The New Brian Westbrook: Steven Jackson

Every year, fantasy football drafters make their assessments and draft decisions based primarily on the previous year's performance. They may grade up if there's been a major personnel move, or grade down if there's some sort of age or injury concern. But, by and large, you take the stats leaders from the year prior and project forward.

One way to go beyond the crowd is to assess the coaching changes, either the head coach if he has an offensive background, or the offensive coordinator if the head coach is a defensive guy.

This year, there are nine offensive coordinators new to their roles: Pete Carmichael, Jr in New Orleans, Clyde Christensen in Indianapolis, Brian Daboll in Cleveland, Jeff Jagodzinski in Tampa Bay, Greg Knapp in Seattle, Scott Linehan in Minnesota, Mike McCoy in Denver, Jimmy Raye in San Francisco, and Pat Shurmur in St. Louis.

Between now the opening of training camps, we'll be looking at some of the players whose fantasy stock has risen the most as a result of coaching changes since the end of last year.

We start with Steven Jackson of the St. Louis Rams.

As a first-time offensive coordinator, Shurmur doesn't have a history of play-calling on his own, so we have to look at what he learned servicing under Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg in Philadelphia.

And the lesson says watch out for Jackson.

For an indication of how Jackson might be used, here are the past three years for Philadelphia's lead back, Brian Westbrook:

2006: 240 rush attempts for 1,217 yards (5.1 average); 77 receptions for 699 yards (9.1 average); 11 total TD (7 rush, 4 catch)

2007: 278 rush attempts for 1,333 yards (4.8 average); 90 receptions for 771 yards (8.6 average); 12 total TD (7 rush, 5 catch)

2008: 233 rush attempts for 936 yards (4.0 average); 54 receptions for 402 yards (7.4 average); 14 total touchdowns (9 rush, 5 catch)

Now the averages have certainly dipped year-over-year-over-year, especially in 2009, but something to realize is that Westbrook has always been an over-achiever in regards to his size. He had 685 rush attempts and receptions combined in 2006 and 2007, so it's no real wonder that he would slow down in 2008 (though 1338 total yards and 14 total TD is still an extremely respectable total).

But look at the size differential between Westbrook and Jackson:

Westbrook: 5-foot-10, 203 lbs.

Jackson: 6-foot-2, 235 lbs.

Also consider the fact Jackson doesn't turn 26 until July 22, whereas Westbrook will be 30 before this season kicks off.

How many times have the Eagles wished they had a bigger, stronger version of Westbrook?

Well, now plug Jackson in Westbrook's place in the Eagles offense, and that's exactly what you have.

Now the counter-argument looks something like this:

1. The Eagles have a way better offensive line. Until the Rams get real about the offensive line, there's no point in even trying to compare Jackson to Westbrook.

2. The Rams receiving corps is the worst in the league. Unless you sign somebody who can stretch the defense and force the defense away from stacking the box, there's no point in even trying to compare Jackson to Westbrook.

3. Donovan McNabb is a way better quarterback than Marc Bulger. Until you have a legitimate quarterback, there's no point in even trying to compare Jackson to Westbrook.

4. You're stupid.

Let's take them one by one (except for "you're stupid" — there's no point arguing that one).

The Offensive Line

Do the Eagles have a better offensive line? Absolutely. But the Rams are going to be much better this year with the addition of tackle Jason Smith, the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and center Jason Brown, signed from Baltimore in free agency for $37.5 million over five years. Add Brown's deal with the deal Smith will eventually sign (using last year's $58 million deal by Jake Long as a barometer), and that's about a $95 million infusion of talent on the offensive line.

The real key here is Brown. I know the pay scales and draft positions would tell you the tackles are the most important players on the offensive line, but if the center is getting pushed back into the pocket, the whole offense is stuck. Just like on an old Civil War battlefield, there's no point having strong flanks if you're getting through the middle of your lines. But if the center can get push on the heart of the defensive line, it opens up the whole offensive attack, especially the run game.

The Wide Receivers

With the exception of the one year of not-a-jerk Terrell Owens, the Eagles have never boasted a top WR corps in the Reid era. Since 1999, no wide receiver has topped 77 catches (T.O. in 2004, Kevin Curtis in 2007 — the only two WRs to top 1000 receiving yards). The best of the rest from a WR perspective are guys like Torrance Small, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, and 2008 rookie DeSean Jackson.

Are the Rams receivers on par with the Patriots or Colts? No. But it's not some great stretch of the imagination to think Donnie Avery and the Rams WRs can live up to the legacy of Thrash and Pinkston.

The Quarterback

It was only as far back as 2006 that Bulger completed 63 percent of his passes for 4300 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. But with the beating he's taken over the past two years (75 sacks and untold hits beyond that), it's legitimate to wonder whether the now-32-year-old can regain the form that made him a Pro Bowler in 2003 and 2006.

The good thing for Jackson (remember that's who we're talking about here) is that Bulger is an extremely intelligent quarterback who is savvy enough to take the dump-off or short swing pass to avoid a negative play. There's a reason why Westbrook has 355 receptions over the past five years. It's because the quarterback always has a short option if something long doesn't develop.

Of course the elephant in the room is whether Jackson can stay healthy for long enough to take advantage of all the positive circumstances around him. Since coming into the league in 2004, Jackson has only played a full 16 once, his Pro Bowl year of 2006. Over the past two years, he's missed four games each season (though he's still gone over 1000 yards in each).

Will he be able to stay on the field for 300-plus carries this year?

Nobody knows.

But that goes for every other running back on your draft board, too.

So keep it your mind when you're stacking your draft board. Fantasy championships aren't won with high picks. They're won with value–getting more than you paid for.

And if you by chance see Jackson on the board in the second round, know you're getting yourself one hell of a value.