Five Quick Hits
* I'm excited about the Super Bowl, but I am bummed that we never got see Titans/Giants.
* For those of you interested in NFL coaching trees, Buddy Ryan's has grown enormously this month. Mike Singletary (SF), Jim Schwartz (DET), and Rex Ryan (NYJ) are all on Ryan's tree.
* This may sound odd, but the celebrated Bill Walsh Tree is nearly dead, having lost four coaches in the last year: Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren, Jon Gruden, and Scott Linehan. Walsh's legacy, at this point, is basically the Andy Reid Tree.
* I have reached a definitive conclusion: don't rest your starters in Week 17. Pittsburgh won its last game 31-0. The Cardinals, with their seed already secured, played hard to recapture momentum before the playoffs. Guess it worked. Great call by Ken Whisenhunt.
* My favorite Super Bowl story-line: Whisenhunt, the former Pittsburgh assistant who was passed over for their head coaching job, going up against his old team.
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Conference Championship Roundups
Eagles @ Cardinals
Last week, I joked that losing in the NFC Championship Game is an Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb tradition. Well, the tradition continues. The Eagles have been to five NFC title games in the last eight years, which is an incredible record of success, but they're 1-4 in those games, which is enormously disappointing, and raises legitimate questions about their big-game capabilities.
Donovan was okay in this game. He was rocky in the first half, but he's a slow starter, and he's streaky. He got hot in the second half, and finished with good numbers: 375 yards, 3 TD, INT, 97.4 rating. The Eagles' running game was a bigger problem. We often criticize Andy Reid for passing too much, but the ground game was so ineffective in the first quarter that I don't blame Reid for getting away from it. For most of the second half, they had to pass anyway, just to catch up before time ran out.
Philadelphia's problems on Sunday were less about McNabb and the offense than the normally stout defense, which got burned — like the Falcons and Panthers before them — by Larry Fitzgerald. At what point does this guy start drawing consistent double-teams? Shouldn't you stop the guy who is carving up your defense, rather than worrying about what other guys might do? Double-team him. Triple-team him, if that's what it takes. Make them prove they can win another way. The Eagles allowed an average of 18 points per game this season. They held the Vikings and Giants to a combined 25 points in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Cardinals hit them for 32, including 3 touchdowns by Fitzgerald.
Now, obviously Arizona deserves some credit here, too. The last time someone scored 30 points against the Eagles was the week before Thanksgiving. The keys for Arizona were superb pass-blocking, Fitzgerald, and turnovers. Todd Haley's play-calling was fantastic, mixing the run and the pass, and utilizing pre-snap motion that seemed to confuse the Eagle defense. The Eagles seemed off-balance throughout the first half. Fitzgerald looks unstoppable. It is not evident that anyone can cover him one-on-one right now. He needs to be double-teamed, redirected, frustrated.
Arizona's defense continues to make its living with turnovers. During the playoffs, the team has created 12 turnovers — 4 per game! — and is +9. The difference in this game was probably pass protection. McNabb was under consistent pressure, whereas Kurt Warner faced almost none. The Cardinals' coaching staff won this game.
Ravens @ Steelers
Let's start with Willis McGahee. He's going to be okay. With just 3:29 left in the game, McGahee was injured on a brutal (but not malicious or illegal) hit from Ryan Clark. Both players were knocked out, but Clark walked off the field a couple minutes later; McGahee was carried out on a stretcher and taken to the hospital. He didn't give a thumbs up on his way out, but he did grasp Ed Reed's hand just before the stretcher started rolling. McGahee has a rough history with injuries. The destruction of his knee in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl was one of the most awful-looking football injuries I have ever seen.
Another play that deserves special mention is the one that probably sealed the game, Troy Polamalu's interception return for a touchdown a minute earlier, putting the Steelers up by nine. Pittsburgh only used one down lineman on the play. The other ten players were all lined up as linebackers or DBs. The one lineman, Aaron Smith, didn't even rush on the play; he dropped into coverage. The Steelers used a four-man rush, but it was a confusing, unpredictable four-man rush against a rookie quarterback who was struggling. Brilliant call in that situation.
