Okay, so the Minnesota Twins are suddenly (so it seems) back in the American League Central race, and possibly for keeps. Helps bump up Joe Mauer's Most Valuable Player campaign, no?
Well, not necessarily. For one thing, the Twins got back into the AL Central race as much because the Tigers haven't been able to hang onto what was once a decent enough division lead as by their own at least survivable baseball. And for the Twins, it's either win the Central or be gone for the winter.
The AL Central may not be the best division in baseball, but a team doesn't exactly look like it's been yanked up by its own stirrups when they suddenly find themselves on the threshold of sweeping a team that's been falling apart in the heat of the stretch.
It speaks well of the Twins that they could close the gap to a single game with a weekend sweep. But does it do Mauer — who tied it up at one all with a first-inning bomb, then drew a free pass that helped to lubricate the Twins' late-game comeback win (the Tigers took a 2-1 lead past the seventh) Saturday — any MVP favors?
Maybe not. Mauer, like the Empire Emeritus's Alex Rodriguez, didn't suit up for the season until May. Mauer has out-batted A-Rod by almost a hundred points and reached base a little more often while out-slugging the Yankee third baseman enough, but they're separated by two bombs and one run batted in. But their teams have very different records with each man in the lineup, even if you removed both men from the rosters and can argue the Yankees are still a much better team.
Month by month, here they are:
THE TWINS, WITH JOE MAUER IN THE LINEUP — May, 13-15. June, 14-12. July, 12-12. August, 14-14. September, 10-7.
THE YANKEES, WITH ALEX RODRIGUEZ IN THE LINEUP — May, 16-6. June, 14-11. July, 16-9. August, 18-7. September, 11-5.
That's 22 games more that Mauer's team lost with him in the lineup than Rodriguez's. That's also 12 games more that A-Rod's team won with him in the lineup.
You can argue that Mauer's been the better player this season to date. No contradiction here. But if you hold to the idea that the best player isn't necessarily the most valuable player, in terms of who's doing what to help his teams win more, it's going to be something of a tough sell convincing even the most recalcitrant Yankee hater that Joe Mauer has been more valuable to his team than Alex Rodriguez has been to his.
While I was at it, I took a look at Justin Moreneau, the Twins' first baseman down for the season with a stress fracture in his back ... with his team, oddly enough, 5-0 since he went down. He was also leading the Twins in bombs (30, though Mauer could pass him before it's all over) and ribs (100) when he went down. Morneau suited up from the word "go" in April, but here's how the Twins have looked with him in the lineup.
THE TWINS WITH JUSTIN MORENEAU IN THE LINEUP — April, 11-11. May, 14-16. June, 15-11. July, 12-12. August, 9-9. September, 4-7.
You see the Twins lost exactly the same number of games more with Morneau as with Mauer in May; two fewer with Morneau than with Mauer in June; and, played .500 ball with either/or in the lineups in July and August. And, without Mauer but with Morneau, the Twins spent April as a .500 ball club.
Now, look at September, allowing for Morneau having a little back trouble before he finally went down for the count: with Mauer, the Twins until Saturday morning were two games over .500; with Morneau, they were three games under.
It won't bump Mauer up noticeably in the American League MVP race if you believe that winning counts and the Twins haven't exactly been as much of a better team with him than the Yankees (who had a far better team on paper, anyway) have been with A-Rod.
And there's another Yankee making a very powerful MVP case, as well. He's produced more runs on the season to date than either Mauer or A-Rod. Last I looked, putting runs on the scoreboard was the name of the offensive game.
THE YANKEES WITH MARK TEIXIERA IN THE LINEUP — April, 11-8. May, 17-11. June, 15-10. July, 18-9. August, 21-7. September, 11-6.
Now, take away Teixiera's April. The Yankees in May won three more games with him in the lineup than with A-Rod while losing the same number of games. In June, they won one more and lost one fewer with Teixiera than with A-Rod; in July, two more wins and the same number of losses. Now, look at August, the beginning of the stretch, when the Yankees are pulling away from the American League East pack in earnest. With A-Rod in the lineup, the Yankees were 18-7. But with Teixiera in the lineup, they were 21-7. In September through Sunday morning, the Yankees with A-Rod are 10-5 but with Teixiera it's 11-6, pretty much the same winning percentage.
