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January 31, 2009

The Top 10 Games of 2008 (Pt. 5)

Also see: Pt. 1 | Pt. 2 | Pt. 3 | Pt. 4

2) Wimbledon Men's Final, Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer, July 6

While number three on our list was a great unifying moment for America, number two shows just how transcendent sport is. For here in the United States, we were all mesmerized for nearly five hours by a Spaniard and a Swiss battling in a tennis match in England. For all intents and purposes, it didn't have to matter to us that much, but it was simply too good to pass up.

The final of the 2008 Men's Wimbledon tournament was the simplest, purest form of sports in existence. The two greatest men in their craft going mano-a-mano, both refusing to bend to the other man's will in a championship contest that literally took them all day to complete.

Ridiculous shots were returned and made into mind-blowing winners. Every point seemed to be a rally. Every rally seemed to last 10, or 15, or 20 strokes per. Set points and championship points were denied often as the momentum swung back and forth. An entire sport was elevated and made more relevant than it had been in decades. Nothing Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras cooked up together ever tasted quite this good.

Rafael Nadal, the up-and-coming challenger and No. 2 player in the world, was looking to avenge his loss to top-ranked Roger Federer in this same championship round the previous year. Nadal had beaten Federer on the clay courts of the French Open of course, but the Wimbledon grass was Federer's surface. For Roger, quite possibly the greatest tennis player of all-time, few expected him to fall here, even to the top challenger. Nadal was thought to be simply the man in the way of Federer's 13th career Grand Slam title on his way to eventually smashing Pete Sampras' record of 14.

Nadal came out of the gates strong though and surprised the master, taking the first set 6-4. Federer took control of the second set, leading 4-1 until Nadal landed a devastating blow to the champ by taking the next five games in succession and winning this set 6-4, as well.

As Federer fought for his life in the third set, the rains came and delayed a tight contest for 81 minutes. When the court was clear again, the men battled to a tiebreaker. Incredibly, Nadal had the chance to knock off the great Federer in straight sets for the title. Federer bore down and won the tiebreak 7-5 to keep his hopes alive.

The fourth set would end on similar terms, again they matched each other at six games apiece and took to another tiebreak. Nadal quickly jumped ahead and went to take the executioner's post. He led the tiebreak 5-2 needing only two more points to seal the upset. With the ball in his court, Nadal double-faulted. Federer won the next two points to draw even at 5. Even so, Nadal would go up 6-5 setting up championship point. Federer's answer to that came in the form of an angry 127 mph ace. Nadal responded with a brilliant return that he snuck past Federer's racket for the point down the line to set up championship point.

Undeterred, Federer rose to the occasion with a brilliant backhand winner of his own down the line. The tiebreak was now being stretched into somewhat of a marathon. Shades of the 1980 Wimbledon final between Bjorn Borg and John McEnroe, which also had a very long fourth set tiebreak, seemed to be noticeable.

Federer finally broke through and won the fourth set tiebreak 10-8, forcing a deciding fifth set. Nadal had had countless opportunities to put away the champ and score the upset and it seemed he may have missed his chance. Federer was too dangerous to let off the mat and get away with.

Even after the drama of the fourth set, the fifth did not prove to be anticlimactic. The contest was again delayed by rain early in the deciding fifth. A half-hour later, the gladiators returned to the now-horrid conditions to finish the match. Night and myst both figured into their ability to see the ball.

From then on, neither man could break the other. Service games were traded until 6-6 had become 7-7. The cruel reality of Wimbledon is there is no fifth-set tiebreak. Someone eventually has to win their set and their match by two games, no matter how long that takes. In this case, the competitors were rapidly losing daylight and visibility. The possibility of the game being suspended until the following day loomed large. In a related story, no one on either the Phillies or the Rays saw this coming.

With Federer serving, Nadal finally broke through and took the game, needing only to win one more service game to clinch immortality. Yet while Federer had made so many great shots all day, perhaps he simply did not have enough left in the tank when he drilled a simple forehand shot right into the net, ending this four-hour, 48-minute odyssey.

Nadal fell to the ground, utterly spent. Yet he was on top of the tennis world. Recognizing the enormity of the moment, Nadal celebrated by going into the stands among other things. No matter how many times ESPN Classic replays this match, Rafael Nadal would forever be the winner of what commentator John McEnroe claimed to be the greatest tennis match ever. This is especially meaningful because McEnroe was involved in, and the loser of, the aforementioned 1980 Wimbledon final that is often cited as the greatest match ever. If anyone had the right to judge this match, it would be McEnroe.

Rafa remains at No. 1 to this day, and Federer went into a mini-tailspin of sorts following the loss. Federer has since recovered to take the No. 2 spot, although he is still searching to get back what Nadal took from him on that unforgettable July night.

Final score: Rafael Nadal defeats Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (5-7), 6-7 (8-10), 9-7

Before we go to our number one, let's take one last look at our list as it now stands and I will briefly go over how and why each game was ranked as it was. Overall, the incredible and dramatic twists and turns of a game was more a prerequisite to be on the list rather than a means of ranking the games. That is because looking across the sports, it's hard to say one had more twists and turns than another; in a sense they all seem to be very equally compelling. The more important factors were significance and impact; how much in the world of sports as well as the real world was changed after this game happened. In 2008, we were just so fortunate to have a plethora of sporting events that featured both great excitement and great meaning, more so than ever before.

10) NBA playoffs first round Game 1 – Spurs 117, Suns 115 2OT — It was a playoff game, but barely. Not a huge impact but still many high-profile players in a heated rivalry, grudge match, loser left demoralized to fall in five and Tim Duncan hitting a three. Most excitement in any NBA playoff game. Good way to start the list.

9) ALCS Game 5, Red Sox 8, Rays 7 — This stunning comeback from 7-0 down in the seventh inning left many to believe the Red Sox were coming back to win the next two games and take the series. Well, they didn't, and that keeps this game from being ranked higher.

8) Stanley Cup Finals Game 5, Penguins 4, Red Wings 3 3OT — If the Penguins had won the Cup, this would have also been ranked higher.

7) NBA Finals Game 4 — Greatest comeback in NBA Finals history. However, it was a six-point game.

6) NCAA football, Texas Tech 39, Texas 33 — Indirectly affected the national championship, saw a significant underdog knock off a No. 1 ranked team and claim a No. 2 ranking for themselves.

5) NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Game, Kansas 85, Memphis 78 — Directly decided the national championship, featuring a nine-point comeback in the final two minutes and a shot for the ages.

4) U.S. Open Golf Championship — Tiger Woods def. Rocco Mediate in 19-hole playoff on first sudden death hole. Greatest golfer in the world sold his knee to the devil for an epic, heroic, and dramatic major championship.

3) Olympic swimming, Men's 4x100 Freestyle Relay, USA (gold), France (silver), Australia (Bronze) — The greatest Olympic moment for the United States since perhaps the Miracle on Ice, and it featured both a legend and a hero.

2) Wimbledon Men's Final, Nadal def. Federer — The greatest tennis championship, two great players, greatest tennis match ever?

And that leaves us with...

1) Super Bowl XLII, New York Giants vs. New England Patriots, February 3

To eclipse such a pure example of sports excellence as the Federer/Nadal Wimbledon Final and make the top of our list in 2008 required nothing less than the Super Bowl of the Apocalypse.

While nobody is confusing the 2007 New York Giants for the 1980 U.S. Olympic Hockey team (Plaxico Burress, meet Mike Eruzione? I think not!), the 2007 Patriots clearly were football's version of the Soviets. The very definition of juggernaut, they were an undefeated, mistake-free, high-scoring, great-defensive team that took satisfaction in nothing less than crushing the opponent. Their coach was a methodical perfectionist (Viktor Tikhonov meet Bill Belichick? Now that's more like it!) who engaged in questionable and shaky practices. Their quarterback was, for all intents and purposes, this millennium's Joe Montana, throwing to a receiver as spectacular and explosive as Jerry Rice.

Football's first 16-0 regular season team was not going to go down to these 10-6 jokers with the shaky quarterback who had pulled off a couple of lucky upsets. The Patriots had also won three championships over the past six years, while the Giants had not been down the road of playoff success before. How could they possibly know how to handle the pressures of a Super Bowl against a team there for their fourth time that had won each of the previous three?

The Giants had completed a tumultuous and inconsistent season to reach the playoffs as a wildcard fifth seed. From there, they had to win a pair of heart-stopping upset victories in Dallas and Green Bay to get here. The latter was an overtime thriller played in Lambeau field in –4-degree weather and it pained me to leave that game off this list. Consider it my highest honorable mention and No. 11 on the list.

Brady and his Pats were so good that some bitter fans cried out for defenders to go Gillooly on his knee (a prophecy that eerily came true at the start of the following season) while others, despite being grown men, professed their creepy undying love for the man. No one gets that kind of royal treatment unless he's scary good.

Instead, their modern-day Joe Montana got the Leonard Marshall-style treatment from the underrated Giants defense. This ultimately proved to be one last joyous romp for Michael Strahan, who wreaked havoc on defense throughout the game, recording a sack on Brady in his final NFL game.

Giants fans were made to hold their breath as somehow this ultimate game hinged on the ability of Little Brother to drive his team 83-yards in the final two minutes, trailing by four.

At one point, the favorites saw the game literally slip through their fingers, in particular that of Asante Samuel's.

If you are reading this from our solar system, you probably know that said shaky quarterback got away from some tacklers and threw a pass to his even-shakier receiver. And that receiver went up and made a catch that dropped jaws. You have probably seen and heard about this play at least 3,000 going on 3,001 times by now and still have to agree that it is still worth one more look.

Shaky quarterback then threw the winning score to Plaxico Burress with just 35 seconds left, a pass that came all too easily against the vaunted Patriots defense. Which quarterback looked like Joe Montana now?

Burress, who had nobly been playing hurt all season, was overwhelmed by the enormity of the moment and the accomplishment, and wept openly in the post-game interview. This showed us all that Burress is obviously an outstanding human being.

And just like that, the apocalypse was officially upon us. The four horseman: War, Pestilence, Famine, and Death to the perfect season had shown up on the Giants sidelines. 18-1 became not just a t-shirt, but every New York sports fan's favorite rebuttal when confronted by Boston fans about the previous apocalyptic event that happened between New York and Boston sports teams.

It seemed all the stars and planets aligned to create the perfect circumstances, subplots, and intrigue for an amazing Super Bowl. Then the game delivered like few before it ever had, playing so perfectly right into the hands of all those circumstances. For my original recap of this epic shortly after it happened, just check here.

The reason this game gets top billing over the greatest tennis match ever, the greatest Olympic moment in many years, the greatest golf tournament, the greatest clutch shot in an NCAA title game, and the greatest comeback in NBA Finals history is because, well, it's the greatest Super Bowl. While the true sports purist may insist that the best game was in fact the Federer/Nadal match at number two, we do not live in a world full of sports purists. The most meaningful and significant game for the greatest number of sports fans in this country turned out to have the greatest underdog story in the most dramatic fashion, create possibly the greatest NFL postseason highlight of all-time, and perhaps the greatest Super Bowl ever, as well. The president of NFL Films, a man who has seen and studied all 42 contests, Steve Sabol, says so, and why shouldn't you?

Final score: Giants 17, Patriots 14

Other NFL Honorable Mentions

• NFC Championship Game, Giants 23 @ Packers 20 OT, Just missed the cut
• AFC divisional playoff, Chargers 28 @ Colts 24, Philip Rivers/Peyton Manning duel, Billy Volek comes in for injured Rivers and leads Chargers to improbable winning TD
• Week 2, Chargers 38 @ Broncos 39, The Ed Hochuli game, also a spectacular shootout with a dramatic finish

I decided to make this list not just because I was disappointed that ESPN did not come up with one, but because 2008 ran so deep with great games that a moment as unforgettable as Jason Lezak's could rank only third. It ran so deep that I couldn't find room on the list for a 4 degrees below freezing NFC Championship Game decided in overtime. 2008 was a year that cried out for such a list and so here it is. I hope for those of you that read along, this helped recapture those memories and provided everything ESPN could have and more. Hopefully by the end of 2009, the folks at the Worldwide Leader will get their act together and get it right and do either a top 10 of the year or better yet, top 10 games of the decade. Otherwise, I might just have to write you guys another one of these next year.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:51 AM | Comments (0)

Will the Cheechoo Train Ever Reboard?

At the end of the 1979-80 season, an alumnus of the Flin Flon Bombers, a member of the Saskatchewan Junior Hockey League, won the NHL's goal scoring race. At the awards podium, the Maurice "Rocket" Richard trophy — bestowed upon the scorer of the most goals — belonged to Hartford Whaler Blaine Stoughton, who lit the lamp 56 times that year. Stoughton skated in Connecticut for four full seasons. He went on to play 14 games with the New York Rangers in 1983-84 before returning to Hartford and appearing in 54 more decisions.

Stoughton's career was journey ridden: throughout his 14 years in professional hockey, nine spent in the NHL, he played in Toronto, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma City, New York, Hartford, New Haven, Indianapolis, Hershey, and Asiago, Italy in leagues from the AHL to the WHA and then some. Stoughton dressed for 80 games the year he was the NHL goal leader, adding 44 assists and leveling off at a career-high points total of 100. Although he barely missed that plateau two years later, scoring 52 goals in another 80 contests and reaching 91 points with the Whale, Stoughton's production never fully sustained the consistency of a repetitive Rocket winner. A chart of his stats would shape a mountain, climbing in altitude to the apex and then descending, retracing familiar heights before bottoming at sea level. Stoughton retired in 1988.

Stoughton coaches club hockey at the University of Cincinnati now. And no doubt, comparisons can be made between his pro days and some of today's players. But has anyone charted a similar trajectory, obtaining offensive glory only to gradually concede effectiveness and drift into relative obscurity? A glaring association seems to be developing. After scouring Stoughton's career statistics, a single revealing figure is the number of goals he notched to win the Richard trophy: 56.

Fresh from the NHL lockout and ready to lead the Boston Bruins to the success they've only recently enjoyed, Joe Thornton was traded to the San Jose Sharks just 23 games into the 2005-2006 season. He dominated, topping the Rangers' Jaromir Jagr for most points with 125 and winning the league MVP. Of Thornton's 96 assists, 38 came from pucks deposited by Jonathan Cheechoo. Cheechoo tallied 56 goals that year — double his previous career best. He won the Maurice Richard Award.

There's the Stoughton connection.

Since that stellar year, the Cheechoo train has derailed. His offensive proclivities have waned along with his durability. Cheechoo's presence was felt in all 82 games in '05-'06 and he finished with 93 points. His games played have fallen consecutively — 76 during 2006-2007, 69 last year, and only 34 of 46 thus far in 2009 — and with them his offensive prowess. He currently has a mere 18 points (7g, 11a).

Numbers will naturally suffer when a player isn't actually playing. Yet, Cheechoo's digits, even when he is on the ice, haven't kept pace with the rate he was scoring in his Rocket winning season. His point-per-game-plus average immediately following the lockout has lost its significance given that, in the 179 games he's played since, he's only posted 124 points. "Jonathan Cheechoo still carries a 'big name'," wrote Tim Kavanagh in an ESPN.com midseason NHL fantasy hockey assessment. "But he also has an underwhelming point total." What better adjective to employ than underwhelming?

Sharks coach Todd McLellan has shifted lines to help Cheechoo and left-wing Milan Michalek abandon their scoreless ways. Says Toronto Globe and Mail hockey columnist Eric Duhatschek, "playing them with Thornton — the three time assists leader in the NHL — is designed to shake them out of their scoring funks." Cheechoo was on a tear at the end of December and into the new year. Unfortunately, he's cooled in recent weeks, inking the score sheet in only three of the last 10 games. Reuniting Cheechoo with Thornton is a smart move if he can capitalize on Thornton's most Wayne Gretzky-like quality: making the players around him better. It's happened before.

Cheechoo's teammate and San Jose captain, Patrick Marleau, also endured a struggle last year, but has 52 points already this year, eclipsing last season's total by four. Cheechoo's been forced to deal with occasional injury problems, however; Marleau hasn't, which has helped him reclaim his status as a top NHL forward. Cheechoo has escaped open scrutiny because he's been hurt, but mostly because the Sharks are winning. They have been for several years; he won't if they flounder. Again, San Jose is playing the best hockey in the NHL in '08-'09, along with Boston. For their success to endure throughout the playoffs, where the Sharks squander demonstrable promise yearly, Cheechoo will be a crucial component, especially on the power play.

Blaine Stoughton jumped from team to team and rolled through various professional leagues, but for a few seasons, produced with balmy regularity. Jonathan Cheechoo has proven he has NHL skill. If he hopes to avoid a similar tour of duty, he must hone his NHL talent, and sharpen the dullest aspect of his game: consistency.

Posted by Jeff DiNunzio at 11:37 AM

January 29, 2009

NFL Weekly Predictions: Super Bowl XLIII

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Arizona vs. Pittsburgh (-6½)

Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, the "Lap Dance Capital of the World," pits the upstart Cardinals against the Steelers, and both teams, like many who visit the fine city, are there looking for a happy ending. The Steelers are gunning for their sixth Super Bowl title, which would put them one up on the Cowboys and 49ers. It's the Steelers seventh appearance in the Super Bowl, with their only loss coming in Super Bowl XXX, a 27-17 loss to the Cowboys. Mike Tomlin knows a victory on Sunday would cement his place in Steeler lore among former Super Bowl-winning coaches Chuck Knoll and Bill Cowher.

"The significance of this game isn't lost on me," says Tomlin. "My legacy is at stake, but more importantly, of this organization's five Super Bowl wins, not one has come in the Chinese 'Year of the Ox,' which just began on Monday, not to be confused with the American 'Year of the Ax,' which began for NFL coaches as soon as the regular season ended. I certainly don't want to be known as the coach of the Pittsburgh team that lost the franchise's second Super Bowl, the first being that loss to the Cowboys in 1996, a year known to Neil O'Donnell as the 'Year of the Goat.'"

"Just a side note here: former Broncos running back Travis Henry was born in 'The Year of the Rabbit,' which makes sense, because that dude's gone 'five-hole' more than Pittsburgh Penguins superstar Sydney Crosby. And when Travis and his offspring sing 'We Are Family,' it makes Willie Stargell and the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates' version of the same seem like a small production."

Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt, who served as Pittsburgh offensive coordinator when they won Super Bowl XL, has strong motivation of his own to bring the Cardinals their first Super Bowl win. When Bill Cowher retired, Whisenhunt was passed over for the Pittsburgh head coaching job, a position that eventually was awarded to Mike Tomlin.

"Tomlin got the job," says Whisenhunt. "And I got jobbed. Even my offensive line coach, Russ Grimm, had his fairy tale existence shattered when he was passed over for the job. But I don't have time to be bitter, except when I'm cruising Lake Havasu on my yacht, the Sweet Revenge. For now, I'll speak no more of this, lest not until Sunday's pre-game speech, when I'll give my team an embellished and practically fictional account of how I was wrongly overlooked for the job. But I've got nothing but respect for Tomlin."

"Likewise," says Tomlin. "I've got nothing but love for Ken. And Biz Markie. But really, who says 'Nobody beats the Whis'? I did for the job. And I plan to in the Super Bowl, provided the game is not close and I'm not forced to make a clutch decision, like unnecessarily going for a two-point conversion. Or having Big Ben roll out and fall down instead of trying in earnest to pickup the game-clinching first down. Or having the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year fill in as a deep-snapper."

Like most Super Bowls, the outcome of this one is likely to be determined by the play of the quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner each have a Super Bowl victory already, and both have overcome their share of adversity in their careers.

"I just hope my attempt to 'go for two' finds more success than Coach Tomlin did in last year's playoffs," says Roethlisberger, whose surname loosely translates to "man incapable of wearing his baseball cap correctly."

"As for Warner, I see a lot of similarities in our career paths. We both went through a lot. Kurt went through NFL Europe to get here. I went through a windshield to get here. I've tolerated nagging injuries; Kurt's tolerated a nagging wife. Kurt believes in a higher power. I believe in the power of Santonio Holmes to get himself, and others, high. And Kurt and I can both spell 'cat,' assuming we're spotted the 'C' and the 'A.'"

Indeed, there are similarities. But there are stark differences between Warner and Roethlisberger. Warner is a traditional pocket passer, and makes his best throws when not hurried. Roethlisberger, while able to make throws in the pocket, is often at his best on the run, and some of the Steelers' biggest plays have come when Roethlisberger evacuates the pocket.

"Therein lie the dilemmas facing the defenses," says Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. "If, when, and how to pressure the respective quarterbacks. The Cardinals will want to get some pressure on Roethlisberger, while at the same time keeping him contained in the pocket. Good luck with that. Lord, he was born a scrambling man."

"With Warner, our task is a little more complicated. Given time, Warner will easily find an open receiver. But if he knows we're coming, he'll tear our blitzes apart. So, ultimately, our goal is to upset Warner's rhythm, fluster him, and make him second-guess himself, and I see no better way to do that than with blasphemy, the worship of false idols, countless violations of the Ten Commandments, and commitment of six of the Seven Deadly Sins. You know, the things that wouldn't even bother Matt Leinart."

"So, we can't go after Warner with a 'devil-may-care' attitude. In short, we've got to raise hell."

However they choose to defend Warner, the Steelers must do what none of Arizona's previous playoff opponents have done, and that's properly defend wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Most experts agree that defenders must be physical with Fitzgerald at the line of scrimmage and disrupt his route. That's sound strategy, assuming Fitzgerald doesn't push back. But he's big enough to take care of himself in these situations. Whatever the Steelers choose to do with Fitzgerald, the Cardinals will still have the advantage, either with one-on-one coverage on Fitzgerald, or another receiver facing one-on-one coverage, due to a double-team on Fitzgerald.

Whisenhunt should have some great insight as to defending Roethlisberger, as he called the plays in the Steelers 21-10 victory over the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL.

"I've got Big Ben's number," says Whisenhunt. "I coached Ben to one of the worst quarterback performances in Super Bowl history. Just think what I can do when I'm on the other side."

After a non-eventful first half of the first quarter, the Cards take over after a Steeler punt, and, after some light bickering on the sideline between Warner, Anquan Boldin, and offensive coordinator Todd Haley, Arizona drives into Pittsburgh territory. From the 20-yard line, Haley calls a wide receiver screen to Boldin, who takes it in for a touchdown. Boldin celebrates wildly, which ironically, looks just like a Boldin tantrum. Boldin then admits that he suffers from "IED," or "intermittent explosive disorder," a behavioral disorder characterized by explosive fits of anger, often due to a feeling a helplessness that often arises when the exploits of a teammate and record-setting wide receiver deprives the afflicted of the attention needed to satiate said afflicted's ego.

The Steelers strike back immediately, as Roethlisberger hits tight end Heath Miller for the tying score. The teams play virtually even through the second period, and the Steelers take a 14-13 lead.

At halftime, Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band hit the stage with songs that span much of Springsteen's four-decade career. Ever the showman, Springsteen sprinkles his performance with songs relating to the NFL's past and present. The set list includes song about Larry Fitzgerald ("(You Can't) Cover Me"), Carolina Panther cheerleaders ("I'm Going Down"), Dick LaBeau's defensive schemes ("Brilliant Disguise"), and obscure former New England Patriots defensive linemen, ("The Ghost of Tim Goad").

Springsteen caps his performance with 1984's bouncy "Dancing in the Dark," and is joined on stage by former NFL linebacker Bryan Cox. At the song's completion, Springsteen takes a bow to a standing ovation, while Cox flips the crowd off and storms from the stage. But not before ripping Springsteen's shirt off, which segue's quite nicely into the encore, "Cover Me."

Afterwards, in his dressing room, Springsteen is involved in a disturbing skirmish with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and actor Tony Danza, as the three heatedly debate the question "Who's the Boss?"

Once the second half begins, the intensity heats up, and both teams begin taking more chances downfield. Fitzgerald get free on a halfback option pass from James, and Roethlisberger hits Nate Washington for a score on a flea-flicker. Jeff Reed gives the Steelers a 24-23 lead late in the fourth, but Warner, buoyed by a miraculous 25-yard completion to Steve Breaston in which a concentrated swarm of locusts temporarily blinds cornerback Ryan Clark, leads the Cards into field goal range. Neil Rackers kicks a 41-yard game-winner. Arizona wins, 26-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:58 AM | Comments (0)

Slant Pattern Super Bowl Preview

Each year during Super Bowl time, I like to see if any major American sports confederations dare put up an event against the Super Bowl. Usually, no one will, but occasionally that doesn't hold true.

The official kickoff time is set for 6:18 PM Eastern, and will probably run until about 10PM.

This year, college basketball did the neatest trick in avoiding it. The last game on the docket, Portland State at Montana State, should end right around six, when the Super Bowl is close to kicking off.

The NHL has scheduled one overlapping game: Nashville at Edmonton at 8 PM Eastern. Since the game is in Canada, they kind of get a pass. I do feel sorry for diehard Preds fans without TiVo, who will be forced to make Sophie's Choice at around halftime.

So the most egregious offender this year is the Sacramento Kings, who scheduled their game with the Oklahoma City Thunder for 9 PM Eastern, right when the Super Bowl (potentially) will hit the exciting home stretch. The players, support staff, and fans of the teams must pissed. These teams have a combined record of 20-71, and yet both team's cable affiliates are carrying the game (so still more people to piss-off).

The local fans, however, have a choice, and I think I just might have to tune in at tipoff to see just how dead it is. It may be insanely dead. I picture a YMCA game, or perhaps a soccer match where the home team is playing out a FIFA "next game behind closed doors" punishment.

As far as the Super Bowl itself, let me break down the units:

QUARTERBACKS: Ben Roethlisberger has had a monstrously successful NFL career, and yet I wonder how he would fair on a bad team. He runs very hot and cold, a la Donovan McNabb, especially this year (although that may have been due to injuries).

Kurt Warner, obviously, deserves some sort of Comeback Player of the Century award. When VH1 does "I Love the '00s (Strikes Back)." I look forward to the 2004 episode when they discuss Kurt Warner with the Giants (in fact, if my editor could please find and use a picture of Warner with the Giants for this article's image, he doesn't have to pay me for this article).

ADVANTAGE: Cardinals.

RUNNING BACKS: The Steelers seem to have morphed into the Broncos East with their running game. Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore, Rashard Mendenhall, and Najeh Davenport all are capable when healthy of putting up good numbers as a Steelers featured back.

For Arizona, they are so pass-heavy that the backs are more like specialists, like kickers.

ADVANTAGE: Steelers.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This has been the most exciting story of this year's playoffs. One receiver established himself as a member of the uppermost strata of superstars in the NFL, on a franchise that has never had such a superstar (sorry, Aeneas Williams, I'm giving points for casual fan recognition) in my lifetime. So unstoppable. Seemingly able to do whatever he wants, whenever he wants, even if he's triple teamed.

But the Cardinals receiving corps is actually a lot deeper than Jerheme Urban. Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward one of the better tandems in the NFL, but obviously...

ADVANTAGE: Cardinals.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Ha! My eyes follow the ball. I don't know.

ADVANTAGE: Draw.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Ha! My eyes follow the ball. I don't know.

ADVANTAGE: Draw.

LINEBACKERS: Ha! Occasionally, my colleague Brad Oremland contacts me for an ambitious historical NFL writing project. While I am always happy to collaborate with him, I caution him I am dangerously unqualified standing next to him and his kind. Perhaps, perhaps now, he will listen. He will understand.

ADVANTAGE: Draw.

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Ha! Although, I will say ... ah, I just can't make a Ryan Clark cranium-related joke. Too soon. I will note that I've seen multiple pundits describe the Arizona defense as "opportunistic," which seems like a nice way of saying "lucky." Turnovers are the great randomizer. I ought to do a study comparing teams' turnover margin to their average yards per play. The teams that have the widest margin between the two, favoring the former, bet heavily against them. Yes! I have a system! The first one ever guaranteed to work.

ADANTAGE: Draw.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Ha! My eyes ... damn, that caveat doesn't really work with this category. I don't know. Neil Rackers is good. So is Jeff Reed. I can't really remember who their punters are, or if they have notable return games, but I think Arizona might because I wanna say they use their offensive stars to return kicks sometimes. Not sure.

ADVANTAGE: Draw.

FINAL PREDICTION: Despite favoring the Cardinals in twice as many categories as the Steelers, I will still quote Captain Caveman from Kissing Suzy Kolber:

"I guess, given the existence of Larry Fitzgerald, it's theoretically possible that the Cardinals can wi– ... no. Nope, I can't even finish that sentence. It's better if we all come to terms with a Steelers championship now."

My thoughts exactly.

STEELERS 38, CARDINALS 22

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:08 AM | Comments (0)

January 28, 2009

The Top 10 Games of 2008 (Pt. 4)

Also see: Pt. 1 | Pt. 2 | Pt. 3

4) U.S. Open Golf Championship, Torrey Pines, June 12-16

Tiger Woods made the 2008 U.S. Open special for obvious reasons. He played the noble wounded hero trudging along, refusing to give in to his human limitations. While Kirk Gibson famously hit a game-winning home run on a bad knee and a bad ankle, he only needed to stand in against Dennis Eckersley for one at-bat and make one solid swing. Now imagine if Gibson, on those same two bad legs, had started every game and turned in the series MVP performance. Then imagine that the team needed every last dinger, base hit, and diving catch just to force extra innings in the seventh game before Gibson's Dodgers finally prevail. Oh, last but not least, Gibson would have to be forced to sit out all of the 1989 season with said injuries, questioning all the while if he had just ended or ruined the remainder of his career.

In the U.S. Open, you have no teammates to pick up the slack when your knees fall apart.

Rocco Mediate made the 2008 U.S. Open special for reasons some may forget. That is unfortunate. The middle-aged, slight, humble, and humorous Mediate played an unlikely foil to Woods' massive stature and athletic prowess. Although he was not the first unlikely Tiger challenger of his kind (see Bob May, 2000 PGA Championship, and Chris DiMarco, 2005 Masters), he quickly became a beloved figure among media and fans alike for his self-deprecating humor, class, and appreciation of the moment. For all Mediate's anonymity and underdog role, he battled Tiger to the bitter end and never faded or backed down. Golf lovers nationwide watched and waited for Mediate to falter, as we knew he would have to at some point. Ultimately, he did, but not on the first 72 holes of the Open, and not on the next 18 either. Not until hole 91.

The 2008 U.S. Open went along as expected for the first two rounds. Tiger struggled mightily and was four strokes back of the lead on day one. By the second day, he had caught up and was now one stroke back at –2. Tied for second place with none other than Rocco Mediate. By the third day, Lee Westwood threw his hat into the ring and essentially made it a three-man race. That Saturday was when the magic began to happen.

Despite his pains, Tiger unleashed a hellish wrath of mind-boggling shots on the back nine to take a share of the lead with Westwood. Mediate lurked a mere stroke behind Tiger's 33 strokes on that Saturday second half and that was unequaled by any man within reach. The most memorable of these involved Tiger banking in a chip shot that would have gone well long had it not hit perfectly off the flagstick on the first bounce and settled into the hole. Woods seemed almost embarrassed at his own greatness as he took his hat off, scratched his head, and gave the camera a bashful and bemused grin. For the great ones it seems, lady luck is always an available lifeline.

This left Woods at 3 under par going into the final Sunday, with Westwood at –2 and Mediate at –1. For the latter two golfers, this meant in order to win the Open, they would have to make history. No one had ever come from behind to beat Tiger Woods going into the final Sunday.

As the day was set up, Rocco would play his 18 in an earlier pairing with Woods and Westwood being partnered off in the nightcap. Rocco would shoot a hard-earned 71, par for the course, to finish at 1 under. From there, he would have to sweat it out in the clubhouse, watching the theatrics on television to see if he had won his first major championship at the age of 45.

As Woods and Westwood got off to shaky starts, it became clearer that this was to be a three-man photo finish. A multi-faceted battled had ensued as they went against the score Mediate had posted, as well as each other in real-time.

The most agonizing thing for anyone following Woods throughout the tournament was his tee shots. Often, he would swing and then grimace before making the painstaking walk down the fairway towards his ball.

Sure enough, going into the par-5 18, both men needed at least a birdie to keep their hopes alive and force a tie. No easy task as the course had only allowed each two birdies all day. Both men would hit their tee shots into a bunker, and sure enough, both men would escape that bunker needing long putts to tie. Westwood's 20-footer never had a chance as his weekend came to an agonizing end. Woods had a shorter 12-foot putt that left Rocco looking on from the clubhouse not in fear, but in awe. The underdog who stood to lose so much seemed to be savoring the drama of the moment as much as any other spectator at home.

Tiger's putt rolled into the back lip of the cup and turned for a gasp-filled moment before settling in to tie the Open. A vintage Tiger fist-pumping celebration ensued. "Unbelievable" was Rocco's immediate reaction. "I knew he'd make it."

Monday's match-play showdown between number 1 and number 158 was packed with yet more drama. Tiger managed a three-stroke lead after the 10th hole before fading, while Rocco strung together birdies on 13, 14 and 15. Sure enough going into 18, Mediate had another one-stroke lead, another chance to close out the legend.

Tiger's tee and approach shots on the par-5 were perfect, soaring over the water and onto the green in two to make up the one-strike difference. Still, Mediate found himself on the green with a 20-foot putt for all the marbles. With destiny on his putter, Mediate missed the hole wide by a solid foot, swinging the door wide open for a tiger. Woods was now left with a four-foot birdie putt to force a sudden-death playoff. Putting his usual exuberance aside, Woods calmly sank the putt and moved along in a business-as-usual fashion. The two equals would go to hole seven hoping to break this unending stalemate. It was there, on the 91st hole of this breathtaking tourney that Rocco finally cracked.

Hitting his tee shot into the bunker and his second into the crowd, Rocco got a free drop and chipped it onto the green some 20 feet away. Tiger would reach the green in two and get close with a putt for his third. He would tap in for par, leaving all the pressure this time on Mediate to stay alive. Mediate's Cinderella story would roll on by the cup just an inch to the right. The gimpy and weakened Tiger Woods had not only won his 14th major, but did so in a fashion that exceeded even our god-like expectations for him.

In the days that followed, our appreciation for this victory deepened as the severity of Woods' knee injury was revealed. Tiger may very well have sacrificed a full year's worth of golf to win this one tournament, which has now considered by many as the greatest in U.S. Open history.

And yet, one would be hard pressed to disagree that it was still well worth it.

Final score: Tiger Woods –1, Rocco Mediate –1, Lee Westwood E
Final score, 18-hole playoff on Monday: Tiger Woods (71) E, Rocco Mediate (71) E
Final score, sudden death playoff hole: Tiger Woods (4) E, Rocco Mediate (5) +1

3) Olympic Swimming, 4x100 Men's Freestyle Relay Final, August 11

Few things are less fathomable than what Michael Phelps has managed to accomplish in the Beijing Summer Olympic Games of 2008.

No, I'm not talking about his eight gold medals in eight races, surpassing the legendary Mark Spitz. I'm not talking about his now-legendary drive, focus, work ethic, and conditioning.

What boggles my mind is simply how Michael Phelps was so good, that for he managed, from half a world away no less, to make swimming the national pastime for six mesmerizing days and nights.

Everyone watched. Everyone talked about it. Everyone loved it. This quest by Phelps for the eight holy grails mutated and grew into something much bigger than us all. It appealed to the sports fan that appreciates excellence and greatness, as well as the non-sports fan that loves the Olympics for its great human-interest stories. Over the course of those six days, Phelps attempted to pitch a perfect game underwater and go eight-for-eight.

What made this quest so intriguing was that in a few cases, he would need a little help from his friends. Three of the eight races were four-man relays, and the second race was a relay in which despite Phelps' presence, the French were heavily favored to win. They were even a little cocky. Alain Bernard, the man swimming the final leg for France callously boasted, "The Americans? We're going to smash them. That's what we came here for." Perhaps of more value was the view of NBC analyst Rowdy Gaines, who claimed that, "I put this (race) down on paper a million times and I just see the French winning it every single time."

In short, the American team of Michael Phelps, Garrett Weber-Gale, Cullen Jones, and Jason Lezak, would need their most perfect string of laps to have any chance to compete with the French.

The hope was that the great Phelps would provide an early lead and create a solid cushion, yet he quickly fell behind the powerful Eamon Sullivan of Australia on the opening leg of the race. While Phelps gained ground on Sullivan down the stretch, the Aussies held the lead by three-tenths after one turn.

Weber-Gale was next in the pool for this, his first-ever Olympic swim. Certainly this did not show as Gale made up ground on Australia's Andrew Lauterstein and edged him out for the lead on the turn. By the time Garrett had touched in to end his leg, he had carved a small lead for the U.S. over Australia and France.

The third leg was to be trouble for the Americans, with the slower Cullen Jones in the pool. To no one's surprise, Jones proceeded to swim the slowest leg for the U.S. at 47.65, while Frederick Bousquet of France swam their fastest leg at 46.63. Of course, a full second's difference in swimming means the world, and France had it at their fingertips going into the final leg.

Jones had held down second place with no one else challenging for silver, but the American viewers got a hopeless feeling watching Bousquet pull further and further away near the end of the leg. By the time the much-maligned 33-year-old Jason Lezak entered the pool against the speedster Bernard for France, Lezak was nearly a full body length behind.

Bernard had relished the chance to talk trash and now the world could see why. As Lezak hopelessly chased in pursuit of the Frenchman, Bernard touched the far wall on the turn, ahead of world record pace by over four seconds. Play-by-play man Dan Hicks remarked, "The world record is absolutely going to be shattered here." His next assumption came in saying the Americans should hang on and win the silver medal. More than half a body length behind with one length of the pool left in the race against a world record holder in Bernard, it seemed to be an impossible deficit. Yet just a moment later Lezak began to close the gap.

Suspense built. What had been a rout became a heated one-on-one race down to the end, the two swimmers side-by-side in lanes four and five. Lezak later claimed he felt an unusual late burst of energy. He also took advantage of Bernard's mistake of swimming too close to the barrier, where Lezak could ride the Frenchman's wake and use it to speed him up.

All this culminated in a watershed Olympic moment as America crossed its fingers hoping Phelps' gold-medal hunt was still alive. Hicks cried out almost hysterically, "Here comes Lezak! Unbelievable at the end! He's done it!"

In what has been called one of the greatest relay splits of all-time, Jason Lezak, formerly an over-the-hill everyman of sorts, caught down the great Alain Bernard by eight one-hundredths of a second. Lezak finished his leg at 46.06, the fastest time of any of the 32 swimmers in the relay by more than half a second.

Lezak's heroic lap triggered a wild, raucous celebration on the U.S. platform (not to mention the NBC broadcast booth, where any illusion of neutrality had been shattered along with the world record), and millions more just like it across the country. The United States, they were indeed, at this moment.

For Michael, it would be the second gold of many to come, as he would famously complete his quest for eight. Lezak would even provide another solid assist, finishing off the race for the eighth and final medal in the medley relay.

Often overlooked amidst the drama and suspense was that five of the eight countries broke the previous world record. From start to finish, it was possibly both the highest quality and the most memorable race in the history of Olympic swimming, complete with epic side-stories, trash-talking, and subplots galore, all on the world's greatest imaginable stage.

While it is also notable that Phelps won his seventh gold medal by vanquishing Serbia's Milorad Cavic by one-hundredth of a second in the 100 meter butterfly, it lacked the same memorable dynamic as the relay and certainly did not have the same spine-tingling one-on-one chase scene that concluded Lezak's swim into history.

Michael Phelps most definitely became a legend in those Beijing games, but there will always be a special place in the American heart for Olympic hero Jason Lezak. Michael simply couldn't have done it without him.

Final score: USA 3:08.24 (Gold), France 3:08.32 (Silver), Australia 3:09.91 (Bronze)

Other Olympics Honorable Mentions

• Men's Basketball Gold Medal Game, USA 118, Spain 107, Incredible quality of play for both sides, much closer than final score indicates

Coming soon: The No. 2 and No. 1 games of 2008

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:27 AM | Comments (1)

Owning Up to 2008 NFL Predictions

It's a pretty standard tradition for sports writers to make bold predictions about anything and everything sports related. I've come to realize, however, that it is not that common of a thing for sports writers to say how their predictions went. I made many predictions at the beginning of this NFL season and here I am about to own up to those predictions, fully accepting where I was absolutely dead wrong. So here we go.

NFC North

My predictions:

Green Bay Packers 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Detroit Lions 5-11
Chicago Bears 3-13

Reality:

Minnesota Vikings 10-6
Chicago Bears 9-7
Green Bay Packers 6-10
Detroit Lions 0-16

Overview:

I predicted that this division would be the one to see a champion emerge at .500. Well, I picked the wrong division. Surprisingly, that was the AFC West, not the NFC North.

Green Bay might be the most confusing team in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers played well throughout the year. Their defense created numerous turnovers. They ended the season outscoring their opponents by 39 points (better than Chicago and barely worse than Minnesota at 46) and yet, they were 6-10. The Pack very easily could have carried a record of better than .500 this year and next season, I think they will.

The Vikings were lucky to escape this division above .500, beating the Giants third-stringers for their 10th win. The Vikings were plagued all season by playing to their opponents' level, which meant almost losing to Detroit, the worst team ever. That 12-10 victory was all that kept them above Chicago for division title. I have no idea what to expect from the Vikings in the future. Adrian Peterson remains an all-pro running back, but his fumbles are a real concern. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has been getting some solid interviews at head coaching positions and may be gone next year. The Vikings have a very bad habit of hanging on to the wrong guy. They've lost defensive coordinators such as Tony Dungy and Mike Tomlin to head coaching positions, while hanging onto more ineffective head coaches. Brad Childress may be the most hated NFL head coach in his team's state that continues to keep his job.

Obviously, the Detroit Lions were the most pathetic team in the NFL and perhaps in all of history. Most people figured they'd be bad, but not that bad. Poor performance by Jon Kitna and the trading of Roy Williams stacked the deck against the Lions, but they've since made some promising moves. They fired Matt Millen and Rod Marinelli. I think by next season, Detroit will be back to its standard pathetic 3-13 to 5-11 season instead of its beyond pathetic 0-16.

