yet? If not, allow me to sum up what we're really dealing with here. The economy. When you boil this whole saga down to its essence, you get an incredibly self-aware man that knows what this country needs.

Tiger has an acute awareness of how the 24/7 news cycle works. It's vicious, it's unfair, and it is irresponsible, on its best day.

He must also have an incredible handle on how the news business is falling apart. Like any American, I'm almost certain he knows how tough things are for most people.

So, Tiger did what any American hero would do, he threw himself to the wolves. The evidence is right in front of us and is easily deciphered by a clever man. Woods had one of the cleanest slates in contemporary sports history.

The closest complaint anyone had about Tiger involved either his overwhelming athletic gifts or his propensity to curse on a golf course, as if that's not relatable to anyone that's played golf, ever.

And if there's one thing people like more than anything, it's tearing down the good guys. Everyone loves to yell "see! see!" to those "he's too good to be true" stories.

The worst impulses in people are fed by the constant attention this story receives.

The average consumer, unfortunately, is fairly predictable. That's why reality TV is so successful. That's why ironic people like to hate it and complain about it. There's not a better cliché to sum up this cliché than with the poignant "It is what it is."

Tiger knows what it is. He knows a story about the dark side of the clean-shaven superstar will sell newspapers. He shrewdly knew that one affair would make a story for a day, but that multiple affairs that could be discovered over time could feed the monster like the succession of Chinese firecrackers.

Nothing has united this country quite like the Tiger Woods saga. Office secretaries, whose sports acumen is limited to astonishingly accurate NCAA brackets, are throwing around one-liners on Tiger like they are writers for Jay Leno.

Speaking of Leno, we're now subjected to approximately 32 weeks of jokes like this, from a recent show.

"Mrs. Tiger Woods is a 19 — a 10 with a 9-iron."

If I may be allowed a counterpoint, Jay — you're a 4. A 1 with three chins — boom! How's it taste?

That was childish, I know. But as one of the few people that refuses to feign indignation about a man that has had an affair, I find myself trying to oppose this tidal wave of hate.

I gave an interview to FOX News about the situation and tried to take the complete opposite side of this situation, just so we could live up to the fair and balanced slogan they love so dearly. I argued my point eloquently, that I care only if Woods is a good golfer, not if he's a good husband. That I only care about his driving on the golf course, and not when it comes to driveway obstacle-courses.

I should stay above the fray, but I'm not strong enough. I realize Woods, in the ultimate self-sacrifice, orchestrated this debacle to give America something to believe in. To give America something to take pride in. Even the best can fail.

His well cultivated plan to fall on his own sword is noble. But even that has a flair of Tiger to it.

Sure, he cheated on his wife, what makes him different than David Letterman or Steve Phillips, who have both made waves recently with their marital indiscretions? It's his competitive streak. He didn't just have an affair with a homely production assistant or whatever passed over freak-show he could find, he put together a resume that can't be topped by mere mortals when it comes to affairs.

That's the only thing that puts a smile on my face. The casual golfer, who spends his weekends decapitating blades of grass while cursing his inability to mimic Woods excellence on the golf course, can laugh as much as he wants at Woods' expense.

Because now there's another bar Tiger has set and that's cheating on his wife. This weekend warrior will someday realize that no matter what happens in his life, he will never be able to execute a string of affairs like Tiger Woods. He may get lucky and bang the babysitter or some drunk intern at the company Christmas party, but that man will spend his soul-searching hours of loneliness cursing Woods yet again.

Because anything he can do, Tiger can do better.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 11:55 AM | Comments (0)

Will '09 Be the Year of the Undefeateds?

How often is it that you get to see two perfect storms at once, both operating differently, independently, yet in sync?

The New Orleans Saints are a staggering 11-0 going into December. For a franchise with no Super Bowl appearances that have long been known as the 'Aints, this team has been as spectacular and dominant as any before it. Immortality is tantalizingly within its grasp.

The Indianapolis Colts are a puzzling 11-0 going into December. For them, the unbeaten thing is old hat (13-0 in '05 and 10-0 in '06), but this team defies the odds every week when it continues their streak. Only four of their 11 victories have been by more than a touchdown. Perhaps they are the first team to reach this elite mark that would not be considered dominant.

In college, it's not only common, it's expected. Every year, there are often one, if not two, undefeated teams playing for the championship and even a few extra (albeit frustrated) unbeatens to spare. This year in college football, we see no less than six unbeaten teams going into the regular season's final week, although by Saturday's SEC Championship Game, that number will be cut to at least five. However, in the pros, it inevitably creates a nationwide buzz.

For continuous excitement and drama throughout a season, nothing captures an NFL fan's fancy more than a team making a bid for immortality and going undefeated. Two years ago, the Patriots captured a nation's imagination by obliterating the league at a record rate while wearing the black hats of the bad guys en route to the first ever 16-0 regular season. Even that team needed to win four dramatic come-from-behind games in the final minutes to achieve the mark.

The long-introduced gold standard, the '72 Dolphins of Mercury Morris (who has since remained relevant and become infamous by his mere bragging prowess on behalf of that team) pulled off this feat much the way the Colts are going about it right now. It has been said that at no point in their '72 campaign did those Dolphins look unbeatable. Each year, though, they puff out their chests and drink some champagne when the last unbeaten team loses. In December 2009, however, they have not one, but two reasons to worry.

The Colts started their season with the stunning news that longtime star receiver Marvin Harrison had been cut from the team. They would be forced to depend on the likes of second-year receiver Pierre Garcon to step up in his absence and the reliable Reggie Wayne to take over as Peyton's number one big-play threat (both have made good). This added to the fact that a rookie coach named Jim Caldwell was taking over for the great and honorable Tony Dungy, who retired, and Indy was already up against it before they even stepped on the field.

This seemed to explain their Week 1 game, an innocuous 14-12 win at home against division rival Jacksonville. Now even Peyton Manning was struggling to score points, said the critics. This was followed up by a 4-point Monday Night win at Miami in which Dolphins receiver Ted Ginn, Jr. dropped a pass in the end zone on the game's final drive that would have finished the Colts before they ever really got started. The game was also notable for the fact that Indy won despite only having the ball for 15 of the game's 60 minutes.

The Colts followed this with all four of their dominant wins in consecutive games before embarking on their current streak of 5 nail-biting wins. Along the way, they were helped out by Patriots coach Bill Belichick going for it, and failing, on 4th-and-2 from their own 28 with the game on the line as New England squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead, and Texans kicker Kris Brown, who missed a 42-yard field goal as time expired that would have forced overtime. In the rematch against Houston, a stretch with under seven minutes left in the fourth quarter of 14 points in 15 seconds proved to make the difference in an 8-point road victory to clinch the AFC South in November, no small feat. It almost seems that each Colts win proves to be more of an escape than a victory, and somehow Peyton Manning's boys in blue have managed to pull off this Houdini act 11 times in a row.

And yet there is no rest for the weary Colts, who face three more tough opponents consecutively. The Tennessee Titans come to town riding a 5-game winning streak thanks to their switch at quarterback from Kerry Collins to Vince Young. From the ashes of 0-6, the Titans are now finally playing for something; a playoff berth is not far from their grasp. The Titans are followed by the 7-4 Broncos, and then a road game against division rival Jacksonville, which currently occupies the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture. Should they find a way to escape this stretch unscathed, they will finish with a stretch against the hapless Jets and Bills.

In addition, a 16-0 Colts team that has won the way it has may have the Cincinnatis and New Englands of the AFC playoffs salivating for a chance to end the streak when it counts. Their mantra may well be that Indy is due for a loss, and judging by how so many of these undefeated streaks end, they may well be right. By contrast, should the Colts survive this current stretch of challengers, their resolve may well be appropriately strengthened for January and perhaps that final game in February, as well.

One conference over, in the NFC South another elite quarterback leads his team without a loss, fresh off their most notable win of the season. Their 21-point trouncing of the Tom Brady-to-Randy Moss New England Patriots has sent the notice around the league that this team is indeed your worst nightmare come to life. By contrast to the Colts, the Saints won their first 6 games, as well as 9 out of 11 by double-digits.

Putting all phases of the game into place, the Saints' offensive line has essentially built a fortress around their king, Drew Brees, leaving him all kinds of time to air the ball out to his plentiful receiving weapons named Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey, and Robert Meachem with unrelenting efficiency. Often going unnoticed because of their passing prowess is the Saints' nearly equally efficient rushing attack, led by the three-headed monster of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush. At 4.7 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns this year, the Saints' ground game isn't much easier for opponents to take away.

The defense is solid all the way through, as well. Corner Darren Sharper has racked up 8 interceptions, 3 returned for touchdowns (one of them for 99 yards)m while defensive end Will Smith has gotten jiggy with opposing quarterbacks, picking up 10 sacks and forcing 3 fumbles.

Perhaps the Saints' first big win of the season came by 21 points against the then-5-0 Giants, who have yet to recover. The following week in Miami, New Orleans trailed 24-3 and later 34-24 going into the fourth quarter before winning by 12. The Falcons pushed them to an 8-point game with a chance to tie in the final seconds before a Sharper interception put that game away. Perhaps it was the otherwise-hapless St. Louis Rams who gave the Saints their toughest test out of all the teams, though. The Rams' defense forced 3 turnovers and trailed by only 5 with one play left from the Saints' 32, but Marc Bulger threw incomplete at the gun and the Saints' record remained sparkly-clean.

The Saints will face the Falcons again in Atlanta and will play Dallas on a Thursday night game that may be the best remaining chance for the loss column to change in New Orleans. Certainly, the games remaining against the Redskins, Bucs, and Panthers don't seem as threatening, although games involving division rivals are never predictable.

One added incentive for this Saints team to remain unbeaten is that they are not the only juggernaut team in the conference. The Minnesota Vikings, a team that features Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson in their finest seasons and looks to be every bit the menace this Saints team is, has only one loss this season. They continue to put the pressure on the Saints for that number one seed and precious home field throughout the playoffs. Indeed, it appears right now that the biggest threat to the Saints' undefeated streak may not come until the NFC Championship Game, where they may very well have to face off against these Vikings. The last thing the Saints want to do is allow Minnesota to host that game and any one slip-up in the regular season makes that a possibility.

The overall consensus is that the Saints have a considerably better chance at hitting 16-0 and going deeper in the postseason than the Colts, even with the Vikings lurking in the NFC shadows. For both the Saints and the Colts, there is one factor in their favor. Bad weather and cold weather games are far and few between for these teams that play their home games in domes and some of their road games in the NFC and AFC South, respectively. At this rate, the playoffs should feature only home games in their future, as well.

Except, of course, that big one at the neutral site. We can only hope to see both unbeaten teams make it there. Maybe we'll even get to see Mercury Morris cry.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:32 AM | Comments (0)

December 4, 2009

Sports Q&A: The Life of Tiger "Wood"

Tiger Woods' mysterious car accident last weekend, and the subsequent speculation, was an embarrassing situation in an otherwise sterling career. Will the truth of the matter ever emerge, and if so, will Woods' reputation be tarnished?

The more pressing question here is "Where in the heck was Steve Williams when this all went down?" Woods obviously could have used a second pair of eyes, and Williams is famous for his ability to read driveways just as well as greens.

