Is Halladay Really Going to Be Traded?

For the better part of each summer, perennial baseball doormats like the Bucs, Nats, Royals, and O's plod through the "dog days" with little more than topical mention in national news publications. Alas, the last week in July rolls around and the unmistaken anonymity quickly morphs into a veritable coverage bonanza as reporters from across the country flock to catch quotes from front office personnel and interviews with the players.

I am, of course, alluding to the annual non-waiver trade deadline, this season set for July 30th.

In most seasons, popular sporting news outlets will dedicate hours of on-air coverage to assessing every potential swap. Up-to-the minute reports are published and live cut-ins to Pittsburgh, Washington, and Baltimore to interview this player or that general manager are seen from Seattle to Secaucus. Trouble is, rarely do these specials provide anything over than empty theories, unrealized potential and an anticlimactic realization that little, if anything, of import is set to go down.

I'm here to tell you that this article is no different. There will be theories, there will be potential fits, there will be rationale, but there most decidedly will be little fact aside from what is available to anyone adept at Googling and reading between the lines. Aside from that unfortunate reality, it is always a worthwhile exercise to peruse underachieving rosters and pair them with need amongst the contenders among the ranks of Major League Baseball.

Having hopefully dispensed with all high expectations, I waste no further time in presenting the 10 most valuable facts you need to know about the 2009 trade deadline:

1. Roy Halladay will be wearing a red uniform before the calendar turns to August.

The Blue Jays are seriously considering moving Roy, or else they wouldn't have thrown that out there. Halladay wanders about now with a look certainty about his future that is akin to that of a death row inmate, only his future doesn't include an electric chair, but rather a date with October baseball. The real question is no longer if he'll be moved, but to whom. While the Phillies are a popular option (and they do wear red), I find this to be quite unlikely. They just signed a short-term helper in Pedro Martinez (who should not be mistaken for Halladay), but, more importantly, they will not part with top arm Kyle Drabek, whom the Jays covet.

Since the Mets and Yankees don't wear red, they are out. Same with my beloved Cubbies and their cross-town rival White Sox. In my estimation, that leaves three realistic potential destinations with one that is more likely than the rest. St. Louis, Boston, and Los Angeles (via Anaheim) all have the prospects that the Jays could work with. Each also has some payroll flexibility and, most importantly, a real shot at postseason play. The likely winner? The Angels. L.A.A. has the luxury of sending a 26-year-old Ervin Santana eastward, giving the Blue Jays a major league-ready arm and can also include the power-hitting middle infielder Sean Rodriguez, who has pounded 23 home runs in AAA this season. Throw in a couple of spare parts, and this has the makings for a good deal for both sides.

2. The Nats deal a slugger not named Dunn.

With the Mets desperate to get themselves back into contention, they will make a move to acquire some power for a lineup starving for runs on most nights. The Nationals' Nick Johnson makes good sense for several reasons. Johnson is a good on base guy with high character, something the rabid Mets fanbase will gravitate towards immediately. All indications are that he is a solid clubhouse presence, another plus for the dysfunctional Mets. Most importantly, he can fill a hole at first that has been patched with bubble gum at best since Carlos Delgado went down with an injury early on in 2009.

With Washington in no particular position of negotiating power, they should have no problem dealing within their own division, particularly if the Mets are willing to offer the frustratingly inconsistent Oliver Perez, a player whom the Nats can plug into a rotation already and a deal that could be successfully spun to a fan base growing weary of serving up its best players to other teams each season.

3. Matt Holliday to have a new home ... across the Bay!

If San Francisco is serious about contending in 2009, they must augment their lineup and fast. While there are several options, Holliday makes good sense for a team that has the room to pick up a longer-term deal. Randy Winn is aging and can leave after the '09 season (if he himself isn't traded by this year's deadline). The Giants have several players in their system that could be considered MLB-ready and have such depth in terms of young arms that parting with one or two mid-level prospects won't hurt them one bit. Merkin Valdez is one name to watch off the current active roster and Eddy Martinez-Esteve is an outfielder with talent currently playing with San Fran's AA affiliate that may be a good match should the A's be on GM Brian Sabean's call list.

4. The Rays will acquire the starter they need to solidify their run at the postseason.

With the Indians woefully out of contention and seemingly content to offload some high-priced talent and begin their rebuilding process, Cliff Lee is a likely candidate to be shipped out of town. Teams could do far worse. In his most recent outings, Lee has been very impressive, posting two complete games in a row in his most recent two starts (from the writing of this article), which may persuade the Cleveland brain trust to hold on to this asset. But more likely is the scenario that the Indians will use this momentum to sell Lee at an even higher rate than he would have previously commanded.

While the names may vary, Tampa has more than enough talent to pry Lee away with little impact to their commitment to building from within. Expect the Indians to ask for SP Wade Davis and speedy OF Fernando Perez as a starting point.

