As we head into the NFL preseason schedule this weekend with the Bills and Titans in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday night, fantasy drafts are coming up soon.
And while some of you out there have kept informed on all the player movement during the offseason, it's always worth taking a look at how the change might impact a player's fantasy value from last season to the coming one.
After all, changing systems or moving to a team where you'll have a much better opportunity to play can have a dramatic effect on a player's fantasy production.
(It was this thinking last year that convinced me to pick up Michael Turner in the second round last year — championship!)
Another thing to consider is a player who has stayed with the same team, but will be playing in a new scheme due to a coaching turnover. He might be wearing the same uniform, but if the guy calling the plays is different, you need to take that into account.
So with all that said, here are five players who will be available far later in drafts than they should be.
QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos
Lost in all the hullabaloo over Jay Cutler is that Orton will now take the reins on an offense run by Josh McDaniels, formerly of the New England Patriots.
The Patriots pass numbers the past two seasons with McDaniels calling the plays:
2008: 534 pass attempts for 3,693 yards and 21 TD
2007: 578 pass attempts for 4,806 yards and 50 TD
Orton will have a very solid WR duo with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL, a deep stable of talented running backs, and a division not exactly loaded with stellar defenses (San Diego the exception).
Now I obviously don't expect Orton to go anywhere near Tom Brady's record season of 2007, but the 2008 Patriots numbers with Matt Cassel the primary QB are well within reach.
WR Chris Henry, Cincinnati Bengals
With T.J. Houshmandzadeh off to Seattle, there's going to be a redistribution within the Bengals passing game.
Laveranues Coles was imported from New York for $28 million, so you would expect him to slide into the second starting role. But make no mistake — Coles is no Houshmandzadeh, who averaged 98 catches for 1,042 yards and 8 touchdowns over the past three years.
Coles is a far more traditional number two at this stage of his career (10th season, turns 32 in December), meaning there will be more balls coming the way of Chris Henry, who caught only 19 in 12 games last season.
And though Henry has been the poster boy for idiot NFL players, it's been some time since he's run afoul of the league's personal conduct policy. Still just 26, it's possible he's finally figured it all out.
Don't be surprised if Henry goes for 50+ receptions and over 800 yards. And if Coles should go down to injury, those numbers could go up to 60-70 receptions and over 1,000 yards.
WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams
The first wide receiver selected in the 2008 NFL draft was one of four rookies last year to finish with 50 or more receptions and 500 or more receiving yards (53 receptions for 674 yards and 3 touchdowns).
With Torry Holt gone to Jacksonville, Avery now takes over as the undisputed top dog on the Rams WR corps.
Talent + Opportunity = Sleeper.
(Note: Keep an eye on Rams WR Laurent Robinson, as well. It looks like he's pulled ahead of the pack for the other starting spot in the Rams offense. He's tall, fast, and has good hands.)
RB T.J. Duckett, Seattle Seahawks
I'm going to thank Seattle WB Matt Hasselbeck for this one, since it was his Twitter post back during mini camps that first got my thinking about Duckett.
The crux of Hasselbeck's tweet: look for Duckett to be the main man on the goal line.
Aside from just Hasselbeck's observations, Duckett has also been reunited with Greg Knapp, who was his offensive coordinator in Atlanta, where he scored a total of 27 touchdowns from 2003 to 2005.
I expect Julius Jones will also have a resurgence thanks to Knapp and new head coach Jim Mora (plus the departure of Maurice Morris to Detroit), but it's going to be Duckett who hits pay-dirt the most often. He'll be a good guy to have on your roster for the bye-week fill-in or if your main RBs go down to injury.
WR Steve Smith, New York Giants
Ranked just the 67th best fantasy WR for 2009 by ESPN.com (one spot behind Giants rookie Hakeem Nicks), this guy might just be my favorite sleeper on the board.
Just look at all the things working in his favor:
1. He's going into his third season, which anecdotal evidence suggests is when many young WRs finally start to make their mark.
2. The top of the depth chart completely cleared out with the departure of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, and it's looking early in camp like Smith has inside position on the number one role.
3. He has a legitimate quarterback with Eli Manning who likes to throw him the ball.
4. The Giants feature a great run game to force opposing defenses to cheat toward the line of scrimmage, opening opportunities for the WRs to get behind the safeties.
Smith showed he could play last year with 57 catches for 574 yards. If he had more than just one touchdown, he would be on everybody's radar.
But he didn't, so he's not.
Take advantage.
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