NFL Mock Draft: A Challenge Accepted

So the past few years I've run what I like to call the NFL Mock Draft Mock Competition. It's basically what it sounds like. I took the mock drafts of various experts from across the landscape of online sports writing, graded them on an objective criteria of my own choosing, then made fun of the losers.

(Last year, Pat Kirwan of NFL.com and Rich Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News tied for first. In 2007, it was a tie between ESPN's Todd McShay and Mel Kiper. In 2006, it was CNNSI's Don Banks. I've never finished higher than sixth.)

You might notice there's an extra "mock" in the title. The second "mock" was in reference to the fact the only people who knew about the competition were me and the few friends and family members who read my blog. So it was a competition, but not really since none of the participants knew I was using their work to wrack up dozens of blog reads. (Dozens!)

And so, not thinking of any possible repercussions, I ended up writing the following paragraph:

"In the end, I finished one spot lower than last year and three spots lower than '06. Kirwan has gone from sixth to fifth to a tie for first. McShay dropped from a tie for first last year to eighth, which is where he finished in '06. Gosselin proved why he's one of the most respected names in the mock draft business. King proved he's as good at mock drafts as he is picking games, which is to say he stinks. (I think he's too gullible, doesn't have enough of a filter to tell when people are feeding him bulls**t.) And Matt Thomas still stinks. After two consecutive last-place finishes, he will not be invited back."

Well, yeah. Perhaps that was a little harsh.

Unbeknownst to me, Thomas actually had the gall to read my blog. Understandably taking umbrage with my derision, Thomas has challenged me to a mock-off in 2009. And since I am not one to back off from a challenge (at least not when nobody can punch me in the face), I have accepted. Sometime an Internet sports dork has do to what an Internet sports dork has to do.

Not having a journalism degree from Arizona like me, Thomas has simplified the scoring criteria: Player/team/draft position all correct = 3 points; team/player = 1 point; player/draft position = 0.5 points; highest point total wins. Easy enough.

So that's the story. Thomas has offered to quit the mock draft business forever if he loses. I have advised him that will not be necessary. Win or lose, he must mock on. Here is his final 2009 NFL mock draft.

After all, he's my only guarantee against finishing last.

Let's do it.

1. Detroit — QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia

To take a quarterback first overall, you have to be 100 percent. Stafford may be a swell guy with a cannon for an arm, but the junior is not a 100 percent lock to be a star. Considering JaMarcus Russell got $61 million ($32 million guaranteed) in the top spot two years ago, and Matt Ryan got $72 million ($35.75 guaranteed) out of the three spot last year, the Lions would be looking at somewhere around $75 million in total value and nearing $40 million in guarantees to sign Stafford, a guy half the league seems to believe isn't even the best QB in the draft.

That's just stupid.

With that said, this is the Lions and new head coach Jim Schwartz seems intent on resetting the franchise with a new face, ala the Falcons with Ryan last year.

2. St. Louis — LT Jason Smith, Baylor

It doesn't matter what philosophy the Rams plan on employing in year one of the Steve Spagnuolo era if Marc Bulger continues to get his ass kicked every time he drops back to pass. They spent huge to upgrade the middle of the line with Jason Brown from Baltimore. After the release of Orlando Pace, the Rams absolutely have to have a top-flight left tackle. Alex Barron isn't it.

3. Kansas City — WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech

Everybody and their mama is giving the Chiefs Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry, and that makes sense. Their defense needs help and Curry is the best defensive player on the board.

But...

Crabtree and Dwayne Bowe would give new head coach Todd Haley a close approximation of the greatness he had with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona last year. Kansas City is paying huge cash for Matt Cassel and new GM Scott Pioli isn't known for taking linebackers high in the draft (last year's pick of Jerod Mayo 10th overall was the first LB taken in the first round during his tenure in New England). Crabtree, Bowe, and Tony Gonzalez running the middle would make for one hell of an offense.

4. Seattle — LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest

Seahawks fans rejoice. They've upgraded their offense considerably with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and now add the best defender on the board with Curry.

5. Cleveland — LB/DE Brian Orakpo, Texas

Eric Mangini fell in love with Vernon Gholston last year and spent the sixth overall pick on him. This year, there are two players in the Gholston mold — Orakpo and Florida State's Everett Brown. You look at them in person and you think, "holy crap!" But when you watch them play week in and week out, it's just as much "Is he in the game? I don't see him."

Still, the Browns need somebody who can get to the QB in new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's defense. Orakpo fits the bill.

6. Cincinnati — LT Eugene Monroe, Virginia

The Bengals absolutely have to build a line to protect Carson Palmer. They refused to pay for T.J. Houshmandzadeh, which would make it unlikely they would want to spend huge on a receiver like Jeremy Maclin, even though they could really use him. Monroe is the best talent at their biggest weakness.

