Fact vs. Fiction: MLB at the Quarter Pole

While it may be cliché to note, the MLB season is far more marathon than it is sprint. Ultimate success or failure is measured not by short-term excellence, but rather by sustained consistency and the all-important ability to not get too high or too low for any particular stretch of games. In short, as they say, championships cannot be won or lost in April.

Still, as we blow by the quarter-pole marker of the season, it is always an interesting exercise to take a look at the trends and happenings of those first 40-plus games, if for nothing else than to get an idea of what it is exactly that we don't know that we thought we might have coming into the season.

It is in the spirit of this all-too-early over-assessment that I give you a smattering of the surprising and not-so-surprising of MLB 2009 framed by what these early returns may portend for the balance of the season.

Premature Eradication

All too often, we as baseball fans are far too anxious to write-off particular teams, players or managers as underachievers. There are some teams that, to the delight of many, annually fall into this category come mid-May (Yankee-haters, you are guilty as charged). As relatively commonplace as these improbable in-season turnarounds have become, we, as fans, still sit amazed as they unfold. This is a direct result of our propensity to read far too much into trends or prolonged periods of slump and to consciously ignore what sound reason would otherwise see (I find myself wanting to name this syndrome "Cub Fan-itis" or "Mid-'80s BoSox Fever," but will resist the urge).

For the 2009 version of those things that we-are-seeing-now-but-should-expect-to-turn-around-at-some-point-soon, I submit the following:

New York Yankees — As alluded to earlier, no list of early season disappointments is complete without including the $200-million plus payroll of the New York Yankees in seasons where they find themselves anywhere outside of the top two spots within the American League East. This is one of those seasons.

Currently riding a six-game win streak, I think it is quite the safe bet to say that anyone who has already written off the Yanks for 2009 should strongly rethink their position and not try to become gainfully employed in any field which requires futures prospecting. With a few key injuries impacting their early season consistency (notably A-'Roid ... I mean A-Rod), a healthy New York squad is a safe bet for the playoffs once all the games are played, even if their overall pitching depth is lacking.

Arizona Diamondbacks — Chosen by many pundits as the "sleeper" pick in the National League, the early season returns on the D-Backs are shockingly unfavorable. Already over 10 games out of first place, Arizona is going to need to turn things around relatively quickly if they want to find themselves in contention come July (when Manny returns from his suspension to the division-leading Dodgers).

The bad news for the D-Backs is that they have won only nine of their 24 home games and the next 40 games see them spending a majority of their time on the road. There is some good news, though. Their pitching has been predictably decent, even with the injury to staff ace Brandon Webb. As youngsters Max Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit settle into their roles and with Webb's expected return to health, this trend should continue. Add to that the absolutely putrid play of a talented quintet (Stephen Drew, Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young are all batting .214 or below), and the formula is right for a quick turnaround once the bats right themselves, which they will do.

That leaves timing as the only variable of immediate concern for Arizona; if they don't get the ship righted sooner rather than later, they'll be too far out to contend for the division and may be chasing too many teams for the wild card. I fully anticipate the bats to heat up with that early Phoenix summer and would be shocked to see 'Zona anywhere other than third in their division once the All Star Break arrives.

Cecil Cooper, Houston Astros Manager — Poor Cecil was hearing about the threats to his job as early as spring training. Thankfully, ownership in Houston seems to realize that Houston is always a slow-starter and, more importantly, Cooper was dealt only four cards in a game of five-card stud.

Expect 2009 to be a "mulligan" for Cooper, barring a complete collapse that nets fewer than 70 wins (highly unlikely considering the number of weary but proud vets on the team). Let me put it this way: you wouldn't fire your special education teacher simply because half of his class did poorly in school after his first full year on the job, would you? Think of Cooper as that teacher and his Astros squad that class.

Minnesota Twins Trading Their Roster — As contenders begin their annual mating dance with also-rans in search of key trade options, you have to think at this point that the Twins are looking like that slutty cheerleader with the big, um, assets. Currently two games under .500, Minnesota features a roster that is chalk full talent and has shown a tendency to leverage those subpar seasons as key components in their talent-restocking system. Names like Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Crede, and Joe Nathan would be excellent additions to any team in the mix for playoff positioning and there is little doubt that that the phones in the Twin Cities will be ringing off the hook should the team continue its recent slide.

