Those baseball purists who opposed the inception of the wild card from the start and never seem to go away have a lot to moan about now. The idea created six divisions and two wild cards in the hopes of keeping numerous teams excited and hopeful through the final games each year. And yet there remain only two mildly compelling races to be resolved in this final week of September.
Last season saw the rise of the miracle Tampa Bay Rays as they surged from worst to first and admirably held off the Red Sox in the standings by a narrow margin before then holding them off by an even narrower one in the ALCS. 2007 was a classic race in which the Rockies' mind-numbing win streak brought them back from the grave and into the winners' circle of perhaps the most epic one-game playoff baseball had ever seen. By contrast, the 2009 pennant chase seems hardly threatening.
So what truly compelling September stories are there? Well, very little really. The Yankees, Angels, and Cardinals have clinched their respective divisions, running away with them like Yankee baserunners stealing on Jason Varitek's arm. The Phillies and Dodgers are virtual locks to clinch the East and West, respectively. This leaves us with only the AL Central and NL wild card races, where each leader currently has a two-game edge on its opponent. This means either race could come down to the final day, but may just as likely be decided in the blink of an eye, perhaps even before you finish reading this.
And yet there are some very solid reasons to believe both races will go down to the wire.
The Atlanta Braves have long been an afterthought in the wild card race. Now the experts point to their easy schedule down the stretch and dominant pitching staff as a means to make them a dark horse contender in October. Atlanta will play host to the Marlins and the putrid Washington Nationals (great time to be a sports fan in the nation's capital, isn't it?), while Colorado will battle a dangerous Brewers team at home and then travel to L.A., where a solid Dodgers team may or may not have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs by that point. The Rockies will have to cross their fingers that Joe Torre's Dodgers take care of those matters before they roll into town on Friday, and rest their starters the rest of the way.
The Braves' pitching staff leads off with Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, and Tommy Hanson, all starters with ERAs under 3.00. Oh, and then there's Derek Lowe, a crafty veteran with a (Boston accent optional here) wicked hard sinker and loads of big-game experience. Their manager, Bobby Cox, has only led teams to the postseason 15 different times — it was a record, you may have heard about it — and thus, should be able to help this new Braves team deal with the pressure some.
Colorado counters with a team that features much of their players in tact from their magical 2007 NL Pennant season. Brad Hawpe, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Yorvit Torrealba, and the gang are all back for more in '09, only now they have been through these September races not long ago, and defied all the odds in triumph. This makes them more dangerous and equipped to handle the tougher competition of the final week.
Should the Rockies hang on and win the wild card, their signature moment may have already happened on Sunday. Second baseman Clint Barmes made a lunging circus catch in shallow right field, then threw back to first to double off a runner and wrapping up a tense 4-3 win over St. Louis, even as the tying run thought he was scoring from third base on an apparent sacrifice fly. Manager Jim Tracy dubbed this play the team's defensive play of the year and any man with a glove would be hard-pressed to top it over the final week.
Should the Braves make the playoffs, they would most likely draw the Manny Ramirez-led Dodgers in the NLDS. If the Rockies survive, either the Phillies or Cardinals await them. It was not long ago that the Braves were the established veterans and the Rockies were the upstarts trailing behind. In 2009 for this final week, the roles are reversed.
In the American League, the only race still alive is in the mediocre AL Central, as the red-hot Twins have snuck up on Detroit, in a last-ditch attempt to save the Metrodome for one last month of baseball. While Detroit sports the 1-2 pitching combination of Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander, Minnesota can answer with Joe Mauer, the likely MVP of the AL thanks to 28 homers and a scalding .371 batting average; absurd numbers for a catcher.
The Tigers lead this race by two games, as well. Unlike in the NL, there is the added ingredient of these teams playing head-to-head for the next four games. Starting with Tuesday's doubleheader in Comerica Park, the Twins and Tigers may very well decide the AL Central against each other. If they don't, then the Twins will finish the season at home against the Royals while the Tigers would play the White Sox at home, a team they just lost a series to in Chicago just this past weekend.
Another intriguing wrinkle involves Royals probable Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, who dominated the Twins this past Sunday in a 4-1 Minny loss, and is scheduled to start on Friday in the Dome against the same Minnesota team, potentially with much more on the line for the Twins.
Whoever emerges the winner will draw the Yankees in the ALDS. If the past four seasons have told us anything, it's that this is not a death sentence for a seemingly outmanned team. The Angels, Tigers, and Indians have all surprised the Yankees with upsets in the ALDS from 2005 to 2007. They may be the only team with triple digit wins, but this has never scared a young underdog playoff team in the ALDS with nothing to lose.
Either race could end quickly and quietly, or screw in tighter until we have another coveted (or dreaded, for fans of said teams) one-game playoff. We can only hope the story of September 2009, the last month of regular season baseball in this decade, has yet to be written. And if still nothing remarkable unfolds in this last week, fans should be mindful of one thing.
This is all merely an appetizer for the main course to be served in October. Enjoy.
September 29, 2009
Matt Vorwald:
“Zak Greinke”???
“Porsello”???
Really?
Do you even bother spell checking your work? Or know anything about baseball?