If change is the new theme of 2009, college basketball has been years ahead of its time.
North Carolina was supposed to be unbeatable, yet the Tar Heels now stand 0-2 in ACC play. Gonzaga was slated as a serious Final Four contender, but the Zags lost three in a row and vanished from the national stage. Then there's the team Gonzaga's beaten twice, Tennessee, who was sitting in the top 10 before the season started, but is also no longer to be found in the polls.
Change is so commonplace in college hoops that it's a surprise for there to be no surprises. Thankfully, though, come March, everything gets settled, which can shift our focus from the national scale to the conference scale. Who will be the teams to triumph in conference play, and earn those coveted invites to the Big Dance? It might be early, but here's how I see the college basketball landscape looking.
ACC
The title should stay within the state of North Carolina, but the team to beat isn't on Tobacco Road. How about those Demon Deacons of Wake Forest? Jeff Teague is playing at All-American levels, and it's Wake that sits at 14-0 right now in the conference. Why do I like Wake? Besides Teague, you have three other starters averaging double digits in points. Wake averages 9 steals and almost 6 blocks a game. Strong defense, capped with great shooting, makes Wake the team to watch.
Others to watch: Duke, of course, is loaded, and oh, did we forget Psycho T is still tearing it up at North Carolina? And this year, it looks as if the usual quick start of Clemson has some merit to it. The ACC is officially back in business.
Big Ten
It looks like another banner year for Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans. MSU jumped to a quick 2-0 start in conference play, and though their collapse against North Carolina is duly noted, their win over Kansas suggests they are getting stronger as the schedule progresses, a staple of an Izzo-led ballclub. F Raymar Morgan is a force, leading the team in points and rebounds. However, there are two things to watch for with State. One is their ability to handle the ball. The Spartans average just 13 turnovers and have a solid 1.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Second, Michigan State shoots just over 40 percent as a team from behind the arc. Streaky? After 15 games, I call that consistently scorching.
Others to watch: Obviously, Michigan is better on the hardcourt than the gridiron, and should be considered in the Big Dance field, but for a quiet contender, I like what Bruce Weber has done at Illinois. The Illini have a couple of strong guards in Trent Meacham and Demetri McCamey, and guard play in the Big 10 is essential.
Big 12
Never count out Kansas. Never. Having said that, the favorite in my mind is Oklahoma. Blake Griffin has been a force inside for the Sooners, which has freed up Tony Crocker and Willie Warren to maximize their three-point sharpshooting. The Sooners have the ability to run, yet also know how to win games playing half-court. Their ability to adapt to the style of the game makes them a name to watch in March.
Others to watch: I can't say it enough, you never count out the Jayhawks. No question, Texas is a loaded team, but it is clear in the start that their fate lies in the hands of A.J. Abrams. For darkhorse specials, look at Scott Drew's Baylor program, as well as what Doc Sadler's doing at Nebraska. Both of those teams have potential to make some serious noise in the conference.
Big East
Too many good teams in this conference, but until someone shows me they can manhandle Pitt, I'm sticking with the Panthers. Pitt's frontcourt of Sam Young and DeJuan Blair is solid, but the main reason why Pitt wins is that the Panthers simply do not beat themselves. They shoot well, don't turn over the ball that much and don't get into foul trouble. Pitt wins the old-fashioned way: solid defense with enough offense to finish opponents off. For someone to beat Pitt, they have to have all cylinders firing. It can happen, but it's just rare, which is why Pitt is the team is the beat.
Others to watch: Too many good teams to talk about, so I'll just name them: Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova ... and oh yeah, did I mention UConn?
SEC
Very hard to guess here. No team is in the Top 25. Arkansas has the most votes, and with their resume wins over Oklahoma and Texas, one would have to pencil in the Razorbacks as Big Dance material. However, their collapse at home against Mississippi State raises questions and reminds us of how young that program is. Nevertheless, give John Pelphrey tremendous credit for what's he already done in Fayetteville. So for now, let's take the safe route and pick Tennessee. Chris Lofton is gone, but the Vols have plenty of talent in the frontcourt to be the aggressors on the court. And no matter the sport, in the SEC, the physical, aggressive teams win.
Others to watch: Tennessee and Arkansas have the best paths to the Dance, with Kentucky not far behind. The Wildcats seem to be in sync right now. And as long as Ronald Steele is around, watch Alabama. LSU is a sleeper, and don't forget Mississippi State. They play four guards with monster Jarvis Varnado in the middle, but if MSU is able to keep the tempo fast, they're tough to beat.
Pac-10
Someone in California will claim the title, and though Mike Montgomery's done a great job with Cal right now, I'm going with UCLA until proven otherwise. It always helps to have a veteran backcourt, and the Bruins have Darren Collison and Josh Shipp running the show. They've been through about as many wars as you can imagine, so in the tough games in conference play, when it comes down to the last five minutes, who would you trust to handle their teams the best in that level of pressure? Give Ben Howland his due, as well. He's kept the Bruins in the national spotlight, and though Bruin basketball isn't as dominant in the Pac-10 as USC football, UCLA has still been the team to beat since Howland paced the bench.
Others to watch: No doubt California is a tough March out. I also like Herb Sendek's Arizona State squad. Sendek is a coach that has always preached tough defense, and though his offense hasn't clicked every game, you can always count on a few upsets from the Sun Devils with their smothering defensive attack.
Cinderella Specials (The Early Edition)
VMI is 6-0 in the Big South and 14-2 overall, with a win at Kentucky on their resume. The Keydets can run teams out of the gym. North Dakota State is the rising power in the Summit League, and Ben Woodside is a name worth talking about on the Bison squad. Saint Mary's (15-1, 2-0) could be the team to end Gonzaga's WCC reign. And I love teams from the Missouri Valley, so keep some eyes out on Drake and Illinois State, who features a quiet star in Osiris Eldridge.
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