But not so fast. While it is exceedingly likely that the team will remain just about where they find themselves now — not quite good enough to lead the division, but not nearly bad enough to be woefully out of contention — this is by no means an invitation to unload proven players that would damage a fan base becoming accustomed to caring about baseball well into August and early September. Expect Cuddyer and his $7.6 million salary to be sent packing, but that would be a financially sound move rather than a desperate maneuver.

Tampa Bay Rays — Everyone loved the story of the Rays in 2008 and frankly, who wouldn't? This was a bunch of young "who deys" knocking off the mighty Red Sox and Yankees with a miniscule payroll and a relative unknown managing the team. This success buoyed the team through the offseason and the Rays entered '09 as a prohibitive favorite to contend if not win it all this season. Unfortunately, some early season struggles and an upshot team north of the border have buried the Rays in fourth place within their own division, nearly seven games out of first place already with both the Sox and Yanks underperforming a bit to date.

A thorough review of the stats, however, paints a much less murky picture. The Rays have outscored their opponents by more than 15 runs, typically one of those more telling stats in terms of measuring success over the duration of the long season. Tampa is playing .600 baseball against Boston and New York and has yet to face Toronto, which shows that perhaps the early season disappointment is more a result of lack of focus than lack of talent, a common issue for young teams. Expect the Rays to hit their stride around June, at which point they are likely to move way up the standings and should be in very good shape by the All-Star Break, which will be music to the ears of every baseball fan this side of the Hudson River.

Big Papi and Derrek Lee — Papi has sucked eggs through the season's first two months. He may well continue to suck eggs into June. But he will turn it around. The man is a professional hitter, but he also has the emotional tensile strength of tissue paper. He needs some tough love, as they say, and has been overly coddled through the season's early weeks by a management team cautiously trying not to flip a boat they started rocking last season with the trade of Manny, who played Tonto to Papi's Lone Ranger act. His recent three-game benching is a step in the right direction, and once David Ortiz turns his pathetic humiliated embarrassment into outright anger, opposing baseballs will be paying the price as his bat inflicts the damage.

As for D-Lee, the signs are all there for a turnaround in the Windy City for the talented but streaky first baseman. The stories of his fall from glory have been a bit shocking. Yes, he is slumping mightily and looks overmatched when pitchers hammer the outer portion of the strike zone with any manner of consistency, but this is not indicative of a player ready to cash in his chips on his career. It's just Derrek friggin' Lee! The name is not Albert Pujols, people; Lee has been maddeningly inconsistent throughout his career. Remember when he was "flirting" with .400 a few seasons back? He wound up batting .125 or something ridiculous like that down the stretch and finished in the low .330s. He's a career .290-ish hitter and will be there again in '09.

Both will come around, just give them some time.

Tag 'Em and Bag 'Em

For every uplifting story of personal or team turnarounds, there are just as many early season struggles that actually are exactly what they appear to be. If this category were a Jeopardy! answer, it would read: "The Pittsburgh Pirates, Kyle Farnsworth, and Brad Ausmus's slugging percentage." The correct question? "What are things that start slowly, get worse through the summer, and slump in September?"

Of all that we've seen to date in 2009, the items below represent those things that I may just bet some greenbacks on as soon as is practical, before the odds are shifted further in favor of the bookies. I, of course, meant to write "legal gambling institutions" in place of "bookies" in that previous sentence.

Chicago White Sox — What's worse than an underperforming team? An underperforming old team that lacks a rational manager and plays bad defense. That's what the White Sox have become. Their infield is an error waiting to happen defensively — poor range, marginal arms, unreliable first basemen, and no consistency to speak of. Their outfield doesn't make a lot of errors, but that's because they don't get to very many balls. (By the way, does anyone else worry that Carlos Quentin's biceps might explode at any time, like that guy in that Discovery Channel documentary that used to shoot steroids into the abscesses that he got from too much steroid use? How has this guy not flunked a drug test? I digress).

