April 3rd, 2009: The Orlando Magic defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 116-87 in Orlando. The day is significant for two reasons: first, the Magic (a possible Eastern Conference Finals opponent for Cleveland), were the last team to beat the Cavs in the regular season (yes, I'm aware that the Cavs lost on the final night of the regular season to Philly, but they had nothing to play for and rested their starters).
Second, and more importantly, it was the last time this Cleveland team was challenged. The Cavs became the first team in NBA history to win each of their first seven postseason games by double-digits. They played a team with inferior talent in the first round, a team with inferior talent and injury problems in the second round, and regardless of who wins between Boston and Orlando, the Cavs will once again play an inferior team that has little to no chance of beating them.
June 4th, 2009: The first day of the NBA Finals.
As I've said it many times before, I'm no mathematician. But, if my calculations are correct and assuming the Cavs have as easy a time in the conference finals as most people predict, that means this Cleveland team will not have been tested for two months and one day.
The reason the Cavs will go so long without being tested is simple: they are head and shoulders better than every team in their conference. It's not Cleveland's fault that their first two opponents in the playoffs had no business even being in the same gym as the Cavs. All they can do is beat the teams in front of them, regardless of how predetermined the outcome might seem. That's exactly what they've done, and they've done it in convincing fashion.
In fact, you could argue that they've shown more focus than any other team in the playoffs by having the determination to actually beat the Hawks and Pistons by double figures regularly like they were supposed to. Ask the Lakers; just because you're supposed to beat a team on paper doesn't mean that it's a foregone conclusion.
It begs the question: have the Cavs chances of winning a title actually been hindered by the fact that they've been so much better than their opponents in the postseason.
Look at their likely opponents in the NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets or the Los Angeles Lakers (I don't care what happened on Sunday, the Rockets can't win two more games without Yao). Either team will have been battle-tested heading into the NBA Finals.
The Nuggets, despite having the same 7-0 record in the playoffs as the Cavs, have taken a much different path to get there. They've played two extremely intense series, and most of their seven wins have come in close games as a result of near flawless execution in the fourth quarter.
The Lakers have faced more adversity than any of the three teams in question. They lost a game one on their home floor and then later lost a Game 4 to a team that was playing its first game of the playoffs without their best player. If they go on to win this series and the next to reach the NBA Finals, it's because they've played with the mental toughness of a champion in order to overcome the adversity that they were faced with.
The Cavs, on the other hand, look like they will reach the NBA Finals without being tested mentally even once. They'll be able to breeze through the Eastern Conference Playoffs on talent alone. That won't be the case in the NBA Finals. Believe me, whether it's Denver or L.A., the Cavs will be tested in the Finals.
Maybe the Cavs do have what it takes mentally to respond well to playing with its back against the wall, but how do we know? There are a lot of teams in this league that play great when they're ahead. There are only a handful of teams that play great when it matters most. The Nuggets and Lakers are two of them.
The Cavs are probably one of those teams, too. Only we haven't seen it yet. Maybe we never will.
Maybe it's making too much of an assumption to think that the Cavs will even be tested in the Finals. Perhaps we're watching the '91 Bulls all over again. Maybe we are three weeks into the "LeBron Era" and we don't even realize it yet. Maybe the reason the Cavs are playing inferior teams is because we're watching one of the best teams in NBA history.
Maybe not.
It's just too early to tell. Being significantly better than your opponents in the postseason is not a problem. But going the two months leading up to the NBA Finals without having to overcome any adversity is.
I'll admit, playing nothing but blowouts is a great problem to have.
But when the NBA Finals rolls around, living on easy street could mean living dangerously for the Cavs.
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