With so many conference championships going on this week, it's easy to lose focus on the few games that hold the most meaning. Sure, the Patriot League final between Holy Cross and American on Friday is interesting and worth a few hours of your television time. But it's not a huge impact game as far as the rest of the country is concerned. One team will win and make the bracket as a 14- or 15-seed. The other will not. Plain and simple.
But there are other games that serve as critical dominos in the dance before The Dance — call it the bubble shuffle.
Before we get to the list, a few notes from some of the non-BCS conferences:
St. Mary's may have gotten waxed by Gonzaga in the WCC title game, but the Gaels should still be fine. That Bracket Busters win over Utah State (RPI of 27) is a big positive.
The Horizon League title win by Cleveland State over Butler was a big blow for bubble teams elsewhere. Butler is in no matter what. And now some other borderline team is going to find themselves in the NIT as a result.
If Rhode Island and Dayton meet in the A-10 semis, the winner will get the conference's second bid (along with Xavier). Worst case for other bubble teams would be for URI or Dayton to reach the final, then lose to somebody who beat Xavier to get there. Temple did it last year and is in position to do it again.
Davidson (RPI of 69) is out after losing to the College of Charleston in the Southern semis.
I think the news will also be bad for Creighton (RPI of 39). The Selection Committee has shown no aversion to screwing over very good MVC teams that fall short in the conference tournament. Just ask Barry Hinson (though it's hard to feel bad for him considering he's an assistant to Bill Self at Kansas right now).
With that said...
Pac-10: Arizona State vs. Arizona and Southern California vs. California on Thursday
If Arizona had swept Cal and Stanford last week at McKale, the Wildcats would have reached 20 wins on the season and 10-8 in the Pac-10. That would have made them virtual locks. But they lost last Thursday to Cal and so now they stand at just 19-12, 9-9 in conference and a saddled with an RPI of just 52.
With victories this season over UCLA, Gonzaga, and Kansas, Arizona has the big wins. They have also avoided the horrible loss, with Washington State (RPI of 89) being the worst. Plus, the Selection Committee will likely give them the benefit of the doubt before snapping their 24-year streak of consecutive tournament.
(Should the streak play a factor? No. But there's something intrinsic in the sports ethos that you don't break historic streaks without absolutely having no choice. It's like bunting to break up a no-hitter when the game is out of reach. You just don't do it.)
With that said, if they lose to bitter rival ASU, which they have four times in a row, they would reach the committee at 19-13 and losers of five of their past six. Streak or no streak, that's a precarious position.
Unlike Arizona, USC (18-12, 9-9, 60) does not have the quality at the top of their resume. Their best wins came in a sweep of the Arizona schools back in January. They also have worse losses than the Wildcats, to Seton Hall (RPI of 100) and Oregon State (144), and have lost six of their last nine.
The Trojans absolutely have to beat Cal or they're definitely out. If they do win, they're probably going to need to win at least one more (likely against UCLA on Friday) to feel anywhere close to safe.
SEC: Kentucky vs. Ole Miss and Florida vs. Arkansas on Thursday, South Carolina vs. Georgia/Mississippi State winner and Tennessee vs. Alabama/Vanderbilt winner on Friday
God, the SEC is a mess.
Kentucky has lost four straight and eight of their past 11. They have a couple of nice neutral-court wins over West Virginia and Kansas State back in November, but that's about as good as it gets on the Wildcats' resume. Losing to Georgia at home last Wednesday ensures the Wildcats need to not only beat Ole Miss in the first round, but likely LSU in the second round and maybe even South Carolina, Georgia, or Mississippi State in the semis.
South Carolina looks to be pretty safe, but say Georgia were to beat Mississippi State in the first round, then take out the Gamecocks on Friday. Then you're looking at a team with an RPI in the 50s with a 1-5 record against RPI top 50 teams. Will the Selection Committee overlook their 275th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule just because they got to 22 wins?
If Vandy beats Alabama (who would have to get the auto bid to qualify), then takes out Tennessee, that might be enough. If they make the title game, they're in.
Florida was swept by Tennessee and, like everybody else in the SEC with the exception of the Vols, played a horrible non-conference schedule. The neutral-court win over Pac-10 champ Washington looks good, but they had nine wins over teams with RPI of 200 or worse, five of them 300 or worse. That kind of puts their 22-9 record in a different light. Lose a first-round game to Arkansas (RPI 142), and they're in deep trouble.
Big 12: Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State on Wednesday, Kansas State vs. Texas/Colorado winner on Thursday
Oklahoma State could have done itself a huge favor by beating Oklahoma in the season finale on Saturday, but even with the loss, they should be in fairly ok shape. They beat Texas and Kansas State and really don't have a killer loss on the resume (Baylor at RPI 75 the worst). Other than that, all of their losses were to RPI top 50 teams, with six of those to RPI top 25 teams. Lose to Iowa State (RPI 158), and that's a bubble-burster. Win and then lose to Oklahoma in the second round, they probably sneak in. Beat Iowa State and Oklahoma, and they're in no doubt.
