Toughest Region
Corrie Trouw: Midwest
Is it just me, or does it seem like all of the regions are fairly reasonable to their elite seeds? Most years, you can look at seeds 3-8 in one region and envision tough first and second weekend games for that region's No. 1 and 2. This year's crop of No. 3s (Syracuse, Missouri, Kansas, Villanova) looks like as weak a group at that level as I can remember. Remember, that 2003 Syracuse title-team was a No. 3, and they had Carmelo Anthony. I think 2009 Syracuse loses to the 2003 squad by 25.
But if you twisted my arm just a little bit, I'd have to say Louisville has the most formidable company in the Midwest region. Maybe not so much in the Cardinals' half of the region (though they could draw Ohio State in the second round in Dayton, just an hour from Columbus), but the bottom half features Final Four vets Tom Izzo, Bill Self, and Bob Huggins, not to mention USC and its stable of NBA talent. Heck, even the 3-14 matchup has some intrigue, as tournament rookie North Dakota State gets to play relatively close to home in Minneapolis against the defending champs, Kansas.
Andrew Jones: Midwest
Do you seriously see a matchup outside of Louisville vs. the play-in team and Michigan State vs. Robert Morris that you are absolutely confident in? Ohio State and Sienna can both give Louisville a run for their money. West Virginia and Dayton have shown they are quite dangerous and either could beat Kansas (if NDSU doesn't beat them first). Boston College has beaten top teams and USC is incredibly hot. What is honestly weak about this region are the two and three seeds. Michigan State is vulnerable, struggling last week against Minnesota and losing to Ohio State. Kansas is also vulnerable as they lost to Baylor. Is Baylor better than anybody in this entire region besides Robert Morris? I think Louisville will escape and make it to the Final Four, but it will not be easy.
Jonathan Lowe: South
From 1-9, this regional is the most "star-studded" as far as top 25 squads. You have the possible best team in the country (UNC), most important player (Blake Griffin of Oklahoma), and two smoking-hot teams (Syracuse and Gonzaga). Add in the athleticism of Illinois, Clemson, and LSU. Then throw in the defensive intensity of Arizona State and Butler. I could see one of five or six teams heading to Detroit out of this region.
Ross Lancaster: East
While I think the committee did a good job of balancing the regions, take a quick look at the top seeds in the Pitt-led region. After the Panthers who are probably second-favorites to win the national title after Louisville, there's Duke, a Villanova team that seemed to score at will in February and early March, and Xavier, who beat Missouri, Memphis, and LSU out of conference and made the Elite Eight last season.
Just lower than the protected seeds, there's a Florida State team that was criminally underrated until its ACC tourney run and a UCLA team that has one of the best offenses in the nation and has made three straight Final Fours. Of course, UCLA has a very tough first-round matchup with VCU. Unfortunately, the winner of that game will have to face Villanova in Philadelphia, barring a shocker by American.
Seth Doria: Midwest
Not only do you have the top overall seed in Louisville (Big East regular season and tournament champ), there's a former No. 1 ranked Wake Forest squad, a 12 seed in Arizona with two future first-round NBA draftees, a coach in Ohio State's Thad Matta who has never lost a first-round game, two of the top three non-Memphis mid-majors in RPI (Utah at No. 9 and Siena at No. 19), a West Virginia squad that beat Duke in the second round last year (and Pittsburgh in this year's Big East tournament), a Dayton team with wins over Marquette and Xavier on its resume, one of the best freshmen in the country in USC's DeMar DeRozen, a Boston College team that beat both Duke and North Carolina this year, the Big Ten regular season champ in Michigan State, and the Big 12 regular season champ (and defending national champ) in Kansas.
And if that wasn't enough, they have the highest average scorer to make the tournament this year in North Dakota State's Ben Woodside (22.8 ppg on 46 percent shooting and 43 percent from three).
Jean Neuberger: West
When it comes to this year's brackets, I'm impressed with the depth of the wild, wild West.
You start off with a UConn team that, despite losing Jerome Dyson, is still a monstrous challenge and a serious national title contender. Even then, UConn might have their hands full against a rugged, tough BYU squad or a speedy Texas A&M team. Then, as your second seed, you have Memphis, extremely talented, loaded with 31 wins and a massive chip on their shoulders for not getting a number one seed. The other NCAA team that's won 30 games is WAC champion Utah State, seeded 11th in this region. Throw in the tournament champions of the Big 10, Missouri Valley, and SEC, as well as the Pac-10 regular season champions, and you have a fantastic collection of very tough teams, least I forget the fastest 40 minutes in basketball today, Missouri, who won the Big 12 tournament. No doubt, whoever win the West will have climbed one heck of a mountain to get to Detroit.
