Draft Them
QUARTERBACKS
1. Peyton Manning
We saw Peyton come back to true form toward the end of last season. Expect him to be ready and fired up for 2009. I don't think he's up for another 49-touchdown season, but 30-plus with a low interception total looks promising.
2. Drew Brees
I'm not sure about another 5,000-yard season, but another 4,500-yard season seems imminent.
3. Tony Romo
I think Romo will begin to thrive in 2009. He has been consistently good with his yards and touchdowns and I don't think he'll miss T.O. all too much.
4. Matt Cassel
This one is a touch risky, but I think it is safe to draft Cassel, maybe not as your premier guy (don't take him before Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Chad Pennington, or anybody else above him), but he'll be solid backup or second quarterback in a two-quarterback league.
5. Matt Hasselbeck
This is perhaps a surprising pick to you. Hasselbeck had a rough year last year with injuries and lots of other things and Seattle looked pretty pathetic for the whole season, but Hasselbeck has a real weapon in T.J. Houshmandzadeh that could really open up the Seattle offense. Their running game continues to be a concern, but look for Hasselbeck to put up solid numbers and will some games this season.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Michael Turner
Perhaps a surprising number one, but Turner's consistency and dominance last year were quite solid. He received little credit for leading the Falcons to the playoffs, but without him, Matt Ryan very well could have been a flop. Ryan has established himself well and will continue to be a solid quarterback, which means Turner will have more room to run. Expect another 1,500-yard season.
2. Adrian Peterson
The only reason Peterson doesn't hit number one is because of the fumbles. It's gotten to the point where he's seriously become a liability in close games which means perhaps that he could get benched if the fumbles continue. He'll probably rush for more yards than Turner, but with the fumbles, he's not a true number one.
3. Matt Forte
The biggest winner in the Jay Cutler trade? Matt Forte. When Brett Favre got traded to the Jets last season, I drafted Thomas Jones in every one of my fantasy drafts and he turned out to be quite a good pick. Favre did not have a great season, but the defenses were so loosened up by Favre's very presence that there was more room to run. This is what will happen for Matt Forte. Along with his pass-catching abilities, he's a serious candidate for MVP in 2009.
4. DeAngelo Williams
I'll admit that Williams may deserve the top spot. He had some ridiculous games last season, scoring4 touchdowns on two occasions, but there were some games where he was flat-out shut down. As teams get to know him better, he may become less of a threat. He should still produce heavily, however.
5. Steve Slaton
Slaton is another back benefiting from the good passing game around him. With Andre Johnson out there somewhere, it opens up lots of holes for Slaton.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Johnson
There were a lot of arguments about Fitzgerald being the best wide receiver in the game today, but Andre Johnson truly has something to say about that. His route-running and sheer physical presence are enough to make him close to unstoppable. If Matt Schaub can stay healthy and continually get better, Johnson has a chance for some MVP numbers in 2009.
2. Larry Fitzgerald
Fitzgerald is obviously most effective with Anquan Boldin opposite him, but I think Warner has another good year in him and Fitz will be stellar as always.
3. Calvin Johnson
Despite the fact that he's playing for the hapless Lions, Johnson still is able to produce huge numbers. Whoever his quarterback is, expect Johnson to be a solid bet in 2009.
4. Reggie Wayne
With Marvin Harrison gone, Wayne becomes even more of the top dog. Anthony Gonzalez will still be helpful to him, but Wayne and Manning have lots of potential in 2009.
5. Dwayne Bowe
Bow had a good season last year with mediocre to really poor quarterbacks. If he and Cassel can find the chemistry, he could put up 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Jason Witten
With Owens gone and Romo happy, I think Witten may lead the league in receiving next season. He's almost always open and is so sure-handed that I'd consider taking him before I take any receiver in the draft.
2. Tony Gonzalez
Whether he gets traded to a contender or stays in K.C., Gonzalez is set for 2009. He'll put up his usual numbers and be great as usual.
3. Dallas Clark
So long as he can avoid injury, Clark is always a solid pick at tight end.
4. Antonio Gates
Despite having somewhat of a down year, Gates still caught eight touchdown passes, second among tight ends only to Gonzalez.
5. John Carlson
As a rookie, Carlson looked good in the pass patterns (not so good trying to block, but you don't lose fantasy points for that). Expect his numbers to improve under the steady hand of Hasselbeck.
KICKERS
1. Ryan Longwell
Longwell was 6-for-6 in field goals over 50 yards. Yeah, Jason Hanson was 8-for-8, but what good does that do when Detroit doesn't let him kick any extra points? Longwell is a solid pick.
2. Stephen Gostkowski
Gostkowski was the league's scoring leader with 148 points last year. Expect him to be toward the top of your kicker list for the next 10 years.
3. David Akers
If Philly's offense looks good, Akers will do just fine.
4. Jason Elam
Why the Broncos ever let him go, I'll never know.
5. John Kasay
Kasay didn't miss once under 40 yards and with a powerful Carolina offense, he has lots of chances to score.