Chicago was a team that I royally messed up. One of not too many, but I fully admit failing on the Bears prediction. Why did I fail? Two reasons: because Kyle Orton isn't as bad as everyone thought and because Matt Forte came out of nowhere to give the Bears a much-needed boost on offense. If Forte wouldn't have been such a force in his rookie season, I think Orton would have been far worse and the Bears would have struggled to reach 6-10. Forte was most definitely the team's savior. Again, I have no idea what to expect out of the Chicago Bears for next season. An offseason move to secure a decent quarterback would give me much more confidence in their chances.

NFC South

My predictions:

New Orleans 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Atlanta Falcons 3-13

Reality:

Carolina 12-4
Atlanta 11-5
Tampa Bay 9-7
New Orleans 8-8

Overview:

New Orleans had a pretty typical year with the league's best offense and a weak defense. I expected to have a better division record than 2-4, which ultimately kept them out of the playoffs. The Saints are a good team and I expect them to make some solid moves in the offseason to pickup some help on defense.

I actually got pretty close with Tampa Bay, and their meltdown helped that quite a bit. They'll need to invest in a new quarterback and soon. Matt Cassel signing with the Patriots is bad news for the Bucs, who could have used some youth at quarterback. Jeff Garcia and Brian Griese are getting too old and beat-up to lead a team into the playoffs.

I did not expect Jake Delhomme to recover so well from his Tommy John surgery, but he proved to be ready to lead his team to another playoff run. Also, DeAngelo Williams might be the most underrated player in the NFL. Carolina's only home loss all season came to the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs after a bye week. Delhomme did not look like himself in that game and truly laid a giant egg.

My predictions on the Falcons were an epic fail and the most epic of my epic fails. Mike Smith has turned this team around and made them respectable once again. I truly thought Matt Ryan would be a gigantic bust as an NFL starter and I apparently could not have been more wrong thus far. Michael Turner has been a huge help to this offense. He had my vote for MVP. Look for the Falcons to be right in the mix of this very competitive division once again in 2009.

NFC East

My predictions:

Dallas 13-3
New York 11-5
Washington 7-9
Philadelphia 5-11

Reality:

New York 12-4
Philadelphia 9-6-1
Dallas 9-7
Washington 8-8

Overview:

The Dallas Cowboys are probably the most talented team in the NFL, but they are also the team with the least heart and least brains. I honestly believe that if Tony Romo hadn't broken his pinky finger, the Cowboys would be in the playoffs and very little of the bickering and badmouthing would have played out the way it did. Great teams persevere through hard times. The 2008 Dallas Cowboys proved they were not a great team.

The Giants were one of the few teams I felt quite confident with my prediction for. Eli Manning is another person I have been wrong about. Toward the end of the 2007 regular season, I was calling for him to be benched, only to see him excel to a Super Bowl victory and MVP performance. I think the Giants have built themselves a nice program of players with a solid balance talent, heart, and brains. (That is the Giants without Plaxico Burress, not the Giants with Plaxico Burress.)

I was close enough on the Redskins. This team was a bit of a disappointment this season. At every point in the season, each of the NFC East teams looked like they were capable of being an elite team and all but one has shot themselves in the foot at some point. (How interesting that the one team that didn't shoot themselves in the foot had a player shoot himself in the leg?) The Redskins have been the most overlooked team in the NFL who had an absolute meltdown, but theirs was perhaps the worst. 6-2 after the first half of the season, the Redskins managed only to defeat the Pathetic Seahawks by three and the Eagles by seven in the second half of the season. In that time, they lost to good teams, but also to Cincinnati and San Francisco. Now that, my friends, is a meltdown.

The Philadelphia Eagles have been up and down all season long. Is there another team in the NFL that can boast of scoring three points one week and 44 the next? Is there another team in the NFL against the same division rival allowed 41 points, then 6? Donovan McNabb has been erratic and brilliant and stupid and everything in between. I have no idea where this team is going, but any one of their three major meltdowns this season could have rendered them incapable of getting back up, but they outperformed my prediction, proving me obviously wrong.

NFC West

My predictions:

Seattle 10-6
Arizona 9-7
St. Louis 5-11
San Francisco 4-12

Reality:

Arizona 9-7
San Francisco 7-9
Seattle 4-12
St. Louis 2-14

Overview:

The Seattle Seahawks were a major disappointment this season. They also were perhaps the most injury-prone team in the NFL (other than perhaps the Detroit Lions). Another problem was that in between injuries, Matt Hasselbeck was not himself. His statistics were incredibly poor whenever he got a chance to play. But the truth of the matter is the Seahawks underachieved on every single level. In 2007, they scored 393 points and allowed 291. In 2008, they scored 294 and allowed 392, from +102 to – 98, a 200-point swing in one year. That's pretty much can tell you things didn't go well.

Once you accept the fact that the Seahawks are no longer a playoff lock out the NFC West and that they need to revamp quite a bit, we can see a few bright spots. I'd argue the main one is rookie tight end John Carlson. Carlson was quite impressive as a receiver (not so much as a blocker), leading the Seahawks in receptions (55), receiving yards (627), and receiving touchdowns (5). I think he'll soon rise to the heights of the elite tight ends.

Even though I got Arizona's record exactly correct, I almost consider them a loss because of their postseason success. I would never have predicted that. I expected them to be an early exit if they made the playoffs, but they're the last team standing in the NFC. The offseason should prove interesting for the Cardinals. They'll have to decide (much like many other teams) whether or not to keep the young guy (Matt Leinart) on the bench for the wily veteran (Kurt Warner). They'll also have to decide how many running backs to try and woo and keep around. It was difficult keeping J.J. Arrington, Tim Hightower, and Edgerrin James happy week in and week out in 2008. It's interesting that there were only two teams in the entirety of the NFL that went 6-0 in their division and they're both playing in the Super Bowl.

I sincerely thank the St. Louis Rams for showing up for two weeks of the season to beat the Redskins and the Cowboys, essentially keeping them both out of the playoffs. Though I wasn't too far off in predicting their record, I truly did not expect the Rams to be anywhere near as bad as they were. The Rams ranked 31 in scoring offense and 31 in scoring defense. The Rams closed their season losing 10 straight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose another 10 to open 2009 unless some major changes occur.

I would have been dead-on with the 49ers had they not decided to oust Mike Nolan in favor of Mike Singletary. Singletary seems to really have the 49ers pointed in the right direction. I expect them to be a bubble team in 2009 with the Cardinals winning the division once again. The 49ers are a team with decent talent and if Singletary coaches anything like he played, undoubtedly a lot of heart. I would not be surprised to see a dynasty being built under Singletary over the next 10-15 years.

AFC North

My predictions:

Cleveland Browns 12-4
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Baltimore Ravens 7-9
Cincinnati Bengals 4-12

Reality:

Cleveland Browns 4-12
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals 4-11-1

Overview:

The Browns we an incredible disappointment this year. Romeo Crennel looked more incompetent and idiotic than perhaps every coach in history (other than Marty Mornhinweg who elected to kickoff in overtime). It's become clear that Crennel is not a head coach. Derek Anderson was a flop. Brady Quinn initially looked promising, but injury led to him not taking advantage of a pathetic Anderson. The Browns failed offensively, tying St. Louis for the second worse scoring offense in the NFL. Defensively, they improved upon last year, allowing 32 less points, but what good is that when the offense scores 170 less points? It's impossible to say whether or not the Browns will have a shot for a real turn around next season under former New York Jets coach Eric Mangini, but something needs to be done so that Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow stop wasting their talent on this once promising, now pathetic team that scored only 17 touchdowns in 2007 — ouch.

The Steelers did not disappoint this season. They didn't lose a beat from last year under Mike Tomlin, who is quickly rising to the ranks of the NFL's elite coaches. There were concerns early in the year that the Steelers' offensive line was not handling the blitz very well at all. Overall, they allowed 49 sacks and about 8,000 hits on Big Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers will continue to be a major contender for the title for years to come because of their spectacular defense that Mike Tomlin was smart enough not to mess with.

When I predicted the Ravens' outcome for 2008, I did not expect John Harbaugh to be able to hit the ground running as he did. After all, the Ravens were 5-11 in 2007, their defense allowed 384 points, more than it had in the entire decade. Why would things turn around so fast from 384 to 244? Not to mention, who thought Joe Flacco of all people would turn out as a decent quarterback in his rookie season? Certainly not me. If Joe Flacco can continue not making major mistakes and the defense can continue to create turnovers, the Ravens have a very good chance of being contenders again next season.

I was rather close on the Bengals (a whole tie instead of a loss away), but I expected them to be bad where they were mediocre and good where they were bad. The Bengals had the worse offense in the NFL scoring only 204 points. This is mostly due to Carson Palmer missing the majority of the season with an elbow injury, but to drop that much is insane. They nearly halved their point total from the previous year with their defense improving little. It's difficult to say if the Bengals can turn things around or not in 2009, hopefully with Palmer back in the huddle. They did show more than any other poor team, however, that they had heart, winning their final three games.

AFC South

My predictions:

Indianapolis Colts 14-2
Jacksonville Jaguars 12-4
Houston Texans 8-8
Tennessee Titans 6-10

Reality:

Indianapolis Colts 12-4
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
Houston Texans 8-8
Tennessee Titans 13-3

Overview:

The Colts played extremely well toward the end of the regular season. If Peyton Manning would have been healthy right away, I think 14-2 would have been very reasonable, but he wasn't, so I'll accept 12-4. Their early exit from the playoffs was a very big surprise to me. I thought they'd be the ones to knock off Pittsburgh and soar onto the Super Bowl and I was wrong again. Tony Dungy's retirement is a big blow to the organization, but so long as Peyton Manning is at the helm, expect the Colts to be just fine.

The Jacksonville Jaguars join the Cleveland Browns as co-biggest disappointments if 2008. The Jags had established themselves in 2007 as another tough AFC team, focused on running the ball and stopping the run. The only problem was, they weren't able to do either of those things in 2008. David Garrard turned the ball over 13 times in 2008 and while that doesn't seem like a very high number, realize that he only turned it over 3 times in 2007. That Garrard was so dependable with the ball and mistake-free allowed the Jags to make the playoffs in 2007. That he couldn't do so in 2008, paired with Fred Taylor's inability to run the football, cost the Jags a lot of games.

I hit the Texans right on the head. They are a decent team that just needs a bit more out of their quarterback and defense and they'll be poised for the playoffs. Steve Slaton was a very pleasant surprise at running back for the Texans and I personally think he was quite shafted in the Rookie of the Year voting. While Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals is an amazing receiver, I would not put him above Andre Johnson. They might be on the same level as the best receivers in the NFL, but I don't think Fitz is above Johnson quite yet. If Matt Schaub can stay healthy, the Jaguars stay mediocre, and the Colts waver a bit, the Texans could make the playoffs in 2009.

I was utterly surprised by the Tennessee Titans. Perhaps it was the fact that Kerry Collins played instead of Vince Young for the vast majority of the year, perhaps it was the impressive play of Chris Johnson, or perhaps it was the fact that this defense finally played up to its ability, but the Titans looked great in 2008. Their early exit was rather surprising to me, but they did run into one heck of a determined Baltimore Ravens team. Reports are showing that Collins will be back at starting QB in 2009, which I'd argue is a good thing for 2009, but perhaps not for the years beyond. I don't expect them to start the season 10-0 again, but the Titans could very easily find themselves playoff-bound once again in 2009.

AFC East

My predictions:

New England 12-4
Buffalo 10-6
New York Jets 7-9
Miami 4-12

Reality:

New England 11-5
Buffalo 7-9
New York Jets 9-7
Miami 11-5

Overview:

I'm surprised I got so close with the Patriots even after Tom Brady went down in Week 1 with a devastating knee injury. Matt Cassel did a fine job as Brady's replacement and all signs point to Cassel staying with New England as backup, leaving teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota leaning on the draft or on their own mediocre current quarterbacks. I think with Brady at the helm, the Patriots will be right back to the top of the conference. Missing the playoffs on a tie-breaker this season, they very well could have made a run in the playoffs much like the Ravens did.

The Bills started the season much like I'd hoped, but their final 10 weeks were downright pathetic. In the final 10 weeks, they went 2-8, defeating the hapless Chiefs and floundering Broncos. And worse of all, six of the Bills nine losses were division losses. They went 7-3 outside of the division and you just can't make the playoffs with no division wins. The Bills are already at the bottom of the division and they may be looking at staying there, depending on how the Jets can recover from their own meltdown.

The New York Jets are well chronicled as being 8-3, then slipping down the slippery slope to end 9-7 and utterly miss the playoffs. Many have been quick to blame Brett Favre and ask for his second retirement. I do not think Favre should retire, but I don't think he should play for the New York Jets or anywhere that is cold and outdoors. Think about it, every kicker over 40 moves to an indoor stadium and kicks for another couple years. Why wouldn't that work for Favre? It is fairly obvious that his stats in November and December have decreased to rubbish and he's played September and October beautifully. Move indoors, Brett, and enjoy the result.

The Dolphins made a huge turnaround and they exceeded my every expectation. I thought it would take two years for them to return to the playoffs or even get close to them, but Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano know what they're doing and they've done a great job. Chad Pennington was a great success story this year. He's found his rhythm back in Miami and should be solid there for another four to six years. The Dolphins will more than likely be battling the Patriots for the division again in 2009.

AFC West

My predictions:

San Diego 13-3
Kansas City 9-7
Denver 6-10
Oakland 5-11

Reality:

San Diego 8-8
Kansas City 2-14
Denver 8-8
Oakland 5-11

Overview:

I struggled more with the AFC West than any other division. Though the Chargers escaped with a division title, they were far worse throughout their first 12 games than anybody would have expected. L.T.'s lack of production hurt the Chargers for sure and the bickering that's occurring currently between L.T. and the front office is going to hurt them for next season. I think in L.T. we see the need running backs have to not take so much punishment week in and week out. The concept of two solid backs is becoming more and more prevalent throughout the NFL and I think the Chargers should keep L.T. and just make good use of that with Darren Sproles. If they do that, they should be atop the division again in 2009, hopefully better than .500.

I made my boldest prediction with the Kansas City Chiefs and I was most embarrassed by my bold prediction of the Chiefs. I thought Herm Edwards would be able to groom his young team into winners, but the Chiefs blew more leads than perhaps anybody in the NFL. It seemed like every week they started the game up 14-0, only to lose 21-17. They could not preserve a lead, even when their typical horse, Larry Johnson was healthy and not in legal trouble. The Chiefs have yet to hire a new coach and their success in 2009 will depend on how well that individual can work with a young team.

If I can pride myself on one thing in these predictions, it is that I was right about Mike Shanahan's time being up in Denver. He's been a great coach for them, but things were not working as they should have recently and their descent that resulted in them missing the playoffs was quite embarrassing. Things will turn around for the Broncos, but I expect things to get a bit worse before they get better.

I was dead-on with the Raiders. They were an erratic team that would show up one week against a good team and not show up the next week against a poor one. Only one of their wins came against a team that ended the season below .500. The inconsistency at head coach has many people calling for Al Davis to give it up and retire (which I doubt would happen), but it seems like until Davis can let go of a bit of control, the Raiders will continue to compete with Detroit as the league's longest-lasting poor team.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:17 AM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2009

The Best NFL Rookie Class Ever?

This was an amazing season for NFL rookies, particularly on offense. Quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco had two of the greatest rookie seasons we've ever seen at their position. Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton all rushed for 1,000 yards. Two first-year offensive linemen made the Pro Bowl. Was this the best rookie class in history?

Well, it's certainly on the short list. I've ranked the top 12 rookie groups since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. To be fair to this year's group, I focused on rookie performance, but I also considered career achievements, where applicable. For example, Terry Bradshaw had an awful rookie year, but he's obviously a net plus for the 1970 draft class. Deciding what to do with people like Tom Brady was trickier. Brady was technically a rookie in 2000, but he didn't really play until 2001. Does he count in the draft class of 2000, or 2001? Or neither? Ultimately — and I'm sure this will not sit well with some people — I decided on neither. Maybe Colt Brennan, a sixth-round pick for Washington last year, is a future Hall of Famer. He didn't play as a rookie, so we don't know. If someone didn't play as a rookie, or did in very limited action, he is not included here. Sorry, Tom.

Last note before we get to the top 12: players who started their careers in another league (most notably the USFL) do not count toward any class. To take one example, Jim Kelly was drafted in 1983 and first joined an NFL roster in 1986. He doesn't count as part of either year's rookie class. This will be important later.

12. Rookie Class of 2003
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Anquan Boldin and Terrell Suggs

Almost half of my top 12 are from the last decade, and I don't think it's because of any bias on my part. I suspect that free agency has spurred teams into getting their young players involved earlier. In the past, it was common for blue-chip prospects to sit (or play exclusively on special teams) not just for a season, but sometimes for several years. Try that today, and the player's contract will have expired by the time you see what he's got. There are also more teams now, which means more rookies, period. And finally, many colleges now run "pro-style" offenses which facilitate easier transitions for young players.

Anyway, 2003 was a particularly good year for defensive rookies. Suggs had 12 sacks, 4 fumble recoveries, and an interception. CB Terence Newman had an exceptional rookie campaign in Dallas, Kevin Williams got double-digit sacks, Nick Barnett started 15 games at middle linebacker, and Eugene Wilson was a starter for the Super Bowl champion Patriots. This was also the rookie season for Lance Briggs and Troy Polamalu.

Boldin (101 receptions, 1377 yards, 8 TD) was the clear standout on offense, but Houston teammates Domanick Davis (1,000 yards rushing) and Andre Johnson (976 receiving) also had nice debuts. Both Super Bowl teams had rookies starting on the offensive line: Dan Koppen for the Patriots and Jordan Gross for Carolina. The 2003 draft class also included guard Eric Steinbach and tight end Jason Witten.

11. Rookie Class of 2005
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Cadillac Williams and Shawne Merriman

Another one that made the list because of defense. Merriman was a runaway choice as DROY, but in most years, Lofa Tatupu (Pro Bowl), DeMarcus Ware (8 sacks), and Odell Thurman (98 tackles, 5 INT) would have been contenders. Derrick Johnson and LeRoy Hill had nice years at outside linebacker.

Cadillac Williams was the only obvious standout on offense, but tight end Heath Miller had a nice rookie campaign for the Super Bowl champion Steelers. More impressive than offense, for the 2005 rookie class, was special teams. Rookies Justin Miller (KR TD, 26.3 avg) and Pacman Jones (1,127 KR yds, PR TD) were among the most productive returners in the league, and Houston's Jerome Mathis (2 KR TDs, 28.6 avg) was named first-team all-pro as a returner.

10. Rookie Class of 1974
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Don Woods and Jack Lambert

When I started this project, I figured 1974 would be among the top three. The Steelers alone drafted four future Hall of Famers in this class! Unfortunately, only Lambert brought his 'A' game in '74. Lynn Swann and John Stallworth combined for 27 catches, under 500 yards, and 3 TDs, while center Mike Webster split time with Ray Mansfield. Hall of Fame tight end Dave Casper and perennial HOF snub Randy Gradishar have the same story. Casper caught only four passes as a rookie, and Gradishar started only three games. On rookie performance alone, this group wouldn't make the list. But knowing what we do today, I can't leave it out of the top 10.

9. Rookie Class of 1973
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Chuck Foreman and Wally Chambers

This group produced three future Hall of Famers, all on offense. Guard John Hannah got off to a nice start, and today is almost universally seen as the finest guard in history. Joe DeLamielleure was a key member of the "Electric Company", blocking for O.J. Simpson during the first 2,000-yard rushing season in history. The other HOFer, QB Dan Fouts, experienced a less distinguished beginning: a 46.0 rating and an 0-5-1 record as starter.

This was a banner year for rookie RBs. Besides Foreman (1,263 yards from scrimmage), Boobie Clark (1,335) and Terry Metcalf (944) were both among the league leaders. Greg Pruitt, Sam Cunningham, and Otis Armstrong also made their debuts in 1973, and Pruitt made the Pro Bowl as a returner. Receivers Isaac Curtis (843 receiving yards) and Charle Young (854) also made the Pro Bowl, and Young was named all-pro tight end as a rookie. Future all-pro lineman Leon Gray was part of this year's class.

The defensive group this year featured few standout performances apart from Chambers', but it did produce future Super Bowl MVP Harvey Martin, five-time Pro Bowler Brad Van Pelt, and ESPN fixture Tom Jackson.

8. Rookie Class of 1998
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Randy Moss and Charles Woodson

Let's get this out of the way: Woodson is the only elite defender in this group. We're here for the offense. Peyton Manning was a rookie in 1998, but Charlie Batch may have outplayed him. Batch posted one of the best passer ratings ever for a first-year player, and his rookie record for interception percentage still stands. Fred Taylor (1,644 yards from scrimmage, 17 TDs) and Robert Edwards (1,446 YFS, 12 TDs) would have won the Offensive Rookie award in most other seasons. But most seasons, you don't have to go up against Randy Moss, who led the league in scoring and set NFL rookie records for receiving yards and touchdowns. Moss lifted the Vikings to a 15-1 record. Hines Ward was also a rookie in 1998, as were offensive linemen Alan Faneca, Jason Fabini, Jeremy Newberry, and Kyle Turley.

7. Rookie Class of 1988
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: John Stephens and Erik McMillan

After 1988, it was all downhill for Stephens and McMillan. Stephens (1,168 yards) never had another 1,000-yard season, and history has forgotten him in favor of fellow rookie running back Ickey Woods (1066 yards, 5.3 avg, 15 TD). Thurman Thomas (881 yards) went on to the Hall of Fame career Stephens and Woods never did.

McMillan (8 INT, 2 TD) made the Pro Bowl in both of his first two seasons, but was out of the league by 1994. If we could go back in time, Chris Spielman (150 tackles) might win this instead of McMillan. A pair of young cornerbacks, Eric Allen and James Hasty, each had 5 interceptions in 1988, and Michael Dean Perry got 6 sacks and a fumble return for a touchdown, setting the tone for a six-Pro Bowl career. Fellow six-time Pro Bowler Neil Smith was also a rookie this year, but his accomplishments were more modest.

Other high-performing 1988 rookies included offensive linemen Randall McDaniel and Dermontti Dawson, tight ends Keith Jackson and Ferrell Edmunds, plus wide receivers Brian Blades, Tim Brown, Michael Irvin, and Sterling Sharpe. Jackson (all-pro TE) and Brown (led NFL in all-purpose yards) were particularly impressive; Irvin and Sharpe had their best seasons in the '90s. Future Pro Bowl WR Anthony Miller had a promising debut on kick returns (25.9 avg, TD), and rookie QB Chris Chandler (9-4 as starter) actually had a strong first season.

6. Rookie Class of 1986
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Rueben Mayes and Leslie O'Neal

The 1986 rookie class was strong across the board: offense, defense, and special teams. Mayes rushed for 1,353 yards and 8 TD with a 4.7 average. Receivers Bill Brooks and Ernest Givens both broke the 1,000-yard mark. Will Wolford and Tom Newberry made strong debuts on the offensive line. Vai Sikahema and Bobby Joe Edmonds each made the Pro Bowl as returners, and Edmonds was named all-pro.

O'Neal had a fantastic rookie season, with 82 tackles, 12.5 sacks, and 2 interceptions, one of them returned for a touchdown. Charles Haley had 12 sacks, and Tim Harris had 8. Pat Swilling, the 1991 DPOY who finished his career with over 100 sacks, got off to a relatively modest start, with 4 in his 1986 rookie year. John Offerdahl made the Pro Bowl as an inside linebacker with Miami, and rookie DB David Fulcher shook up the league both in coverage and on the safety blitz.

Note that a number of USFL refugees (including Jim Kelly and Herschel Walker) made their NFL debuts in 1986. If we counted them as part of this rookie class, it would rank among the top three. 1985, which also got some big-deal USFL veterans (Reggie White and Steve Young) would make the top 10.

5. Rookie Class of 2008
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Matt Ryan and Jerod Mayo

Is this lower than you expected? Me, too, a little. Blame it on the defense. Mayo was the only real standout, though a few rookie DBs showed promise. This year's class is on the list for its offense. Ryan and Flacco had two of the best rookie seasons we've seen from modern quarterbacks. Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton all rushed for 1,000 yards, and they all did it in style. Forte was a great receiver, Johnson and Slaton averaged almost 5 yards a carry, and all three scored double-digit TDs. Fellow RB Kevin Smith (976 yards, 8 TD) had a pretty good season in Detroit.

The QBs and running backs were the stars of the show, but wide receivers Eddie Royal (91 receptions) and DeSean Jackson (1,008 yards from scrimmage, PR TD) both made key contributions early. Tight end John Carlson (627 yards, 5 TD) looks like a keeper in Seattle. The real rage in the 2008 draft was offensive tackles, with seven going in the first round. Two of them, Denver's Ryan Clady and top overall pick Jake Long, are going to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl. I'm not aware of any other season two rookie offensive linemen made the Pro Bowl.

4. Rookie Class of 2006
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Vince Young and DeMeco Ryans

Don't you kind of wish we could have this one back? Vince Young went 8-5 as a starter, but he had a 66.7 passer rating, and he hasn't visibly developed since the 2006 Rose Bowl. Instead of Young, we could have picked Maurice Jones-Drew (2,250 all-purpose yards, 16 TD), Joseph Addai (1,081 rushing yards, Super Bowl ring), or even Reggie Bush (1,307 YFS, 9 TD). We could have gone with Marques Colston, or Pro Bowl OT Marcus McNeill. And let's not forget Devin Hester, who had 6 return TDs. DeAngelo Williams and Leon Washington certainly weren't OROY contenders two years ago, but both are excellent now.

The defensive side of this group was less stacked, but nothing to be ashamed of. Ryans led the NFL in tackles. Mark Anderson and Kamerion Wimbley got double-digit sacks. A.J. Hawk and Dawan Landry were among the best in the league at their respective positions. Mario Williams and Haloti Ngata were rookies in 2006.

3. Rookie Class of 1996
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Eddie George and Simeon Rice

The famous 1996 receiver class includes (get ready) Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Keyshawn Johnson, Muhsin Muhammad, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer, Joe Horn, Terry Glenn, Eddie Kennison, and Bobby Engram. That is a heck of a group. Harrison, Keyshawn, Glenn, and Kennison got off to particularly strong starts, all picking up at least 800 yards — Glenn had over 1,100. Overshadowed by the receivers, 1996 was also a pretty good year for rookie offensive linemen, including Jonathan Ogden and Willie Anderson. George rushed for almost 1,400 yards.

Defensive rookies this year included Ray Lewis, Zach Thomas, and Brian Dawkins. All three had good seasons, but Rice earned DROY with 12.5 sacks for the Cardinals. Kevin Hardy and Donnie Abraham played very well as rookies in 1996.

2. Rookie Class of 1983
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: Eric Dickerson and Vernon Maxwell

This class is famous for its quarterbacks, with six drafted in the first round. Most notably, that included John Elway, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly. Elway had a decent year, Marino had one of the best rookie seasons ever, and Kelly went to the USFL. If he counted as part of the 1983 class, it might rank as the best ever. This wasn't just a great year for passers, though — check out the running backs: Dickerson (1808 yards, 20 TD), Curt Warner (1449 yards, 14 TD), and Roger Craig (1152 YFS, 12 TD).

Still not impressed? How about receivers? Henry Ellard and Mark Clayton were used mostly as returners, both scoring punt return TDs, but they combined for 11 career 1,000-yard receiving seasons. Now let's talk offensive linemen. Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews began his NFL career in 1983, playing in every game. Jim Covert helped bring Walter Payton back to the forefront of the NFL's greatest rushers. And Chris Hinton, obtained by Baltimore in the Elway trade, made the Pro Bowl as a rookie.

The offense alone would be enough to get this group on the list, but the defense is pretty impressive, too. Greg Townsend and Maxwell had double-digit sacks. This was also the rookie season for Richard Dent, Charles Mann, Karl Mecklenburg, and Darryl Talley. The real strength of the 1983 defensive rookies, though, was the secondary. Hall of Famer Darrell Green immediately established himself as a star, running down Tony Dorsett and starting all 16 games for a defense that led the league in interceptions. Lionel Washington intercepted 8 passes as a rookie. Albert Lewis and Joey Browner were part of this class, as well.

1. Rookie Class of 1981
Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year: George Rogers and Lawrence Taylor

The rookie class of 1981 is not merely the best group of defensive rookies in history. It is by far the best group of defensive rookies in history. No other year is close. No other year is close to being close. Lawrence Taylor won Defensive Player of the Year, in what is widely regarded as the greatest rookie season ever. Ronnie Lott went to the Pro Bowl and won a Super Bowl ring. Fellow HOFers Mike Singletary and Howie Long were rookies in 1981. Kenny Easley, who should also be in the Hall of Fame, had 7 takeaways, including an 82-yard interception return for a touchdown. Everson Walls, undrafted as a rookie, made the Pro Bowl after leading the NFL with 11 interceptions.

That's not all. Rickey Jackson, who went on to a fine career (6 Pro Bowls) is credited — unofficially — with 125 tackles and 8 sacks as a rookie in 1981. That's DROY stuff if you're not going up against Taylor, Lott, and Walls. Eric Wright and Carlton Williamson started all 16 games for the Super Bowl champion 49ers, combining for 11 takeaways.

Dexter Manley is one of the more tragic figures in NFL history, but his career got off to a good start, with (unofficially) 6 sacks, in a career that had over 100. Hugh Green had a good rookie season in Tampa. Hanford Dixon and Dennis Smith were also rookies in 1981.

That defensive group, by itself, is enough to merit serious consideration for the number one position on this list. But let's add a few running backs. Rogers' career was shortened by injuries, but in 1981, he rushed for 1674 yards and 13 TDs. James Brooks was a triple-threat runner, receiver, and returner, leading the NFL in all-purpose yardage. Stump Mitchell led the league in return yards. Tony Collins had 1,100 yards from scrimmage. Freeman McNeil and James Wilder both had good rookie years.

In addition to the RBs, consider WR Cris Collinsworth, who made the Pro Bowl after a 1,000-yard rookie season. Joe Jacoby and Russ Grimm, the best of the "Hogs," were also rookies this season, starting 13 games each.

We saw exceptional rookie performances this season, but the rookie class of 1981 was the greatest in NFL history.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:54 AM | Comments (3)

Cooperstown Calling

Hours before the announcement, I was pretty certain of only one no-questions-asked Hall of Fame selection coming forth last Monday. My certainty was certainly satisfied, but I had, still, ambivalence enough about the second Baseball Writers Association of America selection as the news approached and, at last, arrived. As regards this year's Hall of Fame voting, then, a few observations:

THE MAN OF STEAL — NO QUESTIONS ASKED

I would have felt a lot better if Rickey Henderson — whose career stolen base record is probably one of those records that's going to be difficult if not impossible to break, by the way — had quit while he was really ahead. Specifically, when he finished 2001 with precisely 3,000 hits; no more, no less. Can you think of a kinder way to go to Cooperstown than in Roberto Clemente's company as the only two men in baseball history to have finished their Show careers with exactly 3,000? For his final few seasons, alas, Henderson was the Steve Carlton of position players, hanging on desperately enough, no matter how foolish or even sad he looked doing so.

Notwithstanding, the Man of Steal made long-term, consistent reality out of what Bobby Bonds showed in theory, at least until the booze and the bitterness ate first the credibility and then the talent: that a devastating power-speed combination at the top of the lineup was no fantasy. He was the best in the business at it, ever, over a long enough career spread, though you may care also to note that, on the Bill James-created Hall of Fame monitor for batters, Henderson pulls in with a 183.5 — 83.5 points higher than that with which the average Hall of Famer pulls in. He also meets 53 percent of the James-measured Hall of Fame batting standards, making him a slightly higher than average Hall of Famer.

He wasn't exactly the perfect citizen over his long career. Seek and ye can find, still, stories aplenty about his habit of wondering loud and long whether he wasn't being underpaid within just a few months of his new deals; about his periodic and maddening clubhouse antics (they only begin with the card-playing in the Mets' clubhouse during a postseason series); about whether the foregoing, and one or two other factors, didn't equal keeping his teams from winning at least as often as he helped them win.

But Henderson wasn't exactly the worst individual in the game, either. You can point to teams who unloaded him when they had the opportunity, for various reasons, but you can see quite a few of them willing to have him back, for however long, when they had that opportunity, as well. If nothing else, Henderson further accomplished something in those final, sad hanging-on seasons that many may have thought impossible — he showed, at long enough last, that he really did love the game deeply, and that it wasn't merely a case of learning to say hello when it was time to say goodbye.

Here is what you do remember about the 1993 World Series, for the most part: Mitch Williams throwing Joe Carter a slide whose sole legitimate destination, bottom of the ninth, two on and one out, was the far side of the left field fence. Here is what you may not remember: that was the Man of Steal starting the fateful inning by drawing a four-pitch walk. Williams in the years since has shown at least a shipload of class recalling that inning and his contribution thereto. Because Paul Molitor happened to have set the second duck on the pond for Carter with a one-out single, after midday Monday the Wild Thing earned bragging rights that his murder, and Philadelphia, was achieved by two future Hall of Famers in a four-batter, one-out inning, and there are lesser ways to be waxed than those.

THE RICEMAN COMETH ... AT LAST

As a personal matter, I like seeing Jim Rice going to Cooperstown, even if you cannot put someone there merely to make up for the brutality with which he was treated often enough in Boston, during his prime seasons, any more than you could ignore a) that still ghastly-enough home-road split (I wish to God I could arrange his statistics to make him look that much less like a cliched Fenway hitter); or, b) that he let himself lapse into a shufflefoot small-base hitter even by the time the 1986 World Series rolled around, and that includes accounting for his injuries. (One remembers painfully enough the wondrous rookie who was unable to play in the incandescent 1975 World Series thanks to injury.)

Even sadder is that Rice may also have turned into a clubhouse cancer over his final few seasons, if you consider the following:

There was a feeling of hopelessness before [the 1987 season] began. The team was far from full strength and too many principals were haunted by the memory of the 10th inning at Shea ... There was tension between [Don] Baylor and Rice, and Baylor later said he wanted to fight Rice after "Captain Jim" was discovered in street clothes when he was needed to pinch hit in Anaheim. [Bill] Buckner was released in July, Baylor and [Dave] Henderson were traded for virtually nothing in August and September, and Rice became a lead-footed singles hitter. It was over before it was over...

...One of the reasons [manager John] McNamara wasn't fired earlier in 1988 was because the Sox felt there was no top replacement available. [Successor Joe] Morgan [not to be confused with the Hall of Fame second baseman and radio/television commentator] was simply the handy choice to ride out a lost season...

There is no logical explanation for what happened in the first three weeks of the Joe Morgan administration, but it can be stated without argument that Morgan got off to the most successful start in managerial history. The Red Sox won 12 straight, 19 of 20, and closed a nine-game gap, tying for first [in the American League East] on August 4. The 12-game streak was Boston's longest since 1948, and the Red Sox also broke an American League record by winning 24 straight at Fenway. Twenty-four. The embarrassing "search" for a manager was called off after the first six wins, and Morgan had a contract for 1989 before the streak was over. He also gained the respect of millions of fans by standing up to Jim Rice. The slumping, grumping Rice was insulted when Morgan sent Spike Owen up to hit for him (bunt situation) and pulled Morgan into the dugout runway. An ex-hockey player, Morgan was ready to go at it with the muscular Rice, but players intervened. Morgan emerged from the runway stating, "I'm the manager of this nine."

— Dan Shaughnessy, in The Curse of the Bambino (New York: Dutton, 1990)

Moreover:

Team unity never existed from what I saw around the Sox clubhouse. Much of this problem results from the many years of the Jim Rice reign of the clubhouse. Rice is an evil, envious, jealous person. You can see it in his eyes, all you have to do is walk past him, and you can tell he is thinking nasty thoughts, and if you look back when you pass him, you see him whispering things behind your back to one of his allies. Rice's locker mate in 1986 was Don Baylor, and it didn't take Baylor long to figure out what kind of guy Rice actually was, because by the end of the season, it was obvious the two didn't care for each other. Rice was so hateful of Baylor, because the short period [Baylor] was there, everybody on the team befriended him, and sought advice from him. It was kind of a mockery of Rice, for what he represented by being captain, because nobody had ever dared approach him for anything, because of his mood swings. Rice's personality contributed immensely to team dissension, but he was not the only one responsible.

— Jack Burke, Red Sox batboy and clubhouse worker, during the mid-to-late 1980s, to Shaughnessy, for The Curse of the Bambino

If the foregoing commentary is true you can make something of a case that Jim Rice might have done enough to keep his teams from winning even while he was doing enough of what he could to help them win.

But if Rice really was the most feared hitter of his time, how reconcile the point — isolated by Fox Sports's Joe Posnanski — that he drew 77 intentional walks in his entire major league career, including 72 in his best seasons, 1975-86? Think about that: This is the guy who was supposed to have put the fear of God into pitching staffs the league over, but Chris Chambliss, Warren Cromartie, Bill Madlock, and even Chris Speier received more intentional walks over the same span than the Great Intimidator.

Now, it wasn't Rice's fault that he had good hitters hitting behind him, and the intentional walk is hardly the only or even the best way to gauge the level of respect/fear players and managers had for a player. Rice's Hall of Fame case does not hinge on his menace —as numerous people have pointed out, the man did lead his league in any number of categories from 1975 through '86, including homers, RBIs, and runs scored. He has a strong case, and I feel certain he will go in this year. But I don't think the intentional walk thing is insignificant. I think much of the aura surrounding Jim Rice has built up in more recent years, as memories grow nostalgic.

— Joe Posnanski

I concur, with regret. It all shook out to Jim Rice being borderline, barely, and as the news of the writers' Hall of Fame vote approached it seemed a shame. I couldn't know for certain until the news arrived whether Rice would be right there with Henderson, though I did know for certain it was Rice's final year of BBWAA eligibility, leaving him to the mercies, prospectively, of the Veterans Committee apparatus from Monday forward if denied. I could not really convince myself he deserved the honor but neither could I convince myself, entirely, that he did not.

But Jim Rice — who was far less the brooding man of silence in his heyday than his reputation has allowed (Peter Gammons has written well that you could get Rice to talk your ears off about baseball itself, on the sole condition that you showed him respect as a mere man) — does not disgrace the Hall of Fame by being elected.

MEANWHILE, BACK IN THE JUNGLE...

What of the rest of the men who stood for election or at least remained in the thoughts of those who continue to care about the game and its penultimate honor? Here was where I stood approaching the news and where I remain standing now that the news is past:

HAROLD BAINES — He is the argument that failed to fly against Paul Molitor and probably will (and should) fail to fly against Edgar Martinez: a) Baines did play enough defense in the first two-fifths of his career to show you evidence aplenty why the only way he could stay in Major League Baseball was his bat; b) He had a better-than-average career as a hitter, and he was better than useful in several postseasons, but he came up as Martinez does not — too far short of the Jamesian Hall of Fame batting standards and batting monitor to be considered seriously.

JAY BELL — He was an above-average defensive shortstop, but not far enough above to make him a Hall of Fame case by his glove alone.

BERT BLYLEVEN — He should have been a Hall of Famer already. Hurt too much by his home parks, a case I have made since, oh, 2002-03, but I think that if the Dutchman could have pitched even one additional season in even a neutral park, beyond the very few such seasons he actually did get to work in a neutral or pitchers' park as his home park, he would have been a 300-game winner and an unignorable Cooperstown candidate, however much you prefer to think that 300 wins as an absolute benchmark is foolish compared to looking at a pitcher's entire game.

Blyleven in one way is Warren Spahn without the Cy Young Award or the run of 20-win seasons, granting that Blyleven pitched at a time when 20-win seasons became more difficult to compile than Spahn's era had been: Spahn's career looks far, far more like a no-questions-asked Hall of Fame career when you examine its depth (career value) than it does when you examine its height (peak value). Blyleven's career looks the same way.

Did you realize how deadly Bert Blyleven was in the postseason? He's 5-1/2.47 ERA lifetime in the postseason, and that includes a 2-1/2.35 jacket for the World Series. There are a lot of Hall of Famers who wish they looked that good in October. By the way, Blyleven had just about the third most monstrous curve ball I have seen in a lifetime of baseball watching, behind Sandy Koufax and Dwight Gooden, and in that order. That Blyleven enjoyed such a long career throwing that pitch is remarkable enough in its own right.

ANDRE DAWSON — He was a great player and an exemplary man, but can we really ignore that rock-bottom on-base percentage, even allowing him as primarily a power hitter; or, that extremely dubious Most Valuable Player award he did win in 1987, the mere three top-10 MVP finishes he had otherwise, or the point that twice he finished second in the voting and couldn't be said to have deserved it more than the men (Mike Schimdt, Dale Murphy) who did win those two awards?

One day, I think no, you can't; however, the next day, I think, well, maybe, somehow ... if Andre Dawson doesn't end up as the most on-the-fence-inspiring Hall of Fame candidate of his time (perhaps of all time), I think I might be surprised only slightly more than he might be.

While examining his record yet again I noted that the Hawk's nearest statistical comp is Billy Williams, a Hall of Famer to whom he has more than a surface resemblance as a player overall. About the only thing these two have in common is:

a) Three top-10 MVP finishes out of about eight or nine seasons in which they were thought to be MVP candidates. Sweet Swingin' Billy never did win the award, but then you don't have to reconcile a chance of him winning one that he didn't exactly deserve, either.

b) Dawson per 162 games, lifetime: 183 runs produced, 27 home runs, 98 runs batted in, 37 non-homer extra base hits, grounded into 13 double plays. Williams per 162, lifetime: 188 runs produced, 28 bombs, 96 runs batted in, 34 non-bomb extra base hits, grounded into 13 double plays.

That is not to make the disreputable enough case of "If this guy's in then that guy should be in, too" here. But consider that Williams finished his career with 6.5 runs created per game, compared to 5.4 per game for Dawson. That's really a slight edge for Williams, who also pulls in 4.5 points higher on the Hall of Fame batting monitor and about 4.2 higher for meeting the Hall of Fame batting standards.

