In the Rotation: NBA Week 4

There are a lot of talents a person can have in life. Some of which can benefit you greatly in day-to-day affairs. Others are completely useless when it comes to getting ahead in life.

One of my "talents" in life is being able to pick an obscure quote from a random movie and apply it to real life situations. Trust me; it falls into the "completely useless" category when it comes to my day-to-day affairs.

Nonetheless, the one random movie quote that I couldn't shake after the New York Knicks made their big roster shakeup on Friday (in case you missed it, here is a summary of the moves the Knicks made) comes from one of the greatest characters in one of the greatest movies of all time, Walter Sobchak in "The Big Lebowski":

"This guy 'freaking' walks. I've never been more certain of anything in my life."

Allow me to explain.

The Knicks trade this week was basically a salary dump in order to clear up cap space for the summer of 2010, and Mike D'Antoni said as much. The Knicks became the second team in the last two weeks to clear up a ton of salary cap space (the Pistons being the first when Allen Iverson comes off the books after this season) in the hopes of landing a superstar roughly 560 days from now.

With their trades, the Knicks became one of 15 NBA teams that has less that $40 million committed to players through the 2010 season. $40 million is somewhat of a benchmark number because it means that these teams will have enough room under the salary cap to be able to give a player a max contract.

So what does any of this have to do with "The Big Lebowski?"

Well, all of these 15 teams with money to spend that offseason seem to be operating under the impression that "these guys will 'freaking' walk (actually hit the open market)" and are clearing up cap space accordingly.

Unfortunately, most of these GMs must have stopped the movie at that point, because the Big Lebowski is, in fact, crippled, and cannot walk. Walter Sobchak was dead wrong.

And so are all of these NBA teams that think that the summer of 2010 is going to be filled with an endless supply of superstars begging to come play for their team.

Yes, in theory, the 2010 free agent class could very well be the deepest in the history of the NBA. But it's not like we haven't heard this before. Lest we forget the 2006 free agent class that was supposed to be chalk full of superstars.

Instead of it being a free-for-all on the open market, all of the top players ended up being re-signed by their original team, with only three superstars even testing the waters — Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Chauncey Billups — and they all re-signed with their original team.

Hey, it's always a good idea to have a plan in place. However, recent history tells us that there will be a good 13 teams or so that wish they had never even planned so far ahead because they are going to end up with a boat load of money in their pockets and no talent on the floor to show for it.

I've never been more certain of anything in my life.

In today's starting five, I'll take a look at the top of the potential 2010 free agent class and see who, if anyone, is likely to change addresses for the 2010-11 NBA season.

Starting Five

1. LeBron James

Chances he plays somewhere other than Cleveland: 50%.

I don't think LeBron even knows what the future holds for him, so I'm not going to begin to guess what's going to happen here. But I will say this; Cleveland has made efforts to get better and build around James in each of the King's six first seasons, and once again have the pieces in place to compete in the East. They will surely play that loyalty card when they get first crack at James when his contract expires.

LeBron has taken a far less talented team than the one he has now to the NBA Finals, and it's a pretty safe bet that he'll return there in one of the two seasons he has left in Cleveland.

If the Cavs finish with two more close-but-no-cigar seasons, it's hard to imagine James bolting for the bright lights and rebuilding that is New York with so much unfinished business left in his own backyard.

2. Dwyane Wade

Chances he plays somewhere other than Miami: 35%

Wade has been to the highest of the highs with the Heat, leading them to their first and only NBA title in 2006. He's also been there for the lowest of the lows; last season's 15 wins was tied for the worst in franchise history, matched only by the 15 wins the Heat had in their inaugural season back in 1989.

Now, the Heat has begun the rebuilding process with Wade as the centerpiece. They hit the lottery, which was good enough to land them rookie standout Michael Beasley, and have some nice young talent to surround the two.

The Heat still have a long way to go to reach the pinnacle once again, but they're taking steps in the right direction. If Wade had the option to opt out after this season instead of next, I'd say the percentage would be much higher. But if the Heat continue to show as much improvement over the remainder of this season and into next as they have so far, it's hard to believe that Wade would leave this franchise just as things were getting turned back around.

A lot of what happens here depends on whether the Heat can continue to get better, but with Wade and Beasley at the core of things, it's a safe bet that they will.

3. Amare Stoudemire

Chances he plays somewhere other than Phoenix: 50%

Amare might be the only player on this list that I wouldn't be shocked if he changed teams. Though the Suns are playing great basketball to start this season, their window for championships is closing and closing fast.

They already wasted most of Steve Nash's prime with a gimmick system that was better suited for maximizing Steve Nash as opposed to maximizing team success, and now father time is creeping up on the Suns faster than Usain Bolt.

Nash looks both a step slow and a bit confused by the offense, Shaq has officially entered the "Old Shaq" part of his career (be careful not to confuse the context of "Old Shaq" here; I mean "old" as in Larry King "old," not "old" as in "I miss the old Shaq" old), and Grant Hill is on his farewell tour.

