The NBA Finals is like the summer blockbuster movie of the sports world. Like its movie counterparts, the Finals almost always feature some of the biggest stars on the planet (in this case, Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard). The production costs are always high (those giant Larry O'Brien trophy stickers on the floor can't be cheap), and the pomp and circumstance will be through the roof.
In light of Game 1 and 2 being played in the heart of Tinseltown, I thought it'd be a good idea to recast some of Hollywood's biggest summer blockbusters using key players from the NBA finals as the lead to do my annual NBA Finals Preview.
Let's start changing the names on the marquee right now, it's time for the NBA's biggest summer blockbusters...
"Terminator Salvation" starring Kobe Bryant
For as far as recent memory goes back, Kobe has widely been regarded as the best closer in the game. You could even argue that he's like a machine in the fourth quarter (and since I'm making a Terminator reference, that's exactly what I'll do). But Bryant has been merely human in his last two trips to the NBA Finals, losing eight of his last 11 NBA Finals games.
This series could be Kobe's last chance to salvage his reputation as one of the great players in NBA history. Winning three NBA titles before the age of 24, Bryant's career got off to fantastic start. But now, having failed in his last two trips to the NBA Finals, once with Shaq and once without, Kobe may now be looking at his final chance to win an NBA title while being the best player on a championship team. Even for players as great as Kobe, opportunities like this don't come around very often.
Bryant let a golden opportunity slip away last season. The championship window is slowly closing as the 100+ game seasons rack up for Kobe. He's already one of the all-time greats. But to even sniff the conversation of greatest ever, he'd better start winning on his own, and he'd better start now.
"Angels and Demons" starring Lamar Odom
Laker fans never know which Lamar Odom is going to show up. But the Candy Man is certainly the x-factor in this series. If "Angel" L.O. shows up, as he did in Games 5 and 6 of the Western Conference Finals, the Lakers are virtually unbeatable. His size and versatility causes matchup nightmares for opposing teams.
And regardless of what his stats may indicate, Odom is hands down one of the top five rebounders in the NBA. If a combination of L.O. and either Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol can neutralize Dwight Howard on the glass, especially on the offensive glass, it could be an early exit for the Magic. "Angel" L.O. is that good.
But if "Demon" L.O. decides to grace us with his presence, all bets are off. Odom is averaging 13.4 points per game this postseason in Laker wins, and 9.1 points in losses. Orlando may be focusing most of their defensive attention on Kobe, and rightfully so, but if they can find a way to take Lamar Odom out of the game, it could be the Lakers that find themselves desperately trying to crack the code of the Orlando Magic.
"Up" starring Dwight Howard
Howard gets the nod in this one, because if the Orlando Magic win this series, that's exactly where Dwight Howard's ceiling goes: up.
He's already considered a freak of nature, one of the best centers in the game, a menacing inside player both offensively and defensively, and a guaranteed double-double every night. And he's only 23-years-old.
If Superman can add an NBA title to his already impressive resume, the sky's the limit for Howard. With still another decade of dominance ahead of him, a title this early in his career could have Howard ahead of the curve set by the long list of great centers that have played before him.
"Taking of Pelham 123" starring Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, and Mickael Pietrus
Those four players have combined to take 337 three-pointers in the playoffs. The entire Laker team has attempted 338. Needless to say, the taking of threes will be in the Magic's game plan heading into the NBA Finals.
The Magic are taking over 23 three-point fields goals per game in the playoffs, connecting on just under 37% of those tries. When Orlando shoots over 40% from three-point range in the postseason, they are 7-2. When they don't, they're just 5-5.
Orlando is capable of getting red-hot from behind the arc. The numbers don't lie: when they get hot, the Magic are tough to beat. However, nobody's been better at defending the three-point line than the Lakers this postseason, with opponents shooting just 31% from deep against L.A. Dwight Howard can complain all he wants about touches, but this series will be decided on the perimeter.
"The Hangover" starring Jameer Nelson
Rumor has it that Jameer Nelson will return from what was originally thought to be a season-ending shoulder injury that he suffered in February to play against the Lakers in the NBA Finals. While it may seem advantageous on paper to have your second best player return just in time for the most important series of the season, Nelson's return only adds uncertainty to the Orlando Magic.
How many minutes will he play? Will he be 100%? How will Rafer Alston play knowing he's not guaranteed the bulk of the starting point guard minutes? Will the offense change when Nelson is on the floor?
Even if Nelson is physically at 100%, there is no way his timing will be near where it needs to be for him to be successful. The NBA Finals is not a time for a player to play himself back into game shape.
Orlando system isn't broke, so there's no need to fix it by rushing Nelson back to play in the NBA Finals.
"Year One" starring Courtney Lee
As in, a player in year one of his career, aka a rookie, will be getting the assignment to start the NBA Finals on Kobe Bryant. This might be the most underrated storyline of the entire Finals. For all the time and effort that the Magic have surely spent over the past few days game planning on how to stop Kobe Bryant, all is lost if Lee freezes under the bright lights trying to guard the most ruthless scorer in the NBA.
This time last year, Courtney Lee was nothing more than a Hilltopper trying to work his way into the first round of the NBA draft. Now, he's asked to start the NBA Finals guarding Kobe Bryant. That sounds like the recipe for a 15-point first quarter in Game 1 for Kobe to me.
"The 'A' Team" starring the NBA referees
The NBA sends only its top officials to NBA Finals games. I've said many times before that blaming the officials for the outcome of an NBA game is just an excuse that people that don't know anything about basketball make when their team loses. Yes, NBA officials make bad calls from time to time, but human error in officiating is a part of sports. It's no different than the NFL and its confusing pass interference and holding rules, or the MLB and its fluctuating strike zone depending on which umpire is behind the plate for that particular game. More often than not NBA officials get the calls right, so let's just all move past the inevitable "that could have gone either way" calls that we'll see this series and focus, for once, on the basketball that's being played.
(Note: I'm rescinding the previous paragraph and writing a scathing column about NBA officials if either Kobe Bryant or Dwight Howard picks up a seventh technical foul in this series and gets suspended for a critical game late in the series. This rule is so dumb that I have faith in David Stern that he will realize this in the event that someone actually reaches a seventh technical foul and not suspend him for an NBA Finals game. I've always been a big David Stern supporter, but if he lets me down and allows a superstar to be suspended, I will turn on him fatser than Harvey Dent turned on Gotham City. How's that for a summer blockbuster reference?)
And that brings us to our final summer blockbuster of the preview...
"Land of the Lost" starring the Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic are a great basketball team, and they've found a way to click at just the right time this postseason. Unfortunately, they just have too many factors working against them in this series for me to pick them to win the title.
The Lakers have home-court advantage. The Lakers have the experience. The Lakers have a Hall of Fame coach that's won nine NBA titles. The Lakers have the best player in this series. Because of those reasons, and a gut feeling that says that Kobe is poised to have a monster series, I just can't pick against them.
L.A. in six.
Visit Sports Central each day after every NBA Finals game to read Scott Shepherd's immediate reaction to the game. You can also follow Scott before, during, and after every NBA Finals game on Twitter at twitter.com/scottosports.
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