Williams never got to play in the postseason (and it wasn't his fault when his teams didn't quite make it there, despite a few very memorable pennant races, 1969 in particular) until he was just about finished, and then he was barely a presence, playing three games, but going 0-for-7 for the 1975 Oakland Athletics. But Andre Dawson did get to the postseason, when he still had life enough and then some in him, with the 1981 Montreal Expos and the 1989 Chicago Cubs. And he didn't look very good at all: he has 11 postseason hits in 15 games lifetime, all but two of them singles; he has 3 runs scored and 3 driven in (all three in 1989), but only once does any of his postseason on-base percentages beat his career OBP (the 1981 division series, strike-season version, in which he compiled a whopping .333).

Dawson was a great outfielder before the injuries finally ground him down; he didn't win 10 Gold Gloves by casting them in his basement. He was a wonderful all-around player, and he was the kind of person you'd want on your team whether he was playing well or playing barely his weight. One minute I think he doesn't quite make the Hall of Fame cut, the next minute I do. It is not entirely an unattractive dilemma.

MARK GRACE — If the Cubs had been smart enough to bat people where there hitting skills and not their field positions mandated (and, in fairness, they are hardly the only organization that lacks this vision), Grace might have been an obvious Hall of Famer; at least, he might well have piled up a few more statistics that would have pushed him no questions asked into the realm of the average Hall of Famer. He had the skills of a number two hitter ... but he played first base, which got him plugged into the number three spot. (Come to think of it, imagine Ryne Sandberg's final statistics if he, with the skills of a number three or four hitter, hadn't been batted second in the lineup because he was a second baseman.)

Grace was a charming personality and a terrific player, not to mention a genuine team player. And will Arizona Diamondbacks fans (who now get to enjoy the witty Grace as a broadcaster) ever forget the night he took one for the team (September 2, 2002), went out and pitched the top of the ninth — on a night the Los Angeles Dodgers were obliterating the Snakes — surrendering one run (on a bomb, by Cody Ross; said Grace, "His first major league home run and he gets it off Mark Grace — I feel sorry for that kid"); getting three fly outs, regardless, including to spare part Tyler Houston (I've known Tyler Houston awhile, and I have bragging rights on him forever); and, having the Dodgers (including their legendary announcer Vin Scully) rollicking with the rest of the BOB [as it was then known] mob, when he uncorked a dead-on impersonation of ancient reliever Mike Koplove's troll-like sign-reading visage and posture that had even Koplove himself in tears laughing...

TOMMY JOHN — He belongs in Cooperstown, as a pioneer as much as a pitcher. (As a pitcher, he comps to Jim Kaat, who also belongs.) It's Tommy John who first agreed to the surgery that has long since borne his name; it's Tommy John who went on to prove the surgery's viability, and career preservation prospect, by enjoying a long enough life as an excellent pitcher following his recovery.

I suspect a lot of the view, too, falls along a line such as this: Tommy John (who was a three-time 20-game winner) looks dubious falling 12 wins short of 300 in a 26-season career. But did you know that T.J. has a better winning percentage than Nolan Ryan, who pitched one season longer, has more than twice the strikeouts, and all those no-hitters in the bargain? I'm not about to say that if Nolan Ryan is in, Tommy John should be in, even if I think Nolan Ryan may be the most overrated pitcher in the Hall of Fame (calm down, it doesn't mean he doesn't belong there), and I'm pretty certain that there may be those remembering how they pondered the subterfuge prospects in matchups between John and Gaylord Perry, but I think T.J. belongs in his own right.

SPEAKING OF KITTY — Jim Kaat should be a Hall of Famer, too, but Bill James has him pegged right: he doesn't resemble a Hall of Famer until you rearrange his best seasons a trifle. You don't exactly resemble a great pitcher when your best seasons coincide with the monster seasons other guys happen to be having. In Kitty's case, they only begin with his being the best pitcher in the American League in the year Sandy Koufax was going out with a 27-game-winning, 312-strikeout, 1.73 ERA bang, and taking the third and last of the one-across-the-board Cy Young Awards.

... Kaat had many quality seasons in his career between 1962, when he went 18-14 and led the American League with 5 shutouts, and 1975, when he won 20 games for the third and final time. His best years are spread out, and lose some of their impact because of that.

Kaat has basically the same career record as Robin Roberts. He won 16 Gold Gloves, and is now a fine broadcaster. I think he should be in the Hall of Fame, and I think he will get there sooner or later.

— Bill James, in The Politics of Glory: How the Hall of Fame Really Works (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994; republished as Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? Baseball, Cooperstown, and the Politics of Glory, New York: Fireside Books, 1995)

The problem now is that Kaat belongs in the hands of the Veterans Committee apparatus. Perhaps they will redress his place where the BBWAA couldn't and didn't.

DON MATTINGLY — He's Dale Murphy as a first baseman, though his home-road differential is far better. His injuries buried him well enough to have kept him out of solid Hall of Fame contention, but he was the best all-around first baseman in the American League until the injuries began chipping away at him in earnest.

DALE MURPHY — He's Jim Rice without the reputed attitude problems: he has too wide a home-road split, with the home park in his peak seasons being a too-yummy hitters' park, to allow you to look at him without reservation as that great a hitter, and he was likewise curtailed by injuries at a peak near enough to when Rice was curtailed. But if you were picking Hall of Famers according to character alone, though, Murphy would have been a Hall of Famer in his first eligible year.

MARK McGWIRE — Yes, he has been punished enough, for the evidence of things not seen. For the evidence of things seen, we might try to remember:

a) That actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances have not, really, been proven to enhance much more, if anything, than muscle mass, which is not by itself equal to no-questions-asked intergalactic long-ball power.

b) That androstendione — which McGwire by his own admission used primarily for muscle replenishment (you'd think muscle replenishment was of itself a crime, sometimes), rather the way earlier baseball generations popped the greenies for stamina replenishment — was not illegal when he was using the substance, which use he did, after all, cease and desist after it was first revealed.

Did we really forget McGwire was a murderous bombardier before 1998? We sure did (and still do) forget that he actually could do a few other things well. (You want to carp on his strikeouts? Tell that to Reggie Jackson.) Before his injuries began to chip away at him, McGwire was actually a good first baseman who might have bagged more than one Gold Glove (quick: how does such a mono-dimensional lug bag even one?) if Don Mattingly hadn't all but owned the American League's franchise on the prize in seasons for which McGwire could well enough have won.

Well, I suppose, why not? Say what you will about Barry Bonds, but one of the easiest things to forget about him was that he did have tape-measure home run power from his collegiate days. It was his power-speed combination that deked baseball people into thinking him the second, superior coming of his old man; it was the Pittsburgh Pirates' foolish insistence on seeing the combine and assuming "Bobby, Jr." that got the younger Bonds locked up in a leadoff role that didn't even begin to exploit the depth of his talent, keeping Bonds from displaying his prodigious offense — until he all but badgered them into letting him in the middle of the order — long enough before he did or didn't think about any kind of medicinal enhancements.

You want to continue the nonsense about tainted records? First, you should rebuke a source in impeccable position to know — Kevin Maris, one of Roger Maris's sons, who once said he believed baseball should investigate actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances whole-hogger. The younger Maris (who thinks Bonds remains the legitimate single-season home run king: "You've still got to put the bat on the ball") has told former Boston Globe writer Gordon Edes there is no resentment, whatsoever, about McGwire smashing the record that nearly smashed his father.

I saw a little more talk about McGwire being made to apologize before he'll get anything more than a continuing Hall of Fame snub. Apologize for what? For using a substance that was lawful when he used it? For being accused without trial or conviction of a chemical regimen that may or may not have done a blessed thing for him in the long run? For taking perhaps the absolute wrong legal advice as he delivered that sickening performance to the House Committee on Sending Swell Messages to Kids? (Thank you again, Mr. Will?) All without a shred of evidence such as a positive test to proclaim him once and for all a chemical production? Is this about cleaning baseball up, for real; or, is this comparable to those legendarily abusive police officers who seemed more interested in beating their prisoners senseless than in actually getting valuable or productive information out of them regarding their accomplices or masterminds?

Nobody — I mean, nobody, not even his worst enemy, not even Jose Canseco himself (whose credibility is so shot to pieces, anyway), has ever accused Big Mac of being clubhouse cancer. Nobody ever took a baseball bat to his locker-mounted boom box; nobody ever wanted to fight him in the clubhouse, after repeated loafing on the field, only to discover not one of their teammates would back him up; nobody has ever emerged from the bowels of any clubhouse from which McGwire ever emerged to say he wishes death upon the slugger who now lives in self-imposed exile in southern California, perhaps praying for an absolution that he shouldn't have to grovel to receive.

Ever.

He's about as genuine a guy as you'll ever meet. People talk about the other stuff, but everybody makes a bad choice at times, but that doesn't take away the type of person he truly is. One bad choice shouldn't scar you forever.

— Kevin Maris

If the choice to which Maris alludes was andro, bear in mind that it was not necessarily thought to be a steroid precursor until after McGwire was discovered to have used it, several years after the first rumours of a steroid presence in baseball wafted forth. If the choice was McGwire's incredible shrinking Capitol Hill performance, it's well past time to quit holding against him that his legal counsel was a step above Flywheel, Shyster, and Flywheel without being half as funny.

McGwire in exile has not walked around, groaning to anyone who will listen, that he's baseball's wronged man. Unlike others of which one can think who actually did break baseball rules at the time they were, actually, rules. Or, some others who decided to blow the whistle believing they were baseball's wronged men, only to blow with enough off-key tones as to call their credibility into question however right they were that baseball had a serious problem with actual or alleged PEDs.

JACK MORRIS — I'm still on the fence here, too. I still can't really reconcile Morris's reputation as a big-game pitcher to his actuality as a pitcher who may well have pitched to the score preponderantly enough, leaving his wins to reflect his teammates' as much if not slightly more than his own performances. And yet ... and yet ... Morris right now is the Andre Dawson of pitchers, without Dawson's reputation for wonderfulness: one minute you think no, the next you think yes, and the dilemma is not unattractive.

The classic dumb move of Morris's career: going on a kind of tour to feel out his market, at the onset of the first collusion, and meeting the Minnesota Twins in a rather expensive-looking winter fur. On the other hand, it wasn't even half as stupid as the day Lou Whitaker showed up for a bargaining session during the 1994 strike in a stretch limousine. Jack Morris may have behaved like a mercenary over the final half of his career, but he wasn't that dim.

And though I think the world of his surreal 10-inning, Game 7, 1991 World Series-winning shutout, I know where I saw one better — Sandy Koufax's nine-inning, Game 7, 1965 World Series-winning shutout — and I'll tell you what made Koufax's game just that much better:

a) With his usually surreal curve ball a dead issue by that point of the season, and an arthritically compromised arm tired enough to make gripping a forkball (his periodic change-of-pace offering) problematic, Koufax worked with nothing left but a fastball that only mimicked its infamous self.

b) He worked on two days' rest for the second time in just over a week, having pitched the pennant clincher on two days' rest.

c) He was medicated heavily enough to leave him a little bit high and enough at the mercy of a line drive back up the pipe to take his head off if he couldn't and didn't react with customary swiftness.

It is no disgrace to Jack Morris to say he wasn't quite in Sandy Koufax's league.

DAVE PARKER — Cocaine use and injuries sapped him from solidifying a Hall of Fame case; he was certainly on the proper route before those matters occurred. But if you want to found a Hall of Fame for good people who really do learn from their foolishness, Parker would probably go in the inaugural class, with Tim Raines right by his side. Parker cleaned up and once again became clubhouse class, strong-arm division, especially on one of those late-1980s Oakland Athletics teams.

Where is Dave Parker when you need a clubhouse enforcer? The A's always knew, sooner or later, they'd need Big Dave to quell a cellblock riot, just as the '77 Reds desperately missed Tony Perez after they traded him. In '88 [Jose] Canseco popped off about beating the Dodgers in five games. The Dodgers won in five. In '89 Parker promised to clean, stuff, and mount Jose if he spoke above a whisper. The A's swept. Now Dave's gone, Jose predicted a sweep. General manager Sandy Alderson makes a lot of good moves, but saving money on Parker may have cost him a world title.

— Thomas Boswell, Washington Post, October 22, 1990; republished as part of "1990: Hubris, The Sequel," in Cracking the Show (New York: Doubleday, 1994)

TIM RAINES — Don't knock the Rock. You may want to murder me for what I am going to write here, but Allen Barra (in Clearing the Bases) was absolutely right: Raines's 15 best seasons shake out as being better than the 15 best of a should-be Hall of Fame player who was practically his match, a switch-hitter with a little power who extorted his way on base and hit early in the lineup.

The player is Pete Rose.

Barra cited Total Baseball's estimate of the 15 best seasons by Rose and Raines and shook them out thus: it took Rose 204 games more to reach base 34 more times a season than Raines in the career shakeouts, and to produce 9.3 more runs per season.

... That Rose had to play in 204 more games to do that convinces me that Raines was, perhaps, more skilled than Rose in the art of producing runs. The question is, does Rose's durability automatically make him more valuable? After all, he did accumulate more total runs.

Actually, the question is a great deal more complex than that. First of all, although he played alongside some fine hitters as Gary Carter and Andre Dawson, Raines had nothing like the career-long quality of teammates that was afforded to Pete Rose. Rose played nearly all his best years on the Reds with ... teammates such as Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez, and Dave Concepcion, and on the Phillies, he batted in front of Mike Schimdt and Greg Luzinski. Given Raines's greater home run total and far superior speed, I think if he batted in front of the same hitters Rose had, he would have produced not only more runs, but significantly more runs per season — and, remember, that's in 200 fewer games. Second, think of how many fewer outs Raines would have used up to produce those runs, and how many more runs those outs would have produced spread around the lineup.

This isn't even beginning to consider the point that Raines probably hung up an uncounted extra parcel of runs by his more consistent ability to go first to third or second and even first to home on base hits, an ability Rose didn't always have despite his reputation as diving Charlie Hustle.

The Rock's big problem is that he didn't leave a glaring statistical benchmark by which to judge him, not even the 200-hit season. On the other hand ... so what of it? Do you think a decade of 200-hit seasons equals an automatic, no-questions-asked great hitter? Then why would you consider as mediocre hitters one Hall of Famer who had measly six 200-hit seasons; a second Hall of Famer who had three such seasons; a pair of Hall of Famers who had exactly one such season; and another pair of Hall of Famers who had exactly no such seasons? Now, tell me you plan to argue that Pete Rose was a greater hitter than Stan Musial (the six), Babe Ruth (the three), Willie Mays (one), Frank Robinson (one, too), Ted Williams (never), or Mickey Mantle (neither did he).

Better, still, tell me why you would think Pete Rose was a better hitter than a guy who was his near-equal skill-set player but, over their fifteen best seasons each, reached base more often, used less outs to get there (ponder, too, that Raines was so good at wringing out walks he wouldn't have put up 3,000 hits even without losing so much time to cocaine addiction — to which he copped and sought treatment on his own — and lupus), hit with a little more power, produced quite a few more runs, and had hugely superior speed?

"Simply put," Barra concluded, "all the indications are that under the same conditions and in the same situations, Tim Raines would have produced at least as many and probably more runs than Pete Rose. That's not going to make him as hot an item on the autograph circuit as Pete Rose, but it ought to be good enough to get Tim Raines a plaque at Cooperstown..."

Indeed it ought. But you don't have to make such a might-have-been case for Raines. What was should be enough.

LEE SMITH — Yes, he was dominant for a long enough time, but there were reasons why teams couldn't wait to unload him at the first available opportunity. You probably don't remember that the Cubs, with whom he first established his rep, swapped him to the Boston Red Sox for ... Calvin Schiraldi and Al Nipper, two pitchers who had spent 1987 trying to shake off their respective strafings in the 1986 World Series. The deal inspired Frank Robinson to crack, "The Cubs traded a horse and they came away with two ponies."

Why were the Cubs shopping perhaps the best closer in the National League, or at least one of the top three; and, why would they have taken a deal like that, for a pair of shell-shocked pitchers — one still a youngster, one a veteran — whose major league careers ended up finished, comparatively, before they really began? Dan Shaughnessy cited Jim Frey, the Cubs' general manager who made the deal, as saying the Cubs had come to question Smith's health and attitude: "You get tired of hearing him say [12-letter compound euphemism for "maternal fornicator"] every time you walk into the clubhouse."

Smith may also be hurt among the voters by a long career in which he turned up in the postseason only twice, got into two games each, saved one but lost two others, and shook out with a cumulative 8.44 ERA for his effort — both within the first nine years of his career — without ever appearing in the postseason again. That isn't Smith's fault by any means — the dilemma of a great closer is that his team has to get the game his way in the first place — but it may be a factor. I note him inching a little higher in the Hall voting each year, though...

ALAN TRAMMELL — Long, excellent career, photo-finish Hall of Fame case. I am not entirely convinced you can cross him safely over the border, but neither am I convinced that you cannot.

THE VAUGHNTED — Greg Vaughn? Too single-dimensional despite his gaudy power numbers. And those numbers are not really enough to make him Cooperstown material. Cousin Mo? He might have forged a Hall case, if he hadn't eaten and injured himself out of baseball (and, perhaps, in that order) when he was still, arguably enough, at peak power.

MATT WILLIAMS — Comes up far too short, for all his talent and all of what he did do on the field and at the plate. By the way, if you think Andre Dawson has a perception problem thanks to his low on-base percentage, just have a gander at Williams's...

NOW, WHAT ABOUT THE GUY THE VETS PUT IN?

JOE GORDON — He had a Hall of Fame case long before the current configuration of the Veterans Committee apparatus voted him in for 2009. You could debate whether Gordon was the absolute best player not in the Hall, among those to whom only a Veterans Committee vote now applied, but now that Gordon is going in there may be little enough argument that Ron Santo — who, like Bert Blyleven, should have been a Hall of Famer already — is the absolute best all-around player among Veterans Committee candidates who still isn't in.

Offensively, and adjusting for one man's wide enough home-road split (and both men's losing a couple of prime seasons to World War II), Gordon was the same player as Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr (who also needed the Veterans Committee to bring him in), with equivalent fielding skills (Doerr's probably remembered more as a dangerous hitter than as a swift and rangy second baseman) and numbers; and, with diametrically opposite home-road splits — Doerr (Fenway Park) has a hugely better home hitting record, while Gordon (Yankee Stadium, Cleveland's Memorial Stadium) hit better when he got away from his two home parks.

"The voters," James has written, "weren't sophisticated enough to see through the statistical illusions created by the fact that Doerr played in Fenway Park. They let the stats fool them."

DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT...

In the event that there might be those, as usually, ready to shoot their little arrows of irrelevancy with his name attached thereto, let us get it out of the way right now: Pete Rose does not belong in any Hall of Fame discussion, whatsoever, period-dot-period, until or unless the Hall of Fame changes its 1990-91 ruling that no player on baseball's ineligible list can be considered eligible for Hall of Fame candidacy.

The Hall of Fame passed that rule because there was a very real chance of the BBWAA of 1990-91 electing Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame in spite of his being banned from baseball, an election that would have traduced a long-standing tradition (it was never a formal rule but it was honored among generations of voting baseball writers) that those on baseball's ineligible list wouldn't be elected to the Hall of Fame assuming they had the records to justify their election. (I can think of at least two such players prior to Rose, both teammates on the infamous 1919 White Sox, who would have been no-questions-asked Hall of Famers but for the scandal: Joe Jackson and Eddie Cicotte.)

Do you really want to explain why someone who isn't eligible to wear a uniform or hold any job in organized baseball anywhere, for anyone, or who needs special dispensation just to show up in a ballpark, should be eligible to receive the highest known honor in the game, even if the Hall of Fame is not in and of itself a division or branch of formally organized professional baseball?

Should Rose be in the Hall of Fame? Of course he should. His overall record supports it, even if I happen to believe that there but for the grace of breaking Ty Cobb's lifetime hits record should he have waited a couple of years past year one to get in. He has a Hall of Fame record but, absent Cobb, I'm not completely convinced he would have been or should have been a first-ballot pick. Second, perhaps? Third, surely.

But should Rose be in the Hall of Fame in spite of being banished from baseball still? No way.

"Pete Rose isn't banned from baseball because he's a bad person. He's banned because he broke the rules," James has written. "As Tom Heitz says, the problem with Pete Rose isn't that he gambled. The problem is that he broke the rule against gambling ... [y]ou don't begin the rehabilitation of [Pete Rose] by putting him in the Hall of Fame. That's where you end it."

That's where you hope the discussion might have ended a long enough time ago, too.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:26 AM | Comments (0)

January 26, 2009

In the Rotation: NBA Week 13

Last Thursday, the starters for the All-Star Game in Phoenix on February 15th were announced. The starters for the Western Conference team are Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, Amar'e Stoudemire, Kobe Bryant, and Chris Paul.

For the Eastern Conference team, they are Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Allen Iverson.

The all-star reserves will be announced on Thursday of this week.

During the Lakers and Spurs game on Sunday afternoon, ABC's Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson each picked the seven players that they'd choose as reserves for the all-star game on February 15th in Phoenix.

Jackson and Van Gundy, paired with play-by-play guy Mike Breen, make up the most likable and knowledgeable announcing team in basketball. That being said, their criteria for choosing all-stars are extremely flawed.

Both men seemed to agree that playing on a winning team is the most important factor when deciding who should fill out the remaining roster spots on the all-star teams.

My question to them is: why?

Why does playing average basketball on a good team make you more worthy to play among the greatest in the world than playing great basketball on a lousy team?

Two things are true about Kendrick Perkins: he is the starting center for the defending champs and he averages 8.6 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. How does either of those things qualify him to be an all-star?

Yet Mark Jackson had him as a reserve on his list.

I'm going to steal Mark Jackson's own catchphrase to sum up this one: you're better than that.

I agree that team record should be a factor when considering reserves, but one that should really only be used in a tiebreaker type situation.

In my opinion, the NBA playoffs is a three-month event to showcase the players and teams that have had the most success during the season.

The All-Star Game should be the one night in the year that features the greatest basketball players in the world, regardless of their team's record. Good players on great teams will have their moment to shine this spring. For great players on bad teams, February's All-Star Game is their one and only chance to show the world what they can do under the bright lights.

In today's Starting Five, we throw out the notion that all-star reserves need to come from winning teams take a look at five players having all-star worthy seasons while playing for exceptionally bad teams.

Starting Five

1. Kevin Durant

To me, Durant not being named an all-star would be the biggest snub of the season. The only thing that could even remotely hinder his chances of being on the West all-star team is the fact that the Thunder are a putrid 9-35 entering this week.

That's certainly not Durant's fault.

Durant's 24.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 86% free throw shooting by itself should be enough to make him an all-star. But his season averages don't begin to tell the whole story of how good Durant has been.

In his last game, Durant scored 46 points, grabbed 15 rebounds, had 5 assists, made a franchise-record 24 free throws (on 26 attempts), and even added 2 steals and a block for good measure.

Guess what? The Thunder lost to the Clippers 107-104 in that game.

I ask you: is it because Kevin Durant isn't playing at an all-star level that the Thunder struggle, or is it because he has no help?

You'd have to be blind, dumb, or both to not see that the trouble in OKC is the supporting cast, and Durant shouldn't be punished for that. He deserves to be an all-star, regardless of what his team's record is.

2. Danny Granger

Granger's season has played out very similar to how Durant's season has played out: gaudy numbers for a terrible team.

But there has been one notable exception for Danny Granger: he hits big shots. Lots of them.

Not only has Granger been an absolute scoring machine for the Pacers (his 26.1 points per game has him fourth in the league), he's also been one of the most clutch shooters in the league this season.

His ability to come through in big spots was on full display on MLK Day as his three-pointer with 2.5 seconds left tied the game (he was trumped by Chris Paul moments later hitting a three of his own) and just added to his already lengthy resume of clutch shots.

The Pacers may only have 16 wins this season, but without the fourth leading scorer and one of the best clutch shooters in the NBA this season, that total would be much, much lower.

Based on that, Granger sounds like a no-brainer for the all-star team to me.

3. Emeka Okafor

Based on the rule that says that you have to take a backup center, Okafor is really the only option in my opinion for the Eastern Conference all-star team. Now, if the coaches get creative and decide to use Chris Bosh as their choice for backup center, I don't think anyone will complain. He deserves to be an all-star, and if it opens the door for another deserving forward to claim a spot (Granger for example), I'm all for it.

However, if the coaches decide to go by the book and vote for only true centers, you almost have to go with Emeka Okafor.

Okafor is second among Eastern Conference centers in points and rebounds behind Dwight Howard, leads East centers in field goal percentage, and is third in blocks (behind Howard and Brook Lopez).

However, as I mentioned earlier, Mark Jackson gave this roster spot to Kendrick Perkins based on the fact that the Celtics have the best record in the east.

In no way does it make any sense to me to reward the fifth best player on his team because the other four starters are good enough to beat opposing teams.

If the best reason you can find to keep Emeka Okafor off the all-star team is because he doesn't play alongside three Hall of Famers, then it probably means that Emeka Okafor should be an all-star.

4. Al Jefferson

Shaquille O'Neal will almost certainly get the nod as the backup center in the West, whether it'll be a sort of lifetime achievement award or not is debatable, but I fully expect him to make the team. The game is in his home city, the idea of reuniting Shaq, Kobe Bryant, and Phil Jackson is too enticing, and everyone loves Shaq.

The good news about Shaq being named the backup center in the West: the chances of seeing someone wear a ridiculous fedora to All-Star Saturday will increase exponentially.

The bad news: someone more deserving of an all-star spot will be left off.

In this case, that more deserving player is Al Jefferson.

Jefferson enters the week as the NBA's ninth leading scorer, seventh leading rebounder, and 15th-best shot blocker. He is the only player in the league that is in the top 15 in all three of those categories.

However, Minnesota's 14-27 start has Jefferson's monster season going virtually unnoticed. Even though the T'Wolves are 8-2 since Kevin McHale took over as head coach, their record will ultimately be the deciding factor that will most likely have Jefferson watching the all-star festivities from home again this year.

5. David Lee

Lee may be the most the player least likely to make the all-star team on this list, but consider this: there are only 10 players in the league that are averaging a double-double right now and Lee is one of them.

Lee is fourth in the league in rebounding at 11.5 per game and has been the most consistent player on the Knicks, achieving a double-double in 32 of the 43 games he has played this season.

And while the Knicks' 18-25 record isn't going to help Lee gain any votes from the coaches, the Knicks sit just 2.5 games back of Milwaukee for the eighth and final playoff spot in the east.

He may not be the flashiest player on the floor, but Lee's hard work and consistency night in and night out is far more valuable to his team than he gets credit for, and it would be a nice surprise to see someone awarded a spot on the all-star team for his work ethic and grit rather than for his marketability.

In the Rotation: Chris Paul

Paul doesn't make the rotation this week for doing anything other than being himself. A late push in the voting has CP3 now starting (rightfully so) at guard in the West as opposed to the undeserving Tracy McGrady.

It's important that Paul starts the game for two reasons. First, the All-Star Game is only as good as the point guards who control them, and no one is better at controlling a game from that position than Chris Paul. If McGrady had won the second starting guard spot, the West would have no true ball handler starting the game and the quality of play would have definitely suffered.

Secondly, T-Mac has no business being on the team in the first place. He's averaging just 15.4 points per game and has played in only 29 of the Rockets 43 games. He's been a solid contributor for the Rockets when he actually plays, but in a conference that features so many superstars (more specifically superstar guards), there is no place for a solid contributor on the all-star team.

Out of the Rotation: Fan Voting

This isn't the first time that fan voting has been out of the rotation, but I have a feeling it might be the last.

The fans already screwed up by voting Allen Iverson as one of the starting guards for the East, but things could have been a whole lot worse. At least Iverson is a Hall of Famer with great star power, even if his 2009 stats aren't worthy of an all-star appearance.

Yi Jianlian finished third in the voting for East forwards, and Bruce Bowen finished third in the West. It would have been an absolute disgrace if either of these role players were to even make the team, let alone start.

After such close calls, I would be shocked if David Stern didn't alter the voting process starting next season to ensure that we never have a situation arise where someone completely undeserving makes the all-star team simply because they have a big international following.

The All-Star Game is the league's best showcase of how freakishly athletic and gifted the best players in the NBA truly are. It'd be a shame if instead of watching these athletes we got stuck with a below-average player stealing a spot form someone more deserving, and I have a feeling David Stern will use this season as a wakeup call to ensure that it never happens.

Inactive List: ESPNNEWS' Magic/Phil interview

For a piece that aired during halftime of the Lakers and Spurs game Sunday, ABC had Lakers legend and Hall of Famer Magic Johnson interview Lakers Hall of Fame Head Coach Phil Jackson. What transpired was a lot of coachspeak and vague answers that we've come to expect from Jackson over the years.

But you wouldn't know it if you didn't actually watch the interview.

In what I am assuming was an attempt to promote both the interview and the game, ESPNNEWS ran this line at the bottom of the screen late Friday night: "Breaking News: Lakers Head Coach Phil Jackson to retire after 2009-2010 season."

Here is the interview in its entirety.

At exactly what point does Uncle Phil say that he is retiring? The exact quote Jackson makes about his future is, "I have one more year after this year with the Lakers. Dr. Buss has insinuated that he'd like me to coach longer, but I said let's just do one year at a time right now, so that's what we're doing."

I'll ask it again: when does Jackson say he's retiring? Are ESPN and ABC that desperate for ratings that they'll intentionally mislead viewers, or did someone at ESPN watch that clip and honestly believe that Phil Jackson was using that interview to announce his retirement?

Either way, for their complete irresponsibility in reporting the story, the worldwide leader joins the disrespected few that have been "lucky" enough to find themselves on the inactive list this season.

Be sure to check back at Sports Central every Monday to see who cracks Scott Shepherd's rotation as he breaks down what is going on around the NBA.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

Has Change Come to Tennis in 2009?

Is 2009 the year of change?

Here in America, 2009 is supposed to be the year of change. Ushered in by the historic election of Barack Obama to the Presidency, for several weeks now the recurring theme is "change has come." While I have to admit there seems to be a general change of collective mood, so far there doesn't seem to really be much change. The stock markets continue to fall, and in big chunks. Gasoline prices, after having dropped to almost record lows, are on the rise again. All across the globe, there are still very bad people committing very bad acts against innocent people. India and Pakistan are still bitter rivals. The auto industry is still failing here, and so are many financial institutions. As I waited for the Australian Open to begin, I wondered, will there be change in the 2009 tennis year?

Well, so far, not really. As of today, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are still the odds-on favorites and playing like they will be in the final again. The American men have fared no differently then in previous years, with James Blake and Andy Roddick the only American men left standing in the singles, and most likely both will be gone following their next matches. Novak Djokovic is finally on track after switching racquet companies and racquets and having a hard time adjusting to the new frames. Even Jo-Wilfried Tsonga seems to be repeating his run here like last year. A look at the men's draw in the fourth round looks the same as it did in 2008. No real new stories.

On the women's side, the Williams Sisters, Serena and Venus, are also doing as before. Inconsistently brilliant, this time Venus left the draw early and Serena has won her matches, but looks rusty. They are still together in the doubles and it looks like they will make the finals, if not winning the doubles title. Elena Dementieva and Dinara Safina seem to have not missed a beat during the brief winter layoff. Both look strong and could easily meet in the final. Ana Ivanovic has also continued her inconsistent play from the end of 2008. So for tennis, so far it doesn't look like 2009 will be the year of change.

However, there is one compelling new story brewing in Melbourne. Well, new for 2009, but she's not new. Jelena Dokic, finally free of the pressures of her father, apparently clear of her personal demons, has bashed her way into the fourth round, showing moments of talent that we all knew she had and hoped she would bring to us over the years. The WTA Tour last saw her in full force in 2006, and so far the 10-year WTA Tour veteran has sliced and diced her way through 2008's women's tour darlings (and seeded players) Anna Chakvetadze and Caroline Wozniacki, as well as Alisa Kleybanova, who took out world number five Ivanovic in the previous round. Her adopted country of Australia has embraced her return, giving her ovations with each match and cheering her on with each successive match. Dokic's appearance in the fourth round is her best-ever at the Aussie Open. That alone is a story.

So in 2009, change has come. In America, maybe. In tennis, maybe not. But maybe that's a good thing.

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:25 AM | Comments (0)

Super Bowl XLIII Proposition Bets

1. Winner: Arizona/Pittsburgh
2. Versus spread: Arizona (+6½)/Pittsburgh (-6½)
3. Total points (game): over/under 45½
4. Total points (1st quarter): over/under 10½
5. Total points (2nd quarter): over/under 12½
6. Total points (3rd quarter): over/under 10½
7. Total Points (4th quarter): over/under 14½
8. Team winning coin toss: Cardinals/Steelers
9. Number of team captains (both teams) at midfield for coin toss: over/under 8½
10. Result of coin toss: heads/tails
11. Cardinals to: receive/kickoff
12. First possessions begins (yard line): over/under 26½
13. Kurt Warner passing yards: over/under 281½
14. Warner rushing yards: over/under ½
15. Ben Roethlisberger passing yards: over/under 234½
16. Edgerrin James rush attempts: over/under 11½
17. Larry Fitgerald receptions: over/under 7½
18. Fitzgerald receiving yards: over/under 118½
19. Anquan Boldin receiving yards: over/under 49½
20. Boldin post-game tantrums: over/under ½
21. Willie Parker rushing yards: over/under 68½
22. Troy Polamalu interceptions: over/under ½
23. James Farrior solo tackles: over/under 5½
24. James Harrison sacks: over/under ½
25. Warner passer-rating: over/under 96.5½
26. Roethlisberger passer-rating: over/under 95.7½
27. Warner turnovers: over/under 1½
28. Roethlisberger turnovers: over/under 1½
29. Tim Hightower total yards: over/under 27½
30. Santonio Holmes touchdowns: over/under ½
31. Jeremy Urban receptions: over/under ½
32. Darnell Dockett tackles: over/under 4½
33. Hines Ward receptions: over/under 2½
34. Length of first penalty: over/under 5½
35. First penalty called on: offense/defense
36. Jersey number of back judge: over/under 38½
37. Antrel Rolle interceptions: over/under ½
38. Deshea Townsend interceptions: over/under ½
39. Kurt Warner completions: over/under 26½
40. Total touchdowns (game, both teams): over/under 4½
41. Yardage length of first Arizona touchdown: over/under 11½
42. Yardage length of first Pittsburgh touchdown: over/under 8½
43. Jersey number of first Cardinal to score a touchdown: over/under 11½
44. Jersey number of first Steeler to score a touchdown: over/under 43½
45. Length of longest Neil Rackers field goal: over/under 42½
46. Jeff Reed successful PAT conversions: over/under 2½
47. Total touchbacks on kickoffs: over/under 2½
48. Largest lead of any team at any point: over/under 9½
49. Steve Breaston return yardage: over/under 24½
50. LaMarr Woodley sacks plus interceptions: over/under 1½
51. Coaches challenges: over/under 1½
52. Two-point conversion attempts (both teams): over/under ½
53. Halftime versus spread: Arizona (+ 4½)/Pittsburgh (-4½)
54. Add total points (both teams) at halftime; is sum: odd/even
55. Add total points of final score; is sum: odd/even
56. Rackers missed field goals: over/under ½
57. Adrian Wilson sacks + tackles – interceptions: over/under 8½
58. Arizona first downs: over/under 17½
59. Pittsburgh first downs: over/under 18½
60. Number of punts (both teams): over/under 7½
61. Total yards (both teams): over/under 614½
62. Arizona red zone efficiency: over/under 33.32%
63. Pittsburgh red zone efficiency: over/under 45.65%
64. Fumbles (both teams): over/under 3½
65. Arizona time of possession: over/under 27:11½
66. Pittsburgh time of possession: over/under 32:01½
67. Arizona penalty yards: over/under 44½
68. Pittsburgh penalty yards: over/under 43½
69. Duration of game: over/under 3 hours, 26½ minutes
70. Tie score at any point in fourth quarter?: yes/no
71. Jersey number of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 11½
72. Letters in last name of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 6½
73. Points score in final two minutes of game: over/under 3½
74. Time remaining on clock at two minute warning of second half: over/under 1:57½

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:57 AM | Comments (0)

January 23, 2009

Sports Q&A: NFL Offseason Questions

Will Brett Favre be in New York next year?

My guess is Favre will never be seen in a Jets uniform again, unless Wrangler starts making Jets uniforms. I think Favre learned his lesson last year about making a retirement announcement too early, so we'll probably have to wait for the official announcement sometime in early July. When that announcement comes, there should be equal amounts of tears of sadness and tears of joy.

But one can never underestimate the power of an offseason of feeding goats and growing soybeans on your ranch in Mississippi. Or an incredibly bad training camp by Kellen Clemens. One or both of those scenarios could impact Favre's decision to return for another disappointing season. Favre may feel that a return is necessary to take care of unfinished business, like leading New York to the Super Bowl, or giving Thomas Jones a country ass-whipping.

What about Pacman Jones? Is there a team willing to sign him?

If you're asking about a "great fit" for Jones, he would look great in "Jump Suit Orange" or "Prison Issue Stripes." I hear there's an evil prison warden somewhere looking for some talent to give the "prisoners" a fighting chance against the "guards" team.

But seriously, there's only one man capable of taming a degenerate of Jones' caliber, and that's Bill Belichick. Randy Moss went to New England with the reputation as a troublemaker (albeit nowhere near the level of Jones'), and he has remained virtually trouble-free, while producing big numbers. The Patriots need some youth in the secondary, and Jones, as a punt returner, can sidestep defenders as well as he's sidestepped felony charges. And Belichick and Jones could regale each other with anecdotes from their meetings with commissioner Roger Goodell.

If his playing days are done, Jones could always join the ranks of former players who become NFL analysts with poor grammar and enunciation skills.

What's the secret to the Cowboys advancing to the Super Bowl next year?

The secret? Lowered expectations. The Cowboys start every year thinking they'll easily ride on their high horses into the Super Bowl, although they always end the year astride their steeds side-saddled.

Here's the problem: Dallas can't start a season without high expectations. They'll be Super Bowl favorites every year as long as Jerry Jones keeps the roster loaded with players whose talent always exceeds their character and ability to play well with others.

What this team needs to reach those high expectations is a player or two who commands respect, and can keep fellow players focused on the team and not themselves. I believe there's only one person who would be able to pull that off in the Cowboy locker room — and that's Jesus Christ.

On that note, will Ray Lewis join new Jets head coach and former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan in New York next year? Or is Lewis headed to Dallas?

Although it would be strange to see Lewis in a uniform other than a Ravens, Lewis is exactly the type a fiery, take-no-junk teammate that most of the Cowboys need to reach their potential. Lewis arrival in Dallas would cause an unpleasantly awkward moment between he and Terrell Owens, but since when is an awkward moment in Dallas a big deal? There was the time Jessica Simpson and Jason Witten met and realized they were dating the same guy. And, next year, there's certain to be an awkward moment when Jerry Jones realizes even he can't afford a seat in Dallas' new stadium in Arlington.

In the end, though, I think Lewis stays in Baltimore, and eventually becomes mayor of the city in 2012.

So are the Cowboys an early favorite in the NFC? What about the AFC favorite?

Yes, the 'Boys are an early favorite, so they'll be the NFC's best team through 2009's first five games. I think the Giants will make a return to the big game, assuming Plaxico Burress can get his ducks in a row, and doesn't shoot them.

In the AFC, my pick is a team that went 11-5 in 2008 and didn't make the playoffs — the New England Patriots. The Pats will have either Tom Brady or Matt Cassel at quarterback, so Randy Moss will have one of the two quarterbacks with whom he's comfortable throwing to him.

Of course, Belichick and New England will have to find a replacement for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, now the head coach at Denver. But when has Belichick ever had a problem finding a fill-in for a key component of his team? I hear Troy Brown will be the Patriots' new coordinator.

Will Raheem Morris, new head coach in Tampa Bay, get the Buccaneers back into the playoffs?

Morris' predecessor, Jon Gruden, won the Super Bowl in his first year as head coach. Morris won't enjoy the luxury of a great Tony Dungy-created defense falling into his lap, like Gruden, so a trip to the Super Bowl is out of the question.

But the playoffs are a possibility. Morris inherits a defense built by Monte Kiffin, and, with four years of service already in the Tampa organization, Morris has earned the respect of the players. If Morris can get the defense to play like they did before the Bucs' 0-4 finish last year, as well as make a few upgrades on offense, Tampa should again compete for a playoff spot, if not the division crown.

But what's the best thing about Morris? Well, his first name is "Raheem," which instantly gets credibility in the locker room and rap community, as well as free admission to the Wu Tang mansion, the whereabouts of which are believed to be in a cave somewhere in the Himalayan mountain range. Heck, if your name is "Raheem," you could tell everyone you're named after one of the members of Grand Master Flash's "Furious Five." Most of all, though, you're able to call your squad the "Raheem Team."

Will Jake Delhomme be the starting quarterback in Carolina next year?

Carolina's season ended with an apology, so, fittingly, it will begin with one: I'm sorry, Carolina fans, but Delhomme will be the starting quarterback in 2009. Seriously, though, when Delhomme said "I'm sorry" to his teammates after his 5-interception effort versus the Cardinals, I think it was less of an apology and more of an admission.

Never fear, Carolina fans. The man known as "Quarterback Viagra," Vinny Testaverde, is in shape and raring to go.

Can Adrian Peterson rectify the fumbling problems that plagued him in 2008?

Sure he can. Rumor has it that since the Vikings season ended on January 4th, Peterson has kept a football in his grasp at all times, which is easily the longest he's ever gone without a fumble. He even sleeps with the ball, but I can't for the life of me understand how that could possibly help.

I suspect we'll see Peterson carry the ball higher and closer to his body next year, much like Tiki Barber did in curing his fumbling problem.

Who will be the No. 1 pick in April's draft?