The Yankees' total record with Mark Teixiera in the lineup from May through Sunday morning is 82-43. Balance it out and you have three more wins in favor of Teixiera. That accounts for exactly half the Yankee lead in the AL East. And it makes Teixiera a bona fide MVP candidate, at least A-Rod's equal if you count their concurrent playing time, and certainly Mauer's superior if you believe that winning means something.
Mauer's season at the plate isn't something to dismiss out of hand. He may well finish off with the best offensive season ever produced by any catcher who ever played the game, even if Johnny Bench — the number two catcher all-time — may give you a decent argument, even if Bench in the seasons in question was the superior all-around catcher.
(In a tougher home park, Bench was considerably more run productive, though you can argue concurrently that Mauer hasn't had the yummy advantage of the kind of teammates Bench happened to have. Unless there's a Big Twin Machine in business that I haven't caught onto just yet.)
By the way, there's yet another Yankee in the MVP conversation. And if you look at his case by way of how his team has done with him in the lineup through Sunday morning, he's got a pretty solid MVP case in his own right — and on the grounds that get dismissed easily enough because he isn't quite the stat monster his competition seems to be thus far.
THE YANKEES WITH THE CAPTAIN IN THE LINEUP — April, 12-10. May, 16-10. June, 12-10. July, 18-9. August, 21-7. September, 12-5.
Remove April as with Teixiera, to even him out with A-Rod, and you get this: the same number of wins but four more losses in May; two fewer wins, but one less loss in June; two more wins with the same number of losses in July; three more wins and the same number of losses in August; and one more win and the same number of losses in September.
Now, compare him to Teixiera: one more win, two more losses in April; one less win but one less loss in May; three less wins but the same number of losses in June; the same team won-lost record in July and August; and, one more win and one less loss in September.
I'd have to say that, in terms of the team winning percentage with each man in the lineup, and counting each man from May forward (we're cutting A-Rod the injury slack, obviously), Derek Jeter wins ... by a nose:
THE YANKEES WITH TEIXIERA IN THE LINEUP — .656.
THE YANKEES WITH A-ROD IN THE LINEUP — .627.
THE YANKEES WITH JETER IN THE LINEUP — .658.
THE TWINS WITH MAUER IN THE LINEUP — .521.
You can (you should) adjust a little bit for Mauer having not quite the caliber of teammates Mark Teixiera, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter have. (Wouldn't it be delicious to think of how Mauer might produce with the Yankees', never mind the Big Red Machine's, kind of lineup protection?) But even if you make the proper enough adjustment I think you may discover that Mauer does not have the American League MVP case you might think him to have if you look at his batting stats alone.
Not until the Twins can nail down the AL Central, anyway. If they can nail the division down, that is. And even then...
THE BOSTON RED SOX WITH KEVIN YOUKILIS IN THE LINEUP — April, 13-8. May, 8-8. June, 18-8. July, 12-12. August, 14-9. September, 9-4.
THE BOSTON RED SOX WITH JASON BAY IN THE LINEUP — April, 14-8. May, 14-14. June, 17-8. July, 13-12. August: 14-8. September, 11-5.
The guy they used to call the Greek God of Walks is having a rather nice season himself. He's more run productive than Mauer; he's batting higher than A-Rod. Bay is also more run productive than Mauer. Incidentally, his team had only one month in double-figure losses with Youkilis in their lineup with two for Bay; there were four double-figure loss months for Mauer's Twins, three each for Jeter's Yankees and Morneau's Twins, two for Teixiera's Yankees, and one for A-Rod's Yankees.
Still...
THE RED SOX WITH YOUKILIS IN THE LINEUP — .601.
THE RED SOX WITH BAY IN THE LINEUP — .601.
The Red Sox haven't been better with Youkilis and Bay in the lineup than the Yankees with Jeter, A-Rod, and Teixiera, but they have been better — by 80 points — than the Twins have been with Mauer in the lineup. The Red Sox are farther back in the American League East, but they have a virtual lock on the wild card that the Twins — being 12 and a half back of the Red Sox in that pack — can't hope to pick.
