At this time last season, the question that loomed over the Western Conference playoff race was, "is a team with 50 wins going to miss the playoffs?"
As the teams out West battle it out over the last two weeks of the regular season, the question this season isn't about who is or isn't getting in, but rather who is or isn't getting home court advantage?
Heading into play on Monday, there are just two and a half games that separate the number two seed San Antonio Spurs from the seventh-seeded New Orleans Hornets. That leaves six teams (Spurs, Rockets, Nuggets, Jazz, Trail Blazers, and Hornets) in a 10-game shootout for the numbers two, three, and four seeds, and the home-court advantage that goes along with them.
Last week's Starting Five focused on the Eastern Conference playoff race. And while the Fairness Doctrine may not necessarily apply to Sports Central, it surely applies to the Rotation.
This week's Starting Five takes a look at the Western Conference playoff race as we try to sort through the madness that is taking place on the left coast and figure out which three teams will win the coveted home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Starting Five
1. Once again, we know who's number one...
The Lakers' slight hiccup in Atlanta on Sunday means very little to them. After Tuesday's 18-point win in Oklahoma City, the Lakers clinched the best record in the Western Conference. The Cavs' home-friendly schedule the rest of the way means that it's going to be very tough for the Lakers to catch them for the best record in the league. The Lakers, unlike every other team in the West, know exactly where they stand going into the postseason.
This leaves Phil Jackson with an interesting coaching dilemma: with the top seed already locked up, should Uncle Phil rest his stars to get them well-rested for a deep playoff run?
On the one hand, Kobe Bryant has been an ironman for this team over the past two seasons. For just the second time in his career, Bryant played all 82 regular season games last season, followed by 21 playoff games, a stint with team USA in the Olympics, and has played the first 73 games this season. If anyone has earned a day off, it's him.
Meanwhile, the absence of Andrew Bynum has Pau Gasol playing just under his career high in minutes per game. Gasol has missed just one game for the Lakers this season, and he too is coming off an abbreviated offseason, having led Spain to the gold medal game in the Beijing Olympics. If there's a second player on this roster who has earned a day off, it's Gasol.
On the other hand, the Lakers have developed great chemistry over the first 73 games of the season. Is Jackson, who is as good at managing the game from a mental standpoint as he is with Xs and Os, willing to break the rhythm his team has spent the last six months creating for an off night or two for his best players?
My guess is that unless Kobe suffers some kind of injury (like the twisted ankle that sent him to the locker room early on Friday at New Jersey), expect to see him in uniform for each of the remaining nine Laker games as this teams tries to steamroll into the first round of the playoffs.
2. But who's number two?
If the Rotation were a magic 8 ball, the answer to this question would read, "ask again later." And in this case, it's not a complete cop out.
That's because, if you ask again later, the answer will most likely be different.
As of right now, the Spurs hold a half-game lead over both the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets. In theory, if certain tiebreak situations play out right, the Spurs could conceivably drop from second to fourth without even playing a game.
And while a head-to-head three-way matchup would be the easiest way to settle this logjam at the top, the scheduling gods have not been that kind to us. The Spurs don't play the Rockets or Nuggets any more this season, and the Rockets and Nuggets won't meet again, either.
That means that the number two seed in the West could go to the team with the easiest remaining schedule, in this case, Denver.
The Nuggets have eight games left, including five home games, and five games against teams below .500. Compare that to the Rockets (eight games remaining, five road games, only two games against sub .500 teams) and the Spurs (nine games left, five road games, and two back-to-backs that include travel between the first and second game) and it looks like Denver might have the inside track on the two-seed.
However, just to be safe, ask again later.
3. But wait, there's more!
It's not just a three-team race for the two seed. Portland, Utah, and New Orleans are all just two back in the loss column from San Antonio, and one back of Denver and Houston. The good news for these three teams: each of the three teams on the outside looking into the race for home-court advantage in the first round has at least two games remaining against the three teams that would currently host a first round playoff series.
At this point in the season, the only reliable way to make up ground on a team is to beat them head-to-head. With two games to make up and less than 10 games remaining, you can't count on other teams to beat the competition. If given an opportunity to hand a team a loss, you have to take advantage. The Blazers, Jazz, and Hornets will all have the opportunity to gain a game or two (depending on tiebreakers) with wins over the two, three, or four seeds between now and the end of the season.
The bad news for these three teams: they still have to play each other. Meaning even if they do win the games against the division leaders, there's still a chance that these three teams could all just beat up on each other and give up any ground that they may have gained in the first place.
4. So will anyone who currently has home court advantage lose it?
It doesn't seem likely. I think that the order of the three teams (San Antonio, Denver, and Houston) will finish is up in the air, but I can't see any of them falling back into the five seed.
