Since the arrival of No. 5, the Boston Celtics have been a revitalized organization. The culture instantly changed to one of winning, in large part because the furious, white-hot passion of Kevin Garnett wouldn't have it any other way, both on the court and off it. A championship banner was raised and the Celtics appeared to be the strongest team through the first half of the '08-'09 season. Then came February 19th.
Late in the second quarter of a game against Utah, Garnett went up to slam down an alley-oop. The ball never made it to the hoop or his firm grasp, but more importantly, his right knee has not been the same since. Despite there being no contact with any Jazz player, Garnett limped his way to the locker room. Since that time, K.G. has played in only four of the team's final 26 games. The four-game stretch in late March where Garnett did play, he was a shadow of himself, averaging only 9 points a game and never playing more than 18 minutes.
While the Celtics have had their share of much-publicized stumbles over the season, to their credit, they went a formidable 18-9 since the injury, including a win in against Cleveland and in San Antonio.
The Cavaliers are the number one seed and unquestioned favorites coming out of the East, as they have proven unbeatable at home and now have a viable sidekick for LeBron James in Mo Williams. While the Cavs had come so close to dethroning Boston in last year's suspense thriller of a Game 7, now it appears clear they have closed that narrow gap and then some. The 107-76 beatdown the Cavaliers administered on Boston made the necessary statement. LeBron and the Cavs are neither scared nor intimidated of the green jerseys. Without a healthy Kevin Garnett, King James can drive to the basket all he wants and get plenty of open threes for his teammates, thus the Celtics will not win a playoff game in Cleveland. For you math majors out there: that means they lose.
Before the C's can get to Cleveland, though, it appears obvious they will have to go through Disney World in round two, always a fun place to play until Dwight Howard sends your point-blank layup five rows into the seats. The Celtics are 0-for-2 against Orlando since the Garnett injury and were sorely outplayed both times. While the Howard-era Magic have yet to make a deep playoff run, they now appear undaunted and poised to make their mark in the East. Without a healthy Kevin Garnett, the league's self-proclaimed Superman will shatter backboards (after all, they're not even the 12-foot ones) in the low post with no one to stop him. Not even the home-court advantage will protect Boston from that mismatch.
Last, but not least, should the Celtics return to the promised land, they will most likely find a very angry Lakers team waiting for them. This Lakers team beat Boston twice this season with a healthy Garnett. Their entire season has been dedicated to erasing the memory of the green-and-white confetti that cruelly ushered the Lake Show out of Boston. Kobe and his team heard the complaints that they were too soft when it counted the most, and they responded with a noticeably more physical style of play in '09. This time, Game 6 and 7 would be played on the West Coast.
Without a healthy Kevin Garnett, the Celtics don't reach this round, although you cannot rule out a scenario in which he returns and then aggravates the injury later in the playoffs, as he has already had one failed return this year. Even with a healthy Garnett, the Lakers should have enough to knock off the Celts in six or seven games, although they would have honorably defended their title. Without K.G., though, I would call it an L.A. sweep with Kobe lifting the trophy in Boston.
The only playoff matchup I have not yet covered for the Celtics is their immediate one with the Chicago Bulls. I think just about all of you would understand my reasoning for that. With the talent Boston has even without Garnett, the Bulls are about as intimidating as a bus stop of grade school kids in the morning. It may even prove wise for the Celtics to consider keeping Garnett on the shelf for this first round if there are any kinks left to be worked out before there are bigger fish to fry in the later rounds. Chicago would be lucky to win two games in this series regardless of who's playing.
Three titanic teams lie between Beantown and their next title, casting large, ominous shadows. The play of No. 5 could very well be the difference between going out quick in the second round and a return trip to the finals, thus spoiling all the predictions going around this time of year. The fate of the NBA's Eastern Conference playoffs has come down to one simple question: how's the knee, Mr. Garnett?
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