With the draft approaching in two weeks, there will be 10-12 college stars looking to cash in on a huge market for potential game-changers for suffering NFL franchises. Players like Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith, Michael Crabtree, and others can expect to walk on stage in New York, don a cap, and be expected to be the key piece to the puzzle that will somehow lead to success for a team looking to get out of the first half of the draft for 2010.
Also to be expected are the countless hours of negotiations and mind-boggling numbers included in contracts that increase every year, placing a bulge against a club's salary cap and often infuriating sturdy veterans around the league. It's one of the bigger issues at hand with league owners, who last year opted out of the current collective bargaining agreement, which could set things up for a quandary in 2010 if no deal is reached.
The owners' main gripe is that salary concerns along with soaring construction and renovation costs leave clubs operating at much less of profit than ever. Since the state of economy has no preferential treatment to sports, this has put the proverbial "pinch" in the wallet of billionaires who are now looking to save money and cut costs. Rookie contracts, which have grown to enormous heights with ridiculous bonuses, have become a focal point in possible renegotiation in labor talks. Owners would like to set in place a rookie contract scale for those being drafted similar to what is done under the current NBA bargaining agreement, and after one's rookie contract has expired, the player can either make demands for larger contract with his current team or become a free agent for a contract of his liking. As one can imagine, this will be a huge hurdle to clear with the player's association.
A big stink was made about this last year when the top three picks of the 2008 draft received huge contracts, specifically Matt Ryan, who was taken third by the Falcons and received a six-year, $72 million dollar contract, $34.5 of it guaranteed. Ryan became the fourth highest paid player in the league behind Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Carson Palmer before he completed a pass. Guess he answered some questions when his first NFL pass was for a touchdown. Jake Long, the top overall pick who signed a five-year, $57.5 million dollar deal with the Dolphins, was a Pro Bowler in his rookie season, while Chris Long (five-year, $56.5 million) had a solid rookie season for the Rams.
It is very rare that you have the top players in the draft all produce. Veteran players, however, have a considerable beef with rookies being paid in the upper-echelon of players at their position without proving anything at the professional level — call it the "new guy" complex. Sure, rookies, especially high-profile first-round draft picks, are seen as investments that franchises hope that can give them a strong return on investment.
While the Longs and Ryan more than proved with their worth risk with great rewards, the reality is that most investments for teams don't flourish right away or in some cases at all. Consider: Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Cade McKnown, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Ryan Leaf — you get the picture. The failure rate on star college quarterbacks picked in the first round is amazing. Sure, most owners would love to find their franchise QB round three and after, but the gamble is taken in the first round on the belief that "this kid can't-miss." All of those guys missed — badly — and the teams that picked them were thrown off of course and picked, traded, or signed another QB four to seven seasons later. While "Matty Ice" and Joe Flacco of the Ravens seem to be exceptions to the rule, the old adage remains to be true: pick a QB in the first round, pay him big-time money, and hope he stays motivated to produce.
The Long boys should hope they don't fall into their respective bust categories at their positions. It really would pain an owner to spend a wad of cash on a big stiff of a lineman that can't bust a grape, let alone run block, pass protect, or be able to rush the passer. Mike Williams, the top offensive lineman taken in the 2002 draft by the Bills, was a serviceable run blocker, but never could polish his pass protection skills. Williams was out of Buffalo three years later, was signed and cut by Jacksonville, and has been out of the league since.
Anyone ever heard of Tony Mandarich? Most casual football fans won't, but most aficionados remember him being touted on the cover of Sports Illustrated before the draft in 1989 as "the greatest offensive lineman prospect ever" and was taken second overall by the Green Bay Packers. The very next pick in the '89 draft? A guy out of Oklahoma State named Barry Sanders. Andre Johnson was great at Penn State, but he was made inactive for the whole 1996 season after being drafted 30th overall by the Redskins. He was cut during the offseason and out of football by 1998. On the other side of the ball, it didn't pay for any team that selected busts like Erasmus James, Wendell Bryant, Andre Wadsworth, or even Steve Etman and Courtney Brown, who were once No. 1 overall picks and thought to be "sure things." Jonathan Sullivan, anyone? I don't think so.
A proposed NFL rookie salary cap prevents a couple of problems. Rookie pay could be based on a tiered earning structure, usually based over two years with a club option for a third and fourth year. This is similar to the NBA rookie that salary falls between $3 to $4 million per year over three years with club option of that third or fourth year. This solves the problem with rookies, while arriving with great fanfare, who are not sure-shots for success on the next level.
The rookie contract acts as a "try-out," if you will. A rookie knows his contract is guaranteed for a few years, but at much less of an amount than currently and has that time to make an impact or prove his value at the position. If he isn't happy or doesn't like the system and team feels likewise, he can always be free to shop his services elsewhere for a salvaged payday. While the payday may not be as enticing as the jaw-dropping numbers of today's rookie contracts, it can provide viable incentive for the player and flexibility for the ownership and the front office to keep or go after highly-touted free agents and veterans to provide stability on the field and in the locker room. Plus, it can relieve some pressure on a team's cap and save a couple of bucks in the owner's pocket or allow them to cut their losses on a bust.
Of course, the possibility remains that 2010 could be an uncapped year if there is no labor agreement met by March 2010. Then you could possibly see a drastic change and jump in the number of players declaring for the draft in 2010 should a labor agreement not be in place by January. We could also be looking at the possibility of the two most dreaded words in labor talks: work stoppage. With other issues on the table such as player union issues, retired player pension debates, and salary cap conditions, the "proposed" rookie pay-scale will be a hotly contested item at the bargaining table coming soon. If that idea doesn't work, I'm sure the college superstar who can't cut it at the next level won't mind the huge payday and few million bucks in his pockets for a couple of years, while owners use their checkbooks to wipe away those tears of frustration, or better yet, throws them wistfully into the fireplace.
Leave a Comment