All indications point to the Lions taking Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford. Detroit scouts love Stafford's arm strength and intelligence, and they're equally as thrilled that he doesn't play the piano. It will be a great situation for Stafford in Detroit; Calvin Johnson, one of the league's best wide receivers, is there, and Matt Millen is not.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:54 AM | Comments (3)

January 22, 2009

Cardinals: Worst Super Bowl Team Ever

I'm as big a fan of the underdog as anyone.

I'm always rooting for the lowest remaining seed in the NCAA men's basketball tournament. When the Tampa Bay Rays make a run at a World Series title, I'm interested. When the lowly Atlanta Hawks take the Celtics to seven games in the first round of the playoffs, I'm loving every minute.

But the underdog thing has its limits.

Nobody wanted the 2007-08 Hawks to beat the Celtics in the playoffs last season because the 37-45 Hawks didn't really deserve to be in the playoffs. They were terrible in the regular season. The series was fun, but the right team won.

The Arizona Cardinals are like the 2007-08 Atlanta Hawks. Except in this case, the Hawks actually beat the Celtics.

The Cardinals are the worst team to ever make it to a Super Bowl. Ever. And it's not close.

I'm not taking anything away from what they've accomplished in the playoffs. They beat the teams they faced. They overcame the odds. The underdog won.

Whatever.

The Cardinals are like Dante from the Clerks movies, they shouldn't even be here today.

The Cardinals have been the picture of a dysfunctional franchise over the last couple of decades. They don't spend enough money. They let good players go. They sign players on the wrong side of their career. They don't draft well, with the noted exception of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

They're like the warm-weather version of the Detroit Lions.

So did they turn over a new leaf? Did they turn this thing around? Did their new management figure out how to put together a Super Bowl champion?

In a word, no.

The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl because they play in the worst division in the history of the NFL. The Cardinals went undefeated against NFC West opponents. Against everyone else, they went 3-7.

Even if you factor in their playoff wins, they're still 6-7 against the real NFL.

And yet they're in the Super Bowl.

The Cardinals scored one more point than they allowed in the regular season. They had one of the best offenses in the NFL, and they could only outscore their opponents by one measly point.

And that's while feasting on the NFC West.

There's no nice way to put this. The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl because the National Football Conference suffered the worst choke job in the history of professional sports.

The entire conference should be ashamed of itself.

The Cardinals are only the second nine win team to make it to the Super Bowl. Statistically, they are the worst defensive team to ever make it to the Super Bowl. No Super Bowl team had ever scored less than 14 points more than they allowed — and that was the other nine-win team that inexplicably made it to the Super Bowl.

Well, 1979 Rams, you can rest easy, because you're no longer the worst team to ever play in the Super Bowl.

The Cardinals could shock the world on Super Bowl Sunday. They could beat the Steelers. They really could. Their offense is good enough that they can, in a perfect storm, beat anyone (unless there is a storm, see their performance against the Patriots in December).

Think about the teams we've considered the worst Super Bowl teams in recent memory. The 1985 Patriots won 11 games. The 2000 Giants won 10 games. The 1996 Patriots win 11 games. The 1989 and 1986 Broncos both won 11 games.

Even the 1994 Chargers won 11 games.

Those teams were terrible in the Super Bowl, but at least they deserved to be there. The Cardinals are a great story, I guess. But they don't deserve to be the story. The people who think they do just started watching them play three weeks ago.

I've had the misfortune of watching them all year long. The fact that they're in the Super Bowl isn't a great story, it's a travesty. Especially when you consider the fact that the Patriots, Jets, Cowboys, Bears, and Buccaneers, all either better than or at least equal to the Cardinals, didn't even make the playoffs.

The NFC is pathetic. The Giants' victory last year was a fluke. The entire conference is filled with choking dogs. Because of them, we're forced to watch one more week of Cardinal football.

Hopefully the Steelers will make the Cardinals pay for having the audacity to pretend to be a Super Bowl team.

Sean Crowe is the New England Patriots Examiner at Examiner.com. He writes a column every other Thursday for Sports Central. You can email him at [email protected].

Posted by Sean Crowe at 11:19 AM | Comments (11)

January 21, 2009

A Very Lengthy Road Ahead

As an African-American man in this country, the election and inauguration of President Barack Obama was a signification of what seemed to be an unreachable goal. Sure, black Presidents had come to fruition on television and movie screens, but there didn't seem to be a lot of evidence to suggest this could happen in real life for quite a long period of time.

Robert Frost's poem "Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening," like many of his works, discusses life and the choices that must be made in it. He ends this particular poem by repeating the line of how the main character has "miles to go before (he) sleep(s)". In a way, the inauguration of President Obama brings some to the end of those miles they had to travel. For others, it signifies just the beginning of those miles they must go.

The same can be said in many aspects of life, although on a much less epic scale. Take collegiate athletics. Over the past few years, several small universities have shifted part of their focus to improving and enhancing their athletic programs. The most obvious endpoint of this venture could be seen in moving up a division in the college ranks.

The change has probably been most evident on the basketball court, where several teams have made the jump from Division II to Division I over the past 10 to twelve years. One such case is currently happening in Newark, NJ. Amongst the shadows of the state school (Rutgers) and the private university (Seton Hall), the New Jersey Institute of Technology is trying to build their own niche of athletic relevance.

NJIT decided to step their Highlander sports teams up from D-II to D-I earlier this decade. The basketball team started to take that plunge in 2006, and they actually put a positive spin on the move by knocking off two Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference teams in Manhattan and Rider. Since then, the story hasn't gone their way.

After that fast push from the blocks, NJIT won three out of their next 27 games, ending up 5-24 for the '06-'07 campaign. In November of 2007, they began season two with a rematch against Manhattan. This one didn't go so well, as the Highlanders got crushed 70-28. Thus began a long, arduous season that saw loss after loss pile up. The closest they got to an opponent were nine-point defeats at Lehigh and at Stony Brook.

At the end of February, they had amassed the most losses in a winless season (0-29) and the most consecutive losses in a season. The records are put in the NCAA media guide under the condition that the team is under going reclassification, but they are still there alongside the 1991-1992 Prairie View A&M and 2004-2005 Savannah State teams that both finished 0-28.

With a new coaching staff in place and half the team replaced due to graduation, a second rematch with Manhattan ushered in the '08-'09 schedule. The 56-32 final wasn't as lopsided, but it continued the streak of losses. Going into Wednesday night's matchup with Bryant University, the Highlanders are 0-18, pushing their length of consecutive Division I defeats to 51 (including the last four games of the '06-'07 season). Even under reclassification, that shatters the old record of 34 established by Sacramento State from December of 1997 to January of 1999.

And it doesn't look to get any better for NJIT. Next year, the Highlanders will achieve their conference status. Of course, it won't be with the big boys from the ACC or Big East. So, they'll head to the MAAC, right? Uh, no. The America East Conference? Negative? It's got to be the Northeast Conference. Nope. The New Jersey Institute will be a proud member of the Great West. That's right ... I said the GREAT WEST. (I mean, really, was it too hard for any of the eastern leagues to throw these guys a bone?)

That means, if the streak continues, this team may have to try to break it next season while flying out to the following locations during league play:

San Luis Obispo and Davis, California
Orem and Cedar City, Utah
Vermillion, South Dakota
Grand Forks, North Dakota
Chicago, Illinois
Houston and Edinburg, Texas

It's not tough enough to field a fresh squad for a "normal" conference slate that features games a couple of states over, let alone trips that span three time zones and 1,500 to 3,000 miles for basically every opponent (against opponents that outscored them by an average of 16.9 points last season).

The affiliation is only for the 2009-2010 season at this point, so NJIT will have to arrange an extended or new affiliation after that time. However, even in these days of chartered planes and advanced technology, to have a team push themselves over that distance might ask a little much.

Personally, I have to give the Highlanders an "A" for their efforts. To decide to go against the deeper pockets and better talent pool of the bigger division is a large step and gives out its share of lumps. The wins will most definitely be few, but there might be one or two during the rest of this season (a rematch with Maryland-Eastern Shore, whom they lost to by four on December 6th, is set for January 28th).

In any case, I will secretly root for the New Jersey Institute of Technology through the rest of the season. I hope they win. I hope they grab victories in bunches. I hope they prove that they can compete at the D-I level. But struggle may be more appropriate and available due to the fact, figuratively and literally, that they have miles to go before they even think about getting groggy.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:41 AM | Comments (1)

A College Football-esque NFL Overtime?

There are many different arguments both for and against the current NFL overtime format. Some people are against it because it doesn't allow for both teams to get the ball most of the time and can usually come down to whoever wins the coin toss in overtime.

With the recent talk and debate of a college football playoff, a la the NFL's system, becoming more and more common thanks to President Barrack Obama's thoughts on the matter, the reverse can be said of the overtime system of the two leagues. With everyone and their brother demanding a college football playoff, it has become all too common for people to also demand a college football-esque NFL overtime.

Dare we hope to get both of these changes soon? And do we even want a college football-esque NFL overtime system?

For the most part, every argument that many of the people who are pro-current NFL overtime system have can be flipped on its head and used to also support the college football version and system. Defense is just as big a part of the game as offense? This is very true, but in the college football version of overtime, both the offense and defense must play at least one set of downs or a drive.

The teams played all game to set themselves up for the sudden death overtime system? Yeah, well that's well and great, but just think of how the college football version of overtime further increases the drama and basically has it so that the game must continue to go on just as it were prior to the end of regulation. Sure, there will be slightly altered strategies since there's no kicking off or punting really, but it certainly feels sudden death worthy and final enough to be called an overtime.

Not to try and step on the NFL's history and legacy or anything, but honestly, sometimes change just turns out to be for the better. Look at instant replay. That was debated up and down for who knows how long until it was finally built into the game and look how much better the game is for it.

Whether or not the overtime system gets changed or is even brought into the forefront any time soon is really of no matter. Sometimes we task our agendas with one side of an argument or another so that we forget just how much we enjoy the game as it is. Will anyone really stop watching the NFL if their version of overtime isn't changed to or kept as it is? Of course not!

So while it's perfectly okay and warranted to have a strong and often times passionate opinion on these subjects, we should all just really agree to disagree on them and ultimately be concerned with enjoying the game no matter how it turns out.

After all, don't we have a Super Bowl to be looking forward to and talking about coming up pretty soon?

Posted by Josh Galligan at 11:17 AM | Comments (2)

January 20, 2009

Super Bowl XLIII Preview

Five Quick Hits

* I'm excited about the Super Bowl, but I am bummed that we never got see Titans/Giants.

* For those of you interested in NFL coaching trees, Buddy Ryan's has grown enormously this month. Mike Singletary (SF), Jim Schwartz (DET), and Rex Ryan (NYJ) are all on Ryan's tree.

* This may sound odd, but the celebrated Bill Walsh Tree is nearly dead, having lost four coaches in the last year: Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren, Jon Gruden, and Scott Linehan. Walsh's legacy, at this point, is basically the Andy Reid Tree.

* I have reached a definitive conclusion: don't rest your starters in Week 17. Pittsburgh won its last game 31-0. The Cardinals, with their seed already secured, played hard to recapture momentum before the playoffs. Guess it worked. Great call by Ken Whisenhunt.

* My favorite Super Bowl story-line: Whisenhunt, the former Pittsburgh assistant who was passed over for their head coaching job, going up against his old team.

***

Conference Championship Roundups

Eagles @ Cardinals

Last week, I joked that losing in the NFC Championship Game is an Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb tradition. Well, the tradition continues. The Eagles have been to five NFC title games in the last eight years, which is an incredible record of success, but they're 1-4 in those games, which is enormously disappointing, and raises legitimate questions about their big-game capabilities.

Donovan was okay in this game. He was rocky in the first half, but he's a slow starter, and he's streaky. He got hot in the second half, and finished with good numbers: 375 yards, 3 TD, INT, 97.4 rating. The Eagles' running game was a bigger problem. We often criticize Andy Reid for passing too much, but the ground game was so ineffective in the first quarter that I don't blame Reid for getting away from it. For most of the second half, they had to pass anyway, just to catch up before time ran out.

Philadelphia's problems on Sunday were less about McNabb and the offense than the normally stout defense, which got burned — like the Falcons and Panthers before them — by Larry Fitzgerald. At what point does this guy start drawing consistent double-teams? Shouldn't you stop the guy who is carving up your defense, rather than worrying about what other guys might do? Double-team him. Triple-team him, if that's what it takes. Make them prove they can win another way. The Eagles allowed an average of 18 points per game this season. They held the Vikings and Giants to a combined 25 points in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Cardinals hit them for 32, including 3 touchdowns by Fitzgerald.

Now, obviously Arizona deserves some credit here, too. The last time someone scored 30 points against the Eagles was the week before Thanksgiving. The keys for Arizona were superb pass-blocking, Fitzgerald, and turnovers. Todd Haley's play-calling was fantastic, mixing the run and the pass, and utilizing pre-snap motion that seemed to confuse the Eagle defense. The Eagles seemed off-balance throughout the first half. Fitzgerald looks unstoppable. It is not evident that anyone can cover him one-on-one right now. He needs to be double-teamed, redirected, frustrated.

Arizona's defense continues to make its living with turnovers. During the playoffs, the team has created 12 turnovers — 4 per game! — and is +9. The difference in this game was probably pass protection. McNabb was under consistent pressure, whereas Kurt Warner faced almost none. The Cardinals' coaching staff won this game.

Ravens @ Steelers

Let's start with Willis McGahee. He's going to be okay. With just 3:29 left in the game, McGahee was injured on a brutal (but not malicious or illegal) hit from Ryan Clark. Both players were knocked out, but Clark walked off the field a couple minutes later; McGahee was carried out on a stretcher and taken to the hospital. He didn't give a thumbs up on his way out, but he did grasp Ed Reed's hand just before the stretcher started rolling. McGahee has a rough history with injuries. The destruction of his knee in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl was one of the most awful-looking football injuries I have ever seen.

Another play that deserves special mention is the one that probably sealed the game, Troy Polamalu's interception return for a touchdown a minute earlier, putting the Steelers up by nine. Pittsburgh only used one down lineman on the play. The other ten players were all lined up as linebackers or DBs. The one lineman, Aaron Smith, didn't even rush on the play; he dropped into coverage. The Steelers used a four-man rush, but it was a confusing, unpredictable four-man rush against a rookie quarterback who was struggling. Brilliant call in that situation.

Pittsburgh went 3-0 against the Ravens this year. A while back some moron started the rumor that it's really hard to beat a team three times in the same season, but when one team sweeps an opponent during the regular season, and they meet for a third time in the playoffs, the previous winner is 12-7 (since 1970). I don't think a .632 winning percentage backs up the "really hard" premise.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XLIII: Cardinals vs. Steelers
Tampa, Florida

This is probably the most stark offense-vs.-defense matchup in Super Bowl history. The Cardinals had a top-five offense, while the Steelers ranked in the bottom half of every major offensive category. Arizona had a lousy defense during the regular season, while the Steelers had the league's best.

If you add a team's rank in points scored, yards gained, yards per rush, and passer rating, the Cardinals are ahead by 47 total ranks on offense, and the Steelers are ahead by an incredible 83 total ranks on defense, for a combined difference of 130. The much-celebrated 2002 Super Bowl, featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (defense) and the Oakland Raiders (offense), only had a total difference of 84.

All of this bodes well for Pittsburgh, because in recent Super Bowl history, the team with the better defense usually wins.

If the Cardinals are going to pull off the upset, they need to play like they have in the postseason, not the regular season. They need Fitzgerald to get 100 yards and a touchdown, they need about 60 rushing yards from Edgerrin James, and most importantly, they need to win the turnover battle.

All of that will be harder against Pittsburgh than against any of their previous opponents, but the turnovers in particular could be a problem. With all due respect to Philadelphia, which had a great defense this season, the Cardinals haven't faced a defense like Pittsburgh's all year. If they only commit one turnover, that's a small victory right there. The offensive line must give Warner the same kind of protection he got against the Eagles.

For Pittsburgh, the strategy is to let the defense win the game. The offense can't do anything stupid. Protect Big Ben, run a lot, and don't turn it over. They'll need a big play at some point (probably from Santonio Holmes), but there's no need to force it. Ball protection is the top priority, and the burden will fall on the defense to pressure Warner, contain James, and shut down Fitzgerald.

I believe the Steelers should double-team Fitzgerald from the first play. In these playoffs, he has 54% of Arizona's receiving yardage (419 yards), and half of the team's offensive touchdowns. He's averaging 140 yards and 2 TDs! The team's other receivers have been conspicuously quiet. A smart defense would see what the Cardinals can do without him. Edgerrin James has been effective this postseason, but the Cardinals aren't going to beat you with Edge. They beat you with Fitzgerald.

If Anquan Boldin or Steve Breaston starts carving up the defense, they can make adjustments. But all postseason long, Warner has been looking for Fitzgerald, and it makes sense to take that option away. Force Arizona to make the first adjustment. If the Steelers can somehow combine shut-down defense on Fitz, honest coverage of the other receivers, and a pass-rush on Warner, they will probably win this game by double-digits.

I have picked against the Cardinals for three weeks in a row, but I'm switching now. I think Arizona will win Super Bowl XLIII. On paper, it's a ridiculous choice. The Steelers are favored by seven, for good reasons. They beat the Ravens pretty easily, while the Cardinals barely got by the Eagles. The Steelers were much better during the regular season, and their defense could give Arizona nightmares.

But I think the Cardinals may have an edge in Whisenhunt and assistant HC Russ Grimm. They coached together in Pittsburgh for six years, and know the personnel on that team. Additionally, Hines Ward, the MVP of Super Bowl XL, may be limited or unable to play. Most of all, though, the Cardinals just keep proving people wrong. They don't need to be better all game, they just need a few big plays. A 65-yard touchdown pass here, a sack-fumble there, and Arizona is in business. If they play the way have all postseason, this is going to be a very good game.

The Cardinals' secret weapon is DT Darnell Dockett, who had a quiet game against Philadelphia, but came up huge against the Falcons and Panthers. Dockett is one of the best pass-rushing DTs in the league, a guy who specializes in penetrating the offensive line and disrupting plays in the backfield. The Cardinals need him to have a big game in Tampa, and I believe he'll do it.

Cardinals 24, Steelers 20

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:55 AM | Comments (0)

Who Are the NBA's Top Five?

The Cavs are on a roll, the champion Celtics are sliding, and don't look now, but Old Faithful from the city of the Alamo have stated their case yet again. Here's a look at the top five rankings of January.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (31-8)

LeBron James' past failures have fueled his successes and is now rubbing off on his team. After redemption this past summer in the Beijing Olympics with Team USA, King James has brought the Cavs to the top of East after a tough playoff exit in 2008. No one has figured out how to beat them at home (20-0) and if they can play solidly on the road through the season and into the playoffs, the road to the finals may pass through the banks of Lake Erie.

After the dismantling of the Celtics a week ago, LeBron, Mo Williams, and Co. may be looking to sit atop the Eastern Conference for a while. They will be without the services of Delonte West, who is expected to miss the next six weeks with a broken wrist. However, does anyone doubt that The Chosen One won't step up to compensate in his absence?

2. Orlando Magic (33-8)

If there was a "quiet success" story of the league, this team would be the winner. Equally tough at home and on the road, the Magic have started this year on fire, winning on the road at arguably the top two teams in the West, the Spurs and Lakers. With a well-balanced lineup, if the focus is too much on Dwight Howard, the versatility of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu will make teams pay. Mickael Pietrus, when healthy, provides a spark in scoring and Jameer Nelson has shown the same steady play at point guard that made him the top college player in the county at St. Joseph's. The Magic have already thrown their name in the discussion in the East with Boston and Cleveland.

3. L.A. Lakers (32-8)

Won a critical Christmas Day game in a Finals rematch against the Celtics, but the Lakers have struggled recently, with losses to New Orleans and Orlando at home and close games against Miami and Indiana. The reigning MVP is continuing play at high level, but he'll need Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum to contribute even more now that there are injuries to significant role players Jordan Farmar and Luke Walton, who will both miss time, and Lamar Odom fighting nagging injuries again. The contributions of the role players in Tinseltown will be key down the stretch in the West.

4. San Antonio Spurs (27-13)

Sorry to all the Spurs detractors, but the "boringest team" in the league will not go away. All the Spurs have done over the last decade is win, four championships to be exact. And while Tim Duncan isn't the dominant force he once was, this is more a balanced veteran Spurs squad that keeps on plugging. Sound familiar? Tony Parker still handles the team from the point and Manu Ginobli seems to step up when needed the most.

The most pleasant surprise of this season has to be Roger Mason, Jr., who came to San Antonio as a free agent from Washington and has averaged 12 points a game and won two critical games with big shots. First, against the arch-nemesis Suns on Christmas Day and last week, at home against the Lakers. It must bore you to death, but count the Spurs being in the discussion for the rest of the season and well into the spring.

5. Boston Celtics (34-9)

Talk about the best team ever? 70 wins? Breezing through the regular season? Gone. The champs started the year on fire, starting 28-2, but including a Christmas Day loss in L.A., they've gone on a mini-swoon, going 2-7 since, including a humbling loss to Cleveland. Still, the Celtics will rebound. Having possible three future Hall of Famers and a budding base of youth with Rajon Rondo, Kedrick Perkins, and Leon Powe means Boston will not be in a free-fall for long. Boston will be back to challenge for their crown again.

Posted by Brian Cox at 11:35 AM | Comments (2)

January 19, 2009

In the Rotation: NBA Week 12

With a full slate of games to be played on Monday, a cool new Martin Luther King Day tradition, 18 of the 30 NBA teams will have played at least half of their regular season games, with the rest of the league to catch up later in the week.

You know what that means: midseason awards!

It's as innate as walking or talking. Every season, regardless of the sport, every sports fan takes a mental inventory of the season at the halfway point and evaluates what he or she has seen. It's human nature.

Here inside the rotation, things are no different. There's no better time than the inexact halfway point to start projecting award winners.

This week's Starting Five is an early look at the front-runners for some of the most coveted hardware in the NBA, as well as a look at some of the players most likely to make a late-season charge at the award.

And the midseason winners are...

Starting Five

1. MVP: LeBron James

There's nothing more that can be said about LeBron's season so far. He's been the best statistically. His team has the best record in the league. He's shown up for every big game so far (except for the opening night loss in Boston, but he more than redeemed himself a few weeks ago). The Cavs are undefeated at home (in the Q!). He's playing like a first-team All-defensive player. He's even shooting a career-high free throw percentage.

I didn't just tell you anything you shouldn't already know about LeBron's 2008-09 season. He meets every criterion for the award possible. The MVP is his to lose.

Dark Horse: Kobe Bryant

The reigning MVP isn't going to pass the torch without a fight. Statistically, Bryant is putting up numbers on par with what he did a season ago, but his team is on pace to win eight more games and run away with the best record in the Western Conference.

He has also lived up to his reputation as the best clutch performer in the game lately, burying three game-winners in a four game stretch this week, and it would have been four game-winners in five games if Big Shot Roger, Jr. hadn't spoiled Kobe's go-ahead three and (spoiler alert!) cajones dance Wednesday night in San Antonio.

However, will all apologies to Chris Paul and LeBron, Kobe didn't exactly have this much competition last season. If LeBron played like this last year, he would have been MVP that season, too.

Still, if anyone can overtake the King for the MVP, it's Kobe. The Lakers still have two games against the Cavs: an MLK Day showdown at Staples and an ABC Sunday game in the Q on February 9th, with the real possibility that Cleveland's home winning streak is still intact.

Kobe loves the spotlight, and if he can steal the show against LeBron and outplay him in both of their head-to-head matchups, and the Lakers finish with the best record in the league, the gap between the two will narrow greatly when it's time to cast the MVP ballots.

There are a lot of big "ifs" I just mentioned, but it's not impossible. If anyone can do it, it's everyone's favorite ankle insurance salesman.

2. Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard said before the season started he wanted to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. Through the first half of the season, he has lived up to his word.

Howard leads the league in blocks at 3.2 per game, but that is only half the story. Not only does he lead the league, but with the exception of Marcus Camby 2.6 per game, Howard averages a full block per game more than every other player in the league.

Not since the rest of the league got Eaton Alive in 1984-85 by Mark Eaton (5.6 blocks per game, the next best was Hakeem Olajuwon at 2.7) has there been the possibility of one player running so far away with the blocks per game title. A good second half or a Marcus Camby injury (both seem pretty likely) and Howard could be headed to a historic defensive season, one certainly worth of Defensive Player of the Year.

Dark Horse: Dwyane Wade

Wade is the only player in the NBA who ranks in the top 20 in both steals per game and blocks per game. If Howard's block numbers slip and Wade can climb the ladder in each of these categories, his all around defensive effort may be the kryptonite that keeps Superman from his first Defensive Player of the Year Award.

3. Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose

The race for this season's ROY is probably the closest of any of the major awards at this point in the season. You could make a case for a few different players here, but to me, Rose has been the best rookie in the league for a majority of the season. O.J. Mayo, Michael Beasley, and Russell Westbrook have all shown flashes so far, but by and large Rose has been more consistent.

Rose ranks second among rookies in points per game at 16.8, first in assists with 6.3, and is shooting 46% from the floor and 78% from the free throw line. He also has the Bulls just a game out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Yes, Rose may have hit the notorious "rookie wall" a few weeks back where he had a 10-game stretch in which he only averaged 14.2 points 5.2 assists, but he's rebounded nicely with 16.5 points and 8 assists per game in his last five games.

It's Rose's consistency (only four single-digit scoring games and one game with zero assists through his first 41 games) that has me giving the nod to Derrick Rose as the front-runner for Rookie of the Year at this point.

Dark Horse: O.J. Mayo

To me, O.J. Mayo has been the biggest surprise of the 2008 draft class. Most of us expected Rose and Michael Beasley to come out and produce immediately, but there was always a big question mark hovering over Mayo.

It didn't take Mayo long to erase all doubt and establish himself as a ready-made NBA scorer, dropping for 31 and 33 respectively in just his seventh and eighth games as a pro. Mayo has scored at least 20 points in 20 of the Grizzlies 39 games.

However, the Grizzlies are just 4-16 in the 20 games in which Mayo has scored 20. No one is disputing the fact that he can score, but unless he starts making his teammates better (he has just two games of more than 5 assists) or finds a way to start racking up more victories (Memphis is on a 23-win pace), Rose should be able to hold him off down the stretch and win the Rookie of the Year.

4. Most Improved Player: Devin Harris

Harris has absolutely blossomed this year for the New Jersey Nets. His numbers are up in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and free throw percentage from a season ago, and his 22.3 points per game has him ninth-best in the league, while his 6.4 assists has him ranked 13th. Last year he ranked 67th and 15th, respectively.

Harris' play has helped lead the somewhat surprising Nets to a tie for the eighth and final playoff spot in the east and has also made a strong case for him to represent the East in the all-star game next month in Phoenix.

Dark Horse: Danny Granger

You could make the case that Paul Millsap is a strong contender for MIP, as well, but I'm not sold on that. Sure, Millsap is averaging 6.9 points and 3.7 more rebounds per game than he did a season ago, but he has also seen a significant increase in minutes played, as well, with the injury to Carlos Boozer allowing Millsap to play nearly 11 minutes per game more than he did last season.

Millsap's stats per 36 minutes are close enough to what they were a season ago to indicate to me that Millsap isn't the most improved player in the NBA, but he certainly has the title of "Most Improved Situation."

Meanwhile, Danny Granger has elevated his game to the point that he has become one of the most deadly scorers in the NBA. His 13 games of at least 30 points or more ranks him third only behind LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. He's increased his scoring average from 19.6 a season ago 26.3 this year, a jump that's taken him from 34th in the league in '08 to currently 4th in the NBA in scoring.

Not only has his points per game gone up, but his numbers across the board have increased, as well, indicating that Grangers hasn't just improved as a scorer, but has also begun the transformation into one of the most complete players in the league.

If he can continue to put up big numbers for the Pacers in the second half of the season, he has a very good chance of becoming the Most Improved Player for 2009.

5. Coach of the Year: Stan Van Gundy

The Magic have quietly gone about the first half of the season taking care of business by starting the season off at 33-8 and sit just percentage points behind Cleveland for the best record in the league. The Magic have the best road record in the NBA and are on pace to increase their win total by 14 games from a season ago.

They've also established themselves as one of five teams (Lakers, Cavs, Celtics, Spurs, and Magic) that have given the impression throughout the first half of the season that they are legit title contenders.

With no Pat Riley waiting in the wings to steal his job once the team reaches its apex, Van Gundy will finally have a chance to show his coaching chops with a contending team in the playoffs as he tries to navigate the inexperienced but talented Magic through the minefield that is the top of the Eastern Conference.

Dark Horse: Jerry Sloan

I'm not a big fan of handing out regular season awards just because a guy has never won before, but I might be willing to make an exception this year if the Jazz can make the playoffs.

Despite only getting 12 games so far from Carlos Boozer, 28 from Deron Williams, 33 form Memo Okur, and 35 from Paul Millsap, the Jazz are currently at 24-17 in the West and sit in the ever so important eight-spot out West.

Sloan has been able to keep this team afloat despite a rash of injuries to his best players. If he can lead them to a second half charge, one of the best coaches of our generation will finally be recognized as the Coach of the Year, an honor he most certainly deserves to have on his resume after 21 magnificent seasons on the Utah bench.

In the Rotation: The resurgence of the "cajones dance"

There is no more of a ridiculous/awesome celebration in sports that the "I've got giant cajones" dance that Sam Cassell made famous after an NBA player hits a big shot.

As I mentioned earlier, Kobe dusted off the "cajones dance" after hitting a huge shot in San Antonio against the Spurs Wednesday, only to have his shot immediately trumped by Big Shot Roger, Jr. seconds later, who pulled out his own version of the "cajones dance" on his way to the free throw line to bury the game winner that ESPN inexplicably never replayed.

Then, the following night, Kenyon Martin "cajones danced" his way back to the bench for the second time that I've noticed this season after his dagger three-pointer sealed a Nuggets win at home against the Phoenix Suns.

The real story here isn't that the "cajones dance" is catching back on, but that the dance itself must make David Stern furious. He's tried so hard to clean up the league's image over the past few years, the last thing he needs is every player in the league gesturing to his manhood every time he drills a big shot.

The thought of the league having to send out a memo to each team at some point in the near future that reads "any player caught gesturing to the crowd or opposing team about the size of his testicles will be fined heavily" is just high comedy.

The possibility of this memo becoming public is reason enough by itself to put the "cajones dance" in the rotation this week.

Out of the Rotation: The love-fest between Olympic teammates

This is the way great players should play one another.

If you don't have ten minutes to spare, I'll summarize what happens for you. Charles Barkley didn't like that fact that, in his opinion, Michael Jordan was getting all the calls that game and got a technical in the first half arguing his point.

Jordan took didn't like the fact that Barkley was complaining about him and let him know about it (as only M.J. could), and what transpired was one of the most epic trash-talking duels in NBA history.

Jordan scored 45 points, Barkley scored 35 and grabbed 14 rebounds, and the two never stopped jawing with one another the entire game.

The best part about this game is the fact that Jordan and Barkley were good friends at the time and remained good friends after the fact.

The point is that when the greatest players in the world get together, it should be an "I'm better than you and I'm gonna prove it at all cost"-type game, regardless of the players personal relationship off the court.

Instead, this season when players on last summer's gold medal winning basketball team get together it's more of a two-hour game of grab-ass than a fierce competition.

I understand that these players share a special bond and no doubt made memories with their Olympic teammates that will last a lifetime, but save the fun and games for dinner after the game.

I'd much rather see Kobe and LeBron try to rip each other's hearts out for 48 minutes this MLK day than see a two hour display of "look at how good of friends we are now."

Let's hope that as the season enters the stretch run we see more budding rivalries from these elite level players instead of the soccer-style friendlies that we have been getting so far.

Be sure to check back at Sports Central every Monday to see who cracks Scott Shepherd's rotation as he breaks down what is going on around the NBA.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:48 AM | Comments (2)

The Top 10 Games of 2008 (Pt. 3)

Also see: Pt. 1 | Pt. 2

6) NCAA Football, No. 7 Texas Tech @ No. 1 Texas, November 1

It figures that the only regular season entry in this list is a college football matchup. This contest had everything a fan could ask for. It was an old-fashioned Texas shootout between two gunslingers. It pitted a perennial powerhouse in Texas with its rich tradition and history against its far less accomplished little brother and in-state rival in Texas Tech in their annual contest. This was a series in which Texas had won the last five in a row from their black-and-red rivals.

The twist was that while Texas was poised for a championship season and had earned the number one ranking in all the land, Tech was not far behind at No. 7, and both teams came into the game unbeaten at 8-0.

A national television audience may have been alarmed at the fact that Texas appeared to have left their offensive skill at home. As the Horns were completely unable to move the football in the first quarter, Texas Tech managed every score possible; a safety, field goal, and a 3-yard Baron Batch touchdown run to end a first quarter that had all of Lubbock rocking.

On a second quarter drive by Texas Tech, Graham Harrell converted a key 3rd-and-14, then found Eric Morris on the next play for an 18-yard touchdown strike and incredibly, little brother Tech led the number one team in the nation 19-0 in the second quarter.

Texas was eventually able to get on the board in the quarter with two field goals, although one of them was only because Michael Crabtree fumbled at the Red Raider 29. The Longhorns then moved the ball all of three yards before converting a 43-yard kick. Their second drive at the end of the half was more impressive, but still resulted in only three points, and the surprising Red Raiders went into the locker room at halftime still ahead 22-6.

Texas still couldn't move the ball on the opening drive in the third quarter, but this time their special teams bailed them out. After pinning Texas Tech on their own one via a 61-yard punt, Tech was stopped three-and-out and forced to punt from their own end zone. Jordan Shipley fielded it near midfield and expertly worked his way downfield, making use of numerous blocks from teammates to reach the end zone for a 45-yard touchdown return. Texas had cut the deficit to 22-13 and amazingly, the Longhorns was hanging around without the benefit of any offensive firepower.

This problem would continue to rear its ugly head for Texas later on when McCoy, already backed up on the Texas seven, threw his first interception of the game to Daniel Charbonnet. The defensive back was able to turn his way upfield and reach the end zone untouched for a 29-13 Tech lead. As the Tech crowd grew delirious and ready to celebrate the greatest win in Red Raider history, the Longhorns looked like anything but a number one team.

As Texas continued to struggle on offense, they managed to get help from the Red Raiders secondary as a 15-yard pass interference penalty on Jamar Wall got Texas a first down on 3rd-and-15. Four plays later, Colt McCoy found Malcolm Williams on a short pass. Williams then dusted nearly the entire Texas Tech secondary with his speed. Three tacklers in the area failed to lay a hand on him as he streaked to the end zone. Thanks to a failed two-point conversion, the score was now 29-19 Red Raiders going into the fourth quarter.

Texas Tech moved the ball inside the Longhorns' nine, but a 16-yard sack of Graham Harrell made sure the field goal was no chip-shot. The kick was blocked and Texas would end up with the ball at their own nine.

McCoy only needed one play to rekindle the kind of explosiveness that Texas fans had come to expect. Firing a deep ball down the left sideline, he found a streaking Malcolm Williams, who had badly beaten the defender en route to a 91-yard lightning-strike score. Texas had climbed back to within three at 29-26 with 11 minutes left and a hush came over the crowd.

Tech answered with a slow methodical drive into Texas territory that stalled at the 25. A 42-yard kick from Donnie Carona was good and the Red Raiders boosted their lead to six at 32-26, leaving just under six minutes left for Colt McCoy and company.

Starting at the Texas 20, McCoy responded with a drive worthy of a number one team. Mixing short passes with handoffs to three different running backs, Texas found themselves at the Tech four-yard line with less than two minutes to go. Vondrell McGhee did the honors, running straight up the middle into the end zone on a draw play to give Texas an improbable lead at 33-32 after the extra point with just 1:29 to go.

Now behind for the first time all game, it was Harrell's turn to come up with the big drive in the clutch although he only needed a field goal to win. A solid kickoff return by Jamar Wall got the Red Raiders a short field at the Tech 38. On four passes, Harrell was able to get three first downs, stopping the clock and saving precious seconds. This put Tech at the Texas 28 with 17 seconds left. Normally, one would say they were in field goal range. Yet Harrell knew that kicker Donnie Carona had been shaky, making only four of nine field goals on the season. He had not made a kick over 40 yards until the 42-yarder he made in the previous drive. The Tech quarterback was still looking to move the ball downfield.

Harrell faced a rush as he dropped back and up to avoid the potentially catastrophic sack from the side. On the move, he found receiver Edward Britton in the flat, but Britton could only get a hand on the ball and pop it up in the air. Blake Gideon of Texas came rushing over for the easy interception as Lubbock drew eerily silent.

Gideon never held onto the ball though, even as it initially appeared to most as a clear interception, and the officials were on it immediately ruling it incomplete and giving the Red Raiders a second life.

Eight seconds remained on the clock, and Harrell still was going to play it as if a 45-yard field goal try was out of the question.

With two seasons, a rivalry and an epic upset on the line, Harrell got plenty of protection and fired a rocket to the far sideline towards a heavily guarded Michael Crabtree at the 5-yard line. Crabtree had caught 9 passes for 99 yards up until that point. This one he caught inches from the sideline while fighting off an oncoming defensive back. Immediately, he was wrapped up with both arms by a second man, cornerback Curtis Brown. The Texas sophomore seemed to take the situation for granted, though. Figuring he could easily pull Crabtree out of bounds, he seemed to let up on his grip and Crabtree doggedly burst free for those last five yards, carefully stayed inbounds, and an ecstatic romp through the end zone ensued with one second left. This one slip of the grip had just turned the college football world on its ear and a dumbfounded Brown could only watch as the rabid Tech crowd enveloped the field.

For Graham Harrell, it was not only the touchdown pass of a lifetime, but the cherry on top of a mind blowing 474-yard passing game.

Sure, they would need to clear the field in order to play out the final remaining second, but when Texas did not score on a miracle lateral return and the fans rushed out to dance a second time, Texas Tech had officially won the biggest game in the school's history (not to mention their 500th win in school history, as well as their first over a No. 1-ranked opponent) and knocked Texas off its perch as king of the hill.

Texas Tech would briefly move up in the rankings to No. 2, putting themselves in position to play for the national championship before eventually losing to fifth-ranked and eventual national finalist Oklahoma and falling out of the title picture, although with quite a respectable 11-1 record. The 2008 edition may have been the greatest team in Red Raider history.

Texas would not lose another game before or since, but that lone defeat was still enough to keep them out of the running for the title game. Florida and Oklahoma, both one-loss teams, edged them out to play for a championship in January 2009.

Final score: Texas Tech 39, Texas 33

5) NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, No. 1 Memphis vs. No. 1 Kansas, April 7

With Florida finally off the radar, two fresh, top-seeded powerhouse teams got their first shot at a championship. While Kansas had not won since the days of Danny Manning and Larry Brown in 1988, Memphis had a barren title history, only having been to the title game one other time and falling to UCLA 35 years ago. With both teams seeded number one, this title match had no clear favorite.

Kansas controlled play through most of the first half by playing strong inside, driving and slashing to the basket while Memphis kept pace with a barrage of threes and long jumpers. Notable for Kansas was guard Mario Chalmers, who killed the Tigers by scoring on a three, a fast-break layup and a basket inside off his own miss for seven points in just 2:06 time. This was in addition to his 4 steals in the game, three coming in the first half. Conversely, outstanding Memphis guard Derrick Rose was being shut down by Sherron Collins, who held him scoreless in the first half after the first three minutes of the game. Kansas took a 33-28 lead at the half, Memphis first halftime deficit of the tournament.

The second half would start a see-saw trend in the game, as the lead swung back and forth like a pendulum. Five lead changes and two ties reflected the tense play. Derrick Rose would finally announce his arrival and end his scoreless streak at 12:10 of the second half with a coast-to-coast drive. Shortly thereafter, the talented guard would unleash his full wrath on the unsuspecting Kansas defense.

After Rose scored again on a short layup off glass, he would drain a three to give Memphis a 49-47 lead and force a timeout from Kansas with 8:11 left in the game; then a pull-up jumper in the lane; then a spectacular up-and-under layup off glass and the foul, forcing yet another Kansas timeout. After Rose made the free throw, the Memphis lead was upped to seven points with just 5:10 left until collegiate immortality.

Kansas had gone cold, scoreless over the last four and a half minutes. Finally, Sherron Collins broke the streak with a layup of his own. Of course, Rose had quite an answer to that. Fading away at an improbable angle, Rose somehow banked a near-three off glass to put Memphis up 56-49 on what CBS play-by-play announcer Jim Nantz, perhaps prematurely, anointed "The shot of the tournament." Rose had now scored his team's last 10 points over a span of 4:05 and more importantly, had brought Memphis to the brink of their first title with what looked like icing on the championship cake.

With 2:13 left and Memphis still up seven, Kansas coach Bill Self went to his last resort. Knowing Memphis' shooters had achilles heels at the line, the Jayhawks went to the intentional foul and sent Robert Dozier to the stripe. Instead of faltering, Dozier made both to bring the Memphis lead up to nine, the game's largest. This now made for a 16-4 Memphis run to pull away.

If Kansas was to have any hope left, they would have to score quickly. Big man Darrell Arthur canned a quick 18-foot jumper with 1:54 left, leading Memphis to call timeout in order to substitute out the weaker free throw shooters. Antonio Anderson's inbounds pass to Derrick Rose seemed sound until Sherron Collins came in at the last second to poke it away, then flipped a nifty pass over his shoulder to Chalmers in mid-air to save it from going out of bounds. A second later, Collins was set up with a wide-open three from the corner and did not miss. At 60-56 with still 1:45 left, this sequence turned the title game from a coronation back into a ballgame.

Despite being back in the game, Kansas continued their strategy of intentionally fouling. Chris Douglas-Roberts coolly made both to make the lead six again. With 1:23 to go, Memphis made another key error when Dorsey fouled Chalmers for his fifth. The star center and defensive force had ended his senior season just over a minute too early. Chalmers made both free throws.