Their two best middle relievers are 32- and 35-years-old and between them, have logged so many innings over the past five seasons that fans are starting to think they are a seventh-inning entertainment act (think Milwaukee's sausage races). Oh, and did I mention that only the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres have been outscored by more runs this season?

I fully expect Ozzie Guillen to come unglued by mid-June and publicly demand that his team should be forced to play in skirts and black face, simply because he hadn't had an opportunity to offend or slander women and African-Americans in awhile. This outburst will of course be followed by a pseudo-apology during which he explains "I am not sexist or racist ... I believe everyone should own a woman or a black man." Needless to say, Guillen will be fired, and his team dismantled.

Matt Holliday — I'll admit, this may not be entirely fair to Holliday, as I don't expect him to bat in the low .260s and slug at or around .400 all season long. But if you are thinking .330-30 homers-100 RBI, you're crazy. Don't believe me? Ask any 20-something how good Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla were. Then ask that very same question to a 30-something. The difference? Those 30-somethings watched the pair play in Colorado.

Kerry Wood — As a long-suffering and loyal Cub fan, it pains me to write this, but Kerry Wood is just not very good anymore. You saw the signs last season in Chicago; his fastball was slower and straighter, nobody swung at his slider anymore, and the only games he was dominant in were those in which he featured a curve ball that he could control, which amounted to about 10 games total. His grittiness and longevity in the face of incredibly bad luck and gross misuse early in his career are remarkable, but you have to think that his career is very near its end and I'd be shocked to see him as Cleveland's closer once July rolls around.

Florida Marlins — If you watch any baseball show on any channel, you've heard the following sentence: "Even though the Marlins are fading a bit, don't sleep on them. This Florida team is for real. They are young, they can pitch, their hitters are underrated, and they are a very well managed team." These, my friends, are the words of baseball analysts everywhere that want to claim that they found 2009's version of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Unfortunately, the tapes of those sound bites will be unceremoniously destroyed at the behest of the speakers after the reality sinks in that yes, this is still that Marlins team. They are a team that features some great, great young talent, but you cannot win in this league with any consistency with Emilio Bonaficio as your starting third baseman and Dan Uggla wearing a glove on his left hand. Or is that an oven mitt? For Heaven's sake, Kiko Calero is their set-up man! This team is slightly above average, but will not be anywhere near the division lead once the Mets and Phillies hit their stride.

"The Sky is the Limit; Unfortunately, I Think We Just Bumped Our Heads"

As the witty title to this section would imply, there are a bunch of trends that are being seen now that just don't pass the stink test. As in every baseball season, there are some teams that start hot and fade and some players that look like they've finally put it all together only to plummet back toward mediocrity once the league settles into its routine.

The items below are the most likely candidates for showing precipitous drop-offs in their current standing over the coming weeks and months.

Toronto Blue Jays — It just can't happen. No way, no how. This team has scored 60 more runs than its opponents to date ... 6-0! This is a very impressive stat, and one that should not be completely disregarded, but the one stat that truly matters to me here is 1-2. This is Toronto's current record combined against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. That's right, they've played only three games — all against the Yanks — against those teams most sane people believed would dominate the division in '09. While the Blue Jays have feasted on the likes of Cleveland, Baltimore, and the White Sox in the early season, you certainly can't expect this trend to maintain once they face off with their elite in-division rivals.

I'm not anti-Canadian, nor am I necessarily opposed to the Jays making a serious run at a division title, but I am, above all else, a realist, and Toronto has too many question marks to be in this position over the long-haul.

Victor Martinez and Christian Guzman — Okay, let's just get it out of the way. If you ever own a player in a fantasy league who has sustained a batting average over .100 points higher than his career average over any two-month period, you are obligated to trade that player to the highest bidder as soon as possible. That is what we call "selling high" and the value of Martinez and Guzman will never, ever get any higher than it is right now.

In the case of Martinez, he is a great hitter, but he is batting nearly .420 against left-handed pitchers this season with a slugging average in the .700s. For his career, his bats about .297 against southpaws and slugs around .440. Expect his numbers to level out once he faces more left-handed pitching as the season progresses (48 at-bats so far this season). As for Guzman, I realize he batted a career best (for a full season) .316 in '08 and was hitting at a .328 clip in an injury-shortened 2007, but he batted .219 in '05 and anyone with a number that low on his career stat sheet will never be given the benefit of the doubt by me.