Now, the true story will probably never be heard, at least from the mouth of Woods, so, it's up to the public, and TMZ.com, to piece together the various accounts and rumors into a believable, and juicy tale.

What is known is that early last Friday, Woods wrecked his Cadillac SUV just outside the driveway of his Isleworth home in Florida, hitting a fire hydrant and a tree in the process. That's not the least bit surprising — Woods' "driving" has always led to trouble. Then, according to Woods, his wife, Elin Nordegren, "rescued" him by breaking out the back window of the car with a golf club and pulling Woods out. This act, of course, is now known as the Nordegren "Open."

Is there more to the incident that just a minor car accident? Unless you're a triple-digit handicap in the IQ department, then it's easy to see some, and more likely many, facts are being withheld. Was there a domestic dispute preceding the accident? If so, did it stem from allegations that Woods had an extramarital affair, as reported by the National Enquirer? If that's so, was Nordegren simply trying to assess Woods a "stroke" penalty?

According to Woods, the accident was just that, an accident, and no one should read any further into it. On Tuesday, Woods was charged with a traffic violation, and fined $164. But the circumstances surrounding the accident would seem to indicate that there's much more to it. A 2:30 AM accident, in the driveway, not involving alcohol? That statement is fishy in itself, unless John Daly were somehow involved.

And why did Nordegren smash the windows of the vehicle to "free" Woods instead of just using the doors? Probably because Tiger didn't want to come out. Nothing is worse than the wrath of a woman scorned except for the wrath of a woman scorned who's holding a golf club. Witnesses at the scene say Woods had scratches on his face. Maybe Nordegren was utilizing good golfing etiquette and wanted simply to replace her divots. Unlike her husband, she's a "scratch" golfer. If Nordegren was, in fact, wielding the club as a weapon, then she undoubtedly boasted to Tiger of her "flexible shaft."

The "woman scorned" scenario seems to be the most logical. Recently, two other women have come forward and claim they had relationships with Woods, and Woods hasn't denied either. So, it seems that Woods' caddy wasn't the only one "on the bag." In fact, Woods apologized for his transgressions, which is a plural word. There's even an audio recording of Woods calling one of his mistresses and politely asking her to delete a phone number, for fear that Nordegren may be calling. This is just another example of Woods' uncanny scrambling ability.

As Tiger's "transgressions" come forward, it's become clear that all the ladies in Woods' life are gorgeous, and suddenly not too shy about revealing the details of their personal lives. As Woods is finding out, being "loose lipped" isn't always a good thing. In his defense, though, what golfer hasn't been tempted to switch to a "newer model" on occasion?

And there will probably be more mistresses coming forward to bask in their fleeting moment of fame. This is all like a series of bad shots for Woods — one minute, he's "laying three"; the next, 'he's "laying four." And so on.

So, should we respect Woods' pleas for privacy, or should we expect a moral obligation from him to come clean? Of course, we can't expect him to come clean — professional athletes have yet to learn their lessons in that respect. Just ask Mark McGwire or Roger Clemens. But a full confession would be in Woods' best interest. It's best the public knows all the details, before a sex tape emerges, or before Jose Canseco's next book is published. Known for his "backspin," Woods and his army of public relations soldiers, should put a positive spin on the issue.

How, you may ask? Here's how. With these 26 words, directly out of Woods' mouth: "If I can be this good of a golfer while juggling woman all over the globe, just think how good I'll be on a short leash." With Nordegren, clutching a golf club, by his side when he says this, would there be any doubt that Woods would be on the straight and narrow? A appearance on Larry King Live, and a stint on Oprah's coach, plus an adorable photo spread of Woods, Nordegren, and the kids in People magazine, and Tiger will seem downright virginal. Follow that up with a dominating win at the Masters, and a tearful winner's speech, flanked by the wife and kids, and Tiger will look so clean that the gossip-mongers will go looking for dirt on Ben Crenshaw.

Woods obviously built his near-unblemished reputation by hiding the truth, and taking the necessary precautions to ensure that his secret affairs remained as such. Now, he can only repair that reputation by telling all and asking, not begging, for forgiveness, from his fans. In all honesty, his fans probably could care less about an apology. What matters to them is that Woods' game doesn't suffer. The only apology mandatory is to Nordegren. It's not something that's easily forgiven, and if she decides to forgive, her dignity would then have to be questioned. But if there's a price on her dignity, it will be revealed in the details of a revamped prenuptial agreement. It's not as if Tiger made one simple mistake; he made several, and to keep it all "hush-hush," he surely had to pay out a substantial amount of "hush" money. If Woods can emerge from this with his reputation fully intact, then it would truly be the greatest "escape" of his career.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:50 AM | Comments (3)

What's in Store For the NHL?

Right now in the National Hockey League, Alexander Ovechkin's knee-to-knee hit that landed him a two-game suspension is all over the web. But lost in this mess of a star player earning a suspension for a dirty hit is that the league's commissioner, Gary Bettman, announced that the NHL will expand before relocating teams.

Interesting concept, Gary. Adding more teams to a league before relocating dying teams? I'm sure that will work out just fine. Now, though, Bettman said, isn't the time to expand the league because of the “economic climate.” Okay, that one makes sense.

But soon we'll be out of this recession and into a new era. That's good on many levels. But for the NHL, it means we will eventually see teams in:

Cleveland — This one I like. Here, we have a city with a rich history of rivers catching on fire. Events in the past are one way to name a team, so there is no problem with that: the Cleveland Conflagrations. And there is reason to think this team can be successful from the start. That's because with their first round pick in the expansion draft, the Conflagrations will select the king: LeBron James. He's saved basketball in Cleveland. He could have saved football in Cleveland. And now he can save hockey in Cleveland. It's a win-win-win.

Detroit — Yes, there is already a team in Motown. But if any city is going to be better after this recession, it will be Detroit. The newly formed Blagojeviches will play in the same arena as the Red Wings, Joe Louis Arena. They won't be nearly as successful as their cross-town rivals, but with Ford and General Motors finally inventing a street-legal hovercraft, the Blagojeviches will be among the league's most valuable franchises.

Quebec City — Desperate to get a team back in Canada, Bettman heads retro and reintroduces the Nordiques to the NHL. Unfortunately for Bettman — and Denver — every member of the Colorado Avalanche decides to sign with Quebec City. It's a de facto relocation and a frustrated Bettman hurries to save the Avalanche but to no avail. It's the first dark spot — excluding the Phoenix Coyotes' bankruptcy, the 2004-05 lockout, the Todd Bertuzzi incident, Brett Hull's foot and countless others — on the league in its 92-year history.

Europe — With moderate success good enough for Bettman, he will form one team in Europe after testing the market with exhibition and regular season NHL games overseas. But unable to make up his mind on where to place the new team, he has it rotate among three cities in Europe. Arguments among the different city leaders and the NHL create an awkward naming situation, as the European Nationals are the newest team to join the league. Due to time zones, traveling and costs, the Nationals play 41 consecutive home games before finishing the season with 41 consecutive away games.

There we go. A four-team expansion to the NHL. We all know that it's better to add to a broken system rather than fixing one — and nobody knows this better than the commissioner himself.

So, Gary, here are my suggestions for expansion. Take them seriously.

Posted by Jay Huerbin at 11:24 AM | Comments (1)

December 3, 2009

The Gall of Tiger Not Telling All

So Tiger Woods has come clean, sort of, about his extramarital affairs. I rather wish he hadn't, not because I'm not curious about the saga, but because this means Mike Lopresti gets what he wants.

Lopresti is a nationally syndicated columnist whose column is about how Tiger "owes" it to us to bare his soul and all the juicy details that go with it. It's such a breathtakingly wrongheaded column that it gets the dubious distinction of being my first fisking.

I've wanted to do a fisking for a long time. No one will likely fisk as hilariously well as the boys at FireJoeMorgan.com did. Kissing Suzy Kolber fisks Peter King once a week as a direct tribute to FJM, but it's just not the same.

Even the columnists I ruthlessly assail make enough good points or at least uncontroversial points that I've never taken an entire column to task in this space, so what Lopresti has accomplished is really special.

Before I tear into this, let me say up front that I have no sympathy for celebrities who bemoan their lack of privacy. They signed up for it when they agreed to do and keep doing the thing that makes them famous. But just as I don't begrudge the paparazzi for taking snapshots (as long as they don't endanger anyone's safety), I also don't begrudge the celebrities for trying to protect their privacy and their secrets.

Lopresti sees it differently.

Is there a room that could be borrowed for a press conference? Is a microphone handy? Good. Tiger, it's time. If not now, soon. The silence has been deafening, and it won't work. It really won't.

It won't work ... for what, exactly? If he doesn't want the world to know his darkest secrets, and his partner(s) in crime don't spill the beans either, than voila! The silence works!

Maybe he means it won't "work" in terms of getting himself off the front of the tabloids. 'Cause man, those entertainment-gossip consumers are notorious for their long attention spans.

Into each charmed life, some rain must fall, often accompanied by juicy headlines across the front of a tabloid or breathless new tidbits on a computer screen. That's when the chosen few of our landscape find out that anyone can get wet. That's when they discover how bulletproof they are, or aren't.

I think this paragraph was Lopresti's way of testing how many hackneyed cliches he could stuff into one paragraph and still get paid. And I don't think Tiger made any claims on being "bulletproof," he's emphasized he's only human from the get-go.

When Tiger Woods walks to the No. 1 tee, the masses part to allow him to pass. When he faces a difficult putt, the gallery hushes.

That's because he's a professional golfer. They do the same for the Monday qualifiers who shoot 78-75-CUT.

When he allows a worshipful world access to his thoughts, everyone crowds in to hear. When he says go away, everyone does.

When he wants an Ottoman, everyone falls to their hands and feet and offers up their backs, People admire Tiger, but nobody thinks he's Gandhi. Accept his dad, of course.

Easy to see how a famous and accomplished man could grow accustomed to such control, even be deluded by it. He's always been able to do things his way. Why not now?

Here again, wishing Tiger was surprised at the world's reaction to last week's events and at his own fallibility, Lopresti simply pretends he is.

Just say no, and close the door. They'll leave respectfully, and go back to counting birdies and eagles. They always have. Those are the rules. Golf, after all, is a game of order.

I see I'm just going to need to copy and paste my last sentence about eight more times to finish this article.

But those television satellite trucks parked in an electronic vigil outside his house — that's not order. The rules, as suddenly as an SUV can hit a fire hydrant, have changed for Tiger Woods.

While we are projecting, I submit that a satisfied grin crossed Lopresti's face when he came up with "electronic vigil."

The world is such a communicative place, with so many ways available to say anything. But with that comes a modern reality. Those who say nothing can look conspicuous. Even, under certain conditions, suspicious.

I bet Lopresti was really mad when his editor took out, "His silence, so often arresting, is now convicting."

The longer this goes without explanation, the more strangers search his life, the more people wonder what is being hidden. Fair? Not the issue. That is the way it is.

I know how furious I get when people wonder about personal details of my life. You can read all about it in my upcoming book, The Audacity of Curiosity.

There is less sympathy the day they seek to trade their talent for endorsement riches. Once they try to sell us something, once they accept the role of representing something, they're asking us to trust them. They're seeking to be, for want of a better term, role models.

