Federer About to Be the Greatest Ever?

I never thought I would find myself saying this, but an Englishman has a very good chance of winning the French Open. Seventy-four years after the last Brit, the great Fred Perry, took the title here in Paris, Andy Murray stands just three matches from holding the trophy at Roland Garros.

A week ago, this was nearly impossible. Murray, seeded third here and riding a number three ranking on the ATP men's tour, was in the top half of the draw. That meant that in order to get to the final, he had to go through the reigning king of the French, and the reigning king of men's tennis, Rafael Nadal. Nadal had been unbeatable on clay again this year, and in the first week, set the record for most consecutive matches won at the French Open with 31. This dates back to 2005. Nadal has never lost on the red clay. With the new pink shirt, a slightly more invincible look, Nadal loomed large like a t-rex waiting for Murray.

Then the unthinkable happened. Robin Soderling dispatched of Rafa in the fourth round. Soderling managed to have the most significant win for a Swedish player here since Mats Wilander took the title in 1985. Soderling played well to get to Nadal, but not nearly as well as needed to beat the mighty Rafa. They had played in the quarterfinals in Rome just about a week earlier, with Rafa whipping him 6-1, 6-0. Based on that, I'd have given Soderling zero chance of pulling off the upset he did.

But in looking at the event statistics at Roland Garros, it suddenly comes much clearer. While Soderling sits in the top 20 in the tournament in aces, break points won, and second serve return winners, Nadal only makes the top 20 in break points won. And Nadal doesn't even appear in the list of top break point conversions. Soderling is in the top 20 in first serve points won, Nadal isn't. Rafa's coach, Toni Nadal, has said throughout the tournament that Nadal was playing too passively. Whatever the reason, Soderling became the first man ever to beat Rafa at the French Open. A mighty win for the Swede.

Which takes us back to Andy Murray. While known more as a stroker then his previous English counterparts, Murray does not fit the stereotype of a clay monster. Yet he has run through to the quarterfinals, barely being tested. Unlike Roger Federer, he has not had any match go more than four sets, and that only once. Murray is rested and seems bound to get to the final.

Roger Federer now looks like the favorite to take the title, but he will have to get past Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro is currently riding high as both the five seed and No. 5 in the world. He is the other clay monster sitting out there. It will most likely take Roger all his strength and some luck to get to the final. The semis for Murray will be either Nicholay Davydenko or yes, Mr. Soderling. Soderling is good, but doesn't have enough here in my estimation. So Murray gets a shot at the title, seventy-four years after the last great Brit conquered French soil in 1935.

I'll be rooting for him. Either way, this French Open will be one of great stories. Either a Brit takes the French Open for the first time since before WWII, or Roger Federer completes a career Grand Slam, sets the stage to become the all-time men's grand slam title holder, and caps off the year for himself by not only marrying Mirka Vavrinec and having his first child, but by establishing once and for all that he is the greatest men's tennis player ever to walk the face of the earth. Not too bad for a man who is supposed to be on his way out.