Adrian Gonzalez — The San Diego first baseman is on a home run tear, or was up until this past weekend. With six long balls over a five-game span, he took control of the home run race and appears to be locked in. Unfortunately, Gonzo plays 16 of his next 22 games and 22 of his next 33 at pitcher-friendly PetCo Park, where home run hitters go to die. Expect his home run pace to waver up and down throughout the season, but don't count on him finishing in the top five.

Kansas City Ro... — No, sorry, I just can't do it. You, me, the dude reading this over your shoulder right now, and any Kansas City Royals fan over the age of 20 all know that the Royals have little chance to enter September with a real shot at stealing a division title in the weak AL Central, but I just refuse to beat down such a great story for a team that has done things the right way by growing talent in the minor leagues, remaining fiscally responsible without giving up on free agents altogether and maintaining such a gem of a stadium without overpricing tickets and cheating a fan base hungry for a decent baseball team. For what it is worth, I'm rooting for you, Royals!

Business As Usual

This final group is that rare combination of "good" and "consistent." Never way up nor way down, those that maintain such standing are the baseball equivalent to those that keep a credit score in the 780 range and above (you know who you are). You can bet that what you are seeing from them right now is the very same thing you will see from them in August and quite likely the same thing you'll see from them next June as well.

Those finding themselves on the list below are as reliable as the sunrise.

Albert Pujols — Sigh. If I see one more highlight of Albert Pujols coming up to bat in game representing the tying or winning run, I'm going to scream. He always delivers. In those exceedingly rare instances that he doesn't, he will invariably deliver in his next at bat. If you brush him back, he homers in his next at bat. If he strikes out his first three times up, he doubles the winning run home in his last at bat. He is, as the commercials imply, robotic in his consistent excellence. And I hate him for it. So should you. Let's start a "We Hate Albert" website. I'll pay for it. But it won't matter one bit, he'll still kill our teams in a clutch situation.

Texas Rangers — Yes, you read that correctly. The time has come for Texas. They have assembled a talented group of players that play hard on offense and defense and finally have some starting pitching to work with. While they may ultimately struggle to hold off the Angels once they get rolling, they are for real and should be in a good position to land the wild card playoff berth. Speed and defense don't slump and Texas has put both to great use by supplementing their power with some of that intangible stuff you hear so much about.

The Top of the NL Central — While so many were anxious to throw this entire division to the wolves two short seasons ago, it has quickly become one of the most entertaining races to watch year in and year out. Milwaukee, Chicago, and St. Louis each have the horses to stick around for the long-haul and all three are good enough to be considered the cream of the NL crop in 2009. Trouble is, one of the three will miss the playoffs entirely, making for a very interesting September. The Cubs play 10 straight against the two in September and Milwaukee and St. Louis close their season head-to-head. Stay tuned to this race all season long, as it will be a beauty.

ESPN's Peter Gammons — This guy is the epitome of consistency. He is getting up there in age and has had some significant health problems in recent years, but has there ever been anyone as dead-on in recognizing talent (outside of the dais of "American Idol" judges, of course)?

Over the past four seasons, I have heard the man say the following sentences:

1. "Keep your eye on Grady Sizemore, a rookie looking to land an everyday spot in Cleveland's outfield. This kid can do it all."

2. "Cincinnati has a player by the name of Jay Bruce who should be a mid-year call up. Once he gets to the bigs, he isn't going back and he is the future of Cincinnati Red baseball."

3. "Though he is set to start the season in the minors, expect the Rays to call up 3B Evan Longoria by May. He is the best combination of offensive and defensive consistency that this league has seen in years."

4. "While off most people's radar screen, Kansas City's Zack Grienke is poised to become the dominant pitcher that the Royals have hoped he'd become."

Gammons doesn't heap praise on too many minor league players, but he sure does know talent when he sees it. In each of the four cases above, Gammons was talking about these kids years before they even got a shot at the big leagues. If you are picking a fantasy team, be sure you spend at least half of your prep time reading Gammons' articles ... it will pay off in the end.

Okay, enough of that. Let's PLAY BALL!!!