In a column full of prize peaches, this one is my favorite. Where to begin?

I didn't realize that commercials were such an exercise in trust, nor that the default was to trust advertisements, which exist solely to convince you to give companies money in exchange for their product.

Carrot Top, you are scandal-free to my knowledge. If there was a scandal, I have no reason to believe you would not be completely forthright in discussing it . I shall therefore use 1-800-CALL-ATT with impunity for my collect calling needs, armed with the comfort of your endorsement like a baby being cradled in your mighty arms.

Tiger doesn't give a shit if you buy a Buick or a bottle of Gatorade. These companies will live or die regardless of his commercials, and he isn't paid on commission. I hope Lopresti gets the opportunity to tell Tiger to his face, "If you don't tell me all, I will take the products you endorse less seriously!" I imagine Tiger could use a good laugh right now.

But it is good to know that Tiger wants us to buy Gillette razors because he's "seeking to be a role model."

Tiger Woods, marketing juggernaut and golf ambassador, must stand up soon and have a chat with the public that so eagerly gave him the keys to the globe. Maybe he is protecting his wife, himself, his family. Can't be easy, going from idol to tabloid fodder in a week. But stonewalling never fixed a problem like this.

He doesn't have to tell us everything. But he must tell us something. He really must.

And if he doesn't, then the reporters will camp out on his doorstep until Zac Efron is seen holding hands with Miley Cyrus, and Johnny Miller will still occasionally be bringing it up even as he is playing the 2026 Senior British Open. Is that what you want, Tiger?

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:08 AM | Comments (1)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

NY Jets @ Buffalo (+3)

With 293 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns in the Bills' last two games, Terrell Owens is finally posting the numbers the Bills expected when they signed him in the offseason. Owens will face a stiff challenge when talented young cornerback Darrelle Revis, who held Steve Smith to 2 catches for 2 yards, lines up against Owens in Toronto on Thursday.

"Let's put Revis' game against Smith in perspective," says Owens. "Sure, he shut down Smith, and no, he had no safety help. But he had something even better — Jake Delhomme, who's not a safety, nor a shutdown cornerback, but he is without a doubt a shutdown quarterback."

"As for my recent surge, interest in T.O. had waned recently, so I decided it was time to step up. I've got to impress potential suitors for next year, teams in need of an aging superstar whose diminishing skills are inversely proportionate to his expanding ego. And I need to remain relevant in the television realm, because, let's face it, a 'reality check' may soon be my only source of income."

The Jets are 5-6 and will likely need to win their remaining five games to ensure a playoff berth. Mark Sanchez is nursing a sore knee, but is expected to be ready on Thursday.

"I hear former Bills great Jim Kelly thinks the Bills should pursue Tim Tebow in the draft," says Sanchez. "I agree. The Bills do need a tight end. Tebow as an NFL quarterback may be 'Gator bait' to the Bills, but to most, it's a 'croc of shit.' But it seems Buffalo has given up on Trent Edwards as their quarterback of the future. And they had such high hopes for him. In this league, it's easy to go from the perceived savior of a franchise to just an ordinary, at best, quarterback. Of all people, I should know."

It's a must-win game for the Jets, and there's only one way Rex Ryan can possibly motivate his team for such a game, and that's to mace himself, and follow up with a moving, and sometimes tear-inducing, pre-game speech.

Sanchez re-injures his knee breaking up a double play in the second, and Owens gets the better of Revis, at least on one of his 2 catches, a 14-yard touchdown. The Bills, behind a rowdy, pro-Maple Leafs crowd, win, 20-17.

St. Louis @ Chicago (-9)

Jay Cutler continues to struggle in what has become a season that has fallen well short of the high expectations that followed Cutler's arrival in Chicago. Cutler threw 2 interceptions in the Bears' 36-10 loss in Minnesota, giving him 20, the most in the NFL.

"Cutler may be asking 'Where's the love?'" says Lovie Smith. "But soon, I'm afraid people will be asking 'Where's the Lovie?' Jay is a true 'Monstrosity of the Midway,' and we both have to deal with the repercussions of his terrible play. He's the 'Fall Out Boy,' while I'm simply the 'Fall Guy.' There's little to no chance Cutler will be forced to 'Jay-walk.' So it seems my contract, like a Cutler pass, won't see completion."

The Rams are a dismal 1-10, but many of the pieces are in place for a brighter future. Running back Steven Jackson is one of the best in the league, and the Rams have a young, improving defense led by rookie linebacker James Laurinaitis.

"Obviously," says Laurinaitis, "Steve Spagnuolo didn't leave a bit of his defensive knowledge in New York. He brought in all here. But it will take time to learn it sufficiently. Rome wasn't built in a day, and Hawk and Animal didn't become masters of pro wrestling's Chicago Street Fight overnight. This is my own 'throwback' game, and in honor of the Road Warriors, I'll be wearing my spiked shoulder pads, and an abundance of make-up. Hopefully, my appearance won't be confused as a tribute to Adam Lambert."

Like their ursine kin in the wild, the Bears seem to be preparing for a long hibernation spent in their dens, watching the playoffs after fattening themselves on losses. On Sunday, however, Chicago turns things around, with solid efforts on both sides of the ball. Cutler makes like a professional bowler and breaks 200, throwing for 3 scores, and the Chicago defense limits Steven Jackson to 71 yards on the ground.

Bears win, 27-14.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-6½)

After a 4-interception day that essentially cost the Panthers any chance of a win against the Jets, Jake Delhomme's days as the Carolina starter may be numbered. And that number is likely "0." John Fox's inexplicable resistance to change has been frustrating, and seems reluctant to make what is obviously a needed change.

"Coach Fox is obviously a fan of the movie Groundhog Day," says Steve Smith. "Heck, we knew it would be a long year when Jake showed up at summer camp and saw his shadow. That meant we had six more months of Jake. But maybe Coach Fox will have the decision made for him. Jake broke his finger against the Jets, probably not in the process of throwing an interception, but counting them. You know, in the Cajun dialect, 'interception' translates loosely to faux 'pass.'"

The Bucs lost a heartbreaker in Atlanta, falling 20-17 on the game's final play when Chris Redmon found Roddy White for a touchdown. Tampa is 1-10, but the play of rookie quarterback Josh Freeman seems to signal a turnaround for the franchise.

"It's such a relief to know your quarterback situation is stable," says Raheem Morris. "I know Fox has struggled with the decision. Maybe Delhomme is better suited in a backup role anyway. He could be the perfect quarterback to get the call in an emergency. Right now, he is an emergency."

The Panthers, with Matt Moore at quarterback, attack the Bucs on the ground, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combine for 205 yards and 3 scores. Carolina wins, 23-16.

Houston @ Jacksonville (-1)

Despite racing to a 17-0 lead last week against the Colts, the Texans again failed to close the deal, losing 35-27 as Indy scored 21 fourth-quarter points. Houston is now 1-15 against Indy.

"Ironically," says Matt Schaub, "we always get 'lost' when it's time to 'find a way' to beat the Colts. If Mark Sanchez were on our sideline looking for a hot dog condiment, he would find an endless supply of hot sauce, because once again, we 'Texas Peter-ed' out. Apparently, when the term 'late heroics' is mentioned here in Texans, everyone either says 'Remember the Alamo' or 'Forget the Texans.'"

At 6-5, the Jaguars share the same record with the Ravens and Steelers. But by virtue of their 5-2 conference record, Jacksonville has a slight edge in the race for a wild card berth.

"A 'slight' edge?" says Jack Del Rio. "I think that's what they call Edgerrin James these days. Anyway, we've got a chance to hand the Texans their fourth straight division loss, and improve our playoff standing as well. As you know, Maurice Jones-Drew has cracked 1,000 yards rushing for the first time in his career. But we're not going to run him 'Jag-ged' without taking the necessary precautions. You'd be surprised how well deep-tissue massage and oily rub-downs sooth a coach worried about overworking his best player. I feel great. The last thing I want to do is break my moneymaker."

Matt Schaub throws for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Texans hold on to a late lead in a 27-21 win. Gary Kubiak feels a cooling sensation on his behind, and it's not the Preparation H.

Denver @ Kansas City (+4)

Denver head coach Josh McDaniels and Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, who partnered for Cassel's 4,000-yard year in New England, will face off as foes when the 7-4 Broncos face the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Broncos are chasing the 8-3 Chargers, who pummeled Kansas City 43-14 last week.

"I'm sure my pre-game interaction with Matt will be much more pleasant that my exchange with Shaun Phillips," says McDaniels. "Of course I won't tell Matt I 'own him;' I'll just tell him I 'made' him. I really don't understand why everyone got so worked up over my comment to Phillips. Heck, I basically cussed out my offense on national television, and no one blinked an eye, except for the network censors, who were left scrambling, much like Cassel is prone to do. It's that 'sharp' language that has earned me the nickname 'Mc-The-Knife,' or 'Josh Spice.' Now, many people may have written us off after our four-game losing streak, but we've got the Chargers right where we want them. We're no longer the hunted; we're the hunters. Which is just a nice way of saying 'we blew a huge division lead.'"

Denver wins, 27-13.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-7)

The Titans out-gained the Cardinals by 240 yards last week, but still needed the last-second heroics of Vince Young to capture a 20-17 win, Tennessee's fifth victory in a row. Young's 10-yard strike to Kenny Britt as time expired gave Tennessee the win and kept the Titans playoff hopes intact.

"Remarkably, I've gone from 'zero' to 'hero,'" says Young. "But enough about my Wonderlic score. That's just one of the many things I can count on one hand. There's 'five' wins in a row, Bud Adams 'two' middle fingers, and a high 'five' from an official. Of course, it takes two hands to count our losses, a number which always takes a little luster off of a five-game winning streak."

The Colts are 11-0 and have clinched the AFC South, and a win against the Titans would give Indy its 22nd regular season win in a row, breaking the Patriots record of 21. The Colts rallied last week to beat the Texans 35-27, Indy's fifth consecutive come from behind win.

"What the Titans have done is really impressive," says Peyton Manning. "Chris Johnson is practically unstoppable, and the smartening up of Vince Young is intersecting nicely with the dumbing down of the offense. Not only is a Peyton Manning jersey responsible for the Colts' success, it's also responsible for the Titans.' I'm clearly the league's most valuable player. But I look forward to this matchup, particularly to get a personal gauge on Young's progress. That time on the bench really seems to have made a difference. Vince has been a sponge, soaking up as much information as possible. And, like a sponge, there are still a lot of holes in his game, which our defense is sure to exploit."

Titans owner Adams has his fingers crossed, not for good luck that Tennessee's streak continues, but because it's a Roger Goodell-mandated stipulation of punishment for Adams finger-flying incident against the Bills. Luck or no luck, though, the Colts have the real "Oilers," a raucous Lucas Oil Stadium crowd, not to mention Manning, to pull them through.

Manning throws for 286 yards and 3 scores, and out-duels Johnson, who rushes for 157 yards and a touchdown.

Indianapolis wins, 31-27.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta (+6)

Don't expect any being in the Michael Vick welcoming committee to be standing on four legs. Vick makes his return to Atlanta as a Philadelphia Eagle when the 7-4 Eagles face the 6-5 Falcons in a game both teams need to stay firmly in the playoff hunt.