Highest Profile Seed to Fall in First Round
Corrie Trouw: Washington
The Huskies seemed very pleased with themselves for winning a surprising Pac-10 regular season title. Rightfully so, but that translated into an uninspired showing against Arizona State in the conference tournament. Their matchup with Mississippi State will pit two of the country's best interior players, UW's Jon Brockman and MSU's Jarvis Varnado. If Varnado can negate Brockman, the game will be in the hands of the Huskies' guards on the outside, a place in which Washington has struggled. Lorenzo Romar's bunch only shot 34% behind the arc, and while the Huskies led their conference in scoring offense, they only shot 45.9% from the field (seventh in the Pac-10). This means that if the Bulldogs can slow down the pace and limit the Huskies' scoring opportunities, they'll have a strong chance to pull the upset.
Andrew Jones: Kansas
Yes, it's a bit crazy, I don't deny that, but I believe third-seeded Jayhawks will fall to North Dakota State. As I previously mentioned, Kansas lost to Baylor on a neutral court. Can they survive their opening round game which will hardly be on a neutral court? I can guarantee the entire state of North Dakota will make their way down Interstate 94 to the Metrodome (the only stadium in the world to host a World Series, a Super Bowl, and a Final Four). NDSU is quite dangerous. Ben Woodside has the potential to be the Stephen Curry of this tournament.
Jonathan Lowe: Wake Forest
There's really no logic in taking Wake Forest to lose their first round game to Cleveland State. The Demon Deacons went 11-5 in a tough ACC, are led by a talented duo in Jeff Teague and Al-Farouq Aminu, and were ranked number one at a point this season. The Vikings will try to slow down the pace with their athletic opponents. But the Horizon League tourney champs won't be timid. They have beaten Syracuse and Butler on the road (and came within a possession of beating the Bulldogs twice more).
Ross Lancaster: Illinois
I know, I know, I'm taking the easy way out by picking a 5-12 game in this spot, and not a top four seed. But I absolutely love Western Kentucky in this game. Admittedly, I could be biased because I attend a Sun Belt school (North Texas) and follow the conference intensely. However, this Western Kentucky team may be every bit the group that went to last year's Sweet 16.
Mind you, it's not a team that is as flashy or plays as fast as the bunch that was led by Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton. Both those players have moved on, but left a balanced group behind first-year coach Ken McDonald that includes Sergio Kerusch and Sun Belt Player of the Year, Orlando Mendez-Valdez. The questionable injury status of Illinois point guard Chester Frazier leads me to think that Western Kentucky might just be a superior team to the Illini.
Protected seeds that I fully expect to win, but will get all they want from the underdogs include Wake Forest (Cleveland State), Kansas (North Dakota State), and Syracuse (Stephen F. Austin).
Seth Doria: Xavier
Everything is setting up beautiful for the Portland State Vikings. They're playing relatively close to home in Boise (430 miles from Portland, compared to 1900+ miles from Cincinnati). They're not scared of playing anybody (lost to Washington by only one in Seattle, beat Gonzaga by seven on the Zags' home-court). They have a dominant lead guard in 5-foot-6 senior dynamo Jeremiah Dominguez. They led their league in steals, assists, turnover margin, and three-point field goals made per game at damn near 10 (third in the nation overall in three-point field goals made). The have two guys who are deadly from long range in Dominguez (87-of-199 for 44 percent) and Dominic Waters (60-of-130 for 46 percent). And they've won six in a row, so they have their mojo going.
Xavier, on the other hand, has lost two of three (to Richmond and Temple) and five of their last 10. They average more turnovers per game (15.0) than assists (13.5) and only two teams in the A-10 were worse in turnover margin. Only three teams were worse in assist-to-turnover ratio. Sophomore guard Dante Jackson leads the team in assists at 2.8, but he's no match for Dominguez. This team might resemble the Elight Eight squad from a year ago, but that was a team driven by Drew Lavender on the perimeter and Josh Duncan. Those guys are gone.
The Musketeers will have an advantage down low (as is usually the case in these kinds of games) and both teams are fairly well adept at shooting the deep-range bombs (Xavier makes a higher percentage, but in way fewer attempts). But Dominguez makes the difference and Portland State pulls off the Big Sky's first tournament win since 12 seed Montana took out Nevada in 2006.
Jean Neuberger Wake Forest
I've heard a lot of people giving Wake a run to the Final Four. However, the Deacons haven't been the same Wake team that was ranked at the top earlier this season. They've gone just 8-6 in their past 14 games, and they're running into a serious buzzsaw in Cleveland State. The Vikings won't be intimidated by Wake, having beaten Syracuse at the Carrier Dome earlier this season, and are as confident as they've ever been after taking down Butler to win the Horizon league tournament.