If the Rays aren't able to get a deal done for Lee, the St. Louis Cardinals are primed to make the move for the reigning AL Cy Young winner and may be willing to part with SS Brendan Ryan, a La Russa favorite.

5. The Pirates will deal their two middle infielders.

After failing to lock up both Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez in long-term deals, the writing is on the wall for this talented duo. Wilson is likely to end up in Texas for a pitching prospect or two or maybe an outfielder like Brandon Boggs, a 26-year-old switch hitter, where he will solidify a defense and provide some consistency near the bottom of a high scoring lineup and give young Elvis Andrus some time to continue to grow into his skills.

Sanchez should wind up in the Windy City, as either a Cub or a White Sox. The Cubs are the favorite here (and not just because they are my favorite) as GM Jim Hendry tends to make at least one savvy move each year and Sanchez fits the bill as the solid defender and on-base threat the team is looking at getting in place for the stretch run. Expect someone like Kevin Hart or David Patten, both solid but unspectacular pitching prospects, to be sent back to Pittsburgh in return for Sanchez along with some lower level minor league throw-ins.

6. After dealing Halladay, the Jays will clean house.

There is a reason GM J.P. Ricciardi is looking at finalizing any deal for his ace by the Tuesday before the deadline; he wants some time to off-load his other talent. Once the floodgates open, look for Scott Rolen to be dealt to Houston as the Astros look to bolster an underachieving lineup. In return, Houston could send minor leaguers J.R. Towles and Brian Bogusevic to Toronto. The only issue that Houston may have here is they don't have the depth of talent in their farm system that some other potential Rolen suitors do, particularly the Milwaukee Brewers should they decide they need a bat.

The hard-hitting Adam Lind also will likely be out the door and could wind up in Detroit in a deal involving the nearly career-dead Dontrelle Willis and a couple of solid infield prospects like corner infielder Jeff Larish and the slick-fielding Brent Dlugach.

Finally, lefty reliever Scott Downs will also be sent packing to a contender looking for bullpen help. I expect the Marlins make a play for his services in an attempt to remain relevant in the NL East and wild card races, but watch for the Colorado Rockies to make a play as well as they are desperate for middle relief help as they cling to slim playoff hopes in the NL wild card race themselves. Downs will be a cheap get and probably will go to the first serious bidder for pennies on the dollar.

7. Adam Dunn could be in St. Louis or Washington, but no place else.

Many will implore you to believe that Dunn is destined to be moved; my gut feeling is Washington won't be shopping him nearly as aggressively as one would think, but would listen to callers. The Cards may be looking for a power bat, particularly from the left side, and with the recent acquisition of SS Julio Lugo, the team can afford to trade a middle infielder in addition to a marginal pitching prospect and a major leaguer like Rick Ankiel whom the Nats could plug into the lineup instantly. If the Cardinals don't go after the slugger, expect him to remain in purgatory — er, I mean Washington.

8. The Royals will ... wait for it ... stand pat.

Annually, the Kansas City Royals deal their top player as the trade deadline nears, or at least entertain offers. In 2009, expect Royals management to go out of character and keep their primary pieces in place. While Jose Guillen (far from a primary piece) may get dealt for a stick of gum and a Ken Griffey, Jr. rookie card, promising contributors like Alex Gordon, Mark Teahan, Alberto Callaspo, and Brett Butler can settle in ... at least for this season. In fact, in a sure sign of the apocalypse, the Royals actually traded for a player as the deadline approaches in moving two minor leaguers for Mariners SS Yunieski Betancourt. I don't know about you, but I'm watching for locusts.

9. Brandon Phillips, Jermaine Dye, Aubrey Huff, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez will not be dealt.

Five of the most mentioned players in any trade discussion around the Reds, White Sox, O's, and Indians will find themselves exactly where they are now once August arrives — on losing teams.

10. Bronson Arroyo, Scott Podsednik, Brian Roberts, Kerry Wood, and Kelly Shoppach will be dealt.

The five players off those same four teams more likely to be moved haven't appeared on too many folks' radar screens. With St. Louis (Arroyo), Colorado (Wood), Chicago (Roberts), Boston (Shoppach), Tampa (Arroyo, Wood, Podsednick), and the Mets (Roberts, Wood) skulking about searching for help, expect calls to made and offers to be discussed late into the nights leading up to the deadline.

Here's to an active trading season! Though many a trade deadline has passed with little if any action of note, there does seem to be some movement afoot in 2009 that bears watching. Still, even the couple of blockbuster scenarios mentioned above are less than 50/50 propositions, so I wouldn't go canceling any plans for the 30th that may interfere with 10 hours of uninterrupted televised trade deadline coverage on the MLB Network.

Just don't tell the boys at "Baseball Tonight."