Is Joe Mauer the most valuable Twin? No questions asked. Is he the best player in the American League this season? He makes a powerful case. But is he the most valuable player in the American League? Extremely debatable.
And to think there remain 14 regular-season games for the Twins to play and for Joe Mauer to make his irrevocable case. He added to his case reasonably enough Saturday.
September 22, 2009
Hoops Fan:
This was a pretty useless way to breakdown the MVP debate. What was Melky Cabrera’s winning percentage? I’d bet it was higher than Mauer’s. I would probably just vote for the guy that has overwhelming actual statistics on his side, which is Mauer.
September 22, 2009
Matt Vorwald:
That illogical, circular rant was probably the most useless attempt to expain the MVP race… EVER. Listing the winning % with each player in the lineup means a whole lot of nothing. You point out each % with X player in the lineup. But did you look into any other factors to that particular %? Did you look into whether any of the other listed players were ALSO in the lineup? FYI, NY has a team with 7 20HR players. Also, no investigation into the teams’ records without said players. This, as I stated previously, is a pretty useless waste of blog.
September 22, 2009
Brad Oremland:
Jeff,
This is an interesting idea, but it seems like a dangerous way of determining MVP. What is the Yankees’ record with Nick Swisher or Melky Cabrera in the lineup? Are those guys more valuable than Mauer, too? Are they MVP candidates?
The Yankees would still be a contender and a postseason shoo-in without A-Rod or Teixiera or Jeter, and from that point of view, those players aren’t very valuable at all. The Twins, on the other hand, would be sub-.500 without Mauer and out of the playoff race.
September 22, 2009
Kyle Jahner:
I’m with the commenters. This reasoning is convoluted at best. Fatally flawed is more likely.
Mauer is the MVP. Simple. Done. He’s first in the AL in BA, OBP and Slugging. You can’t get him out and he hits for power. And the smallest gap from first to second in those stats is 18 points. He’ll have over 30 HR. And he has a mediocre team in the middle of a division race, albeit a crappy one.
Oh, and does all this from a position that is absolutely barron of offensive talent and one that requires a physical grind that no other player has to go though. If you replace him with the next best hitting AL catcher, what does that do to the Twins compared with what the next best 3B or 1B would do for the Yanks? I bet the Yanks are still in the playoffs and the Twins are pulling out the golf clubs. Remember, you’re replacing Mauer with AJ Pierzynski. Miguel Cabrera for Tex doesn’t seem so bad by comparrison.
What more can an individual do? He can’t pitch. He can’t hit in the other eight lineup slots. And he can’t pay $200 million to make the Twins salary equal that of the Yankees. All he can do is be the best hitter in the AL at the hardest position in baseball. Then again, until this year most of us thought he couldn’t do that either. But he did.
September 22, 2009
Mike:
This article shows that literally anyone can post sports “analysis” on the internet. Possibly the worst reasoning I’ve ever seen in an article about baseball awards, and that’s saying something. I found the article via the News section of Google, and for a moment I thought the author might be an actual sports journalist. I was exceptionally happy to find that he’s some guy who’s only just smart enough to find his way to a keyboard. I just wish that the guys at firejoemorgan.com were still up and running, so they could dissect this mess.
September 23, 2009
Mike:
Not sound reasoning, sir. By this reasoning, the MVP is essentially required to come from whatever team has the best winning percentage, as long as that player was playing at the time.
I hate to cry East Coast bias, Yankee/Red Sox bias, but I can’t see what else this is. I personally feel that Mauer’s production has been more impressive than any of the Yankees’ production for three reasons:
1.) He’s been batting behind players hitting sub- .220 for over 2/3 of the season.
2.) All of his at bats have been meaningful at-bats. If he doesn’t produce, his team likely doesn’t win and they drop from the playoff race. The Yankees have had a playoff berth largely wrapped up for quite some time and the players have enjoyed some “garbage” time.
3.) He’s defensively very solid at the hardest position in the game, working with a very young and inexperienced rotation that largely relies on him to call a good game, which he almost always does.
Further, winning percentage, to me, is just not a good way to go about naming the MVP. That would put up insurmountable odds against every player that plays for a team that can’t afford to buy 95+ wins on the season.