Pittsburgh went 3-0 against the Ravens this year. A while back some moron started the rumor that it's really hard to beat a team three times in the same season, but when one team sweeps an opponent during the regular season, and they meet for a third time in the playoffs, the previous winner is 12-7 (since 1970). I don't think a .632 winning percentage backs up the "really hard" premise.
The Crystal Ball
Super Bowl XLIII: Cardinals vs. Steelers
Tampa, Florida
This is probably the most stark offense-vs.-defense matchup in Super Bowl history. The Cardinals had a top-five offense, while the Steelers ranked in the bottom half of every major offensive category. Arizona had a lousy defense during the regular season, while the Steelers had the league's best.
If you add a team's rank in points scored, yards gained, yards per rush, and passer rating, the Cardinals are ahead by 47 total ranks on offense, and the Steelers are ahead by an incredible 83 total ranks on defense, for a combined difference of 130. The much-celebrated 2002 Super Bowl, featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (defense) and the Oakland Raiders (offense), only had a total difference of 84.
All of this bodes well for Pittsburgh, because in recent Super Bowl history, the team with the better defense usually wins.
If the Cardinals are going to pull off the upset, they need to play like they have in the postseason, not the regular season. They need Fitzgerald to get 100 yards and a touchdown, they need about 60 rushing yards from Edgerrin James, and most importantly, they need to win the turnover battle.
All of that will be harder against Pittsburgh than against any of their previous opponents, but the turnovers in particular could be a problem. With all due respect to Philadelphia, which had a great defense this season, the Cardinals haven't faced a defense like Pittsburgh's all year. If they only commit one turnover, that's a small victory right there. The offensive line must give Warner the same kind of protection he got against the Eagles.
For Pittsburgh, the strategy is to let the defense win the game. The offense can't do anything stupid. Protect Big Ben, run a lot, and don't turn it over. They'll need a big play at some point (probably from Santonio Holmes), but there's no need to force it. Ball protection is the top priority, and the burden will fall on the defense to pressure Warner, contain James, and shut down Fitzgerald.
I believe the Steelers should double-team Fitzgerald from the first play. In these playoffs, he has 54% of Arizona's receiving yardage (419 yards), and half of the team's offensive touchdowns. He's averaging 140 yards and 2 TDs! The team's other receivers have been conspicuously quiet. A smart defense would see what the Cardinals can do without him. Edgerrin James has been effective this postseason, but the Cardinals aren't going to beat you with Edge. They beat you with Fitzgerald.
If Anquan Boldin or Steve Breaston starts carving up the defense, they can make adjustments. But all postseason long, Warner has been looking for Fitzgerald, and it makes sense to take that option away. Force Arizona to make the first adjustment. If the Steelers can somehow combine shut-down defense on Fitz, honest coverage of the other receivers, and a pass-rush on Warner, they will probably win this game by double-digits.
I have picked against the Cardinals for three weeks in a row, but I'm switching now. I think Arizona will win Super Bowl XLIII. On paper, it's a ridiculous choice. The Steelers are favored by seven, for good reasons. They beat the Ravens pretty easily, while the Cardinals barely got by the Eagles. The Steelers were much better during the regular season, and their defense could give Arizona nightmares.
But I think the Cardinals may have an edge in Whisenhunt and assistant HC Russ Grimm. They coached together in Pittsburgh for six years, and know the personnel on that team. Additionally, Hines Ward, the MVP of Super Bowl XL, may be limited or unable to play. Most of all, though, the Cardinals just keep proving people wrong. They don't need to be better all game, they just need a few big plays. A 65-yard touchdown pass here, a sack-fumble there, and Arizona is in business. If they play the way have all postseason, this is going to be a very good game.
The Cardinals' secret weapon is DT Darnell Dockett, who had a quiet game against Philadelphia, but came up huge against the Falcons and Panthers. Dockett is one of the best pass-rushing DTs in the league, a guy who specializes in penetrating the offensive line and disrupting plays in the backfield. The Cardinals need him to have a big game in Tampa, and I believe he'll do it.
Cardinals 24, Steelers 20
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