Last year, the Phillies cruised to their second World Series championship, allowing only three losses all postseason. But why should history repeat itself? The strengths that carried Philadelphia to win a championship last season have shown signs of rust this season and the parts that were lacking are, well, still lacking.
In 2008, Phillies' bullpen was its saving grace. During last year's World Series run, closer Brad Lidge never squandered an opportunity for his team, collecting an astounding 41 saves in 41 opportunities. But this year, Lidge could not carry the load by himself, collecting only 31 saves in 42 opportunities. Manager Charlie Manuel has had to turn to Ryan Madson, but he has shown himself to be unpredictable, as well, collecting 10 saves in 16 opportunities. The bullpen, while still good enough to win a few games, is not where it was last season.
The starters for Philadelphia have not shown any improvement as a group. Last year's starters — Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers, and Kyle Kendrick — combined for a record of 51-39. This year, the four starters — Hamels, Moyer, Joe Blanton, and J.A. Happ — have collected only 44 wins as a result of a weaker bullpen.
Offensively, of the seven players to collect at least 400 at-bats in 2008 for the Phillies, six returned to the team with only outfielder Pat Burrell going to the Tampa Bay Rays. All six of those players have at least 400 at-bats again this season, but only one has improved his batting average.
No one on the team is batting .300 and no one has an on-base percentage of .400. In fact, with a collective .258 batting average, the only AL team they could beat in a World Series matchup would be the lowly Chicago White Sox.
In terms of schedule, the Phillies will easily close the door on their first opponent, the Colorado Rockies. But what will they do when they have to face the winner of the Dodgers/Cardinals series? St. Louis may be a one-man show with Albert Pujols as the NL leader in runs, but the Dodgers have six players — Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, and James Loney — in the top 40 of the National League.
Let's say the Phillies do make it past the Rockies and the winner of the Dodgers/Cardinals series. They will have to face the winner of what will most likely be a New York/Boston ALCS. Of the top 20 RBI hitters in the AL, the Yankees have four of them and the Red Sox have four of them. The Yankees also have two players — Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez — with at least a .400 on-base percentage. The Red Sox have two, as well, in Kevin Youkilis and J.D. Drew.
The Phillies have done well. Their 93 wins is impressive. They will beat the Rockies in four. But there's no way that a Phillies team with two — Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth — who are No. 2 and No. 5, respectively, in strikeouts will get past that kind of gauntlet. Not even the Washington Nationals have two guys in the top 20 in terms of strikeouts.
October 29, 2009
melody:
Hee hee- its WS game 1 for the Phils!