One thing I look for in a dangerous low seed is experience at the guard position; a floor general who will keep the team composed in the most hostile or pressure-packed environments. The Vikings have just that in Cedric Jackson. They have numerous players who can shoot the three, and have plenty of athleticism to hang with the Deacons. Everyone looks out for Butler, but don't be surprised if it's Cleveland State that makes tourney waves from the Horizon.
Best 5-12 Matchup
Corrie Trouw: Utah vs. Arizona
Yes, I know Wisconsin vs. Florida State has more BCS conference sex appeal (and who could forget their memorable 2008 Champs Sports Bowl, right?). But if you've seen the 'Sconnies play, you know that they would make a matchup with Jack Bauer seem pedestrian and slow.
No, I'll take the Utes and the Wildcats, but these aren't the normal roles for your usual 5-12 storyline. This time the power conference team with the sought-after recruits fills the underdog spot, and the off-the-radar Mountain West champ gets a nice, cushy seed. We've seen mid-major vs. mid-major in the 5-12 games (WKU over Drake last year), we've seen BCS vs. BCS (Villanova over Clemson last year), and of course the typical No. 12 mid-major vs. the No. 5 BCS (pretty much every year). But the last time a major conference No. 12 played a mid-major No. 5? That hasn't happened since Florida State upset TCU in 1998.
Look for a war in the paint, as Utah's Aussie national teamer Luke Nevill battles Arizona's front court beast Jordan Hill. Someone's going to have a double-double.
And I'm setting the over/under for Lute Olson/Rick Majerus references during the broadcast at 2.5.
Andrew Jones: Illinois vs. Western Kentucky
All of the 5-12 matchups are intriguing, but in the Hilltoppers we see a team that had proven last year that they can compete with anybody. From the 12 seed they beat Drake, then beat the No. 13 San Diego Toreros, then lost by only 10 to Final Four-bound UCLA. This regular season, they beat the now number one seed in the tournament Louisville. I fully expect the Hilltoppers to beat Illinois, then move on to defeat Gonzaga to finally wrestle with North Carolina in the Sweet 16.
I think this will be the most popular first-round upset in people's brackets, but do not think for a second that Illinois is not tough. Even though the Big Ten got seven teams into the tournament, I don't think many people expect any of those to be a contender for the Elite Eight outside of Michigan State. Part of the reason for this I believe is because of the Big Ten's success in recent years has been minimal, but the Fighting Illini only average 12 turnovers per game. When they shoot the ball well from behind the arc and at the free throw line, they are tough to beat.
Jonathan Lowe: Utah vs. Arizona
I think this may be the year of the 6-11 matchups, but a 5-12 game that should be fun is Utah vs. Arizona. The Utes ended up on top of the rugged Mountain West, while the Wildcats held their consecutive tourney streak alive by sliding into one of the last at-large spots. Arizona has a triple-headed monster in Jordan Hill, Nic Wise, and Chase Budinger that could be deadly if they get rolling. This could be an opportunity for the MWC to make a statement for legitimacy.
Ross Lancaster: Illinois vs. Western Kentucky
Seeing as how I have already talked a bit about my favorite 5-12 matchup this year, I figured it would be a good time to talk about those matchups in general. Mainly, other than the Illinois/Western Kentucky battle, I'm not all that excited by the seed pairing most look to upsets for every year (the 6-11s seem much better to me).
Arizona over Utah? Maybe, but Utah plays so much better as a team than the Wildcats and Arizona had its last quality win over a month ago. Florida State and Wisconsin is a game I expect to be close for a half and change, but the size of the Seminoles' front line and the play of Toney Douglas will pull forward in the end. Northern Iowa over Purdue is an upset pick I've seen in some circles, but Northern Iowa will try and limit possessions, something Purdue will be more than willing to do.
Seth Doria: Utah vs. Arizona
As an Arizona alum, I'll obviously be picking the Wildcats over the Utes, though a voice in the back of my mind tells me that's a sucker bet.
When playing well, Arizona can beat anybody, as evidenced by victories over Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington. They can also look like complete crap, as evidenced by their sleepwalking through their first-round game against Arizona State in the Pac-10 tournament.
Contrary to what you may have heard, Chase Budinger is not the leader of this team. Nic Wise is the point guard and the biggest determining factor in the team's success. If he's driving the lane, making shots and getting to the free-throw line, the Cats are usually good. If he doesn't, they aren't.
