The Return of Favre

On Tuesday morning, we all were given the least surprising surprise of our lives. Brett Favre changed his mind again. A press conference Tuesday afternoon confirmed the rumors that started flying again less than three weeks after Favre informed the Vikings he was going to stay retired. I had my doubts that he would be football-free for all of 2009, but I did not think he'd be starting for an NFL team in Week 1. I would have bet money that an injury could have coaxed him to come play midseason for a competitor.

Despite all the crazy talk about why Favre does things the way he does things, let's look at how much better the Vikings will be because of Favre.

Since Adrian Peterson joined the Vikings, defenses have known that he was the man to stop. Many teams stuffed nine men into the box on first and second down all game, trying all too often without success to slow Peterson down. In his short career of only 30 games, he has amassed 3,101 rushing yards at 5.2 yards per carry with 22 rushing touchdowns. He already has sixteen 100-yard games and it seems unlikely he'll slow down any time soon with things not changing at quarterback.

The Vikings at QB have been mediocre at best. Between Tavaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, Kelly Holcomb, and Brooks Bollinger not a defense in the NFL has been afraid of the Vikings' pass attack since Peterson entered the league in 2007.

How much better could Peterson be if defenses were afraid of the Vikings' air attack? We are about to find out. At 39, Favre's health is not great, but as a defense, you have to look at some of the amazing games he had when he was healthy in 2008 and wonder how afraid of Favre you need to be. Favre will take chances; he always has and he always will, which means there will be interceptions, but how different is that for the Vikings, who saw 14 interceptions to only 12 passing touchdowns in 2007 and 17 interceptions to 22 passing touchdowns in 2008?

The most valuable thing Favre will do for the Vikings is not throw lots of touchdowns, it will be making defenses afraid of what he can do. By signing Favre, the Vikings are loosening up defenses on the run enough that it is not unreasonable to expect Peterson to rush for 2,000 yards this season and even average over 6.0 yards per carry.

Staying healthy is a big question mark, but Minnesota still has an indoor stadium and as long as they do, Favre's health should hold up better than it did in New York or in Green Bay. Another factor is that Favre will not be asked to throw the ball nearly as much with the Vikings because of Peterson. It is a very mutually beneficial relationship.

Favre doesn't need to be amazing for the Vikings to be the favorite in the NFC. All he needs to do is keep the locker room happy (and that is best done by winning games), show that the deep threat is still there, and stay healthy. The Vikings are good enough all-around that Favre could have the same season he had in 2008 with the Jets, 22 touchdowns and 22 interceptions, and the Vikings will still go 12-4. Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson could have the exact same seasons and the Vikings would only go 9-7 or 10-6, but because people respect Favre more and because he knows how to handle a blitz, he will win games for the Vikings.

NFC foes, beware. The Vikings are now the team to beat in the NFC.