Seven weeks done. An unofficial half-way point. And what do we know?
There are three teams that, as expected, are very good if not great. And a lot of other teams that haven't done anything special. With the clock ticking, they might want to wake up and start, since we're at the midterm. So pop some Adderall and wake up, or you might miss a golden opportunity. Otherwise we might be heading to a predictable title game match-up I had feared.
No one can rationally dispute anything other than the order of the top three right now. Alabama, Florida, and Texas are ahead on the grading curve. Undefeated. Beaten at least two pretty good teams. Highly regarded talent from the outset. But these are pretty minimum requirements. These teams are not unassailable, and are not reducing opponents to rubble.
But few teams have put together the type of first half to make the jump. In 2007, the last time the elite were this vulnerable, a gaggle of teams stepped up and had shots to hold on to a top-two slot and title game berth. They just couldn't finish it; Boston College, South Florida, USC, West Virginia, Cal, Oregon, Kansas, and Missouri all crashed basically as soon as they got into the drivers' seat. This year, no one seems to be even calling "shotgun."
Sure, Boise State and TCU are also undefeated and have beaten teams like Oregon and Clemson, but without everyone losing twice, it's hard to see human pollsters putting them in a title game with WAC and WMC schedules. BCS-bound? Both would deserve at least that much. And with the mediocrity in the at-large department, it may happen.
But now that the big games are done for these outsiders, we take a look at the major conferences one-by-one, checking out what's going on and who's in position to make a jump the grading curve in the second half. Because, hey, the BCS conferences are the only ones that matter, right?
The SEC champ will play in the title game after beating overrated SEC teams.
Florida or Alabama will end this season in Pasadena. And that's fine. They are clearly two of the best three teams in the country right now, and their SEC title game will serve as a de-facto national semifinal, much like it did last year. Probably even if both lose once before hand.
The rest of the conference? Compared to other conferences, as solid as a cinderblock. About as inspiring, as well.
Ole Miss was supposed to compete, but all but bowed out of the race with a loss to a South Carolina team without a quarterback (Stephen Garcia? Still? Really?) and a decisive TKO at the hands of Alabama. Georgia can't deal with the color orange (lost to Oklahoma State, murdered by Tennessee). With new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, Auburn looked like it was on a path to revival. That is before Arkansas, having finally learned to stop someone, thrashed around the War Eagle so badly that Kentucky was able to walk into Auburn's building and win the next week, as well.
LSU remains the next best team in this conference. But they will need to go into Alabama to find the way to the SEC title game. And the Tigers haven't been lighting anyone up themselves. Outside of Louisiana-Lafayette and back-to-horrible Vanderbilt, they haven't beaten anyone by more than a score, including Mississippi State and Washington.
Oregon has an opening, and the rest of the Pac-10 doesn't suck.
USC looks beatable, on the road in particular. With the exception of a thrashing of chronic disappointment Cal, the Trojans haven't blown anyone out in four road games. Ohio State and Notre Dame had shots at the very end, and Washington, uh, you know how that story ended. The offense is looking better with freshman-with-poise cliché-generator Matt Barkley back, healthy and lethal. The defense, aside from a late game bout of narcolepsy against Notre Dame, has been solid. But this aren't your favored-by-25-against-everyone Trojans. Yet.
Oregon is in position to finally unseat the Trojans from their throne atop the Pac-10, a seat they have had at least a share of since Joey Harrington led the Ducks to the 2001 Pac-10 title. An opening day embarrassment on national TV in Boise didn't help (complete with face-punching and ensuing national reprimanding), but the Ducks have now won five straight.
The Ducks aren't getting a better shot. They get USC at home, the loudest venue in the conference, where they've averaged north of 40 points per game. USC has a freshman quarterback, albeit a special one. And they get them on October 31. Why does this matter? Pete Carroll hasn't lost in November in eight years at USC. The Ducks are fighting enough recent history as is.
Elsewhere in the Pac-10? Parity. UCLA is winless in the Pac-10 after going out to Knoxville and beating a Tennessee team that has been competitive in SEC play. Aside from beating USC, Washington gave LSU, everything it could handle and took Notre Dame to OT. Arizona is ranked. Oregon State is under the radar and pesky as always. Stanford is beating real live football teams. Cal is 1-2 in conference, but has already faced USC and Oregon, and should not finish sub-.500 in the conference after blowing out lesser Big Ten and ACC teams preseason. No one in the conference is truly bad.
Except Washington State. Which still reeks of failure and regret.
Texas is bigger in Texas. The rest of the Big 12 needs work.
The Big 12 is generally considered a good conference. This year, eh, not so much.
Oklahoma's season is as shredded as Sam Bradford's shoulder, with losses to Texas, Miami, and BYU.
Kansas State leads the Big 12 North at 2-1. This is a team that lost to UCLA, Louisiana Lafayette, and Texas Tech (by 52). Kansas is ranked. They're 5-1, with their biggest win being against ... give me a minute ... Southern Miss? Duke? They lost to Colorado. Which lost to Colorado State and Toledo. 'Nuff said for the North.
Basically what remains in this conference is Texas and little else. The next best team may be Texas Tech. It might be Oklahoma State. You know, one of those two teams Houston beat before losing to UTEP.
Nobel-winning physicists find the ACC confusing.
Sure. Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech are pretty good teams. But there is one team left undefeated in ACC play. Virginia. Yes, Virginia, a pair of conference wins with a win over Big Ten welcome mat Indiana in between.