The Suns' hot start has proven that they are indeed going to be a threat out West, but it's hard to believe that there is much of a threat level to be worried about from this team two years from now. Rebuilding is on the horizon, and you can't blame STAT for wanting to seek greener pastures as opposed to waiting for the Suns to build around him.

4. Chris Bosh

Chances he plays somewhere other than Toronto: 5%

Chris Bosh isn't going anywhere. He's the face of this franchise. The fans love him, his teammates and coaches love him, and GM Bryan Colangelo is not an idiot. He's twice won the "Executive of the Year" award, and you don't win awards like that by letting your best players leave town.

The Raptors aren't quite contenders in the East just yet, but the paint is barely dry in Colangelo's office. He's already revamped this roster almost completely and has Toronto as a threat to win night in and night out. Given another season and a half I fully expect the Raptors to become legit contenders in the East, and that should be good enough to keep CB4 where he belongs.

5. Joe Johnson

Chances he plays somewhere other than Atlanta: 50%

Chances that Atlanta botches this situation somehow and screws over the franchise: 95%.

If you haven't seen Johnson play yet this year, you are doing yourself a disservice. He has evolved into easily one of the 10 best players in the NBA. The Hawks have a young core with a ton of talent and even more potential. They, over any team in the league, have the potential be make the biggest leap of any team this season.

Alas, they're still the Hawks, and there is no doubt that they'll find a way to screw this up. I'm not even sure how they'll do it yet, but this is the same team that passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams for Marvin Williams and Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay for Sheldon Williams, so clearly they have a history of poor decision making.

The Hawks should break the bank and do everything in their power to keep Johnson around for as long as possible. What they will do, however, is anybody's guess.

In the Rotation

Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Manu Ginobili, Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Shaq

These guys are the ones who make the free agent class of 2010 interesting. Each of these players has at least two things in common: they'll be unrestricted free agents in 2010, and they'll all be one time superstars past their prime.

Every player on this list will be in their 30s, have a ton of mileage on them, and/or will have some sort of nagging injury that has bothered them in recent years.

That could lead to $15 million question that offseason: how much is an aging superstar worth?

Surely, the guys in the starting five will all be maxed out, but what about these players? How much is a 36-year-old Steve Nash worth to a desperate team? Will someone grossly overpay for a 30-year-old Yao?

My guess is that all of the teams that have put aside tons of money for the top tier of this list are going to end up with pretty disappointed fan bases when LeBron and Wade suddenly aren't available. That will most likely lead to throwing a ton of money at an aging star just to save face.

That in turn will lead to a series of horrendous contracts for over-the-hill players that could in turn cripple these teams worse than if they hadn't given up on the '09 and '10 seasons in the first place.

Horrendous contracts lead to nonsensical trades (see Camby, Marcus), which means that by 2012 there will be several teams dumping washed up players with huge contracts in order to start the rebuilding process all over again.

That's right, teams that are stashing money away for the rainy day that is the summer of 2010 could very easily find themselves in the exact situation that they are in right now five years from now, when the star-studded draft class of 2008 hits the open market for the first time in approximately 2013, with no title to show for it.

The NBA, where front office inaptitude, happens.

Out of the Rotation

Los Angeles Clippers

Maybe someone out there can explain to me what direction the Clippers are going. They brought in Baron Davis this offseason, then surrounded him with big and slow players (Marcus Camby and Zach Randolph), basically minimizing what Davis does best: make plays in the open floor.

The Clippers got off to a 2-11 start then decided that it'd be a good idea to take on a head case with a crippling contract to right the ship. And we thought Elgin Baylor was terrible at his job.

There's a reason that this team has advanced to the second round of the playoffs once in the 24 years that they've been in L.A., and we're seeing it play out in front of us again as they are about five months away from making that once in 25 years.

Inactive List

Mark Cuban

Love him or hate him, Mark Cuban has been good for the league since he bought the Mavericks back in 2000. His antics have been both cringeworthy and amusing at the same time, but everything he's done has been out of his unquestionable love for his franchise, and you can't fault the guy for that.

However, Cuban's latest trip to the front page has certainly been cringe-worthy, but far from amusing. Last week, the SEC filed a civil suit against Cuban alleging insider trading in the shares of Mamma.com.

It is just a civil suit for now, which would hardly dent the $2.6 billion that Cuban has accumulated, but Martha Stewart's case started as a civil suit too.

Cuban has been writing checks with his mouth ever since he came into the league, but if these recent allegations result in any sort of jail time, David Stern will no doubt use that as leverage to rid himself of the biggest thorn in his omnipotent paw.

It'd be a shame if the NBA lost Cuban for good over something like this, but as we could soon find out, all the money in the world can't save you when the SEC comes knocking.

Be sure to check back at Sports Central every Monday to see who cracks Scott Shepherd's rotation as he breaks down what is going on around the NBA.