Also see: NFC Contenders and Pretenders
As we get to the midpoint of the NFL season, the contenders start to separate themselves from the pretenders. Heading into Week 9, the Indianapolis Colts remain as the lone unbeaten team in the AFC with the Broncos holding tight with just one loss. The Bengals and Steelers sit atop the AFC North at 5-2, with the Bengals holding the head-to-head tie-breaker after beating the Steelers a few weeks ago. The Patriots sit comfortably atop the AFC East and as long as Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are around, they should never be taken lightly. So the question remains, who are the contenders and who are the pretenders in the AFC right now?
Indianapolis Colts
It is hard to find anyone in the league playing as well as Peyton Manning and the Colts right now. Manning has thrown for at least 300 yards in six of the Colts' seven games this year, emerging as an early favorite to take home another MVP trophy.
With Manning locked in and the defense allowing only 13 points a game, it is hard to imagine anyone wresting the top spot in the AFC away from them right now. They still have some good tests remaining on the schedule with two games against the Texans, and games with the Patriots and Ravens on tap for the month of November. After that stretch, it is fairly smooth sailing with just the Broncos and the fading Jets left on the schedule with a bunch of also-rans.
With a three-game lead over the second-place Texans, the Colts all but have the AFC South wrapped up and barring major injury should win at least 12 or 13 games this season without too much trouble this season. If they clinch home-field, they will be the odds-on favorites to come out of the AFC, but if they have to go to Pittsburgh, Denver, or New England in January, then all bets are off.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos arguably played the best ball in the league over the first seven weeks of the season. Then came Week 8 and the Ravens, who pummeled the Broncos to the tune of 30-7 this week. It is going to be interesting to see how the Broncos rebound this weekend when the Steelers come to town. The Broncos remain in the number two spot, but could go into a funk if they do not rebound against Pittsburgh on Monday night.
After the Steelers, the Broncos still have games with the Colts and Eagles sprinkled amongst games against the Redskins and the rest of the AFC West. They have a game with the Giants on the slate Thanksgiving night, as well.
The Broncos are still the team to beat in the West and should easily win 11 or 12 games this season. It all hinges on how well they bounce back from the loss to Baltimore. Is it just one of those cases of a good team having a bad day or did the Ravens give everyone else the blueprint to beating Josh McDaniels?
New England Patriots
The Patriots are always going to be a team nobody wants to see in the playoffs. It does not get more scary than facing Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in a big game. They have both been there before and are masters at coming through in the clutch. The main keys to the Pats' success this winter revolve around getting some consistency out of the running game and keeping key players on defense healthy for the stretch run. The Pats have gotten healthy feasting on the dregs of the league in the Titans and Buccaneers.
Just how many of their ills they have fixed the past two weeks will be discovered when they face the Dolphins, Colts, and Jets coming out of their bye week. The Dolphins have not lost to an AFC East opponent this year, they will be traveling to Indy to take on the Colts, and the Jets already own a victory against the Pats this season.
The Pats currently own a two-game lead over the Jets and Dolphins in the division and wins against them would all but warp up the division for New England. They are also considered to be a notch below the league's elite that includes the Colts, Broncos, Vikings, and Saints. Beating the Colts would put the Patriots right back in the discussion as being one of the league's elite teams.
They also have games against the Saints and Texans remaining on the schedule. If the Pats are still a legit contender, they will win 12 games this year. If not, they are looking at maybe 10 wins this year.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a tipped pass and a bad half away from being 7-0 coming out of this week's bye. The Bengals are a tough team to figure as they keep taking games down to the wire this year. They lost on a last-minute play to the Broncos and beat the Steelers, yet they let the Browns take them to overtime, lost at home to the Texans, and buried the Bears.
The fact that the Bengals have won so many nail-biters this year gives them some toughness and character; they now know they can win those tough, close games that they would have tanked down the stretch in the past. Few are running the ball as well as Cedric Benson is this year, Carson Palmer seems to have settled in and found his groove the past three weeks, and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has the defense flying to the ball and playing better than it ever has under Marvin Lewis.
The Bengals' biggest speed bump could be whether they find someone who can pickup the pass rush without Antwan Odom out for the rest of the year. Odom has 8 of the team's 17 sacks and they are lacking someone who can get to the quarterback on a consistent basis without him. An anemic pass rush was a big weakness for the Bengals last season.
Cincinnati gets right back at it facing division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh right out of its bye week. The Bengals then have a soft stretch in the schedule where they face the Raiders, Browns, and Lions before facing the Vikings in Week 14.
If things go their way, the Bengals could win 12 games and with four games remaining against teams that currently hold two or fewer wins, they should easily win at least 10 games this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
After dropping two of their first three games, the Steelers seem to have shaken off the Super Bowl hangover and have reeled off four straight wins, including handing the Vikings their first loss of the season. Rashard Mendenhall has rejuvenated what was a stagnant running game the first three weeks. Mendenhall is averaging 93 yards and has scored 4 touchdowns since being inserted into the starting lineup in Week 4.
The Steelers have games against the Broncos and Bengals and two still to play against the Ravens. They also have games left against the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs ,making them a virtual lock to win at least 8 games this year.
Pittsburgh should win at least 11 or 12 this year and the upcoming game against the Bengals in Week 10 could very well end up deciding who wins the AFC North this season.
Houston Texans
At 5-3 for the first time in franchise history, the Texans appear to be poised to make their first ever playoff appearance. Like the Bengals, this is another team that is tough to pin down. The Texans lost their first two games at home to the Jets and Jaguars this season, yet they are 3-1 on the road, including a win at Cincinnati. One thing that is disconcerting is they seem to take halves of games off. They let the Cardinals get up 21-0 in the first half before falling short 28-21 in the second half. They were up 21-0 at the half against San Francisco, only to end up edging them out 24-21 in the end.
This weekend's game in Indianapolis will go a long way in telling us just how good this team really is. They still have two contests against Indy, and a game against the Pats, which will be tough ones for them to pull off. There are also games against the Jags, Titans, Rams, Dolphins, and Seahawks remaining. All are very winnable games, but given they have lost to the Jags and a middling Jets team some of these could go either way. They should beat the Titans, Rams, and 'Hawks with little trouble, but the Jags and 'Phins could be tough ones for them.
Either way, this team could easily win 10 or 11 games or end up with 7 or 8 wins depending on how consistent they play the second half of the season. This is still a relatively young team that is trying to find an identity and figure out how to win games. A win against Indy could propel them to a huge season and a bad loss could send them reeling back to mediocrity. However, it ends up I am not sure the Texans are a team that is going to do any serious damage in the postseason this go around.
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are currently on the outside looking in, but the thing to keep in mind about this team is they have a history of finishing seasons on a high note. They have not lost a game in the month of December since the '05 season and have won at least one playoff game each of the last two seasons. The Chargers have the talent to beat anyone on any given Sunday, but I am not sure they have the leadership at the top to be taken seriously. Head coach Norv Turner seems to have a bad habit of finding ways to inexplicably lose big games.
Baltimore Ravens
Beating the Broncos makes the Ravens a team to keep an eye on the second half of the season. With the Colts, Steelers, and Bengals looming on the schedule in three of the next four weeks, the Ravens will have a chance to get right back into the thick of things in the AFC. If they win those three games, they are potentially 8-3 and right back in the discussion as one of the league's best teams. If they lose two or three of those games, they are looking at being 5-6 or 6-5 and thinking about next season.
Republished with permission from PopPickle.
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