NFL Divisional Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* The Associated Press released its annual all-pro team this week. Most of the first-team selections make sense, but some of the second-team picks are really weird. I don't know who these people are that vote for Walter Jones and Chris Samuels every year.

* Worst first-team pick: Le'Ron McClain at fullback. He's primarily a tailback. All my own choices are online at SC's 2008 NFL All-Pro Team.

* The Hall of Fame has announced this year's finalists, and it's a very strong class. My favorites are Dermontti Dawson, Bob Hayes, Claude Humphrey, Shannon Sharpe, Bruce Smith, and Rod Woodson.

* The Tennessee Titans looked awfully dangerous on Saturday. If they were in the NFC, they'd play in Super Bowl XLIII.

* Hey, CBS: 15-yard penalties are important. SHOW THEM.

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Divisional Roundups

Ravens @ Titans

Dan Dierdorf summed this up about as well as possible: "For the Titans, it's pretty simple — turnovers, penalties, and the loss of Chris Johnson in the second half."

Tennessee committed three turnovers in scoring position, and even a field goal on any one of them likely would have meant overtime. You could see several Titans carrying the ball loosely, and it seems clear that ball security is something this team will need to work on next season.

During the game, the Titans were flagged for 12 penalties worth 89 yards. There were a lot of fouls called, and the Ravens also had 40 yards in penalties, but that 49-yard difference is a really big deal in a close game. Tennessee drew three flags for unnecessary roughness.

Turnovers were the critical difference in this game, but perhaps nothing was more obvious than the loss of Chris Johnson with an ankle injury that kept him out of the second half. Johnson was easily the most explosive play-maker (on either team) in the first half, but LenDale White was ineffective in relief, and the offense suffered noticeably in Johnson's absence.

It seems like whenever a team has a dominant first half that doesn't show on the scoreboard, that team is in trouble. Against a good opponent, you have to capitalize on opportunities, and Tennessee didn't do that. After doing a real number on Baltimore's defense in the first half — 256 yards, 18:47 time of possession — the Titans went into the locker room tied at 7.

What the Ravens have done exceptionally this postseason — and more generally, for most of the last year — is make the most of their opportunities. If there's a pass to be intercepted or a fumble to be recovered, the Ravens get it. This team simply doesn't drop interceptions, plus they cause a lot of fumbles, and they're always looking to score on the runback. Baltimore is +7 in turnovers during the playoffs.

Credit is also due to Flacco and his offensive teammates, who avoided the big mistake this weekend. And how great is Derrick Mason? He plays in a system where he's never going to have big numbers, but Mason, who turns 35 this week, was a difference-maker on Saturday, and he's one of the 10 best wide receivers in the NFL.

Cardinals @ Panthers

In Week 17, I suggested three potential weaknesses for Carolina: "Jake Delhomme, who has played well recently but is prone to occasional very bad games; a suddenly porous defense, which has allowed more than 30 points in four of the last six weeks; and Giants Stadium, the only place Carolina might have a road game before the Super Bowl." Two out of three ain't bad.

I will freely admit that I didn't see the Panthers losing at home on Saturday. The Cardinals overcame the loss of Anquan Boldin, their East Coast road trip struggles, and Carolina's 8-0 mark at home. That's pretty heroic, and it was not something a lot of people expected. The Cardinals' defense is the story of this postseason.

Arizona's offense, even without Boldin, was also in fine form. Larry Fitzgerald had a phenomenal game (8 receptions, 166 yards, TD). The Panthers' failure to contain Fitzgerald — especially in contrast to the Cardinals bottling up Steve Smith — was astounding. Their inability to stop Arizona's ground attack in the fourth quarter was disappointing, too, but more understandable, given the time of possession deficit (39:49-20:11). That defense must have been exhausted.

Finally, Delhomme was a disaster in this game. Almost half of Carolina's possessions ended with a Delhomme turnover (6/13). What does this guy have to do to get benched? It wouldn't have been crazy to pull him at halftime, and it was crazy to keep him in for the fourth quarter. I know Matt Moore was pretty bad last year, and no one will confuse Josh McCown for Tom Brady, but it's not like those guys could have been any worse. Would John Fox rather lose a playoff game than risk a quarterback controversy?

