I have been filling out NCAA tournament brackets for 20 years and I'm always amazed how many surprises there are year in and year out. It truly is one of the most unpredictable events in all of sports. Those first four days of the tournament are four of the best days of my entire year. Brackets are not solidified yet, but here's a look at who will potentially represent each conference, focusing especially on the mid-majors and who actually has some potential to make it past the first weekend.
American East - 1
Binghamton
The Bearcats of Binghamton have already beaten Vermont twice, look for them to have the upper hand and make the tournament as at 13-16 seed, but don't expect any wins.
Mid-American - 1
Buffalo
This conference is usually represented by Kent State or Miami University (Ohio), but Buffalo has the upper hand currently. However, three of their final four regular season games are against teams that are only one game behind them in the division (Akron, Miami U, and Kent State). It could be a tough road for the Bulls. Look out for the Golden Flashes, though, they're on a seven-game winning streak and could be a force to cause an upset from a 13-15-seed (if they make the tournament).
Atlantic 10 - 2
Dayton and Xavier
The Atlantic 10 has two great teams in Dayton and Xavier. True, Xavier has been waffling lately, but they still should make the tournament as a 6- or 7-seed. Dayton is a team I'd look for to make a run in the tournament. If they can stay out of an 8- or 9-seed, expect them to make the Sweet 16.
I am a bit uncertain of Temple and Rhode Island. They have shots at tournament spots, but they'd have to steal a spot from the Big 10, Big East, or ACC and that just seems unlikely. If Temple can finish strong, they have a decent shot.
Mid-Eastern Athletic - 1
Morgan State
Nobody else looks to be challenging the Bears for their spot, but they won't be a memorable tournament entry. One and done for Morgan State from the bottom of the bracket.
Atlantic Coast - 7
North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Boston College
The ACC looks poised to rule the tournament alongside the Big East. I'd expect at least one (if not two) in the Final Four and five in the Sweet 16, but I honestly don't see the champion emerging from the ACC. Expect an early exit from Duke and Boston College.
Missouri Valley - 1
Creighton
The Bluejays have to hold off Northern Iowa and Illinois State and they should be a solid 12-14-seed, but no miracles for Creighton. Their only amazing win came against Dayton in December.
Mountain West - 3
Utah, Brigham Young, and UNLV
It's a bold move putting all three in the tournament, but BYU's losses have only been to quality teams. UNLV has beaten Arizona and Louisville and had the upper hand on BYU and Utah the first time around. If anybody will be left out, it will be Utah. They play both BYU and UNLV in the next week. We'll see who holds up.
Atlantic Sun - 1
Belmont
Another one-and-done from the bottom of the bracket.
Northeast - 1
Robert Morris
Nothing too impressive from Robert Morris (or anybody else in the Northeast Conference), a one-and-done to be sure.
Big 12 - 6
Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas State
Definitely some bubble teams here, but the top three have looked great lately. Missouri is obviously the biggest surprise and Oklahoma is a real contender for a national championship. If Texas, Nebraska, or Kansas State makes the tournament, expect early exits at the expense of mid-majors.
Big East - 7
UConn, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, and West Virginia
At one point, it looked as though the Big East would post nine or even 10 teams in the tournament, but the excessive downfall of Georgetown and Notre Dame has led to any more than seven being unlikely. What's amazing is despite the downfall of some, the Big East could very well have five teams in the Sweet 16 and I would venture to guess they'll post the NCAA champion in one of those Sweet 16 teams. I'll go with Pitt.
Ohio Valley - 1
Tennessee-Martin
The Skyhawks (one of the better mascot names in the NCAA) looks poised to make the tournament with one of the greatest players in the country in Lester Hudson, who became the first player in Division I history to record a quadruple-double and he could very well be the type of guy to help a 14- or 15-seed pull off a huge upset in the tournament.
Pac-10 - 5
Washington, California, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State
The Pac-10 doesn't really have any amazing teams headlining the charts this year. I'd expect lots of early exits from them with Arizona State being the only team to make the Sweet 16 and perhaps not even them. It's a very poor year for the Pac-10.