Chris Douglas-Roberts was immediately sent back to the line for a one-and-one and this time, he missed the front end, playing right into Kansas' hands. Arthur then made a short fadeaway jumper in the paint over Shawn Taggert, Dorsey's backup. This, at the one-minute mark, cut the lead to two.

Now Kansas played straight-up defense as Memphis drained the clock, finally Douglas-Roberts was forced into an erratic falling shot that Kansas rebounded and went on the fast break looking for the tie. Collins drove to the basket, but the ball slipped out of his hands untouched. Antonio Anderson quickly turned it into a Memphis fast break and found Douglas-Roberts at the basket. Arthur saved the play for Kansas by fouling before the agile guard could score and send him to the line once again. Now only 16.8 seconds remained.

The fact that it was a two-shot foul didn't help, as the player known as CD-R seemed to have hit a disc error. Both shots were bricks, but, Taggert for Memphis collected a backbreaking offensive rebound. Kansas now had to foul Derrick Rose with just 10.8 seconds and the lead still 62-60. They then called their final timeout.

Memphis' weakness had finally surfaced. Rose missed his first free throw as well before making the second. Memphis had now missed four of their last five from the line, three of them coming from Douglas-Roberts.

Down three, Kansas now had to inbound and go the length of the floor. Collins took the ball downcourt at a furious pace and stumbled out of control at the three-point line. Somehow, he dropped a pass off for Chalmers before going careening out of bounds like a base runner trying to break up a double play at second base. Chalmers calmly took one dribble to the top of the key, and went up for a fadeaway three with Derrick Rose nearly draped over him. With all Kansas' hopes on the line, the shot pierced the net and the hearts of every Memphis fan. It also spawned the legend of Super Mario Chalmers. The shot tied the game at 63 with just 2.1 left. Dozier would try a half-court heave at the buzzer, but it barely caught the backboard and suddenly the half-buried Jayhawks had forced an incomprehensible overtime session.

Memphis was in even more trouble now because they had to play an overtime without Joey Dorsey, their big man in the middle.

Kansas struck first in the overtime on a Collins steal and a difficult fast-break layup by Brandon Rush, who played high-speed keep-away from two defenders before scoring. Memphis called timeout instantly, as if in full-on panic mode.

This did not help matters much as Kansas got a defensive stop, which led to a pretty alley-oop from Chalmers to Arthur. By now, everything was rolling downhill and sure enough, Kansas opened up a six-point lead one possession later on another easy score, this one from forward Darnell Jackson. Kansas had now come from the depths, answering Memphis previous 16-4 run with an 18-3 stretch of their own.

Douglas-Roberts would finally get Memphis' first field goal of the overtime with just under a minute left, a three that cut the six-point lead in half to keep Memphis in the game. Yet he curiously then decided to deliberately foul Chalmers, who was just too good in this game to miss either shot. This put Kansas up by five and the Tigers never got close again. This would be remembered as the night the Kansas Jayhawks came back from the dead to win the NCAA championship. Chalmers had scored a mere 18 points and yet his impact on the game throughout numerous clutch situations was immeasurable. On top of his heroics in the finale, Super Mario was named the tournament's Most Outstanding Player.

Chalmers now plays for the Miami Heat, where no one, not even teammate and 2006 NBA Finals MVP Dwyane Wade, can say he has ever made a bigger shot.

Final score: Kansas 75, Memphis 68 OT

Other College Hoops Honorable Mentions

• 2/23 Tennessee 66 @ Memphis 62, Tyler Smith jumper ends Memphis' 26-0 start
• NCAA Tourney West Region first round, Western Kentucky 101, Drake 99 OT, Ty Rogers' winning three at the buzzer

Coming soon: Games No. 4 and No. 3

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:03 AM | Comments (0)

The Year of the Major Conference

According to the upcoming Chinese New Year, 2009 is the Year of the Ox. In college basketball, this year may go down as the Year of the Major Conference. It remains to be seen whether or not this is a good omen for major-conference teams with bovine mascots (45-point Wednesday night loser Colorado would likely say no).

When Selection Sunday comes, the vast majority of at-large bids will go to teams from the BCS conferences. If you follow college basketball, you knew that already. The extent to which that may be true may be unknown by the fan amongst the irrelevant chatter about national rankings and who could be the country's best player.

Although whether he is the country's or the SEC's best means little other than an award at the end of the season, Jodie Meeks' 54-point performance was anything but meaningless. The most dominating college hoops performance this observer has seen since Dwyane Wade's triple-double in the NCAA tournament in 2003 ('Cats fans don't need to be reminded against whom) was not only a start-to-finish shooting and scoring exhibition, but may well end up being the season's turning point in the SEC that has been controlled by Florida or Tennessee the last three years.

Kentucky's SEC may be the one BCS conference that does not have what seems to be a semi-infinite number of potential NCAA bids. Just 10 days ago or so, Arkansas was looked at to be a conference co-favorite with the Vols and 'Cats after dispatching of Texas and Oklahoma in seemingly program-reviving wins with a young team.

Now, the Hogs are 0-3 after a non-competitive loss against Florida and have an inexcusable home defeat against Mississippi State on the ledger. Yet, as previously mentioned this is a young team, and a conference record of 9-7 or better would help to match a precedent of selection that is usually followed by the committee, even in an SEC West that the fifth or sixth-placed team in the ACC, Big Ten, or Big East and maybe the Big 12 could dominate.

Last month, I dismissed the Big Ten as having only three good teams or so. Clearly, I was wrong. There are as many as seven NCAA-caliber teams of the 11, and just about everyone in the conference has lived up to or exceeded expectations to this point, save underwhelming Ohio State, Indiana, and maybe Purdue.

There could also be seven NCAA teams in the ACC, although the bottom rung of potential at-larges seems flimsier that than of the Big Ten. Closer to the realm of the ACC is the Big 12, where only the top two teams in Texas and Oklahoma look very solid for the tournament. Kansas and Missouri will both benefit from playing the Big 12 North teams two times, whereas the teams in the South will go through a gauntlet of home-and-homes with four of the Texas/Oklahoma/Baylor/Oklahoma State/Texas A&M quintet.

Then there's the Big East, which at an absolute bare-minimum scenario in which teams start losing South Florida and DePaul regularly, will get seven. (When have we been able to say that about any conference this early?)

Now let's look at those conference totals from an aggregate standpoint. For the sake of argument, say the Big East gets eight, the ACC and Big Ten six, the Big 12 and Pac-10 five, and the SEC four.

Right there, and with somewhat conservative estimates for all conferences but the Pac-10 (I'm counting on Washington and Cal to keep up their good play and one other team to come out of the middle of the current standings like a USC), 28 of 34 at-large bids are accounted for.

The last four years since the beginning of the 16-team Big East tell us that the conferences whose average basketball expenses are over $2 million a year but not BCS leagues in the A10, Conference USA, and Mountain West will get three at-large bids total. That makes just three at-larges for the other 22 mid-majors, a number which could well be less.

Three years ago, during "The Year of the Mid-Major," the Missouri Valley received three at-large bids on its own, and had two other teams that had a claim for a bid. A team called George Mason also received a bid after losing in the CAA semis. A critical reason why those conferences were able to produce reason multi-bid seasons is the same reason why the West Coast Conference and the Sun Belt were able to get three and two bids, respectively: upper and lower divisions.

A mid-major conference that has 10 or so teams that beat each other up all winter may have an exciting race for the regular-season and an even more exciting conference tournament, but will likely have no at-large bids. In each of the four aforementioned conference seasons, at-large teams were able to take care of their business in the non-conference season, and kept bad losses at a minimum.

Of course, the other way to get a bid without winning a conference tournament from a smaller league is to have such a gaudy record and such good wins that you can simply not be overlooked. Butler did this a couple years ago, and is well on its way to doing it again, if it has to exhaust that option. Cleveland State could have been a contender after its thrilling win at Syracuse that doubled as the best win of any mid-major this year. The Vikings have stumbled big-time in conference play, only going 4-4 in the Horizon.

George Mason could be on that path, as a GMU/VCU/Northeastern upper division of potential quality wins has developed in the CAA. The upper-lower chasm has also developed again in the WCC, where the three teams that made the tournament a year ago are the best in the league early on. Like in 2008, Gonzaga and/or St. Mary's would get any at-larges.

Davidson of course will make the NCAAs one way or another because CBS needs Stephen Curry and ESPN needs to talk about him. Conspiracy (and kidding) aside, the Wildcats have shaken off some early conference-season cobwebs and have the luxury of being in a conference where only one other team in the College of Charleston is more than a game over .500.

Siena has started 8-0 in the MAAC, but one would think that they pretty much need to run the table to make that conference a multi-bid league for the first time in more than a decade. The Valley might not quite need a similar run to get a second team, but its best (and possibly only) at-large contender in Illinois State is currently in third place in the MVC.

Yet, the truth remains that in a year where the BCS conferences are beating each other up in ways that help their RPIs and profiles, all of these teams will have especially limited opportunity should they not win their conference's tournament.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:01 AM | Comments (0)

January 16, 2009

How to Fix the Dallas Cowboys

A once-dominant organization feared by many, the Dallas Cowboys have fallen from their lofty expectations. Now, instead of cheering them on, fans are cursing their name, but who can blame them? After going 1-4 to end the season and being booted out of the playoff race in an embarrassing 44-6 loss to their division rival, the pressure is now on owner Jerry Jones to quickly turn this ship around.

After a season filled with off the field issues, locker room controversy, ego problems, and a complete and utter lack of team chemistry, there appears to be no hope in sight. But fret not, Cowboy fans, because when faced with adversity, Jones is always willing to take drastic measures. And by learning from his mistakes of last season, this very talented team can step out from the shadows and in to the limelight once again.

Prepare For the Worst

I wonder if Tony Romo would have sat out three weeks with a pinky injury if he were worried about losing his starting spot to his backup. Well, as long as 40-year-old Brad Johnson is playing second fiddle, he won't be. There are going to be a number of fairly young, yet unproven quarterbacks on the market this offseason, such as Alex Smith, Kyle Boller, and Derek Anderson. Jerry needs to bring someone like this in, not only to provide solid insurance in case of injury, but also to motivate Romo and keep him honest. Perhaps then he'll spend more time in the film room instead of in Mexico with Jessica Simpson.

In addition to this, the Cowboys have to start limiting Marion Barber's carries if they want him to be productive throughout the season. They drafted two running backs in last year's draft, and that's a start, but until the ball is shared a little more, Barber's physical style of running is going to catch up to him sooner or later. Did you know that despite all his success the last few years, he's yet to rush for 1,000 yards?

T.O. Needs to Go

It was a nice experiment. Terrell Owens did some good things in a Cowboys uniform, but when it's over, will he be remembered for his 235 catches and 38 touchdowns, or his bad attitude, continuous complaining, and locker room distractions? Either way, the acquisition of Roy Williams from the Lions earlier in the season pretty much sealed Owens' fate.

It's a proven fact that NFL teams can't have two No. 1 wide receivers on their roster at the same time. One is always jealous of the other over how many passes are going their way, or how much more money they're making than the other one. Ironically, this is what drove Roy Williams out of Detroit in the first place. Another example would be the Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald situation that has played out in Arizona this year; it simply doesn't work without stirring up locker room controversy. And the last thing the Cowboys need right now is more on and off-the-field distractions.

T.O. is now 35, but he may have one or two pretty good seasons left in him. Would a team like the Baltimore Ravens, who attempted to obtain him years ago, give up say, a third-round pick for Owens (don't forget the Cowboys are short on draft picks this year)? They're a talented, playoff-ready team with a strong locker room presence. Plus, they have a big need at wide receiver for strong-armed rookie quarterback Joe Flacco. Would Owens be able to put them over the top?

Or what about a more radical suggestion like the Indianapolis Colts? Tony Dungy has recently retired, Peyton Manning is 32-years-old with only a few elite years still ahead of him, and Marvin Harrison seems all but gone. Needless to say, things are going to be changing a lot over the next few seasons in Indianapolis.

Would the new regime take a chance on T.O. to provide Manning with another legitimate receiving option? It may be just what they need in order to make two or three last runs at a title with their current core roster. T.O. wouldn't object to working with a Hall of Famer in Peyton Manning, and the Cowboys could feel safe that Owens is in the AFC.

Getting rid of Owens would send a message to the rest of the Cowboys, as well. They have already taken the first step towards this by releasing troubled cornerback Adam Jones earlier this month. From now on, it should be straighten up, or you're gone.

It Starts at the Top

This team and its fans lost respect for Wade Phillips and confidence in Jerry Jones long before that shameful thrashing by the Philadelphia Eagles. Jerry has publicly stated that Phillips is going to be retained as his coach next season (yet another action that has sapped fan confidence). But anyone who follows football knows that Jerry will do anything to make his team a winner. And if that means stepping on people's toes, bullying someone around, or even going back on his word, then so be it.

With that said, it's clear that the number one thing that could be done to restore the life back into this proud football team would be to replace Wade Phillips. Offensive coordinator Jason Garret is probably leaving for a head coaching job this offseason, so the time is ripe to just clean house. Everyone's thinking it, Jerry just needs to do it.

Let's face it, Phillips has been an overall disappointment. After experiencing early success whilst riding in on the coattails of Bill Parcells, things have begun to unravel quickly for the new coach. He has reaped the benefits of Parcells' roster and team discipline to its full extent, and this season, it was time to provide his own direction for the team. We have now all witnessed where that direction has led them to.

Phillips lost the locker room, and once that went, so did the respect and control over his players. Tony Romo even openly refused to adhere to Phillips' playcalling during the blow-out in Philadelphia that ended their season, by waving off an order to send out the punting unit on fourth down. If this isn't a sign that a team needs a new leader, then what is?

This example actually defines the entire problem in more ways than one. A strong coach, one who commands the respect and admiration of players and fans alike, would have never let a team with that much talent come close to missing the playoffs in the first place, let alone shrug off their play-call from the sideline. For once, Jerry Jones needs more than just a "yes" man as his head coach. This is a very talented group of players, but they're not a team. And neither an overbearing owner nor an underachieving follower of a coach is going to be able to fix that.

Jerry needs someone with the kind of leadership to take control of his team when things get rocky and the determination to see them through to the postseason. He needs someone with experience; a proven winner. He needs someone who players fear just as much as they love. Jerry needs him and the Cowboys need him. That man is Bill Cowher.

Now many would argue that almost every team in the league would benefit from having Cowher as their head coach. However, no other team is currently setup with the type of personnel that would allow Cowher to come in and be an instant success. For one thing, the Cowboys already run an aggressive 3-4 defense that gives opposing offensive coordinators nightmares. Switching out of a 4-3 would cost teams a couple of year's worth of roster tweaking before the transition was really complete.

The Cowboys' stout defensive linemen do a good job of holding up the point of attack, while their talented linebacking group puts plenty of pressure on the quarterback, out-sacking their opponents 59 to 31 on the season (does this sound at all familiar to those great Steeler defenses?). The great pass rush generated by the linebackers more than compensates for a solid, yet underachieving group of defensive backs. And as great a fit as this would be, it doesn't just stop on the defensive side of the ball, either.

Cowher's Pittsburgh Steelers were renowned for their smashmouth style of offense almost as much as their devastating defenses. The 2008 Steelers still use huge, pile-moving offensive lineman to enhance their power running game, and the Dallas Cowboy's offensive line is no exception. With an average weight of 327 lbs, the Cowboys already love using their size to push people around up front, and Marion Barber definitely doesn't shy away from contact.

Jerry, get out your checkbook. Cowher has stated that he isn't quite ready to coach again, perhaps wanting to wait another season or two. But as we all know, money talks, and with Jerry, money is never an issue if it means his team is going to be winning (he's one of the few owners who are actually in favor of abolishing the salary cap). Jerry could, without a doubt, make an offer that Cowher simply couldn't refuse, and why not? Is there really a better option out there?

Some are arguing that Mike Shanahan, recently let go from the Denver Broncos, would be a good fit. And while he could no doubt do wonders for Tony Romo and the inconsistent passing game, there are other issues that would prevent Shanahan from succeeding right away. First off, while his passing plays are transferable, the running game would suffer greatly. A signature of Shanahan's famous offensive style is the zone blocking scheme. The zone blocking scheme is a blocking system that utilizes movement on the offensive line, rather than opening a specific hole. In this system, an offensive lineman's speed and athletic ability are far more important than actual strength. This is why teams who use zone blocking covet slightly smaller, quicker offensive lineman versus the powerful, yet slow-moving giants currently used in places like Pittsburgh and Dallas.

Shanahan is the best there ever was at incorporating this into his running game, however, to make this work in Dallas would require years of turnover on the offensive line as starters were replaced and new ones trained. Last anyone checked, Jerry Jones wasn't a patient man, which is another reason why Cowher would fit in perfectly. He would require the least amount of roster makeover to incorporate his own style of play. The players would love him, the fans would go insane, and Jerry would be happy again, because he'd be winning.

Posted by Kenneth Dean at 11:28 AM | Comments (2)

January 15, 2009

NFL Predictions: Conf. Championships

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Philadelphia @ Arizona (+3)

In an unlikely matchup in the NFC Championship, the No. 4-seeded Cardinals host the No. 6-seeded Eagles in the cozy climes of Arizona's University of Phoenix Stadium. Few expected Arizona to advance to the NFC title game, much less play host to it, but the sudden resurgence of the Cardinals defense, coupled with losses by the NFC's top three seeded teams, will bring the Eagles to Glendale.

"If there was a turning point to our season," says Ken Whisenhunt, "then it would have to be one of the numerous blowouts we suffered on the East Coast this year. One of those was our 48-20 loss to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, and fittingly, after the 'Thanksgiving Day Massacre,' I had to 'talk turkey' with my team and challenge them to stop playing like chickens. They responded; it just took a few weeks. For now, though, we've exorcised the 'albatross' of playing on the East Coast, just in time for a potential trip to Tampa."

"No one expected the Cardinals to be here. That's what Jake Delhomme said after finding an Arizona defender in his passing lane five times. But we're taking our success in stride. And 'in stride' is exactly how our defenders intercepted those passes. I'm not sure what was going on in that head of Delhomme's, but I know what was happening on that head of his — a bowl cut."

"If anyone fails to take us seriously now, then they've got another thing coming. We avenged one of those East Coast losses by jumping on the Panthers early and forcing them to go to their hurry-up offense in the second quarter. Delhomme may have a bionic elbow, but his vision is far from super-human. Suffice it to say he made a 'spectacle' of himself. It was very noble of Delhomme to apologize to his teammates for his play, and it was also a nice gesture when Steve Smith apologized to Ken Lucas for punching the wrong person."

After compiling a 9-6-1 regular season record that just did get them into the playoffs, the Eagles have reeled off two convincing wins to reach their fifth conference title game in 10 years. Donovan McNabb has led the charge and has quieted the rumors about his future as an Eagle, earning the praise of Andy Reid, who called McNabb "one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL" after their win over the Giants.

"I've seen and heard it all this season," says McNabb. "First, my head coach benches me earlier in the year; now, he's got nothing but love for me. Coach Reid's gone from saying 'take a seat' to saying 'take a seat, on my lap.' It reminds me of my mother's, and it also seats four."

"As an athlete in such a sports-religious city such as Philadelphia, I'm used to going from crucified to deified in just a matter of weeks, or, in some cases, days. If I don't lead us to a win over Arizona, I'm sure all the bad-mouthing and slanderous words will begin anew, and that's just from my mom defending me on her web site."

Philadelphia can learn a lot from last week's Panthers/Cardinals game, specifically by watching film of the Panthers and then doing the exact opposite. The Panthers got very little pressure on Kurt Warner, and their coverage of Arizona's receivers was nonexistent, so nonexistent that by halftime, the Panthers' front office was already trying to trade up in the 2009 draft for a cornerback, or two.

One would expect the Eagles to unmercifully pressure Warner, and that would probably be a wise strategy. But Arizona has played so far in the playoffs like they've been one step ahead of the competition. They definitely knew what the Panthers' intentions were. Now, don't listen when someone says Arizona, who played last Saturday, had an extra day to prepare for the Eagles, who played on Sunday. That's simply not true; the Cards didn't know they were playing the Eagles until Philly won, Sunday evening.

Ken Whisenhunt and his staff know their first order of business is to make sure Warner has time to throw. If Warner doesn't have time, then the Cardinals really have no "Plan B." Arizona will have to commit the extra man or two to protect Warner. When the Eagles blitz, they'll need to get to Warner quickly, because there's likely single coverage behind it. And one man cannot check Larry Fitzgerald.

Offensively, Philadelphia needs a big game from Brian Westbrook. He's done little on the ground in Philly's two playoff wins, but the Eagles really need him in the passing game. First of all, as a big-play threat. Second of all, as an outlet for McNabb, who's likely to face some blitzes of his own. I think the Cardinals feel they can cover Philly's wide receivers man-to-man, so some of their blitzes may come from their linebackers. This is when Westbrook coming out of the backfield could be critical.

In the climate-controlled interior of University of Phoenix Stadium, the weather will be conducive to offensive production, which is a treat for fans who enjoy high-scoring games. That weather will also be conducive to FOX sideline reporter Tony Siragusa wearing shorts while he sandwiches rendezvous with stadium food vendors between his quirky sideline observations. Oh, the horror! Philadelphia wins, 30-23.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5)

The third Ravens/Steelers clash of the season may well be the most emotionally charged, physically demanding, and highly anticipated AFC Championship Game of all time. The hatred between Baltimore and Pittsburgh runs deeper than Jerry Jones' pockets, and the carnage when the dust settles may well resemble the aftermath of a Pacman Jones' foray into a strip club.

"Hey, I believe that's the first time the Cowboys have been mentioned in the playoffs," says Baltimore's rookie head coach John Harbaugh. "But not the last. What's the big deal about guns being pointed at Michael Irvin? Those policemen were just doing their jobs. Now, unlike the Cowboys' situations, the bounties for the AFC title game will be issued by the participating teams, and not law enforcement agencies."

"Did I say 'bounty?' I must have misspoken, because bounties don't exist in the NFL. I'll tell you what does exist — me winking uncontrollably. Anyway, a league directive has informed us to cease using the term 'bounty.' Understand I'm not too fond of their suggested replacement, but Hines Ward is at the top of our 'honey-do list.'"

"Not too many teams are capable of beating the Titans and Steelers on the road in consecutive weeks, but I like our chances to run the gauntlet. Obviously, we've got no problem 'throwing down' the gauntlet. We'll have to make the plays to beat the Steelers. Against the Titans, we made the plays when we had to, as did the official responsible for throwing the flag for delay of game. I've heard of officials 'swallowing' their whistles; I shudder to think where that yellow flag went. But I'm glad it went there."

The Steelers have two wins over the Ravens under their belts already this year, but both were by narrow margins, a 23-20 overtime win in Week 4, and a 13-9 triumph in Week 15. With both defenses playing well and temperatures forecast in the teens, there's reason to believe another defensive struggle is at hand. As epic AFC title games go, this one should easily live up to the hype. It will be a slugfest.

"You darn right it will be a slugfest," says Ben Roethlisberger. "I'd say it would be nice to have famous ring announcer Michael Buffer at Heinz Field for his 'let's get ready to rumble' announcement, but I'm afraid a man in a tuxedo with a noticeably fake tan wouldn't fit well with Steeler fans, and would be pummeled to death."

"Fans can expect a low-scoring affair. And while we're on the subject of boxing, I've been informed that the game will be judged on the '10-point must system.' All we need know to complete the boxing analogy is a crooked judge, and if referee Walt Coleman is assigned to the game, he certainly fits the bill."

"The game will be legendary. Sunday's rematch in chilly Heinz Field will certainly put the 'icing' on what has already been a playoff season of rematches. How's that for a corny play on words? Chris Bermann would be envious."

Like Roethlisberger in 2004, Joe Flacco is in the AFC Championship Game as a rookie. Roethlisberger had 4 turnovers in the Steelers' 41-27 loss to the Patriots. Flacco has yet to turn the ball over in two games this postseason, but has yet to face the stage of such an epic conference final. Turnovers are likely to decide the outcome of Sunday's game, and in a game featuring two brutish defenses, turnovers are inevitable.

Both teams will try early to run the ball. Pittsburgh, with a healthy (at least until he's hurt in the second quarter) Willie Parker, along with backup Mwelde Moore (quoth the Raven?), will test the edges of the Baltimore defense. Will the Steelers have any luck? Nevermore. The Ravens won't find running room, either. With these two disciplined defenses, there will be more gap-filling than on a Minnesota Vikings nautical excursion. So both teams will resort to the passing game, which is the best way to move the ball against the defenses. At least until they get into the red zone. So, the bet way to score a touchdown is on a play over 20 yards in length.

The Steelers will pick on cornerback Fabian Washington, not because he showed weakness against the Titans, but because his name is "Fabian." As for the Ravens and Flacco, why not test the calf of Troy Polamalu? A pump fake or a good play action fake, and the aggressive safety might commit a "snafu," which in the Samoan dialect means "mistake," I believe.

Once the passing starts, that's when the short routes and cold-hardened football will result in lots of big hits across the middle and tipped passes, those that are easily intercepted and returned for scores. Will Ed Reed snatch one of these and make a big return? Maybe, maybe not. In any case, Reed needs to touch the ball as much as possible, so expect him to return a few punts, of which there should be plenty.

What's the bottom line? I think the Steelers and Roethlisberger find success through the air, and turn a halftime deficit into a 22-19 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:59 AM | Comments (1)

Slant Pattern Reviews the Networks

I've written a few articles about different sportswriters, pundits, and announcers that I like or don't like, but I haven't looked much at the those who deliver the sportswriters, pundits, and announcers to us as a whole.

I'm thinking specifically about the announcers here, as I grade each of the sports channels and the sports bureaus of the major over-the-air networks.

ESPN/ABC

At least in terms of volume, they aren't the Worldwide Leader for nothing. You may not like the hype they produce or the influence they wield, but you can't really complain abut the volume of actual sports content they deliver. ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN360, ESPN Gameplan and Full Court, as well as their magazine and website, they just buy up the contracts of as many sports and then deliver them.

For that, they will always be high in my book. Plus, most of their anchors, analysts, and announcers are more hit (Kirk Herbstreit, Bill Raftery) than misses (Dick Vitale, Stephen A. Smith). The hype, I can ignore. The odious "ESPN Original Programming," I can ignore. The scapegoating for the sports world grievance du jour, I can especially ignore.

GRADE: B+

FOX Sports (non-cable)

Ugh. When I think of hype, I don't think ESPN, I think Fox. The graphics. The noise. The Joe Buck. The Tim McCarver. The weirdness of them owning most of the BCS bowl rights even though they don't show regular season college football. The fact that they relegated the Fiesta Bowl to Matt Vasgersian and Tim Ryan, which is their end-of-the-bench NFL duo. If the sports broadcasting world was a cocktail party, FOX Sports would be the guy with the greasy, curly mullet drinking Busch Beer and wearing Zubaz pants. In other words, it would be Tony Siragusa.

GRADE: D-

CBS

When I was a kid, and CBS had the NFC and NBC had the AFC, CBS was the more hard-hitting, testosterone-laden coverage, while NBC was more reserved and traditional. Now with the NFC on FOX and the AFC on CBS, they have reversed roles.

But that's a good thing. They are the clear leader on a number of sports — golf, college basketball, perhaps the NFL — as well as a lack of bombast. They also took over College Sports Television (CSTV), and did a great job of improving it (it's now "CBS College Sports.")

GRADE: A

NBC

Of the major networks, they seem to be the least interested in and invested in sports. The NBC Sports website lags far behind its peers, and until they got Sunday Night Football, they had gone years without placing a successful bid on a sport more notable than hockey. What did Bob Costas do with his time? I suppose they put all of their sports eggs in the Olympics basket, but I don't give them credit for that because it's only a couple of weeks every two years, and for their streaming web content, they made the dreadful decision to partner with Microsoft and utilize Microsoft Silverlight, which messed up many a computer, including mine.

But I do like their treatment of SNF. I don't know who made the decision to make SNF the marquee evening game and MNF the booby prize that mediocre teams appear on (it used to be the opposite), but NBC has done well with it, treating the weekly game with reverence without teetering to over-seriousness. I also appreciate that they didn't get cute when it came time to announce the SNF booth team.

GRADE: B-

FOX Sports Regional

I'm going ahead and going to grade this differently than the main FOX brand (which I did not do for ESPN/ABC) because it's a completely different animal.

It is better than its big brother, but that's not saying much.

The model is interesting, and I think a good one: lead the way in local sports markets for game coverage, and nationally syndicate some more games (ACC Sunday Night Hoops, Big 12/Pac 10 football) and send it to most or all those affiliates. It's not an original idea, however. FOX Sports Regional rose from the ashes of the similar SportsChannel America.

FSR's biggest problem is it comes off as very low budget (which it surely is) with cheap production values. They desperately need to put in a winning bid for some major professional sport on a non-local basis, even hockey. Many of the specific regional networks don't even have their own webpage. Their college brand, the three-channel FO College Sports, is a complete joke that doesn't even deserve mentioned in the same sentence as ESPNU and CBS College Sports (Northern Arizona basketball, anyone?). But they do have some nice announcers, like the team of Barry Tompkins and Petros Papadakis.

GRADE: C

Versus

The new kid on the block. Their programming lineup reminds me a bit of early-'80s ESPN. They are just trying to get their hands on whatever table scraps they can (rodeo, hockey, non-BCS conference college football and basketball) and do an earnest job with it. I also give them credit for creating the first sports-themed "Best Week Ever"-type show, which has been screaming to be done for years.

GRADE: Incomplete

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

January 14, 2009

As the Ball Bounces

If change is the new theme of 2009, college basketball has been years ahead of its time.

North Carolina was supposed to be unbeatable, yet the Tar Heels now stand 0-2 in ACC play. Gonzaga was slated as a serious Final Four contender, but the Zags lost three in a row and vanished from the national stage. Then there's the team Gonzaga's beaten twice, Tennessee, who was sitting in the top 10 before the season started, but is also no longer to be found in the polls.

Change is so commonplace in college hoops that it's a surprise for there to be no surprises. Thankfully, though, come March, everything gets settled, which can shift our focus from the national scale to the conference scale. Who will be the teams to triumph in conference play, and earn those coveted invites to the Big Dance? It might be early, but here's how I see the college basketball landscape looking.

ACC

The title should stay within the state of North Carolina, but the team to beat isn't on Tobacco Road. How about those Demon Deacons of Wake Forest? Jeff Teague is playing at All-American levels, and it's Wake that sits at 14-0 right now in the conference. Why do I like Wake? Besides Teague, you have three other starters averaging double digits in points. Wake averages 9 steals and almost 6 blocks a game. Strong defense, capped with great shooting, makes Wake the team to watch.

Others to watch: Duke, of course, is loaded, and oh, did we forget Psycho T is still tearing it up at North Carolina? And this year, it looks as if the usual quick start of Clemson has some merit to it. The ACC is officially back in business.

Big Ten

It looks like another banner year for Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans. MSU jumped to a quick 2-0 start in conference play, and though their collapse against North Carolina is duly noted, their win over Kansas suggests they are getting stronger as the schedule progresses, a staple of an Izzo-led ballclub. F Raymar Morgan is a force, leading the team in points and rebounds. However, there are two things to watch for with State. One is their ability to handle the ball. The Spartans average just 13 turnovers and have a solid 1.3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Second, Michigan State shoots just over 40 percent as a team from behind the arc. Streaky? After 15 games, I call that consistently scorching.

Others to watch: Obviously, Michigan is better on the hardcourt than the gridiron, and should be considered in the Big Dance field, but for a quiet contender, I like what Bruce Weber has done at Illinois. The Illini have a couple of strong guards in Trent Meacham and Demetri McCamey, and guard play in the Big 10 is essential.

Big 12

Never count out Kansas. Never. Having said that, the favorite in my mind is Oklahoma. Blake Griffin has been a force inside for the Sooners, which has freed up Tony Crocker and Willie Warren to maximize their three-point sharpshooting. The Sooners have the ability to run, yet also know how to win games playing half-court. Their ability to adapt to the style of the game makes them a name to watch in March.

Others to watch: I can't say it enough, you never count out the Jayhawks. No question, Texas is a loaded team, but it is clear in the start that their fate lies in the hands of A.J. Abrams. For darkhorse specials, look at Scott Drew's Baylor program, as well as what Doc Sadler's doing at Nebraska. Both of those teams have potential to make some serious noise in the conference.

Big East

Too many good teams in this conference, but until someone shows me they can manhandle Pitt, I'm sticking with the Panthers. Pitt's frontcourt of Sam Young and DeJuan Blair is solid, but the main reason why Pitt wins is that the Panthers simply do not beat themselves. They shoot well, don't turn over the ball that much and don't get into foul trouble. Pitt wins the old-fashioned way: solid defense with enough offense to finish opponents off. For someone to beat Pitt, they have to have all cylinders firing. It can happen, but it's just rare, which is why Pitt is the team is the beat.

Others to watch: Too many good teams to talk about, so I'll just name them: Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova ... and oh yeah, did I mention UConn?

SEC

Very hard to guess here. No team is in the Top 25. Arkansas has the most votes, and with their resume wins over Oklahoma and Texas, one would have to pencil in the Razorbacks as Big Dance material. However, their collapse at home against Mississippi State raises questions and reminds us of how young that program is. Nevertheless, give John Pelphrey tremendous credit for what's he already done in Fayetteville. So for now, let's take the safe route and pick Tennessee. Chris Lofton is gone, but the Vols have plenty of talent in the frontcourt to be the aggressors on the court. And no matter the sport, in the SEC, the physical, aggressive teams win.

Others to watch: Tennessee and Arkansas have the best paths to the Dance, with Kentucky not far behind. The Wildcats seem to be in sync right now. And as long as Ronald Steele is around, watch Alabama. LSU is a sleeper, and don't forget Mississippi State. They play four guards with monster Jarvis Varnado in the middle, but if MSU is able to keep the tempo fast, they're tough to beat.

Pac-10

Someone in California will claim the title, and though Mike Montgomery's done a great job with Cal right now, I'm going with UCLA until proven otherwise. It always helps to have a veteran backcourt, and the Bruins have Darren Collison and Josh Shipp running the show. They've been through about as many wars as you can imagine, so in the tough games in conference play, when it comes down to the last five minutes, who would you trust to handle their teams the best in that level of pressure? Give Ben Howland his due, as well. He's kept the Bruins in the national spotlight, and though Bruin basketball isn't as dominant in the Pac-10 as USC football, UCLA has still been the team to beat since Howland paced the bench.

Others to watch: No doubt California is a tough March out. I also like Herb Sendek's Arizona State squad. Sendek is a coach that has always preached tough defense, and though his offense hasn't clicked every game, you can always count on a few upsets from the Sun Devils with their smothering defensive attack.

Cinderella Specials (The Early Edition)

VMI is 6-0 in the Big South and 14-2 overall, with a win at Kentucky on their resume. The Keydets can run teams out of the gym. North Dakota State is the rising power in the Summit League, and Ben Woodside is a name worth talking about on the Bison squad. Saint Mary's (15-1, 2-0) could be the team to end Gonzaga's WCC reign. And I love teams from the Missouri Valley, so keep some eyes out on Drake and Illinois State, who features a quiet star in Osiris Eldridge.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

The Economy and NASCAR: '09 Predictions

* Not only will fuel mileage play a crucial role in races, but hauler drivers will be asked to employ fuel strategy just to move equipment from track to track.

* Joe Gibbs Racing will cut its magnet budget by 100%.

* The season's longest race, the Coca-Cola 600, will be drastically shortened, and, with a slight sponsor change, will then be known as the Coke Zero.

* Fans who enjoy seeing Michael Waltrip in Aaron Rents commercials will be delighted when the new Aaron's advertising campaign debuts, featuring Waltrip's bubbly persona pushing "Aaron's Sells (Off Their Inventory)" and "Aaron's Goes Bankrupt."

* Tony Stewart, relaxing in his hauler after a win in the Shelby 427 at Las Vegas Speedway while trying to recruit local talent for a wild party, will realize that $20 doesn't get you what it used to.

* Teams will justify mid-season firings of underperforming drivers by calling them "layoffs." Reed Sorenson will be laid off twice.

* Winner's purses will dwindle, and at some of the smaller, more budget-tight tracks, the winner's purse will be just that — a purse with some loose change in it. Kurt Busch will be slapped with a purse on three occasions in 2009. On one occasion, he will slap back with a handbag of his own.

* Burnouts and victory laps will be banned, and, as a gas-saving measure, NASCAR will introduce a portable "Victory Circle," fashioned from cardboard and excess SAFER barrier and powered by a Wood Brothers engine.

* Ceremonial fly-overs will cease to be a part of pre-race festivities, and NASCAR will instead direct the fans' attention to the skies above each track, where they promise a large passenger jet is flying somewhere overhead at 30,000 feet.

* Merchandise sales will suffer, and race teams will be forced to utilize incentives to entice fans to buy. While other teams slash prices nearly in half, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s merchandising arm eschews that strategy and instead offers a "buy seven, get one free" deal that loyal yet naïve Junior fans quickly pounce on. However, a commemorative plate depicting Dale, Jr. and Tony Eury, Jr. bickering over the radio fails to sell, and is quickly placed in the clearance section.

* NASCAR will be rocked by an accounting scandal. It will quickly become oddly similar to last year's Mauricia Grant scandal when three male NASCAR accountants expose themselves in response to a comely female IRS agents request for an external audit.

* Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick will scuffle in Charlotte after they both kneel to pick up the same shiny penny in the garage and bump heads.

* FOX Sports will be stricken by the sub-prime mortgage crisis when the Hollywood Hotel is foreclosed upon due to defaulted payments and is repossessed during a caution on lap 167 at Daytona.

* Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will tender an offer to purchase Teresa Earnhardt's stake in Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. Ultimately, Teresa Earnhardt will decline her stepson's offer for a straight up trade of Junior's Whisky River bar for her shares in the newly-merged team.

* Kyle Busch will win the 2009 Sprint Cup championship, and will graciously accept his trophy, thanking his owner and team, as well as the staff of the Super 8 Hotel on Interstate 95 in New York City, which, due to financial constraints, takes the place of the Waldorf Astoria as site of the 2009 NASCAR Awards Banquet.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:43 AM | Comments (3)

January 13, 2009

NFL Divisional Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* The Associated Press released its annual all-pro team this week. Most of the first-team selections make sense, but some of the second-team picks are really weird. I don't know who these people are that vote for Walter Jones and Chris Samuels every year.

* Worst first-team pick: Le'Ron McClain at fullback. He's primarily a tailback. All my own choices are online at SC's 2008 NFL All-Pro Team.

* The Hall of Fame has announced this year's finalists, and it's a very strong class. My favorites are Dermontti Dawson, Bob Hayes, Claude Humphrey, Shannon Sharpe, Bruce Smith, and Rod Woodson.

* The Tennessee Titans looked awfully dangerous on Saturday. If they were in the NFC, they'd play in Super Bowl XLIII.

* Hey, CBS: 15-yard penalties are important. SHOW THEM.

***

Divisional Roundups

Ravens @ Titans

Dan Dierdorf summed this up about as well as possible: "For the Titans, it's pretty simple — turnovers, penalties, and the loss of Chris Johnson in the second half."

Tennessee committed three turnovers in scoring position, and even a field goal on any one of them likely would have meant overtime. You could see several Titans carrying the ball loosely, and it seems clear that ball security is something this team will need to work on next season.

During the game, the Titans were flagged for 12 penalties worth 89 yards. There were a lot of fouls called, and the Ravens also had 40 yards in penalties, but that 49-yard difference is a really big deal in a close game. Tennessee drew three flags for unnecessary roughness.

Turnovers were the critical difference in this game, but perhaps nothing was more obvious than the loss of Chris Johnson with an ankle injury that kept him out of the second half. Johnson was easily the most explosive play-maker (on either team) in the first half, but LenDale White was ineffective in relief, and the offense suffered noticeably in Johnson's absence.

It seems like whenever a team has a dominant first half that doesn't show on the scoreboard, that team is in trouble. Against a good opponent, you have to capitalize on opportunities, and Tennessee didn't do that. After doing a real number on Baltimore's defense in the first half — 256 yards, 18:47 time of possession — the Titans went into the locker room tied at 7.

What the Ravens have done exceptionally this postseason — and more generally, for most of the last year — is make the most of their opportunities. If there's a pass to be intercepted or a fumble to be recovered, the Ravens get it. This team simply doesn't drop interceptions, plus they cause a lot of fumbles, and they're always looking to score on the runback. Baltimore is +7 in turnovers during the playoffs.

Credit is also due to Flacco and his offensive teammates, who avoided the big mistake this weekend. And how great is Derrick Mason? He plays in a system where he's never going to have big numbers, but Mason, who turns 35 this week, was a difference-maker on Saturday, and he's one of the 10 best wide receivers in the NFL.

Cardinals @ Panthers

In Week 17, I suggested three potential weaknesses for Carolina: "Jake Delhomme, who has played well recently but is prone to occasional very bad games; a suddenly porous defense, which has allowed more than 30 points in four of the last six weeks; and Giants Stadium, the only place Carolina might have a road game before the Super Bowl." Two out of three ain't bad.

I will freely admit that I didn't see the Panthers losing at home on Saturday. The Cardinals overcame the loss of Anquan Boldin, their East Coast road trip struggles, and Carolina's 8-0 mark at home. That's pretty heroic, and it was not something a lot of people expected. The Cardinals' defense is the story of this postseason.

Arizona's offense, even without Boldin, was also in fine form. Larry Fitzgerald had a phenomenal game (8 receptions, 166 yards, TD). The Panthers' failure to contain Fitzgerald — especially in contrast to the Cardinals bottling up Steve Smith — was astounding. Their inability to stop Arizona's ground attack in the fourth quarter was disappointing, too, but more understandable, given the time of possession deficit (39:49-20:11). That defense must have been exhausted.

