Monday, July 27, 2009
2009 NFL Preseason Power Rankings
1. New England Patriots — If Tom Brady can win a Super Bowl with no running game and Deion Branch as his main (and nearly only) target, he can probably win one even if he feels the affects of his surgery. I'll take a peg-legged Brady over a healthy ... well, anybody else. That guy in the hoodie is pretty smart, too.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers — Defending champs, and the easy No. 1 team if the Patriots weren't an 11-5 team getting their best player back. Pittsburgh is really good and young, a dangerous combination.
3. New York Giants — This team has overachieved the past few years. They have two good running backs, led by the tank that is Brandon Jacobs, and they have a good, albeit slightly over-rated defense. Eli Manning did not win a Super Bowl for this team, his team won one in spite of him. He's average at best, and looks like a rookie far too often to be taken seriously as a perennial playoff-ready leader. Either way, this team lost no ground this offseason, and as such they stay near the top of these rankings.
4. Philadelphia Eagles — Huge offseason additions have given the Eagles an offense featuring a proven QB, a solid RB, and two young, explosive WRs. The defense is still good, even without their coordinator from last year. Don't be surprised if this team is playing in February.
5. Baltimore Ravens — Joe Flacco looked bad at times last year. He almost looked like a rook ... wait, he was a rookie? Yeah, he was, and he went farther than any rookie QB in history has this side of Ben Roethlisberger. And the Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league. They're not in this spot because they'll dominate the regular season, they're here because nobody wants to play them in January. And that's what it's all about.
6. Indianapolis Colts — I'm not a Peyton Manning fan. The guy has a history of throwing teammates under the bus and is endlessly overrated. That being said, he's a darn good QB, even if he is no Tom Brady. He wins ball games before January, he just usually chokes after that. Maybe a younger new head coach can energize this team and help them win when it matters. Because a team this good should have won more than one Super Bowl in the past few years.
7. Atlanta Falcons — I'll probably catch some flak for having the Falcons so high. But they're in the same position as the Patriots in a way. They're an 11-5 team that should be improved this year, with a QB in Matt Ryan who now has experience and a new Hall of Fame target in Tony Gonzalez.
8. Tennessee Titans — I believe in Jeff Fisher. The guy is just really smart. Losing a defensive mainstay and having an aging and overachieving QB may hurt, but a strong defensive and extremely young team is hard to beat, especially when older teams are fatigued come playoff time.
9. San Diego Chargers — They played much better in the second half of last year. They also play in a mess of a division that includes a team coming fresh off a rebuilding stage, a team that traded its best player and has a head coach who is determined to alienate every player on his team, and the Raiders. That's a fairly easy four or five victories just within the division. They'll win the West with ease.
10. Arizona Cardinals — This is a tough team to gauge. On the one hand, they have the amazing and seemingly ageless Kurt Warner. But on the other hand, they finished last year 9-7, and Super Bowl runner-ups have a history of doing very poorly the next season. But two things give a sliver of hope to this team: 1) they added Chris Wells, giving them a very complete offense if he pans out; 2) the Patriots broke the aforementioned runner-up trend last year (even though they missed the playoffs). I like this team a lot, but not enough to put them any higher in these rankings.
11. Carolina Panthers — I'll keep this analysis simple. Dominating young RB + vastly underrated QB + pretty good defense = a good overall team. Not great, just good.
12. Green Bay Packers- The offense has a very skilled QB, but outside of that, has a lot of question marks. The defense is solid, but not great. I still think they're a better team than they played like last year, and something tells me they'll find a way to be right there in December, and maybe even January.
13. Chicago Bears - So Jay Cutler has almost no help on offense. But he's still really good, and the Brian Urlacher-led defense is still an 11-man brick wall. That may be enough for a playoff berth. Only time will tell.
14. New Orleans Saints — Drew Brees was close to a record last year with his passing onslaught. He has young, quick WRs, Reggie Bush, and an underrated offensive line to work with. If the inexperienced defense can be mediocre, this team can contend, even in the strong NFC South.
15. Minnesota Vikings — This defensive line is easily the best in the league. If the offense can score many TDs, this team could find success this year. I say they do just that, but only if they stay far, far away from the mediocre locker room cancer that is Brett Favre. And they look poised to sign him, unfortunately.
16. Miami Dolphins — The team was 11-5 last year, and they improved over the offseason, but unlike the Patriots and Falcons, the Dolphins overachieved in a very unusual division last year. But if any team could jump drastically up these rankings, it's the Dolphins.
17. Dallas Cowboys - They play in a really good division, lost some offense (although maybe for the better), and added nobody that can make an immediate impact. Their 9-7 record from last year might be hard to duplicate, but like the Dolphins, they have potential.
18. New York Jets — The offense has a highly touted, although unproven rookie QB, an explosive and inconsistent RB, and a fairly solid line. The defense is simply stacked compared to last year's. The only question is if the team will gel together. I say they will partially, but that'll be just enough to make them slightly interesting.
19. Washington Redskins — After the Dolphins, the Redskins have the most potential to rise up these rankings very quickly. They were .500 last year, and they added Albert Haynesworth. But after the debacle of their attempt to replace Jason Campbell, how motivated will he be to win? Will he set out to prove the front office wrong, or will he be too put off to have any heart to pour into the Redskins games? I'll guess the latter.
20. Houston Texans — They should be good, but I can't justify putting a franchise who has never posted a record over .500 past the top 20. They might surprise me, and I hope they do, but they need to prove something to gain any ground here.
21. Buffalo Bills — Terrell Owens will make the offense more powerful, but will he tear the team apart? Even if he doesn't, the Bills won't be better than average.
22. Cincinnati Bengals — They played better than their record at times last year, and they get the face of their franchise back from an elbow injury. They'll probably start slow, but they might pick it up in time to stay in contention.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars — This team isn't too far removed from the playoff team of only two years ago. If all, and I mean all, of their draft picks pan out, they might be over .500 at the end of the year. But I don't see that situation materializing.
24. Seattle Seahawks — This team is so unexciting, it's almost scary. They had four wins last year, and Matt Hasselbeck isn't good enough to improve that by more than a game or two.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Call it a gut feeling, but this team just doesn't have the talent to win consistently. Having one clear-cut starter at QB wouldn't hurt, either.
26. Denver Broncos — Josh McDaniels seems determined to ruin this franchise, and the front office seems to have bought into his plan. Trading Jay Cutler away and getting no immediate return at QB cannot be defined as anything other than giving up the 2009 season.
27. Kansas City Chiefs — They improved at head coach, GM, and QB, but they were 2-14 last year, so a huge improvement would be simply winning five or six games. That remains a lofty goal for this team, however.
28. San Francisco 49ers — I've heard many people pick the 49ers as their sleeper team, but I just don't see a team featuring a QB position battle between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill has a legitimate contender. Shaun Hill is a one-hit-wonder, and Alex Smith has had a problem getting his QB rating over 70. This team is just not good enough to win more than they lose.
29. Cleveland Browns — This team is in complete rebuild mode, and looks terrifyingly like the 2008 Chiefs. So multiple wins is the target here, and three or four would be a total success.
30. Oakland Raiders — It's an Al Davis team, and they had a pretty unexciting draft. That, coupled with a new head coach, means the 2009 Raiders could be even worse than last year's 5-11 version.
31. St. Louis Rams — The Browns may be the new version of the 2008 Chiefs, but the Rams just might be the new version of the 2008 Lions. And that statement speaks for itself.
32. Detroit Lions — 1-15 would be an improvement, so they can't possibly be any higher than this.