7. Oakland — WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri

Maclin seems to be the forgotten man in this draft. It used to be he was in everybody's top 10. Now I've seen some mocks with him down in the late teens. Why? Is he not the most dangerous receiver in the open field any more? I think he is. And I think Al Davis still loves speed and the deep ball. Go with what you know.

8. Denver — QB Mark Sanchez, Southern California

(Projected trade with Jacksonville. Jacksonville receives Denver's 12th overall pick and the first of Denver's two third-round picks, No. 79 overall.)

From Sanchez' Scouts, Inc scouting report: "Sanchez is consistently accurate in the short-to-intermediate zones — particularly between the numbers. He displays very good touch. Gets the ball out quickly and throws a 'catchable' ball on quick-hitters. Knows how to drop the ball in between linebackers and safeties. Rarely misses an open target."

And this: "Very good pocket presence. Really improved in this area as a junior. Displays quick feet. Gets set quickly and shows agility to avoid the initial rush. Will step up in the pocket and also shows the foot speed to out-run the rush to the perimeter. Is a better athlete than appeared most of junior season, when he was battling a lingering knee injury."

Now think of the spread offense new Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels is going to run. Doesn't that description fit perfectly the type of quarterback who would excel in that style of offense?

Yes. Yes, it does.

9. Green Bay — DT B.J. Raji, Boston College

The worst possible thing you can do as a defense is try to switch to a 3-4 without a dominant nose tackle. Even more than a solid run stuffing DE and hybrid OLBs who can cover and rush the passer, you have to have a nose who can hold up at the point of attack. Don't, and you're bailing out the ocean with a shot glass. Raji is by far the most dominant interior lineman on the board.

10. San Francisco — LT Andre Smith, Alabama

One of the best ways to predict a draft choice is to type-cast the guys making the decision. These aren't computers making rational decisions solely on the bases of needs and available resources. These are guys with personalities, egos and a desire to have their teams built in their own images.

In the case of Mike Singletary, he wants to smash. He wants to smash on offense. He wants to smash on defense. He wants to smash on special teams. Any area where he can possibly hurt the other team, that's where Singletary is going to go. He's not going to be afraid of all the hoopla around Smith's end-of-season suspension or bizarre combine behavior. All he's going to see is a guy who can smash. That'll be enough.

11. Buffalo — OT Michael Oher, Mississippi

With Jason Peters off to Philadelphia, Oher, a clear No. 4 in the OT pecking order, fits a prime need at tackle.

12. Jacksonville — RB Chris Wells, Ohio State

(Received in trade from Denver)

This might seem high for Wells, but his stock seems to have taken off over the last week or so. After cutting the aging Fred Taylor, Wells provides the brute force compliment to Maurice Jones-Drew.

13. Washington — DE/LB Aaron Maybin, Penn State

The Jason Taylor experiment didn't work. So rather than going with another old guy past his prime, the Redskins select a young guy still three years away from his.

14. New Orleans — CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

Anybody who's watched a single Saints game over the past two years has seen them get torched by the deep ball. I'm not sure Jenkins and his 4.60 40 really fixes that problem, but he's the only first-round corner available. It's a bad year for teams needing immediately help in the secondary.

15. Houston — LB Brian Cushing, Southern California

There's better value here with the top two remaining defensive ends, Robert Ayers and Tyson Jackson, but the Texans have their ends in Mario Williams and Antonio Smith. Cushing steps in next to MLB Demeco Ryans to shore up the major remaining weak spot on the Texans' roster.

16. San Diego — DE Tyson Jackson, Louisiana State

With Igor Olshansky gone to Dallas, Jackson steps in as a perfect fit as the 3-4 end. What he lacks in top-end quickness and ability to turn the edge as a pass rusher he makes up for in brute strength and excellent ability to defend the run.

17. New York Jets — RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia

Popular opinion has the Jets going QB with Kansas State's Josh Freeman or WR with somebody like Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey, but both of those come with concerns, and neither look to be able to major contributors in year one. Current Jets starter Thomas Jones will be 31 when the season starts and is boycotting voluntary workouts in search of a new deal, not exactly a great way to endear himself to team-first new head coach Rex Ryan (see Coles, Laveranues). Moreno makes Jones expendable and would team with Leon Washington for a very dynamic 1-2 RB duo.

18. Denver — LB Rey Maualuga, Southern California

Denver doesn't just need players on defense. It needs attitude. Maualuga brings a violent streak and outstanding size to the 3-4 ILB position. He will be a huge factor in improving a porous Denver run defense.