"Of course, dogs will be on everyone's minds because of Michael's situation," says Donovan McNabb. "But in Atlanta, the Southeast's strip club Mecca, dogs always take a back seat to 'puppies.' I'm sure Mike and I will buddy up and hit the hot night spots while introducing ourselves as 'Ron Mexico' and 'Don McMexico.'"

Injuries continue to mount for the Falcons. Michael Turner aggravated his right ankle injury, and Matt Ryan incurred a turf toe injury, and has already been ruled out of Sunday's game, and may miss more time depending on the results of further examinations.

"And this little piggy went to see a specialist," says Ryan. "Turf toe has to be the most aggravating injury in football. It's probably just from overuse, because I've been stubbing my toe all year."

Vick is welcomed back to the Georgia Dome to the sounds of "The Woof is on Fire" from the public address system. Vick gets the last laugh, though, and marks his old territory with a seven-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter.

Eagles win, 23-20.

New Orleans @ Washington (+9½)

The Saints continue to roll, and are 11-0 after easily handling the Patriots 38-17 on Monday night. Next up are the Redskins, who are 3-8, but have taken the Cowboys and Eagles to the limit in the last two weeks before falling late. The Saints can clinch the NFC South with a win.

"Although the Redskins are struggling," says Drew Brees, "I expect them to defend their side of the playing field better than New England did. 'Patriot' is the operative word in 'Patriot defense,' because they're all about 'freedom.' Our receivers basically ran untouched, before and after catching the ball. I'm not even sure a warning from Paul Revere would have done the Pats much good. John Paul Jones isn't the only Patriot to have famously uttered the words 'I have not yet begun to fight.' We were in no way 'looking past' New England, but their defensive backs are the easiest in the league to 'look off.' The whites in their eyes signaled 'surrender.'"

If the 'Skins need motivation, handing the Saints their first loss should be plenty.

"This team feels just like I did," says Jim Zorn, "after being stripped of play-calling duties — 'upset'-minded. Sure, we'd love to knock off the Saints. Is it likely? Probably not. But we've bucked odds all year. Heck, what were the chances of finding an offensive coordinator in a bingo parlor? Anyway, Chris Cooley has really blown the roof off of the play-calling situation here. It's true, Sherman Lewis doesn't even talk to Jason Campbell while creating a game plan or during a game. What's even more amazing is the process Lewis uses to choose a play. Sherm just rotates the bingo cage until a play comes out. Then he sends it to the field via a vacuum tube. Daniel Snyder won't blind anyone with his allegiance, and we darn sure won't blind anyone with our science."

New Orleans wins, 27-16.

Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-13½)

Although it's too soon to panic, "worry" is not too harsh of a word to describe the Steelers' predicament. After a tough 20-17 overtime loss to the Ravens, Pittsburgh is 6-5 and struggling to hang on for what promises to be a wildcard race decided by a number of tiebreakers. An unhappy Mike Tomlin promised the Steelers "would not go gently" and would "unleash hell" in the month of December.

"We're by no means down for the count," says Hines Ward, "and unlike Ben Roethlisberger, we plan to answer the bell. I don't mean to question Roethlisberger's commitment, but maybe a new nickname is in order, such as 'Gentle Ben' or 'Ben Her.' Ask anyone. I've played with a concussion on numerous occasions, and I think my show of toughness is good for my teammates to see. Heck, you know me. I'm always being accused of 'leading with my head.'"

"Hines is entitled to his opinion," says Roethsliberger. "But what does he think? I didn't have a concussion? Would that be called the 'Immaculate Concussion?' Hines is a tough guy, and we're all very proud. Sure he's played with a concussion. Now I realize I've played with a 'jackass.'"

The Raiders will be playing the underdog, but with 10 days to prepare, Oakland should be well-rested for a Steelers team drained from both a tough game and dissent from within.

"In-fighting amongst the Steelers is music to my ears," says Tom Cable. "And the song that comes most to mind is Foreigner's 'Head Games,' not to mention 'Double Vision,' and 'Feels Like the First Time,' an ode to Dennis Dixon. In addition, Troy Polamalu won't be playing. Troy's exactly what the Steelers need to emerge from their funk. Not necessarily his defensive skills, but his even-tempered, soft-spoken mannerisms are perfect for creating unity. Besides, if you ask him about the Roethlisberger situation, he'll just comment on his hair, or accuse you of doing so. But Troy's gone Hollywood; he's in more commercials than games."

Here's a Foreigner song the Steelers should really take a listen to — "Urgent." With a heavy heart and a light head, Roethlisberger plays, and plays well, finding Ward for 2 scores, and knocking Ward to the ground with a celebratory head butt after the first score.

Pittsburgh wins, 24-6.

Detroit @ Cincinnati (-13)

The Bengals' 16-7 win over Cleveland was certainly a much-needed win, but it surely won't be sending shivers down the spines on any future opponents, although it may raise the hackles of the 2-9 Lions. Detroit lost a 34-12 Thanksgiving contest to the Packers, a team the Bengals beat 31-24 in Green Bay in Week 2.

"Only in the NFL can Lions and Tigers meet in the 'Jungle,'" says Chad Ochocinco. "I'm not sure we have a 'king' of the jungle, but we do have a 'Chief,' former Kansas City running back Larry Johnson. L.J. is a great addition to this team. He busted out for 100 yards last week, and like a true team player, he knows how to pick up the blitz. Unfortunately, he also knows how to pickup the Schlitz, and toss it in your face. But since when do character issues matter in Cincinnati?"

"As for people who question our performance, I honestly can't tell you which Cincy team will show up, whether it be the team that beat the Steelers 23-20, or the team that beat the Steelers 18-12, or the team that beat the Ravens 17-14, or the team that beat the Ravens 17-7. Hopefully, the team that lost to the Raiders 20-17 won't be seen again this season."

Lions rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford has endured his share of hardships this year, from injuries to interceptions.

"I've suffered numerous bumps and bruises," says Stafford, "as well as a dislocated kneecap. But the shoulder has been a real problem area. I've felt the pain of a separated shoulder, and the indignity of Daunte Culpepper's cold shoulder. But the wealth of playing time has lead to improvement — in my pain threshold."

The Bengals certainly look playoff-worthy, but a deep trip into the playoffs seems unlikely for a team whose best offensive weapon is its kicker, Shayne Graham. Are the Bengals the team most likely to lose at home after a first-round bye. Maybe, but that won't matter Sunday, because there's no such thing as a "playoff atmosphere" when the Lions are in town.

Cincinnati wins, 30-14.

San Diego @ Cleveland (+13)

The Chargers could very well be the hottest non-undefeated team in the league after winning their sixth consecutive game, a 43-14 trouncing of the Chiefs. At 8-3, San Diego will likely battle the Bengals, Patriots, and Broncos down the stretch for the No. 2 playoff seed and a first-round bye.

"We try to be careful of what we throw around," says Philip Rivers, "and that includes superlatives. Too many pats on the back, and the next thing you know, you're giving the Heimlich maneuver to a washed-up reality star, only to be accused of choking her. But that's about the only thing Shawne Merriman has got his hands on this year."

"But playing in Cleveland is never easy. And I'm just talking about the home team. But it looks like Eric Mangini's reign of terrible will terminate at season's end. If the Cleveland front office is smart, they'll look somewhere besides the Bill Belichick coaching tree for a new coach, or from what is going to be a deep pool of just-fired head coaches."

At 1-10, the Browns have little to play for, save for pride, the role of spoiler, and getting Brady Quinn his incentive money.

"Don't forget," says Quinn, "we're also in a race for the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft. You think John Elway didn't want to go to Baltimore? Wait until the Browns announce who they plan on choosing. If it's an underclassman, he'll be going back to school. If it's a senior, he'll be going to graduate school."

Chargers win, 30-13.

Dallas @ NY Giants (-1)

After offering little resistance in Thanksgiving night's 26-6 loss to the Broncos, the Giants have lost five of their last six, and trail the visiting Cowboys by two games in the tight NFC East race. In addition, Eli Manning has been diagnosed with another foot problem, a stress reaction in his right foot, a condition that could end his season if it worsens.

"Those injuries haven't affected my play at all," says Manning. "After all, I don't even use my legs to throw, and I surely won't be using them to walk to the Pro Bowl. But having subpar feet is the story of my life. All my life, big brother Peyton has been known more for his feats than me."

The Cowboys will be out to avenge a 33-31 Week 2 loss in Dallas. But the Giants now are just a shell of the team the Cowboys saw then.

"I think this New York team is still searching for its identity," says Tony Romo. "Well, I know exactly where it is. It's in the nine digits at Riker's Island corresponding to Plaxico Burress' prisoner number. But there are a number of Giants in need of 'correctional' facilities, notably their defensive and offensive lines."

"But we've been playing some of our best ball lately. However, I'm reluctant to say 'you ain't seen nothing yet.' It's way too early for such confident talk. Usually, we show 'nothing' in our first playoff game."

Dallas wins, 30-27.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-1)

A shakeup could be brewing in the Great Northwest. Reports out of Seattle indicate that general manger Tim Ruskell won't be back next year, and that former coach Mike Holmgren will replace him. Rumor has in that Holmgren wants Jon Gruden to coach the Seahawks, which would leave Jim Mora out in the cold.

"Please tell me there's a buyout involved," says Mora. "Not that I'm greedy. That would just be a great situation to channel my father's famous words and say 'Payoffs!? Payoffs!? You're asking me about payoffs!? Payoffs!?' But please tell me those Coors Light guys won't be showing up at my press conference. You think the Madden video game cover jinx is bad? Anytime those Coors Light jesters appear, the coach always get fired."

The 5-6 49ers trail the Cardinals in the NFC West by two games, a deficit that could shrink should San Fran win and Arizona falls to the Vikings.

"It sounds to me like Mora's getting 'Punk'd,'" says Mike Singletary. "And that's exactly what I thought back in 1985 when me and the Bears were recording 'The Super Bowl Shuffle.' Ashton Kutcher wasn't around then, but I could have sworn Allen Funt had something to do with that stunt. Jim McMahon and Gary Fencik rapping then is comparable to getting Kurt Warner to bust a rhyme today. From what I hear, Kurt's skilled in 'verse;' too bad it's Bible verse. Oh yeah, go Vikings!"

San Francisco wins, 23-20.

New England @ Miami (+5)

In Monday night's 38-17 loss in New Orleans, Tom Brady looked confused, Bill Belichick looked disheveled, and the Patriots looked merely ordinary.

New England is now 1-4 on the road, with a visit to Miami's Landshark Stadium upcoming.

"And they had to leave the country to get that one," says Joey Porter. "Now, they have to come to our house, which is likely the only time they'll make an appearance in Miami this season. I imagine the Patriots will come here looking for a convincing victory in order to 'save face.' Well, that's probably the only body part they'll be looking for, because last Monday, they got their asses 'handed' to them by the Saints."

The Patriots have yet to lose two straight games this year, and a win will maintain a comfortable division lead in the East.

"I'm not going to get into a war of words with Porter," says Tom Brady. "Pillow talk, not trash talk, is my game. That's why I can't 'jive' '55.' Besides, does Porter ever back up what he says? On occasion, yes. But usually, it's just empty trash talk. I whisper 'sweet nothings'; Porter yells 'not so sweet nothings.'"