You may be thinking, "Um, didn't I hear something bad about Virginia earlier?" Oh yeah. They lost their opener to William and Mary by 12. They proceeded to lose to non-BCS conference teams in TCU (in fairness, a very good team) and Southern Miss (in fairness, not a very good team). So beating even cut-rate ACC teams like North Carolina and Maryland should be a surprise.
Of course, to call beating Maryland a surprise might be an insult to Virginia. Maryland has losses to underachieving Rutgers and Middle Tennessee State. Oh, and they needed OT to topple James Madison, which is now 0-3 in the Colonial Athletic Conference.
Then again, Maryland did beat Clemson. And in a rant on schizophrenia, you had to know Clemson was at the epicenter. Sure enough, Clemson beat Boston College (5-2, 3-2 ACC leaders of the Atlantic), lost to Maryland (awful) and absolutely dismantled Wake Forest, a team that otherwise beats bad teams and looses to good ones. Wake is the normal kid in the dysfunctional family ready to move out and never look back as soon as it gets old enough.
Add a dash of Florida State (2-4, 0-3 ACC) having its worst start since Jimmy Carter was elected, despite crushing the highest ranked team they have faced, then-No. 7 BYU. Sprinkle in some disappointment at NC State starting 0-3 in the ACC, including Duke's first conference road win in nearly six years. And what you have is a conference that will befuddle experts with remarkable ease.
Iowa?! ... (checks earpiece) yes, Iowa is in the Little Ten driver's seat.
Ohio State has tried a new trick: not only losing the big one, but also losing a little one this year. USC and Purdue have booted the Buckeyes out of the national picture. Opening the door wide for Penn State. Penn State, however, did not try a new trick, mainly beating Iowa (seventh win in last eight meetings for the Hawkeyes).
So Iowa remains undefeated. Despite beating Northern Iowa by one. Arkansas State by three. Michigan by two. Hell, its 21-10 win over Penn State was its second largest margin of victory.
Can the Hawkeyes beat the Buckeyes on the road and win the Big Ten? Can they avoid an upset before then? Who knows? How could we tell? After all, this conference doesn't really play anyone in the first month or so. In terms of out-of conference wins, it peaks at Iowa over Arizona or Michigan over Notre Dame. Minnesota and Penn State both beat Syracuse and Minnesota dropped Air Force. It's all downhill from there for the conferences' other 23 non-conference wins.
The Big Ten has taken plenty of crap in recent years. But until it goes out and beats some teams, well, it kinda deserves it. A 4-9 record against BCS-conference schools plus Notre Dame doesn't speak well. Again, that includes the wins over Syracuse. Not much to go on. So I won't.
The Big East isn't as bad as you think. It's not good, either.
Cincinnati is good. Don't get me wrong. But would anybody feel good about putting money on them against anyone in the top 10? Anyone? Not even Chevy Chase's character in "Dirty Work" would touch that action. And he bet on Mr. T in "Rocky III." And the Bills.
The best teams the Bearcats have beaten are Oregon State and a Matt Grothe-less South Florida, albeit both on the road. Good enough for BCS contention in the Big East, not so much for national relevance. But as in the national picture, no one else seems to want it.
It will be mid-November before the Bearcats face one of their two challengers for the conference — West Virginia and Pittsburgh. The three have not beaten a ranked team. A loss to NC State hurts Pitt's image, one to Auburn hurt West Virginias, leaving the Oregon State win as the difference for Cincinnati.
But at least those three teams have taken care of their other, less-trying business. And in fairness, South Florida fired a 17-7 cannon-shot into the fast-sinking ship that is Florida State. The rest of the teams in the conference have done absolutely nothing to merit notoriety. UConn beating Baylor? Rutgers beating Maryland? Syracuse beating Northwestern? Did we just cite Northwestern as relevant? More importantly, did we just say Syracuse won a game?
Yeah, let's hold off until someone in this conference beats a ranked team outside of it. And yes, Boise State or TCU would absolutely run this conference. Mercilessly.
Top 10
1. Alabama — Steadiest team so far, even with lackluster win last week.
2. Texas — Survived scare from Oklahoma in an ugly game.
3. Florida — Two straight weeks of unimpressive wins. Still, the D is nasty.
4. USC — Actually had Notre Dame pretty well handled until an atypically apathetic fourth quarter on D. Make no mistake, that D is still stacked, and freshman QB Barkley just threw for 380 yards on 29 attempts on the road.
5. Boise State — Is there really a team below them you'd feel that good about on the blue turf right now? Won't get to the title game, but BCS worthy, and dangerous once there.
6. LSU — Haven't dominated anyone, but stayed with ... uh, kept Florida from running away. I don't care if you're facing the '85 Bears, 3 points = not a great offensive team.
7. Miami — One awful game at Virginia Tech (rain doesn't help a pass-first, run-never team). Toughest schedule breaks the tie.
8. Georgia Tech — Beat Virginia Tech. Lost to Miami. Classic 1-1, 1-1, 1-1 situation, and the three will top the Coastal once they take turns batting Virginia down the standings. Could be an ugly scenario at the end if none are upset.
9. Oregon — Like Miami, one blemish. But an ugly one, and not as many quality teams left in its wake yet (Utah and Cal aren't too bad, though).
10. Iowa — Undefeated with wins over Penn State and Arizona means you almost have to rank them. Zero convincing wins (save Iowa State), plus Big Ten impotency means you don't have to like it.
Honorable mention — TCU, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati
Leave a Comment