Finally, Delhomme was a disaster in this game. Almost half of Carolina's possessions ended with a Delhomme turnover (6/13). What does this guy have to do to get benched? It wouldn't have been crazy to pull him at halftime, and it was crazy to keep him in for the fourth quarter. I know Matt Moore was pretty bad last year, and no one will confuse Josh McCown for Tom Brady, but it's not like those guys could have been any worse. Would John Fox rather lose a playoff game than risk a quarterback controversy?

Speaking of Fox, what a sore loser. If you're down by 26 points, with less than a minute left, it is childish to call timeouts so your team can score. It's delusional to go for two on the point after, and it's just rude to call an onside kick afterwards. The whole thing was disrespectful. Fox wasted everybody's time: he put the fans through 10 minutes of what should have taken 57 seconds, he put the Cardinals at risk of injury, and he prolonged his own team's misery. Grow up, coach.

Even apart from lousy sportsmanship, Fox and his coaching staff did a miserable job this weekend. On a day when Delhomme was getting killed, they ran 36 pass plays and just 15 runs. Some of that was a comeback attempt in the fourth quarter, but a lot of it was bad play-calling earlier in the game. And where was Steve Smith all day? Call screens for him, put him back on punt returns, anything. Your most explosive player needs to touch the ball more than two times. Finally, the defensive coaches never adjusted their coverage to double-team Fitzgerald. That's pretty poor. The failure by Carolina's coaches to react during the game turned this into a blowout.

Eagles @ Giants

Obviously the Eagles would win. They had to, so they can lose in the NFC Championship Game. It's an Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb tradition.

This victory was less about the Eagles dominating the game than making plays when they needed to. They were 50% on third-down conversions, compared to the Giants' 23%. Philadelphia also got four first downs via penalty (which is a very high number) and New York went 0/3 in the red zone (3 FG, no TD).

The Eagles were successful despite very little production from their running backs. Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter combined for 43 rushing yards and 29 receiving (72 total). Compare that to the Giants' Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, who totaled 138 rushing and 24 receiving (162). New York was effective running the ball, but Eli Manning did not have a good game.

Manning passed for 169 yards, with 2 interceptions and a 40.7 passer rating. He also had a failed QB sneak on which it didn't look like he was trying very hard. Eli was great in the playoffs last year, but his career postseason numbers are not impressive: 185 ypg, 8 TD, 7 INT, 77.6 rating. Point of comparison: 77.6 is somewhere between JaMarcus Russell and Kyle Orton.

Having said that, this is not entirely Eli's fault. The Philadelphia defense has been lights-out for the last month or two, and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson did a great job in this game.

Chargers @ Steelers

The Steelers looked unstoppable on Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger, whose inconsistent play — especially right after injuries — had been a concern, played a great game, and the defense was sensational. Pittsburgh deserves a ton of credit, but I also think a lot of us overreacted to San Diego's wild card win against Indianapolis. The Chargers own the Colts, and expecting them to replicate that performance against Pittsburgh was unrealistic, especially for a trip to the Eastern time zone to play in the snow.

All the things San Diego did so well last week were limited or altogether absent in Pittsburgh. Philip Rivers took unnecessary sacks. Darren Sproles had 11 carries for 15 yards, and his biggest play came when the outcome was already pretty certain. Mike Scifres, the punter who was a hero last week, had one returned for a touchdown, the first return TD allowed in his career.

But most of all, the Chargers' defense let them down. You beat Pittsburgh by limiting mistakes, and forcing Roethlisberger into turnovers. The Chargers never pressured him. Big Ben had time to throw all day, and he only took one sack. All afternoon, San Diego used a four-man pass rush. It is said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Well, the Chargers rushed four men over and over again, and they never got different results. I doubt Ron Rivera had money riding on the Steelers, so either he's insane or he's never heard of blitzing.

Big Ben didn't have a huge game statistically (17-of-26, 181 yards, TD), but he really played well. Of course, San Diego's vanilla defense didn't hurt, and he got a huge assist from Willie Parker. San Diego's defense had particular trouble stopping outside runs. Twelve of Parker's 17 runs in the second half were outside the tackles, picking up 82 yards and a game-clinching touchdown. The Chargers never adjusted.

The Steelers got a couple of breaks and lucky bounces, but they really controlled this game, and were better in every phase.

The Final Four

I've always been resistant to the notion that defense wins championships (implying that offense is less important), but it sure looks true this year. Three of the four best defensive teams in the NFL (Steelers, Ravens, Eagles) are still active, and the other one (Titans) would still be around if they hadn't played Baltimore. The other team still alive (Cardinals) has played superb defense in the playoffs.

I suspect that turnovers have been more important this postseason than in any previous year. The winning teams this week were a combined +11 in turnovers, committing 3 and forcing 14. If you include both Wild Card Weekend and Divisional Weekend, the final four are a combined +17 in turnovers.

Conference Championship Forecast

Ravens @ Steelers

In my Week 17 Power Rankings, I had Baltimore ranked first and Pittsburgh second. I still think the Ravens are probably the best team in the NFL right now, but I'm picking the Steelers.

Pittsburgh swept the season series (although one of them was that shady "indisputable visual evidence" game), and this one will be played in Pittsburgh. The Steelers look healthy, while several key Ravens may be limited or unavailable because of injuries.

It's an even matchup between very similar teams. Both rely on stalwart, opportunistic defenses led by pass-rushing linebackers and play-making safeties. They each prefer to run the ball, and both look for the big play when they pass. The Ravens have better special teams, particularly at punter. I've given up expecting Joe Flacco to act like a rookie, but I'm also not going to gamble on Big Ben having a Delhomme-type performance, even against that Baltimore defense.

If the Ravens were the healthy team, I'd probably pick them. They're not, so I'm going with Pittsburgh by a field goal.

Eagles @ Cardinals

Every game this past weekend was a rematch from the regular season. So are both conference championship matchups. If the Eagles win, the Super Bowl will also be a rematch. That would mean nine of 11 postseason games ending up as rematches, including the last seven in a row.

So far this season, playoff road teams are 5-3. Since the 2002 expansion and realignment, a road team has won its conference championship game every year except 2006. Is this a lead-up to picking the visiting Eagles? No, it's waffling. The Eagles are probably a better team, but if Arizona's defense and running game perform the way they did the last two weeks, the Cardinals will win. Philadelphia has historically underperformed in NFC Championship Games, but the team is on fire right now, and I don't see them letting up. See how I'm waffling? I feel that Arizona has a substantial home field advantage, but I think the Eagles are hungrier. For waffles.

The wild card in this contest is the running game, and whichever team can run more effectively probably has the edge. I actually think the Cardinals — who ranked 32nd in rushing — have the better run game right now. Brian Westbrook clearly is not 100%, and he hasn't had a really great game recently. The last time he averaged four yards per rush was the last time these teams met, a month and a half ago on Thanksgiving. That's probably balanced out at least somewhat by Philadelphia's defense, which is better than Arizona's.

For the Cardinals to win, they need the defense to come up with a couple of big turnovers again. For the Eagles to win, they need one or two big plays from their offense — DeSean Jackson and Westbrook, in particular — and they've got to break even in the turnover battle. They might be able to get away with -1, but not -2. I don't see the Cardinals coming up +2 in turnovers again. Eagles by a touchdown.

A Brief Word About Tony Dungy

I've never seen so many people cry at one press conference. Team owner Jim Irsay, GM Bill Polian, and Dungy all choked up during the 45-minute presser to announce Coach Dungy's retirement. It speaks to Dungy's demeanor off the field that his retirement is so emotional for those who worked with him, and he has garnered extensive praise for winning "his way." Dungy's "way" stands in stark contrast to the other elite head coach of his era, Bill Belichick, who is widely perceived as a ruthless, win-at-all-costs type. Dungy was never willing to put football above treating others with caring and respect.

Tony Dungy is very much a product of Chuck Noll, for whom he was both a player and an assistant coach, but he reminds me of no one more than Dick Vermeil, who was similarly beloved, and who matched success on the field with concern about what happened off it.

The Colts remain in capable hands, with associate head coach Jim Caldwell taking over for Dungy and leaving most or all of the current staff intact. Despite underachievement in the postseason, Dungy is a likely Hall of Famer, and I think that's probably appropriate. On his record alone, Dungy would be a borderline case. He is among the top 20 winningest coaches in history, with a fantastic winning percentage and a Super Bowl ring. He holds the NFL record for most consecutive seasons making the playoffs (10). Intangibles should put him over the top.

As the first African-American head coach to win a Super Bowl, Dungy occupies a hugely important place in league history, and he has given opportunities to a number of today's head coaches, including most of the league's minority HCs. Caldwell, Herm Edwards, Lovie Smith, and Mike Tomlin were all assistants under Dungy, and his coaching tree will ultimately be a very important part of the man's legacy. Happy trails, Coach Dungy.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:52 AM | Comments (1)

A Dose of NBA Honesty

The English language is a funny thing. You'd think that big word catalog called "the dictionary" would give us all we would need to express ourselves. Instead, we rely on a cache of sayings that work as short cuts to tell the story. Ridiculous images like elephants in our rooms replace straight-forward talk like "we need to talk about something."

Of all of our expressions, one of my favorites is "let's be honest," as in, "let's be honest: we both know you didn't wash your hands," or "let's be honest: you aren't going to get a workout with North Carolina no matter how many times you send Roy Williams that tape of your dribbling drills in the driveway." "Let's be honest" cuts right to the chase; in spite of all of the nonsense that preceded it, it introduces the real truth. And most of all, "let's be honest" let's everyone else know they're full of it.

Well, we're nearly to the halfway point of the NBA season and it's time to stop fooling ourselves. Here's my dose of honesty at the NBA's mid-point.

Let's be honest ... You still don't want to see the Boston Celtics in the playoffs. Yes, they've looked old and lifeless since they lost to the Lakers on Christmas. But you don't think they're saving something for April, May, and June?

Remember, this team played the NBA's longest season ever last year (109 games!) and features three guys who were all drafted before LeBron James started high school. They're old, but not dead.

Let's be honest ... LeBron has the MVP mostly wrapped up, and that speaks to how worthless the award is. Oh, LeBron is certainly the player who contributes the most toward winning of any player in the league this year. But he was last year, too. And the year before. The MVP has become a silly wrapper that shrouds writers' need to create narratives for the season.

Last year, Dirk Nowitzki courageously makes another run at the season after their embarrassing upset the year before. MVP. In 2000-01, Allen Iverson keeps his nose clean and lifts the Sixers from mediocrity. MVP.

The MVP meant something until the late-1990s. The writers used to have no problem giving the same guy three in a row. Bill Russell had three in a row. Wilt Chamberlain had three in a row. Larry Bird had three in a row. Nobody other than Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan won for a six-year span. Now the award looks like the Heisman Trophy; we'll give you one for a good season, but you better blow us away the next year to have any chance.

For the MVP's first 37 years, 11 times the award was given to the same guy as the year before (a repeat). That's just less than 30 percent. In the last 15 years (beginning with Charles Barkley's bad-to-good narrative in 1992-93), the MVP has been a repeat just twice, about 13 percent of the time. Should I be shocked that Shaq, one of the five most dominating interior players in the league's history, has just one MVP? It's a meaningless award.

Let's be honest ... Speaking of LeBron, there are only two places he may be playing basketball at the end of 2010: New York or Cleveland. If it's about winning, as he says it is, he'll stay in Cleveland. If it's about personal numbers and legacy, he'll have a tough choice to make. If it's about coach Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo system or an infatuation with being Gotham's Batman on the court and Bruce Wayne in the clubs, then it'll be New York.

Apologies to New Jersey, Dallas, Miami, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles (twice), the entire continent of Europe, and whatever team on Mars has the rights to Marvin the Martian. But it was fun while it lasted, right?

Isn't that the biggest story of the summer of 2010 that nobody is talking about? With all of these teams shooting to have massive cap space at that time, the dominoes will be falling all around. For instance, won't this summer's free agent crop be cheaper to harvest for teams not in the 2010 derby? Won't there be some value there? And considering nearly half the league has gutted its roster in some way to make a run at this, will teams be scrambling to throw max contracts at the undeserving scraps once LeBron, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire come off the market? There could be some crippled franchises once this thing plays out.

Let's be honest ... "Slumdog Millionaire" would be one of the weakest Best Picture winners in Oscar history. Don't get me wrong, I really liked this movie. The story and its mechanics were very original and well executed. But the buzz propelling "Slumdog" comes off as a little too self-satisfied for me. Would the same story set in the United States with American actors be nearly as popular? I think it would be just as well received publicly, but I also think some of the critical fascination with it for awards season is pretentious cross-cultural mania. And congrats on the Golden Globe.

Let's be honest ... The All-Star Weekend Dunk Contest isn't dead, but it's in a coma. The Dunk Contest will never die, because frankly, would couldn't watch world-class athletes throw down tomahawk dunks for hours at a time? But I see three major flaws that will continue to damper the event.

First, an infusion of stars would help greatly. With very sincere apologies to Dwight Howard, he's not Kobe, LeBron, Jordan, or Dr. J. Let's say Nike, Gatorade, or whoever else might be interested in sponsorship put up a pool of $1 million or more. Do you think LeBron and Kobe might find the time to participate then? And with that much on the line, wouldn't the intensity be ramped up? Stars + cash. I'm not reinventing the wheel here.

Secondly, the bar has been pushed very high. In the event's early years, a Dee Brown could win by dunking with his forearm covering his eyes. Now? He'd have to do that with a birthday cake with lit candles on his head just to get out of the first round. Howard impressed with his Superman cape dunk last year; I say we encourage the continued use of props.

Lastly, the NBA has adjusted the rules so we won't have to see Nate Robinson attempt the same dunk 15 times before he makes it, but we can tighten the rules up some more. As it is now, contestants get two minutes and then two final attempts after that. But how about this: the two minutes still apply, but each dunker can only try each dunk twice. So that sick helicopter leap from a two story scaffold into a shark tank reverse jam you're working on? You can try it twice, but if you miss both, you can't try it again. No matter how cool a dunk is, once we've seen the lead up 10 times, it's going to be a letdown to see the final product.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

January 12, 2009

Another Nebulous Finish

Last year, there seemed to be no champion. This year, there are arguably three. Maybe four.

But since the BCS pretends it can do the impossible (choosing two teams that are the clear-cut best out of 119), we are left with the same empty feeling in the pit of the stomach at the end. Unless, of course, a photo of Tim Tebow adorns your mantle.

The BCS title game did nothing to assuage the weighty sense of unfinished business. Neither Oklahoma, with its missed opportunities and inability to stop the Gators late, nor Florida, which could have easily gone into halftime down 21-7 and struggled to establish a ground game until the end, looked particularly impressive. Even god, er, I mean Tim Tebow, didn't exactly set the world on fire, throwing two picks while completing 18-of-30 passes and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. All while the announcers continued to tout his infallibility and possibly his potential for canonization.

(SIDE RANT: I have less against Tebow than I do against FOX announcers in general. Tebow might get a free pass and completely ignored when he excessively celebrates in ways that would get most others flagged (finally drawing a garbage-time flag for taunting a Sooner late with a Gator Chomp ... stay classy.) But the announcers basically spent most of their time cramming Tebow down our throats (reading his stump speech after the Ole Miss loss in full, just seconds before showing the clip of the speech in full), while ignoring what surely were some other compelling storylines. Oh, and the announcers couldn't count downs on a GOAL TO GO SITUATION. ESPN can't take over BCS games soon enough; the FOX commentary is absolutely wretched and actually makes Brent Musburger sound like Keith Jackson. This was the FOX team that two years ago butchered Ian Johnson's wedding proposal when Chris Myers blurted it out before Johnson could get to a knee. And it is a network that doesn't cover a single college game during the regular season. But I digress.)

The point the title game illustrated, though, was that no one watching could honestly say that no other team could walk into that stadium and beat either contestant. Especially if that someone had watched USC dismantle Penn State. Or watched unbeaten Utah completely pick apart Alabama, which, by the way, played Florida very tough.

Texas, based on wins and losses, also merits at least an honorable mention. But their style points suffered under the weight of their narrow escape (by a half a yard on a fourth down during the final drive) over BCS punching bag Ohio State. A team Penn State beat and USC obliterated. It's too bad that we have to dock for style points, but that's all we really have. And if Ohio State doesn't play its safeties just eight yards off the ball at the 26 with less than :25 left and Texas needing a TD and then blow a routine tackle on a routine quick slant, the Buckeyes probably win. So no, Mack Brown, you can't expect credibility when you say, "I don't think there is a team in this country that can beat us right now." Especially when you go back on your word and don't vote for Texas at No. 1.

In any case, Texas won the same share of the national title that Utah and USC did: zero. In hindsight, USC would probably be favored over any of the other contenders at a neutral site, because as they showed Penn State, no one prepares his team for January football better than Pete Carroll. Utah, meanwhile, didn't lose in any month. Unlike Utah's win over Pitt under Urban Meyer, and unlike in Boise State's win over Oklahoma, Utah beat a one-loss, top-five, truly elite level team. And they beat them senseless.

And with wins over TCU, Oregon State, and BYU, their schedule, while not brutal, was not devoid of challenges, either.

What makes this year different from snubs of previous years is the reduced margin for error and gap between accomplishments. Last year, teams left out of the title game lost at least two games. Blame yourself if you think you can complain with two losses. But the undefeated season, with an era of increased parity and reduced scholarships, is a rare beast. Utah did it. USC had one bad half derail its hopes. But both teams in the title game also had a blemish, and after watching the Pac-10 go 5-0 in bowls (albeit not the toughest bowl slate, but not a cakewalk, either) it seems critics may have been hasty in equating it to the MAC.

The question USC fans must wonder is why a road loss to a nine-win Oregon State team is worse than a home loss to nine-win Mississippi? Or a loss to a Big 12 team, which, even among the Big Four, didn't have a single impressive bowl showing and won just once game, Texas' win over Ohio State?

So the dossier gets longer, although it doesn't mean that we get closer to a playoff. Perhaps the plus-one proposal emerges again, but it would be a long shot at best. But bringing in the top four teams rather than just the top two, and making them come from four different conferences, would have pitted Oklahoma vs. Utah and USC vs. Florida. And we would have a much better idea who should really be hoisting the crystal. Plus, the magic of bowl season would remain intact for the rest of the nation's teams.

And following last year's modeling of renaming a bunch of bowls after the fact to take out some of the ridiculous corporate names (Eagle Bank Bowl the newest entry), here is a rundown of the rest of the bowl action.

The Holy-Crap-Bowl-Season-Started-Already Bowl

Also known as the "Do we really have to play them again?" Bowl; the most interesting thing about this bowl was Riley Skinner's 11-for-11 passing day as Wake Forest beat Navy, 29-19, to avenge their embarrassing home loss to the Middies on Sept. 27.

The Johnson Bowl

For the second season in a row, an early bowl out West served as a statistically silly coming out party for a low-profile running back in a great game with a dramatic finish. After Chris Johnson helped ECU edge Boise State in Hawaii last year, another Johnson picked up where Chris left off in New Mexico. Colorado State's Gartrell Johnson broke off 285 yards on 27 carries during the Rams' 40-35 win over Fresno State. Perhaps it's only coincidence that another WAC run defense was the victim after Johnson gashed the Broncos for 223. Or perhaps not. Perhaps some more contact drills leading up to bowls?

By the way, Gartrell and Chris finished their senior seasons with their only thousand-yard season; 1,473 and 1,476 yards, respectively, and finished within about 200 yards of each other in career yards. Not to say that this new Johnson will go on to come within 60 yards of a rookie rushing title, but who knows. Although it doesn't help that he can't run a 4.2 like the Titans' speedster.

The Best Bowl You Didn't Tivo

TCU took down Boise State, 17-16, in an extremely well played bowl known to most as the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. A formerly undefeated team that beat a very good (although at the time, banged up) Oregon team, was knocked off by a Mountain West team that pounded Stanford and BYU, and came within a field goal of beating Utah, as we learned no small task. As far as pre-Christmas Bowl games go, it doesn't get much better than two top-11 teams.

Basically, the quality of the game indicated what many out West already knew; the top of the WAC and especially Mountain West is more than capable of competing with the big boys. And as we found out later, their BCS rep went and proved it. And did we mention the Mountain West plays some defense? Boise State mounted just 250 yards, and just 28 on the ground.

The Finally Bowl

Notre Dame beats a mediocre Hawaii team to end its bowl win drought. And Irish nation can't figure out which was worse; the drought itself or having to resort to beating a team like Hawaii in a bowl like the Hawaii Bowl to end it. What does it mean? It means Notre Dame had the same success this year parallel to Kentucky, Southern Miss, and Colorado State. Not exactly a royal family. Perhaps advertising for the new book "The New Gold Standard: Charlie Weis and Notre Dame's Rise to Glory" was a bit premature, ESPN.com. Seriously, you can't make this stuff up. Unless you are a delusional Domer, of course.

The Not Yet Bowl

Northwestern also has a bowl win drought ... only this one stretches to the Truman Administration. And despite a strong effort, an awful day from Used-to-Be Heisman Candidate Chase Daniel and a Mizzou defense that couldn't tackle a cripple in the first half, Mizzou still pulled it out in overtime. Ah, well, maybe next year, Northwestern ... or maybe not.

The Don't Blink Bowl

In probably the most exciting December Bowl game (and there was ample competition) Pat White finished his career in pretty much the same way he started it: by dominating. Only this time, he used his arm more than his legs as West Virginia beat North Carolina, 31-30, in Charlotte. White won his fourth bowl game by completing 26-of-32 passes for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns in a whiplash-inducing game with two ties and seven lead changes. The game was the final chapter in a legendary career, and has to leave his program's fans apprehensive about what the Mountaineers will do without him. White put West Virginia back on the football map, and at worst, was the best player to don a Mountaineer uniform since Sam Huff. He had more direct impact on that program than any single player has had on a program in recent memory.

White stole the show from Tar Heel receiver Hakeem Nicks, who caught 8 balls for 217 yards and 3 scores, including a behind-the-back catch that will be on highlight rules for, oh, about a decade.

The What If Bowl

North Carolina State was rolling right along as Russell Wilson led the Wolfpack to a 17-6 lead over Rutgers. But then he went down in the second quarter, and it set the stage for Mike Teel to lead the Scarlet Knights back in another great bowl game.

Wilson's injury didn't take away from the type of breakout season, especially in the second half of the year, that the redshirt freshman had. The dual-threat is the best quarterback in the ACC, hands down, and after the team started slow, the 'Pack was as tough as anyone in the ACC. To give an idea of how good Wilson is, after watching Ohio State's much more heralded dual-threat, Terrelle Pryor, Wilson is simply better. Wilson threw 1 interception to 17 touchdown passes this year. And his elusiveness, speed, and athleticism are on line with Pryor's. Oh, and I doubt you will see Wilson ducking out of bounds with space two yards before a first down marker in a bowl game the way Pryor did twice against Texas. NC State may be an interesting team to watch next year, and Wilson will certainly be worth the price of admission.

The Wind Bowl

The AFC Championship Game will even out-score this one, and that's saying something. Heck, hockey teams outscore this one. Oregon State 3, Pitt 0. We knew going in that Oregon State was without both Rogers brothers, weakening their receivers and running game. But even with Wind taking over as the critical element of the Sun Bowl, no one would have predicted a 3-0 game against two ranked teams.

The Bowl-Pick'em Buster Bowl

Georgia Tech ran the ball all over Georgia in the last game of the year. Then a team, LSU, that had been considerably weaker than Georgia this year with no truly impressive wins, goes to Atlanta to play the Yellow Jackets right in their backyard. And somehow, Georgia Tech couldn't find the Georgia Dome. The Jackets gave up 28 second quarter points and turned a high confidence game for many into a laugher and red mark high on their list of picks.

Basically, it came down to the fact that Paul Johnson's team is still young. It would be a mistake to say Tech was exposed as a fraud; mistakes like turnovers and returns that leave short fields against an athletic team like LSU will bury any team quick. And running offenses are not built for comebacks. The team will learn and be a tough out again next year in the ACC, where a whole class of near contenders (North Carolina, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina State) seems to be on the rise.

Oh, and you think LSU wishes it had gone to Jordan Jefferson over Jarrett Lee at quarterback a wee bit sooner?

The "Is This Really a BCS?" Bowl

Virginia Tech 20, Cincinnati 7. Great story for the Cincinnati fan base to get there. Other than that ... yawn. The Big East is officially weaker at the top than the Mountain West, especially with Pat White out of the conference.

The Can-We-Please-Play-Someone-Else Bowl

USC went to the Rose Bowl again. And for the third straight year, the Big Ten sent a sacrificial lamb.

This time Penn State was supposed to be different. This was a team that was a field goal away from a perfect season and a title game bid. Explosive on offense and stout on D, this was a more complete Big Ten team. And USC still used JoePa's crew as a punching bag. USC can blame itself for not showing up against Oregon State. Not a lot of people would pick Oklahoma over USC in the title game right now, either.

The Lee Corso Bowl

Most assumed Texas would walk on Ohio State in the big game like Florida, LSU, and USC before them. But, as the ESPN analyst says, "not so fast, my friend." Ohio State slows down the Colt McCoy show as the Longhorns' lack of an elite playmaker outside of its quarterback is truly exposed. But Colt laughs last as Ohio State's defense comes up one stop short. On the other side of the ball, Terrelle Pryor looks scared from the opening drive, can't find a receiver in a uniform matching his own to save his life, and Ohio State's offense becomes painfully predictable as Todd Boeckman rotates in and out of the game. Especially after Beanie Wells goes down with an injury.

To think, if Oregon State beats Oregon in their final game, they go to the Rose Bowl and USC likely meets Texas in the Fiesta Bowl. Think USC has offensive identity issues against the Longhorns the way Ohio State did?

The Validation Bowl

Undefeated Utah's appearance in the Sugar Bowl didn't seem much different to most fans than Hawaii's last year. But anyone that followed Utah this year knew that Utah, unlike Hawaii, plays defense. And well. The Mountain West Conference is simply, at the top at least, a very solid conference. Utah, BYU, and TCU would all survive and even be very competitive in pretty much any conference more years than not. The supposed speed and size difference sure wasn't very apparent in New Orleans.

But all that said, no non-BCS team had beaten an elite team. And Utah simply outclassed a one-loss team from what is generally considered the toughest, fastest most athletic conference in the country. Go figure that two programs largely built up by Urban Meyer were the only two to beat 'Bama. He must be popular in Tuscaloosa.

It turns out that the gap between the conferences is not as wide as was initially believed. The SEC had a top team crushed by a Mountain West team, and had a team beat down by a middle-class Big Ten team (Iowa over South Carolina). And it should have lost to a C-USA team, except that East Carolina forgot to come out of the locker room after halftime against Kentucky.

The Is-This-Really-the-Title-Game Game

While the SEC had its weak moments in bowls, at least three of its top four teams won. The Big 12 watched Oregon rounded up the Cowboys of Oklahoma State, Texas nearly choke on a Buckeye, Texas Tech couldn't put down the Ole Miss Rebels in a bowl played in its home state, and of course Oklahoma couldn't get its record-setting offense to close drives against Florida.

So Florida remains standing, Tebow has another title, and college football fans wonder what if. As for the wars between the conferences, all had solid victories, all had at least one loss (save the much maligned Pac-10...). And since we can't definitively say which conference is better than the other, we sure can't tell which one-loss conference champ with a BCS bowl win was truly better. And again, no one will likely do much about it.

And so the cycle continues.

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 11:59 AM | Comments (4)

In the Rotation: NBA Week 11

As cliché as it is to admit it: injuries are a part of the game. Like it or not, injuries can, and usually do, have a big impact on the NBA regular season.

The 2008-09 season is no exception.

After getting off to a somewhat quiet start to the season around the league, the injury bug has bitten and bitten hard recently.

Now, with the teams in the playoff races in each conference still very bunched together, losing a star player for a long period of time could be very costly when jockeying for playoff position, or fighting for a playoff spot altogether.

This week's Starting Five consists of players that aren't starting at all. It's a look around the league at some of the most recent injuries in the NBA and the impact that each one might have on the 2009 NBA playoffs.

Starting Five

1. Carlos Boozer, Utah Jazz

Carlos Boozer's knee injury is far from recent (he hasn't played since November 19th), but the surgery on said knee is, so we'll start with him.

Boozer reportedly underwent surgery this week to remove loose pieces of cartilage from his left knee. He is expected to miss at least four weeks, at which time he will be re-evaluated.

Call it premature if you'd like, but I'm going to go ahead and predict that Carlos Boozer will never play another game for the Utah Jazz.

The return date for Boozer had already been pushed back several times before this biggest and most recent setback, so he's about as likely to make a best-case-scenario return as he is to turn down the highest bidder this summer.

And with Paul Millsap performing at an extremely high level in Boozer's absence, the Jazz will be in no hurry to bring Boozer back and cut Millsap's minutes, especially if they view Millsap as the power forward of the future.

Still, if the Jazz want to have any chance at competing for the Western Conference crown, they are going to need Carlos Boozer to play and play at 100%. Even with Millsap filling in great, averaging 18 points and 11.5 rebounds in his 21 starts, the Jazz are just 22-15, good for eighth best out West, percentage points ahead of Dallas for the final playoff spot.

The Jazz have found a reliable replacement if need be, but they cannot replace the depth Boozer brings to their frontcourt, and it may ultimately lead to their downfall.

2. Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo missed the last two games for the Nuggets this week after breaking a bone in his right hand during the Nuggets' 135-115 victory over the Pacers on Monday night. The injury does not require surgery, but is expected to keep Anthony out of the lineup for a total of three to four weeks.

The injury couldn't have come at a worse time for the Nuggets, who are going through hands down the toughest part of their schedule.

If Anthony were to miss exactly a month, he would miss the next 13 games. The Nuggets play teams with a winning record in nine of those 13 games.

The Nuggets hold a two-game lead over Portland in the Northwest division, but have just a two and a half game cushion on Dallas, who currently sits in ninth place in the West.

The Nuggets and their slim lead cannot afford to drop many games with Carmelo out of the lineup because the schedule isn't any kinder once he comes back. Coinciding with Anthony's return: the start of an eight-game road trip for Denver, their longest of the season.

3. Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest

I admit, by now writing about an injured T-Mac in January is hardly groundbreaking stuff. But it wouldn't be an injury-related Starting Five without Houston Rockets.

I was wrong about two things in what I wrote about the Rockets in various parts of my season preview: they won't win 58 games; they won't get 50 games with Yao, T-Mac, and Artest together.

As we get close to the halfway point of the season, the Rockets find themselves on pace to win exactly 50 games, and through 39 team games, the Rockets' Big Three have played together just 22 times, leaving them on pace to play 46 games together.

Both Artest and McGrady said over the weekend that shutting it down for a few weeks is now a real possibility, and the immediate future for the Houston Rockets looks pretty bleak.

With visits from the Lakers, Heat, Nuggets, and Jazz on the horizon this week, followed up by a dangerous trip out east that consists of a stop at Conseco to visit the giant-killing Indiana Pacers, the suddenly red-hot Detroit Pistons, and ending with a back-to-back against the run-and-gun Knicks, the Rockets find themselves in the same couldn't-have-picked-a-worse-time-to-get-hurt boat as the Nuggets.

Throw in the fact that Yao hasn't has his annual injury yet and the Rockets sure look to me like more of a team that's one game in the standings away from being out of the playoffs than a team that's one game away from home court advantage in the first round.

It's all in the eye of the beholder I guess, but I'll never be a glass half-full guy when it comes to the always disappointing Rockets.

4. Devin Harris and Yi Jianlian, New Jersey Nets

While the injury setbacks to the Jazz, Nuggets, and Rockets may affect their seeding come playoff time out West, the loss of Harris and Yi for the Nets might cost them a chance at making the playoffs entirely.

The Nets' surprising 18-19 start has them positioned in the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference standings right now, but trying to replace 33% of the team's scoring over the next few weeks could be a daunting task, one that an already below .500 team usually doesn't overcome.

While Harris has only missed the last two games and is listed as day-to-day with a hamstring injury, Yi is expected to miss three to four weeks with a broken hand.

Though hovering near .500 is always good enough to keep a team in playoff contention in the east, a team that has to overachieve just to get to that point certainly cannot afford to lose two starters at the same time.

It's surprising to say the least that the Nets are even in this position this late in the season, but it'd be even more surprising if they can continue to keep pace with the other low-level playoff teams in the East if they cannot get healthy in a hurry.

5. Elton Brand, Philadelphia 76ers

The loss of Brand has had an interesting impact on the 76ers. Brand hasn't played since December 17th, and is still about three weeks away from rejoining the lineup, but the Sixers are actually playing much better with Brand out.

Philly is 10-13 in the 23 games that Brand has played this season and 7-7 in the 14 when he doesn't play.

And, after dropping, four of their first five games after Brand's shoulder injury, the Sixers are currently on a four-game winning streak, their longest of the season.

The Sixers may have finally hit their stride and they've pulled into a tie for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. The big question in Philly is whether or not they'll be able to build on their recent success once Brand returns, or will it be back to the drawing board as they find a way to win with their new $82 million investment on the floor.

In the Rotation

Cleveland Cavaliers

You could easily have added Zydrunas Ilgauskas to the list of major injuries around the league (out up to a month with a chipped bone in his ankle), but as long as the Cavs have a healthy LeBron James, nothing can derail this team.

King James showed once again this week why he has taken the title of "Best Player in the World" from Kobe Bryant this season with his downright dominant performance Friday night against the Celtics.

As hard as it is to believe, LeBron's 38 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, and 3 blocks in the game doesn't even begin to tell the story of how dominant he was. It wasn't just the gaudy numbers, it was how he amassed them that sent a message to not only the Boston Celtics, but the entire league.

The win temporarily gave Cleveland the best record in the NBA, but the Cavs since have been passed by the Lakers who moved percentage points ahead of them with their win on Sunday.

Nonetheless, the Cavs' dominant victory put them 19-0 at home (in the Q!) and in the driver seat for home court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. A scary combination for anyone with any real NBA title aspirations.

Out of the Rotation

Atlanta Hawks

The Mike Woodson era is rapidly coming to an end in Atlanta.

The Hawks had a chance to cement themselves as an up-and-coming contender in the Eastern Conference this week with a home-and-home series against the first place Orlando Magic.

Instead, the Hawks took a giant step backwards.

Their disaster of a week started Wednesday with a 106-102 loss at home to the Magic, but the final score isn't a true indication of how badly they were beaten. The Magic led by 16 at halftime, pushed it to as high as 21, and the lead was as big as 19 in the fourth quarter. A too-little-too-late charge for the Hawks was not enough to erase the fact they were blown out in the first three quarters.

Then came the debacle on Friday night, in which the Hawks trailed by as much as 50 at one point in Orlando before the Magic mercifully called off the dogs and coasted to a 121-87 victory.

As if being embarrassed twice by the same team wasn't destructive enough for the Hawks, they followed it up with a very unimpressive 15-point loss at home to the 76ers on Sunday.

With four of their next five games on the road (the Hawks are 7-10 away from home this season), one more blowout loss and the Hawks will, and probably rightfully so, be returning home with someone else as their head coach.

Inactive List

Portland Trail Blazers Team President Larry Miller

Here is the story: Portland was able to get out of the remaining two years and $18 million dollars left on Darius Miles' contract under the condition that Miles was "disabled" (the league's term, not mine) and unable to ever play again. If Miles plays 10 games this season, he will be taken off the NBA's "disabled list" and his contract will count against the Blazers salary cap next season and push them over the luxury tax threshold this season.

Miles played six preseason games with the Celtics and was released. He signed with the Grizzlies, played in two games this week, and was released. He was then re-signed by the Grizzlies to a 10-day contract.

If Miles plays in just two more games this season, it will raise his total to 10, meaning his contract becomes guaranteed and the Blazers will take a significant financial hit.

The possibility of a significant financial hit was too much to bear for trail Blazers President Larry Miller, and he sent a threatening e-mail to each team this week warning of a possible lawsuit if a team signs Miles.

The full text of the e-mail reads:

"Team Presidents and General Managers,

"The Portland Trail Blazers are aware that certain teams may be contemplating signing Darius Miles to a contract for the purpose of adversely impacting the Portland Trail Blazers Salary Cap and tax positions. Such conduct from a team would violate its fiduciary duty as an NBA joint venturer. In addition, persons or entities involved in such conduct may be individually liable to the Portland Trail Blazers for tortuously interfering with the Portland Trail Blazers' contract rights and perspective economic opportunities.

"Please be aware that if a team engages in such conduct, the Portland Trail Blazers will take all necessary steps to safeguard its rights, including, without limitation, litigation."

Before we get into how ridiculous it is to try and stop a team from trying to sign an apparently healthy and capable NBA veteran, let's take a look back at some of the ridiculous transactions that have occurred in the past year around the NBA:

• The Lakers traded then-Philadelphia 76ers assistant coach Aaron McKie to Memphis as a part of the Paul Gasol deal.
• The Mavericks traded Keith Van Horn, who hadn't played in over 20 months, but whose rights were still owned by the Mavericks, to New Jersey as part of the Jason Kidd deal. Van Horn had as much of a chance of playing for the Nets as you or I had.
• The Nuggets gave Marcus Camby away to the Clippers in an egregious salary dump for the option to swap second-round picks.
• The Knicks agreed to take on Cuttino Mobely from the Clippers in the Zach Randolph deal, despite the fact that they knew he was going to have to retire due to a potentially fatal heart condition.

All of those morally questionable transactions were just fine with the Blazers, but how dare an NBA team give a one-time promising NBA prospect a second chance after a devastating knee injury?

Instead of threatening to sue, Larry Miller should have just accepted the fact that he and his front office screwed up big time by giving Miles a ridiculous six-year, $48 million contract in the first place.

Instead, Miller managed to come off as a selfish and heartless poor sport and will get his comeuppance later this week when Miles plays his 10th game and the Blazers, like just about every other team in the league, will be stuck with a terrible contract on their books.

Look on the bright side, Larry: there's always the possibility that you could trade Miles for an assistant coach sometime down the road.

Be sure to check back at Sports Central every Monday to see who cracks Scott Shepherd's rotation as he breaks down what is going on around the NBA.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:24 AM | Comments (0)

January 9, 2009

The Most Influential Man in NFL History

"On any given Sunday, any team can beat any other team." — Bert Bell

Very few sayings are as firmly embedded in the American psyche as the aforementioned quote by Bert Bell. "On any given Sunday" are the four simple words that give hope to fans as their team stares down the barrel of defeat. Even Detroit Lions fans have managed to find solace in these words. Nevertheless, it would be fair to say that this inspirational adage would mean nothing if football wasn't such a powerful force in America today.

Throughout his life, Bell gave pretty much all of his time to the game that he loved. He began his career in football as the starting quarterback for the University of Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, his time there was cut short as he was spent some time in France during the First World War. Upon his return home, he once again took up a post at the Quakers. This time however, he wouldn't be stepping onto the field as he served as the team's backfield coach.

Accompanied with three friends from college, Bell became a co-founder/co-owner of the Philadelphia Eagles in 1933. After eight years in this post, he moved on, selling his share in the Eagles. However, he still had a thirst to be involved the game. Therefore he became a co-owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers and also coached the team for a few seemingly unsuccessful years in the 1940s.

In 1935, Bell is credited with creating one of the most important things to ever be introduced into sports, let alone football. In an attempt to make the entire league stronger, Bell decided to establish the NFL draft, something that remains to this day. Remarkably, not only does it remain, it is one of the main reasons for parity in the game.

In January 1946, Bell would bestowed with a great honor as he was selected to be the next NFL Commissioner. No sooner had he taken up the post, he was faced with a crisis. The 1946 NFL Championship Game between the Chicago Bears and the New York Giants had become marred with controversy. A gambling scandal was rife in the league and the new commissioner simply had to act.

In a bold response to the gambling allegations, Bell managed to negotiate a U.S. law change. Bell introduced a law in nearly every state that made it a crime for an athlete not to report a bribe of any description.

Having already introduced the NFL draft, which helps to maintain an equal balance in the league, he also created the revenue-sharing system. Like many of Bell's creations, it remains near enough unchanged to this day. As a result, small-market teams are able to make larger profits, thus allowing them to be more competitive.

Clearly, fairness and equality was something that Bell strived for during his tenure at the NFL. Before he took charge of the league, the schedules that teams faced were extremely varied in terms of difficulty, with many better teams negotiating to play weaker teams in order to have a better chance of victory. Bell took time out of his own schedule every year to sit down at his dining table and draw up the entire schedule for the coming year.

By the start of the 1950s, he was faced with yet another challenge. This time, however, it would come in the form of a small box. After negotiating the merger between the NFL and All-American Football Conference (AAFC), football had grown substantially in popularity. Television was beginning to take its hold on the game and Bell became worried that with more games on the television, fans may stay at home to watch the game instead of attending the stadium.

In the face of this dilemma, a man never afraid to be unpopular or make tough decisions decided to enforce a blackout on all home games within 75 miles of the home team's stadium. Consequently, many fans of the team would have to purchase a ticket and watch the game live.

These are just some of the many great achievements of the NFL's second commissioner. However, many of you may be wondering why I have taken the time note down some of pivotal moments in Bell's life. Well, I feel as though he is a key figure in the history of football, with much of what he introduced still around today. Nevertheless, the reason why I went to all of this trouble is that 2009 is the 50th anniversary of his death.

On October 11th, 1959, Bell succumbed to a heart attack. Perhaps, it was rather fitting that he died attending an NFL game. It is definitely fitting that the game he was at was a contest between the two teams he held so close to his heart, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, during this 50th anniversary year I believe that we should all spare a thought for one of the greatest men in the game's history. And who knows, maybe the Eagles and Steelers will make it the Super Bowl. If they do, then I am sure Bell will be scrambling to find a seat somewhere.

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 11:54 AM | Comments (0)

MLB Network Rolls Out With Bait and Switch

On January 1, 2009, Major League Baseball launched its long-awaited Major League Baseball Network (MLBN) on major cable broadcast providers throughout U.S. television markets.

Hailed by MLB itself as a boon to its continued growth, the MLBN hopes to garner $150–$200 million in additional revenue in just its first year of distribution.

