Thursday, June 11, 2009
MLB All-Star Voting Picks: AL
There are times when democracy is about as effective as the Devil Rays' bullpen. Everyone gets a vote, from the most knowledgeable insightful expert on a topic to the narrowest pinhead who puts as much thought and wisdom into his vote as a chimp deciding which direction to hurl his feces.
As far as all-star games go, in the big picture, the result falls short of world-altering. That's good, because despite the fact that in sports we actually have objective evidence of the most deserving candidate available in seconds at the click of a mouse, voters are generally just as vulnerable to local biases, preconceived notions, and media-exposure inequities.
As usual, players currently slated for staring roles have resumes of the type that summon AAA demotions than election to the 2009 All-Star Fame. One former MVP sports a .222 average. The legitimate story of the year last season has missed 21 games and counting, will be out past the All-Star Break anyway, and by the way he had been hitting .240 with an OBP under .300.
However, the Internet seems to be helping on some levels. Those two players are really the only ones that are egregiously bad selections (albeit they are Nationals-bad selections). Meanwhile, only a few truly deserving first half stars aren't going to get their due. And for an MLB All-Star Game, that's pretty reasonable. But improvements can be made. So if you care about all-star voting and haven't yet used your 25 MLB.com votes go fix the glitches in the system, this year is not beyond saving.
(Side note: Twenty-five votes? Kinda overkill, huh? Anyone else think this caters to the relentless homer fans wasting valuable economic time at work trying like the devil to get Jason Varitek to St. Louis?)
Catcher
Frontrunner: Joe Mauer
Merits: The astute reader might note that Mauer missed roughly the 21 games mentioned in the lead. But that's where similarities between he and '09 Josh Hamilton end. Mauer, unlike Hamilton, has hit the cover off the ball like even he never has, and now healthy, he will play a vast majority of the first half come July 14. Even in limited time, a .410 average and .497 OBP is scary. Of course, if he wasn't enough of a nightmare for pitchers as a pure contact hitter, he seems to have developed a power stroke, which would be kind of like Greg Maddux developing a 95 mph fastball or Tony Gwynn trying a diet, workout program, and some HGH. Just not fair.
Verdict: Mauer. He's produced 12 homers (already leads AL catchers and is one off his career-high), 33 runs, and 35 RBI (second). He's out-producing everyone while playing in just 35 games.
By the way, Victor Martinez (the only one with more runs and RBI) should and will be the reserve, and at .344/.412/10/41, he must be wondering what he has to do in order to climb higher than fourth. So am I. And I'm looking at you, Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamacchia voters. (I kind of understand Varitek: he at least has 10 HR with his .247 average. And Bostonians vote homer like they're facing a runoff between their guy and Hitler. But Salty over V-Mart? Seriously?)
Another by-the-way: Jason Varitek has given up 46 steals, the most in baseball, while nabbing just 11. And a less relevant factoid about catchers handling staffs: New York Yankees staff ERA with Jorge Posada catching: 6.55, highest in baseball among catchers with more than one inning. With Jose Molina catching? 3.66, third best among catchers with at least 95 innings caught. That gap is pretty remarkable.
First Base
Frontrunner: Kevin Youkilis
Merits: Hard to argue he's not deserving of a spot. Despite the Boston Bump, this is one of the most complete and frustrating hitters to face in baseball. Only Mauer (and his currently non-qualifying at-bats) has a better OBP than his .470 clip. Oh, and he can hit for a bit of power, slugging .631. But it depends on how much you value the Moneyball stats: he's not even in the top four among first-basemen in the AL alone in runs (33), homers (9), or RBI (35). Meanwhile, Mark Teixeira is putting up an MVP-type line across the board (.286/.389/18/51, the latter two lead AL 1B). Check that, Justin Morneau has one more RBI, just three fewer homers, and better averages (.332/.411). So we have a new top-challenger.
Verdict: Youkilis. His OBP is 59 points higher. That's not a tiny gap. And while some will go look at homers, his slugging percentage is not just close to his challengers. It's actually 10 points higher than Tex's and eight points north of Morneau. Fans, stay the course.
Second Base
Frontrunner: Ian Kinsler
Merits: Leads AL second-basemen in homers, RBI, steals, OPS, and leading a traditionally dormant franchise to first place in the AL West despite being without their expected offensive leader.
Verdict: Kinsler. It's clear-cut. Aaron Hill has had a fantastic start, and aside from steals, is Kinsler Lite, just a shade off the robust numbers. Dustin Pedroia is having another nice season, but not near his MVP numbers, especially with just two HR. Props to the fans for avoiding the Boston/bigger name trap.