"I fully expect Belichick to give us a fail-proof game plan. Sean Payton really had us figured out, almost like he knew what we were doing before we did it. And that just eats Belichick up. Payton should be proud. It's not often you can out-scheme the schemer. That's why Belichick was so gracious in defeat. Compared to his usual post-game congratulations, he was downright making out with those guys. It's like what I tell Bill when he's got a juicy bootlegged practice video to watch — 'get a room.'"

Brady and Randy Moss hook up for 2 scores, and New England wins, 30-20.

Minnesota @ Arizona (+4)

It's a duel in the desert as Brett Favre and Kurt Warner, the NFL's two oldest quarterbacks, battle at University of Phoenix Stadium. Favre will break the NFL's consecutive games started streak when he takes the field, while Warner will likely play with some lingering effects of a concussion suffered two weeks ago.

"Hey, the great thing about concussions," says Favre, "is that you don't remember them. I've had my share of them, and, over the course of 282 games, there's quite a bit you forget. People tell me I spent a year with the New York Jets. I guess concussions wreak more havoc on your selective memory, as well."

If Warner is unable to play, the quarterbacking duties will fall into the semi-capable hands of Matt Leinart, who prefers his shots not to the head, but to the stomach, in the form of jello.

"Hey, I've got something that no one else on this entire team has," says Leinart, "and that's confidence in myself. As for Kurt, he's got clearance from the doctors. We're just waiting on his wife, Brenda, to do the same. I can't blame her. You don't want to lose your meal ticket, at least not until he cashes in in 2010."

They'll call it a game-time decision, but Warner will start, and the Cards receiving corps will carry them to the win, as a fired-up defense contains Adrian Peterson and Favre.

Arizona wins, 34-30.

Baltimore @ Green Bay (-3)

Historic Lambeau Field is the site of Monday Night Football's broadcast, featuring the 7-4 Packers hosting the 6-5 Ravens in a contest replete with playoff implications. MNF's resident "Love Guru," Jon Gruden, will undoubtedly be singing the praises of players and coaches alike in his opening statement.

"Gruden loves more people than Jesus Christ," says Aaron Rodgers. "And some people believe he can even turn water to wine. That's debatable, but I know when he was in Tampa, he turned 'whine' to water when he made Keyshawn Johnson cry."

"As for the Ravens, they've played probably the toughest schedule in the NFL. As their results would indicate, they just don't lose to bad teams. I'm not sure whether that bodes well for us or not. We've beaten only one team with a winning record, and we've lost to only one team with a losing record. So, if we win, our strength of schedule goes up. If we lose, the Ravens' strength of schedule goes down."

A loss at this point would be more damaging to the Ravens' playoff hopes, and that sense of urgency will be the catalyst for a Baltimore win.

Ravens win, 27-26.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:00 AM | Comments (3)

December 2, 2009

An Open Letter to Heisman Voters

To Every Heisman Voter:

Let me first say that I have long dreamed of having one of the ballots that you get to fill out shortly. Maybe you have filled yours out already. If so, please disregard.

Having said that, I feel that, in one of the strangest and most difficult years ever to choose the winner of the most coveted trophy in college football, the sanctity of the Heisman itself is at stake.

Recently, a disturbing trend has been appearing lately. I see it in the words of sportswriters. I hear it on radio and television. There are many that think that the Heisman Trophy, symbolic of the best player in college football for the season, should simply go to the best player on the best team. And frankly, that has me disturbed.

The Heisman wasn't meant to just crown the top-ranked team's top player. Otherwise, how on Earth could George Rogers win the Heisman at South Carolina in 1980? The Gamecocks were 8-3 on the season. How could Paul Hornung win it at Notre Dame in 1956? The Irish were a disastrous 2-8 that year.

Let's take a look at the top two teams: Florida and Alabama. Alabama has a Heisman candidate in Mark Ingram; Florida in Tim Tebow.

Let's start with Ingram. First, statistically, Ingram is not the top rusher in the SEC. That award goes to Anthony Dixon of Mississippi State. Ingram's a good back, but second, ask yourself this: is Mark Ingram even the best player on the Alabama team? Myself, I think Rolando McClain is the force behind the Tide. Finally, if Ingram wasn't on Alabama's team, would the Tide still be as good? I'd have to say so. In that case, you've got to leave Ingram off your ballot.

Tebow's stats aren't dazzling. Frankly, had Arkansas defeated LSU last weekend, Ryan Mallett would've been the slight favorite as the first-team all SEC quarterback. Mallett's numbers are frankly better. Tebow is being considered for "leadership roles." Admirable, yes, but let's face it, the Florida offense wasn't stellar this year. Florida also rose to the top on defense, so maybe the attention should lean a little more towards Brandon Spikes and a little less at Tebow.

(Note: If you're a voter from Florida, don't send me your "how dare you say anything slightly negative towards the wonder child" comments. I got those last year, and they don't work.)

Would Florida be the same without Tebow? No, but they also weren't the same this year without Percy Harvin. Harvin made the offense unstoppable. This year, the Gator D took control, so no way should Tebow find his way on your top spot.

Let's even look at Colt McCoy of Texas. I like McCoy. He's without question the leader of the Texas squad. Against Texas A&M, he pretty much won the game by himself. My concern though is this: has McCoy really played against anyone? The Big 12 was obviously extremely weak this year, so McCoy's stats weren't really against some solid competition, but rather against a slew of mediocre teams. That gives a tough answer when asked if Texas would still be as good this year without McCoy, because with the schedule they played and the talent all around that team, the answer's no, but the drop off wouldn't be as big as you would think. McCoy deserves to be on your ballot, but I'd put him in the number two slot.

Number one belongs to Toby Gerhart of Stanford.

Forget that Stanford is 8-4. Forget that the Pac-10 plays so late that so many of us haven't seen much of anything out on the West Coast. Gerhart has Heisman written all over him. Without question, he's the team's most valuable player. Without question, he's the top running back in a conference that was loaded with good running backs. With his outstanding performance against Notre Dame, coupled with Ingram's collapse at Auburn, the Doak Walker Award should already be engraved with his name on it. And when asked if Stanford would be as good without him, the answer comes without hesitation: not a chance. Gerhart is the catalyst of Jim Harbaugh's triumphant revival of Cardinal football, which is why Harbaugh pulled Gerhart from a throng of Stanford students after the Notre Dame win to plead his case.

Tebow and Ingram this year were good players on great teams. McCoy was a great player on what probably is a great team, but unproven, and I couldn't vote on "probably." Gerhart took a so-so Stanford team and made them into a solid one. That speaks of the qualities that were the base of the Heisman Trophy, and in a time where the standards of the trophy are truly at question, I humbly ask that you follow the guidelines of the past.

Thank you for your time. And oh, while you're at it, can you find a way to make the NCAA create a playoff?

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:51 AM | Comments (6)

Sports Central 2009 Pro Bowl Picks

Pro Bowl voting has been open for over a month, but now every team has played most of its schedule, so it's finally reasonable to vote for each conference's representatives. Here's a look at my ballot, with AFC players listed first. I didn't vote for anyone who has been placed on injured reserve.

Briefly, before we begin, why does the NFL switch the order of this ballot every single season? Just pick something and stick with it. Preferably the order that pretty much the entire rest of the world agrees on. Also: listing players alphabetically by first name? Really?

Quarterback

Peyton Manning (IND), Tom Brady (NE), Philip Rivers (SD); Drew Brees (NO), Aaron Rodgers (GB), Tony Romo (DAL)

Yeah, I left off Minnesota's QB, for three main reasons. (1) No defense plays the Vikings trying to shut down the passing game; they're all concentrating on Adrian Peterson. (2) Minnesota has also played an incredibly soft schedule that inflates his stats. (3) Last season, I said that fans "wouldn't be crazy" to vote for him, and he collapsed down the stretch, making me look like a jackass. For the remainder of the season, he averaged barely 200 yards per game and threw 2 TDs with 9 interceptions, for a passer rating of 55.2. You won't fool me twice, old man. In the AFC, Brady and Rivers were a close call over Matt Schaub (HOU).

Running Back

Chris Johnson (TEN), Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC), Ray Rice (BAL); Adrian Peterson (MIN), Steven Jackson (STL), DeAngelo Williams (CAR)

There are lots of RBs having good seasons, and in such a tight year, Cedric Benson (CIN) missed out because of his recent injury, and because he's a little one-dimensional, not much of a receiver. Ricky Williams (MIA) was a stronger candidate, but Rice has more rushing yards and many more receiving yards. Michael Turner (ATL) and Frank Gore (SF) might have snuck onto my ballot if they'd been healthy all season. Even with some good players left off, I am completely satisfied with the players I did vote for.

Wide Receiver

Reggie Wayne (IND), Andre Johnson (HOU), Randy Moss (NE), Wes Welker (NE); Larry Fitzgerald (ARI), Sidney Rice (MIN), Donald Driver (GB), DeSean Jackson (PHI)

The AFC choices are non-negotiable: those four receivers are game-changers. The other side of the ballot was tighter. Up-and-comers Steve Smith (NYG) and Miles Austin (DAL) were particularly tough to leave off. The last couple of seasons, we've all expected Driver to fade quietly into the twilight of his career, but he's on pace to challenge most of his career-highs, and he's been remarkably consistent from week to week. I'm wary of Rice for some of the same reasons as his quarterback, but Rice just keeps getting better every week. Jackson has over 100 rushing yards to complement his receiving accomplishments. This choice assumes his recent concussion won't force him to miss more than one game.

Tight End

Dallas Clark (IND), Antonio Gates (SD); Vernon Davis (SF), Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

After several seasons of voting for pretty much the same people every year, it seemed like we were finally due for a changing of the guard. Young players like Brent Celek (PHI), Zach Miller (OAK), and Davis are all on the rise. Chris Cooley (WAS) is hurt, and Jason Witten (DAL) is having the worst season of his career. Gonzalez left Kansas City and Gates got off to a slow start. In the end, though, only Davis crashed the party, and at this point in the season, I think these are clearly the four best tight ends in the NFL. Celek has fewer catches and yards than Gonzalez, even though Gonzalez draws double-teams. Heath Miller's (PIT) blocking is overrated, and he simply isn't the difference-maker that Clark and Gates are.

The next portion of the ballot concerns blockers. I'm a competent judge of line play, but having watched a limited number of games, I'm reduced to some guesswork at these positions. Other guys get highlights and statistics to help you choose, but not the offensive linemen. I'll be more confident in the offensive line selections for my all-pro team at the end of the season, when I've had more chances to see these guys. That disclaimer aside, here are my picks:

Center

Nick Mangold (NYJ), Jeff Saturday (IND); Jamaal Jackson (PHI), Jonathan Goodwin (NO)

Close calls all around. Saturday missed last season with an injury and doesn't look the same as he did from 2005-07, but he still edged Matt Birk (BAL), Dan Koppen (NE), and Brad Meester (JAC). Shaun O'Hara (NYG), whom I chose for three years in a row, looks out of synch this season. Andre Gurode (DAL) still gets the job done, but he's not dominating defenders this year. Jackson is Philadelphia's best offensive lineman, and Goodwin's solid play in the middle is a big part of why the Saints' guards look so good. Zillion-year-old Olin Kreutz (CHI) still makes plays for Chicago's rancid o-line.