19. Tampa Bay — QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State

The Bucs bought themselves some time at the quarterback position by signing Byron Leftwich to start in 2009, but he won't be the long-term answer. Freeman can come in, then sit for at least a year while he learns how to play at the NFL level.

20. Detroit — DE Robert Ayers, Tennessee

The Lions have a pretty good set of linebackers, especially after acquiring Julian Peterson from the Seahawks, but their defensive line is sorely in need of an upgrade. Ayers has been mentioned as high as the 12-13 range, so this would represent excellent value for the rebuilding Lions. Florida State's Everette Brown could be a possibility here, as well, but Ayers is much bigger and stronger at the point of attack. Brown is more suited to a situational pass rushing role, at least early in his career.

21. Philadelphia — TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

With L.J. Smith off to Baltimore in free agency, Pettigrew instantly becomes a major force in the Eagles offense. There's a chance the Eagles could move this pick to Arizona in an Anquan Boldin deal. If that does happen, I would expect the Cardinals to take Pettigrew here, as well.

22. Minnesota — WR Percy Harvin, Florida

With Adrian Peterson in the backfield, few teams should be able to use the play-action game as well as the Vikings. But even with the acquisition of Bernard Berrian in the offseason last year, the Vikings' pass attack was below average (25th at 184.8 passing yards per game). Of course much of that was due to poor quarterback play, but with Sage Rosenfels in town, that should be less of an issue. At the least, Harvin would provide a major upgrade in the kick return game.

23. New England — LB Clay Matthews, Southern California

This pick is so obvious, it's bound to be wrong. Pats head coach Bill Belichick has said multiple times that Clay Sr. was one of his most favorite players he ever coached (during his first HC stint, with the Browns). Clay Jr. plays with the same type of intelligence and violent passion, traits Belichick holds dear. He also loves football more than anything, something the Pats value very highly.

24. Atlanta — DT Peria Jerry, Mississippi

The Falcons finally completed their divorce from Grady Jackson, so they need some new beef in the middle of their defensive line. Jerry is more athletic than his 300-lb frame would indicate and would help anchor against run-heavy division opponents Tampa Bay and Carolina.

25. Miami — CB Vontae Davis, Illinois

Davis has the frame and athleticism to go much higher, but questions about his work ethic and coachability have crashed his draft stock. But the Dolphins are one of those veteran-laden teams, especially on defense, where the coaches don't have to do a whole lot of effort training. That gets handled in the locker room by the players. With a division that now includes both Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, a bigger corner with top-end speed is a commodity you don't pass up.

26. Baltimore — WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland

After watching his stock soar after the combine, Heyward-Bey has fallen back to Earth a bit due to concerns about his route-running and hands. But as the saying goes, you can't coach speed. Heyward-Bey was the fastest guy at the combine and should help stretch the field for second-year quarterback Joe Flacco.

27. Indianapolis — WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina

With Marvin Harrison gone, the Colts need to re-stock the depth chart. Nicks doesn't bring the top-end speed of Marvin (or Harvin or Heyward-Bey), but he's got great hands and shows no fear going over the middle. With Peyton Manning as your quarterback, that's enough.

28. Buffalo — C Alex Mack, California

(From Philadelphia in exchange for Jason Peters)

With Oher selected at No. 11, there's no need for Arizona's Eben Britton. The Bills absolutely get killed by dominant nose tackles. In a division with Vince Wilfork, Kris Jenkins and Jason Ferguson, that's a bit of a problem. The likes of Mel Kiper (who likes Oregon's Max Unger better) will give the Bills hell for this pick, but Mack is a guy you plug into the middle of your line and don't worry about for the next decade.

29. New York Giants — LB/DE Everette Brown, Florida State

The Giants aren't in a position where they have to fill holes. They could certainly use another receiver, but the top-rated guy left on the board at this point is Rutgers' Kenny Britt, and he has some flags about him I'm not sure the Giants want to take on in the wake of the Plaxico Burress debacle. Brown can fit into the Giants rotation as a speed rusher who can drop back into coverage when needed.

30. Tennessee — S Louis Delmas, Western Michigan

Like the Giants, the Titans are fairly well set at every position except receiver, and the value just isn't there on the board. The best safety in the draft, Delmas is a great tackler with good instincts and a great work ethic.

31. Arizona — DT Evander Hood, Missouri

Hood's stock has been rising over the past few months. While he won't turn into an Albert Haynesworth-type of dominant interior lineman, Hood is a hard motor guy with an excellent first step. The Cardinals defense is predicated on using superior athleticism to create pressure on the pocket, thereby causing turnovers. Hood fits well.

32. Pittsburgh — DE/LB Larry English, Northern Illinois

And the next great Pittsburgh LB is born.