The Perfect Storm

If a 50-1 underdog can win the Kentucky Derby, surely we can see some upsets in the second round of NBA the playoffs. But, just like at Churchhill Downs, there will need to be a perfect storm of circumstances for a higher seeded team to pull off an upset in this round of the playoffs.

Today, we look at all four underdogs in the second round of the NBA playoffs and examine exactly what will need to happen in the coming weeks for there to be any chance of seeing anything other than a Lakers/Nuggets and Cavs/Celtics conference finals.

No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets

Houston's chances: 50-1

Hey, it worked for Mine That Bird.

Still, I can't bring myself to give Houston much more than a 50-1 chance of beating the Lakers in this series.

It took the worst shooting performance that Kobe Bryant will have all postseason, two fantastic plays down the stretch by two great offensive players, and a bad inbounds pass for the Utah Jazz to steal just one game from the Lakers in round one. The biggest knock on the Lakers so far this postseason: they jump out to big leads in the first half and don't protect them.

Not having any problems until you have a 20-point lead is a pretty good problem to have. So much focus was put on the fact that the Jazz cut into the Lakers' lead in every game that the obvious was overlooked: the Lakers are so good that when they're clicking, they can jump out to a big lead on you in a hurry.

The Rockets must prevent the Lakers from getting off to a hot start in the first half of every game to have a chance to pull off the upset. The Rocket's very slow, very deliberate pace isn't suited for making big comebacks. Utah's combination of athleticism and three-point shooting made them capable of making runs in the second half. The Rockets don't have the athletes or the shooters that Utah has. They need to play from ahead and dictate the pace, or else suffer the same fate as the Jazz.

The perfect storm: Three things need to happen for the Rockets to win this series. First, Yao has to dominate on the inside. I'm assuming (although you never really know with Uncle Phil) that Lamar Odom will remain in the starting lineup for this series, thus forcing Andrew Bynum to the bench. That means that Yao will be guarded by Pau Gasol to start the game. Pau, for as great as he's been this season, still ranks as an average-at-best on-the-ball post defender in my book. Yao has to score early and/or pick up quick fouls on the Lakers starting frontcourt. That would force Jackson to have to bring in Bynum, effectively slowing the Lakers down offensively, which plays right into Houston's hand.

Secondly, Houston needs to shoot the ball well. Their 37% from behind the three-point line in the first round is exactly the league average for the postseason. If you're going to beat a far superior team, you need to shoot the ball better than league average.

Ron Artest proved time and again in the Rockets' six games against the Blazers that he is willing to settle for jump shots, attempting a team-high 36 threes in round one. If the secretary of defense is going to continue to shoot threes, no matter how ill-advised, he'd better start making more than just 27% for Houston to have any chance.

Finally, the Rockets need Kobe to run cold. It's been well documented that the Rockets have some formulas and statistical data that they count on when game planning defensively for an opponent. Supposedly, Shane Battier is like a sponge soaking in this data, and tries to force players into their "cold zones" when defending them. There was even an article in the Wall Street Journal using Battier's defense on Kobe as an example of how successful these formulas and statistics really are.

Kobe averaged just over 28 points per game against the Rockets in the four regular season meetings this year.

Translation: there is no defense that can stop Kobe. You just hope that he goes 5-of-24. It worked once for Utah, it needs to happen again (or close to it) if the Rockets are going to advance to the Western Conference Finals.

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks

Dallas' chances: 40-1

Okay, I admit that these odds are skewed a little bit because Dallas is already down 1-0 in the series, but to be honest, I wouldn't have had them much higher than 30-1 to begin with. It's not necessarily that the Mavs are bad; it's that the Nuggets are really good right now.

Denver's absolute massacre of the Hornets in round one was the biggest story of round one that no one talked about. Chauncey Billups is starting to show the national audience what fans in Detroit have known for years: Chauncey can change the game in so many ways.

Whether he's hitting threes like he did in game one (his eight threes was just one shy of the playoff record, and he sat the entire fourth quarter), taking care of the ball while still getting his teammates involved (37 assists and just 6 turnovers in the first round), or making clutch free throws down the stretch (36-of-38, or 95%, in round one), Billups is the among the best in the league at figuring out what it will take for his team to win and then executing that gameplan to the fullest.

Dallas made a conscious effort to slow Billups in game one. In some ways, it worked. Chauncey was just 2-of-8 from the field, and didn't attempt a single free throw in the game. The Nuggets still won by 14 points. Billups couldn't carry the team by himself on Sunday, so he put his ego aside and let the rest of this very talented team carry the Nuggets to an easy double-digit victory.