Offensive Tackle

Duane Brown (HOU), Max Starks (PIT), Andrew Whitworth (CIN); Levi Brown (ARI), Phil Loadholt (MIN), Jon Stinchcomb (NO)

This is a low point in recent history for offensive tackles, and there's no one who really thrills me. Willie Colon (PIT) gets more publicity than Starks, and both are playing well, but I think Starks is a little better. Whitworth has held up well against some of the AFC's best pass rushers. Ryan Clady (DEN) is not playing as well as he did last season, but he's a talented kid who creates plays and usually does a good job. Omar Gaither (BAL) is a sleeper, worth keeping an eye on. I hate everyone in the NFC, where for some reason all the best linemen play the interior. Levi Brown didn't play well against the Colts, but no one on that line really did. He's been mostly solid. Stinchcomb is the fourth-best lineman on his own team, but it's a pretty good team. Michael Roos (TEN) and Jason Peters (PHI) got off to slow starts, but have played well recently.

Offensive Guard

Logan Mankins (NE), Jake Scott (TEN), Ryan Lilja (IND); Steve Hutchinson (MIN), Carl Nicks (NO), Leonard Davis (DAL)

Old stand-bys in the AFC, all guys I've voted for in the past, though there are some young guys I'll have my eye on in the last few weeks. The NFC is stacked at this position, and I don't have space to explain all my preferences, but the other guys I particularly like are Justin Blalock (ATL), Harvey Dahl (ATL), Jahri Evans (NO), and Chris Snee (NYG). I like Blalock a little better than Dahl, though everyone else seems to feel the opposite. Leonard Davis isn't much of a pass-blocker, but the enormous holes he creates in the run game more than compensate.

Fullback

Jeremi Johnson (CIN); Madison Hedgecock (NYG)

I don't think there's a team in the league on which this is still an important position. Everyone goes three-wide or two tight ends most of the time now. Fullbacks get in the game so seldom that there aren't many I've gotten a good look at. I have a better idea who I don't like than who I do. Ahmard Hall (TEN) and Lousaka Polite (MIA) are overrated. I like Le'Ron McClain (BAL) better as a Jerome Bettis-type ball-carrier than a blocking back. Heath Evans (NO) would have been an easy choice before he got hurt, but now he's on IR and isn't even listed on the ballot.

Strong Safety

Brandon Meriweather (NE); Adrian Wilson (ARI)

Troy Polamalu (PIT) is the best when he's healthy. He's not. Wilson is a well-rounded, consistent producer. He's particularly effective in pass defense (3 interceptions), but he's also a big hitter and an effective pass rusher. Roman Harper (NO) is having a good year for the Saints, though he's mostly a run-stuffer. Quintin Mikell (PHI) isn't flashy, but he gets to the ball. Brian Dawkins (DEN) has had more impact in the locker room than on the field, and isn't a good choice. He's getting beaten a lot this year.

Cornerback

Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Johnathan Joseph (CIN), Champ Bailey (DEN); Charles Woodson (GB), Asante Samuel (PHI), Sheldon Brown (PHI)

Revis and Woodson are musts. If they're not on your ballot, you shouldn't be filling one out. Other than Revis, all these guys are part of successful tandems. Joseph and his teammate Leon Hall (CIN) are a big part of Cincinnati's success this year. Bailey's partner Andre' Goodman (DEN) is having a fine season. Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK) is overrated. He doesn't get thrown at a lot, but when teams test him, they always seem to be successful. Charles Tillman (CHI) isn't the greatest coverage guy in the league, but he has forced 6 fumbles this season, and that's valuable. Antoine Winfield (MIN) is a top-five corner when healthy, but he's only played in 6 games this season.

Defensive End

Dwight Freeney (IND), Robert Mathis (IND), Brett Keisel (PIT); Jared Allen (MIN), Will Smith (NO), Andre Carter (WAS)

This is the best season I've ever seen Freeney have. Mathis is an almost equal threat from the other side. Keisel is the best player on Pittsburgh's line. Aaron Schobel (BUF) doesn't get much publicity — or help from his teammates — in Buffalo, but he keeps making plays. Trent Cole (PHI) is having another good season, but I think he's fourth in the NFC right now. Cullen Jenkins (GB), who plays a hybrid DE-DT in Green Bay's revamped defense, is probably fifth.

Defensive Tackle

Vince Wilfork (NE), Domata Peko (CIN), Haloti Ngata (BAL); Darnell Dockett (ARI), Jay Ratliff (DAL), Kevin Williams (MIN)

Kris Jenkins (NYJ) was better than anyone through six weeks, but he hasn't played since and is on injured reserve. It's hard to get away from nose tackles in the AFC, but Peko is probably the best of the 4-3 men, creating opportunities for Antwan Odom and Jonathan Fanene to make plays up front. Ngata hasn't played as well as last season, and he draws too many penalties. Raheem Brock (IND) plays effectively all over the line. Dockett is the driving force on Arizona's defense. Kevin is the better half of Minnesota's Williams Wall. Aubrayo Franklin (SF) has been getting some hype, but he's a good player, not a great one. I prefer Mike Patterson (PHI), Ryan Pickett (GB), and Justin Smith (SF), who is more of a DE but is listed here.

Free Safety

Jairus Byrd (BUF); Darren Sharper (NO)

I know nothing I say will stop you from voting for Ed Reed (BAL), but he doesn't deserve it this season. Byrd leads the AFC with 8 interceptions, but if you don't like him, pick Antoine Bethea (IND) or Eric Weddle (SD). Sharper seems like an obvious choice to me: 8 INT for 355 yards and 3 TDs. Nick Collins (GB) would be my next choice.

Inside Linebacker

David Harris (NYJ), Ray Lewis (BAL); Patrick Willis (SF), Nick Barnett (GB)

The Patriots really missed Jerod Mayo (NE) while he was hurt, and he'd probably be on my ballot if he'd played the whole season. Lewis isn't the player he once was, but that tackle on Darren Sproles in Week 2 was vintage Ray, as good a tackle as I've seen this season. I don't think Willis is as good as the hype, but he's certainly good. The Steelers have three players listed at this position, and they're all good, but my sleepers are Gary Brackett (IND) and Kirk Morrison (OAK). Brackett doesn't enough credit for the way he coordinates Indy's defense, and Morrison is overlooked because he plays for such a bad team. He's still a year or two away, but Morrison can be a great player. In the NFC, 34-year-olds Keith Brooking (DAL) and London Fletcher (WAS) would also be good choices. I thought Brooking was slowing down, and I'm shocked at how effective he's been this season. He makes a lot of plays.

Outside Linebacker

James Harrison (PIT), Elvis Dumervil (DEN), Brian Cushing (HOU); Lance Briggs (CHI), DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Chad Greenway (MIN)

Dumervil leads the NFL in sacks. I'd like to see him get more consistent pressure even when he doesn't make the play, but Dumervil seems to get to the quarterback once or twice every game, and that earns a spot here. Jarret Johnson (BAL) has surpassed Terrell Suggs (BAL) as the playmaker in Baltimore's linebacking corps. This isn't just Suggs drawing double-teams: Johnson is better right now. A trio of rookies, Cushing, Clay Matthews III (GB), and Brian Orakpo (WAS), all deserve recognition here — particularly Cushing, who leads the AFC in tackles and has really excelled in pass coverage. Thomas Davis (CAR) was having a terrific season before going on injured reserve. Julian Peterson (DET) is having a decent year playing on a terrible defense.

Kick Returner

Joshua Cribbs (CLE); Clifton Smith (TB)

Easy choice in the AFC, tough one in the NFC. Percy Harvin has been an exceptional kick returner (29.8 avg, 2 TD), but he doesn't return punts. DeSean Jackson (PHI) is easily the NFC's best punt returner (15.5 avg, TD), but he doesn't do kickoffs. Smith excels at both (29.1, 10.1, KR TD) and is probably the best overall. You could go with any of those three. In the AFC, Cribbs continues to set himself apart. He leads the conference in punt return average and is one of only two players (Eddie Royal, DEN) to return both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns this season. Cribbs also does subtle things to help his team, like returning anything he can get his hands on, even if it might hurt his return average. He only has three fair catches all season.

Kicker

Sebastian Janikowski (OAK); Ryan Longwell (MIN)

Janikowski has been effective this season on both field goals and kickoffs. Longwell's only missed kick this season came on a block. Longwell was also the best kicker in the NFL last year. I do wish he was better at kickoffs. Longwell's closest competition was probably David Akers (PHI), having his best season in years. He's not on the ballot, and shouldn't be, but rookie kickoff specialist David Buehler (DAL) gives the Cowboys an extra 25 yards of field position per game.

Punter

Mike Scifres (SD); Mat McBriar (DAL)

Let's talk AFC West, where there are three elite punters. Shane Lechler (OAK)'s punting philosophy is diametrically opposed to those of Dustin Colquitt (KC) and Scifres. Lechler's is simple: bomb the ball as far as possible and let the coverage team do its job. He gets a ton of touchbacks and a ton of returns, but he leads the NFL in both gross and net average. Colquitt is a more careful punter, looking to maximize field position and prevent big returns even when that means hurting his gross average. He leads the AFC in punts downed inside the 20 and is second in fair catches. Lechler has twice as many punts returned as Colquitt does. Scifres works with a short field and is the best at avoiding touchbacks. I've criticized McBriar in the past for Lechler-esque excesses, but this season he leads the NFC in fair catches and I20:TB ratio, with 29 punts down inside the 20-yard-line and only one touchback. He even forced a fumble when making a tackle in Week 10. Enthusiastic choice. Don't vote for anyone else.

Special Teamer

Joshua Cribbs (CLE); Tracy White (PHI)

There are seldom satisfactory choices on this part of the ballot, but it's refreshing to finally see Cribbs listed here. He's the best all-around special teamer in the league. White is a reasonable selection in the NFC.

The teams I voted for most this season were the Vikings (8) and Colts (7). Last season, my leading teams were the Giants (7), Jets (6), and Titans (6).

You can vote here.

Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year — Drew Brees (NO)
Defensive Player of the Year — Charles Woodson (GB)
MVP — Drew Brees (NO)
Coach of the Year — Sean Payton (NO)
Assistant — Mike Zimmer (CIN)
Rookie of the Year — Brian Cushing (HOU)

I like Peyton Manning (IND) and Jim Caldwell (IND) just as much as Brees and Payton, but I've heard nasty rumors about the Colts resting their starters, and that's my tie-breaker right now in a pair of votes that would otherwise be too close to call.

This is my eighth year selecting a Pro Bowl team for Sports Central (2002-09). As we wrap up the decade, my most-chosen team is the Patriots (37), while my least-chosen — by far — is the Lions (4). No one else had less than 9.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:04 AM | Comments (1)

December 1, 2009

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced this year's semifinalists over the weekend. My favorites (not predictions) to advance: Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Don Coryell, Terrell Davis, Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Kevin Greene, Russ Grimm, John Randle, Jerry Rice, Shannon Sharpe, Emmitt Smith, Paul Tagliabue, Steve Tasker, Aeneas Williams.

* Not that this was the boldest prediction, or that I was the only one to make it, but just for the record, we called this Charlie Weis thing more than four years ago. Fired with six years left on his contract. Tip-top organization, Notre Dame.

