Cards Have to Keep Holliday

It's an image that won't soon leave the minds of St. Louis Cardinals fans.

It was last Thursday. Bottom of the ninth. 2-1 Cardinals. Ryan Franklin on the mound. James Loney at the plate. Fly ball to left. Matt Holliday charging. Ball sinking, but he got there in time.

Drop.

And what should have been out 27 turned into baserunner one as Franklin would predictably collapse and blow the lead. A 1-1 series split with two to play at Busch turned into an 0-2 hole the Cardinals couldn't overcome, and the big in-season acquisition of Holliday was all of a sudden a Bill Buckner-level catastrophe.

At first, I was furious. I mean, I'm from New England. I've seen the Buckner replay a thousand times if I've seen it once. And this was right up there. Catch the ball and it's a whole new series. But he didn't and they folded. That one play will live forever. And I'll admit I cursed out Holliday and anybody who ever met him more than few times.

The real historical significance of this is yet to be determined. If the Dodgers go on to win the World Series and Holliday chooses to sign elsewhere, it will carry far more historical weight that if the Dodgers lose and Holliday re-signs.

Now the Cardinals can't do anything about who wins the Series. They had that chance and blew it. But they do have a very serious voice in how the Holliday situation turns out.

And there's a lot more at stake to the Holliday negotiations than just historical context. In a way, the Holliday negotiations are the first step in a far more important looming negotiation — that with future Hall of Fame first baseman Albert Pujols.

After the season ended, the Cards made the first move in trying to lock up Pujols, who has two more years on his deal with St. Louis. This was his response:

"We have not sat down to talk about contracts yet. Last week, the GM [John Mozeliak] called me and I told them to talk to my lawyer. But I reiterate that money is not everything, it's better to have a competitive team that can go to the postseason."

It doesn't take much of a genius to read in between the lines there. Pujols lived through the MV3 years with Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen in their primes, and that's the type of team he wants to play on.

With all due respect to Ryan Ludwick and company, the Cardinals were no more than an MV1 on offense prior to Holliday's arrival. And even though the offense with Holliday fell apart toward the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, Pujols has clearly demonstrated the franchise will need to step up and sign guys like that — $100 million-type guys — in order to get AP to sign the rest of his career away to St. Louis.

And so this is the background with which the Cardinals enter negotiations with Holliday and his agent, Scott Boras.

By all accounts, this is a perfect marriage. With Ludwick in right field and budding star Colby Rasmus in center, Holliday would complete a very solid outfield. And with his bat in the cleanup spot behind Albert, opposing pitchers would have to think twice about always pitching around Albert (Joe Torre excepted).

Holliday has indicated his family enjoyed living in St. Louis the past two months, and the fact he received a standing ovation from the home crowd prior to Game 3 had to have an emotional impact on Holliday. The Mets, who figure to be a high bidder in the Holliday sweepstakes, certainly can't offer that.

It should be a perfect fit. The Cardinals have all the motivation in the world to make this happen — both to justify the trade that sent out top prospect Brett Wallace to the A's and to send a strong message to Pujols that the franchise is willing to spend to keep him surrounded by all-stars.

And Holliday has every reason to re-sign. Not only is he in a great bargaining position, but it's a great baseball city that fully embraced him and did everything it could to pick him up after the worst play of his career. You'd have to be a real cold bastard to not at least think you would want to play for those fans long-term.

But of course the Cardinals aren't bidding in a vacuum here. The Mets could throw down some ridiculous Texeira-level deal that St. Louis can't afford if they are going to have to give Pujols A-Rod-level money.

Or maybe Holliday wants to play out West again with a team like the Giants. Or maybe some AL team will throw ridiculous money at him and he'll bite even thought it seemed clear he's more happy in the National League.

So there's a lot of unknowns in this debate. But the one thing we do know is that the Cardinals need to go all out to make this happen. If somebody else trumps them, then so be it. But the Cardinals cannot be caught looking like they only gave a half-hearted effort.

Because if that's what happens, we could be looking at a very different kind of catastrophe in the winter of 2011.