And frankly, with how much talent the Yankees have purchased (purchased- not developed), I think they’ve sorely underachieved, and perhaps that should be taken into account when determining MVP.
September 23, 2009
Fistic Mystic:
I’m speechless. Absolutely speechless. And yet…
Did it never occur to you, as you wrote this article, that according to your reasoning, every player on the Yankees’ roster is more valuable than Mauer?
Statistics aren’t the end-all be-all, but they do something useful: they measure performance. By every useful measuring stick, Mauer is the best offensive player in the AL. Plus he’s a good backstop, has a tremendous arm, and calls a good game.
Joe Mauer is the AL MVP by miles.
September 24, 2009
Jeff Kallman:
Hoops Fan—-I was looking strictly at guys with MVP-calibre stats. Nice try.
Matt—-If you think that how a team performs with a guy in the lineup isn’t relevant, you must have missed all the fun over the Andre Dawson MVP.
Brad—-You don’t really think the Yankees are a shoo-in without Jeter, A-Rod, or Tex, do you?
Kyle—-I don’t need to be persuaded that Joe Mauer may be the best player in the American League this year. But I remember players having lights-out stat seasons who also did clearly make their teams contenders—-Dick Allen in 1972, anyone? If I thought the Twins without Mauer shouldn’t even be in the race, I’d hand him the MVP in the proverbial New York minute. I see the Twins still in the race in the heat of the stretch only because the Detroit Tigers haven’t been able to hold position consistently. I like Joe Mauer, even if he isn’t the best defender among the catchers. I’d take him on my fantasy team any time. But yes. Winning counts for something.
Mike I—-If you’d spent more time addressing or critiquing any of my arguments (and, by the way, I was a professional journalist for many years), you’d have a lot more credibility than you’re trying to say I lack.
Mike II—-Maybe I should have thought twice about comparing winning percentages with this or that MVP candidate in a team’s lineup, but the salient point is winning, period. And by the way, I don’t have an East Coast bias even if a) I don’t root for the Yankees as a team (been a Met fan since the day they were born), b) I’ve also been a Red Sox fan since the 1967 pennant race, and c) I’m not arguing that Joe Mauer isn’t a great player and maybe the best in the league, but I am arguing that the best player isn’t necessarily the most valuable player. Which may be a deep flaw in the hardware system if you think about it—-the best player in the league might still be toiling for a terrible team (the Twins at least are in contention) and go unrecognised. If they were to make a solidly founded best player award to go in hand with the MVP, I wouldn’t argue against it. (If they did it this year, Mauer would probably win it.)
But winning does count. As I alluded earlier—-you want another Andre Dawson argument?
—-JK.
September 28, 2009
matt vorwald:
The mere thought of your having been a “professional journalist for many years” makes me shudder. How on earth did you manage to hold a position like that with such clearly flawed logic and composition? I suppose the fact that you are now an ex-professional journalist might have something to do with that. Perhaps not. In either case, its probably best that you are rendered to a no-name blog now. Simply stated, you are wrong in about everything you have said above this comment. It takes a decent amount of talent to make an opinion be wrong, but you managed to do it.
September 28, 2009
Matt Vorwald:
Triple entry above due to website issues, sorry.
Wanted to point out the obvious to you, since you clearly don’t get it on your own:
Mauer has elevated the Twins to a .625 winning percentage in September, largely without Morneau, who was statistically absent before he was gone by injury. He has posted a ridiculous 1.027 OPS in September to lead the Twins back to contention after they were considered done by most. Your statement that inplicitly says Detroit is choking is simply wrong. They have a .560 winning percentage in September — better than their overall record. However, the Twins have been superb, and Mauer is a huge part of that success.
September 29, 2009
Matt Vorwald:
You can tell when a blogger is mentally defeated and out of his league when he starts deleting opposing viewpoints from his comment section. Thanks for deleting 2 of my posts and ultimately proving you are incompetent.
September 29, 2009
Marc James:
Matt, only I (the editor) can delete comments. You triple-posted and I deleted two of the duplicates. If anything else was deleted, it was by my mistake, no Jeff’s. Take it easy and enough with personal attacks.