The perfect storm: Obviously, just stopping Chauncey isn't the answer. And as great as Carmelo Anthony and Nene played in game one, stopping them isn't the answer, either.

The key to stopping the Nuggets is to limit their bench production. Three different players scored double-figures off the Nuggets bench in Game 1.

The Mavericks need to figure out a way to limit the production from the Denver bench, especially in Denver, if they are going to win this series. I've said before, and I'm sure I'll say it again at some point soon, but role players play much better at home.

J.R. Smith may have the worst shot selection in the league at times, but he doesn't miss when he steps into an open three. And when he does hit one at the Pepsi Center, the crowd goes crazy.

Chris Anderson may be overly aggressive when attempting to block shots, which can lead to careless fouls, but when he does get his hands on a blocked shot at home, the crowd goes wild.

Denver's bench whips the home crowd into such a frenzy that it's not just the altitude that gives the Nuggets the best home-court advantage this side of the Q. Dallas needs to find a way to minimize production from Smith and Anderson, effectively taking the crowd out of the game, as well, and shift home court back to Dallas where they were an impressive 32-9 this season to have any chance to take this series.

The Nuggets are winning by almost 20 points per game at home this postseason. It's safe to say that it's going to take the perfect storm for Dallas to beat them at the Pepsi Center this series.

No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 4 Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta's chances: 50-1

The Cavs were the most impressive team in the first round of the NBA playoffs. No real surprise there. There's a reason they won 66 games in the regular season: they're really freaking good.

The trouble is, because they're so good and swept the Pistons in round one, the Cavs will have had nine days off before they take the floor against the Hawks for Game 1 on Tuesday night.

There are two different schools of thought on this one. One is that the Cavs will be well rested and have had plenty of time to work out any kinks they had in the first round, even though there weren't many. The other is that the Cavs, having not played in over a week, could come out rusty as they try to get their rhythm back.

I tend to lean towards the latter on this one. It's good to get some rest this late in the season, but when a team is clicking on all cylinders for the better part of six months by playing just about every other day, there's a chance that team can lose their rhythm having to sit for over a week straight while waiting to see who their opponent will be.

The perfect storm: The Hawks will be riding the momentum of their convincing Game 7 win against the Heat into Cleveland Tuesday night. If the Cavs do come out rusty after the nine-day layoff and the Hawks can match their Game 7 intensity from Sunday afternoon, there's a chance that they could steal home court away from the Cavs and make it a very interesting series.

Of course, there's the whole 42-1 home record at the Q that the Hawks would need to overcome, and the rust I speak of will probably only last for about the first quarter, if that, so Atlanta would have to come out on fire and take full advantage early.

Still, no matter how unlikely winning at the Q may seem, it's only shot the Hawks have to upset the Cavs in this series, so they might as well do it in Game 1 when there's a slight chance Cleveland could come out flat.

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 3 Orlando Magic

Orlando's chances: 3-1

As you can see, I don't think an Orlando win in this series would be much of an upset at all. Boston's epic first round series win against the Bulls may have made for great television, but it also was a seven-game showcase of just how much they miss Kevin Garnett inside.

The Bulls' combination of Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, and Brad Miller playing inside was too much to handle down low for the Celtics for much of the series. No offense to Noah, Thomas, and Miller, but they aren't exactly the cream of the crop as far as NBA centers go. Imagine the difficulty Boston will have with Dwight Howard.

The perfect storm: If Orlando can catch Boston shorthanded up front, Dwight Howard will have a field day in this series. What's that? Boston's only three bigs are Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Brian Scalabrine? Uh-oh.

When the best way to stop Dwight Howard is to foul him and hope he misses his free throws, and the one thing above all else that the Celtics cannot afford is foul trouble from its bigs, it spells a recipe for disaster for the defending champs.

Boston's best chance to win this series is to make it as tough on Dwight Howard as possible without fouling, let him get his 30-40 points that way, and try and defend the three point line at all cost. If they get caught up in trying to play the percentages and forcing Howard to make free throws, it'll be a long series for the C's.

Boston showed that it still has the heart of a champion by grinding out the grueling seven-game series against Chicago, but it must also prove that it has determination and will of one, too, by sticking to a gameplan that allows Howard to dominate at times, no matter how frustrating it may get.

If not, Orlando will be the closest thing the NBA has to "Mine That Bird" in the second round.

Look for Scott Shepherd's NBA column on Mondays and Thursdays during the NBA playoffs.