Kansas State has wins over Missouri, Texas (road) and Texas A&M (road) on its resume, but no major non-conference wins, plus some pretty bad losses to Iowa (RPI 112) and Oregon (167). I'd put them in now, but a win over Texas (assuming the Longhorns don't lose to Colorado) would seal the deal.
ACC: Maryland vs. NC State and Boston College vs. Virginia on Thursday, North Carolina vs. Miami/Virginia Tech winner on Friday
Maryland did beat Big Ten champ Michigan State in non-conference play and upset ACC champ North Carolina a few weeks ago. But while those two wins are nice, they also lost to Morgan State at home and finished the regular season with a demoralizing loss to Virginia, putting them at just 7-9 in the ACC. Lose this game against NC State (just 6-10 in the ACC this year), and it could be the last in Gary Williams' career with the Terps.
As one of only two teams this year to beat both Duke and North Carolina, Boston College certainly has the top of the resume to make the field. Their only problem has been horrible lapses of concentration that resulted in losses to St. Louis (RPI 128) and Harvard (246). The Eagles ended up 21-10 and 9-7 in conference, which should be enough. But with an RPI of just 57, I don't think their profile can withstand a loss to 10-17 Virginia (RPI 109) in the first round.
Like Maryland, both Miami and Virginia Tech finished below .500 in ACC play at 7-9. The loser of this game will be eliminated from any bubble conversation. The winner probably has to beat North Carolina on Friday to stand a shot. Good luck.
Big East: Providence vs. DePaul and West Virginia vs. Notre Dame on Wednesday
Providence did finally break through against the top teams in the league by beating Pittsburgh (along with an earlier win over Syracuse). And though none of their losses are top teams with sub-100 RPI, they're record against teams with RPI in the top 50 is just 2-8. If they were to lose to DePaul, who went 0-18 in the Big East this season, that would leave them at just 18-13. With an RPI in the 70s, that won't be near enough.
Notre Dame has dug itself a big hole, but has the road in front of them to make a charge. First they got past Rutgers on Tuesday. Now they have a chance to make a statement against the Mountaineers, who beat them by nine in Morgantown in their only meeting this season. Win that one and they probably get a shot at one of the Big Four (UConn, Louisville, Pitt, and Villanova). (Okay, call it the Big Three Plus One.)
Big Ten: Minnesota vs. Northwestern on Thursday, Illinois vs. Michigan/Iowa winner and Purdue vs. Penn State/Indiana winner on Friday
Minnesota was looking golden after starting 16-1 and 4-1 in the Big Ten with wins over Louisville, Ohio State, and Wisconsin under its belt. But once the grind of the conference season started wearing on the young Gophers, their performance deteriorated. Now, after losing six of their last 10, including a sweep by Michigan and a loss to fellow Big Ten bubble player Penn State, Minnesota absolutely has to have this game against Northwestern. That would put them at 22-9 with a shot to make a statement against top seed Michigan State.
Michigan has a couple of big wins over UCLA and Duke on the resume, but they suffered a fairly damaging streak of losing seven of nine in January and February. Granted, all but one of those losses were to RPI top 50 clubs, but they count just the same. The sweep over Minnesota, plus a recent win over Purdue, set up John Beilein's crew in fairly decent shape. But they absolutely have to beat Iowa in their first-round game on Thursday. A win over the Illini in the second round on Friday would seal the bid.
With a sweep of Illinois and splits with Michigan State and Purdue, Penn State has the conference wins to be firmly on the bubble. Their trouble is that they have absolutely nothing on their non-conference resume to brag about. They only played two games against RPI top 100 out of conference, and they lost both of them, to No. 65 Rhode Island and No. 40 Temple.
The Nittany Lions probably could have sown up a spot if they had beaten Iowa in the regular-season finale, but the double-overtime loss cost them a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament and puts them in a more precarious position. If they lose to Indiana on Thursday, they're out. Beat Indiana and they'll get Purdue in the second round. Beat Purdue and they're in no problem. Lose to the Boilermakers, and there are going to be some sleepless nights waiting for Sunday.
Mountain West: San Diego State vs. UNLV on Thursday, Utah vs. New Mexico on Friday (only if both win their first games, Utah vs. TCU and New Mexico vs. Wyoming)
The regular season ended with five teams with 20 or more wins: BYU (24-6, 12-4 MWC, 21 RPI), Utah (21-9, 12-4, 11), New Mexico (21-10, 12-4, 58), San Diego State (21-8, 11-5, 43), and UNLV (21-9, 9-7, 55).
The conference is getting at least two bids, with a chance at three. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Mountain West with four: BYU, New Mexico, Utah, and UNLV. Personally, I think that's high. Then again, I don't wear a fantastic toupee.
Regardless, the Mountain West Tournament looks to be a very compelling one. Of all the teams, BYU is the only one who could withstand an early loss and still make the NCAA tournament field (maybe Utah with that RPI). The San Diego State/UNLV game on Thursday will be an elimination game. New Mexico would have to make the finals.
Leave a Comment