DEFENSE
1. Baltimore
It looked like the Ravens perhaps were waning in their phase of amazing defenses, but they have retained much of their talent and look to be tough again next season.
2. Pittsburgh
Another solid defense is to be expected.
3. Tennessee
If they can continue to create turnovers, the Titans look like a good pick.
4. Chicago
They led the NFC in takeaways and good very well do so again.
5. Green Bay
With Charles Woodson on the loose, scoring just as many touchdowns as Ryan Grant, the Packer defense is a good fantasy pick.
Avoid Them
QUARTERBACKS
1. Tavaris Jackson
Perhaps these are no-brainers, but whoever gets the starting job will not be amazing in 2009. If Jackson or Sage Rosenfels throws 20 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions, I'll be shocked.
2. Sage Rosenfels
Rosenfels is the type of guy you can pickup off of waivers in Week 4 or so when he finds his stride or Jackson gets benched, but it's not worth drafting him.
3. Joe Flacco
Don't get me wrong, Flacco is a good quarterback who knows how to win, but he is not going to be compiling stats that will impress.
4. Kyle Orton
The starting job may not even be his and even if it is, expect a short leash. It is very doubtful that Orton will play ever down in 2009 for the Broncos, don't be tempted to take him, even as a third QB.
5. Jay Cutler
Cutler may turn out to be spectacular, but it is just not worth the risk this early in the process for Chicago. He'll loosen up defenses, but there is still no big-time wide receiver for him to count on in Chicago. It is too much of a change for them too quickly and Cutler will not be as impressive statistically in 2009 as he was in 2008.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Thomas Jones
The Jets do not have a serviceable quarterback as of now and Jones will suffer from that fact. Add to that the rise of Leon Washington and Jones should not be drafted as a starter for 2009, perhaps not even as a third or fourth back.
2. LaDainian Tomlinson
I told lots of people to get off the L.T. train last season. He had an okay year, but he is not worth a top-five pick anymore. He'll probably rush for 1,100-1,200 yards and have 10-12 touchdowns, but that is not a top back, that's a second at best back, perhaps even third.
3. Anybody on the New England Patriots
Who knows what the Patriots are trying to do with all the backs they have, but don't bother with any of them. Just avoid them all.
4. Marshawn Lynch
Despite his troubles with the law, Lynch really just doesn't look like a smart pick. The Bills picked up Dominic Rhodes, so there's the potential of him taking some carries away from Lynch and the potential of Lynch being in prison or suspended or both.
5. Derrick Ward
I'm not sure what the Bucs plan to do with Ward, but my guess is that they'll establish one-two punch with Ward and Carnell Williams. I'm not sure who is one and who is two, but even if Ward is one, he still won't breakout for an amazing season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Eddie Royal
With no Jay Cutler, don't expect Royal to even be on the map this season.
2. Jerricho Cotchery
With no Brett Favre, Cotchery's numbers will be even weaker than last year.
3. Torry Holt
With his future uncertain, you should be cautious in your drafting. If he stays in St. Louis, don't bother.
4. Lee Evans
Evans is a quality receiver, better than T.O. in my opinion, but if there's one thing that is certain to happen, it is that T.O. will complain about not getting the ball until he gets it or the team releases him. This means Evans' already low number of touchdowns may decrease. He's an okay pick, but not a great one.
5. Lance Moore
I'm going to go ahead and guess his 10 touchdowns last year were a fluke. Don't bother.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Tony Scheffler
Again, no Jay Cutler in Denver = do not draft.
2. Randy McMichael
McMichael was a force in Miami, even with lousy quarterbacks but in Saint Louis, he's lost some life.
3. Vernon Davis
No particular reason, he just doesn't look worth it.
4. Robert Royal
Again, just not a good decision.
5. Kellen Winslow
I have no idea what the Bucs plan on doing with Winslow, but the lack of a truly solid quarterback leaves me avoiding Winslow completely.
KICKERS
1. Jason Hanson
Despite the fact that he's the best kicker in the league, Detroit's offense is too woeful for him to get many good looks.
2. Jay Feely
With the Jets future looking dim, especially on offense, expect the same to be true of the typically reliable Feely.
3. Sebastian Janikowski
Janikowski has the same problem as Hanson, only Janikowski isn't as good.
4. Phil Dawson
He managed to put together an okay season with a lousy Browns team in 2008, but most signs point to the Browns not improving.
5. Josh Scobee
Scobee looked okay last year, but Jacksonville's offense is going nowhere fast and their defense is headed in the wrong direction so who knows if he'll get 25 attempts at field goals this year.
DEFENSE
1. Detroit
It goes without saying, but I still should say it.
2. St. Louis
Their defense may actually be worse than Detroit, I'm not quite sure.
3. Denver
Despite Champ Bailey and his dominance, the Broncos defense looks pathetic and there has been little done to remedy that.
4. Dallas
They're an attractive pick with lots of sacks, but they allow way too many points. Don't be fooled.
5. New Orleans
Most people should know this, but just in case you're unaware. The Saints' defense gives it up big time.
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