And to that end, the MLBN starts right off the bat with a built-in cushion of an instant 50 million television household subscribers, or about one third of the cable market share. The MLBN sets itself apart from the oft-cited NFL Network, now in place in 42 million television households after four years of sometimes ugly legal wrangling and ongoing negotiations with cable broadcasters. And NBA TV, with 15 million subscribers to date, has seen primarily slow growth.

But the reason that the MLBN has been able to enjoy a compatible arrangement with cable broadcasters is that it gave up a share of its equity in order to reach that goal. The MLBN is a majority 67% stakeholder, while DirecTV has a 16.5% interest and Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and Cox Communications collectively own a 16.5% share.

The logic in sharing its equity according to MLB CEO and President Bob DuPuy is that, "It would take an awfully long time to grow to the value that being in 50 million homes is immediately going to provide. It makes sense from an economic standpoint and plus, these companies are partners that will help grow the game, and at the end of the day, that's to everybody's benefit, as well." But is it to the fans' benefit?

Initially attracting the eyeballs of potential viewers with access to the MLBN in the midst of winter, with the NFL playoffs in full throttle and with NCAA basketball heating up, will be its first challenge.

Until the MLB regular season gets underway, there will be no live game coverage on the MLBN, and the Hot Stove season thus far has been less than exciting. Moreover, ESPN has had a stranglehold over MLB coverage the past two decades. And the FOX Network, which airs live games and, more recently, MLB Advanced Media coverage, which provides live TV coverage over the Internet, will make the MLBN market penetration no easy task.

The template presently in place for the MLBN until the regular season gets underway will be talking heads and historic footage. The initial night featured recently recovered footage of Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series. But the network will carry only 26 regular games for the entire 162-game season, given its broadcast contract commitments already in place.

But most importantly for the average baseball fan from a consumer's standpoint is the way in which the MLBN's advance marketing was portrayed. MLB repeatedly stated that it would be available to all expanded basic cable subscribers. But it depends upon how they defined the word "basic." Clearly, it was not defined before January 1st.

MLB Commissioner Bud Selig appeared on camera on the MLBN just prior to its initial 6:00 PM EST broadcast on January 1st. And he stated at that time that, "As has been widely reported, the MLB Network is not carried as a specialized sports tier, but does require customers to subscribe to digital basic cable or the equivalent."

Therefore, many customers with expanded basic cable who do not require set-top boxes currently and who do not subscribe to a far more expensive digital tier were less than enthused when they tried to tune to the MLBN on New Year's Day.

Meanwhile, the MLBN contentedly has made it publicly known that it is not charging cable providers the 85 cents per subscriber that the NFL Network demanded, as it is only charging broadcasters 25 cents per subscriber. However, in order for a fan to get the MLBN, it requires a new expensive digital tier package and rental of a set-top box, which costs an additional $7.00-$10.00 per month.

When MLB negotiated with TBS to air the entirety of all first-round MLB 2008 playoff series, it was the first time in MLB and television broadcasting history that postseason coverage was not available on over-the-air TV for fans. And it was just a harbinger of things to come.

Soon, over-the-air TV will no longer be accessible simply by turning on a set without a converter box accompanied by a newfangled co-axial roof antenna, come February 17, 2009. But, cable broadcaster Comcast is already taking it a step further. It had originally required, with no fair warning to its analog customers or those known as the real expanded basic cable customers, that they would be losing all television access unless they rented a digital set-top box by December 31, 2008. Fortunately, the FCC interceded and Comcast agreed to delay that deadline until March 1, 2009.

The cable industry is using the Digital Television Transition as a convenient excuse to either extort or confuse customers into paying for more expensive services in an economy which is seeing its most severe meltdown in 70 years. However, MLB is enjoying the ride.

It is not necessarily MLB's fault for not allowing the MLBN to air for analog basic expanded cable customers. However, they could have been less deceptive in their advertising and maybe even held back its launch to such time when they could offer a more full blown schedule. After all, true baseball fanatics may jeopardize their finances to upgrade their service at this time only to be disappointed by a network which is in its infancy and may be filled with a lot of fluff and advertising.

Another incidental to note in the business of cable broadcasting is that in addition to the current nearly 20 million subscribers to analog basic expanded cable, there are approximately an additional 80 million subscribers that have analog basic expanded cable in other rooms of the house, in addition to their digital packages, say in the living room.

The conclusion, therefore, is that a good ploy would have been for the MLBN to initially roll out on basic expanded cable as promised, and then ramp it up to a digital tier as either the season got going or in 2010 when more viewers would have had a better chance of making a more intelligent decision on what type of television service is indeed best for them. Unfortunately, MLB is simply piling on and taking advantage of the situation.

And although MLB always makes sure to say it acts in the best interest of its fans, most of us know differently.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:10 AM | Comments (1)

January 8, 2009

NFL Weekly Predictions: Divisional Round

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore @ Tennessee (-3)

After rolling over the Dolphins, 27-9, the Ravens head to Nashville to face their old AFC Central rival Tennessee, who beat the Ravens in Baltimore 13-10 in Week 5. Against the No. 3-seeded Dolphins, Baltimore forced five Chad Pennington turnovers, including two Ed Reed interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown that gave the Ravens a lead they never relinquished.

"No one ever said Pennington doesn't throw a catchable ball," says Reed, who, were he talking to a Hispanic gangster, would say he was from 'the U, esse.' "We knew coming in that Pennington 'telegraphed' his passes, and the speed of his actual delivery is reminiscent of the United States Postal Service. Suffice it to say Pennington won't beat you with his velocity, and his 4 interceptions last Sunday led Tony Sparano to comment that Chad was 'killing him softly.'"

"As for the Titans, we expect nothing less than a physical, knock-down drag-out, test of wills, and if the scoring of points is a byproduct of that, then great. This won't be a game for the squeamish, so I suggest that Titans' fans hide the women and children, and Vince Young. There will be blood, and I am fairly positive that I will drink someone's milkshake."

"Baltimore is the home of defensive brutality, as well as iconic author Edgar Allan Poe and avant-garde filmmaker John Waters. I'll put our defense up against any other, and I'll put the poetry of my man Edgar Allan up against that of anything the city of Nashville has to offer, and that includes the 'poetry' of a countrified, semi-literate 'artist' like Toby Keith, although you have to hand it to the guy for naming an album Shock'n Y'all. Sunday's game will be one of 'shock and awe,' and it won't be for the faint of heart, or those with tell-tale hearts. We're going to win this game, although I give the Titans a 'slim-as-John-Waters-pencil-thin-mustache' shot at winning."

"That so, Raven?" says Jeff Fisher. "No one has ever accused the Ravens of being short on confidence. I'm not one to get into a back-and-forth, war of words with the opposition, so I'll respond to Reed in my typical matter-of-fact and philosophical manner with these time-tested words of wisdom: 'Don't let your mouth write a check your ass can't cash.'

Reed's right that this will be a physical, hard-hitting game. No kidding, Ed. What do you think people expect when the Ravens and Titans meet? Butterfly kisses? Your analysis is as in-depth as the rudimentary and obvious analysis of former Raven Shannon Sharpe."

"Cheap shots, spears, and helmet-to-helmet hits aside, the game will eventually come down to the play of the quarterbacks. I give our man Kerry Collins an edge, because he's experienced, he's playoff-tested, and he knows he's the last thing standing between Vince Young and playing time. Joe Flacco is a rookie, and he completes more passes to players on the sidelines than he does on the field."

Turnover margin will be a crucial statistic in a game that will be characterized by the type of hits that separate ball from ball-carrier, and unites players with stretchers. +2 won't win you a golf tournament, not even under a modified Stableford scoring system, but it will win the Ravens/Titans clash. I see Baltimore coach Jim Harbaugh gambling a little more, and allowing Flacco to take a few chances downfield. Tight ends will probably play a big role in the outcome, and I give Todd Heap an edge over Alge Crumpler. Ravens win, 16-13.

Arizona @ Carolina (-9½)

In a rematch of Week 8's 27-23 Carolina win, the Cardinals return to Charlotte seeking revenge and a trip to the NFC Championship Game. In Week 8's loss, Arizona rushed for only 50 yards, while Kurt Warner passed for 381 yards, and the Cards were eventually done in by Carolina's balanced offensive attack. In last week's win over Atlanta, Arizona made a concerted effort to establish a running game, and succeeded, boosted by 73 yards on the ground by Edgerrin James. With wide receiver Anquan Boldin possibly limited with a hamstring injury, James' role takes on an even greater importance to the Arizona cause.

"I'm not sure what's more important for us," says James. "A legitimate running game, or simply the threat of one. In any case, I doubt either scares anyone. But I, for one, am glad to see us running the ball. Heck, this is the first time since I came to Arizona that I'm not wishing I was a Colt. I think I might stay here in Arizona; the last time I left a team, that team won the Super Bowl."

"Sure, our running game may be a popular topic of discussion, but a more pressing matter is our performance on the East Coast this year, where we were 0-5. We're changing up our routine to break that cold spell. Instead of flying east, we're going to fly west. Sure it may add 22 hours to our flight, but we'll be confident, albeit jet-lagged, knowing that we're not headed east towards certain doom."

In contrast to Arizona's questionable running game, the Panthers sport one of the league's most powerful ground attacks, featuring the duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who combined for 28 rushing touchdowns and 2 two fumbles this season. Carolina will commit to the run. The question is, how intently will the Cardinals commit to stopping the run?

"I think our commitment to the run," says John Fox, "has only been surpassed by our lack of commitment to creating an original nickname for our dynamic duo. As you know, DeAngelo and Jonathan are known as 'Smash and Dash,' a nickname first used to describe the Titans' LenDale White and Chris Johnson. As far as I'm concerned, White and Johnson can have the nickname. Who wants a nickname that also describes an extreme form of shoplifting?"

"Anyway, I've got several suggestions to describe the brutish style of Stewart and the elusiveness of Williams. How about 'Beef Jerky?' Or 'Bruise Cruise?' No good? How about this one? 'The Two Guys Who Make Jake Delhomme Throw Less?' Or, you could throw Steve Smith into the mix and call the trio 'Punch and Judi-cious Running.' You know, Steve is a lot like Larry Fitzgerald in that he can go up and get any ball, no matter who's around. Steve doesn't mind being Jake's 'go-to guy,' but don't call it a 'Bro-mance,' lest you get punched in the face."

The Cardinals almost won Week 8's game, despite the lack of a running game. A late interception on a tipped ball deep in Carolina territory probably cost Arizona the win. Carolina's secondary has been their weakness all year, and if Kurt Warner exploited it then, there's no reason he can't do it again. Do the Cards really need their running backs? Yeah, to pass block, and serve as an emergency outlet should nothing develop downfield.

But Carolina has the firepower to win a shootout if necessary. With Arizona intent on stopping the run, which they must do to win, Smith is likely to see a lot of one-on-one matchups, which could result in the deep ball, or some quick throws in the flat that Smith could easily turn into big gains. To state the obvious, the Cardinals can't stop the run and the pass. Carolina gets the edge because of their three big weapons, while one of Arizona's big weapons, the gimpy Boldin, may be the Card "on the table."

Carolina strikes quickly on their first possession, as Delhomme uses play-action, pump fakes to Smith on a slant route, then finds Muhsin Muhammad deep for a touchdown, or at least to the one-yard line, where Williams can easily punch it in. Warner and the Cardinals hang tough until the end. Carolina wins, 29-23, improving their home record to 9-0 this year, which leads the chamber of commerce to amend the city of Charlotte's nickname from the "Queen City" to the "Queen, Killer Queen City."

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-4½)

With a 26-14 win in Minnesota, the Eagles earned another date with NFC East foe New York, this time with a berth in the NFC Championship Game on the line. The two teams split in the regular season, with the Eagles winning the latest contest, a 20-14 win in Giants Stadium on December 7th.

"Let's just hope our chance at 'another date' ends more successfully than Charles Barkley's attempt at 'another date,'" says Donovan McNabb. "Was Barkley driving a Hummer, or was he driving to a Hummer? It looks like Sir Charles' DUI arrest interrupted his plan to be 'knighted.' I hear Barkley refused a Breathalyzer test. Apparently, no one blew that night."

"Anyway, enough about the 'Round Mound of Poon Hound.' Let's talk about the rubber match between the Eagles and Giants. As you know, we're the underdogs in this one, and rightly so. But that's on paper. On the field, this one's a coin toss. Believe me, I've been present for my share of coin tosses, as well as cookie tosses. And what I've found so intriguing about coin tosses is that they can't end in a tie. Imagine that."

"But we've got a chance to knock off Eli Manning and the No. 1-seeded Giants, thereby insuring a Manning-less Super Bowl for the first time in three years. Once we present Eli with a premature exit from the playoffs, he can join Peyton to headline the Double 'Stiff' Racing League. Not that I wouldn't want to be in their place. What sane man wouldn't want to play 'Oreo' with the Williams sisters?"

The Giants are well-rested and look fully capable of defending their Super Bowl title of last year. Despite the loss earlier this year of Plaxico Burress, their most dynamic offensive threat, New York has adjusted and relied more on their running game. With windy conditions always a possibility in Giants Stadium, the team best able to run the ball will likely emerge victorious.

"Hey, Brett Favre's not the only thing that 'blows' in Giants Stadium," says Tom Coughlin. "The weather will certainly play a factor, which will make our running attack a key component to victory. Our running back trio of 'Earth, Wind, and Fire' should be a full strength. And, as people like Plaxico are well aware, you can never have too many weapons."

"We know the Eagles will come ready to play. Andy Reid-coached teams are always prepared. And that Philly defense is looking rough, just like Reid's beard. I've heard of playoff beards in hockey, but never by a football coach. By the time the Eagles' flight lands in Philly after their loss, Reid should be 'shaved and ready,' which, incidentally, is also the title of the featured in-flight movie."

With the Giants' defense keying on Brian Westbrook, the Eagles may well look to an unlikely source for their rushing yards. No, not Vincent Papale. I'm talking about McNabb. A few successful scrambles, planned or not, would open up the defense for some bigger plays. As Westbrook proved against the Vikings, all it takes is one. Defensively, the Eagles have to blitz, against the run and pass, and hope they can create a turnover or two. Whether they find success early or not, the Giants will stick with the run, with the intention of wearing down the Philadelphia defense. Eagles win, 22-19.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-6)

To reach its second consecutive AFC Championship Game, the Chargers will have to overcome the home-standing Steelers, who beat San Diego 11-10 when the teams met earlier this season in Week 11. The Chargers earned the rematch by virtue of their 23-17 overtime win over the visiting Colts last week, which avenged a regular season loss to the Colts. Darren Sproles, who took over for an ailing LaDainian Tomlinson at running back, rushed for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns, and amassed 328 all-purpose yards.

"Sproles is a handful," says Mike Tomlin. "He's certainly a change of pace from Tomlinson. There was a time when the name 'LaDainian Tomlinson' was synonymous with 'touchdowns.' Times have changed, though. Now, when L.T. is 'touched,' he goes 'down.' Lately, we've seen more of L.T. in Chunky Soup commercials than in the playoffs."

Tomlinson's strained groin may keep him out of Sunday's game. However, if the injury responds well to treatment, Tomlinson could play, although in a limited capacity, or, as it's officially known on the injury report, "L.T.D."

As the regular season total defense leader, and with a bye week of rest, the Pittsburgh defense heads into the playoffs confident, displaying the swagger of a unit capable of shutting down any offense. Offensively, however, the Pittsburgh swagger has been downgraded a bit to a "stagger," with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger still recovering from the effects of a concussion sustained in the Steelers' Week 17 win against Cleveland. Roethlisberger didn't practice last week, but intends to play Sunday.

"It's no secret that we have to get into Roethlisberger's head," says Norv Turner. "Or at least on to his head. I've heard that Big Ben reportedly was held out of Monday's practice when team doctors realized that, instead of eye black, he had applied mascara to his eyes. To compound the issue, he was also caught listening to Fall Out Boy on his iPod. I'm not sure of the validity of that report, but the fact of the matter is a woozy Roethlisberger's quarterbacking is about as erratic as Vincent Jackson's driving. If those two guys ever met on the highway, the carnage would be large, as would the moving violations and revoked licenses."

You're exactly right. Those two are highway menaces. Do you what they'd call an accident between No. 7 and No. 83? "Number crunching."

Who or what will make the defining impact in Sunday's clash? Roethlisberger? A Roethlisberger turnover? Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison? Philip Rivers? Darren Sproles? Mike Tomlin? An errant Tomlin decision to go for a two-point conversion? A questionable defensive holding call, a call that would be perfectly okay if called in a meaningless pre-season game, but not in a playoff game, and especially not in the most crucial moment of an overtime playoff game? San Diego punter Mike Scifres? Pittsburgh kicker Jeff Reed? I say Troy Polamalu. He was robbed of a touchdown in the Steelers' regular season win over the Chargers, and he's probably sick of all the attention Ed Reed is getting. Plus, not only is Polamalu "hairy," he's also been known to "harry."

The Colts were able to get adequate pressure on Rivers, often without committing more than four to the cause. The Steelers will apply more pressure, and Rivers, if he's not sacked, will be forced into short completions that the Pittsburgh linebackers will quickly stop for little gain. Polamalu will snatch a Rivers' turnover in the third quarter and return it for a score. Pittsburgh wins, 19-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:58 AM | Comments (4)

Manny Being Manny Cost Manny Millions

Back when the Red Sox were forced to trade Manny Ramirez, one of the things that really bugged me was the fact that he was likely to get a ridiculous contract after the season was over.

Manny refused to play in his final days in Boston. He faked an injury (I think we can all agree that the migrating knee injury wasn't real). He wanted to be put on the DL. The Red Sox had to threaten him with a suspension just to get him on the field.

In a game against the Yankees.

Manny wanted out of Boston. He wanted to become a free agent at the end of the season. He saw this as his last chance at a huge payday.

His new agent, Scott Boras, told him that he was worth four-year, $100 million on the open market. Teams would be lining up to sign him.

All he had to do was produce once he got out of Boston.

So Manny forced his way out of Boston. Then he produced. Not just good numbers, but super-human numbers.

And the scene was set.

Manny was going to get himself the contract he wanted. Once again, a spoiled athlete was going to screw over a group of fans that unconditionally loved him and make out like a bandit.

Have to feed the family and all. It's a business.

Yadda, yadda, yadda.

The absence of Manny Ramirez cost the Red Sox a chance to repeat as World Series champions. Manny's selfish temper tantrum forced the Red Sox to trade him for a nice player (Jason Bay), but a guy who was in no way Manny Ramirez.

The Red Sox had trouble scoring runs this postseason. A couple of runs here, an extra inning home run there, and the Sox would have been in the World Series.

Manny has spent his entire career driving in those runs and hitting those home runs.

Manny screwed over his friends, his teammates, and his fans when he bailed on the Red Sox last summer.

Which is why it was so upsetting that he was going to get another insane contract. Don't baseball owners and GMs watch TV? Didn't they see what he did in Boston? Why would they give him a four-year deal when they know he'll likely bail in year three, no matter what the cost?

But something strange happened. Nobody wants Manny Ramirez. Or, at least, nobody wants him for the money he thinks he should be getting.

I apparently underestimated the GMs and owners involved.

The market for Manny has been cool, to say the least. The only real known offer on the table is a two-year deal from the Dodgers.

The Yankees? Not interested.

The Giants? Can't afford him.

The Mets? Thus far, not interested.

The Angels? Not interested.

The Red Sox? Ha!

Manny's big market options have been dwindling since the free agent season began. It's gotten so bad, he's discussed retirement.

He calls it unfair. I call it justice.

Under normal circumstances, someone with Manny's resume would have been the most sought-after free agent on the market. But when Manny screwed over the Red Sox, he unwittingly screwed over himself, as well.

It's not often in the world of professional sports where a greedy, scumbag player gets what's coming to him. This was one of those times.

Of course, the Yankees will probably eventually give him a three-year deal for like $60 million, since they're buying everyone this offseason. But even that deal will be half of what Manny bragged about getting earlier this year.

Greed and arrogance cost Manny Ramirez around $60 million dollars this offseason.

But hey, that's just Manny being Manny.

Sean Crowe is the New England Patriots Examiner at Examiner.com. He writes a column every other Thursday for Sports Central. You can email him at [email protected].

Posted by Sean Crowe at 11:38 AM | Comments (3)

January 7, 2009

Is Perfection Still Attainable?

In all of modern day sports, there are only a few sports in which there is a possibility of a team going undefeated. We accept the fact that there will never be a baseball team good enough to win all 162 games. We accept the fact that there will never be an NBA or NHL team that wins all 82 games. We know that there is a possibility for this to happen in the NFL. Only last season we saw the New England Patriots make a run at such an improvability, only to be thwarted by the New York Football Giants in Super Bowl XLII. While it hasn't happened since the expansion to a 16-game regular season schedule, it is not seen as an unattainable feat.

While it hasn't happened in college football since the 2005 Texas Longhorns, we nearly expect our college football champion to reach their goal flawlessly. If they cannot do so, there is often controversy (within the current bowl system) as to whether or not they are the true and deserving champions.

So it takes 19-0 to accomplish NFL perfection. It takes 13-0 or 14-0 to accomplish college football perfection and here we are today, many experts believing that a team could possibly double the feats we know to be highly unlikely and go an astonishing 39-0. Well, perhaps they do not believe that anymore after the University of North Carolina Tar Heels men's basketball team lost on Sunday to Boston College, 85-78.
So why was it that there were certain so-called experts believing the University of North Carolina Tar Heels could go 39-0? I'd argue for one reason and one reason only: it has been done before. It has been done seven times, once by San Francisco, once by UNC, four times by UCLA, and most recently by the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers. That was only a 32-0 bid, around seven less games than a team of today would have to win for perfection.

So it has been more than 30 years. Is it still possible? As a lifelong sports fan, I will never say anything is impossible, but I don't think it is going to happen for the 2009. Of course this can be done. But will it remains to be seen.

I think that the Tar Heels loss last Sunday to Boston College will prove to be, dare I say it, a good thing.

Why? Pressure.

The pressure of being undefeated is ridiculous. It is an expectation that removes a team simply from being the best in the country for a given season into the ranks of arguably the best ever.

Sportswriters seem to always be searching for the next team, player, coach, offense, defense or special teams that they can peg as the best ever and the hype about UNC was no different. A team that could go 39-0 in this era of college basketball would truly be in consideration for the best college basketball team of all-time. The problem is that a team going 37-2 or even 38-1 and still winning the NCAA tournament would receive little to no consideration as one of the best of all-time by most people. That happens, maybe not every year, but has become expected. 39-0 is not expected. 39-0 is nearly unfathomable. History seems to remember the undefeated teams far more than the one-loss teams.

I do not believe the Tar Heels had set their standard to 39-0 or bust, but this loss is initially a shaking one, especially considering that Boston College wasn't even ranked and the game was at home.

But it has to relieve some of the pressure. The pressure that is piled upon an undefeated team is always more and always will be more than a team not striving for perfection. There's no question in my mind that a team that goes 34-5 yet wins the NCAA tournament is better than a 38-1 team whose one loss was in the championship game, yet it seems as though the media and the nation's fans would choose the 38-1 team, falling shy of perfection at the last moment, any day over the 34-5 national champion.

The pressure to perform at a perfect level is more than people can handle. Why do you think we haven't seen an undefeated college basketball team in 33 years? The quest to win a national championship is great enough. Why make the quest more difficult? I think the Tar Heels will learn from this loss and be able to move forward with some perspective, and it will make them in the long-run a better candidate for a national championship.

As for the teams that remain undefeated, my prediction is this. In this day and age, if any team actually manages to enter the NCAA tournament undefeated, they will emerge nothing more than the biggest disappointment in NCAA history.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:40 AM | Comments (0)

The Top 10 Games of 2008 (Pt. 2)

Also see: Pt. 1

8) NHL Stanley Cup Finals Game 5, Penguins @ Red Wings, June 2

The NHL was having a great postseason that seemed to be resurrecting the league from the shadows. Now they had the marquis matchup of the Titletown Detroit Red Wings against the anointed Savior of the league in Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Detroit managed to go up three games to one in the series, though, and were poised to clinch the Stanley Cup in Game 5 in front of their home fans.

Early on in the game, the Penguins made it clear they were not going to let it be easy. Marion Hossa got a nice feed in front from Sid the Kid and found the far corner of the net to put Pitt on the board eight minutes into the game. Then as Adam Hall drove the puck to the Detroit net, the Red Wings Niklas Kronwall scored an own goal trying to push the puck wide of the net. The puck deflected off Hall's skate and was credited to Hall for a 2-0 Penguins lead in the first period.

The Penguins were fortunate to have a 2-goal lead because as the game progressed, the Red Wings began to dominate play as Penguin goalie Marc-Andre Fleury faced a five-man firing squad in red. First Darren Helm scored on a long wrister for Detroit to make it 2-1 early in the second period. Looking to tie with 2:50 left in the second, the Wings broke to a two-on-one rush as Mikael Samuelsson was cruelly denied by Fleury with a full extension left pad stretch that seemed impossible. This kept the Pens up 2-1 going into the third.

It was the third period where the Red Wings really turned up the heat. Sensing the Cup in their grasp, the Wings started the period by firing 12 shots on goal (countless others narrowly went wide or hit a post) before Pittsburgh could manage a single one. Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk teased the home fans early in the period with a shot off the crossbar that sounded the foghorn and stopped play but alas was not a goal. Datsyuk though would get another chance on the power play only minutes later, deflecting a high-speed pass through the five-hole of Fleury to tie the game at two with 13:17 left. After a few more frantic saves by Fleury, Brian Rafalsky gave the Red Wings their first lead with a far angle shot that the Penguins screened goalie couldn't reach with 10:37 remaining.

Suddenly, the overmatched Penguins were playing against the chants of "We want the cup!" as well as a better hockey team. With one minute left in their season, the Penguins finally were able to keep the puck in Detroit's end after they had pulled Fleury and added the sixth skater. Maxim Talbot found a wraparound angle and tried to slip it past the Wings goalie Chris Osgood, he was denied by the left pad, but the puck remained right in front of the crease and Talbot scored on the second effort with just 34 seconds remaining to tie the game at three and silence the crowd. It was only the Penguins fourth shot of the period against the Red Wings 14 shots but it was good enough to force overtime.

After all this drama, the game was barely half over.

The overtime would feature more of the same play with the Red Wings firing 13 shots on Fleury while Pittsburgh only managed two. At this point, Fleury may as well have been filming an instructional video on how to save every conceivable type of shot. If you're scoring at home, that's Red Wings 27 shots, Penguins 6 over a 40-minute span of Finals hockey. And yet the Penguins lasted into a second overtime.

A funny thing happened in that second OT. While neither team could still find the net, the Penguins outshot the Red Wings, 8-7. This was the first time in any period the Wings had been outshot. Osgood was suddenly being forced to make as many great saves as Fleury (who committed highway robbery with his glove save on Dan Cleary in this period) as the action remained furious on both ends. When Detroit went on the power play in the period's final two minutes, the Penguins held them without a shot.

As the weary competitors battled through a third overtime, Pittsburgh's Petr Sykora was feeling his oats enough to tell NBC reporter Pierre Maguire that he felt like he was going to score the winner, a la quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in Lambeau field in 2004.

Nine minutes into the third overtime, the Penguins got the biggest break of the game. Jiri Hudler of Detroit lifted his stick and incidentally cut the face of Rob Skuderi, incurring a four-minute penalty. Quickly, Sykora found a space to fire a shot wide of the net. Moments later, Evgeni Malkin found Sykora open again. This time he didn't miss, and the Penguins escaped a silent Joe Louis Arena with a victory. The Cup remained boxed up. Sykora was, in the words of Maguire, "a man of his word." Not to mention the otherworldly performance of Marc-Andre Fleury, who had saved 55 shots by the time it was over, while Detroit's Chris Osgood only had to save 28.

Final score: Penguins 4, Red Wings 3 3OT

The Red Wings would finally clinch the cup in Pittsburgh two nights later in Game 6 by a 3-2 score and even there, they needed a last-ditch save by Osgood to secure the win.

Other NHL Honorable Mentions

• Eastern first round Game 7, Flyers 3 @ Capitals 2 OT, Jeoffrey Lupul goal wins it, Alexander Ovechkin scores tying goal in second period for Caps
• Western second round Game 6, Stars 2, Sharks 1 4OT, great saves by Marty Turco (61 saves) and Vladimir Nabokov (53 saves), Stars win and clinch series

7) NBA Finals Game 4, Celtics @ Lakers, June 12

The Association salivated over the possibilities when the green and yellow teams with all the tradition and rivalry in their past managed to find their way back to the finals for the first time since 1987. It was because they knew a game like this would be possible.

This was essentially a home-court series as the Celtics outplayed the Lakers in Boston, only to find Kobe Bryant take over down the stretch of Game 3 to salt away a Laker victory to cut the series lead to 2-1. Game 4 saw the Lakers come storming out of the gates eager to tie the series. Running the Celtics ragged up and down the floor, the Lake Show was in full effect early on. The only strange thing was that this was Lamar Odom's show, not Kobe's. Odom started 6-of-6 from the field as L.A. went ahead 35-14 after one quarter. The 21-point advantage marked the largest point differential after one quarter in NBA history.

When Sasha "The Machine" Vujacic hit a three from the wing midway through the second quarter, L.A. led 45-21, upping the lead to 24. It was at this point of the game where ABC announcer Mike Breen asked his colleagues on the air, "Which has been more of a struggle for Boston, offense or defense?" Analyst Jeff van Gundy replied "Unfortunately, you can't pinpoint it. It's both."

Boston answered with a 12-0 run to cut the lead in half before the Lakers found one last push at the end of the half. This was capped by Jordan Farmar's crazy running three off glass at the halftime buzzer to bring the lead back up to 18 points. Kobe Bryant had only scored three points on 0-4 shooting and yet the Lakers were rolling.

While the Celtics chipped into the lead coming out of the locker room, by the six-minute mark of the third quarter, L.A. had restored it to a 70-50 advantage. Boston responded with a Pierce layup and an Eddie House three. Then came perhaps the most symbolic moment of the series. Up by 15 points, league MVP Kobe Bryant tried a fadeaway jumper from the wing on eventual series MVP Paul Pierce and the truth moved right along with Kobe and blocked his shot point blank. Not only that, Pierce managed to keep the ball in play and turn it into a Celtics fast break, just the way the old Celtics preached.

Over the next five minutes, Pierce would elude three Lakers in mid-air for a tricky up-and-under reverse layup, Pau Gasol would miss an easy dunk, and Boston reserve P.J. Brown would slam one down emphatically to end the third quarter. He had good reason to, the Laker lead was now down to two. All in all, a 21-3 run for Boston to make the score 73-71 going into the fourth.

Early in the fourth, the Celtics draw even several times with L.A., but by this point in the game, Kobe Bryant had finally found his scoring touch and answered each tying bucket with a driving layup, a 20-foot jumper or a breakaway slam. Still it wasn't enough to pull away, just to keep that small margin in tact.

This ended when Eddie House drained a jumper from the baseline to break the seal. Boston had their first lead of the game at 84-83 with 4:07 to go. The Celtics had gone 2-8 on the road in the postseason up until this point, while the Lakers were a perfect 9-0 at home. A 24-point Celtic comeback in Staples was quite hard to fathom.

Ray Allen would make a tough reverse layup to elude Gasol, and Kevin Garnett hits a pull-up in the lane that incredibly made it a five-point lead. In the final two minutes, it was the Lakers trying to come from behind, but Boston wouldn't allow it. Repeatedly, they drained dagger-like shots to bring their lead back to two possessions.

In the final stanza, Boston led 94-91 with 40 seconds left and the ball. The Lakers needed an elusive stop for the chance to tie. Boston killed the clock and put the ball in the hands of Ray Allen, the man Pierce and Garnett (the other two thirds of the "Boston Three Party") both agreed should be the man taking the final shot in a big playoff game. Allen drove through the lane making mincemeat of Vujacic and eluding Gasol at the bucket — exposing their wretched, halfhearted excuses for defense — with ease, to put up an effortless lefty layup off the glass to ice the game. A joyous Pierce hopped and danced around in the backcourt, looking every bit the green leprachaun on the Boston logo, sans the cigar.

Moments later, the game's final seconds would bleed away, completing the Celtic victory. The 24-point deficit Boston faced is the largest any team has ever overcome in the 61-year history of the NBA Finals. It was certainly a game, and a feat worthy of classic Celtics vs. Lakers lore. Just as fans remember Don Nelson's lucky bounce in '69, Gerald Henderson's steal in '84 or Magic Johnson's junior sky hook in '87, they will remember the comeback of '08. There was one thing that meant more to eventual MVP Pierce than the comeback, though, and he was excitedly screaming it all the way through the tunnel back into the locker room. "One more!"

Final score: Celtics 97, Lakers 91

Boston now held a 3-1 lead in the series, which would prove to be too much for Kobe and the Lakers to overcome, as Boston clinched the title at home in six games.

Coming soon: Games No. 6 and No. 5

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

January 6, 2009

NFL Wild Card Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* I appreciate the sentiment to "let 'em play" in the postseason, but John Parry's officiating crew simply neglected their duties this weekend in Arizona. I love to see a game without many penalties, but there are some that you have to call, and this crew didn't.

* Non-BCS conferences are now 3-1 in BCS Bowls. Teams like Utah can compete with anyone in the country, and they should get that chance. The undefeated Utes may be the best team in college football this year.

* I think Tony Dungy should take more than one week to decide whether or not he's retiring. The team has his successor in place, and doesn't need a quick decision.

* Rumors make Eric Mangini the front-runner for head coach in Cleveland. If the Browns have to choose between Scott Pioli as GM and Mangini as HC, they should go with Pioli.

* From the Strange Coincidence Department: Miami's last two playoff losses have both been to Baltimore, and Minnesota's last two playoff losses have both been to the Eagles.

***

Wild Card Roundups

Falcons @ Cardinals

We got two awfully good games on Saturday, beginning in Arizona, which hosted the visiting Falcons. That setting just may have swung this game. The Cardinals were a better home team (6-2) than the Falcons were a road team (4-4), and that was an important part of why Arizona won. Announcers Tom Hammond and Cris Collinsworth repeatedly referenced the crowd's impact, and Kurt Warner did the same in post-game interviews.

This was the Turnaround Bowl, featuring the perennial loser Cardinals and the seemingly hopeless Falcons, who were coming off a 4-12 season and widely predicted to be the NFL's worst team this year. Ultimately, the story of this contest was the Cardinal defense, which held Atlanta to 250 yards and just 3.7 per play, shutting down the ground game and forcing three turnovers. The defense scored a crucial touchdown and a safety.

Matt Millen, working with NBC for the weekend (and doing a fine job), guessed that the Cardinals "had something" on Atlanta's line and knew what was coming. I wondered if Ryan's cadence was too regular. Either way, Arizona consistently anticipated the snap of the ball, and turned in perhaps their finest performance of the season.

There's something else I wanted to mention. Many of you know that former Cardinals safety Pat Tillman left his football career to join the military and was killed by friendly fire in Afghanistan. Collinsworth asked on Saturday, "If Pat Tillman doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame, who does?" I don't have anything negative to say about Tillman as a person, but he wasn't a good enough player to belong in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The by-laws are very clear that players are judged on their performance on the field, not off it. If we start inducting everyone who does admirable things off the field or dies before his time, the Hall won't serve the mission it was established to fulfill. Let's praise Tillman for his bravery and dedication, but no one should get voted in on sentiment. For those who are interested in this topic, though, I suggest looking up Al Blozis. He was a better player than Tillman, and a World War II officer who was killed trying to rescue one of his soldiers.

Colts @ Chargers

Another turnaround game, featuring a pair of teams who each started 3-4 before going undefeated in December. The shock in this game was two oft-criticized defenses outplaying a pair of explosive offenses. For much of the contest, it was a battle of field position, and San Diego punter Mike Scifres may have been the most valuable player on the field. Scifres punted six times, and all six ended inside the Colts' 20-yard line. Five of his punts were at least 50 yards, and the other was fair-caught inside the 10. I have never seen a finer game from a punter, and I suspect I never will.

In this unexpected defensive battle, that field position was critical, but the Chargers were the better team in all phases this weekend. The Colts, tagged in the past as playoff chokers, didn't help their reputation with this game. To be fair, there was no glaring deficiency or obvious scapegoat. Peyton Manning didn't have the best game of his life, but he didn't have a meltdown, either. The running game went nowhere, but that's been true all season. The pass protection was mostly okay, and the defense actually did better than expected. Indy's special teams got outplayed, but it wasn't their fault Scifres punted like the ball was made of flubber. If I had to pick something the Colts did obviously wrong, how can you call heads on the overtime coin toss? Tails never fails.

This win is further vindication for Norv Turner, who has endured calls for his firing since the day he was hired. Turner is now 3-1 in the playoffs during his stint with the Chargers. It's time to stop blaming him for the messes created by Daniel Snyder and Al Davis, and acknowledge that he may be one of the better head coaches in the NFL. Turner's midseason firing of defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell, and the promotion of Ron Rivera to fill that post, probably saved San Diego's season.

Ravens @ Dolphins

Did you notice the common ground among winners this weekend? Defensive touchdowns. There were no defensive scores in the Colts/Bolts game, but the defenses of Arizona, Baltimore, and Philadelphia combined for 3 TDs and a safety. The Ravens forced 5 turnovers on Sunday, including 4 interceptions of Chad Pennington. It was the first game all season in which Pennington had multiple INTs, and only the second time in his career that Pennington had thrown more than 3 interceptions in a game.

Miami's defense played well, too, but not at the same level as their opponents. I was very impressed with Joe Flacco knowing when and how to throw the ball away. He did a great job of avoiding negative plays. On a day when neither offense was effective, that distinction — between Baltimore's ability to protect the ball, and the Jets' repeated turnovers — was the difference in the game.

The Dolphins simply looked outclassed against Baltimore, and they couldn't overcome all those turnovers. I don't know why Miami's offense went four-wide so often, but the Ravens were able to generate significant pressure on Pennington with only a four-man rush. Ed Reed now has 5 interceptions, returned for 145 yards, in his postseason career. The all-time records are 9 interceptions and 196 yards. After only three playoff games, Reed is already closing in.

Eagles @ Vikings

Less spectacularly than in San Diego, special teams played an important role in this game. Most teams get one or two big special teams plays per game, and Minnesota was no exception, with a couple of punts that pinned Philadelphia around its own five-yard line. But the Eagles had half a dozen really good plays on special teams, including two long punt returns, a 51-yard field goal, and several great boots from punter Sav Rocca.

The game was probably a little closer than the score indicates, but Philadelphia's defense took over at halftime. Minnesota opened the second half with five straight punts, followed by a lost fumble. The Vikings never connected on a deep pass, and Adrian Peterson had eight carries for 17 yards in the second half. In fact, other than a 40-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, Peterson never really got going. Aside from that play, he had 19 attempts for just 43 yards (2.3 average).

Philadelphia's defense didn't pile up sacks and turnovers the way some analysts expected, but it was the dominant unit in this game. The Eagles bottled up Peterson, and Tarvaris Jackson never made them pay in the passing game.

Divisional Forecast

Ravens @ Titans

The Ravens may be better, and the Titans may be rusty, but I can't pick against Tennessee. The Titans have risen to the occasion whenever they had to, and they're very good at protecting the ball. Baltimore's offense struggled against Miami, and without some points from the defense, I don't know if they can win this one. Titans by 4.

Cardinals @ Panthers

Easiest pick of the weekend. Arizona was 3-5 on the road, and Carolina was 8-0 at home. The Cardinals showed a respectable running game and improved defense on Saturday, but I'm not a believer yet. The Panthers' biggest worry is their own defense, which struggled towards the end of the season, but I'm going with Carolina by 10.

Eagles @ Giants

I hate picking Eagles games. On a good day, they can beat anyone, and on a bad day, they can tie Cincinnati. This feels a little like a coin flip, gambling on which Philadelphia team will show up. My bet is that Eli Manning will limit his mistakes, and the Giants win by 6 in a defensive battle.

Chargers @ Steelers

The Steelers are the better team, but I'm feeling the upset. San Diego's ever-improving defense will pressure Ben Roethlisberger, who may or may not be totally healthy, and the Chargers' explosive offense will make enough big plays to win. Chargers by 1.

***

Finally, a Sports Central tradition, our annual All-Loser Team: an all-star team made up entirely of players whose teams missed the postseason.

2008 NFL All-Loser Team

QB Drew Brees, NO
RB Steve Slaton, HOU
FB Mike Sellers, WAS
WR Andre Johnson, HOU
WR Calvin Johnson, DET
TE Tony Gonzalez, KC
C Nick Mangold, NYJ
G Alan Faneca, NYJ
G Brian Waters, KC
OT Ryan Clady, DEN
OT Jammal Brown, NO

DT Kris Jenkins, NYJ
DT Shaun Rogers, CLE
DE Mario Williams, HOU
DE Richard Seymour, NE
OLB DeMarcus Ware, DAL
OLB Lance Briggs, CHI
ILB Barrett Ruud, TB
ILB London Fletcher, WAS
CB Charles Woodson, GB
CB Nnamdi Asomugha, OAK
FS Nick Collins, GB
SS Abram Elam, NYJ

K Phil Dawson, CLE
P Brad Maynard, CHI
KR Clifton Smith, TB

Honorable Mentions: Matt Forte (RB, CHI); Clinton Portis (RB, WAS); Greg Jennings (WR, GB); Wes Welker (WR, NE); Logan Mankins (G, NE); Darrelle Revis (CB, NYJ); Brian Moorman (P, BUF); Johnnie Lee Higgins (KR, OAK)

Offensive Loser of the Year: Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
Defensive Loser of the Year: DeMarcus Ware, OLB, DAL
Most Valuable Loser: DeMarcus Ware, OLB, DAL

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:52 AM | Comments (1)

Future is Now For the NFL Prospects

It has been said that timing is everything and no truer an idiom exists when considering the futures of several top collegiate performers. Historically, earning some of college football's highest honors means little to a player's value relative to NFL talent evaluators. Heisman Memorial Trophy winning signal-callers like Andre Ware (1989), Gino Torretta ('92), Charlie Ward ('93), Danny Wuerffel ('96), Eric Crouch ('01), and Jason White ('03) each dominated their competition, yet failed to impress scouts enough to earn anything outside of circumstantial consideration on draft weekend.