* Longest active win streaks: Colts and Saints (11), Chargers (6), Titans (5), Vikings (4), Packers (3). Losing streaks: Browns (6), Bears (4), Bucs, Rams, Steelers, and Texans (3 each).

* Tiger Woods' personal life is not your business. Get one of your own.

* Everything is a joke at FOX, and sometimes their team has trouble getting away from that. Terry Bradshaw gave a sincere and impassioned plea for the league to do more to protect players from head injuries, citing his old friend and teammate, Mike Webster. Howie Long soberly agreed with Bradshaw, and then Michael Strahan made a joke about the whole thing. How tone-deaf are you to start laughing while a man is speaking about his dead friend and addressing an issue that's important to him? This isn't just Strahan, it's the whole culture there.

***

We all love getting to watch additional football games on Thanksgiving, but the downside is having to tolerate the announcers on a day when you're trying to concentrate on the positives in life. FOX's top announcing team is the worst. Joe Buck is enough to make me hate the holiday, and Pam Oliver seems insincere even when she's covering a story like Charles Woodson's charitable work with sick kids. Buck, who has always been obnoxious, is now openly rude. Troy Aikman isn't much of an analyst, but I don't have any major complaints with him. He at least seems interested in the game, and unlike Buck and Oliver, he comes across as a reasonably nice person.

CBS featured the least offensive team on Thanksgiving. They didn't do a good job, but they didn't do a terrible one, and that actually distinguished them by comparison. However, Jim Nance and Phil Simms spent several minutes on Thursday campaigning for Jim Plunkett, the only Hall-eligible QB to win two Super Bowls. Plunkett had terrible stats and never made a Pro Bowl. He had two HOF linemen, an HOF running back, an HOF tight end, and several HOF teammates on defense. Plunkett was a good quarterback, but he was in the right place at the right time. He's nowhere near a Hall of Famer.

If Thursday was your first experience with NFL Network, don't judge it based on that game. This station usually does a very good job, and Thursday's broadcast was probably the worst I've seen. The studio team was off its game, instant replays kept cutting off the beginning of the next play, and the announcing team was pathetic. Bob Papa, who was excellent last year, has been a huge disappointment this season. He doesn't know what he's talking about. Matt Millen occasionally points out something worthwhile, but you can tell why this guy failed as a GM.

Hopefully, you were all focused enough on the things you're thankful for to get past the foolishness we're forced to endure on these broadcasts. Let's move on to this week's rankings. Brackets indicate previous rank.

1. New Orleans Saints [2] — Best performances in their biggest games. They embarrassed the Giants in Week 6, and dominated the Patriots on Monday. Everyone on the team deserves praise after such an emphatic win, but I'd like to single out Sean Payton, Gregg Williams, Drew Brees, and the offensive line. Payton has done his best job when the stakes were highest. Williams, who failed as defensive coordinator in Washington and Jacksonville, kept the Patriots off-balance all game. He used a lot of three-man rushes with maximum coverage, but mixed it up with all-out blitzes. Having a couple of physical, veteran corners didn't hurt, either. Brees was magnificent, and the offensive line simply doesn't get enough credit. This is an offense, with no stars other than Brees, that is easily the best in the league. Whichever runners and receivers they put in there, the guys produce. That's a credit to the coaches, the quarterback, and the blockers.

2. Indianapolis Colts [1] — This team makes amazing comebacks routine. Most teams fall behind 17-0, and you think they're finished. The Colts go down 17, and you figure they're still probably going to win. Indianapolis has won five straight after trailing in the fourth quarter, and Peyton Manning has directed more 17-point comebacks than any other quarterback in history. It's worrisome, though, that Manning has thrown multiple interceptions in three straight games. Indianapolis has already clinched the AFC South, which might be the best division in football.

3. San Diego Chargers [4] — For the last five years, we've been arguing about the quarterback class of 2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. I know some people can't get past the Super Bowls, but I think that right now, Rivers is pretty clearly the best of those three. He's an elite passer and team leader, the standout player on the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the league. Rivers is among the NFL's top six in both passing yards and rating.

4. Minnesota Vikings [5] — Everyone is banged up this time of year. Except the Vikings. They're missing Antoine Winfield, and that's not a small loss, but he's the only starter who's hurt. Healthy teams win games, and the Vikings are remarkably healthy. They've played their best football the last two weeks, utterly dominating the Seahawks and Bears. Those teams are both terrible, but you can't control your schedule, and this is the first time the Vikings have really dictated to their opposition. If I were going against Minnesota, I would play to stop the pass. Letting Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin carve up your secondary is a proven recipe for failure at this point, and Adrian Peterson has a fumble problem that can be taken advantage of if they're running the ball.

5. Tennessee Titans [7] — Vince Young followed his best running game of the season with the best passing game of his career, and no one wants to play this team right now. Young and Kenny Britt were fantastic on the game-winning 99-yard drive to beat Arizona, but the star of the show remains Chris Johnson, who is pretty clearly the best running back in the NFL. I don't know if Young has been secretly suiting up on defense, but since the QB switch, Tennessee's defense is allowing 18.2 points per game, down from 33.0 with Kerry Collins.

6. New England Patriots [3] — I don't have a problem with going for it on fourth down, but they need to quit wasting timeouts while they decide whether or not to do it. While we're on this topic, though, I would like to proclaim that everyone at ESPN is much, much smarter than Bill Belichick. Their opinions may contradict the greatest coach of this generation and even the constants of math itself, but they are very obviously correct. If your defense can't stop the opponent from scoring touchdowns, it is obviously crucial to settle for field goals, since failing to convert on fourth down could cause you to lose by 21 instead of 18. Trent Dilfer and Ron Jaworski are so conservative, they don't think teams should go for it on third down.

7. Cincinnati Bengals [6] — Lead the NFL in fewest points allowed, and they've given up more than 20 points just twice all season. Cincinnati used an old-fashioned running-and-defense formula to beat Cleveland this weekend, and completed a 6-0 sweep of the AFC North. It will be a couple of weeks before the Bengals can officially clinch the division title, but they appear to have it pretty well sewn up at this point. The Colts have already claimed the AFC South, while the Saints and Vikings can both clinch their divisions next week.

8. Dallas Cowboys [10] — Tashard Choice should be starting for someone. Every time this guy gets a chance to play, he does something good. I don't understand why the Cowboys don't call more plays for him. The Raiders aren't the most challenging opponent in the league, but NT Jay Ratliff played awfully well on Thursday. Dallas is 5-1 since its bye.

9. Baltimore Ravens [12] — They're a month and a half removed from their three-game losing streak, and 3-2 since the bye, against a murderous schedule (four of the five games against teams over .500). Michael Oher, who is the subject of a new movie, got more attention from the announcers during this game than I can ever recall for an offensive lineman. Unfortunately, he got schooled by Pittsburgh LB Lamar Woodley and was called for a couple of penalties. New kicker Billy Cundiff has endured a lot of drama since joining the team two weeks ago. Not only did both contests go down to the wire, he attempted 6 field goals in his first game with the team, and this week tried a 56-yard FG as time expired before hitting the game-winner in overtime.

10. Arizona Cardinals [8] — Made the right choice by resting Kurt Warner this week. Matt Leinart played fine and gave them a chance to win. The Cardinals still have a two-game lead in their division, and even if Warner misses another start, the Cardinals will remain heavy favorites to win the NFC West. Reports last year indicated that Warner considered retirement after witnessing a serious injury to teammate Anquan Boldin, and Warner is 38, so I wouldn't expect him to take risks with his health at this point. Leinart, who started his first game in more than two years, lost a last-minute heartbreaker to Vince Young for the second time. Most of us have seen LaRod Stephens-Howling's KR TD by now, but he also downed two punts inside the five-yard line. That's a pretty awesome performance on special teams.

11. Green Bay Packers [15] — Played against the Lions on Thanksgiving for the 19th time, and made a rout of it on the strength of standout performances by Aaron Rodgers (348 yards, 3 TDs), Donald Driver (142 yards, TD), and Charles Woodson (2 INTs, forced fumble, fumble recovery, sack). It's especially encouraging to see Rodgers throw the ball away instead of taking sacks. Everyone in green looked good on Thursday, though, with the much-maligned offensive line also playing notably well. The Packers have won three in a row since their loss to 1-10 Tampa Bay, and are 5-2 since the bye. Green Bay is +17 in turnovers this season, by far the best in the league.

12. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — Suffered a pair of potentially important injuries in Sunday's nailbiter win over Washington. DeSean Jackson got a concussion, and Brent Celek injured his left hand. Celek and Jackson are the team's top two receivers this season. On a day when Philadelphia's defense didn't play particularly well, a pair of big plays (interceptions by Asante Samuel) and success in the running game bailed them out.

13. Houston Texans [13] — Three straight losses, but two of them were to the Colts, and the other was against red-hot Tennessee. Those defeats, all close, were preceded by three pretty good wins. Houston obviously isn't an elite team, but it's clearly above average. Steve Slaton and Chris Brown ran effectively on Sunday, and I think it was a mistake to let Matt Schaub air things out so much after they built a big lead. Schaub had three second-half turnovers, one of them returned for a touchdown. You run to protect a lead. DE Antonio Smith had more 15-yard penalties (2) than tackles (1) this weekend. The Texans finished with 10 penalties for 129 yards. To be fair, 43 of them came on a bad call for pass interference. Nine for 86 yards is still a lot.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers [9] — Dennis Dixon's interception in overtime was a crucial mistake, but he played pretty well on Sunday night, acquitting himself admirably in a nationally-televised starting debut against a fierce rival. I realize Dixon was the third-string QB, but I was surprised by the coaching staff's lack of faith in him, not even trying to get into field goal range at the end of the first half. That's playing not to lose. This was a big game, and the defeat could cost the Steelers a playoff spot, but resting Ben Roethlisberger was the right move. Big Ben has frequently played hurt, and he usually has not performed well in those games. More importantly, head injuries can prematurely end careers and even lives. This game was important, but it wasn't worth Ben's whole future.

15. San Francisco 49ers [20] — With the Jaguars focused on containing Frank Gore (16 carries for 33 yards), Alex Smith had his best game since taking over as starter (232 yards, 2 TD, no sacks or interceptions). Fourth-year tight end Vernon Davis and rookie wideout Michael Crabtree continued to impress, and they give this team talent it can build around in the receiving game. The real story for San Francisco, though, was the play of its defense, which came up with six sacks and two turnovers, holding Jacksonville to just three 3rd-down conversions on 12 tries. Justin Smith is a playmaker.

16. Miami Dolphins [14] — Losing to the Bills is pretty bad, but this game wasn't the blowout it looked like on the scoreboard (31-14). The Dolphins were winning at the beginning of the fourth quarter (14-7), and they were only down by a field goal with 2:30 to play. Buffalo scored 24 points in the fourth quarter and 17 just in the last four minutes, but this was a close game. Chad Henne threw a career-high 3 interceptions, and Ricky Williams added a fourth, but the Dolphins are the same team they were a week ago.