Big Sky - 1
Weber State
The Wildcats have been nearly the perennial entrant from the Big Sky. No great expectations on this team, though; they have no quality wins beyond their own conference.
Patriot League - 1
American University
Another one-and-done.
Big South - 1
Radford
Though Radford got off to an awful start, losing eight of its first 11 games, they've won eight straight and could enter the tournament the largest win streak in the entire NCAA (provided Memphis loses).
SEC - 5
South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and LSU
The SEC seems to be filled with bubble teams. There are no real powerhouses in the conference and I'd be surprised if they post a team with a seed better than a 6. And amazingly, it's possible that not a single team from the SEC will make it past the first weekend.
Big Ten - 6
Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State
The Big Ten is another conference filled with bubble teams. They get a bad rap because they don't have the high scores that the Big East and ACC post, but they should still post six or seven teams in the tournament. The Golden Gophers seem to be sliding a bit and the Badgers seem to be climbing. The Big Ten Tournament should give us a better idea of which teams will be included and which will be left out. This conference really is just a step away from joining the ACC and the Big East as a truly dominant conference. Hopefully, we'll see a lot of players stay in school and continue the upswing.
Southern - 1
Davidson
Really a no-brainer on them being the representative from the Southern Conference. Stephen Curry had 20 points in his comeback against Butler on Saturday in a losing effort, but looked pretty cold. I'd expect him to be at the top of his game by tournament time, poised to have another amazing tournament. Could this be the year Davidson screams into the Final Four?
Big West - 1
Cal State Northridge
Whoever makes it into the tournament from the Big West will probably have to pass the play-in game.
Southland - 1
Stephen F. Austin
And here we are at another one-and-done.
Colonial Athletic Association - 1
George Mason
The Patriots get the nod over Virginia Commonwealth. If there is a team that has a little bit of history for the upset, it is George Mason, but I'm not placing them past the first round in my bracket.
Conference USA - 1
Memphis
It is crazy to think that Conference USA may only have one team in the tournament and that team may be a No. 1 seed, but it is quite possible. It most certainly looks likely if Memphis continues their win streak. But if UAB or Houston can beat the Tigers and break their streak, they may sneak into the tournament.
Southwestern Athletic - 1
Alabama State
Losing seven of their first nine, the Hornets have come on strong in their conference schedule, only losing one game in the past 14. Even so, I don't expect a tournament win out of them.
Summit League - 1
North Dakota State
The Bison have one of the best one-two punches in the country in Ben Woodside and Brett Winkelman. They are both fifth-year seniors that have taken the Bison to a beautiful level that will put them in the NCAA tournament for the first time in their history. They'd be my pick for a real unknown upsetting a big name team early.
Sun Belt - 1
Arkansas-Little Rock
Can you say ... one-and-done?
Horizon - 1
Butler
Butler avoided three-loss week by beating Davidson on Saturday, but chances are they'll drop to a 7-seed, which might be a dangerous place for them.
West Coast - 2
Gonzaga and Saint Mary's
Gonzaga is a perennial mid-major contender that could go places again this tournament. Saint Mary's is a more interesting story. Without Patrick Mills, they struggle to produce and they almost beat Gonzaga without him, so if he can make it back and be 100% for the tournament, Saint Mary's would be my pick to bust up lots of brackets.
Ivy League - 1
Cornell
The Big Red are the only team in the Ivy League even above .500, so don't expect anything amazing out of this conference of brainiacs for quite a few years.
Metro Atlantic - 1
Sienna
The Saints don't have any big-time wins this season, but they've played tough against a number of big name schools including Pitt, Tennessee, and Kansas, so they could find their way to an upset.
Western Athletic - 1
Utah State
The Aggies snuck into the Coach's Poll Top 25 last week, but they lost twice in eight days. Their home win streak continues, but that means pretty much nothing in the NCAA tournament. Despite a miraculous season, I'm not giving them a tournament win. They will be a popular pick perhaps even for the Sweet 16, but I don't see it happening.
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