Speaking of Fox, what a sore loser. If you're down by 26 points, with less than a minute left, it is childish to call timeouts so your team can score. It's delusional to go for two on the point after, and it's just rude to call an onside kick afterwards. The whole thing was disrespectful. Fox wasted everybody's time: he put the fans through 10 minutes of what should have taken 57 seconds, he put the Cardinals at risk of injury, and he prolonged his own team's misery. Grow up, coach.

Even apart from lousy sportsmanship, Fox and his coaching staff did a miserable job this weekend. On a day when Delhomme was getting killed, they ran 36 pass plays and just 15 runs. Some of that was a comeback attempt in the fourth quarter, but a lot of it was bad play-calling earlier in the game. And where was Steve Smith all day? Call screens for him, put him back on punt returns, anything. Your most explosive player needs to touch the ball more than two times. Finally, the defensive coaches never adjusted their coverage to double-team Fitzgerald. That's pretty poor. The failure by Carolina's coaches to react during the game turned this into a blowout.

Eagles @ Giants

Obviously the Eagles would win. They had to, so they can lose in the NFC Championship Game. It's an Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb tradition.

This victory was less about the Eagles dominating the game than making plays when they needed to. They were 50% on third-down conversions, compared to the Giants' 23%. Philadelphia also got four first downs via penalty (which is a very high number) and New York went 0/3 in the red zone (3 FG, no TD).

The Eagles were successful despite very little production from their running backs. Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter combined for 43 rushing yards and 29 receiving (72 total). Compare that to the Giants' Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, who totaled 138 rushing and 24 receiving (162). New York was effective running the ball, but Eli Manning did not have a good game.

Manning passed for 169 yards, with 2 interceptions and a 40.7 passer rating. He also had a failed QB sneak on which it didn't look like he was trying very hard. Eli was great in the playoffs last year, but his career postseason numbers are not impressive: 185 ypg, 8 TD, 7 INT, 77.6 rating. Point of comparison: 77.6 is somewhere between JaMarcus Russell and Kyle Orton.

Having said that, this is not entirely Eli's fault. The Philadelphia defense has been lights-out for the last month or two, and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson did a great job in this game.

Chargers @ Steelers

The Steelers looked unstoppable on Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger, whose inconsistent play — especially right after injuries — had been a concern, played a great game, and the defense was sensational. Pittsburgh deserves a ton of credit, but I also think a lot of us overreacted to San Diego's wild card win against Indianapolis. The Chargers own the Colts, and expecting them to replicate that performance against Pittsburgh was unrealistic, especially for a trip to the Eastern time zone to play in the snow.

All the things San Diego did so well last week were limited or altogether absent in Pittsburgh. Philip Rivers took unnecessary sacks. Darren Sproles had 11 carries for 15 yards, and his biggest play came when the outcome was already pretty certain. Mike Scifres, the punter who was a hero last week, had one returned for a touchdown, the first return TD allowed in his career.

But most of all, the Chargers' defense let them down. You beat Pittsburgh by limiting mistakes, and forcing Roethlisberger into turnovers. The Chargers never pressured him. Big Ben had time to throw all day, and he only took one sack. All afternoon, San Diego used a four-man pass rush. It is said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Well, the Chargers rushed four men over and over again, and they never got different results. I doubt Ron Rivera had money riding on the Steelers, so either he's insane or he's never heard of blitzing.

Big Ben didn't have a huge game statistically (17-of-26, 181 yards, TD), but he really played well. Of course, San Diego's vanilla defense didn't hurt, and he got a huge assist from Willie Parker. San Diego's defense had particular trouble stopping outside runs. Twelve of Parker's 17 runs in the second half were outside the tackles, picking up 82 yards and a game-clinching touchdown. The Chargers never adjusted.

The Steelers got a couple of breaks and lucky bounces, but they really controlled this game, and were better in every phase.

The Final Four

I've always been resistant to the notion that defense wins championships (implying that offense is less important), but it sure looks true this year. Three of the four best defensive teams in the NFL (Steelers, Ravens, Eagles) are still active, and the other one (Titans) would still be around if they hadn't played Baltimore. The other team still alive (Cardinals) has played superb defense in the playoffs.