17. New York Giants [16] — Five losses in their last six games and, man, they looked awful against Denver. Eli Manning's decision-making was terrible: throw the ball away! Don't risk throwing interceptions or getting your receivers killed. Brandon Jacobs looked incredibly slow, and the whole running game was punchless. Both the offensive and defensive lines were badly outplayed. This game wasn't even as close as the score indicates, and the Giants just flat-out didn't show up. You obviously blame the players for their performances, but this starts with the coaching staff.

18. Atlanta Falcons [18] — Matt Ryan will miss next week's game against Philadelphia with turf toe, but I'm not sure how big a deal that is. Ryan has struggled recently, and backup Chris Redman played well off the bench. Yeah, the Falcons are better with Ryan in the game, but I don't think the difference is a big one right now, and a week off might do him some good.

19. Denver Broncos [27] — Are the real Broncos the ones who started 6-0, or the ones who dropped four straight after that? This team invariably seems to defy expectations. Denver absolutely dominated the Giants in its Thanksgiving win, but how do you collect three false start penalties playing at home? Brandon Marshall made a pair of jaw-dropping catches on Thursday night.

20. Carolina Panthers [17] — Jake Delhomme vs. Mark Sanchez: the Interception Bowl. Delhomme, the veteran, won easily, throwing 4 picks to the rookie's 1 pick. He may have had an unfair advantage, though, in the form of a broken finger. Matt Moore will start next week if Delhomme is unable to go.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars [19] — Dispiriting loss after they looked ready to make a playoff push at 6-4. To give you an idea how well their record reflects their actual power, the Jaguars have played nine games in a row against teams with losing records. Kicker Josh Scobee is not having a good year.

22. New York Jets [22] — Darrelle Revis is an exceptional player, but if the Jets need 4 interceptions every week to win, it's going to be a long December. The Jets don't have effective quarterback play, and you can't win consistently without effective quarterback play. This team went 3-0 in September, then 1-3 in October and again in November. That's what I'd predict for December, too.

23. Washington Redskins [21] — Bingo jokes were all the rage a month ago, but it seems pretty clear at this point that the offense is better with Sherm Lewis calling the plays. Since he took over, the team has averaged 18.2 points per game, which isn't very good, but does represent an improvement from 13.7 — against weaker defenses — before that. Also, piece of advice to anyone playing Washington: don't start the game with an onside kick. That's high-risk, high-reward, but it's not worth taking a high risk against a team this weak, and the reward probably won't be necessary to beat them. If you really want, try it in the second half if you're tied or trailing.

24. Kansas City Chiefs [24] — The Chargers have their number: San Diego won their first meeting by 30 points, and this one by 29, a combined score of 80-21. Against everyone else, the Chiefs are 3-6 and have been outscored 202-162. That's still bad, but it's respectable. Jamaal Charles has played well and looks like a viable replacement for Larry Johnson.

25. Buffalo Bills [26] — New starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has the fourth-highest passer rating on the team, trailing the man he replaced, Trent Edwards, as well as RB Fred Jackson and punter Brian Moorman, who have one pass each. What Fitzpatrick has done is get Terrell Owens involved in the offense. In the two weeks with Fitzpatrick starting, Owens has his two highest yardage totals of the season, and has scored 2 of his 3 touchdowns. Buffalo's opportunistic defense, which ranks second in the league with 21 interceptions, was the difference this week. On Thursday, this team will be the Toronto Bills, hosting the Jets across the border.

26. Seattle Seahawks [25] — They're 2-0 against the Rams, 2-7 against everyone else. Remember when Matt Hasselbeck was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC, if not the whole league? Only two years removed from his last Pro Bowl, Hasselbeck now appears average at best. The same thing happened to the Rams' Marc Bulger. I don't know if it's departed teammates, or injuries, or something else, but Hasselbeck — who ranks 22nd in passing yards and 19th in passer rating — doesn't appear to have a bright future at this point.

27. Chicago Bears [23] — A little worse every week, they're 1-6 since the bye, beating only the hopeless 1-10 Browns. Injuries are mounting on defense, and Jay Cutler laughs at any quarterback who tries to match his league lead for interceptions. A loss to the Rams next week is unlikely but definitely plausible. I say it happens if Steven Jackson plays the whole game and Cutler throws multiple picks. Bears fans have made much of the Jay Cutler trade yielding fifth-round draft pick Johnny Knox, and my question for those fans this week is: if you had to choose one, who would you rather have, Cutler or Knox?

28. Oakland Raiders [28] — They haven't quit, or at least didn't want to get embarrassed in front of a national television audience. It's hard to believe they've beaten two good teams, though. The Raiders just don't have the weapons to be consistently competitive. Oakland averages less than 1 touchdown per game.

29. St. Louis Rams [29] — Out-gained the Seahawks by 99 yards, made more first downs, averaged more yards per play, and still lost by double-digits. They were -1 in turnovers, failed two fourth-down conversions, missed a field goal, and lost field position on special teams. Good teams, like the Colts, find a way to win even when they make mistakes. Bad teams, like St. Louis, find a way to lose even when they do things right.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [30] — In the last three months, they've fired both the offensive and defensive coordinators. The results speak for themselves. Some fans and analysts are actually patting Raheem Morris on the back for this week's defensive performance against a 32-year-old QB who got no reps in practice, has never been viewed as a starter, and hadn't played in almost two years. Pardon me if I'm not impressed.

31. Detroit Lions [31] — It's easy to criticize a quarterback after he throws four interceptions, and obviously Matthew Stafford made some mistakes this week. But all those mistakes are correctable, and I think he showed the potential to be a really good quarterback in this league. Third-year wide receiver Calvin Johnson is already really good, but he shouldn't have played on Thursday. He obviously wasn't anywhere near 100%, and his value as a decoy didn't justify setting back his healing by a week. Punter Nick Harris played very well this week and is having the best season of his nine-year career. Speaking of nines, the Lions this week clinched their ninth consecutive losing season.

32. Cleveland Browns [32] — Last year's winless Lions scored 268 points. The Browns are at 122 and would need to average 29.2 per game to match that. Detroit was held to less than 10 points twice last season. Cleveland has already been held to single-digits seven times. When the Browns (11.1 ppg) play Oakland (10.5 ppg) in Week 16, the game will end in a 0-0 tie. The last time this really happened was 1943, Giants vs. Lions.

Please check back tomorrow for Sports Central's 2009 Pro Bowl selections, as well as midseason awards including MVP, Coach of the Year, and Rookie of the Year.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:58 AM | Comments (6)

ACC Looking to Improve on Big Ten

It's become a tradition unlike any other. No, I'm not Jim Nantz talking about The Masters. I'm referring to a college basketball staple that goes all the way back to the late '90s. Over the next three nights, teams from two of the biggest and best conferences will come together for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Eleven games will decide which region will claim bragging rights for the next 300 and some odds days. And in those eleven matchups, here are some of the highlights:

The Opener: Penn State at Virginia

Tony Bennett has made a splash in his first few games as the Cavaliers coach, losing on the road at South Florida and Stanford. This will be the first big-name opponent he'll host since moving to Charlottesville. It will be interesting to see how Bennett's style will work across the ACC, but if the last two NCAA tournaments are any indication, this style might be more suitable for Big Ten teams to handle.

Penn State hasn't faced the quality of opposition that Virginia has, meaning this will be the season's first test for the Nittany Lions (they went 1-2 at the Charleston Classic, barely beating Davidson for seventh place). This isn't the same team that won the latest postseason NIT, but a couple of starters from that team are back. If the people in State College hope to see more postseason basketball in 2010, a win here would be a step in the right direction.

The Headliner: Michigan State at North Carolina

The juiciness of this contest is everywhere. A rematch of last season's National Championship Game. An ultimate shot at revenge, and a proving ground, for the Spartans. A chance for the Tar Heels to rebound from the loss to Syracuse in New York. Another showcase of MSU's returning talent and UNC's emerging front-court star power.

In terms of the near future, this matchup could be a "better win" for either side. Carolina continues their brutal non-conference slate, as three of the next four are against top-flght opponents (at Kentucky, vs. Texas). On the other hand, Michigan State won't plan on much more heft out of conference. Except for a trip to Austin on December 22nd, the Spartans won't have many other chances for quality wins to impress any selection committee members.

The Sleeper: Minnesota at Miami

Just like Penn State, the Challenge will present the Hurricanes with their toughest test to date. Also like the Lions, Miami played down in South Carolina at the Charleston Classic. Unlike PSU, the 'Canes won the tournament and remain undefeated going into Tuesday's showdown. People are pegging Minnesota as a tourney team, so a victory here could go a long way on South Beach.

The Gophers just got done with a tourney of their own out West in Anaheim. Tubby Smith's squad got an impressive win in the quarters over highly-ranked Butler. But consecutive losses to Portland and Texas A&M have put more emphasis on a good performance against a surprising ACC team. This could also be the last game that might trip up Minnesota before going to Purdue on January 6th. After Miami, the Gophers get the next six at home, then play at Iowa.

The Potential Blowout: Virginia Tech at Iowa

The Hawkeyes dropped their first two games to UT-San Antonio and Duquesne ... in Iowa City. Add in the fact that they got housed by Texas and Wichita State in Kansas City. Looking at those results, any team from the ACC might be licking their chops to play at Iowa. That's all I can say.

This game barely made it over Maryland going to Indiana. The Hoosiers did not impress in an eighth-place (i.e. last) finish at the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. But at least there haven't been any shockers in Bloomington ... yet.

The Under-the-Radar: Northwestern at N.C. State

Alongside Miami, N.C. State has to be one of the surprises of the young season. The Wolfpack swept through the much less heralded Glenn Wilkes Classic, surviving Auburn in the final. Other than that, there's not much to note in the team's 5-0 record. But expectations might be fraying nerves. Sidney Lowe is in his fourth season at his alma mater, and after 20 wins in year one, he's gone .500 the last two campaigns. This year may be his last to get a tournament bid together.

And into all that expectation comes Northwestern. Execpt for a loss to Butler, the Wildcats are off to a fast start. After taking down Notre Dame and Iowa State in Chicago over the weekend, the purple and white sit at 5-1. As noted in an earlier column, Northwestern is trying to earn their first ever NCAA tournament bid. Now that they have a couple of solid neutral court wins on the resume (it wasn't technically on their home court in Evanston), they can focus on a solid road victory to puff up their chances.

There have been interesting matchups across the board for each Challenge, and this one is no different. Can Duke shooters overcome Wisconsin's rugged defense? Will Florida State build on their tournament win in Orlando and beat a good Ohio State squad in Columbus? Can Wake Forest recover from a shocking defeat to William & Mary by upsetting Purdue on the road?

But all of these questions pale in comparison to the big one...can the Big Ten finally win the Commissioner's Cup? The first 10 (TEN!) have resided on the East Coast. Now, does the Midwest have enough will to steal the Cup from where everyone says is its rightful home? Here's my take:

Virginia def. Penn State
Maryland def. Indiana
Michigan State def. North Carolina
Northwestern def. N.C. State
Virginia Tech def. Iowa
Purdue def. Wake Forest
Michigan def. Boston College
Duke def. Wisconsin
Ohio State def. Florida State
Clemson def. Illinois
Minnesota def. Miami

By the slimmest of margins, the Challenge will go to the way of the Big Ten. I hope the Commissioner's Cup likes making snow trophies.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:51 AM | Comments (0)