Quarterbacks aren't the only players subject to such scrutiny. The Doak Walker Award has been awarded to the nation's top collegiate running back each season since 1990. The award's inaugural recipient, Washington's Greg Lewis, didn't hear his name called until the fifth round of the NFL Annual Player Selection Meeting when he was selected by the Denver Broncos. Lewis went on to play just two seasons in the NFL. His story is not unique; Rice's Trevor Cobb went undrafted after winning the award in 1991 and in 2001, BYU's Luke Staley wasn't selected until the seventh round. Even Byron "Bam" Morris, who showcased a rare combination of size, speed, and power while excelling at Texas Tech, didn't get chosen until round three in the '94 draft.

Regardless of position, there is a litany of players who just didn't make the grade when being assessed as professional prospect — wide receivers like Troy Walters, Mike Haas, and Marcus Harris (Biletnikoff Award winners) and linebackers such as Erick Anderson, Dana Howard, Matt Russell, and Rocky Calmus (Butkus Award winners) — for one reason or another. Even positions that traditionally translate quite well from one level to the next such as interior offensive and defensive lineman are not exempt from these judgments. Minnesota's Greg Eslinger won both the Outland Trophy and the Dave Rimington Trophy — awarded to the nation's top interior lineman and center, respectively — in 2005 yet remained undrafted in the 2006 draft until round six. Kris Farris, a 6'9", 295-pound Outland Trophy-winning behemoth who was a stud tackle at UCLA in 1998 didn't get picked until the third round; ridiculous considering his combination of size and dexterity.

There can be no other rational explanation for such subjectivity run amok than the most simple of these reasons; timing. In the early 1990s, for example, smallish running backs were ignored by many even after the success of Barry Sanders wowed traditionalists who insisted that a prototypical runner stood six-feet tall and weighed in at 210 pounds, so players like Cobb and Lewis were viewed as novelties.

Ditto with the quarterbacks; the NFL was largely into pro-style offenses in the early- to mid-'90s, which required tall-standing, strong-armed quarterbacks with minimal athletic ability. "System passers" like Miami's Torretta and Florida's Wuerffel were considered under-qualified where they may well have gotten more serious consideration had they been coming out of school a decade earlier where precision passing was at a premium. Receivers like Haas and Harris would have been shoo-ins as first round picks in the '70s when the passing game was just taking off in the NFL and guys who could catch the ball and run solid routes were as necessary as they were rare.

This brings us to the 2008 crop of potential NFL draftees. What qualities will be sought after in the '09 draft that will make or break those headline-grabbers from the current NCAA landscape? Taking a look at each of those athletes that have the hardware in their trophy cases and the draft eligibility to participate in next spring's selection meeting, I've assessed each player's skill-set relative to what NFL teams are likely to be looking for and have noted which of those players will be playing on Sunday's and which will be struggling to make a practice squad.

Bronko Nagurski Award (Defensive Player of the Year)

Brian Orakpo, DL Texas — Orakpo has the size (6'4", 260 lbs) scouts love and undeniable power on the field. Because of his strength, he translates to a player that can stop both the run and pass as a defensive end and can also play as a pocket-collapsing presence in the middle of the defensive line in nickel packages. There isn't a whole lot of chance, barring some unforeseen character issues popping up before the draft or a debilitating injury occurring in their bowl game, that the top defensive player in the nation doesn't go in the top five of the '09 draft.

John Mackey Award (Outstanding Tight End)

Chase Coffman, Missouri — Mizzou's "other" Chase stands to have much more draft day value than the QB that shares his first name. At 6'6", 245 lbs, Coffman has the prototypical size for a 21st century NFL tight end. He has shown incredibly sure hands and has also proven to be a more than adequate in-line blocker in his three seasons at Missouri and carries a great deal of value at the TE position, which typically carries a second or third round draft value. Coffman certainly shouldn't last past round two, and his skill-set and tangible qualities would translate well to any era.

Jim Thorpe Award (Outstanding Defensive Back)

Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State — At 6'1", you would think Jenkins fits the mold of a pro cornerback to a tee. However, in recent years, the trend has reverted back toward smallish corners with more speed and things figure to continue in that direction, making Jenkins an interesting player. Assuming he runs in the 4.4 range, as he has in the past, Jenkins may well solidify a spot in the first round fulfilling what many have considered to be his destiny as a top-flight pro prospect. However, if he falters in workouts and winds up closer to the 4.5s, expect a fall for Jenkins perhaps even to the middle of round two. Relative to timing, had Jenkins been draft eligible six years back, when big corners were the "it" thing, he'd be a sure-fire top-10 selection. But now, with the possibility of being asked to man a safety position should he not post a great workout time, his stock will likely take a hit.

Fred Biletnikoff Award (Outstanding Wide Receiver)

Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech — I won't spend much time here at all other than to say in any era, at any time, under any circumstances, Michael Crabtree is an ideal wide receiver. He will go in the top ten, he should go in the top five and he will be a top talent at the next level.

Doak Walker Award (National Running Back Award)

Shonn Greene, RB Iowa — While Greene meets the standards today's pro scouts set for their halfbacks (6-foot-ish, 230-ish), he lacks the gear-changing ability most teams look for when trying to find that "difference-maker" in the backfield. Add that to the 11 catches total Greene had at Iowa, and you have yourself the type of one-dimensional back that frankly could be had in rounds three or four. While Greene will likely be selected in round two at the latest, you'd expect more from the nation's top tailback. Again, had Greene come along five or 10 years earlier, when just straight-ahead running was enough to get you a fat pro contract, he'd had made out very well come draft weekend. In today's environment, though, the Iowa runner is little more than the most prolific of a very common mold that is neither highly sought after nor heavily valued.

Dick Butkus Award (Outstanding Linebacker)

Aaron Curry, OLB Wake Forest — Like Crabtree, Curry has very high "portability" to any era. At 6'2", he is the standard size for a prototypical linebacker. At 246 pounds, he carries enough weight to handle bigger o-lineman without negatively impacting his agility. Average 40-time, but tenacious aggression and hawkish ball skills more than make up for any lack in burst he may have. Curry should be an early day one draft choice and all indications are he'll live up to that ranking fully.

Outland Trophy (Outstanding Interior Lineman)

Andre Smith, OT Alabama — Character issues are the only potential negative there is on Smith, who's size, strength and ability define a pro-style offensive tackle. Assuming there are no deal-breaking sort of revelations between now and the draft, Big Andre should be the top pick in April's draft and likely would have been had he come out in 1999 or 1989, as well.

Chuck Bednarick Award (Defensive Player of the Year)

Rey Maualuga, LB USC — Linebackers are quite commonly lumped into groups based on size/speed indicators by draft gurus across the land. The powerful and productive USC linebacker may actually suffer a subtle value loss as a result of this grouping. Because of relative heaviness (260 lbs at last check) at the position, Rey will likely be rated just below the top-tier of pure linebacker prospects as he will be classified a bit of a 'tweener. Today's pro teams like leaner, speedier outside guys and typically prefer their MLB prospects to be a bit more svelte to enhance their coverage prowess. The result will be a lower first round grade than I think many expect, and this is based solely on a preference for smaller-framed guys at the position that has grown prevalent in recent years.

Walter Camp Award (College Player of the Year)

Colt McCoy, QB Texas — McCoy is likely to return to UT for one last run at a national title, however, if he were to jump ship and go pro in 2009, he would be pleasantly surprised with his draft status. At 6'3", 210 pounds and with excellent arm strength and straight-line speed, McCoy is a viable pro option by any team's standards these days. Long gone are the days when statuesque individuals (think Drew Bledsoe) are the preference and we all know how pro teams feel about smallish guys (Troy Smith, eat your heart out). Colt has the size that teams feel is required and the arm strength that allows him to make all the throws without compromising his ability to make something happen with his legs and pocket presence. Colt certainly would not fall victim to any era-based biases and in fact would make out quite nicely as a result of a recent development that has made a mobile-but-not-too-mobile breed of QB a very valuable commodity.

Maxwell Award (Outstanding Player)

Tim Tebow, QB Florida — Another that may not test the draft-day waters in 2009, Tebow is by far the most interesting of all prospective draftees. Recent history dictates that Tebow hasn't showcased the pure passing chops that endear him to professional scouts and the failings of Mike Vick and Vince Young as "hybrid" players at the position are cause for pause among any circle of assessors. Smart money says that Tebow would have to switch positions (possibly tight end) to make himself a first round prospect, but frankly, I just don't see that happening.

Had we been having this discussion at this time last season (assuming again that Tebow was draft eligible), I'd have been telling you that Tim would most certainly be a second round pick at best, a huge disappointment for a Heisman winner and two-time Maxwell Award winner. But in today's game, thanks largely to the innovations of the Miami Dolphins coaching staff, the "Wildcat"-style package has created an interesting niche for Mr. Tebow. Imagine lining up the single wing with Tebow taking the snaps 10 to 15 times a game. He could throw as easily as he could run and no better straight-ahead running option exists.

Believe me when I tell you that this fact and recent development has not been lost on the league, nor has it been missed by Tebow's advisors. No better example of timing exists in this year's draft and should he decide to go pro, he is likely back in the top 15 and certainly wouldn't get past Miami in late round one. While this is still a bit of an upset considering the hardware he carries in his trophy case, Tebow's skills couldn't come onto the scene at a better time and may well solidify his future as a QB at the next level.

Heisman Memorial Trophy (Outstanding Player)

Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma — Yet one more signal-caller that may or may not turn pro, Bradford is far less of a question mark than the two others may be, at least on paper. With size, strength, agility and a proven track record of winning, Bradford is a franchise-type QB prospect. Be wary, though, if you are Sam; as the title of this piece implies, timing is everything, and no better time exists than when you are both healthy and at the top of your game when it comes to cashing in on draft day.

Next year may not be so kind, just ask Matt Leinart.

Posted by Matt Thomas at 11:47 AM | Comments (0)

January 5, 2009

In the Rotation: NBA Week 10

With the halfway point of the NBA regular season creeping up on us, there are a few things that we already know to be true: the Lakers, Celtics, and Cavs are the best teams in the league; LeBron James is the best player in the league. Really, other than those two things, there hasn't been much else around the league that has been settled.

We still don't know who the MVP is. We still don't know who'll round out the playoff picture in each conference. And, apparently, we don't know who the breakout starts of 2008-09 are. I say apparently, because based the early all-star voting, there are some great players having huge seasons that are going unnoticed around the NBA.

In today's starting five we take a look at the five biggest breakout stars of the season, and I'll even put the team they play for next to their name. You know, just in case you were unsure.

Starting Five

1. Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets

The Nets acquired Harris last season in the Jason Kidd deal and have been smiling ever since. Not only was Harris the best player in the trade, one that included a future first ballot Hall of Famer and a former NBA scoring champ, but he may just be the best point guard in the Eastern Conference.

Harris' 23.7 points per game is good for seventh best in the NBA and his 6.6 assists per contest has him 12th in the league. Only Harris, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Joe Johnson rank in the top 20 in both categories. Not bad company to keep.

After being somewhat handcuffed by Avery Johnson's system in Dallas last year, Harris has thrived under the free-wheeling dribble-handoff style of play of Lawrence Frank, averaging an amazing 9 points more per game than he did a season ago.

It's not just his offense that has made Devin Harris a star this year, either. He also ranks 15th in the league in steals per game, with a respectable 1.6 per game.

Still, despite his nearly unheard of increase in production, Harris isn't even the leading vote getting guard on his team. Vince Carter ranks third in the balloting at guard in the East, despite having worse numbers across the board and being less valuable to the team than Harris.

While I fully expect Harris to be named to the all-star team as a reserve, his lack of "big name" star power on the ballot will prevent him from being the starting point guard for the East, an honor he certainly deserves.

2. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers

The 6'8" swingman has been a scoring machine for the Pacers this season. His 25.1 points per game has him at fifth in the league. Granger's ability to play both inside and outside, he ranks fifth in the league in three-pointers made and 14th in free throws made, makes him one of the most versatile scorers in the league and a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.

And while his scoring numbers have been remarkable, it's Granger's ability to stuff the stat sheet in other areas that has turned him into a borderline superstar through the first 30 games. His 5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1 steal per game quietly has him ranking in the top 10 in overall production ahead of superstars like Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, and Kevin Garnett.

How quietly? Granger ranks just eighth in the all-star balloting among Eastern Conference forwards.

3. Paul Millsap

In my season preview, I wrote about the Utah Jazz:

"Now, unbelievably because their all-world point guard Deron Williams is all of 24-years-old, all of a sudden this could be Utah's last chance. If Carlos Boozer packs his things and bolts out of Utah after this season, the Jazz could be in real trouble. They may have another 10 years of greatness left from Williams, but this team could very well be the best chance he ever gets at winning a title. It's not easy to replace 21 points and 11 rebounds."

Apparently, it's not as hard as I once thought to replace 21 and 11.

After Carlos Boozer had to shut it down with a knee injury, Paul Millsap emerged as an elite-level power forward for the Jazz and has made it possible for this team to be just two games out of first place despite only getting a combined 33 games from Boozer and Deron Williams.

Though his 15 points and 9 rebounds per game is solid, it's far from earth-shattering. But it's his string of 15 consecutive double-doubles (snapped only when he had to leave the game with an injury after getting 11 points and 9 rebounds) starting in place of Boozer that has Jazz fans less and less worried about the possible departure of Boozer this offseason.

When you consider that Millsap, in just his third NBA season, will command about half as much money as Boozer this offseason when they are both free agents, it's not farfetched to believe that the Jazz will trade Boozer before the trade deadline and commit to Paul Millsap as their power forward of the future full-time by February.

4. Rodney Stuckey

I didn't get them all wrong in the NBA preview. Of Rodney Stuckey I said:

"Just how impressed is new Pistons head coach Michael Curry with Rodney Stuckey? He has vowed to cut the minutes of Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups, each of whom has played in the previous three all-star games, in order to ensure that Stuckey gets at least 30 minutes per game."

Well, I guess I was kind of wrong. I actually underestimated how high the Pistons were on Stuckey. Instead of just cutting Billups minutes, they shipped him out completely to allow Stuckey to be the full-time point guard.

Stuckey hasn't disappointed. Though the transition from Billups to Allen Iverson hasn't been seamless, Rodney Stuckey has been great recently and has helped Detroit regain its stride, leading them to seven consecutive wins despite injuries to several of their key players.

With their win over the Clippers on Sunday, the Pistons are now 13-3 in games that Rodney Stuckey starts. His 13.5 points and 5 assists per game aren't going to land him on an All-NBA team any time soon, but a 40-point game and a 38-point game in the last two weeks is an indication that the high level of play we've seen from Stuckey may just be the tip of the iceberg.

5. Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors

When the Raptors traded for away T.J. Ford this offseason, they were essentially handing the reigns to Calderon. His brilliant play filling in for the injured Ford last season was enough of a sample size to convince Bryan Colangelo that he has his point guard.

And, like everyone else on this list, Calderon has not disappointed. In his first full season as a starter, Calderon is averaging career highs in nearly every offensive category, including 8.7 assists per game, good for third best in the league behind only Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

Oh yeah, then there's the fact that Calderon hasn't missed a free throw since April 11th of 2008. He's made his first 72 free throws of the season, and has almost reached the point where it's become like a pitcher throwing a no-hitter. To be honest, I already regret bringing attention to it. Forget I even mentioned it, and we'll check back in a few months and see if he really can go the entire season without missing a free throw.

In the Rotation

Friday, Jan. 9th: Celtics @ Cavaliers

It's the second meeting of the season between these two teams, but the first since both teams established themselves as two of only three real contenders for the NBA title.

Boston enters the week just percentage points ahead of Cleveland in the standings, but have been reeling slightly as of late (more on that to come).

Cleveland, meanwhile, has been the best 26-5 team that no one talks about. The only thing that ever seems to get reported about this team is that their best player may or may not become a free agent in two years. Here's some non-LeBron-will-be-a-free-agent-one-day news on the Cavs: they're unbeaten at home.

Their 17-0 home record makes this Cavs team that much more of a threat come playoff time when you consider that with a win on Friday over Boston, the Cavs will be in position to have home court advantage all the way through the NBA Finals. For a team that never loses at home, I'd say that's pretty significant.

(Random NBA League Pass thought of the week: it's no secret that my favorite part of the NBA League Pass has become listening to the announcers. The potential for unintentional comedy is off the charts. While there are some unintentionally hilarious duos out there, the FSN Ohio team of Fred McCloud and Austin Carr easily takes the cake. Between McCloud's near seizure every time LeBron dunks and A.C. ending every sentence with "in the Q!", I simply cannot get enough of these guys.

It's almost a shame that the Celtics game is on ESPN. In a game of this magnitude, Carr is a lock to break Clyde Drexler's record for using the same phrase over and over in one broadcast (Drexler currently holds the record for calling Yao "The Great Wall" roughly 50 times per game). I guess I'll just have to tune in on Wednesday to see if Carr can break the record when the Cavaliers play the Bobcats, you guessed, in the Q!)

Out of the Rotation

Boston Celtics

Brace yourself for what I'm about to tell you: the Boston Celtics are not the greatest basketball team ever assembled. I'm having just as hard a time believing it as you are, but it's true. The honeymoon of the 27-2 start is over, and the Celtics look human again, losing four of their last six games.

It's not to say that that C's haven't been outstanding so far, after all they did get off to the best start in NBA history, but reality is setting in. This is an old team with nothing to play for again until April. The showdown on Christmas Day with the Lakers was a pretty good litmus test. If they won, they had the potential to have a record setting season. The momentum of that win could have elevated them to new heights.

Instead, they lost to the Lakers, realized that maybe it's not such a great idea to expend so much energy in the first 30 games, put it in cruise control, and lost some games to teams that have no business beating them.

They may want to put their foot back on the accelerator this week because while their Christmas Day matchup in Los Angeles may have been the sexiest game of the year, their matchup Friday against the Cavs (in the Q!) is far more important.

The Celtics themselves aren't actually out of the rotation this week, but the notion that they're invincible is.

Inactive List

LeBron James' New Commercials

If LeBron wants to be the next Michael Jordan (he would have picked one of the other 99 choices of jersey number if he didn't), he'd better stop phoning it in on his commercials.

While some of his peers, like Dwyane Wade, keep putting out good commercials (Eat the Head!), LeBron's two most popular commercials right now are maybe the worst two of his career.

The one for his new shoe wouldn't crack Michael's top 30.

First of all, the whole "chalk" thing isn't cool. It wasn't cool when K.G. started doing it about 10 years ago, and it's not cool now. It's unoriginal, obnoxious, and probably pretty annoying to the lowly stat guys who get covered in chalk dust before every game because LeBron wants attention.

Second of all, Jordan set the bar ridiculously high for good commercials. We're talking about Mars Blackmon, Old Michael vs. Young Michael, kids reenacting his greatest moves on the playground. Not to mention playing Larry Bird in H-O-R-S-E for the Big Mac. These are some of the greatest commercials of all-time.

LeBron's commercial career got off to such a great start with "The LeBrons," but has nosedived this year with his new shoe commercial and the State Farm commercial where he and his boys dance to Kid 'N Play songs.

He may be headed to his first MVP, his first NBA title, and so many other firsts in what will no doubt be an historic career, but put "filming commercials" alongside the laundry list of other categories where he will always rank second behind His Airness.

Be sure to check back at Sports Central every Monday to see who cracks Scott Shepherd's rotation as he breaks down what is going on around the NBA.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

The Top 10 Games of 2008 (Pt. 1)

Notice anything different about the end-of-year sports coverage this past December? No? Well, I did. ESPN has discontinued their annual Top 10 Games series for 2008. Many fans will attest that ESPN does many things wrong in their coverage of sports. But this was a show that year after year got it right. Maybe not all their picks and rankings for the top 10 games each year were right, of course, but the premise was a beautiful one: one spine-tingling hour of games that did the most to twist fans hearts like a pretzel.

So as a major fan of this series, I have taken it upon myself to provide you with the top 10 games of 2008, a year ESPN calls the greatest year in sports, as well as some YouTube clips in case text alone isn't enough to make the hair on your neck stand on end. I will also mention the games that just missed the cut since this year runs so deep with great games. I don't kid. Some truly epic games this year did not make this list.

10) NBA West. Conf. 1st Round, Game 1, Suns @ Spurs, April 19

It's quite possible that the best game of the NBA playoffs happened on its very first day.

Very rarely in sports does Game 1 decide a best-of-seven playoff series. I believe this to be one of them. While the Spurs were clearly the better team, the rivalry was red-hot after the bitter '07 encounter that ended with Robert Horry hip-checking Steve Nash into the scorers table and out of the second round.

The Suns took control early on with a 16-point second-quarter lead, but to no one's surprise, San Anton would come roaring back behind 40 big points from Tim Duncan. Phoenix remained in the lead, 93-90, as the Spurs inbounded with 20 seconds remaining. This was where the real fun started. Manu Ginobili found a cutting Michael Finley coming off a screen for an open three, which he promptly drained to tie the game. One Leandro Barbosa miss later and there was overtime.

Phoenix looked comfy-cozy in the overtime with a 104-99 lead with just over a minute to go, but a Duncan layup and an offensive foul on Amare Stoudemire, his sixth, led to the Spurs having a chance to tie, down by three with 12.6 seconds to go.

As Ginobili dribbled around a double team and looked to kick out for the tying three, the open man beyond the arc was none other than Duncan, who had attempted, and missed, a total of four threes for the entire 2007-08 season. This made for one of the most surreal moments in sports when he drained it with three seconds to go.

Said Spurs coach Gregg Popovich after the game, "Whenever Timmy shoots a three, I have doubt. He's been on me lately for taking his game away and keeping him close to the rim. He thinks he's got a lot more to show and I won't allow it, so I think he's trying to send me a message." So as Duncan uncharacteristically pumped his fist to celebrate the tie (and it was certainly a top-10 fist pump in a top-10 game I might add), he may have also been celebrating vindication over his own coach, as well.

Playing without Stoudemire in the second overtime, the Suns looked down and out when they were forced to foul marksman Brent Barry to get the ball back under 20 seconds to go and trailing by two. Barry missed the first one despite shooting 95% from the line in the regular season. This kept the door open for Steve Nash to drain a fadeaway three from the sideline to tie the game at 115 all while falling into the crowd.

Just 15.7 seconds remained. Instead of calling timeout, the Spurs took it up court and went to Ginobili, who took it right to the rim on Raja Bell. Manu's running two-foot bank shot went down with 1.8 seconds left, and Nash's 3/4-court heave fell just short.

Final score: Spurs 117, Suns 115 2OT

Spurs lead 1-0 in series. They would go on to win the next two games to go up 3-0 before taking the series 4-1. They eventually lose to the Lakers in the Western Finals in five games.

Other NBA Honorable Mentions

Eastern semis Game 7 Cavaliers 92 @ Celtics 97, the great LeBron James (45 points) vs. Paul Pierce (41 points) duel

9) MLB ALCS, Game 5, Rays @ Red Sox, October 16

By 2008, we all knew that the Red Sox liked to fall way behind in their playoff series before coming alive and prevailing in dramatic fashion. No one relished the opportunity to come from behind more than manager Terry Francona's feisty bunch. But this was ridiculous. Enough was enough!

After earning a tough split in Tampa Bay, the Sox were in for a rude awakening coming back home to Fenway. Inexplicably, the Tampa Bay bats came alive and they absolutely threw a party behind the green outfield walls of the old ballpark. They hit 7 homers over the next two games and pinned lopsided losses on ace Jon Lester and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, winning 9-1 and 13-4, respectively, to go up three games to one. The Boston crowd was never able to get into either game and now the Rays looked to finish the job in Game 5 in Boston.

Normally, it was the Red Sox with these clutch surges of power at Fenway. This was hard to comprehend. And the Rays batters continued the trend in Game 5 with a two-run homer by B.J. Upton before Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka could record an out. Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria piled on with home runs in the third to make it 5-0 Rays as the game was playing out exactly like the last two had. Meanwhile, Rays starter Scott Kazmir strung zero after zero up on the scoreboard. Inevitable was not a strong enough word.

Boston got so desperate that they brought out star closer Jonathan Papelbon in the top of the seventh to try to shut down a Rays threat. It didn't work. Upton blasted a two-run double off him to make it 7-0 Rays with only 9 outs between them and an unthinkable AL pennant.

With Grant Balfour taking over the pitching duties for the Rays in the bottom half of the seventh, Jed Lowry led off with a blast off the right field wall for a double. He seemed stranded there until Coco Crisp singled to left with two outs, but even that only took Lowry to third base. Dustin Pedroia followed with a single to right and the Red Sox were finally on the board, and yet all that work plated them only one run.

David Ortiz had been going through possibly the worst slump of his career in Boston until he came up following Pedroia. Ortiz blasted the second pitch he saw around the pesky pole for a 3-run homer and suddenly Fenway was rocking in a 7-4 game.

Still, the Rays led by 3 runs with 6 outs to go as the game reached the eighth. Still a fairly commanding lead. Dan Wheeler would walk Boston's Jason Bay to start the inning though and at this point you could see the Rays losing their poise. Sure enough, J.D. Drew followed with a homer to right make it 7-6. Boston's offense had exploded like a tidal wave. Wheeler settled down and retired the next two batters. Four outs away.

Mark Kotsay then blasted a Wheeler offering towards the gap in left center where the speedy and sure-handed Upton chased it down only for it to tick off his glove for a two-out double. This brought up Coco Crisp and an epic confrontation.

Ball outside. Strike outside corner looking. Ball low. Foul. Ball high as the count went full. Foul. Foul. Foul. Foul. On the 10th pitch, Crisp ripped a line shot into right for a single. Gross could not make a decent throw home to get Kotsay and the Red Sox had tied it. Crisp would be out at second trying to turn his RBI into a double, but the game was now 7-7 going into the ninth.

The Rays threatened in their half against Justin Masterson with a single and a walk and 1 out. Masterson got Pena to ground into a nifty 4-6-3 double-play to end the inning.

J.P. Howell pitched the bottom of the ninth and retired the first two batters including Ortiz on a strikeout. Kevin Youkilis hit a harmless grounder to Longoria at third who bounced the throw to first. Carlos Pena reached up for the third-out throw but could only deflect the ball into the seats, putting Youk at second as the winning run. Howell then intentionally walked Jason Bay to get a lefty-lefty matchup with J.D. Drew, who had hit the home run just an inning earlier. Drew took an off-speed pitch and hit another screaming liner to right, just over the reach of right fielder Gabe Gross to plate Youkilis and ensure bedlam in Fenway once more.

It was yet another vintage Red Sox comeback win in postseason, and with this being the greatest postseason comeback in 78 years and second greatest all-time, perhaps this one was the most unlikely of them all.

Final score: Red Sox 8, Rays 7

Red Sox trail 3-2 in the series. Boston would win Game 6 in Tampa before finally succumbing in a tough Game 7 by a 3-1 score.

Unfortunately, MLB is not a fan of seeing their games on YouTube and won't allow any of their own video to show up there, so this was the best I could do.

Other MLB Honorable Mentions

ALCS Game 2, Rays 9, Red Sox 8, 11 innings, seesaw home run battle decided on a B.J. Upton sacrifice fly in the 11th

ALCS Game 7, Rays 3, Red Sox 1, Rays hang on to fragile lead, despite several late-inning jams, emergence of reliever David Price, who got the game's last four outs as Rays win improbable pennant

World Series Game, 5 Phillies 4, Rays 3, this game had two ties, two lead changes and a tying run thrown out at home in the last four innings, aside from the famous two-day rain delay and Phillies clinching the World Series

All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium, AL 4, NL 3, 15 innings, countless extra inning threats escaped and the game won on a very close play at the plate to send off Yankee Stadium

Coming soon: Games No. 8 and No. 7

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:27 AM | Comments (0)

January 2, 2009

NFL Weekly Predictions: Wild Card Round

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Atlanta @ Arizona (+2½)

The Cardinals closed out the regular season with a 34-21 win over the Seahawks, giving Arizona its first winning season in 10 years. Kurt Warner passed for four scores and Edgerrin James rushed for 100 yards as the Cards built momentum for the franchise's first home playoff game since 1947. They will host the 11-5 Falcons in the first of two first-round games in which the wild card team sports a better record that the home-standing, division-winning team.

"Hey, people may call us a fluke, people may call us a fraud," says Coach Ken Whisenhunt. "But they best not call us the 'Milli Vanilli' of the playoffs, because that would be an insult to Rob and Fab. But all insults of 'lip-synchers' aside, this team, after winning our finale, is playing 'in synch.' And no, I don't mean we're playing 'N Synch, although I'd feel much more secure of our playoff advancement if we were playing 'N Sync."

"As for Warner and James, I'm hoping we can ride the veteran skills of the 'Man With the Golden Arm' and the 'Man With the Golden Teeth' to the second round of the playoffs. Seriously, though, I doubt the Falcons will fall for the 'Edgerrin James as playoff rushing threat' ruse I tried to create by giving him the ball last Sunday. We are a passing team. If we give Kurt, our 'Jesus Christ Superstar' protection, then I don't foresee any way Atlanta can stop him. Unless, of course, the Falcons utilize the 'Anti-Christ Superstar' defense, which employs six defensive backs, but, more importantly, features Brian Warner, also known as shock rocker Marilyn Manson, shouting signals and religious epithets."

Having already secured a playoff berth the week before, the Falcons came within a missed John Kasay field goal of winning the NFC South title, as the Panthers pulled out a 33-31 win in New Orleans. Atlanta won a close one in their own right, edging the upset-minded Rams, 31-27.

"What's the next best thing to winning your division and hosting a playoff game?" says Matt Ryan, the Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year. "Why, traveling out West for a playoff game on the road. It's funny. On the flight to University of Phoenix Stadium, the further west we traveled, the more confident we became, and the closer I came to realizing an unaccredited online degree in Hospitality, Travel, and Tourism."

Styles will clash in Saturday's early game. The Falcons boast the NFL's No. 2 rushing offense, while the Cards were last in rushing yards per game. Atlanta will rush to set up play action and deep balls to Roddy White and Michael Jenkins (that was lifted straight from NFC Playbook on the NFL Network; thanks, Sterling!). On the other hand, Arizona will rush to set up tackles for losses, as well as second and long situations and other obvious passing downs. If they're smart, they'll start with some quick passes on first down, mainly to pick up five or so yards (leaving them the solid option of running on second down), but also to neutralize John Abraham's pass rush skills. And screen passes will work against the Atlanta defense. It'll take 31 points to win this game. Call me a fool, but I'm feeling a home team victory. Arizona wins, 31-28.

Indianapolis @ San Diego (-1)

In what is quickly becoming an intense rivalry, the 12-4 Colts travel to San Diego to face the 8-8 Chargers, who upset the Colts in Indianapolis in last year's divisional playoffs. The Colts gained a small measure of revenge with a Week 12 win in San Diego, but true satisfaction will come only by eliminating the Chargers from the playoffs.

"One has to admire the Chargers," says Peyton Manning. "Their 8-8, division-winning season is a testament to resiliency, a never-say-die spirit, and the need for playoff seeding reform. There's only one way to celebrate such a successful 8-8 season, and that's with a toast of a beverage called the '.500,' a mix of seven and seven and half and half. It sounds like a good combination, but it's really only a mediocre drink."

"But enough about the Chargers. Let's talk about the Colts. If there were ever any doubts that this was my team, then those doubts have been cleared, just like I've cleared space on my mantle for the MVP trophy. I'm the 'Colt' of personality. I sell the things you need to be. I'm the smiling face on your TV I exploit you. Still, you love me. I'm the Colt of personality. Neon lights ... you get the picture. Hopefully, it's on a Sony HD television."

San Diego's rout 52-21 rout of the Broncos won the AFC West and also ended Denver's quest to go wire-to-wire in winning the division. The win also erased the bitter memory of Week 2's loss to Denver, in which an erroneous officiating call gave the Broncos the win.

"Hey, we're not only the hottest 8-8 team in the playoffs," says Philip Rivers, "but the best. I'm very proud of this team and myself for maintaining a professional attitude even in the face of a 4-8 record. Lots of teams would have folded in the face of better circumstances. Like the Broncos, for instance. I can't think of a more satisfying victory. Not only did it get us into the playoffs, but it got Mike Shanahan fired, and it probably put a temporary end to my petty, childlike, trivial feud with Jay Cutler. Which I won. I never would have expected the Broncos to fire Mike Shanahan. Losing by 31 must have been so humiliating that they fired a coach who's won two Super Bowls. I fully expect Shanny to find work quickly, most likely as a cattle puncher on John Elway's ranch."

We all know the Colts' and Chargers' offenses will show up, but this game will be decided by the defense that can stop those potent offenses. And by "stop," I mean "hold to a field goal." You won't likely hear the words "three and out" mentioned often in this game, unless Peyton Manning reveals the details of another knee surgery. Manning has been unstoppable lately, even though opposing defenses know he's going to pass. Indianapolis wins, 34-31.

Baltimore @ Miami (+3)

What a difference a year makes. The Ravens and Dolphins, one year after recording 5-11 and 1-15 records, respectively, meet in a playoff matchup that no one could have foreseen, not Nostradamus on psychedelic mushrooms, not even the most optimistic of Raven or Dolphin fan. Miami clinched the East with a 24-17 win over the Jets in the Meadowlands, a win whose implications resounded loudly, resulting in the firing of Eric Mangini, and something even more shocking than Tru TV — more indecision as to the future of Brett Favre.

"Forget the Jets," says Joey Porter. "Eric Mangini is just another example of a Bill Belichick disciple who couldn't cut it in the big time. Obviously, Belichick's secret is film study. Apparently, Mangini, Romeo Crenel, and Charlie Weiss failed to recognize the importance of film, thus setting the stage for their failures. They didn't see the writing on the wall, nor did they see the video on the screen. And Favre? I've heard of the paparazzi chasing someone, but never of someone chasing the paparazzi. He's like Edward R. Murrow — a newshound."

"Our win is the biggest news in the AFC East, although the rumored engagement of Tom Brady to Giselle Bundchen was certainly newsworthy, but the next time Tom and Giselle are mentioned, it better be a story about an armed O.J. Simpson crashing their wedding reception and intercepting the garter belt. Now that's AFC East news."

Like the Dolphins, the Ravens, led by a new coach, John Harbaugh, rose from the bottom of their division to grab an unlikely playoff spot. Although Baltimore didn't win their division, they enter the playoffs as a formidable opponent for any team.

"I think we match up very well with the Dolphins," says Harbaugh. "Especially in the category of 'chest-thumping, outspoken linebacker,' although Porter's boastfulness makes Ray Lewis sound like Jerry Lewis."

"As a first-year head coach, like Tony Sparano, I understand the magnitude of our accomplishment. Unlike Sparano, though, I didn't feel the urge to celebrate it with a pasta dish, red wine, and indiscriminate sex. I just left out the pasta and wine. What's that? Tony Sparano and Tony Soprano are two different people?"

Of the four first-round matchups, the Ravens seem to be the visiting team most likely to win handily. I can't see Miami scoring more than 17 against Baltimore's defense, and the Ravens' offense should more than be able to cover that. Heck, the Dolphins gave up 31 to the Chiefs in Week 16. Baltimore wins, 27-13.

Philadelphia @ Minnesota (+2½)

Not since Dr. Victor Frankenstein marveled at his creation has the phrase "It's alive!" meant as much as it did than when the Eagles used the term to describe their playoff chances after the score in Tampa Bay's 31-24 upset loss to the Raiders came down. Needing a win over the Cowboys to secure their playoff spot, Philadelphia jumped on Dallas early and won easily, 44-6.

"There was a time when our playoff hopes were as slippery as Adrian Peterson's fingers," says Donovan McNabb, "or as unsure as my understanding of regular-season tie-breaking procedures. Now things are looking up. That's what a 44-6 victory will do for you. Offensively, we were sharp, and our defense has never been more opportunistic and active. And nothing build confidence like knowing you made Tony Romo collapse in the shower. I'm sure he fumbled the soap first. I guess he was 'Texas Petered Out.' I bet Jessica Simpson's already planning a remake of Billy Idol's 'Catch My Fall.'"

"Anyway, you can't speak of Dr. Frankenstein without then mentioning Dallas owner Jerry Jones, who has created a monster of his own in Dallas by forming a team whose talent is exceeded only by its ability to deflect blame. Jones has reiterated for the 20th time this year that Wade Phillips will return as head coach. It's a lie! There are 10,000 torch-bearing Dallas fans who have paid $100,000 for a personal seat license who feel otherwise. There's only one solution for the turmoil in Dallas, and that's to put Jason Witten's brain in Terrell Owens' body. That would be a monster Romo could love for its body and mind."

Ryan Longwell's 50-yard field goal with five seconds left gave the Vikings a 20-19 win over the Giants and the NFC North title. The victory capped a roller coaster season that featured an 0-2 start, a quarterback change, an illegal substance scandal that almost cost the team its two best defenders, and a 6-2 finish to the year.

"This team's seen it all," says Brad Childress. "Or at least those players who were lucky enough to have 'it' thrown in their face on the infamous Lake Minnetonka sex cruise. Obviously, the Vikings have found success on the water, and Adrian Peterson gives us a huge threat on the ground. Now all we need for a long playoff run is a consistent threat via the air. We're hoping Tarvaris Jackson can take us on at least a three-city 'Victory Tour.'"

Do you think the Vikings would be happier hosting the Bucs or Cowboys, two teams that, had they made the playoffs, would have done so with limited momentum? Instead, Minnesota drew the Eagles, who look very dangerous. McNabb is a playoff-tested quarterback, and should find success downfield. And Bryan Westbrook will create matchup problems for the Vikings, as long as he stays away from the middle of the defensive line. Defensively, the Eagles will look to cause turnovers, and with Peterson and Jackson fumbling problems, it looks like there will be opportunities for big defensive returns. Philadelphia wins, 24-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:51 AM | Comments (5)

The Ballad of Cadillac Williams

It's not the least because I'm a Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan, nor because it was so important to the Buccaneers (needing a victory to have a chance at the playoffs), but last Sunday's game against the was Raiders one of those games that come along every few years that will stay with me forever.

Not because it was a great game, though it was, and not because it sucked me in on an immersive level that few games, even important games involving my favorite teams, do.

It's a game that will stay with me because it is a game that taught me something, taught me something important.

I've complained in this space before about how insipid announcers will solemnly remind the viewers that "we must remember that this is only a game," during one of those dark moments pass when an immobilized player is carted off the field with a life-changing, critical injury.

For one, no one needs to be reminded of this, particularly during a moment like that. They're actually disrespecting the gravity of the situation by stating the obvious.

Also, it's also "only a game" on plays where no one suffers a spinal injury. Why don't they tell us then?

Cadillac Williams has been fortunate to never suffer that sort of hold-your-breath-and-pray-for-him injury. But he certainly knows the level of injury just below that.

During his 2005 Rookie of the Year campaign, my colleague Brad Oremland presciently warned about the heavy workload he was getting and how it might cut his career short.

Sure enough, early last year, Williams tore the patellar tendon of his right knee. He was out for the season and it looked quite possible that his career was over.

The Buccaneers soldiered on without him, replacing him with Earnest Graham (whom this year suffered a season-ending injury on November 16th). Doctors doubted Williams would regain a level of strength sufficient to play in the NFL again.

But after being out of action 15 months, Cadillac returned just in time to spell Graham.

Even the most serious of injuries that football players bounce back from usually top out at about a year. Any longer than that and the injury is effectively career-ending.

But not for Cadillac. He returned 100% and started showing flashes of his old brilliance right away.

No more was that true than in this must-win game for the Buccaneers. He already had 16 touches for 87 yards and two of the Buccaneers' three touchdowns with 9:44 remaining in the fourth quarter. At the time, the Bucs were clinging to a 24-21 lead.

With 1st-and-10 on their own 33-yard line, Jeff Garcia handed off to Williams. He tried to break through the left side of the line, found nothing, and in a burst of fury, determination, and imagination, he reversed field and broke right, cutting a diagonal line across the field. He was finally brought down 28 yards later, and left clutching his left knee on the sideline.

In a twist of fate that gave the moment the ultimate poignancy, CBS microphones were on the same sideline, right by Cadillac.

He emoted pain in shocked gasps, both shrill and hoarse. "Aaah! Aaah! Aaah! S**t! S**t! Aaah! Are you f**cking kidding me? Are you f**cking kidding me?! Aaaaahhhh! Get the *f**k away from me! S**t!

He knew. He understood. He knew this feeling, this snap, this pain, from before. Fifteen grueling months of rehab was still writ large in the rearview mirror, and now, as he lay on the turf, he knew he was either going to have to do it all over again, all of it, or give up on his dream and become a footnote. A trivia question: what 2005 Rookie of the year retired just three years later after suffering his second serious knee injury in two years?

I have heard tons of cursing picked up by the sideline microphones in football, and we all know it's standard operating procedure for the announcers to acknowledge it and apologize for it.

Not this time. This time, they did not disrespect the gravity of an injury. The announcers said nothing, only listened.

So did I. Half an hour later, as the Buccaneers shuffled to the locker room, defeated and their season over, I learned that it isn't just a game after all. Not for the players lucky enough to play it and be able to walk off the field, nor those, like Williams, not as lucky.

Epilogue, courtesy of the AP:

[Williams] said that unlike last season when the patellar tendon in his right knee was ruptured, the tendon pulled away from the bone this time and should be simpler to repair and require less recovery time.

"This process should be much easier," Williams said, adding that former Tampa Bay teammate and current Carolina kick returner Mark Jones suffered a similar injury when he was with the Bucs.

"After six, eight weeks he was rolling, so right now I'm just hoping for the best and hoping that's it."

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:39 AM | Comments (1)