The second key for Arizona is Jordan Hill, one of the most nimble big men in the country and a likely top-five pick in June's NBA draft. His matchup against Utah center Luke Nevill could well be the best matchup of big men in the entire first round.
And then there's Budinger, one of the most maddening players to root for. If he's got his game, he can be a major factor. But he also invites teams to take him out of his game. And, once that happens, he doesn't show the mental toughness to take it back.
This game might as well be an 8-9 game. They both beat Gonzaga. They both lost to UNLV. Both Russ Pennell and Jim Boylen are making their first trip to the NCAA tournament as head men.
I'm taking Arizona because I'm a homer and I think Nic Wise is good enough to impose his will.
Jean Neuberger Utah vs. Arizona
Should Arizona have gotten into the tournament? That's the question of the week as the Wildcats get ready to face the Utes. The Wildcats have done a great job of handling the preseason drama from Lute Olsen's departure, and they've won on the strength of a superb frontcourt led by Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. They take on a Utah team whose attacked is two-pronged. 7-2 center Luke Nevill is the catalyst inside the paint, while Luka Drca leads the assault from behind the perimeter. Utah's Shaun Green is one of the best sixth men in America, and a deadly three-point shooter, as well.
This game will come down to two things. First, can Nevill slow down Budinger and Hill in the paint, forcing Arizona to go outside? And secondly, can Utah shoot well enough from behind the arc to allow Nevill some freedom inside? If both of those things happen, Utah wins easily. Otherwise, expect a good, close game between these two.
Most Intriguing First Round Game
Corrie Trouw: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
It might not be O.J. Mayo/Michael Beasley like we saw last year, but this will be an offense-lover's delight. The Cowboys were sixth in the county in points per game, and their top four scorers are all guards (that's right, all guards) averaging double-digits. On the flip side, only nine teams took more shots than the Vols this year, and UT averaged 78.5 points per game, good enough for 16th nationally. Let's just say neither of these teams have seen a shot they weren't itching to take. Take the over.
Andrew Jones: LSU vs. Butler
I believe both Butler and LSU got seeded rather low. I thought both were more in the 6-7 range, but regardless of all that, these two teams both lost games they should not have lost last week. I believe this will provide both teams with a bit of added inspiration as they move forward. I think LSU's losses may have been a bit detrimental to their confidence, seeing as they've lost three of their last four games. Mid-major teams always have something to prove when March comes around and I think Butler will prove it by smacking around LSU.
Jonathan Lowe: LSU vs. Butler
Trent Johnson strolled in Baton Rouge this season and turned LSU into the surprising regular-season champ of the SEC. Todd Lickliter continued the recent tradition that has made Butler a tournament staple. Now the two meet in the 8-9 contest of the loaded South Region. This should be a great matchup of LSU's small-tall punch (Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell) against the Bulldogs' tough team reputation. I also recommend watching out for Marquette against Utah State.
Ross Lancaster: Ohio State vs. Siena
Every year, there are first-round games that, on the surface, look like ways to solve the argument about top mid-majors v. middle-placed power conference teams. That is, until the game actually happens and whatever side the loser falls on forgets about that game. I feel that this is one of those games.
This is also a game that is a huge contrast in styles, with Ohio State as the grinding half-court team and Siena as the running, up-tempo side. If one side can play the game at its speed, it should win. But, if Ohio State wins a high-scoring game or Siena wins a grinder, we will know that one team was more worthy.
Seth Doria: Minnesota vs. Texas
Texas coach Rick Barnes has lost in the first round a full 50 percent of his NCAA tournament appearances (eight of 16), while Gophers coach Tubby Smith is 13-1 in his 14 tournament first rounds. That's a fairly big disparity.
Contrary to typical Tubbyball, the Gophers actually play better when the game is up tempo, which should match well with what Texas wants to do. All 10 of Minnesota's losses, and seven of Texas' 11 losses, came in games where they scored fewer than 70 points. On the other hand, the Gophers were 12-0 when scoring 70 or more. Texas was 15-3 when scoring 70 or more.
I'm probably going to take Minnesota here just because of the vast disparity in first round records between the two coaches, but I really have no idea who's going to win. I am fairly sure, though, that this will be a highly entertaining contest.
Jean Neuberger Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Plenty of orange and plenty of fire! Two very intense coaches in OSU's Travis Ford and Tennessee's Bruce Pearl should produce two very intense teams, making for a great first round matchup. The Cowboys struggled at the start, but have come on lately at the end of the season. They were impressive in their win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament, and one thing's for sure: they can really score at will. Eight times this season, OSU has scored more than 90 points. Tennessee, meanwhile, hasn't lived up to preseason expectations, but the Vols are a seasoned bunch with a lot of talent. Wayne Chism and Tyler Smith make for an intimidating frontcourt, and when J.P. Prince and Bobby Maze are on, the Vols can play with anyone. This matchup has "high-scoring instant classic" written all over it.