I suspect that turnovers have been more important this postseason than in any previous year. The winning teams this week were a combined +11 in turnovers, committing 3 and forcing 14. If you include both Wild Card Weekend and Divisional Weekend, the final four are a combined +17 in turnovers.

Conference Championship Forecast

Ravens @ Steelers

In my Week 17 Power Rankings, I had Baltimore ranked first and Pittsburgh second. I still think the Ravens are probably the best team in the NFL right now, but I'm picking the Steelers.

Pittsburgh swept the season series (although one of them was that shady "indisputable visual evidence" game), and this one will be played in Pittsburgh. The Steelers look healthy, while several key Ravens may be limited or unavailable because of injuries.

It's an even matchup between very similar teams. Both rely on stalwart, opportunistic defenses led by pass-rushing linebackers and play-making safeties. They each prefer to run the ball, and both look for the big play when they pass. The Ravens have better special teams, particularly at punter. I've given up expecting Joe Flacco to act like a rookie, but I'm also not going to gamble on Big Ben having a Delhomme-type performance, even against that Baltimore defense.

If the Ravens were the healthy team, I'd probably pick them. They're not, so I'm going with Pittsburgh by a field goal.

Eagles @ Cardinals

Every game this past weekend was a rematch from the regular season. So are both conference championship matchups. If the Eagles win, the Super Bowl will also be a rematch. That would mean nine of 11 postseason games ending up as rematches, including the last seven in a row.

So far this season, playoff road teams are 5-3. Since the 2002 expansion and realignment, a road team has won its conference championship game every year except 2006. Is this a lead-up to picking the visiting Eagles? No, it's waffling. The Eagles are probably a better team, but if Arizona's defense and running game perform the way they did the last two weeks, the Cardinals will win. Philadelphia has historically underperformed in NFC Championship Games, but the team is on fire right now, and I don't see them letting up. See how I'm waffling? I feel that Arizona has a substantial home field advantage, but I think the Eagles are hungrier. For waffles.

The wild card in this contest is the running game, and whichever team can run more effectively probably has the edge. I actually think the Cardinals — who ranked 32nd in rushing — have the better run game right now. Brian Westbrook clearly is not 100%, and he hasn't had a really great game recently. The last time he averaged four yards per rush was the last time these teams met, a month and a half ago on Thanksgiving. That's probably balanced out at least somewhat by Philadelphia's defense, which is better than Arizona's.

For the Cardinals to win, they need the defense to come up with a couple of big turnovers again. For the Eagles to win, they need one or two big plays from their offense — DeSean Jackson and Westbrook, in particular — and they've got to break even in the turnover battle. They might be able to get away with -1, but not -2. I don't see the Cardinals coming up +2 in turnovers again. Eagles by a touchdown.

A Brief Word About Tony Dungy

I've never seen so many people cry at one press conference. Team owner Jim Irsay, GM Bill Polian, and Dungy all choked up during the 45-minute presser to announce Coach Dungy's retirement. It speaks to Dungy's demeanor off the field that his retirement is so emotional for those who worked with him, and he has garnered extensive praise for winning "his way." Dungy's "way" stands in stark contrast to the other elite head coach of his era, Bill Belichick, who is widely perceived as a ruthless, win-at-all-costs type. Dungy was never willing to put football above treating others with caring and respect.

Tony Dungy is very much a product of Chuck Noll, for whom he was both a player and an assistant coach, but he reminds me of no one more than Dick Vermeil, who was similarly beloved, and who matched success on the field with concern about what happened off it.

The Colts remain in capable hands, with associate head coach Jim Caldwell taking over for Dungy and leaving most or all of the current staff intact. Despite underachievement in the postseason, Dungy is a likely Hall of Famer, and I think that's probably appropriate. On his record alone, Dungy would be a borderline case. He is among the top 20 winningest coaches in history, with a fantastic winning percentage and a Super Bowl ring. He holds the NFL record for most consecutive seasons making the playoffs (10). Intangibles should put him over the top.

As the first African-American head coach to win a Super Bowl, Dungy occupies a hugely important place in league history, and he has given opportunities to a number of today's head coaches, including most of the league's minority HCs. Caldwell, Herm Edwards, Lovie Smith, and Mike Tomlin were all assistants under Dungy, and his coaching tree will ultimately be a very important part of the man's legacy. Happy trails, Coach Dungy.