With the first two games of each NBA playoff series in the books, an incredible five of the eight series are tied up at a game apiece. Not since 2003 have five first-round series been tied after two games.
While conventional wisdom says that the road team in each of the five knotted up series has the advantage because they have stolen home-court advantage, that isn't necessarily the case. If the higher-seeded team is good enough to win a road game, it's safe to assume that the lower-seeded team can win one, too.
With the two most competitive series of the first round (Boston/Chicago, San Antonio/Dallas) set for a change of venue tonight, let's take a closer look at the two matchups to determine who has the advantage as the first round goes old-school and reverts back to a good, old-fashioned best-of-five format.
No. 7 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 2 Boston Celtics
You know who has the real advantage in this series? The fans. What an amazing first two games these teams have played.
The playoffs kicked off last Saturday with one of the most evenly matched and exciting playoff games since, well, since last year when the Spurs and Suns played their epic OT battle in Game 1 of their first round series.
Rookie of the Year Derrick Rose was sensational in Game 1, and Rajon Rondo and the Celtics would not back down despite playing their first game knowing that Kevin Garnett will miss the entire playoffs and Ray Allen shooting just 1-12 from the field. In the end, the Bulls were able to pull off the upset and send a message for the rest of the series: we came to play.
As if Game 1 wasn't a good enough show, the Bulls and Celtics were back at it again on Monday night for Game 2 and delivered another instant classic. Rondo had a triple double, Leon Powe was lost for the series after blowing out his knee, Derrick Rose was in foul trouble, Lindsay Hunter came back from the dead and gave some solid minutes, Joakim Noah and Ty Thomas were active on both ends, Kendrick Perkins was fired up ... and that was just the first three quarters!
The fourth quarter turned into a personal shootout between Ben Gordon and Ray Allen. Gordon finished with a playoff career-high 42 points, but Allen got the last laugh, burying the game-winner with two seconds left, finishing with 28 points in the second half.
We tend to hyperbolize during the playoffs because each game has so much significance, so I want to be careful not to overstate things here. Ray Allen vs. Ben Gordon in the second half wasn't exactly Larry Bird vs. Dominique Wilkins, there wasn't nearly as much on the line and it wasn't exactly two of the greatest players of their era dueling out there, but it was close. Fifteen years from now, Game 2 will be replayed on ESPN Classic, and the reason is because it was one of the greatest head-to-head showdowns in NBA playoff history.
This series has been so close to this point, it's almost impossible to predict who will have the advantage the rest of the way. One extra stop down the stretch either way and either team could have walked into the United Center up 2-0 in the series.
In a pinch, though, I'd have to give a slight edge to the Bulls for the remaining five games in this series. Boston's biggest strength in this series has been their ability to control the offensive glass. Now that Powe is out, the Celtics have just three healthy big men on their roster. Not only does the possibility of fatigue become a factor, but any sort of foul trouble for any of the Boston bigs puts the Celtics in a tough spot.
They can either slide Paul Pierce to the power forward position and create a mismatch on the perimeter, sacrificing their biggest advantage of the series in the process, or count on Mikki Moore to give them 20 or so quality minutes. Neither option is ideal.
Glen Davis was great in game two scoring a career-high 26 points, but he's a role player. Role players always play much better at home because they can feed off the energy of the crowd. He's going to be asked to put up the same kind of production, without fouling, in the three remaining road games for Boston to have a chance.
I think that it's going to be a dogfight the rest of the way, but the Bulls have too much size for the undermanned Boston frontline. Unless Ray Allen stops being streaky and starts playing as a consistent weapon, Chicago has a real chance to complete the upset. Look for the Bulls to put away the Celtics and become the NBA's version of Cinderella as they advance to the second round.
No. 3 San Antonio Spurs Vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks
This series hasn't exactly had the heart-stopping finishes as the previously mentioned series, but it's still been very interesting. Dallas came out and stunned the Spurs in game one behind a balanced offensive attack, but their strategy of using J.J. Barea as a "Tony [Parker] stopper" looked like it may have been fool's gold as Parker was able to get anything he wanted in Game 2.
The change of venue should help role players like Barea and Brandon Bass get back on track offensively (they shot a combined 4-of-12 in Game 2 for just 13 points compared to 13-of-23 for 27 points in Game 1), but Dallas needs to make some major adjustments defensively if they want to recapture the upper hand in this series.
The playoffs are about making adjustments between games, and there's no coach in the league better at it than Gregg Popovich. Erick Dampier vowed to put Tony Parker on the floor early in Game 3 to send a message, but if that's Dallas' lone adjustment, they can start making tee times.
The Mavericks would be better served to trap Parker as he crosses half-court and force players like Roger Mason and Michael Finley consistently knock down jump shots for 48 minutes. Right now, the San Antonio offense is 100% based on getting shots for Parker and Tim Duncan. If they can take the ball out of Parker's hands early and force him to play off the ball, it puts the pressure on the other players to step up.
Superstars like Parker and Duncan will always bring their "A" game regardless of where the game is played, but asking guys like Mason to carry more of the offensive load in a hostile environment looks like the only way the Mavs can slow down the Spurs offensively.
Pop pushed all the right buttons heading into Game 2, now it's Rick Carlisle's turn to counter. I think that Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league today, but I'm not sure that he has what it takes to match wits with a Pop over a seven-game series. Dallas needs to take both Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to win this series; a split simply isn't good enough.
San Antonio has won four consecutive playoff series in which the series has been tied after two games, and I don't expect that to change any time soon. Dallas has the talent to eliminate the Spurs, but the Spurs have history on their side. I predicted this series to go seven earlier in the week, and it still might, but only if Dallas can find a way to stay a step ahead of the San Antonio coaching staff.
I can't see that happening, and I'm looking forward to the inevitable Denver/San Antonio slugfest in round two.
Look for Scott Shepherd's NBA column on Mondays and Thursdays during the NBA playoffs.
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