The remaining schedules for Portland, Utah, or New Orleans are all as tough or tougher than the remaining schedule of the three teams they are chasing. They each have at least five games remaining against playoff teams, and almost unbelievably, all three teams have more road games remaining than home games.
Also, consider this. Houston and Denver both have winning percentages of .648. Each team has eight games left. If you apply the winning percentage to the remaining games, you can deduce that they are each likely to go at least 5-3 in their remaining games.
In order to catch them to even force a tie, the five, six, or seven seeds would have to go at least 6-2 or 7-2 depending on how many games they have remaining. Asking a team that plays mostly road games against mostly playoff teams to rattle off seven of nine is a pretty tall order, and I don't know that Portland, Utah, or New Orleans will do it.
5. The Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is the most overlooked team in the playoff picture. The Mavs still have a fighting chance to catch New Orleans, Utah, or Portland and avoid a dreaded first-round matchup against the Lakers.
Last week we talked about how poorly the Magic match up against the Pistons. Well, the same can be said about the Mavericks matching up against the Lakers.
If Dallas can't catch one of those three teams and finds itself in the eight spot, they can start setting tee times for the first week in May. They have lost their last six games to the Lakers and are just 3-16 against lifetime against the Lakers at the Staples Center.
Unless the Mavericks get hot in a hurry, it looks like we may only get four games worth of Mark Cuban's playoff antics in 2009.
In the Rotation: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder may currently reside in 12th place in the Western Conference standings at 20-53, but they still have a chance to make a big impact on the Western Conference playoff race.
Five of their remaining nine games are against Western Conference playoff teams. OKC has had their share of lottery luck in recent years, so don't expect this young and talented team to tank it at the end of the season in the hopes of a few extra lottery balls.
If a playoff team takes the Thunder lightly, look for Kevin Durant and company to try and play the role of spoiler in the Western Conference playoff race. Their five games against playoff teams is the most remaining out of any lottery team in the West, meaning they'll have plenty of opportunities to catch a good team off guard and potentially cost someone a critical playoff position.
Out of the Rotation: Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are just behind the Thunder as far as games remaining against playoff teams with four. The problem is, you never know which Warrior team is going to show up. And I mean that literally, not as a metaphor for inconsistency.
A combination of real injuries (Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins) and Don Nelson's (I'll be gentle) "experimental" new strategy of resting players for no good reason in an attempt to evaluate you players for the future means that every night the Warriors are trotting some mismatched collection of players.
The Warriors have lost four games in a row, all to Western Conference playoff teams by an average of 11.5 points per game, and don't seem to be in any kind of hurry to try to play winning basketball for the rest of the season. The Thunder strike me as a team posed as a threat to play the role of spoiler. The Warriors, as a team, look like they've just plain spoiled.
Inactive List: James Posey
The New Orleans Hornets had a problem last season in their second round seven-game slugfest with the Spurs: they completely lost focus. If you recall, David West completely lost his cool a few different times in that series and they didn't seem mentally strong enough in Game 7 to match San Antonio's intensity and playoff savvy.
Fast forward to this offseason, when the Hornets signed James Posey to a four-year, $25 million deal. He was supposed to be the veteran leader, a big shot taker and a big shot maker, and a guy who knows what it takes to win (he's played on two of the last three NBA champions).
Fast forward again to Friday night in New York, and Posey made possibly the biggest bonehead play of the NBA season. After being whistled for a loose ball foul, Posey fired the ball at the referee's feet and was immediately ejected from the game and later suspended for the following game, Sunday's matchup against the Spurs.
I understand that Posey was caught up in the moment of a close game, but that is just unacceptable. Any time you do anything the results in contact with an official, you can expect at least a one-game suspension.
The Hornets, who were at the time (and are currently still) playing without both Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler because of injury, need Posey now more than ever. They need someone (perhaps a veteran with championship experience?) to step and make big plays in the absence of two of their most important pieces.
Instead, the player that they brought in to be their glue guy off the bench, whose sole purpose on this team is to be around and step up in situations just like the one the Hornets find themselves in right now, is getting ejected form close games and getting suspended for critically important games in the finals weeks of the season.
The Hornets managed to win without Posey against the Spurs on Sunday, but the ejection/suspension could be an ominous sign for the Hornets, who are yet to prove that they are good enough mentally to compete with the upper echelon of the Western Conference in the playoffs.
Thanks to Posey's mental lapse this weekend, the Hornets' mental toughness problem looks like it may still need to be addressed in New Orleans.
Be sure to check back at Sports Central every Monday to see who cracks Scott Shepherd's Rotation as he breaks down what is going on around the NBA.
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