Who's This Year's Davidson or George Mason?
Corrie Trouw: Utah State
To quote Ron Burgundy after jumping into the grizzly bear pit, "I immediately regret this decision," but I'll stick with it anyway. The Aggies enter the tournament as the nation's top field-goal-percentage team (49.8%), my top-secret predicator of tournament success. Utah State's first round opponent, Marquette, is reeling after losing Dominic James, having lost five of their last six since his injury.
Should they upset the Golden Eagles, Utah State would likely face Missouri in the second round. The Tigers are an up-tempo, high volume offense (81.1 PPG), but their vulnerabilities play into the Aggies' strengths. If Utah State can hit some threes (39.8%, 15th nationally) and keep Mizzou in reach, free throws could help them seal the upset. The Tigers are ranked 11th in the Big 12 in free throw shooting (66.8%). That's the recipe for keeping Cinderella's slipper snugly on-foot into the second weekend.
Andrew Jones: Syracuse
Aside from Western Kentucky, who I've already covered, I'm going to go with the Orange. I call them a sleeper simply because I don't think many people are giving them much respect in the South with UNC and Oklahoma. I think Blake Griffin and Tyler Hansbrough are great players, but Syracuse averages more points per game than anybody in the Big East and they do it as a team with five players averaging more than 10 points per game. I think Syracuse has a very good chance at winning the South.
Jonathan Lowe: VCU
A lot of people look at Virginia Commonwealth as a team that can do some damage in the tourney. Count me among them. I think the draw sets up well for them. UCLA hasn't been as good as advertised defensively. I usually am a fan of Villanova, but for some reason, I think they are vulnerable this season. Duke goes as their perimeter shooting does. And Eric Maynor has stunned the college ranks before (the Rams stunned Duke in the '07 tourney). An 11-seed Colonial Conference team ... just call me nostalgic.
Ross Lancaster: Utah State
Before the brackets came out, I pledged to take whoever was playing Marquette in the first round. Yes, after the injury to Dominic James, the Golden Eagles still have Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews. However, Marquette basically only plays seven guys as a result and has only beaten St. John's since James went down. They will be taking on the Aggies, who would have been a strong contender to win a game against a full-strength higher seed.
Against Missouri, I expect Utah State to have a good shooting night. After all, the Aggies are the top team in the nation in field goal percentage. Utah State is a better defensive team that you've come to expect from the champion of the WAC, and can also beat you in a variety of ways on offense, even though Gary Wilkinson is the kingpin of the offense down low.
Seth Doria: Arizona State
People don't yet realize just how good Pac-10 Player of the Year James Harden is.
They will after they see him over the next few weeks.
Between Harden doing everything (20.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.2 apg), Jeff Pendergraph down low (14.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 66.5 percent from the field), the long-range shooting of Rihards Kuksiks (44 percent on 192 attempts) and the intelligence of Derek Glasser (8.5 ppg, 4.8 apg, 41.4 percent from three), ASU has everything you need to make a serious charge.
The Sun Devils will beat Temple, then Syracuse, then Oklahoma, then North Carolina.
Jean Neuberger: Western Kentucky
I really like the Hilltoppers to be this year's surprise team. WKU has all the ingredients necessary to be a true Cinderella team. First, they've got tournament experience, having reached the Sweet 16 last year. Second, they have strength in their backcourt, led by A.J. Slaughter and Sun Belt player of the year Orlando Mendez-Valdez. Third, Western has a big marquee win, taking down Louisville earlier this year.
In the first round, Western's backcourt should be able to attack a wounded Illinois team, who will probably be without Chester Frazier. Illinois is not an offensive juggernaut, so late in the game, if points are needed, look for the Hilltoppers to take command. Secondly, while Gonzaga is a challenge, Western's strength, athleticism, experience, coupled with all the pressure lying on Gonzaga's shoulders, could spell a huge upset. Don't be surprised if it's the Hilltoppers making a return trip to the Sweet 16.
Who Survives to the Final Four?
Corrie Trouw: Michigan State, UConn, Pittsburgh, North Carolina
Andrew Jones: Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Jonathan Lowe: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, Connecticut, Gonzaga
Ross Lancaster: Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga
Seth Doria: Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Arizona State
Jean Neuberger Louisville, Missouri, Pittsburgh, North Carolina
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