Shortstop
Frontrunner: Derek Jeter
Merits: Jeter is rebounding nicely from what for him was a disappointing 2008. His .306/.379 with 8 homers, 35 runs, and 11 steals might have made him worthy. Might have, that is, if Jason Bartlett hadn't quietly become Nomar Garciaparra circa the late 1990s. He's hitting .373. His OPS is 160 points higher than the next best SS. He has swiped 14 bags, but then again, pitchers find it easy these days to overlook any Rays baserunner not named Carl Crawford. And he's hit seven homers after hitting just one last year. By the way, last year, he still finished 18th in MVP voting.
Verdict: Bartlett. It's obvious, even with him currently on a short DL sint with a sprained ankle. But being in the media black hole that is Tampa Bay, Bartlett might have to put up a few more good seasons anyone notices a star being born.
Third Base
Frontrunner: Evan Longoria
Merits: Or Bartlett could learn from his teammate, a prodigious power-hitting talent, whose reputation has managed to escape the Verizon-sponsored media attention-dead zone in central Florida. Can you hear him now? He leads AL 3B in homers (13), RBI (55), OBP (.390), slugging (.602), and nearly as commanding a lead in OPS over his colleagues (at .992, the gap stands at 91 points).
Verdict: Longoria. A-Rod's injury and a weak crop at his position leave him with the biggest vote lead in the AL. Rightfully so, even in what for him has been kind of a ho-hum start from a guy that is going to win MVPs in his career.
Outfield
Frontrunners: Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, and Josh Hamilton
Merits: Bay is having a tremendous year and the fans in Boston have happily forgotten Manny Ramirez, all while sticking fingers in their ears and yelling "LA-LA-LA-LA" whenever a steroid story references his days with the Sox. It's like they sold Enron stock at the earliest sign of trouble, but just before it tanked from its absurd heights, and Bay is the windfall. He leads AL outfielders in OPS and RBI (by 12, by the way) and trails only Nelson Cruz with 16 homers (Cruz has 17). Quality pick, fans.
This is, however, where the compliments end. Japan has been heard yet again, and Ichiro is winning yet another election stacked like he was running for the Governor's seat in Illinois. He is leading the AL in batting at .356. But he's also just fourth in OBP, and his 9 steals leave him in 18th among OF. Two of his three hallmark stats don't set him apart, and obviously slugging, RBI, and homers are already holding him back. And we won't even go into Josh Hamilton. He's ahead of Ichiro in the voting despite an injury-riddled struggle of a first half that would make Chipper Jones cringe. Hey, his 2008 was the pride of baseball, not to mention my keeper fantasy team. But lets just say he's one of many reason my '09 entry is currently in the cellar and not the reason for the Rangers' success. Get right soon, Josh (not just for my team of course), and wake up, voters.
Need alternatives? How about Bay's teammate, Nelson Cruz, who is not too far behind Bay in OPS and has stolen as many bases as Ichiro while helping Kinsler cover for Hamilton's ineffectiveness/loss. Adam Jones has been a monster in Baltimore, hitting .346 with an OPS almost identical to Bay's. And Torri Hunter is quietly having a huge year, as well, mirroring Jones' stats, only with more steals (11-5) and RBI (43-36, but come on, Jones is in Baltimore), but 32 points off the average (no shame). Oh, and Carl Crawford is on pace to steal 100 bases, which hasn't been done since Vince Coleman in 1987. And he's hitting .326, which Coleman couldn't do if pitchers actually tried to help him.
Verdict: Bay, Cruz, Jones are the guys I'd choose for my lineup, with a caveat. I consider it too close to call, and Crawford and Hunter are currently ahead of the other two. So I won't begrudge you a bit if you go with them. Whether you believe they're better or just don't want to vote for Nader or Perot. All five should be there in the end. Hamilton and Ichiro should be giving concession speeches. Oh, and stop voting for Ken Griffey, Jr. I know times are tough for sports fans in Seattle, but for the love of Jay Buhner, he's in fourth place while hitting below .220 with no power from the DH slot. Come on.
Projected Starters
Check here for the National League's projected starters. Below is the current roster of leading vote-getters. (My selection for his replacement in parenthesis.)
C Joe Mauer
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Derek Jeter (Jason Bartlett)
3B Evan Longoria
OF Jason Bay
OF Josh Hamilton (Nelson Cruz)
OF Ichiro Suzuki (Adam Jones)
Check back tomorrow for Kyle Jahner's NL all-star picks!